The Azeris appear to have seized large chunks of southern Karabakh, including (Armenian-populated) Artsakh proper. Hopes they’d be slowed down by the mountainous terrain have proven forlorn, the advance has to the contrary accelerated ever since the Armenian lines in the south were broken.
It’s too soon to call it an Armenian collapse. The retreat was orderly, with few POWs being taken, although a lot of equipment was left behind (hopefully internally sabotaged). Even so, it’s not an exaggeration to call the situation more dire than was ever the case in 1992-94. The Armenians have incurred more than a third of the casualties they did then within the space of a month (Azeris: just 10% relative to that period), and are now in a more dire position geographically than they ever were back then.
The battle will now be on for the Lachin Corridor that connects Armenia to its Artsakh enclave. If it falls, the subsequent collapse of Stepanakert becomes a matter of time.
Vladimir Putin says there have been close to 5,000 people killed in the latest fighting over Nagorno Karabakh. More than 2,000 victims on each side, according to his information.
— Sarah Rainsford (@sarahrainsford) October 22, 2020
This would make Armenian casualties 2-2.5x as high as official numbers (currently 927), with the Azeris incurring – at worst – less than 50% more dead than the Armenians, whereas I had pegged the differential at 50-100%.
But sadly, Putin’s numbers are probably more accurate.
Incidentally, this also suggests Armenians suffering losses at 2.5x the rate of Britain in WW1 relative to population per unit time. This is more like Wehrmacht over the course of WW2 territory.
Can Russia intervene?
Well, while as I argued it is in Russia’s interests to do everything (non-militarily) it reasonably can to avoid the complete success of Azerbaijan’s “Operation Storm”, it is also in practice constricted by Artsakh’s unrecognized international status, by its own relations with Azerbaijan, as well as the domestic situation.
Here’s one oft-neglected consideration: Russia did not openly intervene even for the sake of ethnic Russians in the Donbass. For Putin to interfere that bluntly in Karabakh – as many of the same ethnoliberals at Echo of Moscow who rejoiced over the Odessa pogroms are now demanding of him – would thus be to spit in the faces of Russians left to their fates in Odessa, in Mariupol, and to a large extent in the Donbass itself.
https://twitter.com/KhersonFrom/status/1318569034972078080
Indeed, Donbass-like supplies and diplomatic support is the most that Armenians in Artsakh can expect from Russia – the rest is on them and on Armenia. But, sadly, it seems they have been too outclassed by the Azeri armed forces for that to even matter.
Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.
If you are new to my work, start here.
One has to hand it to the Azeris. It is now fairly clear that they have been planning this for at least a decade and patiently waiting for the right time to strike.
They have covered all their bases their investment in drone warfare and tactics,their diplomatic overtures to Israel,Russia and Turkey and their PR campaign masking their aggression (perfectly timed and launched when other major interventionist powers are occupied with covid 19 and national elections) as a conflict in which ‘both sides have committed crimes and have legitimate grievances’
I don’t like to see Muslim countries win wars but this war is an eye opener in just how much bearing elite leadership IQ and a long term strategic vision (which is more likely when the elite dont have to worry about governing with the ‘consent’ of a 2 digit IQ average voter) is in deciding the fates of nations.
Regarding ww2 loss comparisons, Germany had 27x as many people as Armenia (80m vs 3m) and German forces suffered 3.6 million deaths between June 1941 – May 1945, an average of 77,000 a month, for Armenia the equivalent would be 2,800 per month, if Putin’s figures about 2,000 dead Armenians were right, and these figures were likely based off losses up to the 21st of October or 25 days of fighting, the Armenians on a monthly basis are close to matching German monthly losses.
Armenian losses are already higher than German monthly losses relative to population in the 2nd half of 1941 or the whole of 1942 and are running at the same level as German losses in 1943.
Of course Armenia has an older age structure vs 1940’s Germany and it is still men of the same age dying so relative to men in their 20’s, Armenian losses are even more extreme than they look vs WW2 Germany.
Armenia should have accepted the Lavrov plan earlier this year, where they would have given 5 districts of Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan in a phased approach, in exchange for peace agreement, and Russian peacekeepers patrolling of border.
Some of the main Russian soldiers were supposed to patrol the territories (Southern border with Iran), that now Azerbaijan has already captured. So Azerbaijan has already pre-empted part of the Lavrov plan, and the end result for Armenia will now be worse than accepting of Lavrov’s plan.
Emigration of young people from Armenia to the Russian Federation, is vast: for a country with only 3 million people- a large part of the population is emptying into Russia.
https://i.imgur.com/cGvDgqG.png
Lavrov’s plan would have ensured Russian peacekeepers, and Armenia would still have maintained some parts of Nagorno Karabakh. In addition, there wouldn’t be loss of thousands of lives, and Turkish power projection.
