This is the startling hypothesis advanced by elections observer Alexander Kireev.
Here’s the thing. Elections in Chechnya have been completely falsified since 2003, reaching “totalitarian” levels of 99% turnout/99% pro-Kremlin vote by 2011-12 (versus the merely “authoritarian” 90/90 levels of the other Caucasus republics).
In line with the reduction of fraud levels in the 2018 elections, I suspect that the Central Electoral Commission told Kadyrov to tone things down a bit on the tinpot dictatorship aesthetic, maybe invite a few observers, preferably don’t harass said observers, etc.
Consequently, the turnout/pro-Kremlin figures in Chechnya went from something like this in 2011:
… to something a bit less incredible:
For the first time in at least a decade, Chechnya has an actual cluster of polling stations with presumably unfalsified results.
Putin gets around 65% [Russia = 77%, real ≈75%; traditionally oppositionist Moscow = 70%]; turnout at is just 50% [Russia = 68%, real ≈ 62%]; the communist Grudinin is getting 20% [Russia & Moscow both = 12%]; and Sobchak (!) gets around 4% [Russia = 1.6%; Moscow = 4%].
This picture is confirmed by Shpilkin’s regional graph of Chechnya, on which Putin seems to be around the 65% mark in the polling stations with plausible turnout numbers.
It does however make sense in the context of the results of the 2000 Presidential elections, the last ones to be fully free of significant fraud in Russia. Even though there were Russian soldiers voting from Chechnya, not only was it one of the few regions where Zyuganov (37%) beat Putin (30%), but the gap between them was the largest of any Russian region. Not exactly surprising, considering that this was the tail end of a decade of grueling war and chaos that had culminated in what many Chechens saw as a Russian occupation.
So bear this in mind whenever you hear someone waxing lyrical about the special relationship between Russia and Chechnya. Old grievances don’t heal quickly. The more plausible reality seems to be that while the Chechens are certainly not actively resisting, they are not all that enthusiastic about Russian rule, and no amount of federal transfers equivalent to 80% of the Chechen budget or Putin taking parental responsibility for Kadyrov are making a dent in that.
Incidentally, in the last Presidential elections in 2012, the bloggers Kireev and papa_lyosha calculated the real tallies in neighboring Dagestan using a couple of different methods. Their general conclusion was that real turnout was no higher than 40% [Russia = 65%], Putin got 60% [64%], Zyuganov got 30% [17%], the liberal Prokhorov most of the rest, with Zhirinovsky and the socialist candidate each getting 1-2%.
So the turnout is at 50% despite the fact that Chechens surely must be aware of the fact that results in Chechnya are being utterly and completely falsified? Don’t think I would even bother coming to the polls in their place. At least the people going out to vote in Moscow, even those who are part of the protest electorate, should have the idea that their votes are actually going to count.
Well in any democracy around the world, people vote more for self-entertainment purposes if they are being honest to themselves. Anyone who has learned to count, will be aware chance of your one vote making any difference even in close elections, is infinitesimal. And yet e.g. we see many are voting in non-swing states in America (again, everyone is aware on some level it is for self-entertainment purposes, as the actual individual voting paper could be thrown in the trash can without any difference being made – well, except that it would spoil the entertainment factor of your vote, if you knew that that happened).
Somebody ought to do something about Chechnya.
I think it more than ‘self-entertainment’, there’s also an element of group solidarity as well.
The more the results are falsified, the more totalitarian the regime is. The more totalitarian the regime, the more advisable it is to actually turn up at the voting booth. I think my parents told me that in the 1980s turnout really was very high. It didn’t advance your career not to go, to say the least. They kept tally of who voted and who didn’t.
I thought there was significant fraud already in 1996.
It was not a “significant fraud “, it was a completely falsified election. There were fraud in the elections of the 2000s, but compared to 1996, it is a model of democracy.
From what I read, I was under the impression that the falsification or the amount of vote stuffing etc. was in the same ballpark as later, but that it was the only election where the end result was affected: Putin probably would have won all of his elections anyway, except maybe in 2000 only in the second round. But Yeltsin clearly would have lost without fraud.
