So we correctly make fun of people like Neil Turok and Deirdre McCloskey who expect to discover the next generation of Einsteins amongst 70-75 IQ Africans. Even if we could run the full FLynn program on Africa and raise it up to its genotypic IQ potential of 85-90, it’s not like countries with those sorts of figures today are brimming with geniuses (though they are not necessarily unpleasant places to live in, as Fred Reed constantly reminds us).
But there’s some who think this implies that Africa will inevitably collapse due to overpopulation and their absolute inability to run any kind of industrial civilization without help from Europeans or the Chinese, because apparently Sub-Saharan Africa can barely support one billion people let alone the four billion that the UN projects for the end of the century. Here’s one example of such an argument:
This reply could also cover Piltdown man too: You are making an assumption that these people can work in an organized fashion, use and take care of mechanical equipment, and have an infrastructure that will let all of the population have access to this productive farmland. I know you’ve heard of Zimbabwe, formerly Rhodesia – the breadbasket of Africa.
Obviously I am not going to go down the “racism” card like some bottom-tier SJW, but I would like to play the “reality” card.
(1) First off, why the implicit assumption that trade and technological links with the outside world must vanish? I suppose that if a gamma ray burst were to fry the northern hemisphere tomorrow and wipe the high IQ peoples from the planet, then SSA will also experience an economic and demographic collapse. Advanced manufacturing will vanish, there will be zero further technological/scientific progress and an outright regression in the stock of knowledge by a century or so.
But short of these sci-fi scenarios, how can this happen? Individual African countries might decide to drive foreign investors and any lingering white/Indian minorities out, but there are more than fifty separate polities in Africa. The likelihood that the continent as a whole adopts such self-destructive policies are diminishingly small. The Chinese in particular are interested in acquiring tracts of African lands to increase their food security. Their motives are of course self-interested, but it results in technology transfer and helps Africans too.
(2) Sub Saharan Africa is almost eight times as big as India in land area, and India now supports 1.3 billion people. It has twice as much arable land, but this can be expanded. I don’t think there’s any equivalent of the Ganges valley in SSA (or really anywhere on Earth) in terms of agricultural productivity, but still, there’s no shortage of productive land.
Africa pessimists like citing Zimbabwe, where crop yields are lower than they were half a century ago. But it’s not representative of the continent. Crop yields in the continent as a whole have increased by almost 50% since 1990. In Ethiopia, a country once synonymous with photos of starving children, they have more than doubled.
SSA is now on average where India was in the 1980s, and the world in general was in the 1960s. And it’s not like agriculture is a particularly g loaded occupation.
Certainly I don’t see Africans introducing automated hydroponics farms that super-densely populated advanced countries like Japan and the Netherlands are experimenting with, but they don’t have to do that even to feed a quadrupled population; just getting to Brazil’s level (which is slightly above the world average) by 2100 would do.
They have plenty of time and plenty of low-hanging fruit to be picked up. For instance, irrigation, which can basically double yields, is almost entirely absent from SSA.
(3) Paradoxically, (moderate) global warming can actually help Africa.
Historically, it was during colder periods that Africa’s dry zones became even drier, leading to famines. The reverse might be true: Conditions may well become wetter in the West African Sahel, “in what would be a rare example of a positive tipping point” in response to global warming (Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009).
There is paleoclimatic evidence for this. In the warming at the end of the last Ice Age, the modern day Sahara turned into a lush savannah, with crocodiles, hippos and elephants roaming the plains. Progressive cooling turned the area into the dessicated desert it is today, pushing populations south and towards the Nile valley.
Severe warming (5C+) is one thing that would be very bad for SSA and will push all the above considerations into the margins. (Though, that said, the sort of commenters who envisage Africans as Piltdown men also tend to think climate change is a liberal elite conspiracy).
(4) All societies have undergone the demographic transition, so why exactly should Africa be the exception anyway?
(I mean, assuming that the Neo-Nazis are wrong about Africans being like rabbits with no ability to control their fertility, and that real world examples of Blacks undergoing the demographic transition when they reach a sufficient level of development like in Jamaica or Trinidad and Tobago are not figments of statistics bureaus’ imaginations).
There’s no evidence that SSA is going to be an exception. It is certainly lagging, as it is most other indicators, but it’s still happening.
The TFR for the continent as a whole has declined from close to 7 children per woman inaround 1980 to about 5 children today. The Africa pessimist crowd loves to single out Niger, probably the single most illiterate and backwards country in the world. But if you want to nitpick, why not instead pick Rwanda, run by Paul Kagame (an authoritarian technocrat who has been called Africa’s Lee Kuan Yew), which has gone from having 8 children per woman in 1980 to just 4 today?
Demographers tend to project fertility trends as gentle declines, but they can also take the form of sudden collapses. Famously, Iran’s TFR plummeted from more than 6 children per woman to below replacement level rate within less than a decade. The decline in China during the 1970s was almost as steep (and took place before the One Child Policy was implemented).
To illustrate this further, below is a screenshot from Paul Kennedy’s 1993 book Preparing for the 21st Century, citing contemporary UN Population Prospects forecasts for the year 2025.
These were actually more pessimistic than the 2017 update of the World Population Prospects that Sailer is citing in his recent series of pessimistic posts on African demographics.
Outside Africa: Pakistan now projected at 227 million, not 267 million; Brazil at 219 million, not 245 million; Indonesia at 285 million, not 263 million, but as the only upwards exception massively canceled out by Iran, which is projected to have 87 million by 2025, not 122 million.
Even within Africa, which has by and large yet to undergo the demographic transition, those forecasts are now clearly pessimistic in hindsight: Nigeria now projected to be at 234 million, not 301 million; Kenya at 60 million, not 77 million; Tanzania at 73 million, not 84 million; and Zaire (now DRC) the only upwards outlier, at 104 million instead of 99 million.
Anyhow, it’s not like SSA is in standstill. Literacy is improving, school enrollment is rising, infant mortality is falling, peasants are leaving for the cities, wmen are going into education and having careers. All the factors that have historically collapsed fertility rates around the world are now acting on SSA.
