Global Baby Bust, 2020

Shows zero signs of letting up, according to Twitter demographer Cicerone: “Birth data for the first months of 2020: Slight recovery or flatline in Western Europe, Easternmost Europe continues its sharp decline, Hungary stronk, South Korea ever more doomed.”

My observations:

  1. Uzbekistan now has as many births as France & 50% of Russia’s.
  2. South Korea TFR at 0.83 – absolute international record low?
  3. Israel has almost as many births as Taiwan, despite population differential.

Also Cicerone has numbers by race in the US:

2019 estimates for fertility rates by population group in the US (2018 in brackets):

Whites 1.61 (1.64 children per woman)
Blacks 1.77 (1.79)
Hispanics 1.93 (1.96)
Asians 1.49 (1.54)

US average: 1.71 (1.73)

All values are the lowest ever recorded.

These may all well be long-term shifts, as argued in a recent paper by the demographer who invented the concept of the second demographic transition.

Lesthaeghe, Ron. 2020. “The Second Demographic Transition, 1986–2020: Sub-Replacement Fertility and Rising Cohabitation—a Global Update.Genus 76 (1): 10.

The article considers the evolution of two “Second Demographic Tradition” (SDT) core characteristics: fertility postponement and the rise of cohabitation, with particular attention being given to the first two decades of the new century. It can be considered as the sequel to the concise overview of the SDT published earlier in the US Proceedings of the National Academy (PNAS) (Lesthaeghe, 2014).

In the first section, three optimistic views concerning the evolution of fertility are considered: (i) rises due to the end of postponement, (ii) rises connected with advancing human development and (iii) rises associated with advancing gender equality. The focus in this section is mainly but not exclusively on the European experience and its large degree of variation in fertility patterns. It is argued that these three optimistic predictions of sustained fertility rises are mainly based on observations prior to 2010, with too much weight being given to four Nordic countries and too little to other Western European countries with very similar fertility levels. However, these expectations have been thwarted during the second decade, even in the presence of advances in human development and/or gender equality. Hence, the original SDT prediction of 1986 of sustained sub-replacement fertility still holds after 35 years. We expect this to continue during the third decade as well. Furthermore, single-factor explanations are not likely to do justice to far more intricate situations that are responsive to varying structural and ideational influences.

In the second section, the evolution of cohabitation is traced in Europe, the USA and Canada, the Latin American countries, three East Asian populations and selected sub-Saharan cases. At the onset, cohabitation can start either from a SDT basis among the better educated or among the poorer classes following a pattern of disadvantage (POD). It is argued that the feature of cohabitation spreads rapidly among all social classes and across all education groups and that in the process of increasing cohabitation, the POD versus SDT argument loses its significance. On a global scale, the rise in cohabitation is contingent on two dimensions: (i) contrasting historical patterns of kinship organisation, including the position of women, and (ii) further advances of the “ethics revolution”, indicating the growing dominance of individual autonomy over traditional societal norms. As a result, no breakthroughs in the near future are expected in countries with a Muslim or Hindu tradition in which no such major cultural shifts have occurred so far.

This does not disprove the Age of Malthusian Industrialism theory, since cultural changes that militate against fertility would need to be permanently increasing to cancel out likewise permanently ongoing selection for pro-fertility genes. However, if these cultural changes are deeper and/or keep going on for longer than expected, then obviously the AoMI scenario – which, in any case, operates over multiple generations, i.e. centuries – will be postponed.

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. Hartnell says

    You know I had an interesting but scary thought the other day. Maybe the low fertility rate really is the end of nations as we know it? Even the middle East is dropping in fertility and only just replaces itself now. East Asia is screwed, Europe happily mixes itself into non-existence. My overall point is – if birth rates keep dropping, people have less partners of their own race so end up taking partners of others, leading ultimately to a huge rise in individualism and the death of traditional national structures.

    Unless Europe and East Asia can develop some sort of Israeli mindset and get breeding, I do think that the mixture of the races in short a small scale of time could very well be a thing of the future…

  3. So European-Americans are more fertile than are almost all peoples in European countries. Although them being a minority (albeit plurality) in their own country is on the near horizon, their raw numbers are shrinking less than are those of their cousins across the Atlantic. Including Russians.

    Also, as usual, Ukraine probably has stark regional differences, though fertility rate there has declined everywhere. I suspect Ukraine’s far West is no worse than Russia or Belarus, its East much worse than Ukraine’s average. Given the fact that Ukraine is about 99.5% European in population, population decline is at least not accompanied by replacement (which is also true of low-fertility Belarus).

  4. Daniel Chieh says

    Hungary well on its way to revising Trianon.

  5. Pumblechook says

    Visegrad countries minus Poland are doing a fine job – Cicerone’s graph doesn’t include Czech Republic but they releases their Q1 stats last week and there is a slight drop commensurate with keeping their 1.72 TFR stable.

    Balkans posting solid results as well – Bulgaria Q1 is up fom last year and TFR is over 1.60 now. Bosnia is underestimated due to their ridiculous census results.

    Obviously it’s much harder to turn a larger ship, but Russia/Poland/Ukraine are just disappointing at this stage. No point being ‘based’ if you melt away as a people 25% less with each passing generation.

    The larger Western countries which still don’t have game-changing amounts of non-Europeans, (basically just Spain, Italy and Portugal) seriously need to up their game. Even being at a German 1.4-5 versus their current native 1.2 rates would have meant 50-100k extra annual births the last few years.

  6. Whats the deal with Kyrgyzstan? Being some stan how can it have such a big decrease?

  7. Pumblechook says

    On a demographics note, lockdown really sent me down the Anabaptist birth rates hole.

    1) Russian Mennonites (also known as Old Colony Mennonites), those of Dutch/Prussian origin who moved from Russia to Canada and finally to Latin America to escape modern life. Approximately 300k and TFR around 7. Unlike Amish, they do not lose 10% of each generation as no-one leaves the community to live with the Spanish-speaking Indians who live in bad conditions and dislike the Germans:
    – https: // (increase from 70k in 2007 to 140k in 2020)
    – https: // (around 100k, maybe 30-40k moved to Canada in the last 10 years because of instability in Mexico. They still have Canadian citizenship from the 1920’s)
    – https: // around 50-60k
    – https: // around 10-15k
    – In Canada, their number is very difficult to understand, as the migratory process is not finished. But approx. 50k

    2) Old Order Mennonites. Mennonites but closer to the Amish as they are both of Swiss/South German (Swabian) origin, also living in Pennsylvania. They are not close to the Russian Mennonites of Dutch / Prussian language and origin. ( ). This group are around 60k-70k with total fertility rate of 5-6, a little less than Amish
    – Hutterites ( ) with fertility rate of 5.0 but small population of 50k
    – Amish outside of America. 5k in Canada and 5k across Latin America

    It is difficult to count these groups, because they baptise at 18 and therefore population counts do not include children as Mennonites. Also living in wild regions and forests across Latin America. But in total, we are talking in 2020 about minimum 650k / maximum 800k ethnic Germans across the Americas with a TFR around 6

    Based on similar population sizes with similar TFRs. This group will be having a little over 30k births per year, a figure which can double every 15-20 years. So potentially 100k births by 2055, the rough equivalent of Bavaria, so this is a serious community which helps ensure that on a global level, the number of Germanic peoples will not decrease heavily. Good for them, I guess!

    The above list also does not include Mennonites in Kazkhstan (see their impact on the German birth rate, over 4k births per year still. Nor the Mennonites moved from Kazkhstan to Germany – most settled in Lower Saxony along with other Volga Germans. No surprise it’s the state with the highest TFR (

  8. Not Only Wrathful says

    South Korea TFR at 0.83 – absolute international record low?

    South Korea is a plastic and sterile culture. From K-Pop, to their birth rates, to their computer game obsessions, it is clear what aesthetic they seek to create.

    I am sure there are also many great and contradictory things about the place, but this impression is overwhelming.

    Paradoxically, it has led to substantial creativity in certain areas, as they pioneer the most plastic, sterile aesthetic to have ever existed. This creativity has further been helped by the lack of a Great Awokening; so things are hardly all bad over there!

    Perhaps, the general search for sterility helped them avoid the blessings of Coronachan.

  9. As I’ve always said, what will reunify the Korea’s is their birth rates. Both countries heavily dislike diluting the blood line and the Greatest Korea is still near replacement level. I know in 20 years North Korea’s population I think grew by 3 million. It wouldn’t surprise me if the two eventually come to some sort of labour agreement in the next 20 years and this eventually leads to some sort of unification based on that.

  10. The decline in birth rates in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus is mostly due to a falling number of women of reproductive age. There were few births from 1992 to 2007. It is logical that with a small number of women of reproductive age, your fertility rates will drop.

    This is temporary though. There were 1.9 million births in 2014 versus 1.1 million in 1999, so as the larger 2010’s cohort reaches childbearing age the birth rate will begin to rise again starting in 2035 ish. Life expectancy is also rising fast in Russia which means fewer deaths.

