Dysgenic Deutschland

The Flynn effect has reversed in terms of spatial IQ, according to a big recent meta-study by Jakob Pietschnig and Georg Gittler.

James Thompson has a good summary in Deutschland über alles, dann unter allen?

In the present meta-analysis, we show an inverse u-shaped trajectory of IQ test performance changes in a large number of samples (k = 96; N = 13,172) on a well known test for spatial perception (the three-dimensional cubes test, 3DC) in German-speaking countries over 38 years (1977–2014). Assessment of both item response theory-based measures as well as more standard measures of classical test theory showed initial increases and a subsequent decrease of performance when controlling for age, sample type (general population vs. mixed samples vs. university students) and sex. Our results suggest saturation and diminishing returns of IQ increasing factors (e.g., life history speed) whilst negative associations of IQ changes with psychometric g may have led to the observed IQ score decrease in more recent years.

Below is the version of the graph that has been corrected for age, sex, and sample time. The all time peak seems to have occured around the mid-1990s.


The PISA tests have indicated that (ethnic) Germans might have some of the highest IQs in Europe. This is credible in light of their historical intellectual accomplishments in the 19th century through to the 1930s, even though Germans were typically shorter (i.e. probably less well fed) and certainly poorer per capita than the British. The Finns are brighter on average, but have a small standard deviation, hence much fewer geniuses.

However, I suspect that since the 1920s and certainly since the 1970s German fertility has become strongly dysgenic. This has started outrunning the benefits from better nutrition (essentially maxed out by the 1970s) and more intensive schooling. Furthermore, they have been brought down by immigrants, to the extent that in 2012 Germany as a whole was overtaken by Poland in the PISA tests.

Further from Pietschnig & Gittler:

Results from our linear regression analyses suggest decreases of about 4.8 IQ points per decade when controlling for age, sample type, and sex, thus indicating a substantial negative Flynn effect that is even stronger compared to previously observed positive trends (e.g., Flynn, 1984, 1987; Pietschnig & Voracek, 2015). This trend was observed in linear regression analyses, but our results showed that the present changes over time may be even better described as a curvilinear function, thus indicating initial increases, followed by stagnation (with performance peaking around the mid-1990s), and subsequent decreases of task performance.

Incidentally, this is one of the factors you have to bear in mind when looking at historical “human accomplishment” (in science, literature, art, etc) and the puzzle of why East Asians don’t figure largely in it for all their high IQs. Not only were the key countries – UK, Germany, etc – well ahead of the likes of China and Japan in terms of nutrition (related to IQ) and general development (schooling, funding for science) but they also enjoyed a bonus from not yet having fallen on the dysgenic slope. I suspect this will likely remove any need for Jaymannian “clannishness” as a key explanatory factor.

But I digress; this is for another post.

Back to Germany – if you are in the throes of dysgenic decline, you might want to try to at least do some obvious things to slow it down, like not take in millions of 85 IQ Third World immigrants. Obviously this is not happening but I found it curious that the great scientist Heiner Rindermann has been given column space to call for exactly that in the German magazine Focus.

In it, he makes some of the following points:

  • Unlike the case of the Huguenots, whom the Elector Friedrich Wilhelm welcomed to Prussia in 1685, the wave of immigrants in the past years and months are lacking in human capital.
  • They perform at ~110 points below US and German standards in the PISA tests, or a difference of three years in terms of schooling age. The gap with Africa is more like four and a half years.
  • Even “elite” students like engineering students from the Gulf states are two to four years behind their German counterparts.
  • A recent study in Chemnitz, the city that hosts Rindermann’s university, showed that asylum seekers with university degrees had an average IQ of 93 – that is equivalent to that of Realschule students, i.e. prole children.
  • He mentions that this gap is not closed in the second generation, and even dares to mention cousin marriage as a contributory factor.
  • These groups will have higher unemployment, and their cognitive errors in daily life such as in traffic or professional decisions will negatively impact other people.
  • HE ACTUALLY GOES THERE and mentions the high incidence of violence against dissenters and sexual assaults in places where they congregate, such as immigrant neighborhoods and the refugee camps. He also mentions the statistic that whereas only 12% of the French population are Muslim they constitute 60% of the prison population, and alludes to the Rotherham mass rapes in Britain.
  • Diversity is associated with more crime and inequality, contrary to the positive rhetoric around it.

Furthermore, the comments to his article are generally positive.

