HABBENING: Belarus Elections 2020

I have said most of what I wanted to say about Belarus in two recent threads, which have since been enriched by many informative comments:

Hopefully this constitutes a useful background what looks to a pretty dramatic turn in Belorussian politics, as voters head to the polls on August 9 amidst the largest protests against Lukashenko’s rule since he came to power in 1994.

The elections themselves are a mere exercise in formalities. They have long since ceased to have any relation to what people actually vote for (this makes them distinct from elections in Russia, which are heavily falsified in many regions, but nonetheless still correlate with underlying public sentiments). Although Lukashenko would have likely won all of his previous elections had there been impartial counts, this is almost certainly not the case today, when his approval rating hovers at perhaps 30%. (Though there’s no good way to check, independent sociology having been abolished in 2016).

The only question of interest in respect to the elections themselves are what precise numbers Lukashenko is going to have the Central Electoral Commission draw for himself. An alleged leak of teachers at a Minsk school “practicing” the results suggest the following pre-arranged results at their precinct:

  • Lukashenko – 952/1413 = 57%
  • Tikhanovskaya – 102/1413 = 7.2%
  • Dmitriev – 64/1413 = 4.5%
  • Cherechen – 18/1413 = 1.3%
  • Konopatskaya – 16/1413 = 1.1%
  • Against all – 237/1413 = 16.8%

Bearing in mind that almost half the votes in Minsk have already come in from early voting, and Lukashenko’s comments to Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon that 21-22% of the population is regularly against him, and we’re probably looking at something around 75% (modestly down from 84% in 2015). The “minority” who won’t vote for Lukashenko presumably includes his own son, who is a fan of the opposition and in fact (according to Luka himself), as a fan of Gordon, is the main reason why Luka agreed to an interview with him.

Anyhow, the really interesting things are going to happen soon afterwards.

I don’t foresee a successful Maidan in the near future. Color revolution always need elite defections. Lukashenko has firm control of the country and has replaced the technocrats of dubious loyalty who had ran the economy with siloviks in just the past few months. Belarus is also much less oligarchic than the Ukraine (or Russia), so the West has less leeway to weaponize them against him.

However, I do not exclude a harsh crackdown with potentially dozens of deaths, which will surely provoke intensified Western sanctions that will further force the economy in between a rock and a hard place.

And who knows, that perhaps could eventually lead to an actually successful Maidan, or perhaps a security service coup. Unless Lukashenko again secures Russian economic support – but that will now come with strings attached (reintegration).

This scenario is probably the best of the most obvious ones right now so far as Russian interests are concerned. It certainly seems preferable to a Belarus ruled by a West-sympathetic opposition or by a strong Lukashenko increasingly channeling nativist zmagarist energies ala the late Ceausescu.

But it still remains to be seen how Lukashenko intends to play the Russia card. At the start of this month, following the arrest of the Wagnerites, he threatened to deport most of the Wagnerites to Ukraine to face terrorism charges, and said, “You will not put lapti [a kind of Russian footwear] on us or drive us under your whip… You are too late by a quarter century.” Good ROI for $100 billion worth of oil and gas subsidies to the potato dictator over the past decade. /s But a few days ago, he changed his tune; in tandem with the Russian media, the Wagner arrests were now blamed on a Ukrainian intelligence operation, with Lukashenko proclaiming that Belorussians and Russians “are the same people”, that Putin is his “elder brother”, and imploring him to stop “choking us”. The one thing that remains true is that Lukashenko remains superlative at playing hard to get with Russia.

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.

 

Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.

 

Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.

Comments

  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. The one thing that remains true is that Lukashenko remains superlative at playing hard to get with Russia.

    https://m.dw.com/image/52291765_303.jpg

  3. I wonder if Luka is grooming his own illegitimate son to eventually succeed him.

  4. AnonFromTN says

    Luka was dumb enough to burn his bridges on both sides. This is likely the last time he declares “victory” (by massive fraud). His son is a non-started by just being his son.

  5. Belarusian Dude says

    Before Maidan happened Lukashenko was very unpopular. My grandmother is uber-vata and she openly stated he was faking his results, etc. Etc. Generally as Russian and even Ukrainian living conditions started to converge upon and even surpass Belarusian ones and jealousy made pretty much everyone here realize that beyond “stability” Luka has nothing to offer. Even post maidan he was just a lesser of evils

  6. Badly faked elections are really gay. Do the respectable thing and just get rid of elections.

  7. brabantian says
  8. Kent Nationalist says

    It’s lucky for him this happened now, rather than after the election when the anti-China faction in the US is replaced by the anti-Russia one

  9. reiner Tor says
  10. Europe Europa says

    I find it odd that Lukashenko has suddenly become anti-Russian, because from what I’ve read I always got the impression he was very pro-Russian, to the point of going out of his way to suppress Belarusian nationalism and the Belarusian language in favour of the Russian language and a de facto Russian identity.

    I’ve read that even speaking and/or writing in Belarusian in a public setting in Belarus is regarded by many as a subversive act that could land a person in trouble.

