There’s been reports of a Ukrainian military buildup in the Donbass for several weeks now. The Saker, amongst others, has also reported on them, quoting a Telegram blogger who is claimed to have good sources in Kiev:
“A while ago, an order came from the office of the old senile Biden to prepare the VSU for an offensive in the Donbass, but wait for the final go-ahead from the White House. At the same time, this source also said that similar military operations will be conducted in other countries where there are Russian interests, in order to deflect the public attention from the Donbass and weaken any support for the Donbass”.
My main reason for skepticism that the Ukrainians have serious aggressive intentions is that the Ukraine is still in no position to carry out an “Operation Storm” on the LDNR should Russia intervene.
But then again, as a recent report from Strana suggests, that might be the entire point.
They make the point that violations of the ceasefire are now routine. Old positions have been reoccupied, with the demarcation zone on the front line shrinking from a safe 2-3 km to just 400-700 meters. There is a high level of preparedness, permissions to go on leave are short, there are many videos of tanks and armored vehicles being transported in. The source notes that there has been studies of the recent Karabakh War, especially the usage of drones. (Ukraine acquired 12 Bayraktar drones from Turkey last year and is slated to acquire five more this year).
There has also been an intensification of patriotic rhetoric and a shutdown of pro-Opposition Bloc (more Russia leaning) opposition outlets with the approval of the US State Department. This campaign has led to a sharp fall in Ukrainian sentiment towards Russia back down to Poroshenko-era levels.
The NAF, to be clear, doesn’t stand any chance in a full scale Ukrainian assault. Even in 2014, when the Ukrainian Army was much less organized, Russian artillery and EW intervention proved critical. The Ukrainian military has since had more than half a decade of getting 5% of Ukraine’s GDP lavished on it. While Ukraine’s GDP is unimpressive, this is still a high numerator and Russian involvement would have to be more overt than in 2014 if the Donbass is to be saved.
Considering that 100,000’s of Donbass residents are now also Russian citizens, not doing so would discredit Putin domestically.
This, then, might be the game plan. By provoking a Russian intervention, it could finally provide the US with the arguments to finally pressure Germany into shutting down Nord Stream 2, just a few months before its projected completion. (Contra popular conceptions, Germany is more invested into NS2 than is Russia, and stands to lose relatively more from a last minute torpedoing of the project). NS2 threatens to deprive Ukraine of $2-3 billion dollars in annual transit fees. These are not insignificant sums for a country with a GDP of $150 billion and are well worth the lives of a few hundred Ukrainian soldiers, who – as Strana‘s sources report – plan to stop the offensive and probably retreat should Russian troops go in.
There is also another possible incentive that I have been made aware of thanks to Christelle Néantt at the Donbass Insider. She notes that the same publication has also reported that Christo Grozev, an employee with Bellingcat, an investigative media outlet that is widely reputed to be a sieve for British intelligence, reported to Alesya Batsman – the wife of Dmitry Gordon, a leading Ukrainian journalist – that he is filming an investigation on the Wagner Affair. This event, which nearly led to a breakdown in relations between Russia and Belarus in the middle of an attempted color revolution against Lukashenko, was a sting operation jointly organized by the Ukrainian SBU and American intelligence to lure Russian Wagner mercenaries to Ukraine. During the planned flight from Minsk to Istanbul, from where they were to go on to Venezuela, a passenger played by an SBU agent would pretend to fall ill, forcing the plane to land in Kiev. The Wagnerites would then be arrested. But somebody in the Ukrainian Presidential Administration – many sources speculate that it was Andrey Ermak, the head of the Presidential Administration – leaked the plans to the Belarusian KGB, possibly to avert an international incident with Belarus. But it then trickled over quickly to Russian intelligence and the Wagnerites were freed soon afterwards.
The film was originally scheduled for publication on March 15, but has since been postponed. Pyotr Poroshenko, who has been rising again in the polls, has been energetically pumping this story. One may then speculate that the US and Britain are blackmailing Zelensky into war by withholding the film. In this context, Zelensky’s increased bellicosity may thus not be so much intentional as an attempt to fob them off while stopping short of launching a war that he is sure to lose (the Bayraktars will not be much for a match for Su-35’s).
There’s another piece of the puzzle that slid into place today. Biden told Putin that “he will pay a price” for his “meddling” in the US elections on coming to power in January. Soon after, no other than RT chief editor Margarita Simonyan was in the LDNR, demanding that Russia take it home in a conference dedicated to the “Doctrine of the Russian Donbass.” I would say that this is unlikely to have been a coincidence.
Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.
If you are new to my work, start here.
Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.
In the age of technofeudalism, the sick on airplanes should be shot out of pods with parachutes or gliders.
Lots of moving parts here Anatoly. Your equation doesn’t quite look like a nice algebraic one of balance and symmetry though? I still don’t understand how Germany can be dissuaded from using NS2 after coming so close to completion?
Nothing to negotiate here, and nobody to negotiate with. Putin gets both.
Any coincidence traced far enough back becomes inevitable.
Biden’s Washington needs a quick victory and stopping NS2 is feasible. A few other positives from a flare-up in Donbas:
– break-up in relations between EU and Russia for a while
– strengthening of US economy against EU – always happens when there is turbulence around Europe
– military spending
– instability around Russia
– Russian athletes kept away so Western mulattos can win more medals.
There are a lot of negatives, but they would be experienced by Europeans. So it looks likely. But these things never go the way anyone anticipates. I will be surprised if NS2 delivers any gas in the next few years.
Look at Biden’s hands…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0139UytcR8
Win-win for Ukraine. Donbas (toxic for Ukraine) lost forever, gas revenue retained. Hopefully Russian intervention would just prevent the takeover of Donbas and push Ukraine forces to the current line rather than grabbing the oblasts in their entirety, it’s a good one that roughly corresponds to the ethnic division and the 1918 Brest-Litovsk border.
Also, hopefully this wouldn’t cause problems with travel between the USA and Russia. I am overdue for a Moscow visit and my multiple entry visa is still valid.
It also signed a deal to build them in Ukraine, and is in the process of missile mass production. Odd to start a war when rearmament is still in process.
Also, the fact that the Saker is pushing the idea of war suggests it will not happen; he has a rather poor track record.
Biden also said that Putin has no soul, and that he is a killer. Putin has recalled the Russian ambassador to the US. The deterioration in US-Russian relations is accelerating. We are getting close to the point where someone has to blink or shoot.
The only way to get anything positive from this whole situation is for Russia to grab the whole left bank Ukraine, all the majority Russian speaking regions, add Odessa and the region between Odessa and Transnistria and build a supposedly independent Novorossia with all that territory. Basically doing what was supposed to have been done in 2014. Putin will be hailed as the “gatherer of Rus lands” and retire to the Gelendzhik Palace a hero. Sanctions would follow, but they will anyway.
Also, Anatoly’s friend, Alexander Mercouris, has covered it much more fully. He thinks it is unlikely, unless Zelensky is completely barmy. I do hope he isn’t.
There is recent discussion elsewhere here on UNZ about our new “woke” military. It is unlikely that the new “woke” military would prevail on a battlefield against a peer competitor like Russia. As I said there and will say here, I am certain that the DoD brass is well-aware of the limitations of the “woke” military on a gut instinctual level. However, I do not believe either the Administration or Congress is cognesent of this reality. Thus, it is possible they really could blunder us into a war that we cannot win, resulting in a humiliating defeat of the “woke” military.
As you all know, Biden is experiencing age-related cognitive decline at an alarming rate. It is unlikely he himself is the driver of our attention to this Donbass issue. I do not expect him to last beyond, say, this Auguest. I think Harris will be in way over her head as president. She could instigate such a war as an attempt to show that she is not weak. After all, she WAS the AG of California where she put away lots of black men under dubious circumstances just to show she was tough on crime. Given all of this, I would not be surprised if she, and her backers, blunder us into such a war.
