How much bigger will the Chinese economy be relative to the US in the year of 2050?
We’ll both presumably be near retirement, but OK, it’s on.
#prediction: China will have twice or more the GDP (MER) of the US in 2050. https://t.co/Kp9jcD4I61 pic.twitter.com/cNv5cx0VUV
— Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes) November 16, 2020
What are we betting on? Bottle of Laphroaig 30-year-old? The amount of ethereum needed to buy the computing costs of simulating a single human em? Suggestions welcome.
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China's nominal GDP (*not* PPP) will constitute what percentage of America's in 2050? [IMF]
— Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes) November 16, 2020
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I say it will be 133% to 150% of total US Nominal GDP. So I effectively am on Thulean Friend’s side.
i) It can no longer depend on net exports to the same degree.
ii) It is an aging population, and will never have net immigration (it has net emigration at present).
iii) It is not at the frontier of basic research.
iv) The primary language of the country is not spoken in too many other places in the world, and is not something that other people want to learn.
v) White American men can marry Chinese women far more easily than the other way around, which also undercuts China’s human capital to a small degree.
Anatoly, will you be posting about the new China-led RCEP trade deal? I’m interested in your view of its geopolitical and military implications.
A map of the RCEP looks like the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, which was one of the US’s motivations for going to war with Japan, as it would have meant possible Japanese regional hegemony in East Asia and the Pacific.
The US has retreated from challenging China economically in the region by providing an alternative with the TPP, so it is increasingly left with military options. The military card is increasingly the only option left for the US, and it’s one that the US would have to use in the near future.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/01/RCEP.png
I’d like to ask an additional question, how likely is it that the Eurasian Economic Union will at some point in the future join RCEP ? Is this to Russia’s advantage both economically and geopolitically?
Anybody with an informed opinion feel free to answer this questions. I look forward to any reply.
Eurasian Economic Union
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8b/Eurasian_Economic_Union_%28orthographic_projection%29_-_Crimea_disputed_-_no_borders.svg/440px-Eurasian_Economic_Union_%28orthographic_projection%29_-_Crimea_disputed_-_no_borders.svg.png
The EaEU has been constructed as an EU clone from the ground up. Also, Russia’s population and wealth is in Europe. The Gravity Model matters despite the raving idiots of Brexit.
Remind me: what will Sweden’s projected demographic situation look like it 2050? What percentage of under-30s will Europeans be? And what will the average IQ of the youth entering into voter enrollments be? Will they even have a retirement system?
Better have him put it into an escrow account, in a Russian bank. You might as well enter into a bet with a Nigerian now, as a Swede in 2050.
None of these arguments on the consequences that would result in the rise of Asia are new in the writings of Western authors. Hitler argued that because Western populations had already been working for a century laboring away in factories doing dead tedious work that they were no longer interested in doing was going to result in a spiritual crisis for westerners(whites) They were already fatigued by governments that see this way of life as the best way of fulfilling the spiritual needs of their people.. Mussolini with his original fascism had argued in a similar way earlier.. Hitler went on to point out that this was the danger of the Orient, it had a few billion people who were ready and eager to become involve in that type of work that Westerners had become fatigued with. Already the consequences to the western world of massive and almost infinite production of goods by Asian nations had become clear to the writers and thinkers of a hundred plus years ago. The new development of capitalist bosses, literally ruining their own work force by shipping everything off to Asia is without the slightest doubt going to lead to utter catastrophe. That is why President Donald Trump, already spoke of this threat by China as long as thirty five years ago on every talk show he was interviewed on. Of course, this was the “cool” Trump, as the left saw him, not the hated and derided Trump that radical leftists like the democrat party politicians of today see him as. Now, the hateful anti white left, see the President as just another white guy to hate and a super rich one to boot.
Choose something that ages well in bottles, and put it away now – it will be exactly 30 years old in 2050.
As for the matter of the bet, I believe China won’t be able to escape considerable social unrest in the next 30 years. The pace of urbanization was fastest between 2000…10 (~36 to ~50% in a decade), and the effects will be seen in a generation.
Here is some relevant information in Russian.
https://russiancouncil.ru/asean-russia
I will read it and see what I can summarize. But the feeling is they are a natural match.
As an unconditional bet, this is silly. Your bet ignores an elephant in the room. I have two predictions.
In an unlikely scenario (5% probability) that the Ponzi scheme of the US dollar and US treasuries still stands, Chinese GDP would be about 2-3 times greater than the US GDP in absolute terms, and maybe 4-6 times greater by PPP.
In a more likely scenario (95% probability) that this Ponzi scheme crashes within the next 5-10 years, Chinese GDP will be about 10 times greater in both absolute numbers and by PPP. The reason for that is simple. The US spends a lot more than it has. So, it is 100% dependent on the US dollar remaining reserve currency, so that the US can print paper others accept as money. China has the economy producing real things (of poor quality), whereas most of the US GDP is “financial services” and other kinds of creative accounting, with real economy limited to trucking (distributing Chinese crap), bars, restaurants, hotels, and brothels, all of which will go way down when the Ponzi scheme tanks.
I don’t think that China has the age pyramid necessary for large scale social unrest, at least, in a largely homogeneous society, with a social credit system and heavy surveillance with facial recognition technology. Any young revolutionaries there will probably lose their ability to drive a car or to buy bus tickets – not a pleasing prospect.
In fact, I’m not sure there will be any civil war in the West, even though, I think people there should be more motivated, in theory. Of course, it is difficult to forecast, as we haven’t seen a severe economic collapse, recently.
That wasn’t Hitler’s main concern. Hitler’s main concern was very material and Malthusian: that all the good non-Western land had already been taken by the other Western powers. Therefore any attempt to obtain colonies inevitably meant clashing militarily with the other Western powers anyway, so it made sense to seek territory nearby within Europe itself.
https://www.econlib.org/archives/2005/03/hitlers_argumen.html
I think you mean Japan. Trump was talking about Japan 35 years ago.
I would say less than 150%. This doesn’t mean that life will be better in the U.S. than in China Au contraire.
On the one hand, American nominal GDP will continue to increase, but not GDP per capita. Total GDP will increase mainly through population growth driven by high rates of immigration. The average American will be poorer than today.
On the other hand, GDP will grow more slowly in China because the working-age population will be smaller and because certain raw materials will become too expensive. The Chinese government itself will pursue a policy of moderate economic growth.
Other points:
Chinese fertility, especially Han fertility, may already be less than one child per woman. The fertility rate will decline even further, reaching 0.6 children per woman.
The working-age population will be much smaller. The average age will be much higher, comparable to that of Japan today. Young people will congregate in the cities, and rural areas will be dominated by the elderly.
Immigration to China, both legal and illegal, will increase. Initially, it will come mainly from Southeast Asia. By the year 2050, it will come mostly from sub-Saharan Africa.
By 2050, immigrants to China, and their descendants, may number as much as 100 million. They will be younger on average than Han Chinese. Most of them will be concentrated in the corridor stretching from Hong Kong to Guangzhou.
Chinese, Japanese, Dirtynese, Lookitdese
If it eats rice, sees the world in wide screen and struggles with alphanumerics, it’s a threat to western civilization. The Donald knows these things.
Hmm let’s see here…
Key drivers of US economy are healthcare (17% GDP) and FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) at 20%+, and Government (local, state, Fed) at ~38%, though this double counts healthcare, excluding healthcare government is more like 30% GDP. The rest is basically Wal-Mart/Amazon.
By 2050 I expect this distribution to get turbocharged as population ages and old people grow from ~15% to 21% of 440 million or ~90 million old people.
In 2050, US economy will be 25% healthcare, 25% FIRE, 35% Government. Agriculture as share of GDP will decline from current 5% to 2% and manufacturing will decline from current 11% to 3% as automation and deflation decimates the sector.
Vast majority of US economy will revolve around pushing electronic digits for old people (major beneficiaries of FIRE, healthcare, and government). “Muh exports” and “muh science” will be rather insignificant as a share of GDP which is good because the cheaper the stuff is the more of it will get done.
Chinese will have 26% old people or 366 million. Multipolarity will mean that patents and copyrights will be difficult to enforce and technologies will be easy to steal and distribute (internet is not going anywhere). Therefore multiple blocks are expected to converge as far technological and economic development goes.
Therefore, just like US economy will consist entirely of monetizing old people, i expect Chinese to arrive to the same in the end.
China/US old people ratio in 2050 is 4. I don’t expect Chinese to outmonetize Americans so that’s the upper bound for GDP differential. Another proxy is Chinese healthcare spending which is 6.5% GDP, or 2.6 times less than US, which is to say, Chinese are 2.6 times less efficient in monetization of key GDP driver.
400% GDP monetization potential divided by 2.6 inefficiency factor is 153%. This is the current estimate and the lower bound for the size of Chinese economy over US. I expect Chinese to improve their efficiency of old people monetization as we move forward.
Final answer: 153% – ~200% will be the ratio of Chinese to US nominal economies.
Something like 8/3 working population * 3/4 gdp per worker = 2 is reasonable for even odds.
Mode is more like 2.5 working population * 1 gdp per worker = 2.5
These things tend to balance them selves out. 30 years is a lot of time for trends to change and the Chinese have a high base that they are starting from.
Edit: my bet more than 2x but that’s just throwing a number out I don’t know how all the factors being brought up will play out.
All very well and true, yet I did not state that it was Hitler’s main concern, what ever that meant. I really don’t believe that the Nahtzee’s, that is, most of the people in power had a “main concern”, other than participating in and belonging to a group of Power Players. Yes, I know this is a radical thought for some but I’ve studied this movement that gripped Hitler Germany for years and never found it to have had much influence with the general population including industrialists, artists, etc. except for how they could benefit from being a part of those power players .Hitler in fact, led by his popularity. It was not a particularaly “bruta”l system. What else is new? Even George Bush Jr. stated, ” The Constitution is just a god dammed piece of paper”..and I noticed that not many Americans became too excited about his belief.
Bold predictions! 🙂
I once bought the very low China fertility figures (e.g. http://www.unz.com/akarlin/china-demographics/), but since then I changed my mind, the TFR = 1.5-1.6 bandied about is more accurate. The absolute birth numbers don’t make sense assuming TFR = ~1.1. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/china-demographics/#comment-2439662
There has been a sharp decline but only precisely in the past 2 years, and as part of a global trend.
Not even South Korea has gone as low as 0.6, so I’m not sure what the basis for such a projection is. Even in South Korea, it’s probably ultimately just a tempo effect that will be right itself back to low 1.0s in a decade or two.
I doubt there’ll be large scale immigration from Africa (Chinese acquaintances say there are fewer of them now than there were half a decade ago thanks to CPC crackdowns). China still has a large transient workforce, and even come the 2030s-40s, it will still be able to draw upon the demographic reservoir of Central Asia (their TFRs are all around a very vigorous 3.0, and for some reason they haven’t even been affected by the sharp TFR decline in most of the rest of the world in the past few years, so they’ll have plenty of young people even during the 2040s).