  11. Maybe someone can explain what does Ceausescu have to do with this, but, until then,I would like to say that it is fascinating how people can get attached so much to states that exist more by accident, then by nature or necessity.

  12. That’s not a guarantee; in a recent interview, Lukashenko stated that his son Nikolai is supporting the opposition: https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1291111047059906561

  13. What’s keeping him from adopting the Chinese system?
    Sovoks like him should know how it works.

  14. You were not paying attention. There is a reason the RF reduces their dependency from his state.

    Lukahshenko: Russia has neither the money nor brains to develop their own transporter erector launcher [to replace ours].
    Подробности: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/1952292.html
    Любое использование материалов допускается только при наличии гиперссылки на ИА REGNUM.

    A few years later

    New KAMAZ vehicle.
    http://sh.uploads.ru/F3mGp.gif

  15. The tendency for some socialist regimes to become more nationalist-authoritarian/isolationist over time, starting to replace Marxist/leftist ideas with pseudo-historical connections to legitimize themselves – this happened from the late 1930s in the USSR, in Ceausescu’s Romania, in Best Korea ofc.

  16. Yes, I mentioned that in the post:

    The “minority” who won’t vote for Lukashenko presumably includes his own son, who is a fan of the opposition…

  17. AltSerrice says

    There have been some interesting images circulating of Army and OMON troops being deployed inside Minsk, along with trucks carrying barricades and barbed wire. One wonders if Lukashenko is being cautious and preparing to defend against Maidan-style protests after the inevitably falsified results.

    In regards to the plausibility of violent unrest following the election, it is worth noting that Luka’s supporter demographics tilt old. Protesters will undoubtedly be young. It will be interesting to see if he can muster pro-government defence protests to provide an air of legitimacy or if it will be the youth against the security services. If it’s the latter, then the potential for martyrs and continued unrest increases dramatically.

  18. HOMO.

  19. They could always make up, though. Well, at least if Luka will actually manage to remain in power in Belarus.

  20. Meanwhile in Poland.

    The Polish Disease. Poles are such suckass Slavs eager for status-approval from the rich West that they will do ANYTHING to gain globo-homo points.

    If Slavs are such idiots, how long can Russia hold out against the Richer West?

    https://oko.press/the-policeman-pinned-her-head-to-the-pavement-demonstrations-in-defence-of-an-lgbtq-activist-in-poland-meet-with-the-police-crackdown/

  21. Spisarevski says

    Lukashenko and Nikolai remind me of Mengsk and Valerian from Starcraft.

    Also, the supposedly oppositional feelings of his son may actually be a clever ploy so that he is a viable, “fresh” candidate for power one day.

  22. That would be good for the son, not so much for the father who may lose control of the situation and end up isolated.

  23. reiner Tor says

    the supposedly oppositional feelings of his son may actually be a clever ploy

    Yes, that’s what I heard from someone.

    It’s interesting:

    https://twitter.com/tvrain/status/1292553317592322050

  24. reiner Tor says

    Do you have children? Ensuring that your teenage (and totally chad) son inherits the throne is well worth the price of “ending up isolated.”

  25. AnonFromTN says

    Looks like Luka is preparing to declare his victory with close to 80%. I knew he will falsify the results, but I still thought he’d be smart enough to make his vote 55-65%.

    Clashes in Minsk have already started, even though official count is not released yet. Those who financed Maidan are impatient to get what they paid for.

    Waiting for snipers: this trusted CIA scenario worked in Sarajevo, Deraa, and Kiev, and I don’t think CIA has any talent left to come up with anything new.

  26. reiner Tor says

    We’ll see what is going to happen. Such blatant falsification often triggers a color revolution.

    https://twitter.com/tutby/status/1292538957440389126

  27. reiner Tor says

    I often thought about this. Evacuating the dictator’s family means that he has no self-confidence. His underlings (who also must have families) must’ve noticed.

    https://twitter.com/kvoneggert/status/1292542950539505665

  28. I would bet against it as I doubt the elites will fracture as they did during both the Orange Revolution and Euromaidan in Ukraine.

    Lukashenko is almost more decisive/ruthless than Yanyk.

    I am saddened but utterly unsurprised that the kremlinoids and Western Russophiles have gone out to bat for someone who has backstabbed them multiple times and will assuredly do so again, torpedoing their reputation in the process (to the extent they had one in the first place).

    I wonder if those people even realize that treating the results at face value would imply Luka is more legitimate than Putin: https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1292566322786832384

    At least one can understand this weird breed of zmagar-sovok one sees on Twitter:

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1292582216669769731

  29. AnonFromTN says

    Are you aware that 1994 was 26 years ago? That was one year after Yeltsin was impeached by the parliament, staged an armed coup, illegally dissolved the parliament, and suppressed the revolt against him in Moscow, spilling a lot of blood.