  11. This will only last so long though. Following German reunification, the East German birth rate which had been much higher than the West German one, took a nose dive falling from 1.9 children per woman in 1988 to o.7 by 1994. The NK birth rate will fall rapidly if the two are reunified.

  12. Very interesting, tightly knit religious minorities are clearly very fit for long term survival. At least when they don’t antagonize the authorities.

    Think of Mazdean Parsi people in Iran and India.

    This is clearly the case of these German sects, but also of the Russian Old Believers.

    Maybe when it all ends, these would be the only proud remains of once mighty peoples.

    OT but somewhat related, your comment made me recall this:

    I find this song beautiful, although given all the poetic metaphors I am not really sure what this song really is.

  13. Pumblechook says

    yeah, I follow demographics closely, including Russia. So very aware of the ’90’s pit’ dearth of births.

    But I’m interested in TFR, not birth rates. Unless I’ve misunderstood what you’ve written, Russia having a TFR of 1.44 in 2020 is nothing to do with declining cohorts of women in childbearing age groups. A country can have a very low birth rate yet a relatively high TFR if they are emerging from generations of low-fertility.

  14. I am hypothesising why the TFR might be falling. Generally high fertility rate is found in societies with high rates of poverty, low sexual education and conservative culture, all of which Russia has, so one would expect a high fertility rate but what they have is relatively low. I guessed this might be due to a trough in number of women of childbearing age as the two seem somewhat linked as when there are lots of women of childbearing age it seems like that is when fertility rates are high. The fertility rate in Russia fell in the 1960’s as the small war time cohorts came of age, and it increased in the 80’s as the big baby boom generation was in the childbearing age.

  15. How many of those births to White women in the US are with white fathers? If you count that the TFR for White women who give birth to white children is probably below 1.5.

  16. Pumblechook says

    hmm ok, yes I thought you might mean something like that. Could indeed be some kind of psychological impact on the body of society, I guess – a small generation was raised in a low-TFR household/neighbourhood/country and thus they internalise low TFRs and repeat them a generation later.

    Still, collective 1.35 is too damn low for a bloc of countries with almost 200 million.

  17. Plus why is British Columbia’s TFR so low, outside of Vancouver, 99 percent of southern BC is basically 90 percent white rural towns and small cities where you could expect the birth rate to be much higher.

  18. Pumblechook says

    Probably statistically insignificant. And it also goes the other way –

    Although births outside of marriage mean that marriage rates are not the best proxy, they are also the only one available. Firstly, white men marry ‘out’ more than white women (both above 97% though) and the most significant interracial marriage combination is white men with latin women.

    That latter combination turns up in the stats as a ‘birth to a hispanic mother’ but plenty of those kids will be entirely European-American in phenotype, name and upbringing. Some random examples of Anglo fathers with Spanish-heritage Latin women:×700.jpg

    That’s not even talking about the ‘white hispanic’ category where both parents are hispanic but pretty much both European by ancestry – Robert Rodriguez, Cameron Diaz, Oscar de la Hoya etc. A bit of a meme category due to George Zimmermann I’ll admit, but they certainly exist and in large numbers.

  19. Maybe Hitler should have won? If you weigh the plusses and minuses? I mean the current situation, which has no realistic chance of getting better, is not really much better than the Nazis winning.

  20. Kinda like that yes. If you grew up with only 1 sibling or as an only child it might seem unusual to have a large number of children.

    Luckily for Russia and Ukraine though, death rates are also falling though and the life expectancy now matches that of the late 1980’s Western World, and infant mortality has fallen inline with first world averages. Life expectancy is on track to match European average before 2050 so the biggest demographic problem for the former Soviet bloc, high mortality rates, is on the mend even as people are living longer even as the economy has stagnated as people are drinking less, smoking less, exercising more, eating better diets, etc.

  21. Communists have made a huge contribution to the “emancipation of women” type feminism. Add to this the impact of WWII with a strongly reduced number of available males and the effects of the Perestroika when the male population coped less with the economic collapse (alcoholism, drugs suicides) and you will have a grasp on a woman psychology in the Slav republics of the former USSR.

    These women are strong and self-sufficient, not in the Western sense, but in a more practical sense. They simply don’t expect too much from their male counterparts.

    The negative effect of this psychology would be that they don’t trust men and society to help them up with raising their children. They know that they can be left on their own any time.

    This is probably the most important reason why these women often choose abortion and have so few children. And the Slav males do not seek to have a high number of children either, they would think more about ensuring an income and having their own needs satisfied before sacrificing anything for kids and family.

    Of course these are generalizations and exceptions exist, especially among the religious people. But then the religious types are a minority among the former Soviet Slavs.

  22. Luckily for Russia and Ukraine though, death rates are also falling though and the life expectancy now matches that of the late 1980’s Western World

    It is actually problematic because it means more older people to support with a shrinking working age population. In the Soviet Slav mentality, babushkas often ended-up living with the grownup and married children. If you have an ailing family member at home that you must take care of, you will tend to have less children.

    Dedushkas (grandfathers) tend to die relatively early because of hard working, smoking and alcohol consumption. But if they live longer they will also need to be taken care of.

    In Moscow, it was relatively frequent to find three generations living in a small 3 rooms appartment with a tiny kitchen and a minuscule bathroom. This is not an ideal situation for big families.

  23. This is all due to the adoption of corporate state political economy that prioritizes busyness (not business) as a status maximizing function. I would not be surprised if there was a good correlation between national hours worked and national TFR.

    With the only exception of Russia, those hours worked do not produce value added output – you can clearly see this in the per capita debt loads of developed countries. Those debt loads are skyrocketing. EU lives only because ECB prints money like crazy, in US it is the Fed, BoJ for Japan etc. South Koreans drive their household balance sheet into the ground, which will end in tears as their household formation tanks due to abysmal birth rates. Russia has oil that papers over similar inefficiencies, but to their credit they can stick to budget which is important for developing economy.

    The only thing those hours worked produce is status (lawyers feel superior to cashiers and CEOs feel superior to lawyers), even though most of those jobs need to be automated, which is where we will be going in the post corona world. This constant rat race for status maximizing, especially after feminists brainwashed women into believing that being a corporate wage slave is the best thing a woman can be, will end badly.

    In the US for example, we are at $26 trillion in terms of national debt, and printing $trillions more every year. Meanwhile, marriage rates are at all time low, and fertility rates are dropping like a rock. Instead of giving this free money to the old and and the rich, we could have sponsored family formation for 100 million or so young adults. We would end up with exactly same levels of debt but it would work out to something like $half million per young household. That would set them up well and they would have a solid foundation for raising children.

  24. Passer by says

    That really depends on country. Eastern Europe is mixed bag on this. Divorce rate is low in Serbia, Romania, Poland, Armenia, Georgia, Croatia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Slovakia, etc. But divorce rate is high in the rest of Eastern Europe, especially former USSR.

    It looks to be more “former slav USSR” related than “Eastern Europe” related.

  25. Improvements in life expectancy don’t necessarily mean that old people live to be older. What it more means is that people are not getting murdered, not dying in childbirth, not dying in childhood and not committing suicide as much. Russia’s increase in life expectancy (up 8 years for women and 12 years for men since 1994) has been mostly driven by decreases in child and working age mortality. Suicide, homocide and drug overdoses have all fallen meaning people are surving into older age more, but not
    necessarily living much longer beyond that.

  26. If Hitler had won he would have killed an additional tens of millions of Slavs so the number of Europeans would have been lower, though the number of Germans, specifically, would have been higher. Plus, it is silly to equate loss of population due to small family sizes, with loss of population due to slaughter or mass starvation, simply because (if) the end result of either scenario is the same amount of people.

  27. Suicide, homocide and drug overdoses have all fallen

    I suspect gays are being killed more now, than before. The country has become less tolerant.

  28. I wrote about former Soviet Slav republics. I have no idea about what is going on elsewhere and frankly I don’t really care to know.

  29. Yeah many Slavs would have died, but in this current world they will die in the end. There is nothing that can save Slav world from the planet of the apes from engulfing them now. At least with a Hitler victory there would be some whites still around, better than what is happening now.

  30. Low TFR does seem to have a tendency to beget low TFR. Especially among women, who are going to have a disproportionate impact on what TFR ends up being.

    If you’re a girl in a high TFR society, you probably grew up helping to raise younger siblings, nephews, cousins, etc. Babies were always around. When you do start making your own babies, it feels less like a radical life transition and more like a natural continuation of your entire life up to that point. You don’t stress that you don’t know how to raise children; you’ve been doing it your whole life, and you will have lots of help — your own mother might well be in her 30s, might even still be making babies herself. If she’s older, then you have lots of older sisters with babies of their own who helped raise you. Not having children isn’t even a “lifestyle choice” that would occur to you. Children are a blessing; everyone around you is delighted by every child that you bring into the world, while the occasional old maid is a cautionary tale, shamed and pitied.