Given the current climate, in which Angela Merkel openly demands that Mark Zuckerberg censor “hate” against immigrants on Facebook and the New York Times approving quotes a former East German apparatchik openly commiserating that anti-immigration activists from a village getting swamped by Third World immigrants are not getting arrested, I will admit to some degree of surprise that Rindermann was allowed his not very PC say. I hope he doesn’t get into trouble on account of this.

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Finland#Teachers
    They have the most effective education system in the world, and I would hesitate to say they are smarter than Germans on average without more evidence. Assessment of Auditory and Visual Reaction Time in Healthy Obese Individuals Over-nutrition may be part of it, and I believe 40% (and rising) of German women with advanced degrees have no children.

    Merkel says these are refugees she is letting in and Germany is doing no more and no less than it is morally and legally obliged to do. From the point of view of a Germany that is now never going to be involved in another war (being protected on all sides by fellow members of NATO) what disadvantages there are in being a less efficient country are outweighed by the benefits for the elite who will be doing better and not suffering the consequences. At a deeply felt level the indigenous German leadership are still traumatised by WW2, and determined to make any kind of national self assertion impossible. Hence the anti-nuclear power policy (terror of anything associated with war) and dread of restive masses. The large Pegida marches at the beginning of the year seem to have brought about a fundamental reassessment on the part of the German political establishment, which decided on their own version of the Dragonnades to demoralise the population and stamp out any movement towards dissent. Business elites are happy with the immigrants influx, but there is real support for these policies in the German population I think. The German Green party, (the anti-nuclear party) must be accounted an authentic and strong strand of German grassroots opinion.

    Paul Gottfried in his ‘Becoming Who We Are’

    Jurgen Trittin, who now heads the German Green Party, is already ecstatic that his country is being overwhelmed by Asian Muslim migrants: “Each day Germany is disappearing more and more; and this is a truly wonderful thing!” exults Trittin, [YouTube] who heads one of the largest parties in the country that he hopes will soon vanish

    Because the refugees will be taught with the more advanced for their age German children, who will be younger, little German girls will be molested of course, but the Green Party are quite keen on that

  2. I thought I had a long comment here, but it disappeared. Something I mentioned about an outspokenly pro immigration German Green party leader might have been picked up by a filter, I though it was relevant and there was a linked impeccable news source for it.

  3. Erik Sieven says

    thanks for the link of this Focus article. I have actually stopped to consume to much mainstream media. This means I still read the most important newspapers to know what is going on, but this great piece of common sense would have stayed under my radar otherwise.

  4. Erik Sieven says

    actually Trittin has not said that. This quote has been posted in the german right wing internet sphere for years, but recently it was found out that it is wrong. This is of course a irrelevant detail. Also I think Trittin does not fight against his misquote because he is a patriot who would never say something like that but rather because he enjoys to falsify rightists once

  5. German_reader says

    I think that quote from Trittin is actually an invention, there’s a stock of fake quotations from Green politicians like Trittin, Fischer and Cohn-Bendit floating around in the Internet. One shouldn’t use them because one only harms one’s own credibility. Of course there’s no question however that the Greens actually hold those sentiments, they really do want to abolish Germany.

  6. German_reader says

    “I hope he doesn’t get into trouble on account of this.”

    I don’t think so but who knows? I would never have thought something along the lines of the last two months possible. Germany is f**ked, and depressingly polls show that the vast majority would still vote for the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Greens etc. It really is a society of stupid, conformist sheep.

  7. Dutton’s theory about low standard deviation is quite riddled with holes. PISA 2012 maths result standard deviation for instance has been measured for all European participants, and in Finland separately for Swedish-speaking schools. It’s 80 among Finland-Swedes and 86 among Finns but also 82 for Danes and 85 for Irish. All below the OECD average as well as Swedish and Norwegian averages – regional pattern is weak. Meanwhile Japan is at OECD average, and Singapore and Taiwan well above it.

    Nobel prizes don’t provide statistically significant sample sizes and probably aren’t the best way to approach the matter of genetics-based IQ. Japan has won eleven of its sixteen hard science nobels after year 1999, obviously population changes were a non-factor in that.

  8. Correction to my previous post, 16 out of 21 Japanese hard science laureates are post-1999. No “soft” prizes at all since 2nd millennium.

  9. The findings come rather surprizing to me and I am always sceptical of using these low N studies to make out trends.

    Using fertility by education data from the Wittgenstein database, my estimate for the intrinsic IQ loss over the next generation is 1.0. That of course doesn’t take migration into account and only incorporates differences in fertility rates by education classes. Contrary to the past, these fertility rates don’t differ that much anymore. University educated women in Germany have a TFR of 1.3, vs. 1.45 for medium educated women and 1.6 for the least educated.