Some of those claims are absurd. It’s very hard to get accurate tfr rates for China, the Chinese themselves say about 1.68 and rising (not falling). Some anti Chinese newspapers go lower but that’s dubious.
The Chinese aren’t that concerned but if the CCP wanted to they could use their social credit system to bump the numbers up, in fact they could create even more eugenic effects by bumping credit scores for higher earners if they have 2 or more babies.
What’s generally forgotten is that the Chinese have 200-300m rural workers who haven’t yet moved to the cities. Over the next two decades the CCP plans to urbanise these workers. This compensates for the supposed lack of immigration they need to compete with the west. If the Chinese do need immigration it don’t be charity or refugee driven. It would be temporary high skilled workers – happening already in fact in low numbers. That’s pretty common outside the West. Dubai is mostly foreigners. None are citizen/subjects. Sub Saharan immigration to China is unlikely.
Meanwhile the West will be absorbing more refugees and other fairly low skilled immigration as citizens.
What if comparing projected US and Chinese GDP for 2050 ends up being similar to comparing in 1910 projected GDPs of Austro-Hungarian and Russian Empires for 1940?
1) How can we be sure that US and China will stand the test of time in their current form?
2) Why should we believe that the GDP will keep rising?
Times are uncertain, things change fast these days….
The absolute birth numbers don’t make sense assuming TFR = ~1.1. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/china-demographics/#comment-2439662
There has been a sharp decline but only precisely in the past 2 years, and as part of a global trend.
For the last decade, and possibly for the last two decades, the National Bureau of Statistics has been adjusting the number of births upwards to account for undeclared births. These are births that took place in defiance of the one-child policy. Mengqiao Wang has commented on this adjustment in her analysis of Chinese population growth since the year 2000.
In reality, very few of those undeclared births ever happened. And they certainly aren’t happening now. When the one-child policy came to an end in 2016, there was a small rise in the fertility rate, followed by declines in 2017 and 2018.
If we eliminate the “fudge factor,” China’s fertility rate dropped below the replacement level in 1992 and has been at very low levels (1.4 or lower) since 2003.
If we look at culturally similar countries with more transparent record-keeping, the fertility rate is lower than 1.4 children per woman. Taiwan and Singapore are at 1.2. South Korea is at 1.1. Moreover, in all three countries, a significant proportion of the births are to immigrant women from cultures with higher fertility.
In addition, we have good evidence of very low fertility in the northeast provinces of China:
https://asiatimes.com/2018/07/northeast-china-has-the-worlds-lowest-fertility-rate/
Are the Chinese of the northeast so culturally different that their fertility is one-third that of other Han Chinese? Does that seem plausible?
Not even South Korea has gone as low as 0.6, so I’m not sure what the basis for such a projection is.
The Parsis, for one. There is no reason to believe that the fertility decline will stop at an arbitrary level.
(Chinese acquaintances say there are fewer of them now than there were half a decade ago thanks to CPC crackdown
Bodomo (2020) estimates the African population in China at half a million:
China still has a large transient workforce, and even come the 2030s-40s, it will still be able to draw upon the demographic reservoir of Central Asia
Most of China’s raw materials will come from sub-Saharan Africa. So it will be politically difficult to block African immigration while encouraging Central Asian immigration. In any case, the Chinese authorities are minimizing the seriousness of this problem, for three reasons:
They believe their own statistics, just as you do.
The younger generation is assimilating into neo-American culture, and a leading cultural export of the U.S. is antiracism. Young Chinese tend to have negative attitudes toward Muslims, but blacks are seen as nice and interesting people.
References
Bodomo, Adams (2020) Historical and contemporary perspectives on inequalities and well-being of Africans in China, Asian Ethnicity, 21:4, 526-541, DOI: 10.1080/14631369.2020.1761246
Wang, Mengqiao, For Whom the Bell Tolls: A Retrospective and Predictive Study of Fertility Rates in China (November 8, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3234861 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3234861
Swedes are pretty decent baby makers. They had a replacement level of fertility less than 30 years ago and currently they are only slightly below replacement level. Sweden’s demographic future is bright.
Ummmm no – Trump was complaining about Japan 35 years ago – not China. He used the exact same words – but he referred to Japan. That’s like calling a Frenchman and Englishman
This:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-16/kissinger-warns-biden-of-u-s-china-catastrophe-on-scale-of-wwi
Hey what do you expect…?? I just saw an interview with Biden when asked by RCEP and he inferred that the US is 25% of global trade. Someone forgot to tell him China became the leading trading nations back when he was the active Vice President.
I don’t think Trump has a very comprehensive view like you suggest. He has a businessman’s mindset focused on dealmaking with wealthy and powerful people, regardless of background. Hence his warmth towards Xi and Kim Jong Un. He’s mentioned his interest in establishing Trump hotels and resorts on the east coast of North Korea. He seems to have been mainly interested in better “deals” with China and not interested in slowing or countering something like the RCEP which would make the Asia-Pacific a stronger economic bloc.
Sweden had a few years of natural population decline around 2000. There has been natural population increase since but the population that has two parents born inside Sweden has continued to decrease every year for 20 years now. It should be noted that this doesn’t mean that all the remaining newborns are of Middle Eastern or African background, a good portion of the immigrants are from European and western countries. Sweden also continues to have net positive immigration from most western countries. It’s not all bad but calling the demographic future bright is pushing it.
While I agree with your overall sentiment, its a misnomer that China produces poor quality goods. The reality is that Chinese factories manufacture to the standard contracted for by their customers in the west. For instance, there are factories in China happily churning out $900 iPhones for Apple to the most rigorous of standards, while right next door there a factories nailing together $10 generic smartphones.
We fall in to these easy prejudices at our own peril.
It looks like Trump found a way of losing the Guadalcanal campaign without inventing time travel. This might be even more impressive than losing money running a casino.
I’ll split it down the middle and say that China will have 180% of the USA’s nominal GDP by 2050.
I guess I’m on TF’s side; but just barely. I’d say that 200% wouldn’t surprise me; but 180% would be more likely than 220%.
What makes you think China will be willing to repeat the immigration catastrophe on its soil after witnessing the breakdown of social cohesion in Western countries?
It seems highly improbable that the immigrant population of China will reach 100 million. I think the Chinese may increase educational places at their higher learning institutions for Third World students (a form of relationship building, as the USSR did with its “People’s Friendship” universities) but mass settlement will never happen in my opinion.
I don’t see the connection here, African nations will hardly be in a positions of strength here. Do you mean to say that the leaders will say “let us migrate our people to your lands permanently or we will restrict access to raw materials to you”?
Very strange and incorrect comment.
This seems like a problem which can easily be solved by another $100 million into President Umbongo’s bank account.
Absolutely disgusting!
Trying to show the truth to a Trumptard is like trying to break a window with a ping pong ball. Hopefully these dummies will realize that the media spectacle we see with China right now will end just as it did with Japan 25 years ago. China is nothing special.
According to most of the economic estimates currently, China’s GDP in MER will be between 1,4 – 1,5 times bigger than the US by 2050 and 2.1 times bigger in PPP by 2050.
If we use IMF’s formula for estimating countries economic size (60 % MER + 40 % PPP) that gives you a Chinese Economy about 1,7 times bigger than the US in 2050.
So my bet is somewhere between Karlin and Thulean Friend. The US economy will not be twice as big in MER, unlike what Karling says. But it will still be way bigger than the US.
Why Japan though, and not South Korea?
SK has higher GDP than Japan and it grows faster than the US.
So Japan is a pessimistic variant for an East Asian country, but SK (and Taiwan) grow way better than Japan, and even grow better than the US.
So if China is to follow Japan it is to stagnate early, but if it is to follow SK and Tawian it will not stagnate anytime soon.
Many people are blinded by the Japanese case but this isn’t the only east asian country, and others are performing better, economy wise. SK has higher GDP than Japan and yet grows way better than Japan and the US.
Good point.
GDP growth is a two-way street. The ChiComs have figured out after 60 years how to make a totalitarian state relatively prosperous, lifting its GDP from trivial to significantly better. The US, EU, and the Great Reset crowd are leading the Western World into a totalitarian state with what seems to be a stated goal of reducing per capita GDP. I would imagine they are envisioning that the goosing of Western populations with the masses from the Global South will keep a Western total GDP growing as the original individuals in the West “enjoy” a declining standard of living.
Ceteris paribus for China in the next thirty years, and with the West perhaps only beginning to learn how to run a profitable gulag by 2050, you’ll easily get your 2x.
Lol there aren’t 500,000 Africans in China. Not even close. Citing black social scientist numbers is like citing Ta Nahesi Coates. There are a little more than 600,000 total foreigners in China. The largest African contingent is Egyptian merchants which would make sense. It’s not like these people are showing up in boats or hiding in lories. They come in through airports thus visa overstays are easy to identify. African immigration will never be a thing in China because it unlike the West doesn’t run an over generous welfare system and Chinese factory bosses are raging exploitative ass holes. African labor is very unproductive and the Chinese will hire anyone but them first because it will earn them more.
As for Chinese attitudes, lol you only need to able to read Chinese comments on Weibo or Zhihu to know what the overwhelming majority of Chinese think. There has been an explosion in the foreign student population but they leave because 1) no one will hire them 2) government actually enforces terms of visa
Yi Fuxian is also a deliberate liar with very motivated reasoning. A lot of the Chinese dissident crowd are like that, 40 million coronavirus dead, three gorges dam collapses every year, 0.5tfr.
Honestly, the only people who can really have the expertise to debate here properly are people like Michael Pettis or some other trained economist, and those people might find the knowledge level in terms of fundamental economic theory of the kind of people who post here to be too unimpressive to be worth their time “debating”. Their opinions not mine.
Chinese appreciation of blacks is very superficial, they will support certain black sports stars and maybe listen to hip hop (based on my experience with Chinese students in England), and some may even take on their attire, but most do not want to live near them.
Anyway, it is Africans who should he worried about Chinese immigration, and not the other way around…
https://i.ibb.co/12Ktm6K/ee359c1f1cdef1d082081a3380b7180f-imagepng.png
South Korea GDP per capita: 32k
Japan GDP per capita: 39k
Protip: don’t weave a web of bullshit based on a misunderstanding.
Actually it is 30000 to 40000, Wikipedia is your friend.
Sounds like an argument to authority to me. Economics is nearly always driven by ideology. It’s the only right wing social science. Which isn’t the same as being a science.
In particular with China the fact that it is a successful part statist economy probably turns economists against it. It works in fact but not in theory, and social scientists are reluctant to abandon theory. Just as someone who believes in white supremacy is unmoved by Asians doing better than whites, a standard economist is always going to think that China is about to fall, while it continues to grow.