    In a low TFR society, babies are NOT around. You could easily live out your teens and 20s without ever having close contact with a baby. Practically every woman you know is an old maid; the married with children types move out to the suburbs and hang out with other marrieds and you don’t see them anymore. The natural continuation of your life would seem to be just continuing to work your job and watch your Netflix. Having a child is a massive, life-altering, scary, decision. You don’t know how to do it, and you stress about whether you’ll be capable, whether you’ll still be happy with less money and “me time”. Your mother still tries to help, but she’s in her 50s at the youngest, lives far away, and barely remembers anything about raising children from when she had you 30+ years ago. Forget about any help from sisters or aunts.

    As far as I can see, there’s really no path to get from the second society to the first one, other than a very slow process of natural and memetic selection. Or population replacement. Really, the most the second society can do on any kind of consistent basis is having a non-trivial percentage produce 3, maybe 4 children.

  31. White Latin Americans, well a lot of them, except for the descendants of recent European immigration, are barely 75 percent European, and are octoroons masquerading as white. But then this brings up the good question as to whether race is basically a social construct after all, with a biological definition so flexible as to make it useless.

  32. Ban all contraception? With the penalty for use being a bullet to the head? Joking here.

  33. Hitler genuinely liked Muslims and didn’t mind Africans (several former Nazis went on to have careers in Africa). He just hated Slavs and Jews. On some level he may have seen the latter as competitors. There is some truth to the Polish idea that Nazism is a twisted and debauched imitation of Judaism, as Communism is of Christianity.

    A Nazi world would have had a much smaller European “pie” albeit one with Germanics occupying a higher percentage of it. Islam would have retaken the Balkans south of Croatia, the remaining Slavs would have been swamped by central Asians east of the Urals, Japan probably would have gotten Australia. But Germany would have extended to Crimea and the steppes north of the Black Sea.

  34. Well if Alexa Chung, who is 40 percent Asian is white, and someone who is 95 percent is also white, doesn’t that make the biological meaning so vague as to make it largely a social construct? And phenotypes are a faulty indicator with respect to genetics. Otherwise George Zimmerman can get a plastic surgery, and then he becomes biologically white?

  35. A fertility rate of 3 or 4 children is out of the question for Russia but a rate of 2.1 or 2.2 is definately achievable. In 1987 Russia had a 2.2 fertility rate so clearly the Russian culture in 1987 was replacing itself, it can do so again under the right conditions.

  36. Race is the social expression of a biological reality. Science deniers try to completely excise the biology by saying race is a social construct. So we are left trying to defend biology while largely ignoring how this biology expresses itself in different societies.

    A half black man from Brazil is mixed (actually the Portuguese word for mixed) and explicitly rejects being called black (or the equivalent word). But a half black man from America is black; he might still use his white mother as a status symbol though. This is the difference between the racial binary of America versus the “racial democracy” of Brazil. Both are probably dumber than whites and have higher testosterone levels because the underlying ancestry, and thus biology, is similar.

    I’m sympathetic to the race versus ancestry semantics because of this.

  37. It all depends on what the Russian youth want. If they decide (and I presume many are) to focus on their careers and put off having children until later, focusing on mainly individualistic aspects, then that birth rate is staying where it is. Unless there is in the next few decades a genuine cultural push to stronger family values and raising children, then birth rates won’t go up.

  38. JohnPlywood says

    As far as I can see, there’s really no path to get from the second society to the first one, other than a very slow process of natural and memetic selection

    Martial law + mass rape + execute the cuck resistance can do it.

    It’s why Republican women abandoned Trump when he started threatening to “dominate” and sent in troops to stop the rioters. Women started shitting themselves because they became acutely aware that their reproductive frigidity comes to an abrupt end when the men of valor are in charge. Doors start flying off hinges, fathers executed, and girls sent to internment camps is what happens when martial law is declared.

    Don’t think it can happen? It already did in Nazi Germany with the KKK policy.

  39. This is a good post. But you are wrong about jobs getting automated.

    Why would lawyers and judges ever let their professions be automated? These are people with a guild. They do not have to let automation happen, and they won’t.

    As for automating cashiers, that is not going to happen because low quality labor is cheap and getting cheaper. Besides, a lot of people are not able to figure out self checkouts.

  40. Hello
    If you read Russian you should look up the demography blog by Russian demographer Zemfort1983, Anatoly often quotes his work and goes deep into the data. He estimates Russian Tfr in the mid 2020’s to 2030 iirc at 2.1 with over 2 million births over significantly fewer deaths.

  41. Anuxicus says

    I believe it is possible, as it was the case in Soviet times. The decline in deaths in not only possible but probable.

  42. Anuxicus says

    It isn’t really the youth who are making babies anymore. These days most babies are to women over 25.

    Delayed pregnancies won’t necessarily cause fewer births. Look at Ireland, they have the oldest mothers on average and also Europe’s highest fertility rate, which was above replacement level less than a decade ago. Same goes for the faroe islands which have the highest birth rate in Europe (2.5) and also a high average age of birth.

  43. Having children over the age of 35 is not healthy.

  44. Boswald Bollocksworth says

    AoMI is very solid, almost inevitable unless some new technology breaks us out of that destiny

    Culture/memes are subject to selection too. Unless TPTB are able to cull pro-fertility memes, over time the bias is always toward high fertility sub cultures. The highly religious are steadily increasing their share of the population through this baby bust (genes and memes)

  45. US was able to engineer a baby boom after WW2. US TFR collapsed in the 1920’s and bottomed out during Great Depression at around 2.3. Post war, TFR skyrocketed to 3-4 range and stayed there until the 60’s (when birth control got invented and corporations decided they wanted more cheap labor).

    During the war, US Government mobilized the men and sent them on the front, and pulled in a large quantity of females into the labor force. When men came back, Government made sure they were taken care of with job placement programs, and provided them with benefits for education and mortgages (GI bill etc). Corporations had to hire the men, and they kept older, experienced women. But young and inexperienced women were knocked out of the labor force by the influx of men.

    Young women like nice things, such as a car and a house in the suburbs. They also happen to be the most fertile. With them out of labor force, the way to nice things was through marriage. Baby boom resulted.

  46. Erik Sieven says

    ethnically very close to East Asia.

  47. Yeah, lawyers etc do have guilds. They will fight it. But history is filled with guilds trying to fight technology, usually technology wins.

    Cashiers are already getting automated. Its not even about automatic checkouts anymore – online sales are cannibalizing retail, its an unstoppable process.

  48. Erik Sieven says

    it doesn’t really help South Korea to be Corona-fighting world champion when they stop reproducing at the same time.

  49. songbird says

    Having children over the age of 35 is not healthy.

    One of the reasons credentialism is evil, and IQ is important.

    Still, given circumstances, it is probably better to have them, than to not have them. If you analyze family trees, I guarantee you’ll find some high parental ages, especially for the fathers. Granted, there probably was more purifying selection back then, but the point is we all have some ancestors that were old.

  50. JohnPlywood says

    Don’t be retarded, Kyrgyz have nothing in common ethnically with the infertile cultures of East Asia. It’s economic.

  51. Hartnell says

    This is a potential good point about Russia. I did just read a prediction about Russian demography stating that the country could rise to the mythical 2.01 by 2030 – 2040. It is entirely possible with this scenario when a lot of women get into their 30s and want a baby so it could lead to a baby boom by then.

    I think though there is a huge factor involved and that is the economy. Russia’s economy right now is not doing so great. The government certainly needs to do more in reviving it so people can afford to have more kids. If the economy doesn’t start to improve within the next decade or so, we could expect another baby glut.

    Still, Russia is nowhere near Ukraine which itself is a dying country entirely. I honestly have no idea how this country is going to survive in the long run…

  52. Unless Europe and East Asia can develop some sort of Israeli mindset and get breeding, I do think that the mixture of the races in short a small scale of time could very well be a thing of the future…

    Umm, Israel is an extremely mixed race country, and the miscegenation is just gaining momentum – the horror!

  53. Also, as usual, Ukraine probably has stark regional differences, though fertility rate there has declined everywhere. I suspect Ukraine’s far West is no worse than Russia or Belarus, its East much worse than Ukraine’s average. Given the fact that Ukraine is about 99.5% European in population, population decline is at least not accompanied by replacement (which is also true of low-fertility Belarus).

    Agreed–though the severe population decline in Eastern Ukraine could make it more vulnerable to a future Russian takeover. Eastern Ukrainians probably aren’t going to rebel against Russian rule, but there is a risk of things such as mass strikes; so, it’s good for Russia to have an Eastern Ukraine that has fewer people–especially if Russia still has its eyes set on more of Eastern Ukraine in the long(er)-run.