    Fertility driven IQ losses per generation for other countries:

    Belgium and Finland: 0 (the best scoring countries in the world, no dysgenic fertility here, rest of Scandinavia not far behind)

    Canada: -0.4
    Indonesia: -0.6 (best scoring developing country)
    Japan: -0.8
    UK: -1.0
    Germany: -1.0
    Italy: -1.2
    China: -1.3
    France: -1.3 (France has a very fertile underclass compared to the UK or Germany)
    South Korea: -1.4
    Singapore: -1.4 (the only country openly following eugenic fertility policies, with dismal results it seems)
    Australia: -1.6
    USA: -1.7
    Russia: -1.8
    Poland: -2.2
    Romania: -2.9 (worst scoring European country, everyone knows why)
    India: -3.2
    Mexico: -3.3
    Nigeria: -3.4
    Iran: -3.6
    Turkey: -3.6
    Brazil: -3.9 (worst scoring major country, educated women in Brazil have extremely few children (1.2 on average))
    Afghanistan: -5.1 (worst scoring country on earth)

  10. The Finns are brighter on average, but have a small standard deviation, hence much fewer geniuses.

    The Finns were completely rural until quite recently. When an upper class appeared among them, it was Swedish. Germany developed a distinct upper class of its own in the Dark Ages and a distinct middle class of its own (which competed with Jews) in the late Middle Ages. It’s possible that selection for smarts is stronger among the aristocracy and the bourgeoisie than among farmers. Some portion of modern Germans are descended from the upper and middle class Germans of the past.

  11. The upper class immediately after the conquest of Finnish tribes was likely fully Swedish, but there was a constant absorbtion of Finns to it (but not vice versa) until late 1800’s when political situation was advantageous for the opposite. Modern Finland-Swedes are quite heavily mixed in their roots – Finnish and Swedish mainly, but in cities a drop of German, Polish, Scottish etc. is not uncommon – and things such as their PISA results (and standard deviation of said results) are similar to those of Finnish speakers.

  12. HERE is that link of Tritten on Youtube. I thought Gottfried had that link because he was citing linked video for the quote.

    There is no argument that Tritten was an author of a pro-paedophilia pamphlet, and in the Green Party there was open pro-pedophilia activism into the 1980s, He is now leader of the Green Party, which is has got its main policies (anti nuclear power) accepted. Mekel performed a U-turn on nuclear power just like she performed a U-turn on refugee mass immigration. Remember http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-makes-palestinian-girl-facing-deportation-from-germany-cry-on-television-10393719.html

    I believe to ‘Merkel’ in German means moving ultra cautiously, I think Merkel is going along with a consensus in the German establishment that now they are safe within a cocoon of Nato members, they must remove any kind of basis for popular self assertion or a nationalist turn by the masses. So the country is getting rid of nuclear technology (and any potential for atomic weapons) and the homogeneity of ethno Germans (a potential basis for a nationalist movement) is to be crushed by unending immigration of refugees, with as Merkel says the right to asylum having no upper limit. The unspeakable depravities inflicted on children of Huguenots during the Dragonades were intended, the French Senegalese and North Africans (rapists of blond boys according to Otto John) in the Rhineland were a measure against an enemy, and I think the immigration decision is a sign that the German elite see the population as the enemy to be defeated now. The ethno Germans are not needed to fight for the state against the Soviets so they become the threat to the state that has to be dealt with.

    There was mention of the enthusiastic anti national pro EU federalist Cohn-Bendit (who told the Czech president he was not interested in his opinion, and called Orban a dictator) as having false quotes used against him. Well he can’t claim to have been misquoted about the worst things of all, because he wrote a 1975 book in which he talked about how he had sex with five year old children while working in a kindergarten. In a 1978 edition of Pflasterstrand, an alternative magazine Cohn-Bendit edited, he described being “seduced” by a 6-year-old girl as one of the most beautiful experiences he ever had. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Cohn-Bendit#On_paedophilia

  13. Pseudonymic Handle says

    Anyone knows a good, free, non-verbal, online IQ test?

  14. Why does the PISA scores indicate Germans having higher IQ’s than the European average when most IQ tests show Germans to be just around 100 and no different to the British and other nearby populations? The same applies to the Finns too, because every IQ study I’ve seen on them has shown their IQs to also be 100.

    I don’t think predicting IQ’s based on PISA scores is a good idea when there are differences in how the education system is structured from country to country. The German and Finnish educational model just seems more efficient to what they have in place in the UK, France and other countries.