SK is higher than Japan in PPP GDP per capita, which means higher standard of living than Japan already. Taiwan is way higher in PPP GDP per capita too, actually higher than most western countries too.
I wanted to reply Peter Frost about his way mistaken estimate of African migrant population in China but you beat me to it. Thanks… Haha.
Just add a bit:-
1. The author of the paper he cited(Adams Bodomo) did not have any evidence for the huge number of Africans in China, just his own ‘estimates’.
2. The number of Africans in the largest ‘Chocolate city’, the one in Guangzhou, apparently has dwindled considerably from perhaps 100000 at its peak to at most 20000 at present.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-s-Little-Africa-shrinks-70-as-coronavirus-leaves-its-mark
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2144823/after-boom-fortunes-turn-chinas-little-africa-opportunity-awaits
3. I agree, we Chinese are not so Negrophilic, and although many Chinese youngsters may become influenced by Negrophilic Western media, they tend to be in the richer Southeastern coast provinces which had always been more influenced by the West. I expect cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou or Shenzhen to have more influx of foreigners, perhaps Africans even. The inland provinces, as had been in the past, would tend to economically lag behind provinces like Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, thus tend to be much less attractive for foreigners, more so the so called ‘rust belt’ provinces like Heilongjiang and Jilin.
Yeah, and this is why I never bought the ‘China will get lots of Central Asian guestarbeiter’ thesis, which frankly strikes me as wishful thinking from vatniks. China is a deeply inward-looking country and like much of East Asia it is also very xenophobic. This is changing somewhat in SK and Japan but only due to them being under the US aegis. Such factors are completely absent in China and will remain so.
If you look at Xi’s speeches, he even mentions blood and soil in explicit terms. He talks about ‘Chinese genes’. I don’t think he’s an outlier in his society.
Also wanted to add, National Chinese TFR maybe at worse 1.2 to 1.4, and not 0.6!
In the near future, I would expect the Chinese economy to transition from manufacturing/labor intensive based to more high tech based which uses more automation and robotics, requiring less manual labor. I think rural Chinese and non-Chinese ethnicities from such provinces like Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi – Zhuang which have way higher TFR, together with some Southeast Asian migrants can supply any additional labor needed. Their numbers would be sufficient to plug the holes. Don’t even think the Central Asians will be needed, what more Sub Saharan Africans with even poorer work ethic.
Most of those Africans in Guangzhou were ‘businessmen’ buying fake goods and selling back to their compatriots. The time of cheap fake goods will fade in China. So, there goes their source of ‘income’. Many African migrants in Europe are generally freeloaders capitalizing on generous social welfare benefits, economic parasites. China does not need nor welcome such pests. So, nope…. Won’t be many African migrants in China.
An Article on TFR in China:-
https://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/34066
Yes, this is a correct assessment. Economics is a deeply ideological field which pretends to be a mathematical dispassionate pursuit. It should be rechristened to its old name: Political Economy.
That said, it isn’t all hocus pocus. There are still objectively better and worse economic systems out there, and we have the 20th century to prove it. Ask any Russian.
I think this is more a reflection of Western myopia and dogma than the economics field itself. The so-called “East Asian model” is a misnomer. The originators were Friedrich List and Alexander Hamilton. They both advocated protestionist policies with a heavy state intervention. Hamilton was notorious for pushing for a centralised banking system to boot.
The early East Asians studied past experience and simply copied them. What happened is that the relentless rise of neoliberalism in the West, particularly after the mid-70s, caused a collective amnesia. So what was once a very Western growth strategy suddenly became ‘East Asian’. The East Asians weren’t pragmatic and the Western theorical, so much as that the East Asians were using previous theory that the West pretended didn’t exist anymore.
Even the Soviet system has similar antecedents, if you read history you can easily find historical analogies in the West. Some of this historical amensia was accidental but some of it was deliberate erasure, in order to create a clean slate.
That Shang dynasty vessel as a shot glass or something is quite nice detail.
For posterity’s sake, I’ll sum up my argument that led to this bet.
The US tolerated some of this for Beijing as long as it believed that China would essentially end up a Big Taiwan. Playing to US rules/diktats. That obviously didn’t happen so any conciliatory treatment is now out the window unless Deus Ex Machina happens (CCP falls from power etc). That is why extrapolating from SK/Taiwan/Japan is mistaken. The geopolitical situation is radically different. The US and its colonial proxies still largely control the developed world demand for export markets. This is crucial for any developing country, which China still is by any reasonable definition.
China is a big economy but it is also a huge country. Per capita GDP is only ~$10K. That means it is simply too poor to rely mostly on the domestic market without gorging on debt. Which is what it has been doing.
TSF (Total Social Financing) is now reaching close to 300% of GDP. Contra clown doomers like Gordon Chang, China isn’t going to collapse. But it will face Japanification, but crucially at much lower income levels.
China can still add leverage for 10-15 years before really starting to be hit by lower dynamism. So even in my ‘bearish’ scenario, China will continue converging with the West for the time being, but the price paid will be more and more debt. This may not seem like a big deal in these Coronavirus times, but China was adding debt far faster than any Western country in the 2010-2020 period. This was not the case in the 1980-2010 time frame. When a system starts adding huge amounts of debt to grow, it shows you something is broken. This is especially the case when they are still quite poor. By comparison, the Czech Republic’s total debt to GDP(public+private) is half that of China, despite being twice as rich.
Once China hits this wall, it will not collapse and probably not even fall behind much either. It will stabilise at or slightly above the US GDP and keep pace, but not overtake it further. I predict China will succeed in many of its key objectives (technological self-sufficiency) but it will fail to dislodge the US as the key hegemon. This is because the US controls a huge colonial puppet network which can act as a gigantic force multiplier. China is simply not capable of reproducing that. The US has Germany and Japan; China has Laos, Cambodia, Pakistan. Russia is the only half-decent friendly country to China, but it isn’t as submissive the US colonial subjects are and likely never will be.
The “final form of China” will be very significant adversary which will have unique capabilities of tharting US imperial policies in its own vicinity but not much outside of it. From Beijing’s perspective, this may be enough. It will be strong enough to avoid being bullied and can go toe-to-toe in its core areas of interest. What happens outside of that area may be less important. China’s rise will thus not significantly affect the balance of power in the MENA region or in LatAm. Nor will Chinese influence supplant US colonial diktat in Europe except in a few stray countries like possibly Serbia or other Balkanoids, which will be the exceptions that prove the rule.
I will end by saying that I hope I am wrong. The world would be a better place if I am. But I have to separate my wishes from my dispassionate analysis.
Thank you Ano4 for sharing this brilliant resource with us! I have read through it myself, but I’m still interested in your opinion, if you have time to share it.
I agree with you about China. I don’t think China will be a lone superpower or hegemony.
Having said that, I think by 2050, the USA power and influence will begin to dwindle. The bad fruits of current liberal/progressive policies will eat away American power as the world watches its waning.
China and Russia will not become hegemons like the USA of today, but perhaps the world will indeed become multipolar with USA losing its hegemon status.
Yes that also caught my eye, lovely touch.
Jue (vessel)
Within about the past year, there was a rumor that the CCP leaked some state policy paper about opening the borders, as a test of public opinion, and the response was very negative, so they dropped the matter, for the present. Being ignorant of Mandarin, I’ve not been able to find any mainstream source for it, but it is not the sort of thing that the mainstream would report, and the rumor had a Chinese origin, as far as I can tell.
I think just contemplating the recent past of the West, there was never a time, in the post war period, when open borders made sense. I don’t think the guest worker programs made sense, but certainly, after the ’70s, the whole idea was insane, but it was pursued much further. With America as an example, it never made sense to import blacks to Europe. The long-term thinkers who influenced policy were ideologues, and probably a lot of short-term thinking went into it.
Acceptance of foreign students from the Third World was an undervalued factor in the pozzing of America. It is why Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, and countless others (some unpleasant people that I’ve personally known) were born.
Another day, another euphemism for Jews
Also, China has not shown an immunity to Westetn insanity. Chinese communism makes clear they are highly susceptible to the worst kind of Western insanity.
Chinese may be racist now, but 50 years ago so was the West. Once you reorganize your culture along Western lines, as China has, it develops according to an internal logic you cant control.
China is still a poor country, and getting rich is still novel. When that ceases, idrological wars along Western Enlightenment lines will start. I am quite curious to see what shape they will take. They will be similar but different to the West.
Several quick points:
Many commenters talk as if GDP is an objective number. GDP is like the famous accountant answer to a CEO: “tell me what number you want and I have that audited number for you.” Listen to professor 翟东升 about why it is meaningless to discuss when will China GDP exceed US – it is more like when will China decide to have GDP exceeding the US (sorry in Chinese):
Most commenters also think the higher the GDP the better, not knowing that there are advantages of having lower stated GDP. In fact, China was caught UNDER-estimating the GDP in 1990s by the World Bank (in Chinese):
My opinion is that China’s NOMINAL (not PPP) GDP already exceeds US, if China would employ the same accounting standard as US. For example, US extensively uses the rent imputation in GDP – that alone overstated US GDP by about 10%. There are also many other factors like the size and nature of black market (cash market) in both countries, the treatment of financial instruments (e.g. China just ban the IPO of Jack Ma Ant Financial), etc – all factors tend to overstate US GDP vs China’s. And I am not even talking about the Dollar-Yuan exchange rate.
For “real” GDP like manufacturing – China is actually the largest – as big as the next three biggest manufacturing countries combined: US, Japan and Germany.
Most commenters also are not aware of how the next stage of China growth may or will come from, and what options and tools Chinese policy makers could employ. For just one example: listen to professor 温铁军 talk about monetarization of Chinese rural ecosystems (in Chinese):
Dispassionate analysis my ass. You are such a liar. As an Indian halting China is your most passionate wish. You pray to 1000 Hindu deities every day that you are right that China will choke itself.
They could rely on the domestic market but their growth would be smaller. The debt has nothing to do with it. The debt is meaningless in autarky. To have fast growth they need to buy resources and technology that’s why they need foreign markets to earn currency for purchases.
There are a little more than 600,000 total foreigners in China.
In 2015, China’s foreign-born population was 978,046. This figure doesn’t include the offspring of immigrants.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/immigration-statistics#:~:text=China%20Immigration%20Statistics%20-%20Historical%20Data%20%20,%20%200.04%20%208%20more%20rows%20
The doubling time of the foreign-born population seems to be a little more than 15 years. Again, offspring are excluded, so the real doubling time is shorter, given that immigrants tend to be younger and from countries with higher fertility. There is also the illegal foreign-born population, which seems to be mainly from Southeast Asia — with growing numbers from all over the world.
