So in the past few hours Luka has basically leveled up from Virgin sovok collective farm manager to Chad people’s republic warlord.
Даже шах Искандер ибн Лука взял в руки автомат и вышел на путь Аллаха, а вы всё ещё отлыниваете от Джихада pic.twitter.com/ezEWZ0SUzv
— Д///ИХАД (@tvjihad) August 23, 2020
Sure, it’s a larp, but it’s still cooler than how Yanukovych just… ran away. Or how the USSR croaked, for that matter. Those “hardliners” behind the August coup gave up after just three deaths, the losers.
The EU has taken the decision not to recognize him as President, crystallizing the Luka-Maduro and Tikhanovskaya-Guaido comparisons. Though they will continue to do business with the country and targets will be narrowly targeted against the Belarusian security elites. They obviously still hope to avoid a full merger between Russia and Belarus.
Multiple reports of Belorussian state media now referring to itself by the traditional Russian term Belorussia, as opposed to the sovok-zmagarist Belarus. This is making the limitrophes very unhappy.
As Lukashenko has adopted a more explicitly Russia-adjacent line in rhetoric, so the opposition continues to – unsurprisingly, and understandably – distance from Russia in practice, even as they try to assuage otherwise.
Reports the Belarus opposition has excluded Valery Savitsky from its ranks, a regional coordinator for city of Molodechno. Why? This photo with him delivering humanitarian aid for Donbass. Anyhow, nice of them to keep clarifying their real positions on Russia. pic.twitter.com/bZa1WfzrUy
— Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes) August 22, 2020
The good news is that this increasingly makes it clearer whom Russia should support, in a shift from the ambiguities there were just a couple of weeks ago.
And for its part, the pro-Putin part of the Russian MSM has largely abandoned its initial neutrality and now emphasizes the “color revolution from abroad” aspect.
The bad news is that if the opposition does somehow win, then the prospects for a pro-Russian Belarus keep deteriorating, even if the street opposition at large still cannot be described as anti-Russian as a whole. (Though, given what was in the “secret” part of the opposition platform, perhaps that was always a forlorn hope).
This man wrapped in a Russian flag is chanting “Go away!” aimed at Lukashenko. He says he wants better ties with Russia. She and his wife live by the WWII museum and they witnessed the savage police crackdown after the election pic.twitter.com/Wq33aAsPRw
— Nataliya Vasilyeva (@Nat_Vasilyeva) August 23, 2020
But the prospects for the opposition winning any time soon seem to be deteriorating by the day, the “tinpot dictator” optics of Lukashenko strutting about with his gun aside. Though today’s demonstration was the largest yet, at night time… they just went home. Monday is a work day, after all. There is no “hardcore” of deadset zmagarists ready to rush the barricades, as there were on the Maidan. No army units defecting and turning over weapons arsenals to them. The siloviks remain consolidated.
Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.
If you are new to my work, start here.
Some hardcore delusion right there. I cant even imagine how hard Mr. Karlin will cope and seethe after the same happens in russia in the coming few years. Until the very final day he will squirm and wiggle: “noooo the protesters are done, putin will destroy them”. LOL
As for Luka, he is finished.
While I realize you’re some liberast moron, if you have been reading me you’d know that I don’t actually like Luka (his capacity to entertain aside).
You people have been “coping” with Crimea for six years, I’ll be sure to ask you for some advice should that become necessary.
https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1297669739624509442
Top video for 2020: Luka strutting with a machine gun next to some planes. It signals that shadow boxing might be over and the real fight begins. Good, the endless pretence has become tiresome, time for men to be men.
Luka might lose, and Belarus could start splitting regionally into opposing fiefdoms. Or Luka will bulldoze them and become a complete persona non grata in the West – and that would put a damper on attempts to co-opt him. Messy.
Nobody needs or wants this fight right now, so it will probably happen. Luka’s militiamen will drive tractors over the hills to Lithuania and burn rainbow flags. Poles will saddle up and start their long-promised civilizational mission toward the east. At that point somebody will nuke somebody and we will have a nice cherry on the 2020 apocalypse cake.
“Though today’s demonstration was the largest yet, at night time… they just went home. Monday is a work day, after all. There is no “hardcore” of deadset zmagarists ready to rush the barricades, as there were on the Maidan. “
The going home was a right thing to do for Belarus. Maidan is not what grassroots movement do. Maidan is astroturfed with hired kamikazes and provocateurs followed with mysterious snipers shooting both sides.
Belarusian protests are spontaneous and natural. This is their strength and weakness. Weakness because they do not have strategy and leadership. What they need to do is to begin a national strike that could be started with public transportation workers that would be followed with strikes in large factories. If there are any NGO operators there of which Lukashenko speaks they should concentrate on transportation workers. The strikes should be left to men. Keep men inside locked down factories under the occupational strike while street protests and manifestations should continue and be dominated by young people and women. The latter would moderate the behavior of young men easily provoked by infiltrators. Women in white with red flowers can bring down Lukashenko.
Picts of Lukashenko+AK-47 and Salvador Allende+Ak-47 from his last stand vanished form my comment.
I am having a blast reading all the faggots for the last week. Luka is also endless entertainment value. But there is a method to his madness. You can’t argue with the results, even thought I bet 50% at minimum is help from Russian specialists.
They been trying to do this for the last two weeks and failed horribly. No money from outside (100k per factory) and no support inside. People showing up and working. They had limited success while the government was in shock from first wave of protests. But now government is reacting and their efforts are getting countered hard.
There are investigations into strike leaders and coordination council for the protests. Government is getting it’s own supporters out. Government is starting to demonize the protesters. It’s going to become very hard to be anti Luka soon. Generals and Luka starting to openly state the opposition flags are nazi flags. He already promised to fire anyone who is striking. Considering he owns all the means of production you either starve or stfu.
Putin should have married his daughters to Luka’s sons.
Yeah im watching Soliviov’s shows and they clearly are supporting Lukachenko now. Only Jirik was against Lukachenko and supported reunification . The edinoros on the show was even saying that ” Russia now is the only protector of Belarus’s sovereignty”. Bad , stupid move that will cut us from Belarus’s society all for nothing except preserving a fragile status quo. MID’s sovok bureaucrats are apparently too scared to go out of their area of comfort and stop relying on the loyalty of dictators and Russian politicians have rediscovered their obsessive fear of any popular expression . Russian oligarchs will not be sanctioned more by the West than they are now and will be able to spend their holidays in Courchevel as planed. All is well in the best of all worlds for our national elite, which has once again proved itself impotent, corrupt , inconsequential and gullible . As Kissinger said , good tacticians , poor strategists.
I hope that at least Lukachenko made some serious concessions to Putin for this light form of prostitution.
The problem with your advice is that the transport is running, most men don’t want to strike, and Belorussian women look fat in white. So this is not going to work, no matter how much ‘spontaneity‘ you project into it.
Actually, that’s all they have: plans, advisors, pamphlets, Powerpoint slides and slogans. What they need are some street fighters.
Regarding your Allende analogy: what are the odds that the Belorussian army would stage a pro-Western liberal coup? What do you think, 1 in 10? or maybe 1 in 100?
They had fighters. Like 6k of them. That’s what the first three days was about.
What happened to them? Did Luka shoot them? (he has that barely-out-of-cannibalism look, so it wouldn’t surprise me.)
Part of Lukashenko’s problem is that he is too much of a “Chad” leader, which generally means being a clown.
Generally you can divide leaders by this kind of typology:
Uncharismatic, boring, bureaucrats – Putin, Merkel, Theresa May, Obama, etc. (These politicians which try to impersonate our “superego” – apologies for Freudianism, but I don’t know how else to describe their “responsible, impersonal” presentation).
Boring bureaucrat kind of leaders have a benefit that they are easier to defend in public, as they at least give an appearance of careful objectivity in their decisions, and seem to have the authority of society – they present themselves in such an impersonal and uncharismatic way.
On the other hand, the alpha male, clown leaders like Trump and Bolsonaro can “overperform” their polls often, as people were too embarrassed to admit they support them in public. Admitting you support them in public, can feel admitting that you read pulp fiction books, telenovelas, or superhero films, .