Why are they having so much trouble with drones? Why are they are much harder to deal with, compared to say Hinds, or A-1 Skyraiders?
Azerbaijan’s multi-vector diplomatic and military preparation was one of the least secret things in politics.
Azerbaijan parade in Baku, their military technology every year – if you watch the Baku military parade, you can see they have bought recently Israeli, Russian and Turkish and weapons systems of a generation more advanced than many that Armenia has.
It doesn’t require some inference of “Chekhov’s gun”. For five years, they have been parading their shiny new weapons, while Aliev saying that they were going to use them if there wasn’t a peace agreement.
https://twitter.com/wwwmodgovaz/status/1319624496509276160
In retrospect, we look at Lavrov’s plan, and the main mistake has been that Pashinyan has rejected it, as it only required Armenia to give part (5 districts) of Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan, and there would have been a guarantee of Russian peacekeepers on the border.
If Lavrov’s plan was successful, all these people would not be killed, and the end result would have been territorially better for Armenia, better for Russia, and possibly even preferable for Azerbaijan (as they also could have saved their casualties). Only worse would have been accepting Lavrov’s plan, for the multinational weapons sales industries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Russia#:~:text=Immigration%20to%20Russia%20is%20an,territory%20of%20the%20Russian%20Federation.&text=Under%20current%20law%2C%20the%20citizenship,an%20exam%20in%20Russian%20language.
This data from Rosstat showed net migration of 35,000 Armenians to Russia in 2019, for a population of 3 million that is massive, that is like 1.7 million Russians emigrating or 4 million Americans to another country.
Looks like both sides want to end this war w/o losing face. You can say that both are clutching at straws: officials from Armenia and Azerbaijan went to Russia, US, France, Germany, etc., with pleas to help resolve the crisis. Karabakh president even sent a fairly obsequious letter to Putin after Valdai forum, asking to intervene.
Problem is, the US or any of its vassals, including France and Germany, won’t do more than raise stink. Stink won’t stop anyone, neither Armenians, nor Azeris and their Turkish supporters. In fact, imperial stink lost its power to influence anyone, except worthless and shameless puppet governments getting instructions from the State Department. Russia could have actually intervened in a meaningful way, but I am not sure Putin wants to do it at this point. As AK rightly says, the majority of Russians do not want Russia to take sides. Putin (unlike “democratic” Western leaders) always tries not to go against prevailing feelings of the populace. Armenians succeeded in destroying the sympathy of Russians, Azeris never had much of it. Still, the conflict must end somehow, neither side has stomach and wherewithal for a protracted bloody war.
“…and possibly even preferable for Azerbaijan (as they also could have saved their casualties)…”
Let’s not kid ourselves the present likely outcome is the best possible result for Azerbaijan.
Not only do they get a comprehensive victory but the present regime which has proved itself to be the best Azerbaijan can produce will gain popular legitimacy and stay in power for the next 20 years which is good because the next 20 years will be the most challenging for oil exporting nations.
This is the number of Armenians receiving a Russian citizenship.
Under the Eurasian economic union, there is an open border, with free labour movement, between Russia-Armenia (no work permit is required to live and work in Russia). A proportion of Armenians in Russia apply for citizenship after they were living in Russia for years.
The movement of Armenians into Russia (although a lot return to Armenia – as it is an open border with free flow of labour back and forwards) is much higher than the number of Armenians who receive Russian citizenship each year.
When we compare losses with WW II Germany, then we must remind that in the first month , WW II size losses were irrelevant to Germans. It was only late 1943 when luck of manpower began seriously hurt Germany.
So, when we count only losses in manpower, both sides can fight for years.
Armenia’s net migration rate is -2 per 1000 people, not really that much compared to countries like the Philippines, Cambodia, or Burma.
I mentioned this in a previous article. The Azeris have been planning this for years with all the defence spending and diplomatic overtures to other countries. I know Pashinyan has only been in power for two years, but I really think that since 2018, he has given Armenians a sense of security that never existed. Most Armenians were not expecting this to go longer than a few days.
Just is not just Azeri victory, but Armenian failure as well. It’s like they forgot about the neighborhood they’re living in. Their head of Security Council was a 29 year old Soros boy.
From a purely geopolitical Russian point of view – taking all the emotion/false morality about it – it would seem the fall (or liberation depending on viewpoint) of an unrecognized statelet shouldn’t worry it too much. Armenia itself, which has been playing a double game with Russia (as have all the former SSRs), has not recognized Karabakh and so having it fall to Azerbaijan is its own battle/folly.