Could the foreign-born population go from a little over a million to 100 million in 30 years? Is that possible? Well, let’s do the math. If the doubling time is six years, there would be five doublings:
2 million (2026) 4 million (2032) 8 million (2038) 16 million (2044) 32 million (2050)
A little over 30 million. Yes, that’s a long way from 100 million, but we’re excluding offspring in these estimates. If the immigrants are mostly young and if they come mainly from high-fertility countries, the total could easily be 100 million.
But surely the Chinese would turn off the tap long before that happens, wouldn’t they? Aren’t they “based”? Well, that wasn’t the conclusion of a recent survey in 2017:
Han, D. (2017). Is China Ready for Foreigners?: Public Attitudes towards Immigration in China. China: An International Journal 15(2), 120-143. https://www.muse.jhu.edu/article/661222
On a final note, these are not things that have to be. These are merely things that will be if current trends continue.
The US dollar tanking will make the US a cheaper tourist destination, so I wouldn’t bet on these particular things tanking.
Investment banking, management consulting, defense contracting, lawyering, and heath care are the sorts of things I would bet on tanking.
Correction: Since offspring are already included in the first projection, I shouldn’t be adding them to the second. There’s still the factor of illegal immigration, however.
Don’t be too critical of the senile half-corpse. His intellectual peak would be to remember that his was elected president, not senator. W/o timely anti-Alzheimer medication he won’t remember even that.
It’s not so much prejudice as experience. The stores in the US are chock-full of Chinese products (it’s hard to find anything else, and if you are lucky, it’s made in Vietnam, Korea, Philippines, Taiwan, etc., instead of big China), and at least 90% of them are poor quality. It is not necessarily what the owners order. Say, Chinese military aircraft engine works w/o major repairs ~40 h, whereas Russian works ~ 400 h. When I was in China, I saw their big trucks that look exactly like Volvo or Mac trucks. However, when they go uphill, their speed becomes 10-20 mph, showing that their engines are crap.
There are good quality products in China (like their silk scarfs meant for the internal market), but the bulk has pretty low quality.
Several problems with that analysis.
So we will indeed move into much more asian century. According to various forecasts, Asia will account for more than 50 % of the global economy by 2050.
This is a tectonic shift, something like this never happened in the last 200 years.
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/asia-pacific/the-future-of-asia-asian-flows-and-networks-are-defining-the-next-phase-of-globalization
The US becoming number 3 economy in the world, behind China and India – this never happened in the last 150 years as well.
But China and India were always the world’s biggest economies before 1800.
Under current law, the Federal (Government) US debt is to reach 200 % of GDP, with 10 % anual budget deficits. Such deficits (10 % per anum and growing) mean hyperinflation in the US.
US budget shows that military and civilian spending will drop to all time low as percentage of GDP by 2030, in order to service the debt. The US can not police the world with 2.3 % of GDP military budget.
China is building BRI to further integrate its economy into non-western markets. Since non-western countries are growing faster than western countries, and will matter more and more, their markets will further power Chinese growth into the future.
Since Asia is becoming the center of the world economy, China is in a good place to be, due to simple economic gravity – Asian economies are powering each other due to being close to each other. While the US is far away and isolated from this economic cluster – the largest in the world.
China now has 3 times more diplomatic posts than the US. China is the biggest trading partner for most of the world.
China and EU are negotiating a new, large trade deal. Moreover, the balance of power in international institutions has changed. The WHO is well known to be lost to the US (this is why it left the organisation), the IMF position has been against the US trade war, the WTO recently sided with China against the US (this is why the WTO is blocked by the US), and the Gen Sec of the UN has called against a Cold War between the US and China. Nearly 50 countries blocked US anti- China moves at the UN. Many european countries joined the AIIB and BRI.
If everybody was a US puppet, none of this would happen. There are partial puppets, but no total puppets. This is why Japan and SK joined RCEP, while Italy joined BRI.
Importantly, China is counting on the non-western world. As these countries grow faster than the West, they will matter more and more into the future.
Being the biggest economy of scale (for China) is not mentioned. Both Japan and SK does not have economies of scale. This is a big benefit for the country, and all other things being equal, will contribute to higher growth in China than in SK and Japan. So even if China does not get the same US trade benefits compared to SK and Japan, will instead gain benefits due to being an economy of scale and due to the growing influence on non-western markets in the world (who were very small when Japan and SK grew). Thus the world is different from 1960 or 1990 and western markets are less important than before, while non-western markets are more important than before and grow faster.
China is no longer that dependent on exports, with the internal market growing, and accounting for more than 60 % of GDP.
China’s retail market recently overtook the US.
https://wwd.com/business-news/retail/china-to-overtake-u-s-as-worlds-largest-retail-market-in-1203659621/
China less dependent on trade than world’s average.
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20relience%20on%20exports.jpg?itok=bjxXbBog
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/china%20relience%20on%20exports.jpg?itok=bjxXbBog
https://ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/foresight/topic/expanding-influence-east-south/power-shifts_en
What do you think “trained economists” predicted at the beginning of 1929? None of them saw what was coming. There is a good reason for a joke “if you believe that infinite growth is possible, you are either mad, or an economist”.
Yep, there was apparently a fairly big online backlash by Chinese netizens on Weibo, and it wasn’t even “opening up the borders”, which implies mass immigration, but merely slowing very high skilled workers to permanently settle in China.
China’s Proposed Immigration Changes Spark Xenophobic Backlash Online
Apparently there was a thread on Weibo on this proposed change in immigration law which received over 150,000 comments, with all of the top 100 most upvoted comments rejecting the idea. This Weibo thread was later deleted by the admins.
Here is one of the comments (I used Google translate)
Obviously it seems many Chinese misunderstood the new law, but nevertheless this reaction is indicative of the views they have on immigration.
I think:
Lots of Chinese productivity is hidden because of illegal businesses like counterfeit goods. Hence higher GDP than statistics say.
America is losing competitiveness and relies on foreign workers. If America is unable to promise safety and security – those workers will no longer come. Who wants to work in silicon valley and dodge human excrement, needles, and hobos, when they can move to Shenzhen and live like a king in China’s innovation hub.
I think China will really pull away in the next few decades and America will sink under the weight of bad demographics, crime, corruption, and racial tension.
The gray economy issue is an important point. As the grey economy is higher in non-western countries, it means that their economies are underestimated.
I heard that due to the gray economy for example, the size of the russian economy is significantly underestimated.
Swedish racial demographics are terrible. 30 percent of youngsters are non-Swedes and the black population will pull away from the natives demographically, which has already happened in France, England, and much of the United States.
As for IQ — the youth have a pathological urge to burn cars. I follow a few Swedish youtubers: Jonna Jinton, Love Hulten, and Wintergaten. The rapefugees and their descendants are primitive animals compared to them.
Sweden is a carribbean country with ice. The natives will be pushed aside like the Irish “redlegs” of Barbados.
Do you all really think things will proceed according to bars and lines on your graphs? Chinavirus aka corona or whatever you want to call it has already shown that there are now bioweapons in play. Russia and the US have about an order of magnitude more nuclear weapons between them than the Chinese. China and India have a lot of excess males to throw at each other in a conventional war. This isn’t going to be the same game that was played during the 20th century. If I were China I would ramp up nuclear weapons production immediately and institute in secret a Sampson option whereby the entirety of Asia would face liquidation upon decimation of the Chinese population. At the end of the day that is all anyone is fighting over, more chattel. Burn it all if things don’t go your way.
Apparently the number of foreigners remain almost the same, and relatively low. It does not seem to be doubling as you predicted.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/1163632/china-still-has-the-smallest-share-of-incoming-migrants-in-the-world/amp/
Most of the migrants are from Asian countries like South Korea and Japan, those from South East Asia like from my country are Chinese diaspora, Western expats, and Foreign students(again mostly from Asian countries). Sub-Saharan Africans are not a major migrant group(although some Western journalists have ‘adviced’ the Chinese Govt to follow EU and open up to them)… Hopefully the Chinese Govt will resist all these ‘advice’ from Western ‘population experts’.
https://merics.org/en/report/how-immigration-shaping-chinese-society
I think as the US goes down, this “diversity is strength” shit will also go down.
Billions or perhaps trillions US dollars went onto these propaganda campaigns and training sessions, it doesn’t go unnoticed.
While the Eurasian Economic Union will not join RCEP anytime soon, China will indeed sign the blockbuster EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before the end of this year. With BRI, AIIB, RCEP, and EU-CAI, any attempt to contain China would just be a delusion.
https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-eu-eye-agreeing-on-landmark-investment-framework-by-december-ccceu-chief-says
Most African immigrants seem to have gone away, though there are a lot of Arabic ones that have replaced them.
I agree. Visited Stockholm, one of the capitals of ‘Progressive Valhalla’ some years back. Saw many remnants of burnt cars on the way back to my hotel. Also tried to visit Ikea headquarters there(I can’t remember the exact location now), it was shocking to see that the place was more like Middle East and Sub Saharan Africa combined – I was with my wife and we felt very unsafe. The Swedes seemed to be a minority at the train station there, so many ladies with black purdah and African guys loitering about. Very, very third world and I am from a ‘third world’ country myself.
Went for holiday in Paris before, I was traveling from London through the Eurostar – I was shocked to see the area nearby the train station were so dirty with rubbish everywhere and the condition of living nearby were like African ghettos. Near the Eiffel Tower were many Africans trying to fleece us tourists. Such scenes were replicated in Milan and Pisa when I visited those places.
Progressive ideals of Multicultural Utopia are obvious failures to me, a visiting tourist. I am not sure why Western European youths still believe in it like dogma and like a moral tenet not open to criticism.
Well the argument is that the Chinese do not depreciate their investments and assets properly, which exagerrates their total capital stock and yearly net income. Has anyone disproved this, that the Chinese do write down their bad investments and bad assets properly?
Well the argument is that China is a command economy, hence unlike a normal market economy, they can get away with not writing down bad assets and bad investments, so basically they can just ignore them and not reflect them on their balance sheet properly unlike other market economies. Plus they are a sort of command economy, so they can just order their banks to continue lending money indefinitely, unlike normal economies, where banks stop lending if they reach a certain level of bad debt, in China’s case they just pretend that the bad debt does not exist, and since they are an authoritarian commandish economy, everybody just plays along, basically their entire banking system may be insolvent, but since they are not a normal market economy, banks have no choice but to lend money, and since the Chinese are not allowed to invest their funds outside the country, they have no choice but to park their savings in Chinese banks, which provide the funds for Chinese banks to keep lending. My knowledge of the intricacies of economics and finance is not deep enough to properly critique these assertions, and I suspect few here in this blog have that level of expertise either. Basically debt does not behave in the same way in a command vs. market economy, hence for China debt does not matter.
