European Native vs. Immigrant Fertility Rates

I keep citing Twitter demographer @Cicerone1973.

I don’t know if he is a professional analyst, but his own projections of Russian TFR and LE usually match mine to the decimal point, so I am sure that he knows what he’s doing. And what I try to do for Russia he does for most of the countries with usable statistics.

Anyhow, here is his latest: “Fertility rate by country of birth of the mother in the EU. The overall TFR in a country often hides big differences between natives and migrants. TFRs in Belgium and France would be almost 0.2 children lower without the presence of migrants.

For the EU (incl EFTA), it was 1.59 in total, 1.51 (79,3%) for Natives living in their own country , 1.58 (5.8%) for EU citizens living in another EU country than their’s of birth, and 2.26 (14.7%) for non-EU borns.

During the same year (2017):

Russian TFR was at 1.62 children per woman. I think migrants would make basically no difference, but ethnic Russian TFR would be at around 1.54 children per woman.

US TFR was at 1.76 children per woman in 2017, and 1.67 children per woman amongst whites.

We see a rather interesting development in which the native TFR’s of pretty much everyone in the Greater European world is converging to around the 1.40-1.70 children per woman range (a result of the cultural homogenization I have talked about?).

The main exception is the Med, which forms a distinct cluster, with natives having just 1.25-1.30 children per woman in the four PIGS nations. I imagine this must be largely accounted for by the large drain of young people northwards.

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. songbird says

    I am quite skeptical of the idea of full convergence, since there are too many unlisted variables, like religiosity and faith, or sub-Saharan vs. non-Subsaharan. Small differences compound, and the growing diversity which is accomplished through immigration most likely has a growing negative effect on European TFR.

  2. Alexander Turok says

    I presume the error bars for some of the immigrant numbers should be high, look at the implausibly high number for the “EU-born” in Croatia. The French numbers are interesting, implying France isn’t that great an outlier relative to other West European countries when only natives are considered, but is an outlier in the high fertility of its immigrant population. For instance, its native fertility rate is barely greater than Britain’s(1.70 vs 1.68), and the non-EU immigrant share of births isn’t dramatically higher,(20.6 vs 16.8) but the fertility rate among non-EU immigrants is significantly higher.(3.33 vs 2.13)

  3. Anuxicus says

    Russia is a developing country much like Nigeria and Pakistan – So I am suprised that it’s fertility rate is not alot higher.

  4. Erik Sieven says

    Only looking at the country of birth of mothers does not cover the full image of course. First, we are now in the third generation of mass migration to Europe. So “born in the country” does not equal “native” anymore – at last in the way it is commonly understood. Second a significant share of actually native women does have their children with non-native fathers, most notably with West African ancestry. One could argue this doesn’t make any difference, which is true to some extent. Yet to measure true “native TFR” one should take it into account. However, as far as I know data to handle these problems does not exist.

  5. LondonBob says

    These numbers need to broken down even more, the native category does not mean what it does to us.

    That said I see a lot of indigenous couples having the usual two children, include those who do not marry and you see where the 1.6 comes from.

  6. Anonymous says

    Of course, if we wish to use that designation ‘non EU born’ as a proxy for ‘non white’, you are seriously in error, since it is certain that a majority of the enormous black/brown population in western Europe are, in fact, ‘EU born’.

    Therefore, to get a good fix on the browning of western Europe, multiply that ‘non EU born category’ by two. And even that’s an enormous understimate.

    In short, western Europe is fucked.

  7. Anonymous says

    I don’t think I have seen or read about anything like the “Decline of Europe” that we are witnessing. I was born in 1945 in Chicago after our family left Germany and immigrated to U.S. in 1938.
    I am pretty sure that 1930s Germany would have been much better than what 2030s Germany would be like.
    Second World War and post war propaganda has made Europeans the most Guilt Ridden ethnic group in the world.
    Opposing mass migration is equivalent of commitng a crime.

    Anyway, I live in Bavaria nowadays and it is still a very European part of Deutschland.
    I am married and have four kids, All born between 1970 and 1980.
    My grandfather passed away last year. He served in the SS and was posted in Denmark.
    He lived a great life and even on his deathbed, his last words were “THE WRONG SIDE WON THE WAR”.
    Future of Europe is very very heart-rending and I am not sure what is in store for Europeans.
    I am 74 and lived a life of Hipsterdom with girls, party and Rock and Roll in the 60s. L.A. county used to be much less crowded back then.

    It’s Strange death of Europe and the West

  8. Paul Yarbles says

    My grandfather passed away last year. … I am 74 …

    You were 72-74 years old when your grandfather passed away. How old was he when he died?

  9. Another German Reader says

    #1: I’ll think it doesn’t matter to separate the different European ethnicities. But more to look on the European v non-European. But that still leaves people of mixed heritage out.

    #2: It’s maybe more accurate to take a look at school-class pictures.

    I remember two years ago on some blog, where pictures of schoolchildren throughout the years from two different British schools. (If I remember correctly Birmingham.) The public one was already nearly 40% non-European and 10/15% mixed (Mulatto, Mediterrean etc.). The private school was around 15% non-European and 10/15% mixed.

    Just like in many discussions/topics not only this site but elsewhere, the demographics momentum can only be slowed down, IN CASE of a truly ethno-nationalist/pro-European government. But this requires strong constitutional changes (I’m not saying going full Hitler.)

    But in 15 years the Coalition of Diversity will be a blocking minority-voter-block. Together with leftist-liberal Europeans they might even gather enough votes to gain local/regional or even national majorities.

    This will be point when unfunded welfare-system, climate-change, technological-labor change, much stronger E/SE-Asian competition, will probably reduce Europe/America’s ability to fix the house.

    Nationalist forces only the 2020s to steer the boat (not around) into calmer waters.

    After that there are only two options: Latin-America or Civil War-clusterfuck.

  10. truthman says

    Any idea about what the breakdown of non-EU births in Germany by area is? How many Turkish, Russian, Ukrainian,Syrian etc

  11. Toronto Russian says

    It is the Med that forms a distinct and remarkably thick cluster, with natives having just 1.25-1.30 children per woman in the four PIGS nations.

    The nations with a recent history of large, traditional families often living in poverty.

    The most memorable scene from Rocco and His Brothers is when it snows in Milan and the characters (South Italian gastarbeiters) rush out to the streets to get jobs as snow shovelers.

    A 13-year-old war bride from the Spanish civil war starts having kids with her English Cockney husband and, well, never stops. True story.

    …I can’t help thinking they were just too tired of that and the young generation said “No thanks” as soon as they could. A usual theme in stories of big families is their grownup kids’ reluctance to repeat the experience.

  12. There are a number of French women who were maybe born in Algeria or other colonies.
    There are also women from Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Germans from Kazakhstan…they are all in non-EU category.
    Also there are people from non-EU Balkan countries.
    It’s bad I know but still.

  13. UrbaneFrancoOntarian says

    Glad you have 4 kids… but how many kids do they have?

  14. Those French women born in Algeria are now well beyond their fertile age. Most of them came in the early 1960s.

    You do have a point about Germans from KAzakhstan. But for Germany, I used the citizenship of the mother because firstly data was not available by country of births and secondly to keep them out of the non-EU category. Ethnic German migrants from Eastern Europe received German citizenship almost immediately after they arrived in Germany.