Five Myths about the Crimean Referendum

As voting gets underway – and by all accounts, it seems to be overwhelmingly heading for the pro-secession choice – it’s worthwhile to dispel four common but erroneous beliefs about it. (1) The referendum is unconstitutional. This is true enough, as all of Ukraine would have to vote on it. But there is one big […]

Translation: Hurrah for the Bourgeois Candidate!

In Komsomolskaya Pravda, Andrei Ryabtsev notes a close correlation between average housing prices and Navalny’s vote share in Moscow’s districts – and tries to find out why that might be the case. Why did they vote for Navalny in the centre, and for Sobyanin in the dormitory suburbs? The election results for Moscow’s mayor have […]

Were the 2013 Moscow Elections falsified?

1. The CEC results Here they are. The turnout was 32%. Sergey Sobyanin – 51.37% Alexei Navalny – 27.24% Ivan Melnikov – 10.69% Sergey Mitrokhin – 3.51% Mikhail Degtyaryov – 2.86% Nikolai Levichev – 2.79% Invalid ballots – 1.53% 2. Pre-elections opinion polls: Navalny’s support – among those who indicated a clear preference for one candidate or another – rose from […]

Moscow Exit Polls: Sobyanin ~50%, Navalny ~30%

According to a roundup of all the major exit polls by Kommersant, it appears that although Navalny’s performance was massively better than expected, Acting Mayor Sobyanin still managed to avoid a second tour. Exit Polls are Pubished  for the Moscow Elections In Moscow, voting has finished for the new Mayor. According to exit polls carried […]

OPEN DISCUSSION: The Moscow Elections, 2013

A couple of polls to provide the fodder for the subsequent discussions. Feel free to provide an exact figure (to one decimal place) for Navalny’s percentage share in the comments and we can have a little competition along the lines of the one we had for the Presidential elections. Background – Sobyanin vs. Navalny in Figures (July 23 […]

Translation: Going on the Campaign Trail with Navalny

According to gazeta.ru’s Olga Kuzmenkova tagging him, Navalny has a popular style and likes asking resonant questions, such as why Russia, despite its petrodollars, only builds as many railways in a year as China does in a week. “Where are my factories? Where is my Cosmos?” “Gazeta.Ru” observed Alexei Navalny as he went about meeting Zelenograd […]

Translation: Did Navalny Fail to Reach an “Understanding”?

Izvestia’s Sergey Podosenov queries political experts as to why a new case has been launched against Navalny. The concensus is that he is becoming too popular, or violated informal understandings. Navalny Violated Informal Arrangements “Izvestia” sources talk about the background of the Prosecutor General Office attack upon the opposition leader. Vladimir Zhirinovsky is known to […]

Translation: The 35 Cyber-Friends of Navalny

35 CEO’s of Russian Internet companies have signed a public letter supporting Navalny in return for his promise to ensure accountability and the rule of law. Navalny’s 35 Friends Small businesses get involved in politics. Thirty-five representatives of Internet businesses are to speak publicly in support of the candidate for post of Moscow mayor, Alexei […]

Sobyanin vs. Navalny, in Figures

There has been some confusion about Navalny’s poll ratings due to the varying timing, phrasing, and options in the polls on the matter. The Russian Spectrum tries to clear things up. Navalny Gaining, Sobyanin Dominant Below is a summary of comparable polls on this subject by date from two of Russia’s three biggest polling agencies: […]

Sobyanin Beating Navalny in Moscow

With the registration period over, there are now six candidates left to compete for the position of Mayor of Moscow in the coming city elections. Who will Muscovites vote for? Moscow on the Eve of the City Elections Which of the following candidates are you prepared to vote for in the upcoming Moscow elections on […]

Translation: Muscovites Aren’t Hot for Navalny

Moskovsky Komsomolets’ Dmitry Katorzhnov takes a walk around Moscow to ask people what they feel about Navalny. The impressions he gets don’t promise anything good for his campaign. MK’s Poll: Most Muscovites don’t Want to Vote for Navalny Half of the respondents do not intend to go to the polls anyhow. On Wednesday, July 10 Alexey […]

The Kremlin Does A Very Clever Thing

Lost in the furor and liberal butthurt over Depardieu’s defection has been a development of far greater import: Russia is going to cardinally change its elections system. According to Putin’s directive to the Presidential Administration and the Central Elections Committee, they are to come up with a bill that transforms Russia’s current proportional system to […]

Quick Impressions On Ukraine Elections 2012

AP asks: No article about the Ukrainian parliamentary elections? Unfortunately, no, as I’m very busy this week. But some quick impressions: (1) My initial predictions for the elections. We’ll see how I do relative to about 70 other people soon enough. [tweet https://twitter.com/AnatolyKarlin/status/262371694809841666] (2) As the results came in, with PoR getting 37% of the […]

What Happened In Georgia Was An Oligarchic Coup

My latest for US-Russia.org Expert Discussion Panel on whether to view the recent Georgian elections, in which Saakashvili’s United National Movement lost a lot of power, as a Kremlin coup or a triumph of democracy. My view that it isn’t really either: Two dominant themes prevailed in media coverage of the 2012 Georgian elections (1) The […]

A Quick Note On Venezuelan Elections

Chavez won. The comprador candidate got sent packing. As, indeed, 80% of the pre-elections polls predicted. I fully expect the usual democratist presstitutes to cry foul in the coming days. Not because the Venezuelan elections were unfair – though they will doubtless be claimed to be so by the organs of imperialist propaganda like the […]

Natalia Zubarevich – The Four Russias

Natalia Zubarevich’s concept of “The Four Russias” is one of the most reasoned and perceptive political analysis from the liberals, and as such I think it important enough to translate it (mostly I disagree with its core assumptions and conclusions though I do think it is a useful way of envisioning Russian politics). As such […]

Authoritarian Parallels

One of the main theses of this blog is that in many respects, Russia is far more similar to the the “West” (and vice versa) than various democratists would have you believe. Case in point (h/t Jon Hellevig): When GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney visited an Ohio coal mine this month to promote jobs in the […]

Why Obama Will Sooner Win

Ten months ago I bet a symbolic $10 on a Republican win. According to elections models and the bookies, it’s more likely than not that I’ve lost it. Not that I’m saddened by this development of course. (That said, if the economy slumps sharply in Q3, then a Romney win becomes entirely possible).

I’m Now A Libertarian :(

At least in the context of the US Presidential elections according to this nifty quiz. Here are my detailed results for perusal for anyone interested. PS. Mitt Romney’s VP pick was a good one. Paulites however are (rightly) not convinced and I for one still favor Obama if with no particular enthusiasm. PPS. The real […]

Mexico Makes The Right Choice

Two days ago, Mexicans returned the PRI to power after 12 years in the political wilderness, with Enrique Peña Nieto becoming President. The leftist Obrador as well as PAN’s Mota lost. I don’t know much about Mexico but this is how I interpret things. (1) The PAN seem to be full of neoliberals, who serve foreign […]