Homicide Rates in Africa

Charles Murray was widely lambasted a few weeks back for this Tweet:

Indeed, Sub-Saharan Africa isn’t that bad according to official homicide stats. For instance, Burkina Faso and Benin claim 1.3 and 1.1 /100,000 homicides, respectively, per year (from UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s International Homicide Statistics via World Bank).

But Africa is a demographic black box. For instance, we literally know more about births/deaths in mid-18th century Sweden than we do for much of Black Africa in the 2010s. WHO estimates of S.S.-African homicide rates exceed official stats by several factors.

GLOBAL STUDY ON HOMICIDE 2019: Homicide trends, patterns and criminal justice response (h/t The g Factor)

“Official” estimates are completely unreliable; where they do exist, the WHO estimates homicide rates to be many, many times higher than the official statistics. The average of the official statistics and the WHO statistics produces the graph on the right.” – (h/t The g Factor)

International prevalence of common crime (theft and assault). Each dot is a country in that region.
What % of people report having suffered a theft or assault in the past year in surveys.” (h/t @whyvert)

Source: van Dijk, J., Nieuwbeerta, P., & Joudo Larsen, J. (2021). Global Crime Patterns: An Analysis of Survey Data from 166 Countries Around the World, 2006–2019. Journal of Quantitative Criminology.


Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


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  2. Yellowface Anon says

    Even North Africa, which is in the same cultural sphere as West Asia but with a taint of African blood, is on average ahead of all of Asia.

  3. Central Asia Uber Alles. : )

  4. Underreporting theft is easy and happens in parts of Europe as well.

    Underreporting murder outside of areas of complete lawlessness is in a completely different league. For a police officer, dismissing a corpse is nigh impossible while dismissing a theft complaint is easy (“did you even have that bike?”).

    For now, I stick to the theory that they didn’t sell their best.

  5. Seems to be a great bifurcation about a year in the making then।।

  6. IMO, HIV stats, whether one believes them or not, should invalidate most official statistics coming out of Africa. There is also the fact that America managed to have its first census in the 1700s, and a lot of African countries cannot even manage that now.

    Incidentally, I seem to recall a lot of travel writers seeing dead bodies on the ground.

    I don’t even believe the Apartheid numbers, and they were obviously much more capable, as can be seen by the building of infrastructure.

  7. A while back, I watched the Brit comedy “Time Bandits” (1981). Did not enjoy it. But, anyway, I was surprised by how many blacks appeared in the scenes set in ancient Mycenae, which was filmed in Morocco. Not 100% certain, but I am starting to suspect that they were locals to that area.

    Doesn’t the king of Morocco look very negroid in certain light? (Or am I thinking of a older prince? Not sure…)

  8. china-russia-all-the-way says

    “Stay Safe” sections for Benin and Burkina Faso in Wikivoyage, the travel guide arm of Wikipedia.


    The best way to stay safe in Benin is to always always always be in the presence of a local person whom you can trust, such as a friend or even a hired tourist guide. They know which areas are safe and which are not, they know the prices of things so you won’t get ripped off, they speak the native languages, they know which venues sell good food that is safe for westerners to eat.

    For women, avoid travelling alone, try to be in the company of other people as much as possible. Do not travel at night alone: attacks along the beaches are frequent, and of course near hotels, nightclubs and other venues. Ignore any person who whistles at you during the night if you are alone. Benin is a peaceful country and the people are very kind and generous, but muggings and robberies occur everywhere, no matter how peaceful the place seems, so be on guard. If you are a victim of a crime, contact the Gendarme (Police) immediately.

    Homosexuality is legal in Benin, though social stigmatization might cause you problems. It’s better not to flaunt it and not to talk about it randomly with local people.

    Burkina Faso

    See the warning at the top of this page about civil unrest and extremist activity. As well, be aware of thieves in the big city. Violent assault is rare. Pickpockets and bag snatchers are something to watch out for in big cities, especially in Ouagadougou, where it is recommended not to carry a bag. The common, cheap green taxis in the big city can sometimes host thieves. Hold on to your purse, and keep your money safely tucked away. If you want to carry around a camera or other item that requires a bag, it is often safer to put it in one of the ubiquitous black “sachets” (plastic bags) that you get when you purchase something in a store, so that potential thieves will assume there’s nothing of great value inside.

    Before the unrest, female visitors rarely experienced any problems. Foreigners, especially white foreigners, frequently attracted significant attention, but the interest was mainly an attempt to sell you tourist items or overpriced goods. Indeed, the Burkinabé will show more patience and friendliness to the foreigner than to another Burkinabé, be it in a small village or in a big city.

    Generally, daily life in the towns and cities of West Africa and other parts of majority Christian Africa is filled with the danger of robberies and attacks. However, regular life in the Sahel and other Muslim parts of Africa sees much less violence. Although, Muslim parts of Africa are more prone to war and insurgency.

  9. French adopted a niglette. He can’t admit the potential error.

  10. Morocco is heavily populated by blacks. Algeria isn’t though.

  11. Is America the only country with a properly recorded blotter of negro mayhem? Both free and enslaved, Jim crowed and unleashed? Even Afrikaners couldn’t write it all down.

  12. I honestly think that a lot of functionality could be unlocked in Africa with urban passports. For example, you could exclude people with the warrior gene, or other criminal traits.

    The real difficulty would be in harnessing high IQ people, but I think there are even ways to do that. Telecommunications. Local neighborhoods (walled) with their own schools. Not PC, but on paper, it is possible to think of foreign alliances which would be mutually beneficial.