It would not be surprising if Africa’s demographic transition happens faster than expected, as in the Low variant of the current UN forecast, and ends up merely tripling instead of quadrupling as in the Medium scenario.
(5) As I pointed out in A Short History of the Third Millennium, modern societies strongly select for lower IQ and higher fertility. The FLynn effect has gone into reverse, and if technological progress was to stagnate – as it might well do so due to the depletion of “smart fractions” – it is also likely that the cultural innovations that have hitherto suppressed fertility will also fall by the wayside. Even leaving aside low-IQ Third World immigration, Europe and White America will likely be duller and more fecund (leaving aside technological singularities, CRISPR-transhumanism, etc).
Africa still has some potential to increase its IQ via better nutrition, etc., though whether it will ever manage to create institutions capable of maximizing them out as in the developed world today is questionable. However, at least it does not yet appear to be subject to the dysgenic pressures that are ravaging the developed world. And if its future demographic expansion was to constantly bump up against the Malthusian limits, these dysgenic trends may even be averted altogether.
After three or four centuries of scraping against the Malthusian grindstone, it’s not inconceivable that African IQ will fully converge with that of Europeans and East Asians.
And then Turok’s successors will finally find their African Einsteins who will take us into space aboard the pyramids.
Those reassuring fertility statistics are pure invention, and not only from Africa – and so are those Ethiopian crop yields.
It certainly would be good if population growth in Africa turns out to be lower than expected. But even in such a scenario Europe would still be overwhelmed demographically unless there is really drastic political change in the next few years (which unfortunately looks unlikely).
I very much disbelieve that anyone (or anything intelligent) will be around in a hundred and fifty years from now..
In our lifetime, given that the rich in poor countries (who can afford the people smugglers’ fees or have the assets / qualifications required for a visa) are all trying to get to the West, and it is progressively easier for them to do so, one would expect that the IQ in Africa will plummet and the birthrate rise as the irreplaceable genetic seed-corn leaves the country full of miserably poor and low IQ people. This process will obviously accelerate as more and more of the capable Africans leave rather that stay in a downward spiraling hellhole.
FYI, there is a line wrap problem on your blog with Firefox (but not Chrome). It is something fairly recent and is only specific to a few branches on Unz.com. Your’s and James Thompson’s are affected, but Steve’s, Derb’s and Fred’s are not. Hope that this is fixed eventually.
It’s only the blog entry, comments are fine. Your old entries, which used to be fine, are affected too.
AK: Thanks, it’s been fixed.
Bravo, Anatoly! In a sea, nay, ocean of ignorance regarding Africa, you have something uplifting to say which ought to be appreciated…
High fertility rate in Africa also follows high mortality rates, especially infants, even if fertility ends up in a surplus. Of course, at some level of development, fertility starts falling, africans no exception.
Africans has much less life expectancy than any other country in the world, and it is not american/european or chinese administration that will fix that. Their only concern is to pay governments in cash and develop infrastructure not only as a bargaining chip to earn rights and favors from african dictators or inept presidents, but also as something for their own necessity to explore riches until there’s no more use for them, leaving for the africans to take care of it.
And not even old infrastructure from colonial times were/are being kept or improved properly, so what would change now or even in the future?
Also there is also the centuries-long tribal conflicts and civil wars over territory (especially european deliberated territory division) and other things.
Even if few africans from countries like, for example, South Africa would never expel their remaining white elite for being the ones who are able to maintain things still working in a failed economy who was once big, they don’t want to accept new whites to come and take control of things. Chinese are only tolerated because they believe they don’t meddle with government or values. Business was tolerated and employment even by low wages was accepted since chinese were more “sincere” than whites, but now even this point of view is changing among africans.
African elites who made their fortune by education and government links (but not part of the government as a public servant, in other words, businessmen) keep their business in Africa, but quickly go to UK or the USA, like the few rich Igbo do.
Even if the african population rises because of african high fertility + rise in crops and (false) development by some predatory chinese state companies, Africa still has signs it’ll be the most underdeveloped continent in the world for many centuries to come.
The Flynn Effect, ah yes….
Has anybody bothered to compare the performance improvement on IQ tests with say, advances in snowboarding? Or times for running the mile?
In other words, today’s snowboarders can perform tricks that would have staggered the imaginations of snowboarders of the 1980’s. True too of times put up by today’s milers or marathoners.
But would anyone care to argue that a miler today is/was/would have been a better athlete than Roger Bannister?
How?
How could you do that? Argue that the best then would not be the best now? And vice versa?
The advances have been made in training methods, equipment, diet, knowledge of kinesiology etc. Those and not inherent athleticism have made for faster times, heavier dead lifts and more acrobatic aerial stunts.
The natural conclusion is that intelligence has not been rising but rather that preparation has improved. Perhaps school curriculums have been subtly modified to “teach to the test”. Perhaps much useless “knowledge” has been purged from the curriculum (as Isaac Asimov pointed out much of older “learning” consisted in demonstrating proficiency in conversions of e.g. hogsheads to tankards and such like). And perhaps, just as in snowboarding, kids start from a higher plateau of skill sets and short cuts have been developed to facilitate their advancement.
how do you suppose Ethiopian crop yield data is made up
Frankly, the low total fertility rate of African-Americans today suggests that Sub-Saharan Africa would likewise eventually reach approximately such a fertility level. Indeed, it only appears to be a matter of time.
Also, you appear to be forgetting the huge impact that genetic modification of embryos for intelligence can make. Indeed, such technology can certainly make a huge impact on the entire world–with the largest impact being made on current low-IQ countries. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if the current low-IQ countries will be one of the largest supporters (at least initially) of this technology!
As a side note, though, I wonder how exactly the alt-right will react to such technology. After all, in a scenario where such technology becomes widespread–including in the current low-IQ countries–most of the objections that the alt-right will have towards large-scale Muslim, brown, and black immigration to the Western World will become invalid and obsolete.
You are off by a few orders of magnitude.
