Open Thread #1

Posted on by

This Open Thread is permanently glued to the front page. Feel free to step in here to comment on current affairs or ask me stuff (unless this involves Russia in which case do it here at Da Russophile), recount interesting anecdotes, etc.

From now on all off-topic comments should be posted here, as I will no longer hesitate about deleting them from other posts.

52 thoughts on “Open Thread #1”

  2. What do you think will be the spark that will initiate Russia’s internal collapse and fragmentation along ethnic lines?

    AK: I do not believe there will be any such spark. Also please read the text to this very short post: “Feel free to step in here to comment on current affairs or ask me stuff (unless this involves Russia in which case do it here at Da Russophile).“

  3. It’s 3 am. You are woken up by a sound downstairs and think “It’s just the cat” before it dawns on you that you don’t actually have a cat. One of two scenarios applies:

    Scenario one: You live in a big city where people aren’t allowed to own guns, but if you call 911 the police will arrive within five minutes.

    Scenario two: You live in a rural area, with the sheriff at least 20 minutes away if you call 911, but you have a 12-gauge loaded with buckshot next to your bed.

    Which scenario would you prefer?

    • Scenario One. I will have a gun anyway. :)

      Well, unless I’m outside the US. Or if I take your scenarios literally. In that case, Scenario 2. Though to be honest I would try to avoid confrontation to the maximum extent feasible. Maybe I’m being beta here but I’d prefer to get robbed of a few hi-tech expensive possessions than risk my life facing down a possibly armed robber.

  4. Ak, would you write something on Chinese yuan becoming a dominate global reserve currency?

    It will be very interesting read. How could Chinese yuan becoming global reserve currency, and what does a nation need to posses in order to have its currency to become dominate world wide?

    You know, the USA is cheating in many ways using dollar, printing trillions out of thin air.

    Thank you.

    • Maybe, but it’s not something I have a lot of knowledge about. It is not a phenomenon I’ve studied to any depth.

      I am however quite convinced that within as little as a decade the world will go from one dominated by the dollar to one with a variety of currencies or some kind of World Bank issued SDR.

  5. I remember couple years ago reading your posts in sublimeoblivion website, you were writing something about a book publishing. Did you publish? Or how it goes in that direction?

  6. What source do you use that you consider the most reliable that rates the national IQ of each country?

    • The ones given in Lynn’s new book “Intelligence”; Rinderman’s calculations; and my own. Please don’t ask me to provide links and stuff because I will have a proper post on that soon enough.

  7. I posted this on your other blog but did not get a reply so I will reposted it here.

    What do you think of George Friedmans assessment of the next 100 years? (published in (2008)

  8. Anatoly: as a devout Russophile, I would personally like to know what chance, if any, there is that Belarus, Ukraine, and possibly Kazakhstan will fully rejoin Russia in a union. I know that there were talks for Belarus to join some ‘Union State’ (though I don’t think anything came of that). Perhaps with a pro-Russia man now in power in Kiev, Ukraine will tilt more Russian?? And, back to my main point, will full fledged political unification ever happen?

    I’m eager to hear what you have to say (I must admit that my knowledge of the inner workings of the politics of ex-Soviet states is mediocre, at best…and I don’t speak Russian!)

    • A “full fledged political unification”? Less than 1% chance in the foreseeable future. It’s basically not on the menu. Ukrainians don’t want it. Hell, Russians want it even less. :lol:

      What is realistic:
      (1) A customs union and common economic space. Already in effect between Belarus and Kazakhstan.
      (2) Russia and Belarus *may* merge into one state but it not happening under Lukashenko. That said they are very tightly integrated.
      (3) Kazakhstan is economically integrated but not politically and will not become so in the foreseeable future.
      (4) Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan want to have open borders but Russia not so much (because of immigrants).
      (5) Ukraine is split with opinion roughly 50/50 on whether to join a Eurasian Union or the EU. I would say that the Eurasian Union is the likelier longterm choice because (a) its numbers of supporters are slightly higher and (b) the future of the EU itself is increasingly uncertain. However, there is very little desire (c.20%) for Ukraine and Russia to actually become one state.

  10. Will you be commenting on the Pussy Riot verdict on this or your other blog with a ludicrous 2 year prison sentence?

    Putin’s a fucking idiot with this latest incident being the least bad thing attributed to him during his rule that is just the tip off the iceberg of things to come.

    Burn baby Burn. Bye, Bye Russia nice knowing you.

  11. AK
    What is your take about India backing out of the PISA 2012, i think this is the first time some thing like that happen. Did you wonder why no nationwide IQ studies of India was carried out, maybe Indian upperclass know their people better than you think.