I didn’t remember correctly. Looking at the results, it appears that Yeltsin would’ve won anyway.
The only argument we can make is that the media and press were fully under his and his cronies’ control.
And I still think it’s a good… “counter-argument” against American and Western hypocrisy in regards to Russiagate? I mean Americans did openly and proudly meddle in the Russian elections of ’96 after all? That now “famous” Time cover and all that.
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Off-topic, but I just got… well, almost banned from the Russian Military Forum (yeah, the English-language one) for posting Karlin’s Russian technology article. As expected, it didn’t go too well among the fanboys there. Counter-arguments were great… “Karlin is a liberal who doesn’t even live in Russia, so he can’t possibly know anything about it… Look at his recent post: to him Putin is ‘Putler’… He doesn’t even have a PhD (!), so his ‘science’ is worthless…”
After that they of course got into the “nazi” stuff. So because Karlin believes in “HDB”, his views about Russian technology must be totally wrong as well. I guess at first someone got triggered because Karlin mentioned that the average Russian IQ is “only” 97. I tried to explain that 97 is actually high, but to no avail…
So in the end, I guess they simply couldn’t accept that differences in IQ/human capital are largely or even partially hereditary and due to genes, even though I tried to be as PC as possible. Shouldn’t that basically be obvious if you seriously think about it even for a minute? (Sounds familiar to people here? But that is how an average person will often react I’d imagine? Wrongthink!) I pointed that it’s about averages, it doesn’t mean that all Sub-Saharan Africans are dumb at all… Didn’t help. And now all the posts even mentioning the word “IQ” have seemingly been permanently deleted, which is extremely rare.
I guess this is what Western “HBD people” experience regularly? Have people gone totally insane there (here)? Absolutely never ever mention any of that stuff IRL? That one is probably obvious?
My “story” is that I only really started reading about this topic on Karlin’s blog and to say that it has really convinced me would almost be an understatement. The reason why I found the blog in the first place was his Russia-expertise, being a Western… “multipolarist” (Russia and China watcher) and I was fed up with all the propaganda around or even just before the events in Ukraine.
My political views were actually quite liberal only a few years ago, being a university student and all that. “Most Somalis and other ‘third-worlders’ are just like us, they’re normal people, hard workers. Blank slatism is obviously true, races don’t exist, because that’s what I’ve been told my whole life. Only people who think differently are old, uneducated racists. Same-sex marriage is kind of cool!”
So Anatoly’s point that blue checkmarks have much higher IQs on average is obviously very true and that is why I was one of them as well (kind of… I’ve been a Russophile for a while, and I’m in my 20s.) I’m certainly still not a “homophobe” and I guess I’m not even against same-sex marriage, don’t really care, but it has also become clear that the Russian complains about “gay propaganda” have become true to some extent, even in the West.
[Btw, a case in point, a perfect mix of homomania and Russophobia: I just googled “homophobia” and one of the first results is an image of Putin and an article called “Top 50 Homophobes of the Last 50 Years” or something, you can’t make that shit up. I’m actually not convinced that Putin is even a proper homophobe by modern Western standards, to say nothing about what an average Russian, Eastern European or really an average human being out of the global population of over 7 billion in 2018 thinks. Putin is also less of a homophobe than… atleast 90% of the global population during the last 50 years. Western media, for fucks sake!]
So why this “rant”? Because for the first time in my life, I’ve been labeled as a “nazi” (indirectly, but still) and that is almost all thanks to Anatoly Karlin lol. Couldn’t have imagined this only a few years ago. So despite me being only a poor student, I’m going to make a small donation, which I think is the first time I’m donating anything to anyone, certainly on the internet. Thanks for the blog!
Welcome to the Mecha-Hitler clique.
Incidentally, I became less of a “liberal” because I specifically was looking for evidence to support a blank slate position. The more I studied the evidence, the less sensible it was. Far from being guided by “hate”, I remain of the opinion that it is most helpful to treat various societal challenges with what we know from reality and then work from that angle.
However, most people aren’t really interested in truth or learning, and therefore can be best explained or interacted with via their tribal markers instead, including belief systems.