  54. The NATO alliance won’t allow that. Hungary is a total pipsqueak in comparison to them.

  55. But much duller than East Asians are, no?

  56. The Wild Geese Howard says

    I’ve heard South Korea described as Japan sans all the unique and interesting cultural elements and practices.

  57. songbird says

    I wonder how much of SK is explained by regime decisions based on opposition to NK. “We’ve got to study really hard to stay ahead of the Norks, says our universalist ally, the US.”

  58. Anuxicus says

    Russia had a fertility rate of 2.22 in 1987. If it could be done then it can be done again.

  59. Anonymous (n) says

    Absent mass immigration, low fertility isn’t as problematic as people make it out to be. Every single high IQ, relatively prosperous ethnic group is today either at or just slightly off its all time population peak. The Japanese, Polish and Koreans can stand to lose half their population and still be far more numerous than they have been for the vast majority of the thousands of years they’ve existed as distinct peoples.

    It’s a dumb fallacy to argue that unless a country’s population is either growing or maintaining its all time peak, that country’s people must be headed towards extinction. This is especially true in a world where ALL high IQ populations are falling more or less in tandem, as it means the relative power levels are not changing. Whether the low IQ groups are exploding in size within the confines of their own borders is irrelevant. Ten billion Africans are no more a threat to the Japanese than one billion Africans. The only threat to the Japanese would be a Japanese decision to let in Africans, but that would be a case of self imposed suicide rather than anything to do with exigencies created by demographic trends.

    If anything, I’d argue we’ve reached a point where declining populations are desirable and would lead to higher living standards in the long term if handled properly. Automation and other technologies are increasingly decoupling productive capacity from population size. A similar trend is visibly occurring in military power as well. The only real argument to be made against low fertility rates is the problem of pay as you go pensions, but I’m certain that this problem, while real, can be solved by means other than a Ponzi scheme of ever increasing population size, let alone self destruction by immigration.

  60. Erik Sieven says

    well, they look very East Asian.

  61. Why did Russia become less tolerant of gays?

  62. the remaining Slavs would have been swamped by central Asians east of the Urals,

    Highly unlikely considering that the Slavs east of the Urals would have likely received a huge population boost from the tens of thousands of Slavs who would have been deported from Eastern Europe to the east of the Urals.

  63. You should read what Michael Mills has to say about Nazi plans on the Axis History Forum and/or on Historum (before he got banned from the latter; he still posts on the former, I believe). He argues that in the documentation for Generalplan Ost there were no discussions of physical extermination of peoples and that instead the goal was the deportation of tens of millions of Slavs from Eastern Europe further east–possibly east of the Urals–over a couple of decades, I believe.

  64. There are a lot of randy Nigerians and Congolese who are willing to do their part to solve the problem of lack of babies in European and Slavic countries, just saying.

  65. Anonymous (n) says

    I’m not sure where you’re getting that notion from. As it stands, the Slavs are the only “whites” who have any hope of surviving as a free people beyond the 21st century, although if I were a Slav I’d be rather insulted at being grouped into that slave-race category.

    It’s by no means a guarantee, but if the Eastern/Central Europeans react to globohomo pressure to self destruct via immigration by letting go of historical grievances and realigning with Russia, then you have a very viable Slav power-center that can hold its own against the globohomo West and not get bullied within its alliance with China. A Slavic block stretching from Poland in the west all the way to Vladivostok in the east, containing >200 million ethnic Slavs in control of all the resources of Russian Eurasia and armed with the second most powerful nuclear arsenal in the world is more than enough to hold off the third worldized West cuckosphere for however long the latter can last before spontaneously combusting into Haiti level dysfunction.

  66. Hartnell says

    You know I have also thought about this and I tend to concur with you that increasing automation makes having children as an essential to the economy not really that important. It even will deter immigration in the future as well since there will be no economic need to import millions of people. Russia is trying to aim for this where as the US is stuck firmly in woke culture so will struggle with millions unemployed in the future. Escape from LA doesn’t look like science fiction anymore.

    On the flip side, you could end up seeing more inter ethnic marriages. Fewer people means fewer mates means more outside marriages. The Faroe Islands, despite having high fertility, has had cases of men with no wives so they marry abroad. So for those who do wish to see the group live on, it maybe impossible in the long run without some kind of ethno-patriotism which I think is alien to the European mind. Might get away with it amongst the Russians but the rest of Europe I think really doesn’t care…or would look in horror at such an idea…even if it wasn’t forced…

  67. Hartnell says

    Depends on how isolationist and nationalist the Slavs want to be though. Whether we like it or not, we do live in a globalised world. People can travel freely and amongst some Slavs, all they want is the West, patriotism be damned.

    That said however, the more stupid the West gets, the more the Slavic states feel threatened and pull up the drawbridge. Amongst the youth, there is a desire to replicate the high quality of life the West has had but the idea of going down the full Globo Homo path disturbs them as well. So maybe that will be a saving grace for Eastern Europe.

  68. Hitler liking blacks is nonsense, he wrote in Mein Kampf about the threat of the negros in France being right on the borders of Germany. To believe he would have wanted Europe overrun with blacks is beyond ludicrous, at best he viewed blacks as a jolly black sambo race as depicted in old Disney cartoons, but there is no way would support what is happening with the current world negromania.

  69. JohnPlywood says

    How fucking retarded do you have to be to realize that appearance isn’t culture?

    By the way, they don’t “look very East Asian”. They are a mix of European and East Asian features and frequently have blue/green eyes.

  70. Scratch a Russian, find a Tartar though? Especially East of the Urals, maybe the Orkneys or the Shetlands will hold out, or some inhospitable and perpetually economically depressed area of Patagonia. How many pure or at least 95 percent White/ European people are there anyway in the whole of the former Soviet Union? I am including Kazakh and Volga Germans here.

  71. I mean if you lose a species it is gone forever, if you lose a culture or a language, you can teach it again as long as the race still exists.

  72. That’s a good point about online sales, but I think that also gets at the real motivation for these trends.

    It is mostly wealthy or high-functioning whites and Asians figuring out how to avoid being around the rising tide of color, and other diversity. Buying at Amazon means you never have to encounter the plebs.

    But the plebs are still there, and many of them can barely read. Ordering things on Amazon is a high bar for many, like the self checkout lanes, only worse because there is nobody to ask for help.

    This segment of our society is increasing rapidly, and that is not something that makes automation likely, at least for the people on the ground. Getting stuff on Amazon may only get easier over time, but that is in a large part due to a glut of labor to move boxes.

    For that reason, don’t expect the jobs of fast-food workers, gardeners, maids, or janitors to be automated any time soon. Cashiers either. There is only so much automating away the needs of your poor, dumb customers before they burn down your buildings in frustration. Haha.

  73. I don’t see how, all the ones in the EU are obviously doomed as they will have to take in masses of blacks under EU law. Ukraine is no different, they willingly committed suicide by becoming a puppet to America. Belarus is too small to resit the African hordes. That leaves Russia, Russia is already a mixed race nation, their cuck lite ideologies are no defense against blacks. Once the rest of Europe has become overwhelmingly non white they will start moving into Russia, even at Haiti levels of dysfunction Russia cannot stop it because of the Russia liberals and the Russia church cucking (the Christian thing to do) will open the doors, at first slightly but once that happens it’s already too late.

  74. JohnPlywood says

    The Tartars are largely of European ancestry as were several ancient Central Asian Turkic ethnies. “Scratch a Russian find a Tartar” is an American white trash limerick.

  75. Hartnell says

    Won’t happen to Russia down to one simple thing. Money. Nobody in Russia wants to pay out large amounts of welfare to refugees of any colour. You see, the refugees all go to Europe because they know Europe will give them free money. Europe lied to itself as it is the right thing to do because of the past and obviously humanitarian concerns. Russians simply do not care and want the money reserved for them and nobody else. So honestly, I strongly doubt a refugee horde is going to appear at Russia’s doors. If anything, Russia will probably close the doors and focus on taking care of themselves, as the old “Socialism in one country” mindset goes.

  76. My point was that achieving 2.0 or higher requires a sizable number of women producing 3-4, to make up for the inevitable 25%+ share of the population producing 0-1.

    I think a recovery of the magnitude you describe ought to be achievable without totally retooling society, but nothing in the world currently seems to be pointing to it.

  77. Anuxicus says

    The Russian part of the Soviet Union had a fertility rate of 2.22 in 1987 – if Russia in 1987 could have replacement level of fertility there is no reason why Russia can’t do it today. It’s not as if Russian culture has changed much since the 1980’s.

  78. Well the bad news is that Russia is too corrupt and dysfunctional to reach Dutch, Austrian, or even Slovenian levels of per capita GDP in the foreseeable future. I mean its GDP growth seems to be permanently stuck in the 1 to 2 percent range since 2013. And even a miserly welfare state like in Texas and Florida still does not prevent it from being flooded by low wage Latinos who have homicide rates twice or thrice that of white people.