  30. In other words, they go “national socialist“. Probably because ‘social’ (or ‘socialist’) policies treat one’s nation as the core of the state – thus they require some isolation from others, or enforced borders. Socialism with borders is simply national socialism. Socialism without borders doesn’t work well.

    Come to think of it, no system without borders works well.

  31. Her we go again.

    https://www.rt.com/news/497543-minsk-protest-lukashenko-election/

    Will Belarus be trashed like it was Ukraine?

  32. reiner Tor says

    The Americans are better at dropping their incompetent and unpopular puppets. Like Ferdinand Marcos, whose opposition (Aquino and then his wife) were also nurtured by the Americans, and eventually he was replaced without the American influence in jeopardy. The Armenian issue was handled better by Russia.

  33. AnonFromTN says

    Will Belarus be trashed like it was Ukraine?

    We’ll see. It’s a tough case: Luka is a piece of shit, but all those other remaining candidates are even bigger shit. In fact, Soros lab-grown shit. In terms of destructiveness, only nuclear war can compete with Soros’ goons.

  34. GoVadgers says
  35. Luka also seems to have testosterone to deal with these “peaceful democracy warriors”.

  36. Probably will write this up tomorrow, but feel free to discuss in the meantime.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1292601248278089735

  37. AnonFromTN says

    Luka also seems to have testosterone to deal with these “peaceful democracy warriors”.

    Yep, in contrast to Yanuk, who had neither brains nor balls, Luka has balls, although brains are sadly lacking. If he were just a tad smarter in the last 3-4 years, he’d have no trouble winning honestly.

    Anyway, now presidents of Poland and Lithuania tell him to refrain from violence. I hope he has at least rudimentary intelligence. You don’t need much brainpower to know that you should hear out the advice of Poland and Lithuania and do exactly opposite.

  38. Best path is neutrality/conditional aid that is tied to meaningful concessions he cannot take back.

  39. Doesn’t look good for Lukashenko. Police abandoning posts, protesters not being shot. He looks weak.

  40. In fairness, Armenia has no choice, I see the comparison being made but its stuck between Turkey and Azerbaijan – and the Americans are far away.

    And is irrelevant anyway, since the Armenian Lobby is not the Jewish Lobby. 🙂

  41. AltanBakshi says

    What a stupid argument, then practically all Communist states in history have been National Socialist. Even Bernie was once a Nazi by your logic.

    https://youtu.be/vf-k6qOfXz0

  42. You can’t really believe that doing nothing at all is the best option, can you? Even if Russia does nothing, the pro-western faction would blame them for imagined grievances.

    Mitleser is right, extracting concessions from Lukashenko is probably the best bet.

  43. Mitleser is right, extracting concessions from Lukashenko is probably the best bet.

    That part comes when the question of whether or not Lukashenko remains in power is decided, though.

  44. Concessions like what? Forward bases near the border with Poland and Lithuania? Federated States of all Russias (Russia, Belarus, Donbas)? I ‘don’t know if this is feasible right now.

  45. Philip Owen says

    The US wanted to stop Ukraine turning to the EU thus overtaking the US as an economic block. This was the opinion of the SBU chief at the time, not just mine. As masters of chaos the US succeeded pressing all the right buttons with Russian nationalists. Belarus has no such importance. As a competent dictator, Lukashenko presumably pays the army and police well and keeps them divided. If not, they will remove him when expedient.

  46. Korenchkin says

    Even if the gay opposition wins Belarus still has a collapse of it’s Sovok economy ahead of it, it has stayed afloat thanks to Russian support and some Chinese loans but you can’t kick the can down the road forever
    This could easily be prevented by more integration with the RF (I seriously doubt the EU is able or willing to save Bulbastan given how they’ve treated Ukraine so far)

    Pity for more Rus’ folk to suffer such a fate, but we all have to face the consequences of our actions eventually

  47. Ben Aris is probably wishful thinking.

  48. Is that really a good idea? After the question is decided, how would concessions be extracted from him? He could easily lean on Russophobia to cement his credentials as a patriot and turn away from Russia.

  49. Expansion of Russian military presence, expansion of Russian language education, shared education curriculums, shared national media, economic integration (i.e. repoing certain assets), the appointment of Russian assets in meaningful positions, free movement for Russian soldiers (so that things like those wagner guys getting arrested can’t happen again).

  50. Re: Armenians, it’s not for lack of trying. Southern California seems to be “blessed” with more of them than the motherland if an afternoon stroll in Glendale is any indicator.

    A Jewish-tier disproportion of them end up in the legal field, lucky me.

    So close to Fairfax and Glendale, so far from paradise.

    As for the Shank, he served his purpose but has vastly overstayed his usefulness. He’s just “bitterly clinging” now and I fear Belarus is going to suffer much worse leadership from the enfeebled apparatchik class he’s engendered. Leaders who suffer from the delusion of irreplaceability don’t foster good successors.

    I expect Putin will be more realistic and responsible in providing for a smoother transition to the post-Putin era, but I’m basing that on hope more than knowledge.

    AK, any past pieces on that?

