Grenade Fishing on the Potomac, Or: The Idiocy of George F. Will

This about Demographics, tagged , , was written by for on April 20, 2009 .7 Comments

Though hard to imagine, the Washington Post – or Pravda on the Potomac, as Eugene Ivanov quite rightly labels it – surpassed even its own sordid standards for Russia coverage, in the form of the latest op-ed from George F. Will in Potemkin Country. Time to go grenade fishing again, I guess. America’s “progressive” president […]

Myth of the Yellow Peril

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 3, 2009 .11 Comments

Chinese in Russia number in the hundreds of thousands, so the Far East is not in danger of demographic domination by the Chinese.

Myth of the Russian AIDS Apocalypse

This about Demographics, tagged , , , was written by for on March 1, 2009 .No Comments

Models that predict a Russian AIDS catastrophe rely on simple extrapolation from sub-Saharan Africa transmission patterns inapplicable to Russia and are as such fatally flawed.

Russia’s Fertility Future

This about Demographics, tagged , , , was written by for on December 1, 2008 .7 Comments

The excellent demographic journal Demoscope has an extensive discussion of fertility trends in Russia. Some of it backs my own views in Demography I – The Russian Cross Reversed? and consequently, the assumptions behind the future demographic projections in Demography III – Faces of the Future. The issue starts off with 2007: Fertility Year, which […]

Demography III – Faces of the Future

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , , was written by for on July 21, 2008 .17 Comments

I developed a model on Russia’s future demographic development in Matlab. First, I will describe (non-mathematically) the essentials of how it works; then I will present a range of different possible scenarios. Our data is sourced from Rosstat and the Human Mortality Database. Demography is a social science, and as such it is impossible to […]

Demography II – Out of the Death Spiral

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , , , was written by for on April 14, 2008 .32 Comments

As we covered in the previous instalment, Demographics I: The Russian Cross Reversed?, fertility rates are not abnormally low by European standards and are likely to rise further in the future. The same cannot be said of mortality rates – a ‘quiet crisis‘ that has been a ‘catastrophe of historic proportions’. Take life expectancy. As […]

Demography I – The Russian Cross Reversed?

This about Demographics, tagged , , , was written by for on April 8, 2008 .23 Comments

The demographic situation in Russia is usually painted in apocalyptic terms. The Russian Cross – the post-Soviet transition into a world of death without new life – will supposedly preclude it from attaining First World living standards and wreck any Great Power, let alone superpower, pretensions. Is Russia Too Sick to Matter and the Sick […]