Geopolitician

Non-moralistic BS analysis of world power trends and strategic balances.

Последние Записки Стрелкова

Полный Тупик Полный Тупик 2 Стрелков видит три возможных исходов: Безоговорочная капитуляция. Самый простой и соблазнительный для власти вариант. Вариант второй (подготовка к которому ведется прямо на наших глазах). Условно называется “Вставай, страна огромная!”… заключается в попытке выйти из общего кризиса власти через “маленькую победоносную войну”. Вариант 3: “Новая перестройка” Наиболее вероятный сценарий: “И когда она […]

Интервью на Samovar News про Трампа и Российско-Американские Отношения

Оригинал здесь – http://www.samovar-news.com/2017/02/23/tramp-ne-budet-druzhit-s-rossiej/ Почему не нужно бояться Трампа, но и восторгаться им тоже не стóит рассказал публицист, эксперт по российско-американским отношениям Анатолий Карлин. – В России победу Трампа встретили с каким-то небывалым энтузиазмом. Хотя казалось бы, что нам Трамп, что мы — Трампу? С чем это связано, может, в нем видят такого «американского Путина»? Есть […]

Ukraine Predictions

Reprinted from Facebook (2017/12/31): Geopolitically, 2015 will be crunch time for the Poroshenko regime. Short of massive Western support, a fiscal crisis is virtually certain. How will Poroshenko deal with it? A new assault against Novorossiya can’t be excluded; military spending is rising to 5% of GDP. That’s higher than any industrialized nation bar Israel. […]

On the Crimean Sanctions

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/15): There can only be two “justifications” for it: (1) If the Crimean referendum was rigged and illegitimate, as Kiev and the West have repeatedly argued, on what grounds are ordinary Crimeans getting punished for what is in fact Russian aggression? Sounds rather whimsical and arbitrary, if that is so. (2) The Crimean referendum […]

Why Asia Won’t Sanction Russia for MH17

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/15): This map is instructive: Relations with China and India are excellent. China is fast becoming a semi-ally. Korea relations are fine. Relations with Japan are frosty, but even they are less enthusiastic about serious sanctions than the West. The main reason for this is Japan’s not unfounded fear that Russia will get too […]

Was MH17 Terrorism?

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/15): Let’s say that the SBU recordings are genuine and the NAF was directly responsible for shooting down MH77 on the mistaken impression that it was a (valid) military target. Should this then be classed as terrorism? Would it invoke NATO’s Article 5, as some of the most heated rhetoric is suggesting? (See http://www.spitsnieuws.nl/…/nederland-en-vs-bereiden-invasi…) Well, […]

The Fall of Slavyansk

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/15): 1) The fall of Slavyansk is mainly a political problem, not a military one. In military terms, it is, if anything, a success, with Strelkov managing to successfully exfiltrate the great bulk of his forces from encirclement. 2) Donetsk has almost ten times the population of (pre-war) Slavyansk. Having aquired the great bulk […]

Islamic State Rises

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/15): Admit I was surprised to see ISIS take over a major Iraqi city as the Iraqi Army fled. I realize the corruption there is gargantuan, but surely at least some of the $18 billion that it spends yearly on its military must have gone somewhere useful? Anyhow, while Mosul and Tikrit might have […]

On Ukraine/Syria

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): It struck me a while ago that what Russia is doing so far as the Ukrainian borders in the east are concerned is essentially the same as what Turkey and Jordan are doing in relation to Syria’s borders. Both Turkey and Jordan keep the borders open, allowing jihadists from across the world and […]

The Donbass Referendum

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): Preliminary reports turnout is going to be high in Donetsk and Lugansk, with most people voting Yes to independence (though I’ve seen photos with a few No’s). I expected this (https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/465366857189310465) and it seems to have turned out correctly. Independence enjoyed 33% support in Donetsk and 25% support in Lugansk in opinion polls […]

Deconstructing the Result of the Four Party Talks

The media refers to the document that emerged out of today’s four party talks as an “agreement”. This is not strictly correct. The text of the document is here: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-diplomats-meet-in-geneva-in-bid-to-ease-crisis-live-coverage?view=desktop#block-5350089ce4b056a9012cda6f As its text makes clear what this document is in reality is not an an agreement to settle the Ukrainian crisis or even an outline […]

Russia’s Game Plan in Donbass

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): Quick piece I scribbled off for RIA: First off, an elementary observation: Donbass is not Crimea. Crimea features prominently in Russia’s historical memory, having undergone two epic sieges over two centuries. It was only given over to Ukraine as a pure formality, to mark 300 years since the Treaty of Pereyaslav that was […]