I’m not sure how there were ambiguities couple weeks ago?
Sure, that Lukashenko is a rusophobe on a personal level, and tries to diversify away from Russia. But the opposition politics in Belarus, was for years, based from Poland and Czech Republic, and the main attraction is to improve relations with the EU, which is not to mention the nationalism.
A trend I think I noticed in the last week, is that there seemed like there are significantly more old people recently visible in videos the protests (although they are still a minority).
Belarus is a very aging population, so the original protests of young people have inbuilt demographic limitation.
Only 11% of the population of Belarus are in their 20s – so if just you see young people demonstrate, this could still be result of idiosyncrasies of this youth minority “focus group” of the society.
On the other hand, it is if we saw many old people are demonstrating, then there could be indication he is losing support with more important/numerically larger types of demographic in the society.
Right now on /r/worldnews there are 7 threads on the front page about Belarus. Four of them has fewer than 10 comments which looks quite suspicious I have to say. Then there’s 3 threads about Navalny as well.
Lavrov has come down strongly on backing Lukashenko whatever the election result. Lukashenko stays by selling out to Russia. This will be another short term tactical gain like Novorossiya and Crimea and a major strategic loss as another wave of sanctions hit and the Russian electorate show distaste for the repressive politics and the cost of yet more paranoid strutting against non existent enemies.
They beat the living crap out of them and took down their info. If I had to guess they are all still locked up. After the first three days the opposition lost all nerve. That was the first day of ladies in white.
Considering that the US military has made repeated coup threats against Trump, and was apparently stopped only by federal prison guards, I’d say rather high.
Where do you come up with this shit? In what world have you ever seen a government under attack folding or losing support of the masses? Iran and NK are significantly smaller countries and they survived attacks.
Poll numbers always go up when there is conflict because people rally around their leaders.
Color revolutions are a special breed that has nothing to do with sanctions. Color revolutions is usually intra elite split/betrayal. The chance of them working after sanctions goes down not up.
Edit: while I would have hopped Russia take over all of Ukraine they played their hand well from a strategic point of view. I think I can write your opinion off from now on.
BTW, Ukrop coronavirus…out of control.
In that order? 6k is also quite a crowd, what was it like, 5 on 1? Women in white are creepy, few can pull it off, most just look chunky and sad. They need a new icon, how about Belorussian mamas with baseball bats in rubber boots? I might fly to Minsk to see that.
Luka is finished, but not the way you think. The Empire and its vassals (especially the lowliest of vassals, Poland and Lithuania) tried to overthrow him using a small bunch of crazies, like in Kiev in 2014. It did not work: first, Luka is not as cowardly as Yanuk; second, even someone as dumb as Luka learned from Ukrainian coup. The result they’ve got is the opposite of what they hoped for: pro-EU “vector” is dead. Female Guaido Tikhanovskaya compromised herself and her gang by running away to Lithuania and then publishing something close to real program of imperial puppets.
But Luka is finished in a sense that when things quiet down, Putin will replace him with something more sensible and reliable. If he relinquishes power to whoever Putin chooses “voluntarily”, he gets a quiet retirement in Russia. Otherwise he’d have to try his luck with sultan or some other small fry with big ego.
His 15-year old son is getting in on the theatrics as well.
https://i.imgur.com/1zSB20K.jpg
You grossly overestimate the perceived importance of Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania. Even put together they won’t appear like a sufficient reason to use nukes, neither to Russia, nor to the Empire. Neither side has any illusions who is who. Bantustans come and go, inconsequential and disposable in the big game.
The current developments are within the best possible outcomes for the West.
Russia is now tied explictly to an unpopular regime. No more ambiguity. It also makes it harder – though not impossible – to ditch him in a palace coup later on. It simply raises the costs after publicly investing in him. That’s a plus. Putlet’s hand has been forced.
Full integration is really the only option that is truly beneficial for Russia. It can still be done. Letting Russia subsidise and support an unpopular regime and a basket case economy is in the EU’s interest, which is why the EU extraordinary meeting ended with merely symbolic sanctions.
So the yardstick remains that unless and until Russia achieves full integration, any other outcome de facto serves Western interests. We take its young people, Russia gets left holding the bag subsidising the aging sovoks left behind. Win-win 🙂
Yes our friends traveled in this week and all got it. We think from the same party they attended. All mild form though. What’s scary is they had to get tested when traveling in but no one there tests because it is too expensive. Also I think one person can potentially fly back without being screened or reported but I need to clarify. I just heard that his dad will make him quarantine when he comes back.
Otherwise I think Corona played it self out by now.
edit: I some how broke the link. This was reply to Gerard.
Now, you made me laugh. BTW, you are right up to a point: a manly man (using Schwarzenegger’s term) impresses the sheeple more than hapless guaidos, male or female. Luka won this round. If Putin has brains, Luka won’t be playing in the next one.
I always had the impression Lavrov never voices his personal opinions, even since his semi-retirement, so his statements probably represent the attitude of the Kremlin as whole.
I disagree. A state can always use coercion to achieve compliance. Like China with it’s muslims. No one has any illusion that they will be good Chinese in several generations of indoctrination and dilution.
This would be infinitely easier to achieve on rebellious millennials of practically the same type of people as your self.
You confuse easy of revolution in some POS country vs a major power’s back yard. Ukraine is a special case, it was Russia not wanting to go into open confrontation with the west on the west’s terms. They will be coming back for Ukraine. Look up history of Ukraine it was fought over by the Russians, Turks and Poles for hundreds of years.
Big things can come from small places…and you have to admit that some fireworks would go well with 2020. But you are probably right, not much will happen and Luka will make more boring speeches and then appoint his son as a successor. I am starting to suspect that a lot of these people are not well-bred. It shows.
China puts severe limits on the foreign press in Xinjiang.
They also have a compliant diaspora which doesn’t call the Old Country, “racist”; and they have a growing number of far-left supporters in the West.
…and they have Ron Unz.
Nobody can suspect Luka of good upbringing. He grew up fatherless in a village. His highest achievement in the USSR: director of state farm. I think even that was above his abilities.
I don’t think he will be allowed to hand the power over to his son. His last name is toxic both in Belarus and Russia. The best he can look forward to is a quiet retirement somewhere in Russia.
white is color of death
I am always pleased to remind Bismarck’s warnings about Russia:
“Do not expect that once taking advantage of Russia’s weakness, you will receive dividends forever. Russians have always come for their money. And when they come – do not rely on an agreement signed by you, you are supposed to justify. They are not worth the paper it is written. Therefore, with the Russian is to play fair, or do not play”.
Why? He explained:
“Even the most favorable outcome of the war would never result in the disintegration of the main Russian power, which rests on the millions of actual Russians of Greek confession. These, even if separated by contracts, would always come together again just as quickly as the parts of a dissected mercury body”.
“Russian electorate show distaste for the repressive politics and the cost of yet more paranoid strutting against non existent enemies.”
Actually Putin’s approval rating shot to all-time high after the Crimea affair and probably salvaged him from falling from grace with his people at some point in 2010s. The feelings of distaste you’re describing are not shared by most Russians.
I say unification EOY
But its also the color of purity and peace, and the benevolent Goddess Saraswati is always clad in white.
No, they’ve been ICD-10 F24 over Crimea for the past 6 years.
Why does brandishing a gun make him “manly” and “Alpha”? Any wimp can pose with a gun, I don’t suppose it will be him fighting on the front lines when Belarus goes “full Maidan”, but no doubt hiding in a bunker somewhere or escaping abroad.
The idea that the act of simply brandishing a gun in itself is a display of masculinity and virility seems to be a very American idea to my mind.
https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article14996881.ece/ALTERNATES/s810/0_Queen-Elizabeth-II.jpg
If you add tradition as source of authority, you have resurrected Max Weber’s model of authority.
Tradition: Empiricism
Charisma: WILLPOWER
Bureaucracy: Rationalism
Older people often lean toward solutions that worked before; is there somebody who could credibly fill the role of traditional authority in Belarus?