The problem for Ukraine in doing that is that Russia has shown in 2008 and 2014 that when it intervenes it does not just intervene to restore the status quo but goes beyond that to impose a penalty. If Russia is forced to intervene overtly then the remainder of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts are at risk.
If Putin is willing to play hardball in such a situation, he will deny the Ukraine the gas revenues regardless – it is only natural to decline paying transit fees to a country that you’ve just been at war with, and that you stopped from massacring your citizens.
Russia can still sell gas to China and some europeans can buy whatever they can from Russia via Turkey, the rest can either grow some balls and finish NordsSream, or continue sniffing american farts and calling it “freedom”.
I was thinking that – if they will suffer the sanctions and everything else that will come anyway, might as well take whatever they want from the Ukraine and not just the DNR and the LNR.
Biden insults the Russian president in the same way that Maduro insults the US president. It seems that lower level presidents want to insult the upper level ones.
It must be the svidomite Russian within you making such a bold and dangerous recommendations?
Sure, a lot of folks that live within the left bank speak Russian (and Ukrainian too), but the vast majority don’t want their lands incorporated into Russia. During the first provocations of 2014, a lot of pro-Russian propaganda and feelers were circulated in these areas and the vast majority of natives weren’t buying any of it and were content to stay within a Ukrainian border – I seriously doubt that public opinion is more inclined to any such ideas today. Your ideas here are way out of line and are actually quite dangerous. I’m really surprised that a careful thinker like you would stoop to making such provocative statements. 🙁
More outright land grabbing? Where will it end?
Why exactly should Russia refrain from conquering the Donbass Oblasts in their entirety, though?
For that matter, this might be an ideal solution from a Russian perspective:
-A liberation of all of the Donbass from Ukrainian rule
-An outright Russian annexation of all of the Donbass
-The creation of a permanently demilitarized zone in the eastern parts of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhya Oblasts, all of which will nominally remain under Ukrainian rule but will have a status similar to the German Rhineland between 1919 and 1936, except permanently as opposed to merely temporarily.
What are your thoughts on my own ideal Russian ambition plan in post #20 here?
NS2 cancelation and possibly (likely?) more serious sanctions on top of that + nobody else will join it in recognizing Donbass or Crimea anyway.
So while it would be a good deal for Ukraine, it would not be one for Russia. And that’s dangerous, because probably Putin realizes that.
That said, my own assessment is that the risk of war is still well less than 50%, recent developments regardless.
If NS2 is killed, Russia should just cut the gas to Ukraine. Anyone wanting gas in Europe can instead buy it through the Turks.
NATOs rationale on the european continent is as always to keep the Russians out and the Germans down. It will be interesting to see ìf the Germans yield just before the finish line..
Well, Ukraine does have a nice gas distribution system. Would be a shame if something happened to it. And if that still cancels Nord Stream 2, buy shares in Novatek.
The above reasoning is similar to what I have previously commented on (in fact literally my last two comments in an earlier post).
The main difference is my thinking and the above is:
Neither is Kamala Harris. Her selection was via a Dem establishment committee (powerful insiders like ex-Senator Chris Dodd had a lot of influence)
So key figures behind the Russia policy is the usual neolib/neocon canal at the State Dept/CIA along with WH staff to tell Biden what to say while they do. Nuland is undoubtedly a prominent member.
Similarly Zelensky in Ukraine is not in charge of anything. He is dictated to by the US Embassy in Kiev from DC. Recall when he came to power, in part on a platform to seek peace, various red lines were openly dictated by neocons. https://www.rt.com/news/460210-ukraine-ngos-zelensky-red-lines/ With Trump in charge, Z had some cover. The moment Biden came in, Z was forced to disavow him ( backtracking from his earlier position, Z said they Trump had tried to intimidate him with pushing for an investigation into Biden’s corruption, and expressed indignation saying “Ukraine is a sovereign nation!” which is a joke of course. In the pantheon of pathetic, groveling vassals of the US, Ukraine must rank among the very top, a position it no doubt is proud of.)
The hold the US has over Z is possibly not just promises of power but the real possibility that if he doesn’t obey he could not just be overthrown but imprisoned or worse using charges like the one Karlin speculates. It would be easy to drum up more.
Long story short it is only necessary to ask: what does Nuland and the neocon/lib cabal want to do.
And it is this: they want to throttle Russia more. Nordstream 2 is just one area of focus. IMO, stopping NS2 has become more than a means to make Germany more dependent/a customer of US energy and for Russia (and Germany) to subsidize Ukraine via the existing pipelines. NS2 has become a test of imperial resolve. Failure to stop NS2 after the Empire has decreed it should be stopped, would be a slap in its face which cannot be tolerated. It is the nature of the psychopathy of Empire.
More broadly, the US wants to destroy any chance of any rapprochement or at the least understanding between Russia and Europe, principally Germany. Nuland torpedoed the agreement signed between Yanukovych and the opposition and backed by Germany/France/Poland. The MH17 incident came just as Germany was wavering on sanctions against Russia with this incident forcing Germany to push ahead.
So Germany, a reluctant vassal, needs to brought to heel. Donbass is the perfect soft belly to do so. As noted an attack on Donbass has to be countered by overt Russian help. A bonus for Nuland would be more Slavic lives lost on all sides cementing further hatred between the countries. But the price of course is that Germany/EU would be forced to adopt harsher sanctions against “Russian aggression” including of course NS2.
All this is fairly clear. What’s not is what Russia’s strategy knowing this is. While one option would be for Russia faced with the inevitablity of sanctions is to not just protect the current Kiev-free Donbass but expand further to secure more defensive territory. But this too is fraught with risk given that the populace might not support this either especially given almost certain Russian deaths.
At this stage it would appear that Nuland and co have most of the cards. Whether Putin has a trump card (no pun intended) remains to be seen.
It might be more prudent for Russia to outright annex the Donbass in its entirety and to turn the remaining part of Ukraine east of the Dnieper into a permanently demilitarized zone. As for Odessa, its pro-Russian population can go and move to Russia. Ditto for all of the other pro-Russians in Ukraine outside of the Donbass.
Nothing to see here. Since 2014, the LDNR periodically issues warnings of a large Ukrainian attack. Forward positions are constantly being reoccupied. Heavy constantly moved up. Nothing happens. The LDNR sit secure behind their civilian shield.
Russia can complete NS2 without the US. Germany can insure it somehow. The US is not going to estrange Germany while it is still sorting out post Trump China. In the UK at least, the Right are winding themselves up against China not Russia. An enhanced military role in the Indo-Pacific (those aircraft carriers must be seen to do something) and more nukes.
Ukraine’s boundaries need to be honored and not digressed at the whim of any madmen, like any other country in the world. Any boundary changes should only be allowed to occur after a full and monitored plebiscite has been allowed to take place (not the phoney BS that occured in the Crimea). BTW, I’m rather sure that if a real plebiscite had been held in the Crimea, it still would have opted to be a part of Russia, and would have helped to alleviate Russia being cast as the pariah in the global community. Donbas, I don’t really know, but today as so many people have left it, we’ll never really know.
If the military continues digging itself deeper with wokeness there will be eventual rot. That would mean opening up for opportunistic careerists and true believers to wreck havoc. But as of right now it’s very surface level, has any real damage been inflicted yet?
Your’s is also a plausible scenario.
Good points.
That said, I’m not totally sure that Ukraine is that dependent on the US State Department’s whim. As AP points out, there are real Ukrainian “national interest” reasons to go ahead with attacking Donbass, anyway.