Tsinghua Unigroup, the star firm in China’s quest for technological self-sufficiency, is on the verge of bankruptcy.
Do I enjoy reporting these kinds of news? No. But they have to be reported in order to return to a semblance of balance in the discussion on China’s ambitions and its limits. My belief that China will succeed in tech self-sufficiency is unshaken, but I think many vastly underestimate how gruelling the journey will be for Beijing.
“Do I enjoy reporting these kinds of news?” – Yes, you do. Everybody in India does.
Henry Kissinger gave China access to Western capital and technology supposedly to build them up to superpower status as an ally against Soviet Russia. Was it entirely coincidental that China was engaged in a proxy war in Vietnam against the US at the time and the US was coming apart domestically under the pressure? I have to wonder about some ongoing cognitive dissonance on Kissinger’s part because he is still talking as if the US needs China as a sidekick. Against who?
It seems the answer is: against no one, but if China is not given equitable terms of trade, which will lead to a flood of capital (Buffett’s best returns) and technology into China, then Henry says there may be a war. North Korea mysteriously has nuke ICBMs, and recovered NK missiles have Chinese parts in them. This all sounds rather like the quandary that the US was in over ending Vietnam, complete with a period of civil unrest and a proxy opponent refusing to let America back off without political concessions
You push your luck and cut your losses. In 1947 the US cut off aid to the nationalist forces in China and their morale collapsed. Nothing America has done since in regards to China has redounded to America’s long term benefit. Unless one believes that the various leaderships of the US since WW2 were all incompetent, the only reasonable conclusion is that America is no match for China; it’s too big as a reservoir of disease, cheap labour and many other things that go with it being ten times the size of Japan, not an island, and absence of individualism. If China is going to dominate the Global Market, then it is opportune to continue and intensify the disengagement from that market already underway in response to the pandemic.
You’re still making projections solely from a recent snapshot.
A lot of the killer-quality household goods which I own and will use for the rest of my life, were made in China in the early 2000s.
If the Chinese stuff sold nowadays in the US is mostly flimsy, it’s not because they can’t produce better, but because the overwhelming majority of shoppers in the US won’t (or can’t) pay for higher quality anymore.
Nice to see someone is able to think outside the box, or in this case outside of Anatoly’s quick-sketched frame of reference!
Except for the “of [generally] poor quality” part, I fully agree with AnonFromTN.
Plus there will very likely be no more IMF in 2050, nor a direct successor.
And to the jokers here talking about [Chinese] age pyramid structure problems: yeah, just look at the large scale social unrest over the last few years in Japan!
The age pyramid is almost meaningless (especially when outright ignoring highly-skilled to lowly-skilled [immigrant] ratios) as what matters much, much more is social cohesion!
And there the US (and all the West) is once again in a much worse position than China, or most Asian (Confucius influenced?) countries.
In summary, Thulean Friend can almost give Anatoly the prize today, as the only conceivable scenario where he “wins” is one where most of us, and probably them, won’t be alive in 2050 anymore.
If you’d bet ethereum, I’d think you wouldn’t be very sure, because ethereum will be zero in 2050. Much earlier, btw.
Swedes have more babies than most Europeans do. There is no reason why the native population, which is more fertile and younger than most European populations, will be displaced.
I highly doubt that, given the demographic momentum and the relatively recent replacement fertility rate. Do you have any sources?
What a weird comment. First off, vatniks don’t think about such things at all (wishfully or not).
Second, it is a simple observation that Central Asians have been increasingly opting for South Korea over Russia since c.2015, China in twenty years may well have South Korean-tier demographics while Central Asians have at least to date been immune to the fertility decline happening in much of the rest of the world. The conditions for seasonal Central Asian labor by the 2030s-40s in China will become very favorable as China becomes a rich society and the pool of floating workers dries up.
There are limits to ideology. Germany got its first mass influx of “Gastarbeiters” during the early 1940s.
You could argue that the 15 quintillion Uighurs sent to work in East Coast factories are gastarbeiter of a sort, they have neither the proclivity nor the means to settle permanently where they are now working, but they do send their salaries back west and I assume will one day return, bringing Han cultural practices with them when they do so.
In 30 years, King Dollar might be Jack Dollar or even Joker Dollar. It might be King Yuan, instead.
It’s official statistics. You’ll find it on scb.se/en then going to
Population – Population statistics – Foreign/Swedish background – Number of persons with foreign or Swedish background (detailed division) by region, age and sex. Year 2002 – 2019.
I agree that in 30 years US dollar won’t be king, it would likely have a status of a not very reliable second- or third-tier currency. But I think king yuan is highly unlikely, at least if financial people have brains (this might be a big if). The financial system would suffer a lot when the dollar crashes, the recovery will be painful and prolonged. So, I don’t think the international financial system will repeat current huge mistake and allow any single currency to become dominant. My prediction is that either something with real value (like gold) or a basket of 5-10 currencies (which might or might not include the US dollar) will become the basis.
Here is my projection for Chinese immigration policy over the next 30 years.
There won’t be very much of it relative to the Chinese population. The Chinese will follow the Japanese model not the European, American or even the Russian model. They will do everything humanly possible to avoid immigration, mechanisation, automatization, robotisation and raising the ridiculously low retirement age in China to the international standard. China has very low labor productivity to this day, there is immense scope for improvement without importing a single foreigner.
When the day comes that the CCP leadership feels that immigration is the only option left to continue China economic growth, I believe this will occur at the earliest after 2030. They certainly will not throw open the gates to Uzbek’s or Tajiks, let alone Africans. The first wave of immigration to China will undoubtedly come from the Chinese Diaspora, all 50 to 60 million of them. The bulk of them who reside in South East Asia, 12 million in Thailand, 7 million in Malaysia, 3 million in Indonesia ( A gross understatement IMHO, more likely 6 million+), Myanmar 2 million etc. There are signs that the CCP is already thinking in this direction.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-to-issue-5-year-visas-for-foreigners-of-chinese-origin
The more they loosen requirements the more will come. The difference in living standards between China and South East Asia will only grow over the next 20 years, that will be their motivation for making Chinese Aliyah.
Won’t the Chinese diaspora also be old?
Check out the median age of Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians, Bulgarians, Serbs, Hungarians, Poles, Ukrainians, Cubans and Puerto Ricans.
I think you understand the point I’m trying to make.
Plenty of them still make aliyah to the UK and US.
This is an idiotic policy (but the CCP doesn’t have a great track record of smart, Han-benefiting strategies anyways). The Han diaspora in SEA is like the Jewish diaspora in America on steroids. Encouraging Malaysian or Thai Chinese who control the economies of those countries to return to the homeland to get IQ shredded is pants-on-head retarded. Unlike Israel, it’s not like China is some apartheid state with a near minority-majority that desperately requires Han worldwide to return to provide a human buffer against a high fertility minority threatening to push them into the sea. And anyways, no Chinese population anywhere on earth has a TFR above replacement nowadays.
You should not comment on things you know nothing about.
Actually native swedish TFR is around 1,6, which is quite close to european/US TFR and nothing to brag about.
This number is below replacement rate and it is dropping with every year. Not to mention that the swedish population is older than the migrant population, which also has further negative impact on birth rate per 1000.
Swedish TFR is around 1.9 and was above replacement level less than 30 years ago. This means they have demographic momentum so it keeps growing despite a slightly below replacement level fertility rate.
I interpret this as being laudatory, but I do wonder about the historical support for revolutionary communism of both populations. Any HBD explanation in there? Got to figure with the Chinese expats in SEA, you are dealing with subsets of subsets.
Maybe, they would just be more enthnocentric Chinese? With more business sense?
It’s 1.7.
Another way to put is that 1990 and 1991 are the only years since 1967 that Sweden has had replacement fertility.
That was the First wave of immigration to China, If that should prove to be insufficient. There will be a second wave, say hello to the Chinese Mestizo!
The numbers I’ve given above are for people of “pure” Chinese ancestry or close to it, like Tiger Mother Amy Chua or Lee Kuan Yew. They are certainly not the only type of Chinese in this world, people of mixed Chinese ancestry exist in huge numbers in South East Asia. 20 to 30 million Chinese Mestizo exist in the Philippines depending on what blood quantum you use. The compose a large part of the Filipino middle class and are known as mestizo de Sangley. Examples of such are Jose Rizal and Ferdinand Marcos.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sangley
The same can be said of Thailand, as many 10 million mixed race Chinese exist in Thailand. Some 40% of the people in Bangkok are said to have some Chinese ancestry, a good example of this is current Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is not Chinese but has Chinese ancestry. These Chinese mestizo communities exist through out South East Asia in particular Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam and even Indonesia despite it been a predominately Islamic country (shout out to Carl Zha). This adds a further 60 million people pool from which China can draw immigrants from.
These Chinese Mestizo might not be the ideal immigrants, but I can guarantee you they will be let into China way before any Central Asian Gastarbeiter or African will ever be given consideration.
Beijing has never been the richest part of China. Are there charts showing wages for Jiangnan? I’ve seen that various other related metrics such as literacy, books published, etc. for Jiangnan track closer to Europe and Japan before the late Qing malaise.
Neither of you are fully accurate. It’s true that Swedish fertility has fallen in recent years, but it has avoided the collapse that we’ve seen in Finland. At least thus far.
At the same time, it was periodically lower in previous decades. So this seems indicative of a ‘breeder’ effect kicking in. It’s not like welfare for families have gotten more generous in the last 20 years. The Swedish welfare state was in many ways much more generous in the 1960s-80s. During that period, fertility declined from 2.5 to a nadir of 1.6 in the early 80s.
It paradoxically rose even as welfare benefits got slashed and neoliberalism kicked in during the mid-1980s, which later led to a huge crisis in the early 1990s due to massive deregulation of the financial sector. (People never learn).
The data I’ve looked at from SCB (our statistical agency) shows no big differentials between 2nd gen and natives of “Swedish background” as they call it. In fact, those with Swedish background have even slightly higher fertility. 1st gen migrants are a different story, those from MENA and SSA typically average 3-4 per woman. But their kids don’t.
Finally, Nordic fertility patterns are a global outlier in the sense that they are not dysgenic. Though as Emil Kierkegaard has pointed out, genetic IQ seems to have peaked several decades ago in all countries regardless.
Good point.
Though, I can’t see gold making a return within 30 years. I think the big players are all against it. And I’m not sure it even works well, when it comes to global trade. I think it motivates everyone to accumulate. Something like that might end cheap electronic goods, which are the opium of the masses. Given inflation, it is remarkable how cheap TVs are now, even though they all spy on you.