  12. The Indian govt knows that 75% of the population is low IQ and gets affirmative action quota
    Any PISA type exam will reveal the extent of the lower IQ segment. India does and will participate in all higher IQ tests like Math Olympiad, where India stood #11, and this draws people from the 25% upper castes
    The PISA is also a reflection of the mismanagement of the public – lower caste – education system
    and they want to hide it

    • rec1man,

      The last time I checked, India wasn’t just composed of the top 20% of the population. The other 80% exist. Like every where else on the planet, the development of the country will depend on the well being and productivity of its average citizen. The development of every Indian — not just the cream of the crop — should be a concern for you.

      • The bottom 80% exist and they vote their caste bloc interests and India grows by the private sector, DESPITE the Indian govt. India has 49% affirmative action quota in North India and 69% quota in South India. Politicians get elected and re-elected due to caste and religion emotions despite being guilty of massive $$ billions of corruption.

        The formula often used is low caste + muslim
        Low caste leaders get freedom to loot the treasury and muslims get freedom to riot and do low level jihad. Last week in Mumbai they rioted over Myanmar muslims and even molested female cops and no one has been arrested due to vote-bank

        The top 20% has no voting power. and shunted out by quota, except of course when they want a nuke or a space rocket or an Olympiad medal

        By trickle down, the poor are getting to lower middle class and going to private
        schools. In Bangalore, and Mumbai, most govt schools are boycotted even by the poor. Once the kids get out of govt school and into even low grade private schools, there is a significant improvement in teaching

  13. Is the book next to Chateau Julien bottle in your blog’s header image “The Rules of the Game” by Neil Strauss?

  14. AK, I know you’re busy writing on the Pussy Riot case and maybe the article will include something on The Guardian’s reporting on it. If not and you’re planning to write something separately on The Guardian and its falling standards eventually, I just found this Electronic Intifada article, on The Guardian’s hiring of Josh Trevino to its editorial team, that should interest you. There was such a backlash when this news became public that he was demoted to blogger freelance columnist. You may like to refer to these links as well:
    http://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/dishonesty-deepens-guardian-demotes-joshua-trevino-hopes-we-wont-notice
    http://azvsas.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/the-guardian-hires-racist-sack-of.html

    You’d think The Guardian would have done some background research on Trevino and realised that hiring him would be a hugely embarrassing and damaging blunder.

    • I’m aware of this. I’ve no intention of joining the PC lynch mob, but The Guardian’s dishonesty in its denials was noted.

  15. An Oxford Professor has caused a bit of a stir by arguing the moral/ethical case for designer babies. Most of the respondents in the Telegraph poll are against (72.38% when I checked).

    “Surely trying to ensure that your children have the best, or a good enough, opportunity for a great life is responsible parenting?” wrote Prof Savulescu, the Uehiro Professor in practical ethics.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/9480372/Genetically-engineering-ethical-babies-is-a-moral-obligation-says-Oxford-professor.html

    “Modern eugenics, from testing for diseases to deciding whether you want a girl or boy, is voluntary. So where genetic selection aims to bring out a trait that clearly benefits an individual and society, we should allow parents the choice. To do otherwise is to consign those who come after us to the ball and chain of our squeamishness and irrationality.

    Indeed, when it comes to screening out personality flaws, such as potential alcoholism, psychopathy and dispositions to violence, you could argue that people have a moral obligation to select ethically better children. They are, after all, less likely to harm themselves and others. That doesn’t necessarily imply that people should be coerced into making a choice, but we should encourage them.

    http://www.readersdigest.co.uk/magazine/readers-digest-main/the-maverick-its-our-duty-to-have-designer-babies

  17. AK,

    I just noted a small error in the right-hand column on your front page: Under “41: Limits to Growth”, you’ve got “Questing Everything” which is the link to Question Everything. You can delete this comment once you’ve fixed the error. No need to hurry!

  18. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9426205/Cannabis-smoking-permanently-lowers-IQ.html

    “Researchers found persistent users of the drug, who started smoking it at school, had lower IQ scores as adults.
    They were also significantly more likely to have attention and memory problems in later life, than their peers who abstained.
    Furthermore, those who started as teenagers and used it heavily, but quit as adults, did not regain their full mental powers, found academics at King’s College London and Duke University in the US.”

    “…“persistent users” who started as teenagers suffered a drop of eight IQ points at the age of 38, compared to when they were 13.”