Also, @Anatoly Karlin, I forgot to mention that while experiencing a Malthusian catastrophe can raise the average IQ of Sub-Saharan Africa, it could also result in large-scale Sub-Saharan African immigration to other parts of the world–especially to Europe, North Africa, and Asia (due to their proximity to Sub-Saharan Africa). Indeed, think of what happened with the Irish after Ireland experienced a Malthusian catastrophe in the 1840s. In turn, what this would mean is that while Sub-Saharan Africa’s IQ will increase, other parts of the world–especially Europe–might temporarily take a significant IQ hit from a Malthusian catastrophe in Sub-Saharan Africa. (For the record, the reason that I write “temporarily” is because genetic engineering of embryos for intelligence will probably make this a moot point in the long(er)-run.)
Read Paul Collier’s Exodus. It is the black elite that is leaving, right down to nurses.
I don’t care what happens in Africa. I don’t care if they all starve to death. I don’t care if gorillas and baboons mutate into super apes and clobber and devour all the Negroes. I don’t care if hippos and crocodiles merge into crocoppos and stomp on every Negro chucking spears at them.
The real danger isn’t what’s happening among the Negroes. Who cares about them savages?
The real danger is the endless migration to Europe. And this will continue even if African population plummets. It’s like Asian population keeps dropping but they still continue to pour into Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the US. It’s like Iranian population is leveling off, but Iranians also keep moving to other nations. It’s like Mexican birthrates have gone way done over the yrs, but Mexicans are still hopping over the border like jumping beans.
So, even if black African populations were to stop growing today, blacks will continue to invade the West. Why?
White people worship Negroes. Afromania is such that even as European Right bitch about Muslims and ‘culture’ and ‘terrorism’, they almost never talk about the threat posed by black race. For every Muslim terrorist act, 1000 white wombs get colonized by Negroes, and thousand white boys get whupped by stronger Negroes. But there is silence even from the Right. As US narrative rule the world, even white nations that never had black slavery must go with ‘white guilt’ in relation to blacks.
White women don’t complain cuz they got jungle fever and want sex with Negroes and want to have Obama-babies. White boys don’t complain cuz their brains are PC-infected to believe that any critical view of black is ‘racist’, and of course, there’s no greater evil than ‘racism’. Also, as sports is the new tribalism, whites have come to identify with athletes as ‘national heroes’, and so they see Negroes as their champions or lancelots. This is why new tellings of King Arthur feature Negro as lancelot, the greatest knight. Also, Europeans are under US cultural control. They see Hollywood movies about holy magic negro saints. So, they see Negroes as so lovey-dovey. And they have a totally skewed view of South Africa where apartheid was totally evil and Mandela was some saint and god. Also, Europeans, like Americans, are into pop music of rap and hip hop and they worship rappers as main cultural icons. Even when blacks act like thugs or louts, they be ‘cool and hip’.
Also, even as Europeans imitate and follow everything American, they have this superiorist view that they are more enlightened. So, when Europeans hear about all those race problems in the US, they think it’s all the fault of KKK and ‘racist’ whites. And by hugging Negroes, Europeans want to show how to do it right: If you shower much love on Negroes, they will grow so nice and wonderful. But of course, that’s not the case. But Europeans are addicted to that myth.
So, Afro-triumphalism will be through conquest of European lands, hearts, senses, and wombs. Negroes will keep coming, taking over sports and music. Europeans will be excited by Negro muscle and music. And all that stuff about Negro slavery and ‘white guilt’ will tug at white heartstrings. And all that jungle fever will fill up white wombs with Negro seed.
Also, whites are like justice junkies and virtue crack addicts. Their main identity is about getting a cocaine high from feeling holier-than-thou, sanctimonious, and ‘more evolved’. So, boogie-wooging to black music and cheering for black sports fill whites with sensory thrills, and weeping over them po’ magic negroes who done suffer ‘slavery’ makes whites feel so holy-shmoly and sanctimonious. They need this fix. It’s a drug to them.
Look at Japan. It is so far away from Africa, America, and Jamaica. But Japanese women still reject their ‘loser’ men and seek out black men to have jungaru feebah sex with them. And they created these black Japanese babies who are kicking Japanese men in sports. And Japanese now worship these black Japanese as ‘national heroes’. And this will encourage more Japanese women to go Nigaru.
So, if Japan is going that way, imagine the fate of Europe that is so close to Africa that is teeming with the black savages who desire to colonize Polish and Hungarian womenfolk. And consider that most white boys are homo-worshiping cuck dorks with no will or spine to defend their land, womenfolk, and narrative from the invaders who, they believe, must be welcomed as agents of holy Diversity.
http://www.dailywire.com/news/17954/friends-no-more-black-lives-matter-slams-gay-pride-hank-berrien
Maybe Milo can bridge this divide.
He’s homo and loves blacks up his bungker.
I’ve liked Kagame since the 1990s, I’ve liked him even more since hearing War Nerd repeatedly sing his praises, and I like him even more now after reading your post and seeing the chart. Could Kagame be the world’s greatest living statesman?
“Look at Japan. It is so far away from Africa, America, and Jamaica. But Japanese women still reject their ‘loser’ men and seek out black men to have jungaru feebah sex with them.”
You’re out of your mind, Priss Factor. The black population of Japan is almost nonexistent. The only estimate I have seen is .02%.
Japan is one of the most racially homogenous countries on earth, with the oft-quoted 98.5% ethnic Japanese population.
Of the remainder, it is by far dominated by other Asian sub-groups and as far as marriage is concerned it is Japanese men marrying Filipino women. There is a very healthy Karaoke girl recruitment out of the Philippines, and there is no equivalent trade for immigration of men.
I suspect you are a multiple identity troll.
” imagine the fate of Europe that is so close to Africa that is teeming with the black savages who desire to colonize Polish and Hungarian womenfolk”
I do not know much of the current situation in either country, but I have severe doubts that either would put up with a 10-15% black population in the same vein as the US.
You misunderstand my point.
If Japan sticks with its current demographics, I don’t see a problem.
And yes, there are very few blacks in Japan AS OF NOW.
