Mid-Year Demography Update

Currently writing an article on Pussy Riot, but in the meantime, data on the demographic situation as of mid-2011.

Jan-Jul


/ 1000 people for entirery of 2011

thousands

/ 1000 people

2012

2011

increase

2012

2011

2012 relative to 2011 (%)

Births

905,7

842,6

+63,1

12,7

11,9

106,7

12,6

Deaths

962,7

981,4

-18,7

13,5

13,9

97,1

13,5

Of which children <1 years of age

7,8

6,3

+1,5

8,5

7,1

119,7

7,4

Natural decrease

-57,0

-138,8

-0,8

-2,0

40,0

-0,9

In short, strong improvements all round. There is however one problem, and those are migration trends.

In particular, emigration has been rising fast from very low levels since December 2011, and has since plateaued at a monthly 10,000 by March 2012 (when Putin was reelected). The narrative of massive Russian emigration was a myth but perhaps that is no longer the case? Doubt it. Most of the increase in emigrants accrued to the Near Abroad, from 9,000 in 2011 to 44,000 in 2012. I doubt Uzbeks are going back to Karimov in protest against Putin. 🙂 The number of emigrants to the Far Abroad increased much more modestly from 6,000 to 11,000 during the first six months of 2011 and 2012, respectively. The number of emigrants to the US and Canada increased only modestly, while the outflow to Germany and Israel actually fell. In fact in that category most of the increase accrued to China and Georgia who have long provided Russia with net migrants. So hard to make a case that it is ethnic Russian professionals are are now fleeing Putin in massively greater numbers. For the most part, I think the figures now just better reflect cross-border population flows.