It will be a gamble, but one that can be hedged by retreating if it becomes clear Russia is moving in troops (as Strana’s sources claim).
If NS2 is torpedoed, Russian LNG will, I believe, still be cheaper than American. (The Atlantic is wider than the Baltic Sea and the great bulk of the costs are incurred per mile of ocean travel, not pipeline). Unless the sanctions are so extreme that Europe stops buying Russian natural gas period, but I don’t see that happening short of the most extreme scenarios.
Not as long as we stay out of war.
I just think that the situation being as bad as it is and going to get worse anyways, it might be worth it for Russia to at least try grabbing as much as they can. I mean it is a bad situation whatever Putin choses doing, so he would better go all in and aim for the maximum. You know pretty well that it is not the type of situation that I would wish to Russia and Ukraine getting into, but my preferences are irrelevant anyways. BTW, the Minsk agreements have been signed around 7 years ago. Ukraine did not implement it, so that’s that…
Why did US let NS2 construction start in the first place? In fact, allowing the construction to be nearly completed? From what I can tell the financing and planning happened between 2015 to 2017 and construction started 2018. So NS2 is something that started while US-Russia relations were bad. Is it just that United States wants to embarrass Russia by stopping it as late as possible?
Agreed that there are domestic compunctions for Kiev attacking Donbass. But IMO if Z were left to his own devices free of US pressure, he wouldn’t attack. I think his was the case of an idealist stumbling (carried/backed by an oligarch certainly) into a position without realizing the rot not just domestically, but from the US. And now he’s become subsumed into the system being offered both rewards if he does what he’s told and severe punishment if he doesn’t.
(Putin once said this of Obama and the US bureaucracy which could apply in most places
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54638
Re NS2: at this point, NS2 has become more of a test of resolves than a purely economic project. I think for now the US would accept Germany importing Russian LNG via ship if it could stop NS2 because it would have made its point to Germany, Russia and any who think of disobeying: “when we say jump, all you’re allowed to question is “how high””.
An all out war in Donbass would though go beyond NS2. It would force Europe which is increasingly trapped in its own rhetoric, incompetence and impotence to further go along with US to curtail relations with Russia further. Not just Russian media but even Russian cultural events might be deemed threats approaching Ukrainian/Polish/Baltic levels of hysteria and repression.
You’re playing with fire here, going from a bad situation to one much worse. It’s like adding wood to a small fire, what good can come from it? Russia needs to start treating Ukraine as a neighboring but sovereign country. You may have an argument with a neighbor, but you don’t expect to rectify it by stealing your neighbor’s car. Right?
I’m not quite sure why Ukraine ever backed off from negotiations enshrined within the Minsk Agreement – probably a bad idea. On the other hand, I’ve never ever felt that Putin was really interested in negotiating a settlement in the area either. It must be politically expedient to keep things at a stalemate? Look, don’t you see a lot of pluses for everybody involved if something were finally negotiated?
No need to F-up the rest of Ukraine too.
I think that in 2014 Russia should have either occupied and severed from Ukraine the whole left bank and Odessa region or simply refrained from intervening anywhere except Crimea. If creating Novorossia was not an option then instead of the whole unpleasantness in the Donbass, Russia should perhaps have voted a law to grant automatic Russian citizenship to Ukrainians and allowed the pro-Russian Ukrainians to freely resettle in Russia. Crimea might have been left independant under Russian protection. But now the situation is way more toxic, so probably the whole thing might be way more destructive.
This would have made a lot of sense to me until I realized that Germany was relatively more invested in the project. (Russia, wisely, had made sure to hedge).
Maybe the State Department interns are now too woke and stupid to be able to do basic research outside /r/worldnews comments…
It’s always funny to see the discussions about how much of Ukraine Putin should take in what scenario. This assumes that Putin has some kind of national or strategic interests in mind, while in actuality he is a prime Sovok surrounded by corrupt elites and western agents. He stopped the DNR offensive in 2014 on the doorstep of Mariupol. He repeatedly called nationalism a security threat and didn’t even mention the Russian people in his new constitution (instead mentioning some “state-forming people that speaks Russian language”, what a joke). The only thing he cares about now is the Victory in the Great Patriotic War, that’s it. He’s not going to take anything from anyone. No honour, no problems.
Sure, both countries should have been mature and reasonable starting in 1992. But that didn’t happen.
They have backed off because US was not interested in a settlement. Ludwig has explained that perfectly in his comment; US needs Ukraine as a wedge driven between EU and Russia. Ukraine should have been a bridge between them, but a toxic mux of stupidity and nationalism prevented this from happening.
The only thing Russia gains from the Donbass standout is that as long as Ukrainians are busy in Donbass, they will not attempt something stupid in Crimea. But if Ukraine regains Donbass, then Crimea is next. Russia is caught really, it has no good choices. Putin is caught in Nuland’s trap .
The Kremlin’s strategy with Minsk II, which has long been evident, was to “shove back” Donbass but under its own terms (immunity for LDNR leaders, local militia forces, protections for the Russian language, some degree of federalization, etc). The Donbass would meanwhile play a pro-Russian role in Ukrainian politics by dint of its 4M Russophile electorate, making it much harder for projects such as NATO integration go ahead.
It’s not surprising that the Ukrainian elites refused this deal. They can’t exactly just follow AP’s suggestion and tell the Donbass (or even Crimea) to sod off and mind its own business. Nothing surprising about that either, after all even Yeltsin’s Russia insisted on keeping Chechnya within the Federation, despite the cost and its clearly toxic influence. Nation-states can be seen as organic in that they strive to survive and to not lose their territories/appendages, even diseased ones. In Ukraine, political nationalism is too strong and even suggesting such things leads to treason prosecutions. Hence the resultant state of limbo.
For their part, it’s not like just allowing Ukraine to get Donbass back without preconditions is something that is (or was) politically realistic for the kremlins either. There will be a war regardless, if one that the separatists will quickly lose. Ukrainians will portray it as a victory over the aggressor, and that is how most Russians will see it too, propaganda spin on Russian TV regardless. Russia will lose an important bargaining chip, the way forwards to NATO integration in Ukraine will be clear. Perhaps most consequentially, Russian nationalists will (on average) go from being ambivalent on Putin, to more or less uniformly hating him. Most successful color revolutions in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine’s for that matter, have revolved around nationalists who were ready to fight and die. That is a dangerous situation for the kremlins to find themselves in. So, that wasn’t happening either, nationalist hysterics during 2015-18 over the imminent “Putinsliv” regardless.
Happened under useless Obama’s watch.
So why did he take Crimea then?
There is no way that Ukraine will openly invade Crimea, as that would clearly be an act of war against Russia, and contrary to some ridiculous ideas by people such as Saker Ukrainians are not kamikazes.
Certainly not to reunify Russian people. As if the people of Novorossiya (who actually fought and died for their freedom from Ukraine) are somehow less Russian than Crimeans. I think it was in his mind an easy grab and a punishment for Ukraine for ousting Yanukovich. Some strategic value from a naval base. But a lot has changed since then. You’re right that his goal is to shove Donbass back into Ukraine on good terms, for various reasons like easing of European sanctions. Won’t happen peacefully, but that’s the goal. Taking more land will bring him even further from that goal.
Thanks for such an insightful answer. I find the very last concluding sentence a little difficult to fully understand. Generally I would let this go, but I want to make sure that I understand you 100%. What exactly “wasn’t happening either”? Bolshoye Spasibo!
I think our fine Moselman auxiliary’s point here was that, if Russia was going to step “into the shit,” this would be the only thing making it worthwhile, which is true. Otherwise, all the suffering that Russia is going to be forced to deal with anyway would be a very miserable tradeoff.