It’s too dramatic for him to retire in Russia – I think he deserves to be acknowledged for the successes and stability during his rule without forgetting his faults and that he has been leader for too long.
He’s done a much better job at leading his country than Shevardnadze in gruzia, Gorbachev, those ridiculous failures like Kravchuk, Kuchma and Yushchenko…yet all of them were allowed to peacefully retire and even be seen as “statesmen” in their own state.
He deserves the same and I think he will be appreciated for what he did get right by everybody and, if not too corrupt in wealth, will be allowed to live peacefully in retirement in Belarus
It seems likely that whatever the outcome a lot of young Belarusians will end up emigrating to the EU.
Apparently Poland and Lithuania are already working on simplifying work permit regulations for Belarusians due to the crisis, so even if Lukashenko manages to stay in place or organise a managed transfer of power the emigration will likely happen and I imagine Poland and Lithuania will get to achieve some of their objectives.
But, Belarusian oppositionists are claiming at the moment that they can be much closer to the EU and prevent this emigration (it’s recognised what kind of implications it would have for the country) , whereas Lukashenko’s actions will cause it… this looks to be wishful thinking or misleading.
The CIA dismissed Fidel Castro an “uncharismatic professional-class dissident” before he started his boogaloo in Santa Clara. Chads are forged. Luka is just another dessicated boomer in America with an AR-15 at this point. Genuinely surprised his son isn’t a transsexual too like most of the freedom lovers in America.
Poland is already full of Ukrainian migrant workers, so is minuscule Lithuania. Is there enough long term jobs for Belarussian immigrants? If there is then it could be a problem.
The picture of Lukashenko holding an AK-47 brings to mind Comment #5 from Simon Tugmutton on one of iSteve’s recent threads:
https://www.unz.com/isteve/r-nought-for-funerals-for-blacks-shot-by-blacks-is-approaching-1-0/
https://youtu.be/GhxqIITtTtU
It is because of replies like yours. Too many limp dicks clutch their pearls when anyone does anything bad ass. That is what separates you from him.
It’s like praising Jesus triggers Christian haters.
Yesterday’s BBC included segment on Belarus which featured a protestor named Roman Zacharia. Be interested to know his background. As spelled, Zacharia is (among other possibilities) a Sephardic surname.
TIL I learned only Americans are men.
Btw the association with men and weapons goes into prehistory but you could just look up Greek gender symbols.
Colour revolutions exist in the paranoid fantasies of fascists.
That was Then. This is Now after the costs of such strutting have been revealed. Russia is no longer drunk on oil money. It has to rely more on its own work which is not so productive not such high quality.
In her younger days, as well as drive and mainain a heavy Bedford truck, in her case an ambulance but it was the military standard, she could shoot a competition pistol. Her daughter Anne has done as well.
Noice.
You are drinking your own coolaid. I remember hearing retards like you claiming Ukraine will take over the break away regions within a year and how Russia will fall apart from sanctions.
Your side’s track record of being wrong is unrivaled.
Tell you what, it’s a very low bar to be better than Shevarnadze, Kravchuk, Kuchma, Yushchenko, or a succession of nonentities in the Baltic vaudeville states.
Luka made life reasonably good for his populace on credit. Luka, as well as Ukrainian “leaders”, was milking Russia. Luka stands out because he shared the proceeds with his people, whereas Ukrainian thieves stole 100%.
A person with dignity and love for his country would be ashamed of being honored by the current Ukie regime. However, the scum like Kravchuk, Kuchma, and Yushchenko do not deserve any better.
Luka might deserve to retire in Belarus, but I am not sure the majority of Belarus population would agree.
You know, I kind of sympathize more with Lukashenko now. If the EU, NATO, CIA and other acronyms hate him so much, perhaps he’s not so bad after all…
Not that I care to much one way or another about that country… The only Belarussian I ever met married an Italian man and has been living in Italy for 20 years… She never once went back. If Belarus enters the EU, the country will likely empty out…
What about this, another false flag? It’s always Germany and/or the UK vs. Russia. And many exiled “oligarchs” live in both countries.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53892900
If anyone from RT is reading this, start preparing a thorough but elevated critique of the upcoming American elections. It’s not like there is a lack of material.
No, RT should cover the urgent issue of oppression directed at gamers, the most forgotten minority. Shilling for Russian studios optional but consistent with original mission statement.
You would be surprised how many white liberals are genuinely terrified of guns. Or think them distasteful.
Personally I don’t think Russia will go fully down the Western road compared to countries such as Belarus and Ukraine. The reason for this is where as Belarus and Ukraine could comfortably fit into Europe, Russia cannot as it is simply too big.
It has more responsibilities to have to consider, such as supporting Siberia. Then there is the whole issue with the Caucasus. It’s simply too diverse and big as a country to join with Europe.
Plus we have to remember that none of these areas actually want to leave Russia. The big breakup happened in 1991. That is not on the cards.
I think there will be changes in Russia after Putin. Mainly of an economical nature. Maybe some liberalisation in some areas. But afterwards, Russia is going to find herself having to find her own place in the world between the West and China.
Who knows? Considering Europe is bracing for more refugees in the near future, debt ridden economics and growing nationalism within the EU, Russia could very well find herself having to take up some mantle of leadership in the future.
But this will be decades down the line. For now, whilst the El Dorado of the West still shines, it’s all going to be about the West.
I didn’t. I observed that the insurgents were sheltering amongst civilians in built up areas so a military solution was not possible short of Grozny like slaughter.
When the Russian state looks for a straw man it picks the UK, not because of present capacity but its image amongst the Russian population.
He knows that you’ve been NAUGHTY
.
https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/reddwarf/images/1/18/Father-Xmas-Waxworld.jpg
It doesn’t matter whether it is manly or not, tinpot dictator chic has its own aesthetic attraction.
Yeah yeah we all are Nostradamus now that it happened. I noticed you didn’t say anything about Russia breaking under sanctions with your answer.
Either way I don’t give a shit to fact checks what you said years ago. My point stands people like you have made the statements I brought up and were completely repudiated.
Best possible outcome for the West would have been a smooth regime change accepted by the other sides.
Burning bridges with the guy in-charge is not a good outcome for them in any way, that is why they try to limit that.
Having a flak jacket and gun is either a total pose to suggest external enemies or a genuine concern that even his close protection team is about to turn on him.
The Belarus people know how much they have been instructed to revolt by highly paid Western NGOs. They will rate the pose accordingly. I doubt it will help him.
To be fair, this does not seem to be a protest that wishes a violent end on him. The Pretorian guard is more likely to tell him it is over rather than shoot him. It is even possible that he could have an honourable retirement in Belarus if he handles this gracefully. It is not yet to late to reject Russian OMON on the streets of Belarus. (or is it).
Russia has already broken under sanctions. That’s why the 2014 countersanctions were needed.
An update for some people ignorance…Belorus people are actually Russians and many have desire to be part of Russia. More homogeneous than all present California inhabitants would lift American flag. Lukashenko’s outlived his usefulness, being in power for too long is his problem especially for younger generation. There are, however equal demonstrations supporting Lukashenko which obviously dishonest and “unbiased” Western media would not show. What will happen in Belarus will decide Kremlin and not Washington.
In Britain, fist fighting is seen as the masculine and honourable way for men to resolve their differences. Anyone whose response to conflict would be to pull a gun, or more likely a knife in Britain, is seen as an absolutely contemptible and loathsome creature and a degenerate.
Maybe this is a idiosyncrasy of British culture, but here guns and weapons are not seen as masculine. The only exception to that is possibly guns in a military context. Masculine prowess in British culture is basically seen as being muscular and competent in unarmed combat, guns and weapons really don’t come into it at all and are very much looked down on.
Actually, this probably is mainly an idiosyncrasy of British culture as Britain and some countries with British-derived cultures are mostly the only countries where the police don’t carry guns, which I think says a lot about the general cultural attitude towards guns in those countries.
Yes. Guns are for pansies who fear for their masculinity.