  79. Anonymous (n) says

    Yeah ok Nostradamus, if you say so. The point is this: Western whites are demographically fucked and it’s curtains for them given all already existing demographic, societal, and geopolitical trends. That’s not me creating a screenplay out of thin air and insisting it’s the only way the future can play out, that’s me just extrapolating existing trends to their logical end point.

    On the other hand, the Slav nation states are still demographically sound, and have shown no indication they are going to cuck in response to mere suggestions and harsh words. Will they cuck when faced with more draconian measures? Maybe, maybe not, and unless you’re a time traveler from the future your insistence that they will is utterly irrelevant. What is relevant is that they will have the option to not cuck by aligning with Russia, which while less than ideal is a far better option than joining the germanics as sex slave breeding stock on the globohomo plantation under southron overseers. I get it, you’re probably a butthurt germanic trying to console yourself by imagining that everyone else is just as fucked as you are, but I’m here to tell you that while history may have ended for your kind, it hasn’t necessarily ended for everyone else.

  80. Blacks in Europe weren’t sent to concentration camps as policy, and as I mentioned, several Nazis such as Riefenstahl had second careers in Africa or among Arabs. Nazis forbid race mixing but felt sorry for Africans, whom they thought of as victims of the Jewish slave trade.

    As for Islam – Hitler: “ Had Charles Martel not been victorious at Poitiers […] then we should in all probability have been converted to Mohammedanism, that cult which glorifies the heroism and which opens up the seventh Heaven to the bold warrior alone. Then the Germanic races would have conquered the world.” And “The peoples of Islam will always be closer to us than, for example, France.”

    If Germany had won the war it would have expanded at the expense of other Europeans, millions of whom would have been murdered. Germany itself would have been kept “pure” but much of the rest of the European world would have been given over to non-Europeans. The Albanians, Turks and Bosnians would have been given the Balkans. France would have been allowed to get even more flooded with Algerians. Germany would have favored Central Asians and Caucasians over the sad few remaining Slavs who would be struggling for survival with them after their expulsion from Europe. And I don’t think that the Germans would have interfered with the Japanese plans in Australia. Recall that the Japanese were performing medical experiments on captured Europeans.

    I’ve only known one real Nazi IRL (former party member, refugee from Danzig, decorated his house in the USA with swastikas), the older relative of a German-American friend from school. He was pro-Arab and pro-black and socialized with blacks. He was happy when Muslims killed westerners.

    In addition to being objectively terrible, Nazism was also specifically horrible for European people.

  81. If you think purely in terms of numbers, low fertility is fine. Yes, you can preserve a standard of living under low fertility, and you can even afford to pay for the guns and walls to keep the barbarians out. But it’s cultural cancer. It’s both a symptom and cause of low asabiyyah; it saps the will to keep the barbarians out.

  82. Nazis managed to already exterminate a few million Slavs during the war. Their plan was to kill millions more, leave a few manageable millions as helots, and send tens of millions into the wastes of Siberia where there would be massive starvation. The planned end game would be, perhaps, 30-40 million of remaining Slavs eking out an existence in the buffer zone against the rapidly increasing Central Asians. Although who knows what the Germans would do with the Slavs in response to mineral discoveries later in the 20th century? Recall what the Anglos progressively did to the native Americans.

  83. I am not at all surprised that Hitler liked Islam and that Nazis have favourable views on Islam.

    I believe Hitler had cordial and warm relations with the Mufti of Jerusalem, and I think Hitler is popular in Pakistan today.

    People think Hitler was an advocate for whites. What they don’t realize is how pitiless and harsh he was – when Germany started losing, he turned his back even on Germans and despised them. No loyalty unto death, in good fortune or bad. No my people come hell or high water. No sympathy or compassion for the people he led to ruin. No taking the long view and sticking by your defeated tribe with loyalty and courage until they can fight another day. Hitler only admired those he felt were “strong”. He was not a noble man with high ideals.He didn’t even have the virtues of a true tribalist.

    That being said, such a harsh, rigid system never lasts for long, and would have softened up considerably over time and collapsed from within, much like communism did for the same reason, but .it before causing tremendous suffering.

  84. One point IIRC Thorfinnsson made is that once you conquer Russia up to the Urals, there is no real downside to seizing the rest of Siberia as well and that is true even in the 1940s. Certainly leaving the area of that lightly populated but resource rich territory for Japan, or allowing a future pro-American Russian rump state to fester there, doesn’t make much sense – fantasies of maintaining a permanent war there to maintain German vigor are not serious – so the idea of stopping at the Urals was sooner an ideological trope than reflective of concrete plans.

    I agree with your general points, of course. One of the absurd tropes created by both modern Neo-Nazis and neolibs is that the OG Nazis were white supremacists or something like that. They were, in reality, extreme Germanic ethnonationalists; even Slavs aside, their long-term designs even for France were very bleak from the French perspective.

  85. The designated successor for Hitler was Goering, since Hitler was not in the best of health, once Goering takes charge, he would probably switch to turning the Slavs into dhimmis and Germanizing some part of them, and the Wehrmacht would also support a more moderate policy, if in order to reduce manpower requirements in Russia, it would basically be like the German colonies in the Baltic states during the Middle Ages, or the Crusader States, rather than the American Indian scenario, plus I doubt whether Germany had any surplus population to colonize Russia, since even in the late 1930s, the Germans were barely above replacement rate. So probably a few ten of thousands of German administrators and civil servants governing one hundred million Slavic dhimmis, or a lot more likely, they would just set up German “assisted” independent states in European Russia, like the Japs did in Manchukuo?

  86. Germany did not have ANY surplus population to colonize anything except the Polish border areas, so the most likely outcome once Goering takes charge is the the Manchukuo and Menjiang option for Russia. Basically independent Balkanized states in Russia with German “advisers”, with local elites to act as their front man.

  87. FWIW, I believe that Michael Mills’s argument was that Siberia had enough farmland to sustain a huge increase in its population so that there didn’t have to be massive starvation had tens of millions of Slavs been forcibly deported there.

  88. One point IIRC Thorfinnsson made is that once you conquer Russia up to the Urals, there is no real downside to seizing the rest of Siberia as well and that is true even in the 1940s. Certainly leaving the area of that lightly populated but resource rich territory for Japan, or allowing a future pro-American Russian rump state to fester there, doesn’t make much sense – fantasies of maintaining a permanent war there to maintain German vigor are not serious – so the idea of stopping at the Urals was sooner an ideological trope than reflective of concrete plans.

    Did Nazi Germany actually have the necessary logistics to occupy all of Siberia, though?

  89. Do you believe that had Russia done Fascist instead of Germany going Nazi during the Great Depression, a Fascist Russia would have been much more pro-white than Nazi Germany was?

  90. Russia runs a budget surplus of around 2% GDP. If they chose to spend it, Russian GDP growth would go up to 3-4%. If Russia embraced money printing like developed countries and China, Russian GDP growth would be in the 6-8% range.

    The only concern is inflation – developing economies can not print money like developed ones can. But Russian inflation stayed below central bank target of 4% for years now, which signals that Russia is in the process of transitioning from developing to developed economy.

    Since Russia will be arriving into the money printing/deflationary stage late relative to other major economies, and doing so with incredibly strong fundamentals (budget, trade, foreign reserve surpluses and no foreign debt), I expect Russia to have far better economic performance going forward relative to the current crop of developed countries, and also China.

  91. Passer by says

    Hartnell, i see that you are interested in Russia and Eastern Europe, so i will tell you a secret. It looks like eastern european women are biologically more feminine than western women. That is, they have lower exposure to fetal testosterone compared to western women.

    It is possible that this is responsible for lower level of gender issues, LGBT and feminism in Eastern Europe. This, in turn, could also mean that those societies will be less liberal. It could have implications for the Globohomo agenda in those countries.

    From my personal experience, i could certainly say that women in Eastern Europe have more gentle facial features, wear skirts more often than western women, and free their hair more often too, instead of using a ponytail. The closer you go towards Russia, the more likely is to see something like this.

  92. I think all of those jobs are getting automated, even janitors, regardless of what the plebes think. Cost savings from not having to pay labor are far too great to ignore.

    1. Fertility rate is independent of the number of women in the cohort.

    In Russia, there are indeed the famous “waves” in the population pyramid.

    This is why demographers look instead at fertility rate, as the determinant of natural population replacement.

    Problem is that “total fertility rate” estimate is a predictive tool, which can produce more noise than signal whenever people change timing of births.

    So ideally, you would wait to see the eventual fertility rate after the cohort of women have completed the reproductive years.

    1. Births fell dramatically in the 1990s, but the fertility rate was likely quite constant relative to the 2000s. Retrospectively, it seems a trend of women delaying having the second child during the crisis years, and then for those same women to have those children they had avoided in the crisis, in the stable years.

    In the end, the fertility was around 1,6 children per women, and women’s completed fertility rate might be quite invariant to economic crises.