It seems clear that the Kremlin seems to be playing this line – it’s not part of its redlines as for example South Ossetia or an armed take over of the Donbass would be.
While Turkey may have seen as prevailing and may encourage even more adventurism from Erdogan, behind the scenes one would presume the Kremlin has made it clear where the lines are – and perhaps even come to an understanding in places like Syria where Russia’s geopolitical interests are more acute.
Would have the public in the 2 countries agreed with the Lavrov plan?
Perhaps Lukashenko is envying Aliev in a cynical way, as the latter has a war to enforce his legitimacy.
And Erdogan is benefiting to some extent in terms of popularity and influence, while Israel had been receiving the largest financial reward in terms of weapons exports, during the buildup to this conflict.
Prior to 2015, 85% of Azerbaijan’s weapons were purchased from Russia.
However, – since 2015 – Israel has now reached to 60% of Azerbaijan’s weapon purchases, Russia displaced to only 31%, Turkey was only at 3,2% in 2019.
https://i.imgur.com/knJMwpe.jpg
Although in 2020, probably Turkey will displace Israel, and be in the first position.
–
Armenia was panicking in recent years, when they should have accepted Lavrov’s plan. Pashinyan seems to have been trying to multi-vector between Russia and NATO.
But Turkey is NATO member – so Armenia is unlikely to be able to join NATO (even if they exit ODKB), as Turkey would veto their application.
Germans lost more soldiers by capitulation or wounding than by combat deaths, although before 1943 the amount of German PoWs was negligible.
Your comparison to Donbass ignores Putin went balls deep for Assad and has been fighting for Haftar in Libya against internationally recognized Libyan government. In what universe are Libya and Syria more strategically important for Russia than Caucasus region?
Judging by Iranian ability to take down Israeli loitering drones and Russia’s ability to take over American drones previously, Russia could surely jam Turkish drones and establish balance over night. It would be a very cheap intervention that would prevent its ally from collapsing and it would let everyone know there are limits to Russian patience.
If Russia lets NK collapse, Ukraine will be emboldened and attack on Donbass will follow shortly. When that happens, Russia will have to decide whether to let it collapse or enter into conflict with western darling, compounding all its other problems stemminh from the open conflict with the West.
Armenia is enjoying these limits right now.
Haftar is backed by a diverse group of countries, including France and UAE, and it is actually UAE that pays for Wagner services in Libya and provides Russian-made air-defences for Haftar’s army. Libya for Russia has been a successful business venture with no real downside.
By contrast, antagonizing Azerbaijan would be bad for Russian energy companies, that have stakes in Azeri oil&gas projects. Russia has nothing to gain by taking the side of Armenia in this conflict, and the last thing Russia wants is to reward Pashinyan’s shitty behavior.
EU used to work on a consensus basis, until losers acceded and forgot to mind their station. There’s nothing stopping US from rewriting to rules of NATO, so that majority votes are enough and / or “countries with significant deviations from democracy” lose their vote. After all, EU rich members are way more honest compared to the US, when it comes to modifying treaties or walking away from them while pretending others are still bound.
Christian Broadcast Network, the main television network of evangelical America, tilts in favor of Azerbaijan. CBN interviewed Azeri Ambassador in Washington with not too difficult questions, giving him ample opportunity to share Azeri party line. Israel is referenced often by interviewer and Azeri Ambassador steers answers to show support for Israel.
Mainline Christians while not backing Azerbaijan are silent and lack any passion towards Armenia.
It has never hit me like this that American Christians are utterly lacking the sense of belonging to a worldwide ummah.
They have another master than Christ. Truly an achievement without parallel in history, Christian golems.
I fear that after losing Karabakh, Armenia will not have any reasons to continue their alliance with Russia, and whole Transcaucasia could become even more troublesome stronghold of anti Russian and Iranian activity. Armenians could feel betrayed by Russia, no matter how justified that feeling is. Even worse is that the door to Central Asia would be open. Because currently countries there have just practically two options: Russia and China.
Even in bad scenarios, in the aftermath Armenia will hold on to some part of the disputed territory and need Russia as a protector due to the high risk of a third war?
China has no interest in hegemony in Central Asia because it means alienating Russia. What’s the point of holding Central Asia if it’s done at the expense of weakening the partnership with Russia?
Armenians have blocked the idea that their actions have played a role in sapping the motivation of Russians to protect them. There is some kind of abnormal psychological phenomenon affecting the thought process.
https://armenianweekly.com/2020/10/16/fighting-to-survive-a-view-from-stepanakert/
Two Congressional Republicans + Steve King and 50 something Democrats are calling for sanctions to be imposed on Azerbaijan to halt the “perpetual aggression”.
