Counting Gays

Just discovered this 2016 poll (Dalia) on percentage of people identifying as LGBT in Europe.

Largely unsurprising.

As I keep insisting, there’s something with Poland. 2.5x as many LGBT amongst youth as in Hungary. I think my prediction that Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2028 might just turn out correct.

What did surprise me is that there are many more American LGBT (12.1%) than in Europe (5.6%). Some 15% of young Americans identify as LGBT, versus 8% of young Europeans. Very, very interesting figures. Much higher than in the Gallup polls.

Though there is a very fast rise in the Gallup figures, too:


U.S. Adults Identifying as LGBT, 2012-2017
Do you, personally, identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender?


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% % % % % %
% LGBT 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.5

Dalia suggests several reasons why its results are much higher than those of Gallup:

First, our survey is representative for ages 14-65, while Gallup’s is for ages 18 and over; and because young people are more likely to identify as LGBTQ, our overall number is higher. Second, the much larger sample size in Europe (11.282 respondents) means that the margin of error in the EU is smaller than in the US (1.052 respondents) : +/-1.1% in the EU and +/-3.2% in the U.S. Therefore, the amount of Americans who identify as LGBTQ could be anywhere from 8.9% to 15.3%. This could also explain why the US survey results are much larger than our European results. Third, our surveys are conducted privately through mobile phones, which gives respondents more anonymity than face-to-face surveys or telephone interviews (which Gallup used to conduct its survey). Lowering social pressures and increasing privacy in how surveys are conducted might lead respondents to being less guarded and more honest with the answers they provide.

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. What happened to Austria?

  2. There are a few distinct trends that come out from the Gallup data:

    1. The % increase of LGBT has been mostly driven by millennials
    2. Within this cohort, this % increase has been driven chiefly by women.

    This actually makes sense because it’s among especially fenale millenials, having sex with another woman has become socially acceptable especially as women are on average more “gender fluid” than men. See for example

  3. A bunch of muslims immigrated, and then they mostly never accepted the idea that homosexuality is normal

  4. From my observations living in Hungary and frequently visiting Poland, LGBT types are waaaaaay more visible in the latter. You have to generally work a bit to see gays, lesbians etc. in Budapest, but in Warsaw and Kraków, they’re everywhere, and they’re multiplying at a exponential rate. Moreover, you see gays in smaller Polish cities like Poznań, but in smaller Hungarian cities like Győr, gays are nonexistent. Even “conservative” cities in eastern Poland like Rzeszów now have gay pride parades.

    My theories on this:

    1. Poles are very cargo cultish and like imitating their benefactors. America is gay and proud and Poles love America, so now they’re becoming gay and proud. In contrast, Hungarians have a history of being insular, xenophobic, and defiant, a product of their linguistic and cultural isolation from their neighbors. See: the 1848 Revolution, the 1956 uprising (and subsequent “goulash communist” liberalizing under Kádár), Horthy’s defiance of Hitler during WWII, and the fact that Hungarians elected a nationalist-populist government long before any other Eastern European E.U. member. Hungarians are innately resistant to foreign trends, though I saw some of that resistance breaking down when I lived there (increasing number of women with tattoos etc.)
    2. A lot of “Polish” media is owned by foreigners, namely Germans, who promote poz. Most Hungarian media is owned by Hungarians, and Orbán and his allies have done a good job of running leftist media out of town. Outside of Budapest, foreign/leftist media is basically nonexistent because there’s less English fluency and little profit (since Hungarian cities outside of Budapest are glorified villages).

    3. Orbán has held more power over his tenure in Hungary than Kaczyński has in Poland; the former had a supermajority from 2010 to 2015 and again from 2018, the latter only has a simple majority. The Hungarian government is also more centralized than the Polish government: the Hungarian parliament is unicameral, the Polish one is bicameral; the Hungarian president is appointed by the legislature (which in practice means he’s a puppet of the ruling party), the Polish president is popularly elected and thus has a certain degree of independence. Ergo, Fidesz has an easier time combating poz than Law and Justice does. (Also helping in this regard is that Fidesz is a member of the EPP, the dominant grouping in the European Parliament, so Orbán’s antics have attracted less scrutiny than Law and Justice’s.)