    We can see fertility rate seems like it has and will be stable for women born since around 1965-1970 – fertility rate is around 1,6. (This was from a paper in 2011)

    If you want to compare to Japan. Japan has cohort fertility rate falling below 1,5 for women born since around 1970. They have probably stablized after but Japan has fallen (and likely stabilized) to a lower fertility rate than Russia.

  93. Germany is the worst country on this topic, considering they actually had below replacement fertility across the 1930s (including under Nazi rule in the 1930s).

    Replacement fertility rate in 1930s Germany, would be significantly higher than 2,1 even with peace.

    Looking at the fertility of women of 1930s Germany, – they were below replacement fertility, even if there had been no war. Note fertile women of the 1930s, were born from 1910s. So look at the fertility rate for the 1910s cohort –

  94. In sub-replacement fertility, the eventual population will be larger if the space between generations is larger (i.e. if age when women have children is older), than if the space between generations is smaller. (It declines at a lower rate).

    So, if the fertility rate is below replacement, then women having children at older age will slow the decline in the population, than if they had the same children when they were young.

    Or another way to write it: if the cycle of generations is happening faster at below replacement rate, then population will later age at a comparatively faster rate – once those children born in below replacement cohorts pass median age of the population – than if those same generations were cycled more slowly.

    Of course, this is also in the opposite – in a situation with above replacement fertility, then increasing the age of when women have children, will result in a lower population ceteris paribus.

    In Europe the situation is sub-replacement fertility with rising ages of women having children. The latter means that the effect of the sub-replacement fertility on the eventual population is lower, than if women were having children younger with sub-replacement fertility.

  95. most latin american countries (inclunding Mexico) are below replacement rate, even countries like Iran and Turkey have low fertility rate.

  96. Daniel Chieh says

    How common is hormonal birth control there?

  97. Passer by says

    Less common than in Western Europe.

  98. I guess even if you remove all other factors: the de-novo mutations in the germline cells, the health of the mother, etc. – younger mothers would still be more desirable, as shorter generation time would probably cause a quicker cultural change, if you were trying to build a natalist culture – or if you were trying to create Anatoly’s breeders.

    One of the things that amazes me about dogs is that it seems that most breeds aren’t really that old, but maybe, it is not really as significant as it seems at first, as many traits were probably being selected for, for many years previously without strict standards about appearance, or people feeling the need to write about them. When you get hit by a Labrador’s tail, you really feel like there is centuries built into the thing, before people even had a name for the breed, or before Europeans had even brought Old World dogs there. And anyway, in terms of number of generations, we are still talking big numbers.

  99. I had the passing thought that one could use crowd-tracking software for anthropological purposes, to try to measure the femininity of women in different countries, by their modes of dress, and try to correlate it to TFR.

    But, then again, I believe that skirts and dresses are relatively more popular in Korea, with its rock bottom TFR.

  100. Agathoklis says

    Greek births have increased slightly. That is probably a bounce coming out of the crisis. We need to double births to at least 56,000 and then begin thinking about supplementing the Griko-speaking population south of Lecce, the Greek population in Northern Epirus (southern Albania), Cyprus and then once that strategy gains momentum, then begin the first tentative steps into re-settling Smyrna and the greater Meander Valley.

  101. Daniel Chieh says

    I’ve often been of the opinion(based on linked study) that hormones impact the brain, and its likely that long-term use of hormonal birth control has defeminizing effects.

    What of the mammal’s nervous system? It turns out that the brain is a veritable sponge for steroid hormones. In the male, the androgen testosterone (or a metabolite) binds to brain receptors and sculpts that structure into the aggression-promoting, sex-craving, risk-taking regulator with which we are all familiar. By the same token, the comparative lack of androgen hormones in the female produces the kinder, gentler, softer neural substrate that distinguishes itself from the male by dint of its vastly different behavioral repertoire.

    …Additionally, in Pletzer’s study, women using hormonal contraceptives showed larger gray matter volumes in the prefrontal cortex, pre- and postcentral gyri, the parahippocampal and fusiform gyri and temporal regions, when compared to naturally cycling women. The brain works like a neural beehive; the proper coordinated functioning of groups of tasked neurons are important to successfully accomplish a variety of mental tasks — even the sensory processing and motor coordination needed for something as simple as picking up a hot cup of coffee without scalding oneself. Again, we do not know whether this increased gray matter translates into better or worse performance, but there likely is little good about treating a woman’s brain like a spongy accordion.

  102. Agathoklis says

    I should add, as the United States, Canada, the UK and then later Australia joins the Afro-Islamic-Asian sphere, we should offer incentives for Greeks with both Greek parents living in these countries to repatriate under a refugee program. Initially, language will be an issue for many of them but that can be solved within a generation. Within two generations a population of 30 million is entirely feasible. And then I woke up from my dream.

  103. The problem is not just mass immigration. Low IQ people are outbreeding those with high IQs is most of the developed world, even among homogeneous populations. Below replacement fertility combined with dysgenics is a recipe for disaster.

  104. “had Russia gone Fascist” (typo)

  105. their long-term designs even for France were very bleak from the French perspective.

    A return to France’s 1648 borders doesn’t seem too bleak.

  106. Malenfant says

    Has any nation ever managed to go from TFR 1.4 to TFR 2.1? (To say nothing of the roughly 3.0 TFR your scheme would seem to demand.)

    Besides, Turkey’s TFR (2.05) is substantially higher than Greece’s — and its population is 8x larger. It also has a much more powerful and, of late, battle-hardened military.

    Sadly, I don’t think that you’re going to re-settle Smyrna any time soon. You’re going to have your hands full keeping your existing population centers alive.

  107. plus I doubt whether Germany had any surplus population to colonize Russia, since even in the late 1930s, the Germans were barely above replacement rate.

    They certainly wouldn’t immediately, but if they will hold onto the European part of Russia for centuries or even longer than that, then they would eventually have a huge surplus population due to their breeders becoming a larger and larger percentage of their total population over time. This would be especially true if Eastern Europe (including the European part of Russia) will be emptied out of a lot of its inhabitants and thus the Germans who will settle there wouldn’t have to worry about being surrounded by a huge hostile Slavic population.

  108. Anonymous (n) says

    I don’t think there is much evidence supporting the claim that low fertility impairs tribal survival instinct. Look at the enormous cucks the Irish have become despite what was until very recently an above replacement level TFR and compare them to sub 1.0 TFR racial purity obsessed Koreans. As another example, American whites have a significantly greater TFR than any eastern European nation yet they’re outgroup worshipping subhumans par excellence while eastern Europeans are still very much Team Remove Kebab.

  109. JohnPlywood says

    You have no idea what you are talking about.

    “Above replacement fertility” means nothing. Ireland hovers above replacement – meaning they’re around 2.2-2.5. This was, up until recently, below the norm for even middle class households in the West. In an historical context, it is a pitiful brood. Traditionally, women birthed 5-10 children in their lifetimes. This is the “traditional” (what you call “tribal instinct”) fertility rate, which was common all over the world prior to the 19th century. It was in Rome, it was among the Germanic “tribes”, it was in Japan, and every other ancestral culture of people who are today described as “K selected” by morons.

    Merely having a 2.2 fertility rate does not make Irish people “traditional” simply because it is above the mathematical replacement rate. It’s a benign, modern middle class family size that would have been considered pathologically low by your ancestors. The fact that people here believe that a 2-3 TFR is somehow “traditional” or “tribal” just goes to show how low the bar has been set by you hopeless cucks. That’s a TV sitcom family size. It’s beta as fuck.

    And the Koreans are not “purity obsessed”. About half of all kids born to Korean fathers have Filipina or Thai mothers. Korean emigrant women have a high rate of intermarriage with white men. South Korea is very much a multi-culti state with low racial idenitification.

    The world seems like a great place to live when you’re making history in your own mind, as many people on the right are want to do, but that does nothing to help our discussions here, which are only useful when everyone involved has a firm grip on reality. Please, stop polluting the comment section with your fantasies.

  110. Agathoklis says

    I did indicate in a follow on post it was wishful thinking.

    However, your data on Turkey is incorrect. The core Sunni Turkish population (removing Kurds and Alevis) is around 50m which means it is 4.1x the Greek population. Also, not so sure about their military strength. Any war with Greece would be largely fought in the air (the land border at Thrace is so heavily militarised they will neutralise each other) and they recently purged up to 40% of their fighter pilots and have not gotten their hands on the F-35. In addition, it is commonly accepted Greek pilots are better trained. Also, Turkish performance in Idlib and Afrin has not been impressive. Without a doubt it would be tough fight but it will not be a rollover.

  111. JohnPlywood says

    I didn’t see anything in that quote that said birth control had “defeminizing effects”. Birth control pills are typically synthetic female sex hormones like progestin and estrogen. Taking them can’t de-feminize someone. The effects described in the quote (larger brain mass in the prefronfal cortex and temporal regions) could be interpreted as increased feminization.