Whether it’s an objective good or not (I think it would be, long-term, for Russia and the peoples) is a different matter. As far as Geopolitics and Cost-Benefit, it checks out.
Ukraine is a psychiatric disease/condition…..not a “sovereign country” you idiot Mr Hack.
Your friend Jabba the Hut/Peter Ostroushko practically admitted it.
Negotiated with the Kadyrov family to get them on his side
Got Azerbaijan and Armenia to sign an agreement within hours of Azerbaijan shooting down our Mi-24
Managed to (well, with Medvedev) annihilate, forceout and negotiate with Gruzia their surrender within 5 days……..gas supplies for Gruzia before during and after the conflict were completely fine
Meet with Yuschenko with a 1 or 2 months of his “winning” the joke Orange Revolution election…..this is within the atmosphere of Banderastan claiming Putin or the Russian state had tried to poison him and made him permanently disfigured.
About half-a million agreements on things with Turkey despite many disagreements and incidents
Negotiate twice with 2 different Minsk agreements ( both not followed by scumbag bankrupt ukrop state) for ceasefire and some territorial arrangements…..giving them hugely generous deal despite LNR/DNR being in very strong position at the time.
Negotiated with Trump on as yet unexplained ( in what benefit Russia actually got out of it) oil deal. Earlier in the year with the coronavirus pandemic starting KSA and Russia collapsed the oil price – killing off many shale-oil and non-shale oil American companies operations. It was going to cause a disaster for American economy with the particular issue of it being an election year…..but an agreement was reached that saved “millions of American jobs”…..Trump actually made this part ( without specifically mentioning it was Putin who did it) one of the main points of his election campaign – that he saved millions of jobs in oil industry and Biden was going to close millions.
My thinking too. The sanctions will be the same, so better to be hanged as a wolf than a sheep.
I’m still LMAO at a tramp as yourself lying and embarrassing yourself to Beckow on the previous thread….and also claiming to be anti-leftist ……. then immediately mass advocating the flooding of the country with Mexican immigrants and the benefits of mass mixing between Mexicans with Americans in US!
It’s just the same disturbed “mind” that gives the Polish (sockpuppet accounts claiming this LOL what a freak), Austrian, East Ukrainian, Chechen, Galician or whatever idiot personality you are trying to be to make whatever timewasting false argument to occupy your non-life.
Obama shutdown south stream pipeline you dumb prick. Gas pipelines are the same story every time over 50 years . Gas supply to west germany from USSR much more strongly opposed by US Republicans/Democrats then compared to their opposition to NS2 now. Same thing with the first NS. Same thing with Turk Stream – a NATO country of which Trump was useless at stopping. Neither US party successful at even starting to get a serious rival gaspipeline constructed. Under Trump , Russia share of EU gas export market has INCREASED you idiot.
Trump managed to give Ukrop “beautiful American coal” – which is a bit like UAE sending Lvov prostitutes….and charging them 4 times the usual rate. A complete counter-logical freakshow inversion of reality
Neither have actually visited “Ukraine” – which I suppose is nice in that it gives a POS like you the same characteristics as a US President- unlikely Biden will visit this prostitute state because of all the problems with his son
No – negligible investment,
All that either man, particularly Trump have done is make terrible relations with Russia……..and practically made relations of west with Ukraine even worse.
It’s no easier for a ukrop to visit on holiday or study in US then it is for a Russian after US eliminated visa-free travel for Russians, it is practically much worse now for Ukrainians as far more Russians in proportion are visiting US and more Russians studying in US then are ukrops.
Unless of course a sick f**k as yourself thinks Ukrainians being subjected to biological experiments by US military is a success- but fantasist scum like you who would “fight Russia”…..to the last Ukrainian are tragicomic.
It’s more about United States having an imperial mindset. They believe Germany needs to be ready to make economical sacrifices to further American geopolitical goals. This is even clearer when looking at how US tries to prevent other countries from trading with China.
The US always opposed it along with EE countries like Poland right from when the expansion was mooted in 2011. Various pressures were used including trying to retroactively apply new EU legislation. But ironically the Obama administration which didn’t want to antagonize Germany more than it already did by demanding sanctions vs Russia (which hurt Germany as much as Russia but didn’t impact the US much), didn’t push as hard on NS2 as when Trump came into power.
By the time Trump came in, thanks to Russiagate, the Dems became even more rabidly opposed to Russia than the neocons traditionally allied w the GOP, and there was an increasing bipartisan consensus on using more and more aggressive means to stop NS2.
For Trump, stopping NS2 was sold internally as a commercial win for US energy. (Recall for Trump, there had to be a clear short term economic motive for US action abroad.)
I think what surprised the US was how stubborn Germany would be to US diktats on this matter (since for Germany there are various economic and internal politics at play), and it took time to turn the screws. Permits were delayed, but yet the work went on which also surprised the US judging by the media which crowed that the project was dead when the Swiss pipe laying firm stopped under mafia tactic like threats to the owner, claiming Russia didn’t have the technology.
But despite retroactive legal measures cutting out Gazprom from filling the pipe fully; technology being cut off; financing being stopped, Russia pressed on along with Germany (so far). It seems from the Russian side also it became a contest of wills.
Long story short: I think the US expected the project to stop long ago when they approached Germany in the back rooms but it took increasingly shrill public actions to get to this point. And even now NS2 is the vampire that won’t die.
Attacking Donbass might be the action to drive a stake into it.
Anatoly, you do realize that Biden could simply forbid Germans from buying Russian gas? This is how anti-Iran embargo was enforced. No wars are necessary. And if Putin wanted to take Donbass, he would have done it already.
Asides from Turkish drones (which again, just because Armenia had its own head up its ass doesn’t mean other rational actors will be that retarded, as if the Taliban didn’t contend with drones for 20 years) what exactly does Ukraine have that is meant to tip the scales?
Did the US hand over F-16s to Ukraine? Did Germany loan out any Leopard 2 tanks? Maybe France donated a shitload of MILANs? So what exactly does Ukraine have THIS TIME that’s going to tip the scale? Don’t forget motherfuckers have to roll up TO Donbass to CAPTURE it.
Last I checked rubber boats and thin-skinned Humvees are not up to the challenge for that particular engagement.
We all saw how easy it was for radiator hosing in T-55, 62, 72, and 80s to get knocked out (for all the fags here that harp about science your motorized vehicle overheats to non-function without a radiator to cool it; yes science works like that I know it sucks). A single pussy ass mine is enough to do that. If YouTube didn’t go full GayMode I’d link the exact videos of it occurring time and time again in Syria and Donbass many years ago.
I’m not gonna pretend to know what plans-within-plans there are in this region. I had assumed that Putin was happy with Crimea (being probably the ONLY strategically valuable asset worth sacrificing blood for, which amazingly was a blood free capture). Who cares about some bumfuck shithole border region with Russian speakers. Did they find oil under Donbass or something? A diamond mine? Maybe a cultural heritage site? No…. so its worthless territory made even more worthless by Russian speakers inhabiting it. Got it.
“But but but Russians will be upset with Putin” LOL okay, have fun with Yeltsins brother in charge. I’m sure he’ll lead you to victory. Ass clowns.
If truly the LNDR is at threat then it must preemptively strike now to try to frustrate any plans. Survive till winter for resupply (which if Russia hasn’t gone full retard will more than happily do).