Democrats in Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania should point out to Armenians that they are clearly the better choice for helping Armenia if in the White House.
Baku has several buildings that wikipedia reports cost more than $300 million, and have high value people and equipment and records inside.
Armenia has ballistic missiles.
Why not unload right now at those skyscrapers, plus maybe dams? The Azeris are blasting civilian targets in Stepanakert, so it seems like fair play.
https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/armenia-threatens-azerbaijan-with-use-of-ballistic-missiles-2020-9-28-45/
Thats what I meant, China and Russia are working harmoniously in Central Asia, China knows that political influence there belongs to Russia and is just economically involved there. Those who argue otherwise forget that Kazakhstan and Kyrgysia belong to Eurasian Union and CSTO and China has never protested the Central Asian countries integration with Russia or showed any signs of uncomfortability with such progress.
But yes Armenians will feel utterly betrayed after this and one should not underestimate such things in the longer run.
One thing is sure, never trust in politics Anatolian “turks” or Transcaucasian “tatars.” Arabs, Persians, Greeks, Slavs all can agree on this, oh not forgetting the Kurds and Armenians. Russia should just be a reliable business partner, but nothing more.
Mongols have had two times in history when they interacted with the Ottomans or their forefathers. First time in the 13th Century when they crushed the Seljuk Sultanate of Rum multiple times and gave Byzantines some time to breath. Which Byzantines used wisely by conquering the Cpole in the 1265 and the Byzantine emperor even gave her daughter Mary as wife to the Mongol Khan, later when Marys husband died she returned to Cpole and build a church, which is still known by the name of St Mary of the Mongols, btw the only Orthodox Church in Cpole that survives from Byzantine times and is still owned and used continuously by Christians.
Second time when Tamerlan almost completely crushed the Ottoman empire in 15th century and even captured the Sultan. Yes the Mongol identity was still strong among the elites of the Goldern Horde and Timurid Khanate in the early 15th century. Thats the story of historical Altaic frienship between the Anatolians and Mongols.
Of course Mongol invasion of Rus was quite a catastrophy for the Eastern Slavs and Mongols did raid Balkans, so Im not whitewashing, just trying to give a balanced view of the past.
Azerbaijan-Russia relationship will be viewed as more important to appease, than Armenia-Russia relationship. This is because of the economic investment, and the fact Azerbaijan has multi-vector relations, while Armenia is secure as a mono-vector ally of Russia despite its leadership’s failed attempts to becomes friends with NATO.
Armenia cannot exit the Russian sphere. Actually, will be more dependent on Russia after this conflict, than they were before it. Only Russia can protect Armenia from Azerbaijan establishing a corridor to Nakhchivan.
Armenia is only not going to lose the Southern part of its territory, because Russia protects it.
Armenia won’t be able to do any multi-vector external policy, as NATO is closed to them – Turkey is NATO member. Iran is also closed to them – 1/4 of Iranian citizens are Azeris (so Iran has to be very delicate with Azerbaijan). Armenia are structurally dependent on Russia, as they have no other options for their defense.
With Lavrov’s plan, the territorial result would be not much worse for Armenia than it already is on the battlefield, and nobody would have been killed.
Armenia, and even now Azerbaijan, have below replacement fertility rates, and high emigration of their young people. So sacrificing soldiers for mostly unpopulated mountains is not even very useful from a cynical national interest position. Even now, they should stop fighting and go to compromise on the peace talks.
Armenia is getting close to taking the ultimate crown of “worst modern war fighter ever” from Israel.
Israel still holds it for being unable to dislodge ragtag militias from quaint hills (vs NK mountains) on the border of Lebanon in 2006 with godlike air supremacy and an AO that is a fraction of that Armenia has to deal with (fighting a non-state entity as opposed to Armenia fighting a no-shit oil state). But still….
Armenia is the defender, has mountainous terrain and was given a decade+ to shore up their defenses. And now they couldn’t even inflict 3 to 1 losses on Azerbaijan (AGAINST FUCKING MOUNTAINOUS ASSAULTS)? I guess the black pajama factory went out of business in Armenia….
Armenia is one debacle away from pretty much looking like the biggest clown in war history. Not a good look Armenia. Not a good look at all.
