Top 5 Demography Myths

This about Demographics, tagged , , was written by for on June 20, 2010 .45 Comments

In this post, I intend to disprove or at least question five commonly encountered myths about world demography (as I already did for Russia). 1. The Third World is experiencing a fertility-driven population explosion. Whereas this was true a generation ago, today most countries outside sub-Saharan Africa are in the later throes of demographic transition […]

The Boris Bombshell. Two Years Later. Still a Dud.

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for on June 18, 2010 .12 Comments

During the past two years, Russian “dissident” liberals Boris Nemtsov and Vladimir Milov have produced a frankly maniacal quantity of so-called “Independent Expert Reports” (there are now seven of them) that purport to debunk the “persistent myths imposed by official [Kremlin] propaganda”. The authors say that their latest exegesis, melodramatically entitled “Putin. The Results. 10 […]

Crisis Demography in Eurasia

This about Demographics, tagged , , was written by for on May 19, 2010 .21 Comments

In a recent post, Mark Adomanis pointed out that the Russian economy has done significantly better than many other East European nations during the recent crisis and is now mounting a strong recovery. He also speculated on the effects of the crisis on the demography of badly-affected countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and the Baltics, […]

Paul Goble, Promethean Propagandist

This about Demographics, tagged , , , was written by for on March 25, 2010 .21 Comments

Mark Adomanis, who recently burst into the Russia-watching blogosphere like a fluffy pink grenade, has a series on “Who is the world’s worst Russia analyst”? (So far Stephen Blank and Leon Aron are in the running). Personally, I think that Ed Lucas would “win” hands down. However, since he’s already been exposed and discredited on this […]

Russia’s Demographic Resilience III

This about Demographics, tagged , was written by for on February 24, 2010 .29 Comments

It’s official. Russia’s population grew by 23,300 souls in 2009, for the first time since 1995. The rate of natural increase remained slightly negative for Russia as a whole, though the Siberian and Urals Federal Regions actually saw positive natural population growth for the first time in 19 years. However, this was more than compensated for by […]

10 Myths about Russia’s Demography

This , about Demographics, tagged , , , , , was written by for on December 7, 2009 .36 Comments

This post tries to debunk some popular, but misguided, views on demographic trends in today’s Russia. These consist of the perception that Russia is in a demographic “death spiral” that dooms it to national decline (Biden, Eberstadt, NIC, CIA, Stratfor, etc). Some extreme pessimists even predict that ethnic Russians – ravaged by AIDS, infertility and alcoholism […]

Russia’s “Abortion Apocalypse”: А был ли мальчик?

This about Demographics, tagged , , , was written by for on October 22, 2009 .2 Comments

Remember the hysterical stories back in winter 2009 about how Russia was going to see soaring abortions that would strip away all the “transient” improvements in its fertility rate over the last few years? Remember the glee this gave to Russophobes who saw it as a vindication of their criticisms / rantings against the Russian […]

Russia’s Demographic Resilience II

This about Demographics, tagged , , was written by for on September 26, 2009 .15 Comments

As little as a few months ago, alarmist commentators were forecasting Russia’s demographic doom. They predicted a wave of abortions that would strip down its post-2006 fertility gains, and a prolonged period of fertility postponement that would have longterm effects deep into its dark Putinist future. Meanwhile, there would be a renewed pandemic of vodka […]

Book Review: Mark Steyn – America Alone

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for , on July 17, 2009 .23 Comments

Steyn, Mark – America Alone: The End of the World as we Know It (2006) Category: Islam; Eurabia; humor; Rating: 3/5 Summary: The future belongs to Islam (M. Steyn) It crept up on the West silently. Even as post-historical white Europeans were busy puffing on their weed, hugging trees and chanting Kumbaya in a happy […]

Through the Looking Glass at Russia’s Demography

This about Demographics, tagged , was written by for on June 13, 2009 .10 Comments

This is a succinct summary of my views on Russian demography, written about 2 months ago. Through the Looking Glass at Russia’s Demography By Anatoly Karlin In 1992, for the first time since the Great Patriotic War, deaths exceeded births, forming the so-called “Russian Cross”. Since then the population fell from 149mn to 142mn souls. […]

Russia’s Demographic Resilience

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for on May 22, 2009 .18 Comments

In this post I look at the (surprisingly good) Russian demographic data for Jan-Mar 2009 and argue in more depth that the economic crisis is unlikely to have a very major negative impact on short-term fertility, or any but a very minor impact on long-term demographic trends. I make some falsifiable predictions, estimating a birth […]

Rite of Spring: Russia Fertility Trends

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for on April 26, 2009 .5 Comments

After its long pre-modern stint as Europe’s most populated nation, France started transitioning to lower birth rates from the Napoleonic era, about a century in advance of the rest of Europe. On the eve of the First World War, its stagnant population made a stark contrast to German youth and virility. Considering the disparity in […]