Quiz: Did This Happen In Russia Or A Democratic Country?

This quiz does not, of course, prove that there’s no fraud in Russian election. However, it does caution us to take overly simple methods and bold conclusions with a pinch of salt.

In particular – due to the influence of populous sub-groups with their own particular voting patterns – a fair election need NOT have a Gaussian on a graph of turnout with voting share for a particular party. In the US, African-Americans overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party and its candidate; this explains the spikes Obama gets close to the 100% mark. The Detroit and Washington DC results are skewed in particular because they are predominantly African-American cities, plus the former hosts the automobile industries bailed out under the Obama administration.

Likewise, the share of votes for one party having a positive correlation with turnout is not indicative of fraud either. If that were the case, not only British elections would have to be considered rigged, but also those of Germany and Israel.

Now as blog readers will know from previous posts, I do think there is substantial election fraud in Russia: Around 5-7% in the 2011 Duma elections, and 3-4% in the recent Presidential ones. (This far more resembles someplace like Italy in the 1950’s than the US today where I very much doubt fraud is higher than 1%). However, the indicators I used to reach these figures are far more varied and nuanced than the flagrant statistical misuse that the far higher fraud figures like 10%+ are based on.

Pages: 1 2 3

If you like the words I write, and want me to write more of them, consider donating or supporting me on Patreon.

Comments

  1. I got 50% right)) What does it about the elections statistically? ))))))

  2. 638915 124728Right after study some of the weblog posts within your website now, and i genuinely such as your technique for blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark internet site list and are checking back soon. Pls look into my internet web site likewise and make me aware what you consider. 251919

  3. I’m not sure exactly why but this web site is loading
    extremely slow for me. Is anyone else having this problem or is it a
    issue on my end? I’ll check back later on and see if
    the problem still exists.

Speak Your Mind

*