I guess a basket of currencies is most likely, unless China picks up a lot of global pull. Makes the security guarantees. Keeps the shipping lanes open, or else, picks up a significant interest in a strategic commodity – perhaps, longterm leases on arable land in Africa. But, I don’t think those things are especially likely to cause King Yuan. For one, I’m not sure a naval hegemon is needed to keep shipping open, and I think most people don’t really believe it is necessary. Secondly, I’m not sure that in 2050, food will have a lot of power, maybe 2100.
Good point. Most people don’t know where the highest rated General Motors factory is… Those same people would be surprised and wonder why Tesla is now exporting to Europe from Shanghai…
Well except that China is 10x the size of Japan… And because they are militarily independent – they wont sign a Plaza Accord type of agreement.
Correct… Many people were against it because they didnt want foreigners taking jobs from Chinese. That said in regards to students – China is #2 in foreign students (or 3 depending on where the UK is after Brexit)… The difference is students are expected to return home. More African students are in China than anywhere else. But they are trained to go home and build up their own nation. Pakistanis too.
True but in the last 25 years it has been China for him. He has been on dozens of talk shows, talking all about it.
Vietnamese are mostly Chinese mestizos to start with, IMO. Only they don’t understand that they are because the sinicization process began a long time ago, and they were distracted by the newer Chinese settlers.
To stretch an analogy past the breaking point, they are kind of like Indians to Europeans.
If you are talking about wages then wages in the Yangtze delta region were way below wages in Northwest Europe in the early 19th century and were barely above the subsistence level.
A large Chinese mestizo community also exist in Peru, numbering 5 million people, all of whom who would make more suitable immigrants to China than Muslim Central Asians or Sub Saharan Africans. Just imagine someone who is a quarter Chinese, a quarter White and half Indio.
https://cdn-0.enacademic.com/pictures/enwiki/67/Chinese-Peruvian.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/Condecoran_al_Presidente_de_la_República_Popular_China_%2831128355276%29.jpg
That analogy works for both dot and feather Indians. Mal’ta–Buret vs Yamnaya.
https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/singlegen.jpg
I belong to one of the Chinese diaspora in SEA. In my country, yes, our community is more ethnocentric because of decades of racial/communal politics. Most of us belong to the business world, others are in the middle class. The Chinese diaspora in SEA were indeed called the ‘Jews of the East’ (apparently it was a term coined by a Siamese monarch) because they tended to control SEA economies in the past.
I do not have the exact percentages but in the past, there were quite a number of communists or communist sympathizers in the Chinese community here. There were also likely more pro Kuomintang (KMT) supporters. My late grandfather was a KMT supporter. When the CCP took over China, most of the community chose to remain here because they do not support communism. Communist sympathizers population were already beginning to wane by that time.
Most of the Chinese in SEA are from Southeastern Chinese Provinces like Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and a very small number from Wu dialect speaking provinces like Zhejiang. We escaped the Cultural Revolution purges of Mao’s Era and perhaps retain certain traditional Chinese cultural traits lost in mainland China due to those purges.
In the future, yes, there might be some who may immigrate to China because the government in my country is seen to be more and more anti-(local) Chinese. The ties between the Chinese community here and their mainland relatives are getting stronger as the years go by. I myself have many relatives in Guangdong and Fujian although I have yet to renew ties with them. Generally speaking, most of them in my country are Mandarin-educated and pro-China. A minority, including myself, are not Mandarin-educated, tend to be more Western oriented(although nowadays I am very critical of the West). Living as part of a minority community and experiencing discriminatory policies, I am very very critical of Western progressive ideal of multiculturalism as a very stupid and idiotic policy that destroys national cohesion.
Southern Chinese are stereotyped to be more business-savvy compared to Northern Chinese, maybe there is some truth in it, maybe not.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chinaeducationaltours.com/guide/article-different-chinese.htm
Could you link to the paper, please? Thanks.
Thanks.
Yes, many ‘mixed blood’ Filipino-Chinese and Thai-Chinese. Some may indeed look more Austronesian but won’t be so difficult to reintegrate in the economically richer and culturally similar Southeastern provinces like Guangdong and Fujian. These provinces had historically, and even today, been China’s gateways to the world.
Moreover, most of the SEA Chinese diaspora ancestry are from South China. The Southern Chinese also likely have some Austronesian and Tai-Kadai ancestry because in the past Northerners invaded and intermingled with native tribes belonging to the Baiyue(100 Yue) who probably were Austronesian, Austroasiatic and Tai-Kadai tribes. Definitely easier to integrate compared to Central Asians or totally unintegrable Sub-Saharan Africans.
The Vietnamese (especially to the North) are quite similar to many Southern Chinese in terms of physical appearances because they too are related to the Baiyue and had intermingled with many migrants from China during almost a millennium of Chinese dominance.
That’s accurate, e.g.:
Allen, R. C., Bassino, J.-P., Ma, D., Moll-Murata, C., & Van Zanden, J. L. (2011). Wages, prices, and living standards in China, 1738–1925: in comparison with Europe, Japan, and India. The Economic History Review, 64, 8–38.
This is my experience as well. I have also seen some statistics supporting this but I don’t remember the source or the numbers. It seems to be common that when uneducated married couples from MENA+SSA immigrate to a western country they will spend their first few years having children while living off welfare. But this type of behavior is much rarer for second generation immigrants.
This is likely true. But I think it will not alter the trajectory of rapid rise in the population with MENA + SSA origins in Sweden. New migrants from those areas will continue to flow into Sweden as long as current Government policies on migration remains. These migrants will have these effects:-
1. Offset the effects of lower fecundity in the 2nd or 3rd generation migrants. So overall the relative TFR of these groups will remain higher than native Swedes due to bolstering of new migrants. Family reunion of immigrants and pro multiculturalism policies of Swedish political elites will ensure this.
2. Bolstering of immigrant cultures and further non-integrability due to their greater numbers. Why would they want to integrate to mainstream native Swedish culture when the path of least resistance is there by greater migration of their kin?
I think Scandinavia as a whole, face ethnocultural extinction of their native populations – either by increased interracial unions or racial wars/violence(in which the cucked male descendants of Vikings don’t stand a chance vs SSA or MENA men) or both…. Once critical mass of MENA and SSA migrants have been reached.
Thulean Friend’s nitpicking of native Swedish TFR vs other European countries’ native population TFR won’t change this trajectory as long as the status quo remains for Sweden’s migration policies.
See one study regarding this…
https://content.sciendo.com/configurable/contentpage/journals$002fbog$002f39$002f39$002farticle-p147.xml
I don’t see India as having all that much potential, it wasn’t feared as China was by racialists such as Arthur de Gobineau, who thought the Chinese not inferior to Europeans though different in character. I think western elites’ strategic thinking about the power China will have when it has the world’s-largest economy revolves around a conviction they will never have a technological edge over the US. Even John Mearsheimer subscribes to that point of view, which is predicated on the US attracting the brightest and most energetic immigrants, and the first generation Immigrant Americans being of similar high quality
The leading American strategists are in a great many cases Jewish (like Kissinger), and rather old. I cannot help wondering if they are assuming the US can continue to count on importing immigrants of the quality of past waves of Jews. When immigrants smart enough to give the US technological edge for the foreseeable future are being talked about by China hands’ in the US foreign policy establishment, I think it is Ashkenazi Jews that the speaker actually has in mind.
The marriage practices encouraging the mating of the most intelligent Jews to each other that MacDonald described in A People That Shall Dwell Alone have long since ceased (apart from the Ultra Orthodox community). The “homozygous fringe” genius Jews are in all likelihood getting more rare in the countries America draws on for them.
Given China’s excess of males, low IQ men must be prominent among those who never reproduce, and the quality of the Chinese population will improve on those grounds and also though remarriage of successful men reproducing with more than one woman. The greatest IQ raising effect on the generation that will be at peak productivity by 2050 must surely be associative mating currently going on in the vast workplaces and educational institutes of China.
Apart from the (Ashkenazi Jewish model) immigrant, another inexhaustible advantage the US is said to have is in its society’s cultural creativity, which fosters individual innovation. Even if innovation is a zero-sum game, which outside military technology it is not, there is to very little evidence from history that the Chinese are incapable of original discoveries for all their conformism. While the period of innovation faded as the official ideology became Taoist with ideas of harmony and avoiding disruptive striving for progress this was a matter of policy. The current Chinese government has a policy of incentivising innovation and China has more international patent applications than any other country as a result of a 200-fold increase in the last two decades. Inculcation of normative behavior seems to beat individualism when it comes to letting a thousand flowers bloom.
The world most people want to live in does not have genetic causation of the important stuff, and is the same one in which China cannot be the world technological leader without a far bigger economy than anyone else and probably not even then.
Apple, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, ie the largest, most successful companies in the US, are all in “financial services,” news to me. 😉 I agree about the Fed and national debt Ponzi scheme crashing one day, but that’s not the full picture.
The reason the US got out of making “real” physical goods is because those are commodities now and a shrinking sector of the world economy. People are willing to pay much more for services and creative endeavors, like the iOS software that runs the new iPhone or the latest Avengers movie, so that’s where the US market economy has moved. Yes, that means a bunch of manufacturing workers in Flint are out of work, but that’s preferable to many more in the US living like Foxconn workers in China.
But as always, everybody looks backwards to the last war: it really doesn’t matter whether you think the US should have more Fords than Microsofts. That entire corporate model is dying out.
In the new Internet society that we’re moving into, there will be random dudes in Vietnam quietly earning $50k per day by themselves. These people will be anywhere there is Internet, ie randomly dispersed all over the world, and they will be the producers in this new economy.
All the government policy in the world to help the manufacturing or software sectors, whether in China or the US, is irrelevant in the face of this radical change that is coming. To the extent that the Chinese Internet is censored and holds back such creators, they will fall further behind.
10x the size and just as aged, tired, and impotent. China is food dependent on the West and food exports to China from the USA are skyrocketing due to insufficient stocks.
Not in TFR, but since 2nd gen migrants are younger than swedes, you end up with higher birth rate per 1000 anyway.
That is, two populations with equal TFR will have different birth rate if one is younger than the other.
India is estimated by most studies to overtake the US economy in GDP MER somewhere between 2060 – 2080, depending on study.
In GDP PPP, to overtake the US around 2050.
There will also be massive coercion by the governments of the migrants’ countries of origin in that they will use their diaspora to meddle in the politics of the European nations. I highly doubt the mainstream media will talk about this type of “foreign meddling” and will instead focus on the relatively benign Russian, Iranian, North Korean etc meddling.
What you say is likely correct about population…. Though I dont think we know what the advemt of advanced robotics and artificial intelligence will do to the workforce in advanced economies.
What is your analysis?