Karlin is right, Russia won’t come to the rescue if it didn’t rescue vodka-blooded Russians in Donbass. Syria was not a rescue. Syria was a geopolitical calculated move against Western encroachment, the variables were just right for Russia to act overtly over there. Plant a seed that will harbor fruit 15-25 years from now at very (VERY) little cost. It’s also a good check against Israel; it’s not lost the damage Israelis have done to America. They enjoy the same freedoms in Russia so having a military base near Israel sends a signal that ruining Russia like America isn’t going to be tolerate with 3 billion dollars of credit annually (“we can just prop up the assholes around you with weapons, and not the monkey-models we gave them in the 60s and 70s”).
Russia did act in Ukraine, last I check Crimea is in Russian hands. Russia does not need to do things that are not good for Russia proper. A nation that threw 1+ million conscripts at the Wehrmacht to their death for Moscow is not a nation that is going to give two shits if Russian speakers are getting slaughtered somewhere. Sorry…. it’s just the way it is. You queers harp about “history is a good indicator” so what’s the problem?
Besides what’s the point of Russia acting in the caucuses? So more Russians die for people who don’t give two squirrel-farts about Russia? What is it Armenia does for Russia? At least Baku has oil. That buys smiles no matter where you go on the planet but what does Armenia have? Shitty fighters? Even shittier commanders? Women who enjoy disgusting levels of plastic surgery? Armenian kebabs?
“They contributed to science and culture”, yeah well like Jews I’m sure it’s primarily plagiarism and theft built on a system designed by them for them (Zuckerberg stealing idea from the Winklevoss brothers; the bandwagon jumping to defend Einsteins plagiarism; the Jews of Apple basically selling overpriced self-obsolescent old-tech and making it successful due to connections/advertising/perception management/targeting low-IQ plebs, etc. etc. Jews and plagiarism/IP theft go hand-in-hand, it extends the whole perception management thing that so many low IQers lap up without critical analysis).
I don’t think anyone mentioned that if Azerbaijan wins Israel will basically get a new launchpad for massive drone attacks into Iran. I mean shit Israel floated striking Iran by having civilian-disguised air refuel planes launched from Azerbaijan to meet Israeli fighters. So why not use this newly-acquired NK region as some new drone base for Israel, parked & hidden at the borders of Iran. Cold storage just waiting to be launched, no man-on-the-ground required. Israel being such a friendly weapons supplier and all, who knows what kind of under table agreements Israel has with Azerbaijan.
Pretty big-brained for Israel if this ends up happening, gotta give it props for always trying.
They are cheaper to buy and operate, can be produced in huge numbers (especially the smaller ones), are smaller and therefore harder to detect and shoot down, and if shot down no one dies or is captured, so all this allows for use in swarms to saturate defences. Add to this that Armenia doesn’t have modern SHORAD (short range air defence) whic is the most effective to destroy drones (like Russia has in Hmeymmin, and has shot already hundreds of small drones that often try to attack the base).
It seems like a lot of the Azerbaijan strikes are using a guided artillery – and the drone is used to target the guided artillery.
You can often see shells coming across from side.
https://twitter.com/cavidaga/status/1319724256805216261
LMAO, what a bizarre post.
I agree that Russia getting directly involved would not be a good idea, since Artsakh(Karabakh) is a small piece of territory and direct military intervention would simply cause the rest of the world to chimp out at Russia like it did in 2014 with the Crimea situation.
However, claiming that Armenia has shitty fighters when it has been fighting Azerbaijan, an oil producing country that has:
1) Outspent Armenia militarily by BILLIONS
2) Has Turkish military advisors and supplies
3) An endless supply of Israeli weaponry
4) Access to Georgian airspace for 3 weeks now
5) An international “community” that has done virtually nothing to restrain Azeris from bombing Armenian civilian targets while news outlets chimped out over a few strikes on Ganja
6) The help of thousands of Syrian mercenaries, which has been proven by multiple intelligence agencies.
Honestly, the fact that Artsakh hasn’t collapsed already after three weeks of Blitzkrieg tactics proves the opposite, that Azeri soldiers are murderously incompetent and Armenians can hold their own better than most people think.
They call that “lack of respect for the enemy”.
American “Christians” are a bunch of cucks and nobody in their right mind would expect them to show concern for Armenians. They generally do the opposite and support the Muslims for reasons we all are aware of…
Libya is falling apart so it’s unlikely to yield any serious cash. Syria, the bigger interventions of the two, is a net cost and gives Russia control over a destroyed society that will needs its military support perpetually.
If Pashinyan is the issue, replace him or wait for him to fall – maybe let Azeris take some more territory. But letting entire NK collapse will not be worth the benefit of giving Armenians a lesson.
What will Azeris do about Russian intervention? They will be a firm Turkish ally no matter what after this and will likely reduce their ties with Russia no matter what once they get what they need and Russia’s passivity is not needed anymore.