  51. Yes, a clear sign of the Polish Disease.

    Poles are Slavs who want to be thought of as ‘Westerners’. They are ashamed of their own Slav-ness, which they regard as backward. So, they will suck up to ANY fashion in the West to show that they are with the latest program.

    Poles are such useless worthless cucks.

    Truly a bunch of dumb polacks. To be nice, one is tempted to call it the Polish Complex. But now, it’s a full-blown disease and must be called what it is. It is a truly a Polish plague.

  52. The only 2 Slavic countries that don’t have this cocksucking instinct (a sign of being a noncountry and nonpeople) seems to be Serbia and Russia. Czechia too, perhaps

  53. Re: Americans are useless worthless cucks

    Gay marriage? U.S. – Yes, Poland – No
    Gay adoptions? U.S. – Yes, Poland – No

    Globohomo says “Jump”. Americans: “How high?”

  54. Re: Americans are useless worthless cucks

    I agree. White Americans cucked to Jews, homos, and Negroes.

    But look at the trajectory of Polish society, and it’s following the West.

    In the recent election, everyone under 50 voted for the globo-homo party.

  55. I think Tihanovskaya has more business on onlyfans than in Belarusian politics (or politics in general).

  56. Korenchkin says

    I wouldn’t ascribe any magic property to it
    Had the West played it’s cards better (let Russia join NATO, don’t treat the Serbs too harshly in the 90s and incorporate them into the EU) we’d likely all be faggots by now

    It was thanks to their arrogance that they missed the mark, they expected Russia to fold (just like Serbia did in 2000) and China to open up to liberalism
    Now they face a slow decline into oblivion, oh well

  57. Lesson from last night police can easily put down protests. Next time you see protests not being put down you know they are authorized by some part of elite.

  58. Russia had this cocksucking instinct instinct. Remember the 90s Yeltsin’s years. It seems that Serbia is the Champion of the true Slavic soul.

  59. Swarthy Greek says

    The National-Socialist/Socialist divide was born out of the USSR’s tactical propaganda ploys against its ideological rivals, not some innate opposition, and the subsequent rise of the bourgeois-cosmopolitian left in western countries.

  60. That is mostly true. But Armenia isn’t a Slavic country and there is nt desire on the part of the people there or in Russia to absorb Armenia. Whereas there is such a sentiment among some when it comes to the Russki mir and its relation to the Ukraine and White Ruthenia. The existence of Armenia in the Caucasus, along with its allied relations with Moscow, allow the latter to further project power against any potential enemies -Turkey being number one on that list.

  61. It seems that this Maidan attempt is rapidly deflating. A decisive initial counterattack was the right medicine.

  62. If your only experience with Armenians is in SoCal you probably need to travel more. I hear people talk trash about Russians or post-Soviets in general and I ask where have you met them? The reply: ‘NYC, Brooklyn.’ That explains it.

    I concur, Luka has to go. Sooner or later – preferably sooner.

  63. Bernie last time I checked is for open borders. Although he has been all over the map.

    US is also not a nation-state. Neither was Soviet Union. Those things matter, if you don’t have a real national state, it is impossible to have national-socialism. You can only have a form of cosmopolitan socialism, and that simply doesn’t work in the long run – too many different groups, not enough genetic solidarity, yapping liberals, it falls apart.

    We are again entering era when the best overall system would be a social nation state – largely homogeneous with controlled borders – and strong social policies to protect labor and family. It is very hard to do in US or most of migrant-overrun Western Europe. You figure out the rest.

  64. reiner Tor says

    This is highly hostile behavior from China, given how it’s Russia’s backyard. But Russia was also not that keen on maintaining good relations with China. It started with closing the borders so quickly (while keeping it open to Italy and Europe), and then not sweetening the deal with some help (while Russia sent a lot of help to places like Italy and even the USA), but perhaps the Indian issue was the most important issue, with Russia quickly delivering weapons to India against China, while blocking or delaying weapons deliveries to China.

    It’s obvious that the relationship has cooled considerably. Is it because Russia supports Trump while China supports Biden? (I’m not sure they believe any part of American propaganda about the value of such support, but perhaps they realize that their interests are diametrically opposed in who should govern the only/strongest superpower in the world, which is a pretty momentous issue.)

  65. reiner Tor says

    That has been well known since time immemorial. But there’s always the risk of defection by parts of the elite, and no-one wants to be the sucker holding the bag while the others have already left.

    Of course an elite totally 100% united can hold onto power indefinitely (except if conquered from outside), but it’s never an absolute certainty in a country where the vast majority of the population is opposed to the regime and people aren’t afraid to take to the streets and try to defeat the regime.

  66. Daniel Chieh says

    Belarus media is cobbling together various Chinese mentions to get what they want.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1292776503734829056

  67. AnonFromTN says

    It is impossible to gauge real support for Luka in Belarus. However, it is very likely that real support for the violent “opposition” (Soros and/or imperial goons) is much lower than that.

