Based Erdogan Makes the Point for Us


… far better than we ever could.

Anyhow, how fast is the Muslim population growing? It’s long been clear that official statistics aren’t quite hacking it, and the situation is likely considerably worse.

Recent observation from Emil Kirkegaard gleaned from his meanderings through demographic statistics:

So, what’s next? There’s a lot to do, but one thing I’ve been thinking of is showing that Muslim populations are actually growing a lot faster than many claim. The reason they claim these low levels of growth is because they rely on official statistics and these data tend to convert 2nd and later generation people into the ‘native’ categories, thus effectively hiding them. However, Muslims are nice enough to use distinctive names, so one can count the number of persons with such names over time and this will show a more realistic growth rate. Preliminary results for Denmark indicate an official stats-based growth rate of 2.5%, whereas first names indicate 5.1%. That’s not a small difference. The growth rate of Danish natives is something like -16% per generation which comes out at about -0.5% per year. You don’t have to be a genius to see how 5.1% vs. -0.5% work out in a few decades.

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. This is not as easy to track because there are converts to think about. Both into and out of Islam. Turks that leave Islam in Germany (and there are some) keep their original names.

    Likewise, the Germans that convert into Islam also keep their legal names (sure, among other community members they might use names like Yusuf and Abdul-Malik):
    “In turn, converts try to disassociate themselves from migrants of Muslim-majority countries and promote a denationalized Islam untainted by Turkish or Arab traditions.” (Being German, Becoming Muslim:
    Race, Religion, and Conversion in the New Europe)

    The problem with giving Islam so much attention is that, well…give something wall to wall coverage and people get curious:
    “Moreover, Islam has become a perennial theme in the media thanks to today’s frequent debates on Muslims. ‘Islam is more visible as a genuine alternative,’ Wohlrab-Sahr says….Lühr, who always carries a prayer mat in the trunk of his Alfa Romeo GT, laments the ‘decline in values’ that Western society, in his view, has suffered: ‘In Islam, values still count for something,’ he says….Thirty-six-year-old Nils Bergner prays to Allah five times a day. The German convert works together with a Turkish friend Ali Özkan, also a Muslim. The two visit the mosque together, but it’s only in the German’s office that the prayer rug is regularly rolled out. ‘I just can’t manage it,” says Özkan. “The first prayer is at 6:00 a.m. — much too early.” (LOL! The German gets up for Fajr and the Turk can’t manage it!)

    Ultimately, Europeans are going to have to come to terms with their sons and daughters who have become Muslim before all the dust settles – especially if they aren’t promoting Turkishness or Arabness.

    If one only wants to look at Islam as an ethnic phenomenon, it might be easier to track, but honestly it is silly to do so. I’m visiting my parents and in their local mosque a young man in his late twenties just took the shahadah. His last name is about as German as you can get (Fritz) and he looks like something out of a Nazi propaganda poster.

    Now people on forums might come up with inane comments about how they think Islam is foolish, and how can a German believe, political cult, etc. That’s well and good, but that’s irrelevant – as Imam Ghazali (ra) stated; simply claiming something doesn’t make sense to oneself is not an argument (I mean, other than for oneself), it may well be that an idea/premise is sound and that the observer is simply unable to understand it.

    Increasing ethnic Germans who find coherence in it will have to be part of the equation for an authentic picture of the current issue.


  2. German_reader says

    I can’t link to any detailed data (don’t know where to find it), but I’ve read that on current trends Germany will have about 7 million Muslims by 2030. Probably this includes people only nominally Muslim or members of “heretical” sects like Alevis or the Ahmadyya…but a clear majority will probably be Sunni Muslims anyway.
    Needless to say that prospect absolutely horrifies me. Only slight hope I have is that East Germany will be less affected…maybe eventually the country will be partitioned again.

  3. German_reader says

    That’s wishful thinking on your part. Certainly there are quite a few of the typical cases…German women marrying Turkish or Arab men and then converting to Islam. Also maybe the occasional Christian who starts thinking the Trinity doesn’t make any sense and converts to Islam out of a desire for pure monotheism, the sort of individual choice that can always happen. But there’s nothing to indicate many Germans find Islam attractive. On the contrary, I expect anti-Islamic feeling to continually increase in severity as Muslim influence and demands grow. It will sharpen people’s identity as Germans/Westerners. What consequences this will have on a spiritual level, no one knows. Given how Islamophile they are, the Christian churches probably won’t profit…unless traditionalism makes a comeback. Maybe more people will become hardcore materialists. Or turn to the old, pre-Christian gods. Or to Eastern religions and traditions. But I’m confident German converts to Islam will never be more than a fringe phenomenon (though you’re of course free to believe and hope differently).