Utter nonsense. Secular and moxerate Uighurs have been moving to the east coast of China for decades now. You could find their restaurants and businesses. There werr mosques for them if they were soinclined since the Hui Muslims – who are more numerous than Uighurs in China – were already there in most cases. Hui Muslims keep their religion. Western propaganda has fed you nonsense and you digested it. Here is the big joke – the propaganda gpt it backwards… The supposedly forced workers are in Xinjiang… The country “forced” companies to invest in Xinjiang so that the non-ambitious Uighurs could have moxern jobs closer to home. Ohhh – the horrors!!! Langley PSYOPS really do a good job I must say.
The Chinese dont want a King Yuan. It requires too many financial and political machinations. You become a slave to your own hegemonic position.
Just think where all of the above, as well as advertising-dependent Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, and similar companies, will be when the US dollar value crashes and the US living standards go down to 10-20% of current levels. Imagine how valuable new OS, movies, and exhibitionism on “social media” would become to people when food is their main preoccupation.
Think about it, then come back.
The dollar is irrelevant, and already on its way out with Bitcoin touching $20k again (Bitcoin is too inefficient to win out, but something built with similar crypto tech will double-tap all the national currencies). The companies I listed would be in a stronger position if the dollar drops, as their giant investment portfolios will strengthen their hand relative to everyone else barely hanging on.
As for fantasies of giant drops in US living standards and scrounging for food because of a drop in dollar value, keep dreaming: the national currency just isn’t that important now that digital tokens are here to replace it. A dollar drop will hit hard those who are heavily into dollar-denominated investments and contracts but those people only have themselves to blame, like all the jews left penniless by Madoff.
FYI, the relative value of the US dollar affects the price of virtually everything you buy daily. Visit any Walmart, Target, or more upscale department store: there is virtually nothing there that is not imported. Same with Home Depot, Lowes, etc. The price of imported goods will go up to the same extent as the dollar goes down. Unemployment will shoot up more than it did in 2020, as maybe 10% of the people will be needed to sell cheap shit that will stop being cheap (but remain shit). Trucking will go down to the same extent, as most trucks distribute cheap imported shit. Landlords and utilities would lose a lot as people won’t be able to pay their bills. People won’t be able to afford new cars, new homes, and other things. When the house of cards falls, every card goes down, no exceptions.
A dollar drop will have an effect, but not as large as you prophesy. The US is also a giant exporter, $2.5 trillion last year, and exports will go up if the dollar drops and makes US goods cheaper.
Meanwhile, new non-dollar digital payment options keep cropping up all over the place, and will replace the dollar in your lifetime. At that point, you will have to stop raving about the dollar and will have to move on to flouride in the water or something else. 😉
Food exports to China from the US is strictly for trade balance. That is the only thing the US will sell that China wants. China has been increasing buying from Russia and Brazil becauze of US hostility. Many US farmers have gone bankrupt while no one in China is starving because of it. Austrialia – is close to suffering the same fate for following Trump’s hostility. 40 % of Australia’s overall export went to China. Chinese are not going to starve because of it. You also might want to see which countries produce the most of what agriculture products.
You are badly misinformed.
I think you are confused, I know for a fact that Uyghurs (besides radicalized Islamists) are not being persecuted and there is no slave labor to be found there. My family operates a chemical plant which we relocated to Xinjiang because of increasing regulation on the East Coast, easier access to credit and financial incentives inland, and you do in fact have to pay Uyghurs for them to work in your factory (though wages are lower than in Jiangsu or Shandong)
Big export item was soybeans that China used to buy before the US stupidly started a trade war with China. Another big item was Boeing airplanes, mostly Boeing 737 Max (you should know how great it is). Plus lots of “services”. LOL.
I agree with much of what you said except for automation and robotization. It is stated policy of the Chinese government to take the lead in robots and AI. Already 1/3 of Industrial robot installation globally is in China. Much of it European amd Japanese companies now making them in China. The government wants those to be local companies in the coming years. As to AI – China is already neck and neck with the US. The two caveats being the government is encouraging the use of data collection to make the system better and also a large share of the top AI researchers in the US are Chinese nationals.
My apologies then… I didnt detect the sarcasm. Understood.
Typo on my part, it should read.
That is not a prerequisite for immigrant source populations, it helps but is unnecessary. The Balkan and Baltic countries are proof of this as is the massive migration of ethnic Russian from Central Asia despite them (Russians) having ultra low TFR. Other factors are more important such as living standards and other less tangible benefits. As are push factors such as ethnic pogroms eg May 1998 riots of Indonesia. If others are hostile to them and China welcoming, they will come to the promised land.
https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=1714
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Song-Chun_Zhu
Mine left Guangdong because of the British (some did settle in Hong Kong though). There has been mixture everywhere we have gone. Only a few were concerned with remaining 100% Chinese blood – but even the mixed considered it very important to keep Chinese culture.
Indeed most were not happy about the Communist Revolution – but for the most part nobody cares about that except for a couple nowadays. Most are simply happy to see China strong again.
Predictions and “estimates” by “most studies” 30 years out have historically had a poor track record.
The future ain’t what it used to be.
No dummy, you are worse than misinformed, you are coping. China is importing record amounts of beef and pork because African swine flu and sheer logistics have depleted China’s meat supply, meaning they have no choice but to import food to stay alive. And it’a only going to grow more and more dependent on the United States as time goes on, since intermittent fasting isn’t going to be a popular sales pitch by the Communist Party to its citizens.
https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/usChinaExports5_trade-surplus_0.png
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/products-1b-exports-china-chart.jpg
In 1788, my distant relative, an officer in the East India Company army was posted to Canton for three years. He and other foreigners were only allowed to live in their forts, in an isolated district, during the summer trading season. They wintered in Macao. Absolutely NO European women were allowed to set foot in China. Racial purity has long been a Chinese idea. The men only policies of the US and Australia were reciprocation.
https://www.agequipmentintelligence.com/ext/resources/aei/2020/July/US-Agricultural-Exports-to-China–2007-20.jpg
“Most are simply happy to see China strong again”.
Agree with this.
Doesn’t necessarily mean I wish China to be a superpower like the USA, but at least strong enough to resist disadvantageous ‘diktats’ from Washington and/or Brussels(ie Berlin). I prefer a multipolar world of some powerful states rather than total monopoly of power and influence in one country like the current situation.
India will overtake the US economy by 2100 rather than by 2060. A realistic target for India in 2060 is matching China’s 2019 GDP (inflation adjusted).
India’s economic growth in the 2010s especially under Modi was suspect. The official numbers were widely thought to be inflated. (Of course, China’s GDP is widely thought to be inflated but third party numbers showing robust consumer markets back up the GDP numbers unlike in India.) And in 2019, official numbers even showed growth had dramatically slowed down to 4% in the last calendar quarter of 2019. Those studies estimating India will grow 2x faster than it will are doing a disservice to strategists in Washington, who operate under the illusion that a strong India combined with a scaled back US in Asia can counterbalance China.
What is the alternative in South-east Asia, except for expulsion of the Chinese minorities?
I wouldnt say that the racial purity has been a Chinese idea. After Han Chinese successfully revolted against Mongols and established the Ming dynasty. All the men of the Semu caste were forced to take Han women as wives. Semu were a class of foreign administrators, clerks, officials, artesans etc, imported by the Mongols to China, so that they would be an useful underling class for the Mongol masters and help them in administration of the empire.
But in the 18th century, the Han did not rule the China, but the Tungusic Manchus, and Manchus had old laws that prohibited marrying of between Manchus and Han, and between Mongol and Han, they were strictly enforced, the Mongols were even prohibited to learn Chinese or eat Chinese foods by the Qing laws. There was even so called Willow palisade that marked the line beyond Han were forbidden to settle, of course there were some exceptions.
Theres always multiculturalism of traditional empires, its not like the west is the first place that various faiths and cultures coexisting with each other. Ayutthaya Kingdom, ancient Burma or Tangoo all had quite large Chinese minorities without any problems.
Again – that is simply for trade imbalance. I already see someone else pointed you to more up to date numbers.
In any event – you are one of the clowns who thinks China is starving because the government said not to waste food. The reason they said it has NOTHING to do with food supplies. It has to do with ecological waste – obesity/diabetes. Those things are all rising. They are all rising because Chinese are NOT starving.
Fact is it is NOT a good thing that Chinese are importing more beef. They import beef because they can AFFORD it. But it’s not good since too much beef is not healthy – nor ecologically sound either. But carry on. I would quote Forrest Gump – but I will leave that alone.
They have pretty good track record on macro trends – that is – on the increasing size of non-western economies over the last 30 years.
There are also worse case scenarios and even under worse case scenarios non-western countries are to continue to grow faster than western countries.
US future growth is suspect too, due to very large debt levels. A lower growth in the US and lower growth in India brings you back to the same relative position.
These are not simply US studies either, but also european studies and studies by the UN to estimate the world economy by 2100. So this isn’t about US biases either.
Plus this isn’t about China or about India, but about the fact that non-western economies overall grow faster than western economies due to catch up effects.
Better than eating insects or vegetable mush or white rice
Perhaps a Han mother made you Han but a foreign mother’s children were foreign?
Han are not Jews, Ha Ha!
Still, the point is that encouraging returnees is counterproductive. Why would you actively encourage relinquishing semi-colonial control over a subcontinent of 600 million-odd people just to add half or one percentage point to your annual GDP growth?
The same applies for Chinese immigration to Western countries. The US is too much of a demographic behemoth to influence much outside of individual states (Hawaii is an excellent candidate for this) but smaller Anglosphere countries like Canada or Australia could be flipped easily, even if the immigrants have subreplacement TFR. Even a shithole like Henan has 100 million peasants, just sending half of them to Canada and Australia would push those two countries into becoming Chinese-majority, and you don’t even need that many, really. The additional benefit is that these two countries are essentially resource outposts with decent-sized consumer markets, with little in the way of militarily significant O-ring industries (Bombardier is a joke), so if you’re sending your cognitive elite as is happening now, they won’t be working on anything that could pose a military threat to you in the future, just consumer widgets and improving resource extraction efficiency.
Increasing Western hostility is actually beneficial for this, it builds asabiyyah amongst what would otherwise be deracinated strives. There has been an increase of patriotism in Malaysian and Indonesian Chinese precisely because of local hostility to those groups. The better these Chinese immigrants are treated in the West, the less likely they will be willing to form a fifth column. And of course, we should not discount the Chinese domestic tech industry (WeChat, Weibo, even anime sites like Bilibili), which helps keep immigrants to the West strapped into the Chinese news ecosystem. I know silicon engineers who have lived in Canada for going on 10 years who only speak English at work (to their mainly Indian colleagues), but outside of that, dine in Chinese restaurants, shop at Chinese supermarkets, vacation with Chinese tour groups, and go home to watch CCTV, read articles on WeChat and follow the latest trendy domestic dramas.
No, we aren’t Jews. Its cultural mores.