Most importantly, this will invite Ukrainian attack on Donbass. If Russia couldn’t be bothered to do some basic jamming for its allies in NK, why would Ukrainians expect it to step in to save Donbass and interevene in a much costlier conflict?
Armenians are fighting for their land, they have everything to lose so they will fight to the bitter end. The azerbaijanis are not fighting for their survival, and they have a limited amount of shiny jew toys to use before they have to rely on their soldiers. The fact that turkey offered to intervene if azerbaijan asks for it means several things. The most pertinent for this discussion is that it shows ankara, who is the one running the war – not the azerbaijani general staff – is worried about the morale and quality of the azerbaijani soldier and military. As another commentator correctly pointed out, the regime in baku has invested billions of euros over the past 15 plus years into the military and yet still can not achieve a decisive victory. Is azerbaijan able to protect Ganja/Ganzakh? What about the reservoir at mingecevir? Are they prepared for a counter-attack?
Russia knows who is directing this war and that they desire Russia to get caught up in a quagmire. Therefore the Russians continue to seek a diplomatic solution. But there is no question which side official Moscow is helping with arms and intelligence. So ask yourself, why would Russia fight a war that its enemies design and dictate? It would not unless there is no other option. Instead, Russia will pick and choose the time and place if war is the only option. For now covert support to the Armenians is working.
Your fluffy novel bores me son. You’re surprised a mountainous conflict zone with an AO larger than 3000km2 (don’t quote me, just eyeing it) took three weeks+? Ok.
Have you ever driven up and down a mountain on a paved civilian road in a non-combat situation? It takes fucking hours.
I can only imagine moving in a military environment taking appropriately longer (moving AA batteries, CASEVAC, causality collection points, fuels, munitions, trucking reinforcements, traffic controllers, counter battery, overwatch units, covering units, logistics, so on so on so on). Yes it’s slower than the private/commercial sector.
I bring Israel to highlight military incompetence. To give people examples to compare. Israel and Azerbaijan both are assaulting forces in their respective wars. For Israel the AO was a 120km~ hilly border. For Azeribajan its this significantly larger mountainous NK area.
Hezbollah is a non-state entity labelled a terrorist organization by nearly the entire international community. Embargoed, prosecuted, unrecognized, forbidden to openly trade with anyone (no real economy). Up against a wealthy, internationally recognized, hypermilitary technological power Israel.
This literal dindu-nuffin faction managed to repel the retarded-rich air supremacy IDF on the quaint heights of Lebanon (not no real big-balls mountains like we’re seeing between the war of the Double As). IDF gains in 3 weeks were, to put it mildly, weak titty.
By your logic that’s a divine victory for Hezbollah. I assure its not.
Now let’s look at shit-for-brains Armenia. A literal nation state, recognized by the international community, with a REAL economy, a REAL military, and REAL weapons (not puny toy rockets but anti-air batteries, tanks, a real engineering corp, a non-paper air force….). Armenia has a REAL contested region. Does it build underground tunnels? No. Does it devise a system to transport supplies and reinforcements throughout the AO? No. Does Armenia frustrate Azeri forces OODA loop? No. Does Armenia locate command/control/communication nodes and fire tactical ballistic missiles at them? No.
What does Armenia do? They’re still parking tanks in trenches like clowns. I mean shit at this stage you should be burying them in defensive positions. Every tank should only have its turret visible from the ground inflicting retarded-levels of causalities on Azeri forces before it’s rooted out. No no. Not for Armenia. It still thinks it’s going to drive those tanks down hill into Azerbaijan with magic.
Azerbaijan on the other hand manages to interfere with Armenia ability to Observe, Orient, Decide and Act. Armenia deploys a company of infantry for reinforcements to only get wiped out 45 minutes later by MLRS artillery. Armenia digs a nice new line of trenches, they get harassed by drones. Clearly Armenian command is having trouble gauging the ground because every time it thinks it’s observing something or it tries to orient itself Azerbaijan, through drunk luck, manages to interfere again re shifting the situation.
Again Armenia is the defender, the home team should have a stronger grasp of command and control. Except in this case of epic fail.
ONLY three weeks? Shame on you Armenia. In the mountains too. AS DEFENDER it should be taking MONTHS for those gains. And the cherry on top…. inflicted equal causalities. Jesus fucking Christ…. with all those variables in favor of Armenia it couldn’t even make Azerbaijan pay for its insolence. How embarrassing.
Still regurgitating Turkbaijani propaganda I see, Türkoğlu , Dmitry (Dmitry? really?).
Or is Jewishoğlu, Dmitry.