    In a way, it mirrors the situation in Russia: people very critical of Putin and his cronies are likely 30-40% of the population, but the support for Soros and/or imperial goons like Navalny and various “liberasts” (closest English equivalent is libtards) is in low single digits. People want to change their country, but don’t want to destroy it in the process. Belarus has fewer compradore thieves that Ukraine or Russia, so it has a chance of getting rid of Luka w/o becoming a lowly imperial vassal.

    Both Putin and Luka cynically use the example of Ukraine, where gullible sheeple fucked up their country, almost irreversibly. Modern Ukrainian joke: it does not hurt as much that we screwed up our country, what really hurts is that Russians were right.

  68. Serbia’s prime minister is a lesbian.

    You might want to cross them off that list.

    Related: Belgrade has more butch dykes per capita then any other city in Eastern Europe I’ve been to, even Warsaw, which gets gayer every time I visit.

  69. Yes, please see the continuation of that thread, posted by Daniel.

  70. Philip Owen says

    One country, two systems might indeed be a Putinist solution for Belarus. Make it three systems and Novorossiya can join too.

    I notice a certain amout of resistance by ordinary Russians to the Eurasian Economic Community. There seems to be a feeling that it is set up for Russia to subsidize the rest. LDPR supporters taking a Brexiter small picture view and missing the big picture of expanded trade and conswquent tax revenue?

  71. …relationship has cooled considerably. Is it because Russia supports Trump while China supports Biden?

    I think not. Russia and China signed a long-term energy deal that seemed at that time more beneficial to China (Power of Siberia, etc…). In today’s market it is hugely beneficial to Russia and too costly to China. When you dig deep enough it is always about money.

  72. Vishnugupta says

    I believe the Chinese backlash against Russia celebrating the founding of Vladivostok a few months ago also has something to do with this relative cooling of relations.

    https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3091611/why-russias-vladivostok-celebration-prompted-nationalist

  73. AltanBakshi says

    National Socialism was born as a counter reaction against imagined or real Communist threat after the first world war. Therefore they were rivals from the very beginning, except the Strasserist fringe, which had practically no influence.

  74. AltanBakshi says

    Bernie last time I checked is for open borders.

    “Even Bernie was once a Nazi by your logic.” Meaning he was against open borders four or five years ago, maybe my English is not clear enough?

  75. AltanBakshi says

    Strange choice of words “all-weather partners?” Always when Pakistan is threatened by some country or has some crisis going on, they start to emphasis their “all-weather friendship” with China, although it has been also been used by the Chinese government on multiple occasions.

  76. Well, all English in shorthand forums is fuzzy :)…

    My point is that social (or socialist) policies ONLY work within a closed system: nation-state with controlled borders, preferably homogeneous. Socialist countries that were relatively successful (e.g. Czecho-Slovakia, Hungary) were de facto national socialist with the unfortunate overhang of the Soviet power. Given the obvious current collapse of the global capitalism, where do we go? How do we create viable societies that would combine a nation-state with decent social policies? It might not be possible anymore in US or UK…

  77. Serbian elites may be Euro-Atlantic integrationists but most people have a strong Slavic-Orthodox feeling.

  78. AnonFromTN says

    Looks like Putin squeezed Luka’s balls hard: three Russian journalists arrested yesterday in Minsk are freed. No news yet on others, as well as on “Wagnerites” who turned out not to be Wagnerites at all. Stay tuned.

  79. AnonFromTN says

    Serbian elites may be Euro-Atlantic integrationists

    “Euro-Atlantic integrationists” is a highfalutin way of saying “compradores”?

  80. Kent Nationalist says

    My Belarusian friend (who seems quite liberal and westernised and is anti-Luka) told me that she was not going to the protests, not because she was afraid of arrest but because she was afraid of violent protest

  81. AnonFromTN says

    Sensible woman. Does not want to become cannon fodder for those who don’t give a hoot about Belarus, like the Empire or Soros gang. I despise Luka, I am pretty sure that election results were falsified in his favor, but I’d do the same if I were in Belarus.

  82. Time for Vlad to offer Luka the “Confederation of all Russias” card again?

  83. Philip Owen says

    Absoutely right. In 2014 it looked as though China had bided its time (built its own pipeline to Tajikistan) until Russia was in a weak position. Russia had to pay for the Power of Siberia pipeine so prudently took the long way round through Russian(ish) territory. Then prices crashed but China had made a long term commitment. Now they’ve crashed again.

  84. Re: Americans as low-quality people

    Before our very eyes Americans are becoming a people of low
    quality. The U.S. has now reached stratospheric levels of social
    dysfunction (murder, rape, abortion, divorce, homelessness,
    drug addiction, single motherhood, HIV (and STD’s in general),
    mass shootings, obesity, looting, etc). According to Audacious
    Epigone, there is excellent evidence that the U.S. IQ has dropped
    from 99 to 97 in recent years. The average IQ of California, a state
    with 40 million people, is now probably closer to 95 due to about 3
    million functional illiterates among the illegal aliens, mostly in
    SoCal. And back in the 1960s-‘70s California was the best educated
    state in the nation. Texans complain of poor workmanship in
    construction – nothing fits – when they hire Hispanic crews. Pursuit
    of excellence has been replaced by the principle “Who needs excellence
    as long as it’s good enough.” High levels of social dysfunction destroy social
    cohesion, and partly explain why the U.S. is having such a hard time
    controlling the Covid-19 pandemic. For example, SoCal has much higher
    Covid death rates than Northern California.