    Perhaps take off the virtual reality headset, and flush your old opinions down the toilet.

  112. JohnPlywood says

    Battered female: Anonymous(n)

  113. silviosilver says

    Probably statistically insignificant


    Births to white mothers with non-white fathers is in the region of 15%, and growing.

    There’s nothing preventing the proportion reaching 100%, as mixing is encouraged by all important social spheres – education, media, entertainment, politics.

    Intermixture is how whites will die. The future racial “type” that a country is breeding towards is the average of all the racial types within it. If America was 99% white and 1% black, then mixing with the 1% that was black would not alter its long term average “type” much. But America is less than 60% white, so the long-run average it is breeding towards will be distinctly non-white.

  114. silviosilver says

    What a terrific simpleton you can be.

    A postwar nazi liking arabs is utterly fucking meaningless. Why do you suppose he might have a favorable opinion of them, eh?

    Only a child could read so much into Hitler’s “Mohameddanism” remarks.

    I myself have from time to time wondered out loud, only semi-seriously, if it wouldn’t have been better if the Nazis had won, since although it would have meant at least a couple of extremely harsh decades while Hitler still lived, the fascist fervor would eventually have died down, and the set of problems at the end of it would have been much less daunting than what Europe today faces.

    Using AP’s approach, you’d conclude, wow this Silvio guy was pro-nazi, just look at what he said!

    In reality, nazism was a living nightmare for people like me, and most of my life I couldn’t have felt gladder that the monster was vanquished (and it was people like me doing the vanquishing, woohoo!). Why should one offhand remark override the main thrust of my own thoughts? Same with Hitler, who deep down couldn’t given a rat’s ass about some shitty third world culture and race like islam.

  115. silviosilver says

    Initially, language will be an issue for many of them but that can be solved within a generation.

    In the interim, language wouldn’t be much of a problem anyway, since they would have the numbers to form English-speaking enclaves. As much as this might annoy ultranationalist purists, there’s little they could do about it.

  116. LondonBob says

    It is clear Europe and the West are experiencing something similar to the collapse of the Roman Empire, dire but rebirth can happen. It is likely Oriental countries will just return to similar population levels of earlier times and the population boom will be just an anomaly.

  117. LondonBob says

    Yet many allied Slavs fought and served alongside German forces. Hitler was a product of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and his, often contradictory, attitudes reflect this.

  118. LondonBob says

    Long term German plan for EE has always been as many small satellite states as possible carved away from Russia, probably not that different from today.

  119. JohnPlywood says

    Don’t be ridiculous, less than 10% of births to white women (the few that actually give birth) are to non-white fathers. It’s also not a growing trend and is far lower than the rates for other races women.

  120. I have never understood how you can square an age of Malthusian Industrialism with the coming of human genetic engineering a decade or two from now. Are you assuming that no society will adopt intelligence enhancing biotech? Because if even a single society adopts it, Malthusian Industrialism will not happen.

    Biological singularity is guaranteed this century imo.

  121. JohnPlywood says

    Collapsing economies, global brain drains and debt problems in all major countries make that a virtual impossibility.

  122. How many pure or 95 percent Euro white people are there among American millennials and zoomers?

  123. Agathoklis says

    A fair bit of German-speaking lands were also carved off the Germans over the two world wars. I think this was also part of the long-term plans of Russia and France.

  124. You should ask why it hasn’t happened already if it’s cost effective. Self checkout lanes or automated service at a fast food restaurant is not technically that hard. Why haven’t these practices taken over? Because it is not cost effective beyond some limited implementation, and there are a lot of people whom you can’t serve that way.

    For problems that are technically hard, like automating the jobs of maids and janitors, we will not see innovation not only because we have a glut of menial laborers, but also because we lack the human talent to solve those problems. Our productive classes are in full-on demographic collapse, not even at half of replacement rate fertility.

    Of the things you listed, only law is amenable to automation. Too bad lawyers are guilded and control the state. Any progress there will be very slow.

  125. A postwar nazi liking arabs is utterly fucking meaningless.

    The point is that he was, actually, a pre-war Nazi. I assume that his attitude was typical of the type, and Hitler’s comments corroborate that.

    Only a child could read so much into Hitler’s “Mohameddanism” remarks.

    Words privately spoken in different places probably reflect one’s beliefs.

    I myself have from time to time wondered out loud, only semi-seriously, if it wouldn’t have been better if the Nazis had won, since although it would have meant at least a couple of extremely harsh decades while Hitler still lived

    During which millions of Slavs would have been killed.

    Same with Hitler, who deep down couldn’t given a rat’s ass about some shitty third world culture and race like islam.

    Well, sure, he believed that Arabs were inferior to Germans. He also believed French etc. were inferior to Germans. But he did not favor the French over Arabs. And he certainly did not favor Slavs over Arabs, Albanians, or Turks. As I wrote, Nazi victory would have meant expansion of the German world but also shrinking of the all-European world as millions of Europeans would have been lost and their settled territory shrunk.

  126. Yet many allied Slavs fought and served alongside German forces.

    Mostly after the war was already lost and the Germans were desperate. Croats were an exception but the Germans decided they weren’t real Slavs. Galicians also, to a certain extent.

  127. Anuxicus says

    Firstly America is over 70% white when Hispanic Whites are included. There is no reason to count Hispanic Whites as non white if you are counting Italians as white.

    Secondly minority birth rates in the US have been rapidly falling, much faster than White birth rates have been.

    Thirdly America isn’t an Ethno State like Japan or many European countries. A foreigner can’t become Japanese or a German but they can become an American. America has always been diverse country with different races. America isn’t like Germany in this regard in that multiculturalism is a modern invention but rather it is part of the American fabric since day 1.

  128. The designated successor for Hitler was Goering, since Hitler was not in the best of health, once Goering takes charge, he would probably switch to turning the Slavs into dhimmis and Germanizing some part of them, and the Wehrmacht would also support a more moderate policy

    This is a fair point. The USSR wasn’t Stalinism forever, and it is possible that after Hitler, the Nazi state would have slowed down also. In judging the Nazis we should judge them as they were, not as they might have been decades after had they had won the war.

    However Hitler was fairly young and had a good 15 years left in him, at least. So the Nazi state would have been able to cull several million, probably over 10 million or intoit he tens of millions, of Slavs at least before it settled down. Remember that the Nazis starved to death millions of Soviet POWS. When they occupied the USSR they deliberately kept intact the collective farms that the Soviets had created. They used this mechanism to starve the Slavs (about 1 million Ukrainians were starved this way during the war – it was not as bad as the number starved by Stalin, of course). So the project to reduce the number of Slavs in the world had a tool that could be used effectively to do so, over several years. So while it is questionable whether 60 million or whatever Slavs would have ultimately been killed (though it is not unlikely, Mao was able to kill a similar number of Chinese in just a few short years), ten or more millions at least is would have been likely.

    , it would basically be like the German colonies in the Baltic states during the Middle Ages, or the Crusader States

    IIRC the Nazis did not want to repeat past “mistakes” and be in a position where Slavs would rise again. They wanted to cull the numbers down where they would never again threaten German hegemony in Europe. Slavish Czechs were no threat so they were to be largely left alone (and Germanized), but the rest were to be reduced to perhaps 30 million in Europe, living as helots. Those deemed sufficiently Aryan in appearance would be Germanized. A similar number would be able to live east of the Urals. Poles were deemed particularly troublesome so they would be mostly exterminated so the remaining Slavs would be Russians, Belarussians and Ukrainians.

  129. But it is happening – I posted a link to an article about Walmart employing robot janitors. Every major store has self checkouts now. When you go to a chain restaurant, you will order and pay on a touch pad. Amazon is buying robot’s for warehouse automation. It is only a matter of money to invest, and different businesses do it at different rates as cash becomes available, but it is happening.

    It doesn’t mean all those jobs are going away, but where you used to have 5 cashiers, you will have one cashier watching over 5 self check outs now. Given that cashiers and store clerks are one of the largest professions in the US, eliminiating even 50% of them through automation will have an impact on labor market, as well as cost of goods and services.

  130. Hartnell says

    Yeah to be honey you have a good point here. If we actually read the history of the fall of the Roman Empire, actual Italy itself wasn’t heavily colonised by the invading Germanic hordes. Instead they mostly left and went back to their native homelands once there was no more loot to plunder. I think in regards to modern mass migration, the same effect is likely to take place. It’s all about the money at the end of the day.

  131. Hartnell says

    Yeah I agree with this statement too. Most white people in Europe usually marry white. I did notice a trend in the UK where actual mixing was taking place between individuals that were half white and between whites. The trend was usually between mixed race girls and white boys. So that in itself means within the next generation, the children from these relationships will start to appear more white and assimilate even more into the dominant mainstream.

  132. Daniel Chieh says

    As a civilization, Rome never recovered though.