Well, it’s not like Luka has cardinal problems with Americans.
https://www.spletnik.ru/img/__post/77/77fa8579cdc5d9a133be6bb57f2829c0_188.jpg
In the “foreign backed color revolution” rhetoric a few days ago, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Holland, and Czechia were named as the instigators – pointedly, not the US.
Probably Luka hopes to preserve at least the possibility of the US remaining a “vector” in a revamped “multivector” policy should he survive the current crisis in the long-term without becoming a complete Russian vassal.
https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1297461032370294786
https://zavtra.ru/upl/20000/alarge/pic_1475693633e.jpg
You have some rather absurd beliefs regarding economics and international relations
Venezuelan scenario for Belarus? The anglosionist axis is thinking about the Venezualization of Belarus.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6120382.html
This is an implicit admission of the failure of the Belamaidan. If the axis move in that direction, it will be easier for Russia to re-orbiting Belarus into the Russosphere.
Events are developing according Anatoly’s “optimal path”. Pontryagin principle applied to geopolitics. LOL.
Maybe you can convince your black populace that civilian knife-warfare is so veddy, veddy un-British!
Yes, I also remember the epic scene at the end of Le Morte d’Arthur where King Arthur faces his illegitimate son Morded by stripping off his accoutrements to partake in a mortal contest of dickslaps to the face.
Its all here on Fanfiction.net.
Luka is raising the level of emergency preparedness of his troops and is calling in reservists. Does he know something nobody else does? To the best of my knowledge, Lithuania and Poland, however stupid, are not mad enough to send their troops to Belarus. Or are they?
By the way concerning “Belorussia” vs “Belarus”: in the last days in the news in Germany there were a lot of reports which mentioned “Belarus”. Sounds awkward to me, since as far as I know the country has been called “Weißrussland” before. But I don’t know when the news agencies switched to the new term and if this a recent development.
It is part of the campaign to separate Belorussia from the Russian Federation.
German public television:
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/weissrussland-bezeichnung-belarus-100.html
“Colloquially, the term is okay, politically it is problematic”
I don’t think so. Poland always had imperial delusions above her weight but trying to intervene in Belarus will give Putin the perfect chance to intervene.
They probably object to “Weiß” as much as they object to “russland.”
Meaning, globohomo disapproves of it. In that case, in my book it’s a better term. Let’s at least irritate globohomo.
That’s what I mean. I know that Polish elites are stupid, but are they crazy?
That’s what Ribbentrop thought about Poland. That’s the mistake you make when you do not view things objectively, i.e., when you ignore the preeminent role of the Jews.
Occupied Greater Germany.
I speak as a participant and first hand observer on the ground. I had to let my Russian employees go three years ago. They are still looking for (senior level) work. One a company director before I took her on. another a project manager running $150m projects more than once.
You?
Theatre. “I will save you from foreign enemies” is the technique with which nationalism was invented. Never mind that it was one lot of landlords trying to displace another.
No one believes you.
Well better buckle up, the real stress test is here
That’s what I thought myself, especially considering that the new leaders in Kiev were pro-West and pro-democracy.
I didn’t expect them to go for a blood bath with the whole world watching and needing the West’s support for their new regime. But both the Ukrainians and the West disappointed me. They DID go for the full-on military solution and caused many civilian casualties.
In fact, they recovered most of Donbas with plenty of disregard for civilian lives and were about to rout the rebels when the belated help from the Russians that Girkin had been publicly begging for finally materialized.
BTW, where does the Ukrainian army shelter itself inside the recovered territory, only on open ground?
Are there Jews in Poland? I was under the impression that there are even fewer Jews in today’s Poland than in today’s Germany. Their masters, though, have plenty of Jews in high places. But the US is not suicidal. Why should Poland be?
That’s what I am inclined to think. After all, the US uses this trick all the time (the war on drugs, the war on terrorism, Chinese virus, and other BS), and the sheeple swallows it hook, line, and sinker.
With luck, asset prices will become so low that I will be able to persuade a foreign investor to buy a business or so. Certain sectors like farming are tricky because state subsidies are so high that large foreign investors are better to start from scratch. The market for industrial businesses is not quite so distorted and the service sector hardly at all but the service sector requires engagement with the management of the business.
Nonsense. If they had, casualties would have been comparable to the scale of Grozny (35,000 dead civilians) or Syria (100,000 dead civilians). Instead they took “half measures”, returning fire at enemy positions in residential areas, occasional criminal random shooting, no systematic bloody assault on civilian areas. Total civilian casualties over the past 5 years, about 3,000. This is orders of magnitude lower than it would have been had the Ukrainian government acted like Putin towards its citizens in rebel-held territory.
Actually Russia hasn’t been in such a solid position in generations. You’ve thrown everything but the kitchen sink at them and they’ve just shrugged it off.
The Eu on the other hand looks decisively half dead
And I won’t even bother describing the state that merry old England is in
https://southfront.org/tough-guy-lukashenko-vs-baltic-superpower/
I wonder if as both Russia and NATO are raising stakes, a provocation around Kaliningrad and Suwalki Gap would be possible.
This was one of the potential starting scenarios for a limited conflict between Russia and NATO in Eastern Europe.
Lithuania might also refuse to renew the transit agreement between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
People of Donetsk and Lugansk would disagree. I am pretty sure you are aware of the effects of the early bombing raids and artillery shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That’s probably the main reason why the locals definitely turned their backs on a potential return to Ukrainian rule. Terror tactics rarely win hearts.
There is an unusual comment by a military doctor treating people injured by gunshot wounds during the protests:
“I would like to stress the following: there were about 60 people with minor inuries. I am not really sure but they could be Russians, Ukrainians or somebody else.”
From a largely pro-opposition source:
https://belarusfeed.com/belarus-military-hospital-gunshot-wounds/
Any other news sources cover Russians, Ukrainians, maybe Poles etc. participating in the protests?
If Russia sends troops to Belarus, Lithuania might refuse to renew the Kaliningrad transit agreement. Lithuania might also shut down the only gaz pipeline allowing Russian gaz to reach Kaliningrad.
Kaliningrad would then become the equivalent of West Berlin during the Berlin crisis. Russia would have to supply the enclave by sea and air only.
Russian armed forces might then try to ensure direct access to Kaliningrad from Belarus through the Suwalki Gap.
https://polandin.com/49444421/analysis-could-the-belarus-crisis-have-implications-for-the-suwalki-gap
This might be the real reason behind the relocation of US troops from Germany to Poland.
If such a crisis is to occur, it would most probably happen around the presidential election time in the US.
The only reason they did not was because of Russia. Russia announced they will not allow Russian population to be killed. Last time they said that Georgia called it a bluff and learned a painfull lesson.
Anyways both sides seiged cities in Ukraine and took cities. Low civilian deaths has to be explained by something else. If I had to guess is because both militaries view civilians as their people unlike Arab countries who could give a fuck. Plus the armies involved are much more organized and disciplined.
Probably. But objectively they would be wrong.
Sure. Both sides showed callous disregard for human life, setting up positions in populated areas and returning fire into populated areas. The rebels are located in large cities so Ukrainian forces have killed more civilians than have the rebels- but don’t forget that the rebels also took out a bus stop full of civilians in Mariupol. However characterising the overall effort as a deliberate “bloodbath” is just wrong. If the government’s goal was mass killing, casualty counts would be at Chechen or Syrian levels (or even much higher), not 3,000 out of a population of 6 million in Donbas (4 million in rebel-held areas).
Basically neither side was particularly careful with civilians but neither side was interested in genocide or mass killings.
I just realized my post sounds contradictory. To clarify I think the threat of Russia coming to civilian defense as the bigger factor.
They tried to have in Donbas the bloodbath they expected to fulfill in Crimea. Crimea was promptly negated and in Donbas, Bandera battalions learned to not do it by the hard way (military defeat).
Nonsense. Donetsk with something like a million people is well within range of Ukrainian weapons. Bloodbath in Donbas as in Syria or Chechnya would have been accomplished with shells, missiles and rockets if the Ukrainians wanted to do it. But they didn’t.
I perfectly remember the sentence of a notable Maidan putchist “Promise them all, we will hang them later”.