But certain trends are like cancer. It takes on a life of its own and starts growing and then growing exponentially. You surely heard of the story of the grain of rice on a chessboard which is then doubled on the next board and etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byk3pA1GPgU
There was a time when the non-white population of UK and France was as small as black population in Japan. And it was smaller yet in Sweden(that is now committing Swedish Suicide or Swecide).
So, how did the changes happen? EU got infected with the cancer of multiculturalism. Cancer begins with just a few cells but never stops growing. A cancer is not like a wound or scar.
A wound or scar remains fixed. So, if you have a scar from injury, it may look ugly but it’s not gonna grow bigger and kill you. But if you got cancer, it can grow from few cells to tons of cells and take over your body through bloodstreams and overwhelm you immune system and kill you.
If Europe had some Negroes, it’d be like a scar or wound if the number remains fixed. And there was a time when it was like that. Some Negroes ended up in Europe, but Europeans didn’t like them. Europeans believed in white pride and nationalism. So, the number of blacks and non-whites remained fixed. So, how did this turn cancerous?
It was a combination of factors.
Various factors led to decline in birthrates. Feminism, urbanism, individualism, women in work force, infantilism & immaturism(wanting to be young and party forever, like Charlotte Rampling character in GEORGY GIRL), etc. And this meant businesses came to rely on cheap foreign labor. Businesses thought these foreigners would be docile and easy to use, even exploit. Also, white Europeans, with prosperity and rising expectations, didn’t find much dignity in manual labor anymore. Whites were to do clean work or live off the state, and dirty work was to be done by others.
Cult of Diversity. Europeans were made to believe, with blind faith, that Diversity is a good, and if you disagree, you’re an evil demented heretic. Diversity was as good as Sun rises in the East. It was not to be questioned, and kids were taught this from cradle. If anyone disagrees, he’s ‘racist’. This was tied with ‘white guilt’, and in time, whites were morally afraid to assert themselves as inheritors and owners of their own identity, heritage, and territory. So, French identity no longer belonged to native Frenchmen. It could be doled out to any African or Muslim or Vietnamese. Also, French heritage no longer belonged to the French. It belonged to anyone who likes Croissants. And French territory went from motherland to Otherland. Frenchmen could no longer claim it as theirs. Also, the state and media promoted the ideal that white wombs belonged to African men who are superior in manhood to French men. After all, French sports is all black now. Anyone could come and claim it. And this became the reigning ideology.
The Left changed from pro-workers to pro-immigrants/invaders. When the left was pro-working class, it opposed massive immigration as scab-labor. Also, the left was anti-imperialist and championed the nationalist aspirations of non-white nations. But that was then, this is now. The European left lost interest in the working class as the white-collared labor became more important to the economy. So, whites began to see the Justice Dynamics as being between ‘privileged whites’ and ‘non-white immigrants'(and self-righteous-supremacist whites who hug and dote on them). And the ‘new left’ got addicted to feeling holier-than-thou by hugging these immigrants and mugging for moral attention. And this attitude came to be regarded as the highest virtue. Also, globalism made the European left neo-imperialist. In the 50s and 60s, the left championed third world nationalism against Western imperialism. Today, the ‘new left’ doesn’t oppose NATO’s destruction of nations like Libya or US support of Jihadis in Syria to destroy national sovereignty. They either endorse or tolerate it, and furthermore, welcome ‘refugees’ uprooted by these neo-imperialist wars. ‘New Left’ is about invade/invite.
Today, if a white European says, “this is my land, this is my culture, this is my identity and YOU INVADERS don’t belong here”, he is seen as a moral monster. But if a white European says, “My land belongs to any bunch of Muslims and Africans who make it here as immigrants, migrants, or refugees. And white wombs should ideally be preserved for black and non-white men while we white boys act like pansy boys and wave the homo flag”, he is showered with praise and patted on the back as a wonderful lad.
All these factors led to Diversity as Diversease and Inclusion as Incluenza. These are diseases. And over time, they turned cancerous, and it won’t stop. Now, no Frenchmen can say, ‘we should stop diversity at 20%.’ He can’t even ask for stopping diversity once it reaches 50% of population. It must keep going and going even when French turn into 20% of population. French must now pretend that all those Muslims, Africans, and Asians in France are ‘French’, just like we must pretend that ‘gay marriage’ is real marriage or pretend that illegal aliens are ‘undocumented immigrants’.
When there were some non-whites in Europe, it used to be just a scar or wound. Europeans didn’t believe they should have more. And they were proud to assert that Europe belonged to native whites. But the mindset has changed. Diversity is seen as a holy good that must be fed with more blood and oxygen to allow it to grow bigger and bigger. And the white blood cells and immune system are attacked as ‘evil’ and ‘racist’. So, the chemo isn’t aimed at cancer cells but at white blood cells. This is why Europe is dying.
Now, let’s look at Japan. If the current number of blacks in Japan remains where it is, no problem. Indeed, no problem even if Japanese women have kids with them.
But globalism is affecting the ideology, culture, attitude, and mindset of Japan.
Japanese are pornomaniacs. It is possibly the whoriest society on earth. From videos to comic books to animation to prostitution to festivals, Japanese are very kinky about sexual stuff. And there is a whole culture of Japanese women seeking out black men for sex. Emi Yamada or Amy Yamada was a best selling novelist and normalized this. And now, Japanese are following in the cuck model of the West. Blacks go to Japan because they know they are in demand.
Japanese ideology is turning more PC by the day. Japan has homo parades and is considering ‘gay marriage’. Japanese are becoming more sensitive about ‘racism’, and this especially applies to blacks because US rules the world and its narrative dominates. So, if Japanese ‘mistreat’ Chinese, Koreans, Iranians, or Filipinos in Japan, it’s no big deal. But if there’s any whiff of negative attitude toward blacks, it is big news worldwide. So, Japanese are now especially sensitive about blacks.
Japanese men are even dorkier than white men, and Japanese women, with globalized sexual tastes, are beginning to reject Japanese men and go with foreign men in huge numbers. And as Negro Man is now promoted as top stud, more Japanese women will go that way. Now, if Japanese society frowned on such, it might restrain Japanese female behavior. But now, Japan is openly promoting ACOJW or Afro-Colonization of Japanese Wombs. A mulatto Japanese woman, daughter of black man, was crowned Miss Japan. And Japanese media promote mulatto Japanese runners — all children of black men and Japanese women — as national heroes. Since this new iconic image of Japan is beamed nation-wide, all Japanese youths will now grow up with the idea that the ideal mating is Japanese women with black men.