    For what it’s worth though, one country that I think has had significant dysgenics taking place is Italy. It was once the centre of European achievement and now look at it. It’s not a totally bad country, but their number of Nobel Prizes is very low compared to other European countries, and 4 of their 20 Nobel Prizes come from their small Sephardic Jewish community.

  15. theo the kraut says

    I just posted this at Paul’s site, too:

    “Each day Germany is disappearing more and more;
    and this is a truly wonderful thing!” exults Trittin, [YouTube]

    German speaker here–Trittin certainly thinks so, as do all his cronies, but he never said so, at least not publicly. That he did is widely circulated in German blogs, too, but there’s never any proof. I forced myself to listen to the linked youtube video: 4m of corrupt, mendacious blather, but nothing that could even be remotely interpreted that way. He’s a swine, but smart, he’s not likely to ever let his guard down. alt-right bloggers need to beware of false positives…

  16. Let his guard down! It is astounding to me that Tritten is Green party leader though he signed off on a pamphlet demanding the legalisation of sex with children, while former Green party stalwart Cohn-Bendit repeatedly said he had actually had sex with children. If you look at the policies Germany has done a U-turn on (Nuclear power, mass immigration ) they are Green party policies that the ruling party has adopted.

  17. German Voice of Reason says

    Rindermann has given a interview on IQ (including group differences) in german public radio on few years ago (they published under the title “stupid bushmen, smart asians?” at first). Some researchers from a department for ethnology and african studies made a press release denouncing him with the usual vocabulary (‘racist’, ‘pseudoscience’). It got a bit of attention on left-leaning publications and the radio station was pressured as well. Then the german psychology association (DGPs) and another psychologist defended him and the story died.

    A few years later, this Rindermann column, which is less cautious, got almost no media attention.

    Is this a sign of progress? Or is controversy better?

    Interview: http://www.deutschlandradiokultur.de/gibt-es-unterschiede-in-intelligenz-und-wissen-zwischen-den.954.de.html?dram:article_id=143095

    Interview with another psychologist: http://www.deutschlandradiokultur.de/das-ist-wissenschaftlich-einwandfrei.954.de.html?dram:article_id=143119

    One of the statements by DGPs: http://www.dgps.de/_download/2009/Stellungnahme_Rindermann_Feb09.pdf

  18. theo the kraut says

    I forgot about that. it was long ago when they didn’t yet belong to the establishment. they both will still be pervs kidswise in all likelihood, but you could get away with that then (you just could, don’t blame the messenger), while you can’t now. they’re smarter now, and they made a career in the meantime. they explained away their earlier sins or pooh-poohed it off, the press and tutti quanti would go along.

  19. I don’t think Tritten is a pervert, more likely he was one of those who think German society has been wrong about everything and hence the reverse of traditional mores must be right and moral. There are apparently lot of people who think like that in Germany and not just in the Green party, it seems to be a thing of educated young women this anti-nuclear and pro immigration politics. Hitler was a throwback to the warlike, patriarchal societies of Indo Europeans who worshiped male gods. We now get the opposite: Merkel; presiding over a peace loving goddess-worshiping, matriarchal society of unqualified acceptance.

    I believe it has something to do with trauma of WW2, and the absence of external threat, the German leadership don’t need the population to fight as Germany has only Nato countries on its borders now. The only threat to the state the German elite run is internal. Merkel and the German establishment don’t trust their own people to live peacefully in a state where they are an indigenous ethnic minority, and potential power base for a nationalist force.

  20. There is no such thing as a “Green Patriot”.

    While I neither live in Germany nor know Trittin, what I know about the German Greens AND Trittin is that they are all feckless, cowardly traitors and such quotes are not beyond either Trittin or any other Greens.

    And that one is not the only traitorous and hateful quote attribute to Trittin.

    My impression is that “Erik Sieven” lies when he states the quote “was recently found out wrong”, like all SJWs or “Gutmenschen” do to cover up their lack of argumentative substance.

    So much for “German right wing”.

  21. Erik Sieven says

    maybe you can use the google translator to check it http://www.sezession.de/52085/ein-widerruf.html

  22. A Turkish Kurdish guy from the Syrian border just won a Nobel prize in the sciences.

  23. He’s an Arab. I hope you are not the same anonymous I already corrected at Steve Sailer’s on this point.

  24. Anatoly Karlin says

    Why does the PISA scores indicate Germans having higher IQ’s than the European average when most IQ tests show Germans to be just around 100 and no different to the British and other nearby populations?

    Migrants pull down Germans more than the French or Brits. Native Germans score significantly higher on PISA than native French or Brits.