So there were mass hangings in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in your world?
Filatov was not a Maidan putschist. He is an ethnic Russian decorated with a medal by the Russian Orthodox Church for his efforts in its service prior to Maidan. A member of the Dnepropetrovsk oligarchic group, Filatov was working under the patronage of the Ukrainian Jewish oligarch Kolomoisky. This oligarch had a business conflict with the Yanukovich clan and some East Ukraine oligarchic groups from Donbass, which went closely aligned with Russian interests in Ukraine and Europe in general.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borys_Filatov
As a business associate of Kolomoisky, Filatov was directly interested in Yanukovich losing power and Russian influence being curtailed in Ukraine. He saw pro-Russia forces as a nuisance to be dealt with in order to maintain the benefits of the oligarchic clan to which he belonged.
The oligarchic aspect is very important in both Ukrainian and Russian politics, with a notable distinction: in Russia the siloviki control the oligarchs, while in Ukraine the oligarchs control the siloviki.
The nationalists and ideologically motivated combatants on both sides are useful idiots. Cannon fodder really. Those who do not conform with the oligarchic interests get eliminated on both sides of the conflict.
This still doesn’t delete Banderist whishes. They just had a problem: they were defeated in Ilovaisk. After this humiliation they didn´t tried anymore.
Russian counter battery fire is better.
I didn’t say that the Ukrainians went for Rwanda-style or Grozny-level kind of attacks. I said that they did what any level-headed, non biased observer would readily acknowledge:
This military response brought about a bloodbath: 14,000 dead (almost 4,000 of them civilians), tens of thousands more maimed and injured, blocks of apartments razed, schools destroyed, city centers bombed,…
They recovered most of the Donbas territory showing plenty of disregard for civilian life, as you yourself can’t help but admit. To quote your own words:
Being the advancing army trying to occupy the lost cities, it was perhaps unavoidable that the Ukrainians would cause more civilian casualties than the rebels but the latest figures from the UNHCHR show that last year, with a front long stabilized, the Ukrainians also caused significantly more civilian casualties than the rebels, which suggests that there is more at play than the rebels being in the largest cities.
Generally agree with your comment but there is more at play also. The grassroots movement was huge and critical. Oligarchs alone wouldn’t have done this.
Truly the nuclear option. Let’s not be hasty now.
Kaliningrad has a LNG terminal since last year.
That’s why I wrote that the enclave might be supplied by sea. But if the situation becomes tense enough, supplying Kaliningrad will become quite difficult. That is why Russia will probably need to fight NATO if Kaliningrad enclave is put under blockade by its neighbors.
I think, it was not an “official” Ukrainian policy. It was some kind of “let our heroes do harm. Anyway, Donbas people are inferior sub-human scum”. Off-course they screamed when Ukro-prisoners defeated by Donbas militias were paraded on the Donetsk’ square.
Sure, the conflict was well ingrained into the Ukrainian society so there were vigilantes ready on both sides. And then there were Nuland’s cookies…
How exactly do the oligarchs manage to exert such influence? I mean in Ukraine they’re not very united, as you point out. Not all that long ago, under Yanukovych, the siloviki were officially known as Berkut, and they were quite loyal to their Donbas chieftan, to the extent that they either took orders from him directly or indirectly from some upper echelon FSB/military advisors from Moscow, that resulted in the deaths of 100 Kyivan street protesters.
That’s a lie spread by those who used the same scenario with snipers in Sarajevo, then in Deraa, then in Kiev. Not to mention that under closer examination among those 100 allegedly killed on Maidan at least 20 have never been there. But Dr. Goebbels was right: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it”.
Berkut was simply an anti riot police.
Siloviki is a slang to define all the military/special service/police people in general.
Could you provide evidence for this?
The first shots were fired from the buildings held by the Ukrainian nationalists. The shots were fired on both protesters and the police. Among those who did the killing were several nationalist leaders (Parubyi was one of them). Later on the Georgian mercenaries snipers described in detail how they were taken to Kyiv, where they joined the nationalists operating under Lithuanian advisories who directed them to shoot indiscriminately to break the truce that has been negotiated between Yanukovich and the opposition by Russia and EU. USA needed the truce broken (remember “F*ck the EU” saying by Victoria Nuland).
https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-massacre-and-its-misrepresentation-by-the-west/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/26/he-killed-for-the-maidan/
Berkut policemen, who worked exactly as supposed in line of duty, were not proven guilty of the killings. After several years of trial they were released.
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/court-releases-berkut-prisoners-charged-with-euromaidan-killings.html
The trial itself was a total fraud to cover up this Gladio style Black Ops by the Ukrainian nationalists aided by NATO advisers.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317972686_The_Maidan_Massacre_in_Ukraine_Revelations_from_Trials_and_Government_Investigations
Not according to this description of the events surrounding the murders:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan
And yet, rather small number of civilian casualties. Looks like they weren’t trying to create mass death.
13,000 to 13,200 total dead according to UN (see link below).
About 10,000 soldiers were killed in 6 years of warfare (though most deaths occurred in the first two years). If this was a “bloodath” what would you call an actual war? Was Chechnya a cosmic apocalypse in your terminology?
Your dishonesty is on display again.
UN report, page 7:
https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/29thReportUkraine_EN.pdf
During the entire conflict period, from 14 April 2014 to 15 February 2020, OHCHR recorded in total 3,052 conflict-related civilian deaths (1,812 men, 1,056 women, 98 boys, 49 girls and 37 adults whose sex is unknown).
Another 298 were killed in the Malaysian plane that was accidentally shot down by rebels.
Your implication that I would cover something up is dishonest, also. But it’s who you are, you can’t help it.
Rebels are holed up in densely populated areas, Ukrainians are not (or are, to a much lesser extent).
Here is the front line. Notice the large cities on the rebel side that are right on the front:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg/300px-Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg.png
The Ukrainian government managed to keep clear a buffer zone separating its largest held city, Mariupol, from the front. Rebels haven’t done so, they have densely populated cities right on the front line.
When the two sides exchange artillery fire more civilians on the rebel side are bound to get hit, unfortunately.
See footnotes 318 – 320 of the wikipedia article quoted above for more direct corroboration that you’re looking for about Russian involvement.
I had no idea they lost control of Sloviansk and Karamatorsk after Ilovaisk, thus preventing them from hanging everybody like you say they planned to do.
A counterpoint to Katchanovsky’s claims:
https://ukraineanalysis.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/the-snipers-massacre-in-kyiv/
The author, David Marples, has been involved with exposing Banderist crimes in Ukraine (he is linked to Himka) so he is not at all some sort of apologist for the Ukrainian far-right.
A more biased nationalist source also provides other explanations:
https://ukrainian-studies.ca/2014/12/01/taras-kuzio-study-ukrainian-nationalism-university-ottawa/?fbclid=IwAR1u0bRBMav9QCVOELanjliIwjc6LRAWgDWQJamtmnSV1D_wPBzFDnfEqSI
There are various additional explanatory hypotheses for the shootings that Katchanovski never even considers, such as the chaos that results during pitched battles or the collateral damage that results from the actions of different police, Security Service (SBU) units and vigilantes (some of whom had ties to organized crime) involving weapons. Also, the possibility of Russian actors is for some reason never even entertained by Katchanovski. Ukayinska Pravda journalist Serhiy Leshchenko in his new book titled “Mezhyhirya Syndrome” about Yanukovych’s presidency investigates the influence and involvement of President Vladimir Putin and Russian intelligence operatives in Ukraine. Even Putin has admitted that his forces assisted in Yanukovych’s fleeing from Ukraine.
A Western journalist in Kyiv that I interviewed (who desired to remain anonymous) heard from a number of sources that some of the snipers were from Russia. “One source from the presidential administration told me several times in December through February that Yanukovych had brought in mercenaries from Russia and had them based somewhere in central Kyiv, adding that it was not sure what the arrangement was and whether Putin had a direct role in providing them, but it was clear they were ready to shoot at the protestors if needed.” The role of “The Family” was also a factor in the snipers’ activities and later in the violence in the Donbas: “After the sniper shootings took place, this source said he heard from good sources that Yanukovych’s elder son gave the de facto orders to shoot. A second oligarch source said Yanukovych’s eldest son ‘Sasha’ gave the orders to shoot as he was sitting in the situation room.” On leaked intercepts of police radio traffic the words “Sasha, Sasha” are audible. The Western journalist investigating law enforcement officers asked who the snipers in black were, and the Interior Ministry and SBU claimed they were not their men and that they didn’t know who they were.’