Japan cannot escape globalist trends that says all nations(minus Israel) must have more diversity or else be condemned. Homogeneity is seen as an evil whereas Diversity is seen as good. Never mind Diversity has been the product of imperialism and foreign domination.
According to this view, Philippines is better than Japan because Spanish forced diversity on it for centuries. And Japan was evil to have defended itself from Christians and other European imperialists. And now, since globalist imperialism is controlled by Jews, the ideal for every nation is to open up to homomania, negro sex, US military, and Jewish finance/media.
Japan is especially vulnerable because it’s a nation of hive mentality. EU is in bad straits but whites still have individuality, and there are some whites on the Right who are resisting and fighting back. But Japanese are a bunch of drone bees. If Japanese elites decide to push Diversity, most Japanese will fall in line like domo arigoto mr. roboto. It’s like Japan in WWII. They fought like hell against the US, but once surrender happened, they became a total whore nation to uncle sam. So, if Japanese adopt Diversity, they will take to it more crazily than others. Asiatic mind is dog-like. Look at communism in China. Though western in origin, the Orientals took it to greater extremes than in the West. Maoism made Stalinism seem like a mild constitutional monarchy.
Also, Japanese power derives from group cohesion, and this is possible only if Japan is mostly Japanese with shared culture, temperament, and values. If Japan fills up with foreigners, especially unruly blacks, Japanese will lose their way. Also, as individuals, Japanese men will lose to all foreign men. Even Chinese called Japanese ‘dwarfs’. These are scrawny buggers. If made to fend for themselves one-on-one against black thugs, Japanese will be even more helpless than white guys who get whupped by Negroes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtlMOsDQzs4
Japanese had big problem with handful of Negroes. Imagine rising Negro population in Japan.
Globalist narrative follows ‘white guilt’ and ‘magic negro’ narrative. So, no matter how badly blacks act in Japan or EU, it’s considered ‘racist’ or ‘insensitive’ to speak honestly. (If Russian thugs or British soccer hooligans act ugly, we can say so. But if blacks act that way, we better just call it vibrant.) Same with Jews. We have to refer to blacks as ‘teens’, and we have to pretend Jewish power is ‘NATO’ or ‘white Americans’. This narrative shield gives protection for blacks to keep doing horrible things. Look what black Africans are doing to Australia. Look at the horror of black run South Africa. But the world gives us stuff like 12 YRS A SLAVE and GET OUT. And even when black are seen as acting like thugs, it’s glorified through ridiculous rap videos. Kanye West and other rappers act ugly and vile, but they are promoted as heroes. Tupac the moron is seen as heroic legend worldwide. Among white elites, Bob Marley is bigger than Jesus and MLK is bigger than God.
http://articles.latimes.com/1992-12-16/news/mn-1947_1_university-band
Some might see blacks in Japan today as just a minor scar. It used to be that. But due to globalist pressures, it has turned into a cancer. In 20 yrs, I expect most Japanese runners to be black, or children of Japanese women who rejected Japanese men as inferior and went Negro. And this will be promoted in media, and this will become the national norm. So, more and more Japanese women will have kids with foreigners while Japanese men die childless or marry ‘sex robots’.
As Japanese women lose respect for timid sheepish Japanese who cannot even defend land, heritage, and women, they will seek out even more foreign men. And Japan will turn into something like Indonesia-Brazil. Likely, Taiwan and S. Korea will go the same way, and may indeed be further afield than Japan already. So, that leaves only China, just as only Russia may remain a truly white nation as EU is being taken over by diversease of demographic cancer.
No, I got your wild assertion just fine.
You just said “HUGE NUMBERS”. Until you actually provide visa data, demographic data, marriage data, etc. instead of anecdotes, we can’t take your word for it.
I have friends and family there. I am not hearing this from them. They tell me the problem is that both men and women in Japan don’t seem to be interested in sex. About half the population is not having sex right now. Google that.
I have my own ideas on why, but it has nothing to do with blacks.
Meanwhile, we’re still waiting for the African Ramanujan.
I’m not holding my breath.
I still see the problem in both explorer & google chrome at 556 gmt.
Again an article that does not acknowledge the simple fact that population growth on this planet cannot go on indefinitely, that it will stop one way or another.
Afrotriumphalism is due to ‘white guilt’, Magic Negro worship, and Jungle Fever.
Special sensitivity about blacks makes it impossible to discuss the true threat posed by the Negro: Blacks are more muscular and more aggressive.
‘Integration’ means more black on white violence(and black on non-black violence).
But even after whites get robbed, beaten, raped, or lose family members to black thuggery, what do they do? They go back to listening to rap music, wiggling their ass to funk, cheering for black thugs in sports, worshiping MLK and Oprah, and celebrating jungle fever.
More Section 8 means EVERY white community will be filled with blacks who will beat up white boys and colonize white wombs. This used to be an American and Latin American problem since whites there brought black slaves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eArG64POIdc
IN contrast, Europe, Canada, and Australia were black-free. They were heaven and paradise for that very reason. Even after hell of WWI and WWII, Europe rebuilt fast cuz it was all white. Even with crappy communism, whites in Russia and Eastern Europe built and managed modern economies and systems. They were blessed relative to the US and nations like Brazil.
But US had a big enough white population and tons of resources and Anglo Rule of Law. And this made it possible for US to dominate the world. And in the US, the most powerful nation in the world, blacks came to dominate sports and pop music. And due to ‘white guilt’ narrative, blacks in the US were even made into holy saints and icons. Europeans came to worship MLK too. The imperialism of American Narrative meant that even nations that had nothing to do with Atlantic Slave Trade or Jim Crow in the US must share in the ‘guilt’. So, even Canada and Ireland must have ‘black history month’.
