The Russian Cross Becomes A Hexagon

This , about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for on January 30, 2013 .31 Comments

One of the standard memes about Russia’s demographic trajectory was the “Russian Cross.” While at the literal level it described the shape of the country’s birth rate and death rate trajectories, a major reason why it entered the discourse was surely because it also evoked the foreboding of the grave. But this period now appears […]

Major Misconceptions About The Dima Yakovlev Law

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for on December 30, 2012 .23 Comments

1. For Russian orphans life is much more dangerous in Russia than in America. Let’s agree to disregard the hidden subtext which implies that any country ought to give over its orphans to foreign nationals should it be ranked safer for children. Let’s first examine if the claim that Russia is 39 times more dangerous […]

The Guardian On China And Russia

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for on December 29, 2012 .3 Comments

Keeping up with the Guardian’s stream of textual diarrhea in its Russia coverage is a quixotic task, and one that I do not really have the stamina for (although Alex Mercouris does this remarkably effectively). Still, when it comes to certain issues I’m particularly interested in, such as demography, or China-Russians relations as in this […]

Triumphs Of Kremlinology

This about Demographics, tagged , , , was written by for on September 30, 2012 .41 Comments

In 2008, Commissar of Transitionology Michael McFaul and his lab assistant Kathryn Stoner-Weiss wrote: “The myth of Putinism is that Russians are safer, more secure, and generally living better than in the 1990s—and that Putin himself deserves the credit… In terms of public safety, health, corruption, and the security of property rights, Russians are actually worse […]

Russia’s Demography Continues To Exceed Even *My* Most Optimistic Predictions

This about Demographics, tagged , was written by for on September 29, 2012 .14 Comments

According to the latest data, in Jan-Aug 2012 there were 1,253,000 births (2011 – 1,171,000); 1,274,200 deaths (2011 – 1,299,800). Therefore, the rate of natural decrease plummeted from 128,800 in 2011 to just 21,200 this year. Bearing in mind that natural growth was about zero for the September-December period last year, this means that even a […]

Mid-Year Demography Update

This about Demographics, tagged , , was written by for on August 21, 2012 .2 Comments

Currently writing an article on Pussy Riot, but in the meantime, data on the demographic situation as of mid-2011. Jan-Jul / 1000 people for entirery of 2011 thousands / 1000 people 2012 2011 increase 2012 2011 2012 relative to 2011 (%) Births 905,7 842,6 +63,1 12,7 11,9 106,7 12,6 Deaths 962,7 981,4 -18,7 13,5 13,9 […]

Will Russia Record Natural Population Growth This Year?

This about Demographics, tagged , was written by for on July 27, 2012 .4 Comments

Is the question asked by Mark Adomanis in his recent post. If you linearly extrapolate dynamics for the first half of this year to the second (BR +7.5%; DR -1.9%), then yes, it will – as per the graph I’ve stolen from him below. Adomanis says that making such a prediction back in 2005 would […]

Was Russia In A Demographic Apocalypse In The First Place?

This about Demographics, tagged , , was written by for on June 29, 2012 .75 Comments

And just as the Guardianistas and K.F. & Co. bury their heads ever deeper in the sand, real world statistics show confirm my thesis from the beginning of this year that Russia’s demographic crisis has for all intents and purposes come to an end. As of May there was a y-y increase of 17% (!) […]

Russia’s Demography Continues To Improve Rapidly In First 3 Months Of 2012

This about Demographics, tagged , , was written by for on May 5, 2012 .34 Comments

In my previous demography post, I argued that for all intents and purposes, Russia’s “demographic crisis” can be reasonably argued to have ended. Population growth is now consistently positive since 2009, and as of last year, the country’s natural decrease was a mere 131,000. This is a massive improvement over the 500,000-1,000,000 annual natural decrease […]

A Meeting With A Demographer

This about Demographics, tagged , was written by for , on April 19, 2012 .18 Comments

Today I had the pleasure of meeting up with Nick Eberstadt, an analyst at the AEI who specializes in Korea and Russian demography. He was dropping by SF and we had drinks at the excellent Samovar Tea Lounge. As readers will know, we do obviously have many disagreements on Russia demography, with Eberstadt representing the “pessimistic” […]

Russia’s Mortality From Vices On The Decline

This about Demographics, tagged , was written by for on March 7, 2012 .6 Comments

Sometimes a single picture is worth a thousand words. This is one. Though Russia remains a highly dangerous country by developed country standards, it has improved immeasurably in the past decade. Fewer Russians today die from alcohol poisonings, homicides, suicides, and even – despite a near doubling of car ownership rates – transport accidents that they did […]

Translation: Sergey Zhuravlev – The Reversal Of The “Russian Cross”

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for on February 23, 2012 .1 Comment

Sergey Zhuravlev is a Russian economist who runs a wonky but eminently readable and very useful, interesting blog and writes for Expert (author profile), which I may add is an excellent publication. You have met him previously on my blog as the inventor of a clever – if, in my opinion, flawed – argument that the 2011 […]