{Military personnel and armored vehicles of the enemy getting ready for redeployment were destroyed.}
Suuure, Azerbaijan (sic) MOD manufactured video is certainly proof of Turks having supposedly destroyed Armenians.
Here is a questions for you and all the other Turkophile shills cheering supposed Armenian defeats: if Turkbaijanis are winning, why is it that war criminal Aliyev refuses to publicize the human losses of Azerbaijan military ? Armenian MOD regularly publish Armenian losses and their names.
Aliyev is afraid to publicize their losses, because they are so horrendous: he is afraid the mobs will come for his head.
Max Payne, you really ought to take the time to actually study the geography where Azerbaijan has *claimed to have military successes.
It is not mountainous terrain you speak of, rather the open plains outside of Artsakh proper, that was occupied by Armenians to create a buffer zone. The Azeris have not managed to gain any traction into Artsakh proper.
For example, along the Iranian border, where the terrain offers little protection due to barren plains, even though there are hilly outcrops that are also barren.
Armenians attempting to put up a fight in barren terrain is a lost cause. Too open and Azerbaijani/Turkish air and artillery support simply too great.
Give us your spiel when the Azeris actually manage to make traction into Artsakh proper with dense forest mountainous outcrop. Lets see how these great Azeri warriors (with Syrian, Paki and Afghani imports) fare where they have no viable air support through endless hordes of drones.
{Now let’s look at shit-for-brains …..}
Stop talking about yourself.
Clearly you know nothing about Armenia’s or Artsakh’s military, or what’s going oon there.
If you are so smart, tell me this: to date, how many Armenian KIA; how many Azerbaijani (sic) and Turk special forces and Syrian ISIS terrorists KIA?
Again, nothing of substance from you.
Hezbollah before 2006 had a lot of support from Syria and Iran. When Israel failed to do anything in 2006, the NATO powers decided to spend the net 14 years demonizing and sanctioning them. A war now would not be in Hezbollah’s favour.
As far as Armenia goes, yes, I already addressed the poorly planned defence on the part of Armenia’s military leadership. The fact is however, Azerbaijan’s superior army, as far as weapons possession goes, has only taken a small part of Karabakh, a country only slightly bigger than Lebanon with a population of 150,000. The tactical retreat performed by the Armenians is the reason why Azerbaijan has captured that much territory. The Azeris have patted themselves on the back for the little sandbox sized area they have “conquered” so far, LOL.
I don’t know how this will end, but I had to correct that nonsense about Armenia’s soldiers being “shitty”.
{Why not unload right now at those skyscrapers,..}
What for ?
Armenia’s and Artsakh’s military leadership know what they are doing.
Armenia does not have an unlimited inventory of ballistic missiles.
Those used to destroy military targets, like the Ganja/Ganzag airport.
The idea is to destroy Azerbaijan’s military capability.
{ plus maybe dams? }
Mingachevir Dam and its power station would definitely be on the target list.
But it is too early now to escalate to that level.
Armenians of Artsakh can also completely cut off 70%-80% of Azerbaijan’s drinking water supply: that might also come at some point, if the war goes on
{ The Azeris are blasting civilian targets in Stepanakert,….}
Yes they are: war criminal Turkbaijanis, having been checkmated on the battlefield, in desperation are bombing civilian targets in Artsakh, hoping to break the will of the population.
Will never work: during the 1991-1994 war Stepanakert was completely surround for 7 months and the Caspian Turk war criminals were bombing everything in the city. 1,000s of civilians were killed by the nomad savages. Artsakhtsi spirit never broke.
Murdering Armenian civilians will strengthen every Armenian’s resolve to do everything in our power to wipe out the invaders.
Would Azerbaijan have actually accepted the Lavrov Plan, though? After all, it takes two to tango!
For a peace plan (such as the Lavrov Plan) to be effective, though, BOTH sides would have actually needed to accept it. What exactly would have been the incentive for Azerbaijan to accept it when they would think that they could simply “liberate” all of Nagorno-Karabakh by force?
If Ukraine attempts an attack on the Donbass (“Operation Horlivka Storm” or whatever), then Russia is likely to DIRECTLY militarily intervene on the Donbass’s side and very possibly to expel Ukraine from ALL of the Donbass. Heck, even Russia taking Kharkiv is not completely out of the question, though it probably is unlikely due to the sheer number of casualties that would be required to do this on Russia’s part. Kharkiv is a giant city, after all–something like 1.5 million people in total!
Aside from the ethnic Armenians – it seems Anatoly Karlin, Russian liberals, Macron, Solovyov, American Jewish Democrat politicians (who have a Armenian voters?), are supporting Armenia.
https://twitter.com/RepAdamSchiff/status/1319723293973368832
I don’t know where you get this idea that Jews support Armenians. We have tried for centuries to befriend them, and they shun us every single time. Most genocide denialism is funded by Jews, both liberal and conservative, all across the planet.