So, Europe and Canada and Australia also decide to open up to holy Negroes. Also, as Africa is so poor and backward, whites tend to see blacks as helpless folks in need of compassion(like rich white guy helping cuddly black kids in Different Strokes or Webster). They don’t think what will happen when these muscled aggressive blacks are let loose in the West. Worse, due to rise of PC, these blacks are taught by Western media and education to HATE whitey and make endless demands. Whites are like a dog that feels oh-so-good by rescuing a lion cub. As a cub, it looks so cuddly and in-need-of-help. In time, of course, the lion cub grows bigger than the dog and poses an existential threat. But the do-goody dog is stuck on seeing the lion as a once-helpless cub.
There was a time when black-white problem was ONLY an issue in US and Latin America.
But now, it may well be EU will have a bigger black problem than the US and even Brazil. As African population is exploding, as white population is declining, as Africa is so close to Europe, and as the reigning ideology of the West is ‘diversity’, ‘inclusion’, ‘anti-racism’, and Afromania, it could well be EU will be much darker than the US and even Brazil in yrs to come.
Also, EU state aggressively promotes the Afro-colonization of white wombs through education, music, propaganda, advertising, and etc. And that will be the real Afro-triumphalism.
A lot of white folks have no identity except for mugging for virtue vanity, a kind of self-righteous supremacism. Their whole meaning of life revolves around, ‘huh huh, I’m so much better than those ‘racist’ whites because I welcome non-white takeover over ‘racist’ white nations.’ THAT is what they live for. It is their drug, their cuckaine to snort.
It’s funny…
The American Narrative about blacks says BLACKS WERE FORCED TO COME TO THE NEW LAND. They were inhumanly and cruelly separated from kinfolk and homeland. So, Americans owe so much to blacks for tearing them away from soil and kin.
But…
The European Narrative about blacks says WHITES ARE ‘RACIST’ AND EVIL IF THEY DON’T TAKE IN ALL THESE SELF-MIGRATING BLACKS. So, never mind that these blacks are tearing themselves away from their kinfolk and soil. They have a ‘human right’ to enter any part of Europe and demand any benefit. And if EU won’t take them in, it is ‘racist’.
So, whites are ‘racist’ if they forcibly tear blacks away from Africa, and whites are ‘racist’ if they resort to force to keep blacks in Africa, their homeland. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
Picture an army of Alonzos from Training Day with O.J. Simpson smoking PCP in shotgun. Does that sound like the type of society the Alt Right would seek? There is plenty objectionable to a mere IQ increase in a population with such disparate tendencies.
Give a violent psychopath a high IQ and you end up with Randy Kraft instead of Aaron Hernandez. Few of any political stance would consider that progress.
Priss you need to find a human sex partner. As far as White men being gay wimps and White women’s lusting for blacks, speak for yourself
This will sound heartless, but if you can’t feed your kids, don’t have any.
Even if Africa had zero population growth it could not sustain its current standard of living on its own. Beyond the infusion of anti-malarial and AIDS drugs necessary to maintain the health of the present population what economic base it has is purely extractive and requires foreign investment, markets, management and finance to exist. Should that collapse or the mineral supply be exhausted it is back to the stone age in a few years.
If there was ever a case for Obama’s admonition “You didn’t build that” it is Africa. The problem is that in order for Africa to keeo foreign investment it must surrender control and that is politically impossible. In South Africa, e.g., Jacob Zuma is pushing a new mining law that would require mining companies to increase black ownership which might be possible as long as the operation of the mines were left in others hands but also require those same companies to buy equipment and supplies from black owned businesses. That is not because those black businesses do not and will not exist unless someone else creates and controls them.
The organizational ability of the African is very low which is why there are no large black run business organizations anywhere in the world ( government owned oil companies run by foreign consortiums do not count). When the cost of operating in Africa becomes too high the world will pull out and when this happens it will be impossible for even AID organizations to get back in as governments there become to weak to maintain order.
I think the argument that Africa can support 4 billion is a lot more plausible than the argument that Africa won’t reach 4 billion.
“assuming that the Neo-Nazis are wrong about Africans being like rabbits with no ability to control their fertility”
Did you call Steve Sailer a Neo-Nazi? Hmm.
From what I can see, black majority countries like South Africa can reach an income level where fertility declines, but this requires special conditions currently not in evidence elsewhere.
Of course not.
But you do get a lot of such rhetoric on sites like The Daily Stormer and so on.
Anatoly,
I once read an article on the Chinese rush for land in Ethiopia. I though it was in National Geographic, but I can’t track it down.
The article related that output from the Chinese-owned Ethiopian farms was improved over that of the locals due to imported machinery and technology. The Chinese farms were also sources of better-paying jobs for the lucky locals who won that lottery.
Among the downside were that locals had been forced off the land that the Chinese bought. There is also the pregnant question over where the output from the Chinese-owned Ethiopian farms is going … China, Ethiopia, or elsewhere in Africa? If it is exported to China, it can hardly be accounted as improving food security for Ethiopia’s burgeoning population or as a model for the rest of Africa.
I again cannot hit agree, but you are both correct and incorrect in this and your later posts on this thread, the points re. Japan.
Would like to making a comprehensive reply, but must sleeping soon.
Ersatz rap is much less popular than J-pop, but is big, the pushing of recent black pop ‘culture’ has been very heavy since the mid-nineties.
Large sectors of two entertainment and sleaze districts in Tokyo have a huge and annoying African presence. The bosses have spousal visas to start with.
One funny thing I saw seven or eight years ago, they were attempting to move into a third, they tried to attack a local mob man, there was a minor counter-attack, the police turned up. Since then, they have no visible presence there.
However, at least in parts of Tokyo, there is a noticeable and constant increase in numbers of half-picaninnies.
Other points I was already replying to in an earlier post.
Your friends and family here may be US servicepeople?
They don’t notice much, they are living in a different world, with vanishingly few to be exceptions.
If not, perhaps they are never coming to Tokyo, or are not very observant.
Priss is entertaining.
Some brief comments.