There is no way that anybody who has seriously read history of that region, that would conclude that Chechens will be buddy-buddy with Russia always and forever. Not a chance. That region will try to leave once Russia is incapable or unwilling to go postal in keeping it part of Russia. Until then – the relationship will continue forward in a way that is at least minimally beneficial to both sides.
Peace.
HBD is not popular in Russia. I’ve had plenty of heated kitchen debates on ‘races are unequal’.
Let’s say Russia still have strong internationalism-n-equality myths in the heads from rich Soviet past. Give it a time
Last time I used ‘Tabula Rasa’ in conversation I’ve got puzzled look and ‘what Path of Exile chestpiece have to do with what we talking about?’ I immediately facepalmed
Who is the Russian version of Rousseau?
Some black areas in America actually register 99% in an election. I didn’t believe it at first, but, by now, I do indeed believe it.
Just support letting NCFD go. It’s better for Russia. It will inspire other countries (China and India) to let go of racially/ethnically troublesome Muslims enclaves located at a frontier border.
I think we all support that (along with the Chechens), it’s merely a question of getting the timing right.
Chernyshevsky, probably. Nabokov has a hilarious biography of him in Dar’ (The Gift).
Thank you!
And another form of self-entertainment. You go to football match as well, even though your individual cheering is not going to score any goals for your team.
If you don’t mind to say or reveal personal details, which country is this? (I’m guessing German Democratic Republic?)
The Hungarian People’s Republic.
Just seems you need to be a little more careful with your wisdom.
It’s hardly normal people here – we are Karlin fans, i.e. the small and gifted group, fortunate enough to possess the technical specialization to appreciate, interpret and decode Karlin’s higher knowledge.
Is it little reason we are so resentfully rejected by the rest of the ‘Unz community’ (transl: cattle) ?
As a famous person once said. To share a precious Karlin blog post with your family/workmates/friends/girlfriend/boyfriend – to throw pearls in front of swine.
Even venerable Yan Shen discriminates against us (although in venerable Yan Shen’s case it is presumably for factors discernible only to even higher intelligences than our own – lack of blog posts about Chinese verbal/math split among them).
This is not even go into fact that website with such name as ‘Russian Military Forum’ can only possibly be run from Andrei Martyanov’s garage.
Thanks.
Very true.
Btw, it seems my posts were only fully deleted for 12 (?) hours, after that they were moved to the “off-topic” section (ie. basically hidden), including the link to Karlin’s technology article. And that thread was about Russian technology… Yeah, something’s not right. So my original wall-of-text was still overall accurate.
@ gogis
Yeah, I knew that, but most posters and mods are Westerners, AFAIK. Not that I expect “us” to be any more supportive of those ideas on average, but it was just the huge overreaction that surprised me, especially when the discussion was originally only about Russian technology.
@Dmitry
Accurate. But seriously though, Karlin’s comment section is of exceptionally high quality. The other extreme is Russia Insider’s comments, but atleast it’s full of Russophiles. Well, very, very uninformed ones, but still. It’s bad PR for Russia overall, but to be fair so are most other similar sites. Although RT.com is IMO actually quite decent all things considered (but not the comments, of course).
Haha, that’s an accurate description. A mixed back, but some good info there.
Yes, we are becoming one of the most highly-esteemed communities on the Anglo-net.
Karlin commentariat benefits from multi-national composition, and we have the fortune to even have ‘the rare’ (many once believed non-existent) example of a Ukrainian with an IQ above 100, which is to say AP – whose appearance has been likened by many to a ‘black swan’ or ‘square circle’.
Maybe we should shortly introduce an ‘restrictive immigration system’ so that only the best commentators are allowed to immigrate here from rest of the Unz community.
It occurs to me that if Mr. Karlin’s comments about the universities there is correct, we can handily help him get his much needed credentialism(with apologies to eXile);
Do you believe there is such a thing as “Qi”? Do most Chinese?
Not particularly, unless it refers to another process (like, a lot of traditional Chinese medicine works, but not with the traditional mechanism).
I can’t speak for other Chinese. The orbital mothership that substitutes for the Asiatic brain isn’t responding to my pings atm, probably because of all of the space junk being made by Tiangong crashing down.