  13. [long list of dire warnings] Benin is a peaceful country and the people are very kind and generous, but muggings and robberies occur everywhere, no matter how peaceful the place seems, so be on guard.

    Lol, I guess the FBI and media would classify Benin as ‘mostly peaceful’.

    Speaking of Africa, I was told of a female FOAF tourist who went for a walk alone in Cairo and was, um, ‘mass fondled’ by an enthusiastic flash mob. Well, at least she didn’t get raped too. My conclusion: lone woman best stay at hotel.

    I would also add that no matter what your sex, as a whitey in West Africa you have a non-negligible risk of being kidnapped for ransom by muslims.

  14. I’ve read a credible explanation by an anthropologist on twitter.

    As a comparison you can look at Middle Eastern homicide rates, they are pretty low as long as the countries don’t descend into civil wars. Latin American countries have sky high homicide rates in comparison, but in Europe Middle Eastern immigrants actually commit more violent crime.

    Thing is that Middle Eastern (and maybe African?) societies are characterized by strong kinship groups that keep their members in check while this is not the case in Latin America. Therefore homicide rates are much higher in Latin America.

    However, among migrants these kinship groups are dissolved, which leads toAfrican and Middle Eastern migrants (except the selected and highly educated African and Middle Eastern migrants in the US) to commit lots of crime.


    Could that explain comparatively lower homicide rates in Africa?

  15. Athletic and Whitesplosive says

    Who says the “non-report” is at the responding officer level? The government bureacracies in charge of aggregating incidents might just be totally incompetent and/or complacent. Or maybe the government is more concerned with saving face and officially presenting as orderly and well run than they are with actually maintaining order, and are intentionally fabricating numbers.

    But even African police flatly not filing reports of homicide or doing so incorrectly isn’t that implausible.

  16. Athletic and Whitesplosive says

    Seems plausible – strong bonds of kinship where blood vendettas and revenge killings are common could depress murder rates where there is a lack of strong state enforcement.

    Then that would explain the sky high murder rates of woke metropolises; demographics with a naturally high rate of criminal violence, an intentionally lax justice system for fear mof “racism”, and very weak familial or tribal bonds to pick up the slack.

    Plausible, but there are a lot of potential aggravators that prevent getting a clear picture here, like a lack of statistics from these countries that we can have a high degree of confidence in.

  17. In America, police sometimes dumped gangland hits outside of their precincts, so other police would have to deal with them.

    1. Crime in the Middle East is prosecuted on the entire community. Can’t find someone who defrauded a bank? Put his father in jail (or at the minimum restrict the family from leaving the country). Can’t find the criminal in a group of brothers? Arrest all the brothers. At least you know you got your man. Violent crime empowers this attitude even more. And violent crimes against the state is an excuse to hand you over to Gitmo as Al-Qaeda with your whole extended family on a no-fly list for 25 years (because it’s just easier).

    In the West you sadly cannot jail the family members of criminals (immigrant or otherwise) because vaginas.

    In Africa if you knew your biological father you’re a literal no-shit minority that deserves a special award from the government.

    1. India, the Middle East, and many parts of the “Easts” have the greatest surveillance system known to man, “aunties”. Bored sexless women peeking through windows, reacting to every sound in the neighbourhood. Secret police doesn’t need to set up any teams, just go around asking house wives, spinsters and grandmas who, what, when, where and why. You’ll have to be patient as time frames are based on soap operas, however with smartphones at least you’ll get a few HD pictures.

    (similar memes include India, Morocco, etc. etc. etc.)

    In the West your neighbour can be screaming for help as he’s being stabbed to death, but it’s not your problem because that’s just how the West is. Detached from reality from 5pm to 9am next day.

    You have to own a window to look out of it. Africans don’t own windows so this is not possible.

    1. In the handful of Middle Eastern countries I’ve been to (that have recognized and/or standing governments) all of them have had armed military in the streets manning various checkpoints. In Egypt outside my hotel 2×5 men in two sandbag position (with one heavy mounted weapon) were stationed at each corner intersection. In Lebanon the national military mans checkpoints sporadically in red/white huts (until you get too far south, then you’re just told by a taxi driver you’re being watched). Jordan had uniformed police actively on display in all crowded areas (who spoke relatively decent English). But that could be the Middle East in general, we all know Israel has towers next to walls next to automated defences next to nothing so it could just be the sun heat making everyone act retarded…. the corona from the sun… you know… idiocy.

    While I’ve never been invited to a trip to India I imagine policing is just as intensive in displaying manpower on the streets. It shows a minimum, which for many people in the world is enough to maintain order on themselves (by minimum I also mean including a uniform, you can’t be just dangling your tackle box with a dress shirt on like Ethiopia or some shit).

    In the West it’s common to see a heavily armed 600lb police officer with type 9000 diabetes holding the machine gun. Try not to have a heart attack bud.

    In Africa a policeman issued a pistol pawns it off immediately for a seat on a boat to France.

  18. Seems Steve Sailer is onto something similar.


  19. In America, police sometimes dumped gangland hits outside of their precincts, so other police would have to deal with them.

    Isn’t that a felony? In theory, couldn’t cops go to prison for that?

  20. Boomthorkell says

    Very, very, very fine point about the Aunties and worldwide use of Krugovaya Poruka.

    As for India, I will personally attest to police prevalence, the bunkers you mentioned, and every single trains station having an old army man with an elephant gun or Enfield.

  21. Well, can you explain this?