Anglos dont deserve Australia, a Han Australia would be a wonderful thing. Australia still has lots of thinly populated and not well utilised subtropical areas, which would be excellent for Indian or Chinese colonisation, especially in the North and North East of Australia. Australia could easily have a population of 100+ million, the Anglos can and should be minority there. At the present moment their progressive ideology is an obstacle that stands against the genuine advancement of mankind.
I dont have such opinion regarding the fate of Europe, not at all, I just believe that the Anglo civilization is the Carthage of our era.
China is far more Carthage in attitude than Europe, to be honest. Delenda est carthago is an attitude very alien to the at least purported “win-win-win” strategy of the Chinese. It can be a weakness, as it it was for Carthage.
China is just China. Truly we are living odd times when I need to say this to a Chinaman. Actually it’s old trope that the England is Carthage, it was already employed by the French and Germans when those nations still tried to beat the perfidious Albion. Now when the USA has taken the mantle of England, its natural to think that the USA or the Anglo civilization as whole is the Carthage of our era. Really without the England France or Germany could have created a new Roman Empire and unified the Western civilization through military victories and arms and not by back room deals and dollars. French of the old even spoke how they are like the Romans and Anglos are the Carthage.
Reading this made me feel ill. You are a true bugman, a spiritual insect. You shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near Australia.
It’d be bright if they didn’t have so many third worlders.
Change your societal ideology, then I wouldn’t think so. Also I have a good motive for such plan. A colonisation of Australia could lessen the population pressure in those areas of Asia that suffer from ecological disasters or are on verge of such disasters. Australia is an ideal candidate for such colonisation, it has low population density and not much history, English started the colonisation of the North America about 200 years before they came to Australia. I would never support such colonisation towards cultures and countries who are well established and have long traditions.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Australia-climate-map_MJC01.png
Im not insulted by your bugman accusations, I think its funny that you do so. Even though Im just speaking in behalf of utilitarian and pragmatic imperialism, something that Anglos once knew very well. At least Im not wanting to ship Negros to other lands, ha ha.
There has been some stuff written, I suppose, about women tending to have a significant influence on children due to linguistic adoption(the literal “mother’s tongue”). Given that Mandarin is pretty universal and a major cultural signifier, it clearly hasn’t mattered that much despite the many populations that China has absorbed by now – e.g. Sogdian women were mentioned often in old poetry, but the Sogdian language has not endured.
There are some interesting considerations of spoken language via dialects, but all of that seems to be fading away into universal Mandarin.
Beside foodstuffs, China is also a major importer of semiconductors. The United States is one of the important exporters of semiconductors for China.
I wonder what foodstuffs China exports? The only goods i have seen are pumpkin seeds, dried goji berries and noodles.
I also don’t know many but I can at least add garlic, tea, spices, vinegar and soy to your list.
Some time ago we discussed here the genetics and genetical difference of the southern and northern Han, and some one posted a study that showed that the male lineage of Nanfangren was almost wholly same genetically as the Northerners, but the southern female lineage was halfly derived from the ancient inhabitants of the southern China.
Sogdians by the way were the ancient inhabitants of the Fergana and some parts of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. But you are right regarding the language. The Chinese by the way are probably the only civilization that has successfully assimilated the Jews, or the so called Kaifeng Jews. At least in past thousand years.
Not in my experience (I am not Chinese, though). Some years ago I interviewed a Chinese guy from Shanghai area for a post-doc position. I always let the interviewees to talk to the people I have in the lab. After the interview I told my Chinese post-doc from Xinjian, whose native language is Mandarin, that I like the guy, but I don’t like his heavy accent in English. She told me that his accent in Mandarin is just as heavy. I ended up hiring him and he turned out to be one of the best post-docs I had (now he is an Assistant Professor at a different University).
I know one other edible Chinese export I like a lot: lychee fruits.
Yours is probably the last generation that will experience that, unfortunately or otherwise. What I mentioned is what’s happening now, and most likely will immantize in the coming generation.
Gross.
France and Germany are natural enemies.
India is the single hardest big country to forecast in my view. A major complicating factor is that its elites are much more split than in China. For all the talk about a ‘Hindu Rashtra’, Modi has failed to deliver on something as basic as UCC as of yet. This means that even though BJP has become politically salient, the liberal pro-West crowd is still largely setting the cultural tone. They may have lost the battle on secularism, but this is more about Hindu political unity. On all other social issues, the liberals have the upper hand. It is under the BJP that gay relations were legalised.
India’s division is not just at the elite level, either. In recent days, we’ve seen major states like Haryana implement insane policies like 75% reservation of private jobs for locals, making a mockery of federalism and striking a big blow for effieciency. If you were investing in India, what would its 1.4 billion people be good for if you’re only limited to the workforce in the state you’re investing in? Haryana isn’t alone in this recent trend.
While the BJP is strong on the national level, if you look at state governments their dominance is not as overwhelming. They are either forced into much shakier coalitions (latest in Bihar) or frozen out in states like Rajasthan, which are natural BJP territory in national elections. Much of Indian policy is done at the state-level, such as critical education and health.
India’s human capital is suppressed by huge underinvestment in both health and education, which has its roots in caste structures. It is not a coincidence that India invested heavily in higher education early on, because that would benefit its upper-caste elites’ progeny disproportionately. Even today, its spending on higher education as a proportion of total educational spending is much larger than China did in a comparable development phase.
India is the ultimate ‘systems, not just human capital’ example.
Ha ha, don’t make me laugh, from 11th century to 19th or 20th there was a state of Anglo-French rivalry and enmity, but French and Germans had quite peaceful relations before the Napoleonic wars.
https://socio13.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/medium_fachoda1.jpg
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https://www.archelaus-cards.com/store/archives/images/albion-34.gif
https://www.dafont.com/forum/attach/orig/6/3/639860.jpg
Associative mating is increasing among educated Indian young who are meeting in educational establishments ECT ECT. Call centres alone are said to be revolutionising marriage choices. The smart are dwindling numerically as they get smarter and more economically successful with every generation. All countries have that problem, but India has the caste issue exacerbating it. I think Indian leaders are going to become very discouraged seeing what China does, and the lower orders in India will be increasingly impatient with calls to sacrifice for the good of the country’s international standing. At the end of the day, China is a highly selected conformist totalitarian state with uniformity that termites would be proud of, and India a ramshackle democracy with variegated levels of ability.
Is your objection due to that particular racial mix, or rather to the individuals phenotype? Or perhaps both?
en.people.cn/mediafile/201109/06/F201109061340282221571172.jpg
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/–RwgzgbVgyk/VmVbXKKc_7I/AAAAAAAAGMo/h6MbpVovOP8/s1600/peru%2B-%2BPierina%2BWong.jpg
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https://serperuano.com/wp-content/gallery/miss-peru-tusan-24102013/img_0978.jpg
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https://serperuano.com/wp-content/gallery/miss-peru-tusan-24102013/img_0995.jpg
Is your objection due to that particular racial mix, or rather to the individuals phenotype? Or perhaps both?
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/–RwgzgbVgyk/VmVbXKKc_7I/AAAAAAAAGMo/h6MbpVovOP8/s1600/peru%2B-%2BPierina%2BWong.jpg
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https://serperuano.com/wp-content/gallery/miss-tusan-2011-07092011/P1180171.jpg
https://serperuano.com/wp-content/gallery/miss-peru-tusan-24102013/img_0978.jpg
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https://serperuano.com/wp-content/gallery/miss-peru-tusan-24102013/img_0995.jpg
Modi should implement a two child policy, as this will really halt dysgenic fertility trends.
https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/FoodTrade_Wilson.jpg
China’s trade pattern in agricultural commodities follows its comparative advantage: it tends to import land-intensive commodities (soybeans, cotton, barley, rubber, and oils made from soybeans and palm kernels), and it exports labor-intensive commodities (fish, fruits, vegetables, and processed agricultural goods).
By my theory, dialects should be encouraged, and taught in schools, as a kind of firewall for poz, or as an inhibitory mechanism to prevent too many excitatory neurons (liberal people) from spreading and amplifying the poz signal, once it is picked up.
Foreign-born population does not have to mean non-Asian — or even non-ethnic Chinese, there are currently ~300000 South Korean nationals in Mainland China, making them the biggest single foreign-born group, probably another 300k of them are repats/anchor babies.
Many of them are anchor babies, the government forces everyone with dual nationality to renounce one citizenship by threatening to deny entry, since Chinese passport is basically shit and Chinese citizenship is easy to restore, nobody (maybe except the SE Asians) will keep the Chinese one, besides, they usually don’t wait until the said person becomes legally capable to renounce the other citizenship, they prefer parents to do the decision.
I know this because it happened to me personally.
I like how the picture for “edible chicken” is chicken feet, which I believe one can buy in a bag, like potato chips, in China.
It always surprises me how many other nationalities besides Chinese also eat chickens feet (Phoenix talons).
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/47/66/7e/47667e9ef90fb0d214aa28142a60d2ba.jpg
They’re delicious.
The Holy Roman Empire is not Germany. The German Confederation did not exist until the 19th century. Ever since then, France has been trying to tear Germany apart, mostly with success. This includes after the fall of the Berlin Wall, when France was against German re-unification. No amount of historical Anglo-French hostility or use of French propaganda by you changes any of this.
Your imaginings of a new Rome(as if that would be desirable) without the presence of England is delusional.
You talk like a fucking idiot.
The alt right says alot of shit about Sweden. I doubt there are actually many “third worlders” there, as you call them.
Sweden is a relatively homogenous European country with a few pockets of migrant communities in the big cities.
Just look at the official stats. Sweden has about one million immigrants born in non-Western countries of which MENA+SSA makes up the majority. That’s just first generation immigrants and Sweden already has a non-significant population of third generation immigrants from those regions. Out of the 600k under the age of five 360k has two parents born in Sweden. That’s 40% having an immigrant parent (note that this doesn’t count those born to second generation immigrants). A significant portion of these are of western background but at this point the majority of children born to parents with immigrant background in Sweden should be of non-western descent.
Well that’s what the main trade issue between the US and China right now. China produces 20% of it’s own semiconductors and wants to boost that to at least 70% within the decade. The US wants to stifle China to keep it dependent on the US for semiconductors.
Btw – most countries import some type of food products.
Yes even in international rankings – people seem to not know how much fruit and vegetables are produced and exported from China. That said – China is starting to eat too much beef
But that is like 50% of the US economy. If all of those you mentioned tanked, we are fucked.
I think I need to look at AAA Chinese stocks. Time to diversify and have backups.
The Chinese are actually openly talking about this. Overwhelming majority oppose any kind of immigration, with a small minority ok with scientists only. And there is no woked or sjws or jews to hold the chinese back on this issue.
Unless something drastic happens, I don’t think the Chinese will fall into the same pitfall as the USA n EU on this issue.
If China really is the world’s biggest consumer market, this is a huge historic moment.