If I was Putin I’d let Ukraine mop up the whole area. After they’ve bleed themselves and basically massacred the region I’d order the Russian Armed Forces to turn the entire border of Ukraine into the worlds largest minefield buffer (INSIDE UKRAINE, proper Israel tactics, make a buffer zone in other peoples land). This will be accomplished via artillery systems (rocket and cannon launched mines, my personal favourite) as well as heavy lift planes and helicopters (dispenser pods). I’d name it the Putin Field. It will make the DMZ between South and North Korea blush in its epicness. I will then register it with UNESCO as the 8th wonder of the world aptly called “The Anti-Gay Line”. Jobs will be created and revenue generate in tourism alone based on this brilliant move.
Putin if you are reading this make the cheque out to CASH. And I don’t want to see any cheques from some Belarusian bank or some shit. Thanks bud.
If I was Putin I would implement a total economic embargo (no transit revenue), blockade Ukrainian ports (no export revenues), then subject the country to a Yugoslavia style bombing campaign, that would last months/years. I would kill Avakov, assassinate pro-Western oligarchs, destroy the Nazi militias, destroy US-funded “civil society” groups, bomb the NATO instructors and any installations might have set up in the Ukraine. In all likelihood the regime would then collapse on its own before any ground invasion.
I hate the idea of more WW1 style warfare involving unofficial Russian “tourists” in Donbass, but I fear that’s how it’s gonna be.
Makes sense. BTW, FWIW, I think that the Donbass would have voted to remain part of Ukraine in 2014–at least the Donbass as a whole. Maybe things might have been different in the southern part of the Donbass; not sure. The southern part of the Donbass is more Russophone than the northern part of the Donbass is, after all.
Russia’s best bet would have been to annex quickly and then win the trust of the locals. Then, even if the Donbass would have had to be given to UN rule for ten years so that a new, completely free and fair plebiscite could have eventually been held there, Russia’s odds of winning this plebiscite would have been pretty decent.
BTW, it’s worth noting that without Crimea Yanukovych would have still won the Ukrainian Presidency in 2010 by less than 0.5%, but without Crimea and the southern part of the Donbass, Yanukovych would have virtually certainly lost the Ukrainian Presidency that year. Just some food for thought.
Just what exactly is the incentive for the Ukrainian leadership to actually agree to this, though? Especially when the Donbass previously helped bring Viktor Yanukovych to power in Ukraine?
Even if only Crimea was taken by Russia, Ukrainians (aka hohols) would have still been extremely pissed off by brotherly Russia stabbing Ukraine in the back like that.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/uk/a/a6/UA_fobia.jpg
This doesn’t even seems like there’s anything rational about it. A war with China could be explained in future history books as a conflict between a rising new power and the incumbent superpower. But this is totally irrational. Not that you could expect much rationality from a country which reacted to the unfortunate death of a petty (and violent) criminal with mass religious rupture and giving a more grandiose funeral to the criminal than to any president ever.
2 points:
First, absent a willingness to go nuclear, the capability (or lack thereof) of the US military is immaterial in a conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The US does not have the strength of forces in Europe to successfully oppose Russia and it would take many, many months to deploy credible forces (How long did it take the US to deploy sufficient forces to defeat Iraq, which had at best a second-rate military?). Any Ukrainian/Russian conflict would be long over before the US could hope to affect the outcome militarily, independent of how much the “wokeness” has taken hold.
Second, neither Biden’s cognitive decline nor Harris’s inexperience and lack of ability are likely to play any role. I seriously doubt that Biden is calling any of the shots in this administration and I expect that Harris will not either. Both are simply figureheads who will rubber-stamp what the real decision-makers (a subset of those holding various positions in the gov’t) place in front of them. Of course, that does not mean that the decisions made by those actually running things will be any more intelligent than what Biden or Harris might do, but trying to predict US policies/actions based on Biden’s or Harris’ preferences is probably not going to be very fruitful.
Too much work but on the right track. My plan (patent-pending) solves problems with minimal causalities. Observe:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KRF29BI8oeo/YFL8cM9cFhI/AAAAAAAAHKk/gODlKQaZeiAYIDSThRTOoFVc1er4w_leACLcBGAsYHQ/s16000/asdadasd.jpg
There’s something of an onus on the Ukraine to start behaving as a sovereign country, as well. What it really needs is a properly authoritarian leader, its own Putin of sorts. Instead, in its zeal to identify as the anti-Russia, it’s developed this strange political culture of ruling via street demonstrations and periodic revolutions. This allows all sorts of competing interests, including the US, to use the chaos in their favor, not in the interests of the country. It’s hard for neighbors to deal with a country like that in a sensible fashion.
Nobody’s screwed up the Ukraine more than Ukrainians themselves (Incidentally, the same can, of course, be said of Russia). Taking responsibility instead of blaming Russia (the US) is the only way forward. After all, enemies just utilize your own weaknesses against you.
No phobia, just an upscale Galician wedding:
https://strana.ua/img/forall/u/10/88/59129519_2456740971024623_3529229108783349760_n.jpg
In 2015 – 2018 many Russian nationalists decried Putin’s handling of the Donbass situation. They saw him trying to complete the Minsk agreements as a betrayal of ethnic Russians in Ukraine. Their meme to describe it was “Путин слил Донбасс” (Putin flushed Donbass [down the drain]).
The reality was of course more cynical, Russian elites used LDNR to keep Ukraine off balance in exactly the same manner as the globalized West uses Ukraine to keep Russia of balance. Ukraine is a tool of the globalized West, LDNR is a tool inside a tool LDNR is a (tool)2 if I could allow myself some sarcastic mathematics.
Putin does not really care about Russian people in Ukraine or anywhere else, just like the West doesn’t really care about Ukrainian people in LDNR or anywhere else. It is all an extremely cynical geopolitical game. A game that must end one day.
It either ends by completely reforming Ukraine to prevent it from ever again causing any trouble to Russia (Putin and his cleptocratic buddies), or by completely reforming Russia to prevent it from ever again causing trouble to the globalized West (Atlanticist cabal).
When I write reform, I might as well write destroy. Destroying Russia is perhsps something easier said than done. But destroying Ukraine is perhaps easier done than said. In their present state both LDNR and Ukraine are insane expendable puppets for the puppet masters that pull their rotten strings. The puppet masters don’t care about the suffering that they inflict to the humans living on these territories. The puppet masters would argue that these unlucky people only have themselves to blame for what is happening there.
Things should have been done in a different way in 1992. As Chernomyrdin, the first Russian ambassador to Ukraine, has famously said: “Хотели как лучше, получилось как всегда ” (We wanted to make it better, but we only got the usual).
I do not expect him to last beyond, say, this Auguest.
He will stay as “figurehead” to at least 20 January 2023.
I must laugh at idea that Putin is Russian nationalist. Putin is Western liberal. His words not mine. Russian are fucked. You can’t build country on idea that you steal less then other guy. Ukrainians think that they need to build nation state against Russian enemy. What does Russians have? They don’t have own constitution or own country. There is no idea why should Russia exist? To funnel money to London.
People are making Putin as some super duper leader? Well, he got Russians behind. Quite capable people. It is similar to Merkel. Merkel is nothing without Germans.
I would say, that Azerbaijan have better leader then Russia. Or Germany.
Indeed, Ukraine needs its own Putin, who can at least force the bandits to be stationary. But there is no real sovereignty without nukes, and nobody is going to let khokhols have nukes. They’d be too tempted to use them to dig another Black Sea, like their ancestors. Ukraine could, however, achieve a greater degree of sovereignty and prosperity by making a credible commitment to neutrality, which has worked well for many smaller and medium-sized countries.
Good analysis. I too think that the key factor in the survival of the project is Germany’s reluctance to be treated as a full-blown vassal of the USA. The Germans may be growing back their balls after all.