Here’s even more informaiton regarding Russian involvement during the last days of the Maidan, leading up to the murder of Kyivan protesters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Euromaidan
Do you really need more help in connecting the closely situated dots?
FYI, Nalyvaichenko was (and is) a known CIA asset. Goes to the credibility of his testimony.
Surviving Georgian snipers told their story, scared by “accidental” deaths of their colleagues. Obviously, those who directed Maidan scenario subscribed to the wisdom that dead people tell no tales. The story told by snipers directly contradicts globohomo lies spread by the US, it’s vassals, and puppets (including Kiev puppets).
Why don’t you quote CIA directly, quoting instead its shills at Wiki?
Stopfake tells a different story about alleged Georgian snipers:
https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-georgian-snipers-shot-maidan-demonstrators/
Micalessin’s film is based on the “sensational admission by three Georgian mercenaries” – Alexander Revazishvili, Koba Nergadze and Zalogi Kvarateskelia, who Micalessin claims were sent by former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to participate in Ukrainian opposition activities. (The Maidan shootings took place in February 2014, Mikheil Saakashvili’s presidential term ended in November 2013. Ed)
Koba Nergadze claims he was recruited into Saakashvili’s United National Movement, as proof he shows a party membership card filled with spelling mistakes, bearing the name of a nonexistent organization, the “Security service of defence”. All three of the alleged Georgian snipers talk about their American curator Brian Christopher Boyenger and claim their actions were coordinated by Mamuka Mamulashvili, a Saakashvili associate.
https://www.stopfake.org/content/uploads/2017/11/08.png
https://www.stopfake.org/content/uploads/2017/11/09.png
Micalessin uses video footage of a press conference featuring Mamulashvili and Brian Boyenger as implied proof of their participation in the shootings. He does not mention that the press conference took place on February 24, 2016 and was devoted to the Georgian National Legion and its role in the war in eastern Ukraine. Mamulashvili , the Legion commander says that he was not in Ukraine during the Maidan revolution. Boyenger said he was previously in Ukraine in 2015 to train volunteers.
The Georgian Legion has dismissed Micalessin’s film as an attempt to discredit the Legion and Mamulashvili.
The film is filled with inaccuracies in the timeline of the shootings that took place on February 20, 2014. It features a video uploaded to YouTube by Konstantin Piontkovsky filmed shortly after the killing of Maidan activist Volodymyr Melnychuk. Someone is heard asking, where were they shooting from, from the Ukraina hotel, someone answers. Security camera footage showed that Melnychuk was killed by fire from the Ukrainian National Bank building.
The Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s office expressed surprise that Micalessin did not contact any Ukrainian officials for his film. According to the offices’s Special Investigations Department chief Serhiy Horbatiuk, the men named in the video were never in Ukraine. Their claims that they were shooting at both sides, the police and at demonstrators, are inaccurate and contradict all investigations and existing eyewitness testimony, Horbatiuk said.
One of the Georgian snipers says they did not get direct orders to fire on anyone, another says such orders were issued, one says they stayed in a hotel in a southwestern area of Kyiv, another says they were based in a hotel on the Maidan. Two of the alleged snipers speak Georgian, the third speaks flawless Russian without any hint of a Georgian accent.
No, I didn’t say that you were “covering up” anything. What happens is that I gave a very uncontroversial description of the events in Donbas and, as so often in the past, you decided that it was your duty to dispute it but, being of course unable to do it, you couldn’t avoid making contradictory statements.
At the beginning I thought that this knee-jerk reaction of yours whenever I mentioned the disastrous Ukrainian decision of confronting the Donbas rebellion with a bloodbath without parallels in Europe since the Balkan Wars was due to your being a Ukrainian nationalist. But nowadays I lean towards the idea that it’s all due to some psychological problem that compels you to have never-ending, repetitive online quarrels.
It is well known that insulting unknown people on the internet and abusing prescription drugs are the two major addictions of the moment. I hope that you only indulge in the former.
PS- Based on the OHCHR pdf, the figure of 3,000 civilian deaths looks closer to reality than the 4,000 that I used. I’m not sure if I used it based on some news article that I read or perhaps I remembered that in previous years the OHCHR declared that their figure was likely not complete and didn’t include hundreds of missing persons. Of course this changes nothing about my original comment #96, as any non-perturbed person would be able to understand.
PPS- I don’t think that the size of the cities occupied by each combatant has much relationship with who causes more civilian casualties nowadays. Lately most of them have been occurring in small settlements close to the fronts. But the Ukrainian army is composed of far-right battalion volunteers (especially active on the front) and conscripts from the whole country (many of them from the West). It’s by no means implausible that on average they have more disregard for “Moskali” civilian lives than the rebels, most of whom are local Donbas people.
.
Like Saakashvili?
A lot of Gruzins born in Soviet times speak a flawless Russian without any noticable accent…
https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/03/zaborona-vs-stopfake-what-is-hiding-behind-ukraines-ongoing-media-conflict/
Not sure whether they really qualify as a valid fact-checking agency.
I have connected the dots a while ago. See my comment about the oligarchs above…
This was a reply to comment #135 by AP. The connection between the comments got interrupted somehow.
No wonder. Stopfake is a well-known fake producer.
You mean you really believe that Yanukovych (or his son) couldn’t be capable of giving the orders to use lethal force to still the belligerent protesters? Things were going from bad to worse every day, and the crowds were standing on the cold and hungry streets for what, 4 months already? Some were already dead before that fateful day of February 18. To me, it looks like Yanukovych had reached his last straw, and it makes perfect sense, knowing his thuggish and megalomaniac character, that he, or somebody very close to him would give such an order. I don’t see any reason at all to put any stock into any flimsy and unsubstantiated claims of a Kochanovsky, to believe in any weird and complicated conspiracy theories, black ops or false flag operations.
Who had the most to gain if the quelling of a couple of hundred demonstrators had worked and sent the majority of the demonstrators back to the comforts of their homes? If they had, Yanukovych would still be hanging around today robbing his country blind.
Protests still going strong.
https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1298338782589190144
I just can not grasp how can people still cling to 2014 Maidan propaganda with all the info which is available now.
Even back then it was obvious that it was not peaceful protestors vs. gov police thugs.
For example one moron fell from the colonnade which he climbed to throw Molotov cocktails from, there were also photos of Maidan-nuts setting themselves afire with their own petrol bombs. Darwin award & Karam in one – congratulations.
As for the shooters. Apparently there were a number of them with various affiliations including terrorist – provocateurs among the Maidan-nuts themselves. For example a certain Iwan Bubenczyk (this is how his name was spelled in Polish media) and some others who even bragged about it.
While Yanuk was a SOB and a WD at the same time this does not somehow negate the dirty side of Maidan and denying it is living in alternative reality.
Many of them were there( as in the 4 months that Maidan was on) …and died of heart attack or a car crash completely unrelated to the shootings.
Other things missed are that Yanukovich when he was impeached had “fled” the country….to Kharkov ( or was it Crimea?). Both him and Azarov say that their cars or wives cars were shot at
So what.
In Spain (Catalonia), in Britain (anti Brexit), not to mention France, we saw much bigger protests to no effect.
I don’t think the majority is against Lukashenko and I definitelly don’t think the majority is against closer ties with Russia. And the most important thing in democracies is to respect the vote of the majority, isn’t it so?
As for Viachorka “We are witnessing the convulsions of the Soviet Union.” LOL.
On the contrary, the mood of the epoch is changing.
A powerfull realisation is brewing that a terrible error has been commited which needs to be rectified, and it will be.