  133. Hartnell says

    It’s not just the women who have more feminine features but also the men. I tend to notice a more masculine look amongst Western men and women but when it comes to the east, both genders tend to have more feminine features in their faces. This also is an interesting post because I am aware that in Russia, the women are naturally the strongest gender with the men being the weakest. There is mindset there of continually having to look after the men like they are little boys and pushing them in the right direction. It’s not traditional patriarchy but something else entirely.

  134. Daniel Chieh says

    I’m not sure if that isn’t traditional patriarchy in some contexts: needing women for validation and support is something expected even in a very patriarchal culture such as Japan, where women were considered the “social glue” to presumably soften and anchor the the greater initiative of men to the graces of civilization. Or even in the feminist-ish writings of Sylvia Plath who objected: “A woman is expected to be the place the arrow launches from; a man is the arrow.”

    Adam Smith also wrote of rather extreme examples of such in the Highland Scottish, where women took on huge amounts of ownership of the family, and men were expected to fight and hunt; this extended to bragging about the idleness of their men.

  135. JohnPlywood says

    Suggests women in a position of power is a sign of patriarchy
    >Cites non-patriarchal cuck cultures and a feminist motivational quote as evidence of this

  136. It did actually. The remaining Romans eventually evolved into the Italian people and pretty much assumed much command and dominance within the Catholic Church, forming much important decision making over the various successor Germanic kingdoms. They also pretty much started the Renaissance that went ahead in reshaping European culture for centuries to come. I’d actually say in many aspects the Romans really did make a come back. Not to the same extent as the Roman Empire but they did and had a huge influence. Even to this day Italy is pretty much a hot bed of culture that has given birth to pizza, unique forms of art, culture, etc. Many things still came from Italy that lives on with us to this day.

  137. I don’t really care for comments that are this harsh and insulting, but I think it’s basically correct that a TFR of 1.5 is more like a TFR of 2.2 than either is to a higher TFR, even a TFR of 3.5. Though really, we’re talking about TFRs of 1.7 and below. Comparing Korea, US whites, and Russia on their TFR, and on how “based” they are in racial matters isn’t telling you very much. Other factors, not reflected in TFR, are more important.

    Also, trying to decide whether to put up walls to block the invader, or to intermarry with the invader, isn’t really that different of an impulse, either. In neither case is your society the one doing the invading. In both cases, the invader is the one with agency and initiative, and you’re just trying to figure out how to live comfortably with that fact.

  138. Daniel Chieh says

    TIL Scottish Highlanders are the ultimate cuck culture.

  139. Daniel Chieh says

    The thing is, perhaps hilariously, the Romans weren’t actually the initiators of much culture.

    The unique aspects of Roman culture mostly have not survived – with some major exceptions in terms of law, where Roman law and definitions of ownership enduring to this day. Classic Republic Romans were essentially a highly fascist state with a strong emphasis on engineering that would eventually gave us aqeducts, early piping, etc and notions of gravitas and collectivism(Roman legionaries actually threw their own bodies into pikes, suicidially, with the explicit hope of dragging down the phalanx for their fellows). And of course, dulce et decorum est pro patria mori.

    Much of that did not endure, Greek individualism and artistic culture gradually overtook Rome itself, Romans themselves took on a creation myth from Greek mythology with Aeneas, “realistic” forms were gradually replaced by idealized sculpting, etc.

    Renaissance scholars would later “rediscover” Greco-Roman culture to which they would embellish significantly, sometimes adding even an Egyptian component as seen with Hermes Trismegistus. These days, Italy, especially Southern Italy, isn’t really known either for its engineering or for its culture of dignified restraint.

  140. LondonBob says
  141. No, I don’t think so. I am not sure WN regimes are possible in principle, since they will attract the enmity of other white nations probably to an even greater extent than POC countries.

    Though this is a moot point since Russians are POC anyway.

  142. Gorgeous George says

    Great point, the best Korea should only settle for the full cleanse of the southern bootlickers.

  143. Tentative plans would have reduced France to a rump state, with artificial states like Burgundy carved out of it, and gradually inculcated with their own separatist, Germanic identity; and even the rump French state’s population was to have been in permanent decline, with the Germans purposefully not just allowing but encouraging prostitution, abortion, etc. to run rampant there (at least that was the logic – as we now know, social liberalism does not universally lead to lower fertility).

  144. I addressed this issue multiple times in my AoMI posts. The AoMI scenario is predicated on technological stagnation, i.e. a future in which all those things DON’T happen.

  145. Why are Russians POC? Indeed, if Russians can be POC, any group can be.

  146. A singularity will certainly prevent technological stagnation, but would it actually prevent an extreme baby boom in the long(er)-run? After all, high fertility genes are still going to eventually become much more widespread in the population even if the population will, on average, become astronomically smarter, no?

  147. Not everyone is actually willing to be a prostitute or to get an abortion even if it’s legal, though.

  148. anonymous coward says

    You’ve got it backwards. The traditional Russian family is three generations because grandparents are taking care of existing kids while parents are providing for the next batch. Birth rates in Russia are falling because the traditional Russiab family is slowly being destroyed by modernity.

  149. Actually the Mennonites in Bolivia and Peru do get along well with the surrounding communities, because they do not compete with anybody since they set up shop in almost virgin Jungle originally.
    In the case of Bolivia, but also Mexico, they do lose some members but usually to more open Mennonite communities, at least at first. Like this girl Sarah Peters, a model, from a Mennonite offshoot.
    Or this more integrated to Bolivia Mennonite Community

    This girl is a Mexican Mennonite. From the portion that is more integrated to Mexico.
    In Peru, they have a few settlements deep in the forest, for a few years in Spanish
    This guys came from Belize to Peru seeking cheap land and because they were against the liberalization of their surrounding Mennonites. in French.
    the only complaints came from Environmental NGO’s whining about the forest burning. Nonsensical, the Peruvian Amazon is almost empty with 3 million people for 771000 Km2. More that 2 Germanys.

  150. Agathoklis says

    “These days, Italy, especially Southern Italy, isn’t really known either for its engineering or for its culture of dignified restraint.”

    That is a very ignorant comment. Modern Italy is world class in automotive engineering, civil engineering with the viaducts of the southern autotrada, the urban arcades of Milan and Naples, electrical engineering and design with the numerous household appliance makers and so on.

  151. Daniel Chieh says

    Its good to know; this is why Unz is helpful for information.

  152. Daniel Chieh says

    Russians have experienced great oppression under white and white-adjacent populations; as whiteness is a system of privilege and oppression, it must be understood that Russians have suffered – lost millions of people, often under sadistic and inhumane torture – in a way that only people of color can truly understand. And as people of color, it is not nice to deny their unique lived experiences and identity.

  153. anonymous coward says

    Depends. Your first child at 35 – definitely bad. If it’s your fourth then you’ll probably be okay.

  154. anonymous coward says

    …a hot bed of culture that has given birth to pizza.

    OMG, I don’t even.

  155. So European-Americans are more fertile than are almost all peoples in European countries. Although them being a minority (albeit plurality) in their own country is on the near horizon, their raw numbers are shrinking less than are those of their cousins across the Atlantic. Including Russians.

    Is it possible to gauge White America fertility accurately? It is apparently normal for several non-white groups to be included as White in American demographic studies. Most famously, Hispanics are usually counted as white, but also Turks, Arabs, Persians and occasionally even Central Asians IIRC. The fertility of these groups would need to be subtracted from that of White Americans, pushing it even lower than it is.

  156. The return of the Hungolian draws near!

  157. Don’t you mean quadroons?

  158. Eat my ass!

  159. Hispanics were counted separately here. But you are correct that Middle Easterners are counted as White. However unlike in Western Europe, they are pretty small percentage of the population in the USA and wouldn’t make much of a difference.

  160. sudden death says

    Rome never recovered as an unified empire, but as civilization (even if it was not exactly same copy from Roman Republic times) they definitely did, though it took really long time, roughly around thousand years from the collapse. It can be argued that the language also did not went completely extinct, just naturally evolved, as arguably the difference from modern Italian to Latin is even less than difference of Old English from Modern English.

  161. Some Guy says

    Hey Anatoly, have you considered the following?

    When TFRs are depressed by a temporary environmental effect, like the soviet collapse in the 90s, then presumably it’s the people with very high fertility preferences who still have children. (Assuming it’s not just the people who happen to hold onto to good jobs through the crisis who keep having kids.)

    Since fertility is heritable, the post-soviet states might have a bit of a boom in fertility rates when that generation is in their prime child-bearing years. Of course since that generation is smaller the actual number of births is presumably still not going to be that impressive, but it could still have a significant effect.

    The lowest fertility seems to have been in East Germany which reached a low of 0.77 in 1994, so that’s where the biggest effect should be. That cohort will probably be in peak-childbearing age around 2025. The rest of the Soviet Union seems to have reached their low point later, Russia at 1.23 children in 1999 for example. That generation will probably be in peak-childbearing age around 2030.