It’s not that simple, it has certain political costs which they don’t want to pay. Basically the more openly they are doing this, the more out in the open the nature of American domination is coming. They don’t really prefer that, probably not because they want to keep this hidden (they probably never thought it all through), but simply because they want to do what they are used to and there’s bureaucratic inertia etc.
Trump was an outsider so he was more likely to behave that way, but for the bureaucracy it will take a lot of time to move in that direction, with ever increasing frequency of such blatant threats etc. like you write.
Propaganda and policy also get totally mixed up in their minds. Manufacturing a good propaganda event and then getting worked up on their own propaganda works really well for these people, because it’s not a very centralized system, it’s rather a kind of a hive mind where different people create different pieces of propaganda, but at the same time they are influenced by the propaganda created by others in the same circle.
Long story short, they are often more likely to use such indirect methods rather than working directly.
Though not directly related, an interesting look at the new priorities for the US military. https://twitter.com/JimHansonDC/status/1372323052525080578
Specifically, an addition mission for the military is to
It is interesting to see how the justification of Western militarism abroad has morphed over the past 500 years:
Civilizing -> Christianizing (Saving souls) -> Mercantilism/Colonialism [Ed: most honest] -> Fighting Fascism (eg Germany) -> Fighting Communism (eg USSR) -> Fighting Drugs (eg Panama) -> Fighting Terrorism (eg Afghanistan) -> Fighting WMD (eg Iraq) -> Advancing Democracy (eg Libya) -> Advancing Wokeness (pretty much the entire non-Western world)
Didn’t he say that about the whole 1990s situation in Russia? I didn’t know he said it in the context of Ukrainian-Russian relations.
You mean Germany doesn’t want to cover the cost of Washington’s hegemonic behavior? Otherwise, they had no problem participating in Navalny’s poisoning hoax, only to dump the guy back into Russia, presumably so that Putler could finish him off. All the while Germany insisted on separating this nonsense from the really important stuff like NS2.
We’re dealing with utterly degenerate people on both sides of the Atlantic, but they do care about their economic bottomline, much more so than they care about territorial integrity of the Ukraine. Large-scale warfare will likely disrupt Ukrainian transit anyway, making a timely completion of NS2 even bigger priority for Germany.
Looks like the Biden Hologram had to be deployed earlier than expected.
IIRC there are also gas fields under Norvegian/UK control, which were proposed as “alternative” sources by the “French bloc” (as opposed to the “Germany”).
Also, an euro-meme that natural gas is now “bad for the planet” because of “muh greenhouse”. So I reckon people should replace their central heating yet again after the “cleaner air through more gas” push of the 2000’s; should have stayed with diesel, suckers!
How is Germany’s effort to shut down all its nuclear reactors coming? They should be out be end of 2021. Greens be like “we need an enormous deal of renewable power, for solar we need 3 times as much, for wind we need 6 times as much”. Deal with it.
He said that as a general observation of the Perestroika effects in the FUSSR. It applies to all the post-Soviet space.
I have no idea why someone would think that Putin is a Russian nationalist, but he is not a Western liberal either.
I see you still believe in the story of Petrov and Boshirov. Good for you!
Z would be an imbecile to risk such a thing.
Plus, PUTLER can always call his friends in Iran and China and ask for a bit of a diversion. A “military exercise” suspiciously close to Taiwan and in the straits of Hormuz would do the job.
Sadly, the US leaders are literal retards. They’ll probably double, triple, quadruple, infinituple down. They’ll literally go apoplectic in such a scenario, actually attack out of butthurt, and then invoke the most ridiculous case of overstretching in history. Not a good look in the history books.
We might consider It the same process going through a Hegelian dialectics’ transformation.
What story you cretin? You believe in poisonings without poisoning victims? Anything actually placing these guys at the Skripals house? How does the homeless guy dying of Novichok supposedly given by them make any logical sense you dummy?
Navalny’s “poisoning” from Novichok is so comedically untrue that’s amusing.
As for those guys there are many reasons, some good , some bad as to why they went to Salisbury – and yes, visiting Salisbury Cathedral is something we would do among so-called assassinations ( UK retard propoganda on Lugovoi has him playing in a restaurant with his own 8 year old son, just at the time he is dropping some Polonium into Litvinenko’s chai.
You break coronavirus borderlaw just to let Navalny, his family and MI6 whore go to Berlin, supposedly attempted “murdered” by Russian state, must know of his parole conditions in Russia , propogating Russian state killing Chechen terrorists given refugee status in German……..do you then let every anti-Russian imbecile in and out of Germany to visit him? Do you then let him “recover” by giving him your facilities to record some BS 2 hour video, that only shows he is perfectly fine to go back to fulfill his criminal requirements
Lucky for Moscow, the top honcho of NATO is a Russian spy.
Or that is in fact the belief widely held since the 80s in certain rightwing circles in Norway. We are talking about Stoltenberg, or “Steklov”, as once was his KGB code name. Back in the 80s, the story goes that he was a KGB spy. (It was later revealed that he did in fact have some KGB connections. He used to dine every week with KGB agent Boris Kirillov. Just chatting though. Nothing treasonous.)
And naturally, it was looked on with further horror as Stoltenberg, through ruthless machiavellian machinations, later climbed the ranks to become not only the leader of the Labour Party – but even Prime Minister. It was his second time reigning as Prime Minister (2005-2013) that got USA worried. That’s when Norway buddied up with Russia.
For the first time ever, a NATO country started to hold regular military exercises with Russia, as the Norwegian and Russian navies joined forces in the High North in a series of cooperative drills. Joint economical development and friendship agreements across the borders were signed, maritime border treaties favoring Russia were clubbed through, Norwegian oil firms started exhanging tech with Gazprom et al. Inside NATO, Norway became a pro-russian heckler, frustrating US and Eastern European attempts to get her European allies to agree to host missile shield tech or to deepen formal cooperation with former USSR republics like Georgia.
It all came to a halt though, as Stoltenberg stepped down in 2013 after losing the election, and the Conservatives formed a new government, staunchly pro-US.
Stoltenberg? A year later, to the surprise of many, he became secretary general of NATO…
I saw a few Anatoly Shariy videos half a year ago (I should really watch some recent ones as I heard his party was banned), where he claimed, quite credibly to me, that Z has a cocaine addiction. He showed one conference at the opening of some pointless building or bridge, where he was nervous and rubbing his hands and nose all the time and interrupting the speakers. Then he went back stage for a few minutes and came back more composed and was capable of giving a speech. Other people also claim he has a drug problem. I wish more of those videos had English subtitles.
Crackheads can do very imbecilic things actually. Like forget laptops in a repair shop. For the strategists, it’s probably hell to game a conflict with a head of state who is a crackhead. “Not only did he start an all out invasion of Donbass, but there are planes dropping leaflets in Crimean airspace… Does he seriously want us to take Kharkov in some 3D chess move because his dad told him he would like to be in Russia, or did this morning’s batch have some fentanyl in it?”
Eh, everyone above a certain social standing used the good ole white stuff at least once, or uses it habitually. Mostly as a “performance enhancer.”
Addiction, however – is a problem. Such men aren’t supposed to get addicted, because addictions are a result of insecurities and other personal issues. It’s the ultimate litmus test to see the competence of a leader.
I wish this fantasy was true.
In the early 2000 there were rumors about Putin having sold information to the BND before leaving Dresden for Leningrad. Supposedly he was filmed transferring a microfilm containing matchbox to a BND agent. One of his female German colleagues, a translator, was in fact a BND mole. She befriended Putin and his wife and they stayed on amicable terms after Putin went to work for Sobchak and even when they moved to Moscow, Ludmila Putina sent to this German female friend of hers a letter describing their first Moscow apartment. This female BND agent got pregnant from some KGB officer working in Dresden, a son was born. The identity of the KGB officer is unknown.