Phil, you are obviously not that smart ( or pretending). It’s ridiculous to propagate the idea that a person running $150million projects would not be able to get a job in three years…particularly when the construction industry in Russia is going quite well despite the drivel in your posts.
“Broken under sanctions” is again cretinous drivel. I suppose it could be subjective in that 4% growth for China and India is a disaster, but great for most other countries….but unless you tell me what numbers you consider as “broken under sanctions”, or what side effects ( crime, failing infrastructure, health etc) then I can’t take seriously nonsense like that when Russia’s GDP growth has been at the same level, or even better than Germany,UK, Italy, France and nearly all EU countries.
FDI is low – but not for meritocratic reasons – every measure shows that the investment climate has improved
Credit market for individuals and businesses is gigantically different now compared to before 2014 – far more loans , much larger amounts and at much lower interest rate ( still some distance between rate now compared to western rates but going in correct direction) now than 6 years ago. If you had asked anybody in 2013 if this was a possibility in Russia then everybody would be thinking probably not….or that the whole market would collapse because us Russians would not regularly follow our payments. Which of the major companies had bad results last year?Not many
Banderastan economy is a disaster…..I would add that Crimea growth last year was about 5.5%
The rebels were emphatically not Donbass people. I lived intermittently in Saratov at the time and significant numbers of people, for example a minibus full of 15 “Cossacks” (13 came back) from Balakovo were reported in the media as going to the Donbass. The local media sent a reporter to interview two complete companies fighting near Gorlivka. There were so many volunteers that only people with recent military experience were accepted. Pay varied. $1000 a dead Ukrainian (Motorola’s lot), $300 for battle days or Girkin’s $300 a month. The Cossacks appeared to do it for keep and glory. There were Cossacks on both sides of course.
Then there was my night on the train with the tank fitter from the Russian army. He couldn’t wait to tell me about his summer of extended leave. He spent it earning $$$ at a tank maintenance school in Rostov. Not to mention Girkin’s own account on VK.con. He complained that only 70 locals turned up to join him and all were over 40 and unemployed. Until he started paying Russians he had very few men. The Cossacks greatly outnumbered him at Slavyansk. Even so, they were enough to start the mischief.
She did a major shopping centre in Sochi and one in Saratov and a major busines centre from finding the base tenants to overseeing the construction. No one has been launching retail and commercial projects in Russia since 2014. I was offered a chance to take on the sale of Aviapark in Moscow. This is way outside my league and specialties. That it came my way is an illustration of desperation.
Right now I am in discussion about modernising a river port on the Volga. A grain port no less. It should be flying out of the window. Three years trying the usual channels have left them a bit desperate. Long term credit is scarce, expensive (albeit coming down – bank rates now about 4.24%) and requires 120% or more collateral. Equity investment is even scarcer. Government money comes with strings attached that most Russian entrepreneurs don’t want near them. Anyway, government funding is never for the whole package. It suits Soviet leftovers in manufacturing. The Chinese were wrongfooted by over rewarding Yakunin and are now staying out. Every single Indian firm I know of has been more than naive. (All state owned so I suppose expected).
Russia is in fact very very cheap for foreign investors with very high returns but Putin’s adventurism has pushed the political risk profile so high that it puts everyone off (and locking up the biggest foreign investor on charges that would not be criminal in any other country doesn’t help). For a straightforward industrial or commercial investment the risks are actually low but that is not the perception.
You would think import substitution might be working well by now. I give you the SSJ100. So far as I can tell, all the planes sold to foreign buyers have been returned. The maintenance costs soared once the newness wore off. As much as anything it was a management failure with the spares supply chain (but that is a Russian meme). There have also been 4 hull losses from a fleet of 130. Bring back the YAK42.
Not just tech. There was a wave of pig farm building 5 or 6 years ago. The biggest firms are coping. With the middle sized firms, the equipment needs maintenance that it isn’t getting. The pigs have long been fed a bit too much barley and not quite enough soya with some skimping on the supplements. So yields are way below what they could be. Pork production exceeds demand because demand slumped due to high meat prices, exacerbated by Russian counter sanctions and now the death of the Chinese swine herd.
What should happen in Belarus? Not what you think is going to happen but what shoud happen?
I take it as read that Lukashenko falsified the results. I don’t take it as read that he necessarily lost, especailly as the leader during the SARS2 crisis.
So, In my view there should be a rerun. That can’t happen without some face saving on bath sides, particularly Lukasheno’s. Whoever steps in to save faces can’t be the EU or Russia or even both of them because it will degenerate into Russia pushing “sphere of influence” levels of interference. Some retired politican from Turkey or Egypt or India should be the go between. As L has suggested, tweak the constitution a bit to justify a new election. He might even win.
Lukashenko needs to be offered an honourable escape route if he loses. In the UK, the post of Master of an Oxbridge college is usually quite attractive enough to keep former security and political risks quiet. Give him an honorary University post, even some teaching and an uncontroversial spot on tv, less political than the Alex Salmond show. Pig Farming for Experts perhaps. Also of course a large country mansion in Belarus (close to the Russian border?). Guards of his own choosing for life.
Impressive. Quite a knowledgeable fellow you are.
From river ports to pig farms, you seem to have done your job well.
But do explain this statement a bit more:
I see contradictions here.
As far as SSJ100 is concerned, I could accept that spare parts could be an issue, based on Russian sterotypes. All foreign customers returning planes requires links and a bit more details.
As far as hull losses are concerned, 2 were lost due to pilot blunders (Indonesia customer’s demostration flight and Island plane systems testing). A third accident occured also possibly due to pilot error, the Moscow accident.
That leaves 1 plane lost due to equipment malfunction, fortunatelly without any casulties.
And here is one very good example of “whataboutery”: what about Boeing 737 Max?
Give Russians some slack and time. The last time they were authentic, industrious and mercantilistic on par with the British was probably during the time of Ivan the Terrible.
I respect your personal experiences but they’re hardly solid proof for your emphatic assertion. In fact, both the former President and Internal Affairs minister of Ukraine would rather disagree with you:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass#Police_and_military_defectors_and_deserters
That most rebel militants in Donbas are local people has been recognized by almost everybody, including the Kyiv Post and the BCC. Wikipedia states the following:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass#Combatants
And every time there has been an exchange of prisoners almost everybody on both sides are Ukrainian citizens.
Perhaps a majority of the combatants at the beginning came from Russia, I don’t know. But the huge crowds of people taking part in the separatist referendum and the numerous civilians putting their bodies in front of the Ukrainian tanks were definitely locals.
If the Welsh ethnic majority of a small English region adjoining Wales, say in Herefordshire, were to organize a rebellion against an anti-Celtic London government, I would also expect many volunteers from mainland Wales to go and join their co-ethnics but this does not necessarily mean that the rebellious feelings of the locals were not genuine.
In any case, it doesn’t make any difference to me that Donbas joins Russia or remains in Ukraine. As long as the wishes of the majority are taken into account, I’m fine with any arrangement.
My biggest problem with this whole situation has always been that Ukraine chose to use a purely military solution to a real political problem in a region full of people with divided loyalties and pressed on it and doubled-down even when they realized that their solution would inevitably cost many innocent lives of their own countrymen.
The British have fortunately shown a much more civilized approach in Northern Ireland and Scotland. If they ever resorted to bombing civilian areas and killing thousands of innocent people for the greater good of the Kingdom, I’d have the same feelings.
Girkin (nom de guerre Strelkov) came to Slavyansk with 52 men. When he left Slavyansk, his group counted more than a thousand fighters. The difference was locals who joined voluntarily.
Russia produced only 60% of its pork needs. So the government encouraged investment in pork farms. Very large investments in modern pork production came on stream. Production now met about 80% of demand. Then the rouble collapsed. The price for pork in international so in rouble terms, the price of pork rose dramatically. Consumption fell. With the fall in consumption, Russia could supply its own needs for pork.