    My prediction is that the U.S. is on its way to becoming a low IQ (93-95),
    heavily Hispanic (there are 50.5 million Hispanics already) country which
    may have difficulty building planes that don’t fall out of the sky. It’s sad
    how Americans have permitted their country to be turned into a Third
    World wasteland, esp. on either coast.

    My hypothesis is that these unfortunate developments are due largely to
    the presence of three low-quality groups in the American population:

    1. Hyper-violent low IQ blacks (in what follows I always speak of population
      averages, not specific individuals). American blacks commit murder and
      rape at levels 7-10 times the rate for whites, basic facts that the American
      lügenpresse is desperately trying to conceal from the public;

    (to be continued)

  85. AnonFromTN says

    Time for Vlad to offer Luka the “Confederation of all Russias” card again?

    I am not sure. After all, Luka is a dumb piece of shit. However, there must be something good in his electoral fraud: Plumpeo just condemned it. Only good things make the scum like Plumpeo and Soros unhappy.

  86. National Socialism was born as a counter reaction against imagined or real Communist threat after the first world war. Therefore they were rivals from the very beginning

    Correct about the German movement and it’s party. However nationalism and socialism are both populistic phenomena that arose in the late 18th to 19th centuries in opposition to the old conservative order of rule by aristocracy and clergy. Socialism and nationalism won; World War I proved that nationalism was stronger than socialism but almost all contemporary states feature some combination of nationalism and socialism. Including states run by Communist parties such as China.

  87. AltanBakshi says

    And? Beckow was talking about National Socialism and how Socialism with borders is NatSoc. NatSoc was one of the many different German nationalist ideologies/movements, and had its own peculiarities. No one was denying that socialism and nationalism arose in 18th or 19th Century, or saying that most modern countries are not mixed economies or that they dont combine nationalism and socialism. Why you are trying to create a debate out of thin air?

  88. Lol, Serbs would switch sides at the first instance of the West, especially USA, throwing a bone of any sort to them. All the current pro-Russian and pro-China LARPers would switch overnight if the USA decided to greenlight Serb unification, court Serb demands – in a hypothetical case of USA overseeing Serbia (Kosovo & Metohija included), Montenegro and Srpska unification – there wouldn’t be a more obedient and fanatically loyal lapdog in the world.

    Open your eyes, man. We got what we deserved, a nation of delusional opportunistic subhumans – who didn’t even value their own dead and suffering.

  89. (cont’d) Re: Americans as low quality people.

    The claim that these two groups are low-quality will obviously
    be controversial:

    (2) Germanic-Americans. A huge group: There are 50 million German-
    Americans and 11 million Scandinavian Americans. The presence of
    so many Germanics partly explains why Americans are so violent in
    international affairs: the only country to drop nuclear weapons on
    civilians, invasion of Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, continuing drone
    assassinations, etc. The Germanics brought their militaristic traditions,
    that nearly destroyed Europe, to the 13 Colonies and to the U.S. The
    peculiar fact that the Antifa violence is heavily concentrated in Minneapolis,
    Seattle, and Portland, OR is partly explained by the heavy presence of
    Germanic and Scandinavian Americans in the Pacific Northwest and the
    Upper Midwest. The Germanics and Scandinavians are consumed by guilt, and
    are probably the most cucked white population in the U.S.;

    (3) Americans Jews (2.1% of the U.S. population). Unlike the U.S. blacks,
    they are hyper-aggressive rather than hyper-violent. Because historically
    (in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, later largely replaced by the Pale
    of Settlement, where 90% of the world’s Ashkenazis lived, and now in the
    West) they have been heavily concentrated in parasitic occupations (entertainment,
    indoctrination, propaganda, advertising, pornography, prostitution – e.g.
    most early 20th century prostitutes in NYC were Jewish – human trafficking,
    gambling, banking, and finance), they were not primarily interested in
    killing the host body, but rather in killing its soul (culture of critique) followed
    by enslavement. There is a lot of soul killing going on in the U.S. right now,
    the latest examples being terms like ‘systemic racism’ and capitalizing ‘black’
    but not ‘white.’ The peculiar notion that only whites can be racist flies in the
    face of scientific evidence that says that since we are predatory primates,
    tribalism is built into our brains – white, black or Asian. We all tend to favor our
    tribe, and disparage competing tribes.