In Russia most people interested by these questions believe that these treaties favour Norway. They are very bitter about it.
This clown is less healthy than Hitler in 1945. He may be even less healthy than Hitler on May 1, 1945…
Karlin posted an old article that showed massive improvement already in 2017:
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-studies/2017-07-07/best-army-ukraine-has-ever-had-changes-ukraines-armed-forces
By 2017, the number of usable troops increased from ~15,000 to 200,000, plus 100,000s of trained reserves; working equipment improved from almost zero to most of it working; large scale increase in training; modernisation of equipment that had been vintage Soviet-era in 2014.
Since 2017, there has been further modernisation; S-300s are all online IIRC, modern artillery systems, and new missile systems such as Vilkha have been created and procured.
It is silly to think there have been no substantial changes to Ukraine’s military since 2014-2015 other than the addition of some Turkish drones and small boats.
This of course doesn’t mean that Ukraine stands a chance of winning a full scale war and invasion by Russia. It will just make such a war rather expensive and deadly.
If you are going to bomb Ukraine into oblivion Ukraine could just oversee an “accident” (or blame it on a Russian bomb) at the massive Zaporozhya nuclear facility which is upwind of much of southern Russia. Russia need not have a monopoly on your level of murderous psychopathy.
Only an unregenerate reactionary would disbelieve that gomosexual drug-dealers can appreciate English Gothic architecture.
If a shooting war were to start in Ukraine, what prevents Putin from running over all of the Ukraine and occupying it? He can then tell NATO to move themselves away from his border.
At some point, enough is enough. Putin has been taking smacks in the face for years and I think looking at 4 years of Biden bullshit may be too much without fighting back. It’s not Ukraine, but the US and NATO that irks Putin, so any excuse to push back against US aggression just might be on the table.
Perhaps, a little too wholesome for your tastes? You can always do it more Russian style:
https://d.haberciniz.biz/gallery/2641_5.jpg
https://www.learnrussianineu.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/russian-wedding-en.jpg
Putin has just wished Biden “good health, saying that without irony or jocking about it”. He also said that Russia will “work with US on terms profitable to Russia ” and will not be stopped in its development by “sanctions and insults”.
Daniel Chieh would probably write this attitude down as the andropose linked testosterone deficiency. I prefer seeing that as serotonin induced mental clarity.
But one thing is clear, Putin will not restart war in Ukraine. But it doesn’t mean he will not reply if Zelensky decides to launch an attack on Donbass. We’ll see how it all plays out.
Objectively speaking, the final maritime demarcations are closer to the Russian initial position than to Norway’s. But as they say about compromises, if both sides are complaining, the deal can be considered roughly fair.
The treaty was much more important for Norway though, as it solved a long running formal border dispute with a much larger and much stronger military power. Some even think that the whole pro-Russian orientation of Stoltenberg was just clever theatrics meant to secure enough Russian goodwill to get Russia to agree to solve the dispute, thereby removing a potential future security issue.
As for Norway-Russian relations, one permanent issue in Norway is that the closer you get to the Russian border, the more Russophile people become, creating a sometimes stark difference between the Russophobic South-Norway (where the actual political power is centered) and the more Russophilic North-Norway. The population in the county bordering Russia (Finnmark – Norway’s largest) has always been viewed as hopelessly Russophile, to the point that Norwegian military doctrine during and beyond the Cold War was to just abandon the whole county if Russia invaded, judging that the populace couldn’t be trusted to put up any meaningful resistance.
People in Norway really believe that modern day Russia will invade them ?
That’s a very unusual BDSM fetish that I thought only Baltic states’ people were capable of.
Pre 2014, the West’s influence over Ukrainian affairs was much, much less than it is today. It was Putin’s ego that wanted to teach the Ukrainians a lesson for abandoning his CIS project (actually only acting upon his man Yanukovych’s very pronounced EU leanings) and decided to let his green men call upon Ukraine and ripoff a large chunk of its territory and continue fomenting war in Donbas up until today. Listless Ukrainian leadership grabbed at the only straw that was offered to them, and did everything that it could to avert total Russian domination by cozying up to the West. So far, this strategy has work well for Ukraine – see AP’s detailed comment #91 to see just how well. Putin would have to be totally nuts to try a full scale war on Ukraine today.
That Putin would start something never even occurred to me as I think that has no logical basis. My point of view was the other side starting up again and Putin responding. I doubt he’ll let the US and NATO puppet, that is Ukraine, succeed in anything.
The Ukraine leadership may think the US and NATO stands behind them and they have a few new drones and other junk supplied by the west, but that’s just to build up their confidence to allow them to get massacred.
If Putin has to once again intervene in Ukraine, he may just think it’s a good time for the inevitable showdown with the west using Ukraine territory to make a point.
A red-brown bear alliance would be even more based.
Considering retarded US foreign policy with Alzheimer Joe as a front man, this looks like a good summary.
Yep, Alzheimer Joe said that. I am not sure he even understood the text he was reading. Putin responded by wishing him good health (a not too subtle hint on his Alzheimer’s). Putin was unusually blunt, he stated that this is pure projection, listing several things: the US was founded on genocide of indigenous population followed by long period of slavery, the US is the only country that used nukes against humans.
The recall of an ambassador is often a move that precedes war. Looks like among the US elites Biden is not the only one demented.
Many Ukrainians felt that the Waffen SS was just a stepping stone to a future Ukrainian army. Not that I lean towards either political philosophy, but if I had to invite guests to attend a wedding, I’d prefer the SS boys to the red star commie loving Russian bears. 🙂
Militarily, this is feasible. In case of invasion of Russian troops Ukrainian military would disintegrate as fast as Georgian did in 2008. The US response would be the same as in 2008: lots of stink and no action.
In my view, the only thing that stops Putin is the cost: after you grab all this territory, you end up with the task of feeding the populace and economic revival of the area. Both would cost hundreds of billions. A great chunk (possibly a majority) of Russian population won’t swallow that. The prevailing view in Russia is that while Donbass (two whole regions) proved its right to join Russia, the other areas didn’t, and therefore they should be left rotting with the rest of Ukraine.
It is quite hilarious, cause progressive leaning apologising modern democratic Biden voting crowd would not object this anyhow, while MAGAtrumpists are exactly the ones who should be most offended by such remarks 🙂 Putin quite missed the mark here, not even to mention that roughly at the same time tzars were genociding the fertile areas around Sochi from local equivalent of redskins too.
Unfortunately, Jedi bears are an endangered species in Russia.
https://youtu.be/cNh0Hx5Ktpg
Imperor Putin has nearly hunted them all to extinction.
Guess you suddenly lost hearing when Putin said that it was not some modern day Biden, but exactly 19 th century Christian MAGA America that is evil genocider of redskins and slaver, lol 🙂
btw, remember that dear leader Trump always boasted about being tougher on RF than anybody else, that evil Obama being weak for giving Crimea away, so what’s exactly wrong about Biden continuing tru MAGA agenda here 😉
How cute.
The joo, miffed at being disspecked by the latter-day descendants of the
Kraljevic Marko, proposes to teach them a lesson by inciting them to crap in Germany´s soup bowl.
How often do you think this is going to work?
Even worse, they are wholly dependent on the German teat, so who´s gonna pay?
“Peace” is the last thing the joo wants.
Reply #100 was meant for Bashibuzuk’s comment #67. Sorry for the mix-up. But while I’m here, how are you doing reiner Tor? I always enjoy reading your comments.
They’ve gone plain crazy.
