Quiz: Did This Happen In Russia Or A Democratic Country?

This quiz does not, of course, prove that there’s no fraud in Russian election. However, it does caution us to take overly simple methods and bold conclusions with a pinch of salt.

In particular – due to the influence of populous sub-groups with their own particular voting patterns – a fair election need NOT have a Gaussian on a graph of turnout with voting share for a particular party. In the US, African-Americans overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party and its candidate; this explains the spikes Obama gets close to the 100% mark. The Detroit and Washington DC results are skewed in particular because they are predominantly African-American cities, plus the former hosts the automobile industries bailed out under the Obama administration.

Likewise, the share of votes for one party having a positive correlation with turnout is not indicative of fraud either. If that were the case, not only British elections would have to be considered rigged, but also those of Germany and Israel.

Now as blog readers will know from previous posts, I do think there is substantial election fraud in Russia: Around 5-7% in the 2011 Duma elections, and 3-4% in the recent Presidential ones. (This far more resembles someplace like Italy in the 1950’s than the US today where I very much doubt fraud is higher than 1%). However, the indicators I used to reach these figures are far more varied and nuanced than the flagrant statistical misuse that the far higher fraud figures like 10%+ are based on.

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  • Andor

    I got 50% right)) What does it about the elections statistically? ))))))