    Jews are a peculiar group because, as Audacious Epigone pointed out,
    about three quarters of the U.S. Jews are either atheist or agnostic, i.e.,
    Jews are the least religious group among the three monotheistic religions.
    A cynic would say that instead of worshipping God they worship the
    Unholy Trinity of Wealth, Power, and Fame. In spiritual lore, Jews are
    seen as mid-young souls, i.e., souls that suffer from arrested development
    because much of America has moved on to the late young soul level.

    Soul killing is expressed in many ways: Jewish christophobia – Marxism
    and Freudianism are expressly anti-Christian, Culture of Critique,
    LGBT movement, trying to transform cohesive states into multicultural
    hellholes, antiwhite affirmative action gone to extremes, rewriting history,
    trying to reduce the I.Q, of the white population by promoting
    “black man – white woman” marriage, etc. Enslavement practiced by
    Jewish elites has a long history – it was practiced through usury, alcohol addiction
    (e.g., in Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Jews as innkeepers were effectively
    drug dealers just like the Sackler family is today), pornography, etc.
    Jews are always trying to weaken the (majority) host population. An amusing
    example: No-Fap movement promoted by the Manosphere was once described
    as antisemitic – the sheep had the nerve to rebel against their Jewish
    overlords.

    To their credit many Jews realize that there is something profoundly
    wrong with them (e,g., high rates of mental illness), and are trying
    to improve their genome by marrying white Christians. However,
    the neverending cavalcade of “morally loathsome” Jews is still being
    presented for our entertainment and revulsion. In the U.S. it began
    with Jewish slave owners and traders, followed by hundreds, if not
    thousands, of Jewish mobsters that Hollywood refuses to make movies
    about, banking and finance fraudsters like Madoff, and more recently
    revolting people like Weinstein and Epstein, merely a tip of the iceberg,
    demonstrating once again, as if anyone needed a proof, that many Jews
    have extreme difficulty liberating themselves from being enslaved
    by greed and by lust. I wish them well for, as Buddhism teaches, all
    beings need to become liberated from their attachments.

  90. And? Beckow was talking about National Socialism

    Perhaps there has been a misunderstanding. He did not capitalize the two and did not seem to be referring to the specific party. I think he knows enough that socialism with borders does not equal the NSDAP.

  91. I think time is clocking for Batka. Vlad should convince him to accept the position of President of Confederation of all Rus after this LAST period as Belarusian president. Batka should organize his retirement “a la Wise Nursultan”. Same goes on for Vlad. He should start to think about a hawkish successor (Gerasimov?) and reserve for himself the position of head of the State Council.

  92. Philip Owen says

    The Belarus protests are not going away. There are too many women in the crowds. That’s a marker of persistent protest. Lukashenko need’s to climb down gracefully. Russian OMON can’t save him now.

    There seem to be Police, OMON, Alpha KGB and a fourth group I can’t identify. The 4th group have hugely confident body language and are clearly spoiling for a fight, almost running to it. I have never seen riot gear like theirs before. These are the ones claimed to be Russian. Anyone know who they might be? Interior ministry?

  93. Some want both as well.

  94. A Western new report said that one of the protestors was killed when a device he had exploded. Reminded of how Litvinenko was quite possibly poisoned.

  95. No. Let Luka propose, with a well monitored Belarus referendum.

  96. Belarusian maidanuts are as inept as expected.

    One of the protesters tried to throw an unidentified explosive device at law enforcement officers. It exploded in his hand” and caused “injuries incompatible with life,” a spokesman for the ministry told reporters.

    http://www.rt.com/news/497643-belarus-protester-killed-minsk/

  97. “Injuries incompatible with life”
    Excellent terminology, loving it.

  98. NazBolFren says

    The Chinese system is very different than the Soviet System and is more in line with that of Singapore or the Ancient Chinese method of imperial administration.

  99. NazBolFren says

    The Chinese system is very different than the Soviet System and is more in line with that of Singapore or the Ancient Chinese method of imperial administration.

  100. AnonFromTN says

    I think time is clocking for Batka.

    I hope Belarus would get rid of Luka, the people there are sick and tired of him. I hope they won’t destroy their country in the process, like Ukies.

    Nursultan is 10 times smarter than Luka. Frankly, I wouldn’t trust Luka to run a McDonalds, let alone a country, however irrelevant.

    I also hope Putin is preparing someone (maybe some-two, so the successor won’t depose him before he wants to step down, he is a wily bastard). He is at least as smart as Nursultan, maybe even smarter. Then again, Chinese system of “elder statesmen” essentially collapsed, Xi just buried the corpse. So, who knows what Putin thinks. He might not be sure himself. Still, I hope he steps down before getting senile like Biden. Russia needs a capable leader. So does the US, but the US appears to have degraded beyond savage.

  101. NazBolFren says

    Look how globohomo moscow is and how many women and young people larp western lifestyles in Moscow/St Pete’s, also look at how many people want to leave Russia and tell me how Russia also doesn’t have that cocksucking instinct – difference is – Russia can’t act on it like Poland.