The Western part is not trying to diminish the regular soldiers of the Soviet army. They are trying to synthesize the two by making it about fighting for Ukraine, regardless of what army they are in. The reality is that, for ethnic Ukrainians, the Soviets were clearly worse than Nazis in Galicia (Distrikt Galizien within the General Governate) whereas Nazis were clearly worse than Soviets in the rest of Ukraine (Reichskommissariat Ukraine). So Ukrainians in each place could each love their country, while fighting and sacrificing themselves against opposing forces.
Most of this seems to make sense. Serious question, though, as to Poland serving as a buffer against German aggression:
what military forces would Germany use for this aggression they’re supposedly contemplating against Poland?
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-biggest-enemy-threadbare-army-bundeswehr/
The political class that comprises these decision makers are quite narcissistic, you know. One hopes they are not psychotic enough to resort to nukes.
Yes, probably, and more precisely: the Russian people, including those who live in the Ukraine, get both.
As I wrote previously, while commenting about Waffen SS Cossacks and ROA fighters, I understand their motivations. I also understand the motivation of the Red Army soldiers. I blame neither side in that terrible conflict.
For me it is the direct consequence of the October Revolution, which is itself the logical consequence of the lack of social and ethnic cohesion of the Tsarist Russia that was exploited by its external enemies. The lack of social cohesion and cultural coherence were also logical consequence of the westernisation of the Russian elites, which was rooted into Tsar Peter’s reforms and the Raskol etc until the Baptism of the Rus. A series of unintended consequences. We call that Karma – causality, and its often painful.
Putin and the Duma should accompany such a reclamation of territories from the Ukraine with a law providing for:
(1) the building of new houses for any people whose houses get destroyed in a conflict,
(2) the renovation, expansion, or construction of medical facilities with more advanced equipment and/or better staffing in the new RF territory;
(3) a law guaranteeing the right of schoolchildren in the formerly Ukrainian territory to study Ukrainian, in addition to their regular classes taught in Russian, if the parents so choose.
Take the role of a brother and provider, not a bully. Allowing and respecting the Ukrainian language for those attached to it will help, and sustained funding for local services and jobs always helps. Let the people remaining in the western part of the Ukraine see that their brethren just to the east are not being intimidated or culturally dominated, and are materally a bit better off.
I agree with you, Putin showed great wisdom and patience with his reply to Americans. Biden’s comments were nothing else than an intentional provocation.
I have understood that Norwegians and Russians have some kind of visa free regime in their border areas?
No wonder that Northerners have a positive view of Russians, for hundreds of years Pomors of the White Sea had very active trade relations with villages and settlements of Nordkalotten. Contacts were so regular that a pidgin language of Russian and Norwegian was born.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russenorsk
Who are Northerners? Norwegians living in the northern parts? Norway overall doesn’t have a positive view of Russia. Same with all Scandinavian countries. But that has little to do with history, the biggest reason is that they are very Americanized.
All world leaders must lift.
I meant those Norwegians who live in Northern Norway.
Looks like THE PUTIN CHALLENGE is on.
A live Putin-Bidengram discussion.
By tomorrow, before Putler retreats into his lair in the woods for the weekend.
Will Biden say YES?
What are the odds?
https://i.postimg.cc/FRBw1gtL/It-s-Queen-Amidala-herself.png
It’s possible, but those two guys certainly weren’t interested in any of this. The whole Russian explanation was a farce.
So what is the deal for Russian citizenship for people of Rus descent, without surrendering foreign citizenships? Is it limited to people living in Donbas or can anyone get it?
Russia never underwent lustration, and it shows every time Putin makes these remarks.
Biden brinkmanship plays well domestically. The GOP can’t bring itself to actually orient to a pro-Russia foreign policy, and Biden needs a distraction from the border surge crisis.
It looks more like the microphones were added in post production to make it appear Biden’s talking to a large media contingent, almost like a press conference. Intern forgot to keep mikes in the foreground.
I think it looks weird because the microphones are large and have long arms. In the replies there’s a number of pictures and videos from other angles:
https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1372031436736229379
Yes. People here fret a lot about the evils of globalism but the big problem is not globalism but American imperialism. The US is not pushing globalism, it is pushing plain old-fashioned imperialism. The US in fact is anti-globalist.
Let’s pretend like American NGOs and intelligence agencies(a distinction without a difference) haven’t been flooding western Europe with multicult crap for decades now. In addition, the U.S. helped take Gadhafi out and has made a general mess of the Middle East for no particularly good reason.
The true leaders of globalist destruction do not reside in Berlin or Brussels. Germany doesn’t have military bases all around the world, but the U.S. has 40 installations in Germany. Germany is a weak vassal state with little ability to project power abroad. The only reason the country has any significance whatsoever is the simple fact that its people are more productive than anyone else is. Obviously that fact bothers philosemites like yourself.
I wish Biden threatened Putin to have a fistfight over AR-14s.
There’s something truly delightful about bizarre Bidenisms.
Germans might be more productive than Britons or Italians (not to mention Spaniards or Hungarians), but they are probably not more productive than Scandinavians or the Swiss. However, besides being productive, they are also numerous, the biggest nation in Europe.
Norwegians living in the north have a mostly positive view of Russia. The reason for this view, which has become a permanent feature independent of cold wars, sanctions, media frenzied russiagates or other political concerns, is of course based on centuries of direct interaction.
But as the north is sparsely populated (approx 484.000 out of 5,3 millions) compared to the south, it has little influence on either national policies or the general national view. (Although the general view of Russia in Norway mostly reflects what is reported as talking points by the MSM, moderated by fringes of extremely pro-Russian or extremely anti-Russian opinions on the far left & far right). Sweden, and to a lesser extent Denmark, are much more mainstream russophobic than Norway. (Probably due to historical reasons, closer ties to the Baltics, Norway lacking Jews etc.)
After Stoltenberg left office, Norway-Russian relations plummeted to a historic low over a few years time, as the Conservative government stopped the unprecedented military cooperation championed by Stoltenberg, enacted sanctions after Crimea, and topped it all with ending a decades old policy of not allowing foreign military bases on Norwegian soil (US Marines are now permanently stationed in Norway).
Norwegian foreign policy these days is mostly just to repeat whatever the EU or the US says. (Exception for China: Norway signed a treaty promising to respect China’s territorial integrity, political system and core interests in order to end a decade of Chinese diplomatic hostility after that Chinese dissident guy got the Nobel’s Peace Price.)
Correct. There is a special kind of ID-card available to border residents, allowing them to freely cross the border for 15 days at the time. Russian residents of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk and I believe also the Nenets Okrug, can also get a special “Pomor-visa”, which is a multiple-entry visa valid for 1-5 years.
At least there wouldn’t be any possibility for Biden to have to shake the hand of a “killer”.
So true. It’s like saying you never know someone until you have a few rounds of drinks with them. Self control is a pre-requisite for character and leadership.
Currently, no one seeking Russian citizenship is required to surrender their foreign citizenship, regardless of whether they are of Rus descent or not, let alone their region of origin. This is the result of a new law that came into effect last summer.
This is about Syria. The President of the USA is Emhoff. He has been ordered to put pressure on Russia so ISIS can overthrow Assad and invade Lebanon. Emhoff ordered the drooling vegetable to call Putin a killer. George Steph prompted him to say it.
And importantly, is someone living in areas other than Donbas that are outside the RF eligible?
I thought I already answered this question, the answer is a resounding yes. The only thing (well, besides the onerous red tape) that was holding back a lot of potential new citizens was the requirement to surrender current citizenship. That requirement no longer exists for anyone, anywhere, applying for Russian citizenship.
Thank you! I will start looking into doing this (the local Russian consulate website in new USA hasn’t had updated information).