Firstly, re comments in thread, comments about returning to the stone age are absurd—Africans largely skipped the soft-metal (bronze) age and went to the Iron age directly, before European colonialism. See e.g. Mining and Metallurgy in Negro Africa, Cline, 1937, published by George Bantam (US academic publisher). In my recent comment history, I quote from the work.
Secondly, re Rwandan fertility, see the world bank. Rwanda peaked at 8.449 in 1979, and had decreased to 6.319 by 1994, for a reduction of 2.31 in 15 years; RPF rule took 21 years to produce the next 2.5 reduction (3.8 by 2015). Not so much a stunning acceleration to demographic transition as a deceleration.
Thirdly, Kagame is known for faking numbers (see also here, and for killing his former comrades.
Then again, considering that the standard works on Rwanda’s 1994 genocide are so false that their authors, real (Leave None to Tell the Story, des Forges) and imagined (Shake Hands with the Devil, pseudo-Dallaire, aka Sian Cansfield), were both (des Forges, Dallaire) careful at the ICTR to not repeat the bunkum in their books under oath (discussion of this aspect mainly after the first half-hour), Kagame truly is a broad appeal magical Negro, playing to everyone from the cruise missile left to the race-realist right.
Ethiopia, the bread basket of Africa.
Man, Band Aid was full of shit!
Africa hasn’t been a net exporter of food since the 80s and Thailand exports as much food as Africa while having a tenth of the population.
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/05/16/africas-rising-food-imports/
To reinforce this point of the food Africa imports only 5% of the food comes from Africa.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2012/10/24/africa-can-feed-itself-earn-billions-avoid-food-crises-unblocking-regional-food-trade
I appreciate you trying to be positive on Africa’s fortunes but there is simply little reason to believe that its people can feed itself if the population continues to increase.
I stopped reading when you said that SSAfricans could maintain 20th century levels of technology.
Exactly. Well put. Just as humans are no smarter today than those of a 1000 years ago. We are no smarter, merely the beneficiaries of an accumulated body of knowledge.
OP–there is a line-wrap problem on your blog with Firefox, Explorer , and on my other computer an older version of Chrome. It started the other day. It only hits a few writers. The article is unreadable…help!
the Chinese investment in Ethiopia has been predominantly on manufacturing sector but the GCC countries investment on agriculture is considerably high.
Why in your opinion? If you care to elaborate. Thanks!
From your WorldBank.org link:
“huge tracts of fertile land, around 400 million hectares, remain uncultivated and yields remain a fraction of those obtained by farmers elsewhere in the world.”
Wow! Close to a BILLION acres of uncultivated, arable land? And you say there is “little reason to believe that its people can feed itself”?!
The land is there now, why aren’t they tilling it?
Lions, elephants, hippos, etc.?
“The land is there now, why aren’t they tilling it?”
Do you expect a serious answer to such a question?
If you want to know about agriculture in Africa, its current state of development, its history, its trajectory, and so on, then you can investigate and acquire that knowledge.
The earth has vast resources of all kinds, as yet untapped, and no one is asking “well, why haven’t they tapped them yet?” — because it is an idiotic question. We’ll get around to tapping those resources when we get around to it.
One of my favorite sites.
Bravo, Anatoly! For a supposedly reality-based community, the HBDosphere has a major blind spot regarding where Africa is today and possible scenarios for its future. Africa has 55 countries; doom and gloom is not applicable to them all.
I’m in broad agreement with your major points, and I which to illustrate them with some examples from the one case I know best, and which has been mentioned in the comment thread. Ethiopia. I lived there for several years in the last decade as an expat, still visit regularly, have invested not only other people’s money, but my own, in there. This is going to be long, sorry.
First of all, keep in mind that Ethiopia is landlocked, has few useful minerals (just a little gold), has no oil and therefore must pay a hefty energy bill in imports, and as a very montainous place it is really difficult and expensive to build modern infrastructure. They speak their own language (Amharic) and, never having been colonized, don’t have the head start that other Africans have in speaking/understanding English or French. It’s also in an exciting neighborhood: Sudan (terrorism and civil war), South Sudan (civil war), Eritrea (formal state of war, tenuous ceasefire at the border), Somalia (’nuff said), Kenya (terrorism), Djibouti (only decent neighbor). That’s on top of whatever ancestral disadvantages it might possess on HBD grounds.
Someone expressed doubts about the increasing crop yields. They’re true. Ethiopia has been growing at or over 10% year-on-year since the turn of the millenium. This growth has been obtained by investment on family farms (there are very few large private estates in Ethiopia, since the Communist dictatorship of 1974-1992 had expropriated all land). This means growth has been broad and benefited a large proportion of the population. It also means it is sustainable. Ethiopia is set to be the fastest growing economy in the world this year, despite suffering from a drought (more below).
Foreign investment is pouring in, mainly Chinese, Korean and Turkish, but with non-negligible and rising amounts coming from the West (U.S., Netherlands, Germany) and Japan. They have made some inroads in products such as flowers, leather, and the textile industry, i.e., the first-tier, labor-intensive stages of industrialization. This is almost certain to go on.
They have also turned Ethiopian Airlines into a major player in world long-haul cheap air transportation, despite not having the bottomless amount of cash the Arab sheikdoms can give Qatar, Etihad, Emirates &c. Ethiopian Airlines revenue has been growing at 25% year-on-year for the last decade or so. It has surpassed South African as the largest African carrier.
Foreign investment (mainly Chinese here) has been pouring into infrastructure. The Chinese have built a major new railway to Djibouti (Ethiopia’s outlet to the sea) and motorways between the major cities. I have used them several times and the quality is generally very good in an absolute sense (in Africa, they have few peers).
Sub-Saharan Africa is famous for electricity shortages, and that kills any possible industrialization. Ethiopia is building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which has already started producing a small amount of energy and is set to be completed shortly. It is the seventh largest dam in the world and will supply several times Ethiopia’s current electricity needs. The shortages will not only disappear, but prices will be dirt cheap in global terms – cheap enough to attract foreign investors. Best part? The whole cost of the dam, some USD 7 billion, is being financed from the government budget – not donors, not foreign aid, not outfits like World Bank, and such. It is their own money.