    “…Quitting or reducing cannabis use did not appear to fully restore intellectual functioning among adolescent-onset former persistent cannabis users,”

    A couple of points:

    1. This agrees with public stereotypes.
    2. I’ve always been skeptical about the idea that Islam makes people less intelligent than they would have bee otherwise. If any culture could possibly have that effect, then surely liberalism is it. 8 freaking points. For what share of the population? A quarter? A third? And that’s JUST pot. All the other drugs must be having their effects too.

    • (1) Persistent users meant those who used it during at least three of the ages from 18 to 38, and who said at each occasion they were smoking it on at least four days a week.

      That is extreme. I know literally just one person who (used to) smoke that much shit.

      (2) The cognitive abilities of the 10 per cent of people who started in their 20s – who could loosely be classed as college smokers – also suffered while they were still smoking.
      However, if they gave up at least a year before their IQ test at 38, their intelligence recovered, suggesting their brains were more resilient and bounced back.

      Many people do some occasional pot at college (i.e. are NOT “persistent users”), then drop it well before they reach the age of 38.

      (3) I am absolute certain that alcoholism has a much worse effect. Certainly binge vodka drinking it will wreck your IQ by much, much more than 8 points.

      • “I am absolute certain that alcoholism has a much worse effect.”

        I strongly suspect that it doesn’t, not on IQ. There have been many examples of brilliant drunks. My favorite author of all time, Kinglsey Amis, drank heavily all his life. He wrote amazing books into his 70s. The recently deceased Hitch. A million other examples. Vysotsky was a brilliant drunk. I could go on and on. I’m not saying it doesn’t kill millions, I’m just saying that it doesn’t appear to burn out people’s brains permanently.

        In Spanish drugs are sometimes called “estupefacientes”. If I’m clicking through cable channels and see Spanish language news, I sometimes hear them talk about “el trafico de estupefacientes.” I can’t think at the moment of any language in which booze is called anything of this sort.

      • Ah thanks Ken for reminding me of this.

        @Glossy,
        This picture says more words than I can be bothered to. :)

        Does marijuana produce anything remotely similar, even when heavily consumed. I really, really doubt it.

        • Several questions come to mind in looking at these pictures:

          (i) How are “Normal” and “Alcoholic” defined?
          (ii) Are these brain scans of two individuals 43 years old, one “normal” and the other “alcoholic”, or composites of the brain scans of 43 year olds who (left picture) are “normal” and (right picture) “alcoholic”?
          (iii) What is the variation in the brain scans of individuals who are categorized as “normal” and as “alcoholic”? To put it another way, are there individuals in the “normal” class who have worse brain scans than individuals in the “alcoholic” class?
          (iv) Are other factors, such as class or culture, and type of occupation, controlled for?
          (v) What would he comparison look like at age 33, or 53,or 63?

  21. RE: the “cannabis” study.
    The reason that “This agrees with public stereotypes.” is because the data presented was cherry picked, & the study itself is pretty dubious. It focused on a small group of juvenile repeat offenders/problem kids, & apparently there is a lot a problems with what was included or excluded in as causation factors.
    It also found that it had no effect on IQ formation in over 18 year olds.

    All pretty much meaningless, & probably can be summarised as:- groups of poor, extreme problem juveniles between the ages of 13-18, who smoke vast amounts of marijuana, don’t study, spend most of there time engaging in anti-social behaviour, generally in a gang-type situation, & who generally take any kind of drug they can get there hands on, get even dumber than they started by the time they reach adulthood.

    • “The reason that “This agrees with public stereotypes.” is because the data presented was cherry picked…”

      If the data was indeed cherry-picked in Unz-like fashion and the results were misleading, then these results would DISAGREE with public stereotypes. Public stereotypes are folk wisdom. Folk wisdom may sometimes be wrong about physical phenomena irrelevant to human survival (which celestial body revolves around which, for example), but to my knowledge folk wisdom has never been known to be wrong in generalizing about people. Public stereotypes, aka folk wisdom, are the golden standard of accuracy in anything sociological. Public stereotypes say that pot permanently makes people dumber.

      Another way to be sure of the conclusion: if pot were harmless, why would leftists promote it so fervently? Do leftists generally wish young people well?

  22. Hpefully this doesn’t fall under promotion, but the Onion has been on a real roll lately, justly deserving their title of “America’s Finest News Source”, & I couldn’t resist sharing.