There were additional factors, African Swine Fever destroyed a lot of traditional small farm production in Russia. Then it reached China. A huge proportion of the Chinese swine herd has been destroyed. As a result, pork prices remain high. Demand remains low. Current production meets demand and quality (low fat) is not required to compete. Only this year has China approved Russian pork and chicken as fit for export to China. Partly, of course, there is almost no infrastruture in place for transporting bulk and frozen goods to China. It’s less than two years since grain trains made it through. It’s less than 5 years since coal could be shipped by rail. Chinese goods coming the other way are higher added value and can bear higher transport costs.
Additionally countersanction bans on import of EU, US and Canadian pork made sure that prices in Russia were a little higher than the international price, set in Chicago as there was less competition. Similar things have been happening in other forms of protein production with adjustments to reflect the experience.
There has been a considerable investment in dairy production. The Russian government gave early priority to foreign dairy brands investing mostly for export. So Indian, Thai, Saudi, German, Vietnamese even Chinese firms have had their giant farms and dairy parlours paid for so long as they provided the marketing expertise to drive exports. Thus Russia has compensated for losing European cheese supply. Palm oil sales are finally dropping. More recently local firms have also been subsidized to set up dairy operations up to and including ice cream. Russia now exports ice cream (mostly to Ukraine).
Once Malofeev stumped up the cash. Girkin explained the sudden emergence of cash as resulting from robbing the local banks.
I remember the policemen well. The Ukrainian interior minister had, impulsively, sacked them all a few days previously. How firmly they should be counted in the army I don’t know. At the time I was prepared to count them all. The PR man who was the Donetsk Prime Minister for a while said there were 7000 foreign fighters (not all Russian) a few days before the police were sacked. Give Girkin 1000 add the 2000 Cossacks in Slavyansky with him and that leaves 4000 in Donetsk. More than enough to account for all the trouble up to Northwind.
I did not know that doing business in a country gives one such vide insider knowledge in so many diverse areas. Also one has to be really lucky to meet a guy engaging in clandestine military ops who openly brags about it – some people are really fortunate, I am full of envy …
That said sanctions and Ru gov money for development presented HUGE opportunities the potential of which was clearly not utilised to the full extend possible or even close to it. There are a lot of things that neither were nor are being done or if done it is both too little and too slow.
However the bottom line is that Russia was supposed to collapse financially, starve, possibly even implode. It did not happen and the only thing left is to gnash teeth in anger and point out that Russia could have made more out of the situation.
Similarly in parts of the Ukraine local residents, local gov, local law enforcement and even militaries defied Kiev. These are facts which were objectively observable at that time by anyone who wanted to notice them.
Again there is no way around it and if one does not want to be left only with angry teeth gnashing the only option left is to point out that Russia provided all kinds of assistance there manpower including.
Are you telling me that Ukrainian soldiers who murder, maim, rape, and rob civilians in Donbass are not paid by the regime that directs their actions? Are you naïve, dumb, or both? Or simply a paid troll?
All those actions are war crimes. Not much evidence being presented.
Travelling by train in Russia is a very good way to be informed about the country. After people get over their disbelief at meeting an unaccompanied foreigner, they can’t wait to tell you about their lives. The senior officials are usually drunk even before they board the train. Another time, there was an FSB colonel who described the drug smuggling business to me. Then there are the Chinese salesmen selling industrial size condensing boilers to a competitor of my client. Naturally, foreign embassy staff fly everywhere and learn nothing.
In the absence of compelte market signals, government money is being invested in lots of low return projects. Between 2008 and 2012 as Prime Minister, Putin spent a lot of time out of the office travelling around. His ear was captured by producer interests. As a result subsidizing producers is the economic priority in Russia. This is the way to Argentina or back to the Soviet Union or in a milder form, post war UK up until Thatcher.
Granted there are some Russians who like to brag – had some experience with this myself – but nine / eight out of ten are just attention hoes spouting BS hoping to impress their interlocutors. Of course some really juicy stuff is sometimes spilled out but this tends to be an exception confirming the rule. Thus, with all due respect sir, I remain sceptical.
We live in the get rich very fast era. Most of business is interested in quick buck via financial manipulation not investment into production. For this reason in today’s world manufacturing needs public support which can take various forms. Take Musk for example – he would not be able to get any of the high tech stuff done without gigantic subsidies and he is no exception. An even better example are the Chinese who are very good at it with SOBs facilitating the financing of manufacturing sector and that without the inflationary effect because all the ‘money’ are just electrons & symbols to balance the books without excess cash flooding. The Russians are still lightyears behind in this as it is one of the fields which they neglected. They need to catch up on this if they want to get ahead.
Let me add that Putin’s decision to prop out the manufacturing sector was the right one. The same goes for agriculture. The reason is very simple: if you want to import you need first either to earn or borrow the money for it and then you spend it right away for the imports. At the end of the day the short term need is satisfied but the very next day the cycle starts again. At least Russia having money from exporting commodities did not accumulate a crushing debt. The only way out of it is to strengthen your own agriculture / manufacturing and other ‘producing actual stuff’ sectors of the economy. Another positive effect is job preservation / creation. Putin went in the right direction but thus far the execution was far from perfect – I would say not above grade C.
Which dumbass “god” is irrelevant to Belarussians/Russians and all of us.
You claimed that Ukraine went “for a bloodbath” and lied about the number of civilians killed.
I proved your claim was false and provided a link, forcing you to acknowledge this.
There you go again, with your dishonesty. Second Chechen war occurred after the Balkan wars and had 25,000 civilian casualties – over 7 times more than in Donbas, with a smaller population. (first Chechen war was even bloodier but that was earlier).
All because I correctly identified your pattern of dishonesty. Правда глаза колет.
I correctly described you. In the past I provided friendly advice to you – be honest, and you won’t be described as dishonest. You have failed to follow this advice. Well, it’s hard to change a fundamental part of your nature.
I have had various debates and disagreements with people such as Dmitri who are not dishonest and have not called them such.
So Tuvans, Kalmyks, Buryats and at least about 500k convert Russians(and others) to Buddhism and Hinduism are irrelevant to you? Are they all not Россияне? You are free to have your opinion, but its quite silly of you to claim that your viewpoint is somehow universal and normative.
Oh grow up and join the real world. It would be wonderful if we didn’t need guns. We do and we will.
Someone trying to kill, rape, or rob you is not a “man trying to resolve differences.”
Try reasoning with the attacker instead of drawing a gun and you end up dead, paralyzed, badly beaten, raped, whatever the attacker wants. Propose “an honest manly fistfight” with an ill-willed aggressor and get shot, stabbed, swarmed by a group, kicked while you’re down, and worse (if they can muster the strength to keep hitting you while they’re laughing).
Tell the woman, the elderly person, the handicapped person, the injured person, the small and slightly built man, to reason with the attacker or fight him off with her own bare hands.
Or use “pepper spray”, yeah that’ll do it. Blow that “rape whistle” and yell “no” and kick and hope for help to arrive quickly.
My friend was raped as a teen; a good gun-banning “liberal”, she was of course not carrying a gun and sanctimoniously insisted on doing volunteer work in the heavily African city of Trenton, New Jersey. She traveled to and from the volunteer site alone. Even after the fact, she remained in favor of confiscating everyone’s handguns (so that other women in that situation would be helplessly savaged).
By contrast, my sister was accosted by two men in a parking lot at night after teaching a classroom course in Albuquerque, New Mexico. She placed her hand on her gun, warned them that she was armed, and told them to leave the area. They didn’t listen, smirking and advancing on her instead. She pulled her gun out and pointed it and suddenly they decided to turn and run like the tough guys they were. (Unfortunately for them, what they didn’t know is that the OTHER course she taught was a Self-Defense With Firearms course for women. Delicious justice.)
Should my sister have tried to resolve their “differences” by pleading with them, or proposing that she, a small weak woman, box the two of them to determine a winner?
Do you advise your wife and daughter to go about unarmed in cities and try to “resolve their differences” with a mugger or rapist? I really expect an answer.
Plenty of gunowners can readily correct your bitchy, mocking, painfully naive attitude without using a gun. You can show us how they are pansies and you are tough.
Do you advise your own wife and daughter to go about in cities unarmed and try to “resolve their differences” with men who try to rape or assault them? Yes or no.
Don’t talk like that, you’ll just get Europa and Phil excited.