Another thing the Ethiopians are doing is at least trying in education. They have now achieved full primary school enrollment; that is, very nearly all school-aged children really are attending school. This is a major achievement for a Third World country, and one as poor as Ethiopia. They have also created about a dozen universities, and are busy churning out engineers and agronomers. I mean, really: the government has a cap of about 15% on how much social science (that includes law) degrees the universities can grant. They have the priorities in the right place.
Of course, the standards of this education are low on an absolute scale, but even then… Several times I’ve spoken about this with other expats (Asians and Westerners) who were directly involved with supervising their Ethiopian workforce. To the question, ” you know, is someone with a degree in engineering from an Ethiopian university really an engineer?”, the answer almost unanimously was: “well, not really, of course it’s not the same thing as an engineering degree from back home in [China, Netherlands, Korea], but it is much better than we expected. The balance between expertise/salary levels is excellent and headquarters is really pleased. Plus, there are more than enough people capable of continuing to receive training and achieve higher productivity levels”. I myself did not run a large team, but my experience has been much the same.
Ethiopia is world-famous for the 1980s famine. That had nothing much to do with “incompetence”, though. It was planned, and very well planned if I may say so, by the then ruling Communist government (who else?) to genocide the population of the heartland of the opposition. The global repercussion took them by surprise and they had to appear to do something; so they happily received the world’s donations of food and money, gave them to their soldiers or sold them to get guns, and kept the people starving. They lost in the end, thank God (the opposition guerrillas took over the capital in 1992, and they are the basis of the current ruling party).
From late 2015 or so, Ethiopia (and East Africa from Eritrea to Mozambique generally) has been suffering from the effects of the latest El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, which interferes in the framework of air currents in the southern hemisphere with the result that in East Africa the rainy season is shortened by one or two months. As Karlin’s piece shows, there is barely any major irrigation works in Africa. (In the case of Ethiopia, the topography makes it nearly impossible in most of the country, and in all the more densely settled regions). Well, the current Prime Minister gathered the high-ranking foreigners in there (ambassadors and businessmen) to tell them, in effect: “if you say you’re our ally, this is the time to chip in. By the love of God, if you want to help, don’t give us food. What we need is money that we can funnel to the peasantry of the most affected areas, so they can buy food, and seeds and cattle to replenish their decimated holdings. If you give us food, more of our peasants will be priced out of the market and things will only get worse. And by the way, if you don’t help us, we will do this ourselves with our own money”. Funds from abroad were not forthcoming, and none of you has heard of any major famine in Ethiopia in the last two years. The economy did not even slow down! Why? Becase Ethiopia has been achieving nearly 40% of investment/GDP ratio, and invests over two thirds of its budget on capital investment (infrastructure); numbers almost unheard-of in the Third World, and particularly in countries as poor as Ethiopia.
Of course, this has focused on the positive side of the picture, because few people know about this, and – as I see – none in the HBDosphere. (Those who do, are making money out of it). There are of course, major, enormous, obstacles for Ethiopia to continue improving; the most immediate is, what else, rivarly between the ethnic groups. (Today, the minority Tigrayans, just some 4 million people out of 100 million, hold the upper hand and buy out the elites of the other way more populous ethnies. The Oromo have been staging demonstrations since last year, and large parts of the country are currently under a relatively mild martial law). Acute foreign exchange shortage is another difficulty; exports are growing, and growing well, but are still too small to finance industrialization-driven growth, so the government is very careful with the foreign exchange it gets (this is a major pain in the ass for foreign investors; but if the government did not do this, the now-more-numerous middle and upper classes would spend this money away importing luxury goods from Asia and the West).
The Ethiopian economic strategy proclaims the relatively modest objective of achieving middle-income status by the end of the 2020s. (If they keep up their current rates of growth, they’ll get there well ahead of schedule). That’s a pittance if you’re a Westerner, but a genuine achievement if you were the world’s poster-child for abject poverty just a few decades ago.
I could tell you a lot more, about politics, security. terrorism, crime, the problem of Islam, etc, but I’m sure your eyes glazed over into TL;DR long ago. Anyway, if someone read this far and is interested in more information, look up the name of Arkebe Oqubay.
Thanks for the write up. I’m sure there are a few of us on here sympathetic to the plight of pimping a country with a horrible reputation.
This certainly sounds like a great idea, though how will Ethiopia survive into the 21st century without a plethora of gender studies graduates?
No, this was actually very interesting. Thanks for your account.
Ponderously and conveniently devoid of any discussion of 500+ years of colonial exploitation and the deliberate debasement of the numerous indigenous movements within Africa for self-governance. From Lumumba to Qaddafi (at least) every attempt at African indigenous independence has been met with murderous interventions.
Diversity is our strength.
The result of ethno-clan diversity in Ethiopia and Somalia due to imperialist drawing of maps.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clsarDL0RQY
Of course it will increase Ethiopias food security.
Ethiopia will export food, just like every other modern country. They will trade for other items like machinery and acquire knowhow that will increase yields on their farms.
This is literally how every other developing country has done it.
Excellent read. Thank you.
Thoroughly enjoyed your contribution. Although it hasn’t overturned my worldview (which remains grim esp vis-a-vis SSA), as a good Bayesian, it introduced some corrections to my models.
In that sense, assimilating new and contradictory information is much like physical exercise – many (most?) people have an inherent aversion to it, and yet it’s absence is just as morally and aesthetically unseemly. Thanks for reminding me to get me off the (mental) couch!
“the government has a cap of about 15% on how much social science (that includes law) degrees the universities can grant. They have the priorities in the right place.”
This little datum strikes me as remarkably significant. I’m grateful to both you and the author’s article that engendered it. This will definitely take me back to the drawing board in terms of my forecasting and investment ideas.
If Liberia is any indication (or for that matter the 150 year British occupation of Hong Kong), I would say the problem was too little colonialism rather than too much.
Oddly the same vociferously anti-colonialists seem elated at the prospect of strip mining these countries of their human capital via emigration. Some natural resources will regenerate or can be managed. Skimming a population of it’s top IQs tends to not work out as well.
Thanks. This is a very commendable approach.