  102. AltanBakshi says

    So Bernie was a “national socialist” four years ago by his definition? Still a bad argument. Open borders is a very, very new idea. I dont get why its useful to label all Scandinavian Social Democracies of yesterday or Communist countries as a “national socialist?” Why to fuddle terminology in this way? How I got in this stupid non-debate with you? If you dont understand my reductio ad absurdum/bernirum, then discussion is pointless.

  103. Peter Akuleyev says

    Russia is also declining rapidly into a dig-and deliver economy dependent on China, while China faces demographic disaster and will likely have a black swan event with its infrastructure in the next few decades. Neither culture has managed to demonstrate any of the creativity or inventiveness you still see in the US, despite everything. Nationalist governments so far have shown no ability to allow talent to flourish without cracking at the seams.

    In terms of quality of life and economic dynamism, the best countries in the world are the ones that combine some level of democracy and dispersion of power with ethnic homogeneity. That is – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Denmark and Finland. None of those countries will probably be able to resist the coming tide however.

    No, the bleak future belongs to the Nigerians, sad to say.

  104. Peter Akuleyev says

    Not to get personal, but I have spent a lot of time in Warsaw and never met a butch dyke there. Are you sure the problem isn’t you?

  105. Gerard1234 says

    You have got the wrong impression there, anon. 2 of the journalists arrested were sewerslime from Dozhd ( liberast TV channel). They should not have been allowed into Belarus, and Belarus police should be ashamed they didn’t at least shoot a plastic bullet in their eyes. These creeps only practising what they are desiring to report in Russia.

    The other arrested was great patriotic journalist Semyon Pegov. He has done plenty of insane reporting, exactly in the centre of all the action in Donbass and Syria…. almost as if he was a combatant also. I think he was released quickly, but he does immerse himself in the action so there could easily have been a misunderstanding causing his arrest.

  106. Gerard1234 says

    What is “dependent on China”?
    The presumed mass sale of our natural resources and privatisation of our state companies to China following Western sanctions against Russia after the coup in Ukraine……. never actually happened.
    China not being our main trading partner would be criminal and stupid. The level of trade with them now should have been reached 10 years ago.
    Your characterisation would be closer to the truth in bordering Siberia and far east regions considering some of the actions of local oligarchs and politicians there…. but would still not quite be the truth
    Russia did also shut travel with China very early following the coronovirus issue.

  107. Gerard1234 says

    Sorry there anon…. you are correct – only 1 liberast journalist arrested yesterday, and that was from Meduza, not Dozhd. Pegov was only released today. Another today from Znak (no sympathy). My general point is at least valid- 3 of those arrested were “Gonzo-style” journalists, so there could have just been a misunderstanding

  108. AnonFromTN says

    cocksucking instinct – difference is – Russia can’t act on it like Poland

    There must be a reason for this. Care to think what it is and spell it out?

  109. AnonFromTN says

    Tikhanovskaya has fled to Lithuania….

    By going to Lithuania she utterly discredited herself. But there is nothing unexpected there. She is a nonentity. When such a nonentity becomes credible presidential candidate, you know there is a serious problem. Luka is that problem.

  110. So, Belarrussian maidan fizzled in just 2 days.

  111. Regarding Russia post-Putin, I suspect like Poland and the Ukraine it will move closer to the US/West.

    As Putin and the older Soviet generations pass away, the post-Soviet generations will predominate, and younger Russians tend to be either Atlanticist liberals or Western oriented Russian nationalists.

    Even though Russia has its own internet ecosystem, there’s still enough influence through the US/Western internet that US/Western soft power and cultural influence have an impact.

    This soft power and cultural influence ranges from mainstream neoliberalism to the online US based Alt-Right/WN sphere.

    It’s hard to see how younger generations formed under this US cultural influence, even if only inadvertently, would maintain an old-fashioned Soviet style Eurasian or Chinese orientation.

  112. AnonFromTN says

    Your opinion is based on the assumption that the imperial world order will outlive Putin. The way things are going, it does not seem likely.

  113. TheTotallyAnonymous says

    Lol, Serbs would switch sides at the first instance of the West, especially USA, throwing a bone of any sort to them. All the current pro-Russian and pro-China LARPers would switch overnight if the USA decided to greenlight Serb unification, court Serb demands – in a hypothetical case of USA overseeing Serbia (Kosovo & Metohija included), Montenegro and Srpska unification

    You know that’s never going to happen. You’re the one with closed eyes if you think this can actually happen. Serbs wouldn’t be in the situation they’re in if this was even a serious possibility. Way too much prestige, resources and effort have been invested and are still being spent into trying to destroy Serbs as a nation.

    Open your eyes, man. We got what we deserved, a nation of delusional opportunistic subhumans – who didn’t even value their own dead and suffering.

    How about you stop being so nihilist and self-hating huh?

    There’s more than enough trash and scum in the world that hates us and is trying to destroy our nation.

    As for the latter part, that can change (in fact, it’s actively changing right as we speak, especially remembering our dead and suffering after decades worth of deliberate suppression and repression of our collective national memory and consciousness).