    For anyone who has missed them, here are some of the more recent gems on the pressing issues of the day in the US:

    DNC – Democrats
    http://www.theonion.com/articles/obama-help-us-destroy-jesus-and-start-a-new-age-of,29478/
    http://www.theonion.com/articles/dnc-lacking-same-delusional-magic-it-had-in-2008,29431/
    http://www.theonion.com/articles/obama-makes-it-through-another-day-of-resisting-ur,20364/

    RNC – Republicans
    http://www.theonion.com/articles/gay-marine-beaten-to-bloody-pulp-to-fire-up-rnc-cr,29352/
    http://www.theonion.com/articles/things-that-shouldnt-be-said-in-modern-society-to,29336/

    http://www.theonion.com/video/tea-party-quiet-too-quiet,28613/
    http://www.theonion.com/video/tampa-bay-gay-prostitutes-gearing-up-for-flood-of,29263/
    http://www.theonion.com/video/gop-trying-to-keep-elderly-voting-base-alive-until,29073/

    American Life
    http://www.theonion.com/articles/americans-take-day-off-from-looking-for-work,29420/
    http://www.theonion.com/articles/supreme-courts-new-agent-already-getting-them-bett,29456/
    http://www.theonion.com/video/what-is-your-amateur-porn-telling-employers-about,29438/

  25. What do you think about 3D printing?

    I think when technology in the field advances to a point where complex machine parts can be reproduced cheaper and more effectively than manual labour for manufacturing this will have the biggest impact in the course of social and economic developments in the future.

  26. Hi, it’s very nice to see the distinction you make of race realism from racism. Before seeing your post I just felt guilty because I felt I was just a racist for some ideas I have, which goes against my values. But now I see that I’m not a racist, just a race realist. Since I know basic probability and statistical theory and I know some numbers (of race average IQs for example), and I have a scientific background (currently taking Physics bachelor), I never accepted the mainstream theory that the “average” social differences between races (or more correctly, the difference in the social condition between the average individual of the race X and race Y, using income like the metric of social condition for example) that is seen in Europe and USA are just because of the social system’s problems in leading with minorities.
    And it’s about this subject that I want to ask you a question, since you seem to know much more about this than I do: how do you think the changing of demographics because of the immigration from Africa and the Middle East, that is happening in many European countries, will affect European’s society? And what about in USA?

  27. Privet,

    I am coming from the article “Russian’s demography Continue to Improve Rapidly”. My question is focused on Lativa. You made a respond to the comment regarding Lativa’s population. However in that same comment, rkka made this comment:

    “Precisely, though it might not be just about Russians. In 1992, Latvia had a growing population of almost 2.7 million and zero foreign debt.

    In 2012, there are now 2 million people in Latvia, yearly deaths exceed births there by 1.55 to 1, one tenth of one percent of the Latvian population emigrates *per month*, and Latvia pays about 1/3 of the Latvian GDP to service her foreign debt.”

    It’s just mind-boggling to read of foreign debt. If external debt was nonexistent in 1992, then how did it manage to acquire such a debt in a span of ten years? I cannot find articles or journal on this issue. I hope you can answer this question with sources as well.

  30. commenting on Noam Chomsky’s article on capitalism being a dichotomy of environmental concern, where he refers to John Dewey, I wrote below before the Chomsky piece was published on 03/06/2013 at alternet.org site. It is indeed touching upon what is the deeper layer of the environmental problem as in it’s triangular relationship with what I call the ‘facultatis cluster worldwide’ and ‘the general public’.

    here is my harsher version:

    ‘I question the human potential consolidation taking place within a fraction of the world population, a sub-group disposed of confinement by territorial borders and possessing ampler relative time-constraints then historically.

    Sociobiology suggesting evolutionism within the organizing of society has made a cluster of humans singularly distinct.

    Pitching the bulk of human numbers with few noteworthy distinctions in their levels of organizing, fractional and passive as compared to the facultatis cluster and in the confrontation with the needs of the planet, the outcome of interests seems probable.

    What history tells us, what the sciences explore, what a larger body of accessible knowledge shows to the potential-rich, and hides beyond comprehension for most of humanity, is that human bulk is going to be the trade-off.

    With all reservations as to the sufficiency of human potential harnessed, in today’s frame of the movie on reality, human potential and it’s beholders figure as the strongest implicit determinator to whatever outcome.

    Planet solved, humanity transcended, there is many a scenario in the writing, none so obvious as along the lines of above.

    m. 02/03/2013

  31. Interesting study by UN that vindicates much of what you have been saying about investments in health & education as being the necessary ingredient in improving countries growth.
    Also headlines that the biggest story in eradicating absolute poverty & improving third world conditions has been the growth of global south to south trade.

    United Nation’s Human Development Report 2013
    summary here: http://hdr.undp.org/hdr4press/press/report/summaries/HDR2013_EN_Summary.pdf
    full report here: http://hdr.undp.org/hdr4press/press/report/index.html

    (Hat-tip to The Rational Pessimist where I found the link initially, a blog well worth checking out:
    http://therationalpessimist.com/ )

Comments are closed.