  4. Greasy William says

    Don’t know if I buy it. Muslims aren’t having kids in their own countries but they suddenly start popping out kids once they move to the West?

    What’s the end game here anyway? Even if there ended up being a civil war in Western Europe, there is nowhere to send the Muslims to. The Muslim countries can’t even feed their own people, let alone 10s of millions of refugees.

    The only example we have from history of a similar situation would be from the Lebanon civil war. When the Christians realized the Muslims were going to democratically take over the country due to the superior Islamic birth rate, that was the end of the power sharing. The Muslims ended up winning the war and today Lebanon is a Muslim country.

    But 21st century French, Dutch and Germans aren’t even at the level of Lebanese Christians, they will just roll over for their Muslim conquerors.

    It might be for the best. Islam is our best chance of destroying diversity, feminism and gay-pride.

  5. Greasy William says

    On the contrary, I expect anti-Islamic feeling to continually increase in severity as Muslim influence and demands grow.

    There is a huge difference between disliking Muslims the group, and disliking Islam the faith. Pretty much nobody likes Muslims as a group but the Islamic faith appeals to a lot of people of all different cultures.

    For some reason north east Asian and Latin American cultures seem to really hate Islam, however.

  6. The Muslims ended up winning the war and today Lebanon is a Muslim country.

    I pointed this out in the comments recently. The Great Powers created Lebanon and Israel.
    The “Lebanese” could not hold it in the road and now Israel or Syria or Hezbollah or whoever, treats Lebanon like a red-headed stepchild whenever they feel like it. Israel on the other hand, took what was given, built upon it and even added to it, and is the preemminent power in the region today. Nothing suceeds like success.

  7. anony-mouse says

    Er, are Turks even at replacement level — in Turkey?

    Including Kurds who have a higher TFR than ethnic Turks, Turkey is just at replacement level

    The future may be more like this:


    For a place called Cologne, its doing to be awfully smelly

  8. cucksworth says

    I know its way too late to ask this question, but what is it about slowly shrinking population that is bad? Ok the pension math will change, but ultimately, the world population should decrease for sustainability reasons.

    Globalists are spurring a population boom in Nigeria and other places that will be an environmental disaster

  9. Hey GR,

    That’s wishful thinking on your part.

    Possibly – or simply faith and hope. Hope and optimism in the future is a big deal – much of this derives from faith. Those that do or do not have hope tend towards different demographic directions; having children (at least in the West where there is birth control) is a vote for hope. That philosophy which provides more hope and meaning seems to survive – you can reference early Christianity versus the Roman Empire.

    But there’s nothing to indicate many Germans find Islam attractive.

    No, not many – definitely it’s in the margins. Germans tend not to gravitate towards any faith at this point. And they will likely be put off by Turkish or Arab Islam – as was Goethe, but he had some excellent words to say about Islam itself and the writings of Persian Sufis.

    On the contrary, I expect anti-Islamic feeling to continually increase in severity as Muslim influence and demands grow.


    But I’m confident German converts to Islam will never be more than a fringe phenomenon

    I honestly don’t know which way German history will play out. But I’ve studied Muslim history from its East to its West and there are certainly patterns. The island of Java was once the stronghold of the Majapahit Empire…and then the Wali Songo arrived. It always seems to start as a fringe phenomenon.


  10. Pumblechook says

    Although as a whole European nations are under replacement level, the more patriotically-minded and religious types are either at replacement level or growing. Example of Austria below (Islamic are mostly Turks plus some Bosnian slavic Muslims). And this is taking into account even the ‘nominal’ Catholics (it is the country’s majority religion) who bring TFR below 2:

    2001: Roman Catholic – 1.52; Protestant – 1.21; Islam – 2.23 Other religions – 1.44; Nonreligious – 1.34

    2015: Roman Catholic – 1.74; Protestant – 1.53; Islam – 1.47 Other religions – 1.31; Nonreligious – 1.16

    On a personal level, my core personal network of friends and family (approxx. 100-150 people) are mostly traditionalist-patriotic types (military, state police, local businessmen etc.) who might as well be living in a parallel world to the bizarro feminist-Islamist narrative offered up to us by the media/government etc. as a replacement for our ancient culture and customs.

    I worked out that our TFR as a ‘group’ stands at 3.1. It is us and the tens of millions like us across Europe who will maintain the spine and body of this continent and we will never ever admit defeat. Like the Arabs with Israel, things may take time to solve but we are patient people.