    I’m a bit more bullish on Poland than Anatoly is, but not by much. My estimation is that Civic Platform will retake power by 2023 unless Law and Justice gets their act together. Poland is going through a culture war similar to the U.S. right now, with leftists and right-wingers at each others’ throats. I imagine the E.U. and State Department will throw in heavily with Civic Platform and the Polish left in the elections this year.

  5. Numbers seem too high for Britain.

    The promotion of sodomy has been increasing in virulence recently, bring back Section 28 until a cure is discovered.

  6. Not to turn this thread into a shit show, but there have been allegations on the pro conversion therapy side that the evidence effectiveness of conversion therapy has been deliberately downplayed by the psychological establisment, where liberals outnumber conservatives 20 to 1, otherwise, the claim is that conversion therapy is as effective as treatments for alcohol addiction or drug addiction.

  7. LBGT is the new Christianity .
    That is – if you go to University and don’t want to have sex, don’t even want to consider having sex, you adopt L or G or T and just avoid it without actually getting into any scene. It is not a form of sex, it is a form of abstinence. And with modern pressures on kids to fit a pattern, this protection need starts earlier.

    In my day people just announced they were Christian and wore a cross, and got left alone.

    Well that is my theory. (Of course the actual questions Dalia asked might affect that too. Besides if the polling company is called Dahlia, you already know the answer.)

  8. What about the theory that male homosexuality is caused by a pathogen that is spread through child molestation?

  9. AquariusAnon says

    I don’t know if its true or not, but from multiple sources I heard not only is LGBT rising exponentially in Poland, but also there has been a spectacular exponential rise of permanent third world migrants since 2017, with the demographic situation currently reminiscent of say, Austria, in the 1980s.

    It seems that Filipinos and Indians are on the verge of becoming ethnic minorities in Poland. If that’s true, I’d also give it around 10 years, 20 years at the very tops, before Muslim no-go zones spring up and African gangs start peddling drugs and terrorizing Polish cities with gang crime.

  10. If you are a right when winger, how do you stop being in a perpetually depressed and angry state lol.

  11. i guess he meant why the fuck there are more old LGBTs there than young ones.

  12. I haven’t seen many non-whites in Poland. There are a few in Warsaw but that’s really it. There seem to be more of them in Hungary, bizarrely.

  13. There seem to be more of them in Hungary, bizarrely.

    Are they foreigners or just gypsies?

  14. The reason why Poland has more of these is because Poland has more big cities than Hungary. Poland is a decentralized country with several big cities and big cities are always gayish and decadent. The other simple reason is that this is just a one survey

  15. What about the theory that male homosexuality is caused by a pathogen that is spread through child molestation?

    What if it’s simply a behaviour? Not something you’re born with or catch, but a choice. Like drug “addiction” or gambling. A very bad choice for both the individual and society but still something deliberately chosen.

    Which would explain the explosion in numbers. It’s now a very fashionable choice, and it’s a choice that has been relentlessly pushed by the media and by the schools. The very high incidence of LGBTwhatever among Millennials merely reflects the fact that indoctrination works. Millennials want to be LGBT because it’s cool and it’s awesome.

    Male homosexuality can also be explained by an obsession with sex. No woman, not even the ones who proudly proclaim themselves the standard-bearers of Slut Culture, is going to put up with a man who wants sex with hundreds of different partners. Choosing male homosexuality means choosing unlimited sex. As society becomes increasingly sex-obsessed more men will choose this option, which explains the homosexual boom of the 70s.

  16. It’s not me, some other dude theorized it, Cochran?

  17. Exactly. Poland is four times the size of Hungary in population, and almost four
    times in area. They are comparing apples and oranges

    Poland has always been highly decentralized with many regional centers.

  18. It’s not me, some other dude theorized it, Cochran?

    Yes, I think it was Cochran.