Azerbaijan has successfully managed to convince the world that Armenians are like the Nazis. The Jews have played along with this in order to make an ally in the region for their future plans against Iran.
American Christians or better known as “born again Christians” and “evangelicals” will support whatever outcome is in the interests of the state of Israel. They have utter contempt for Apostolic Christians, who they view as lost in tradition.
Their entire Christian belief is based upon Israel and the Israeli people being God’s people and that Christians should work blindingly towards any outcome that is in the interest of Israel or those who support Israel.
Hence why we seen these same American Christians support the wholesale murder of Syrian Christians because Israel is opposed to Syria and Iran.
On another note, I find it hilarious that Russian nationalists continue to regurgitate the same photo supposedly from a protest in Yerevan, with 2-3 idiots holding placards and smearing the entire Armenian populous as anti-Russian.
Should Armenians start posting examples from Moscow protests as generalise the entire Russian population? Every country has these deluded liberal clowns in varying quantities. Such generalisations are agenda driven. The Armenian protests were largely due to economical and corruption concerns, not Russia’s place in Armenia.
I understand Russian nationalists are trying to enforce their position against any intervention from Russia in the conflict, however, no need to stoop so low. Armenians have not asked for Russian boots on the ground in Artsakh and never will – why should Russian youth die for a conflict that doesn’t concern them?
There should however be one redline for Russia and that is any attempt to link Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and therefore directly to Turkey. That would mean Erdogan would have a direct land route to channel his Sunni Salafi Jihadi horde to the Russian border.
Are you Armenian yourself? If you are Armenian, and believe that your side is winning, then rather than wasting your caucasian hothead arguing with strangers over the keyboard, shouldn’t you logically go back to your country to fight with your brown cousins?
To be honest though, I hope Armenians don’t do this. I hope that Armenian would repatriate to Armenia – not to waste their life for war, but to rebuild their economy, demography and society.
Objectively, there is sadness that Armenia is sending its young people to die, to likely attain the same loss of territory, they would have achieved from accepting the Lavrov plan – meanwhile the country depopulates and is not in any situation that could justify having its young people killed for YouTube videos.
Even national power of Azerbaijan (which is now at the Lachin corridor and at the logistical jugular of Armenian forces therefore), aside from the individual losses, is going to be net loser from this conflict, as they also have the problem of emigration and below replacement fertility rate, and shouldn’t sacrifice their young men for some mountains. It would have been better to accept Lavrov’s plan, even in Azerbaijan, let alone in Armenia.
Azerbaijan could have tried to present Lavrov plan to their public as a victory, as they would return a significant part of Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan. In addition, there would be significant benefits for both sides, especially economically.
Russia also would plant peacekeeping soldiers on the agreed new borders, to offer guarantee.
Peace agreement would be phased, and include opening trade between the two countries, and perhaps there would be mutual tourism and some kind of reconciliation (currently the enmity between the nationalities is something very extreme).
It would have achieved this without any loss of soldiers’ lives, which in small countries with below replacement fertility rates, and emigration problems (both Armenia and Azerbaijan, although worse in Armenia) – it should have been even more of priority to avoid loss of young men, than it should be anyway.
From the Armenian side, it would have required more compromise and modesty, as they would be giving “land for peace”. But it would have been wisdom.
When you look at the discussions in April, it looks quite like a lack of realism:
https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/russia-voices-support-for-phased-solution-to-nagorno-karabakh-conflict-2020-4-23-31/
“Caucasian hothead”, LMAO I really don’t see why you’re still commenting on this article. You clearly just want to fling insults from behind a keyboard. Have a good evening, troll.
Yes, hence my description of them as cucks. Jerry Fallwell Jr. is a fitting culmination for that whole contemptible movement.
You may be right, but it’s not in Russia’s interest for that to happen as it would further strain relations with the West and invite more sanctions. Stepping in now and stomping Azeris, my preferred course of action, would send the message to everyone that in Russia’s neighborhood neither NATO nor Turkey can help you much if you go against Russia.
Sure if I was talking in the Caucasus, instead of from safely behind keyboard (drinking a cup of tea), I would probably right now be stabbed and bleeding in a small street with a knife in my stomach. I should have remembered to be polite and tactful – I am talking about the Caucasus. Say one wrong word, and twenty people will jump at you from behind.
Jokes aside, when we look at regional wars in the Caucasus, we should mention a contributing regional characteristic of the Caucasians – “hotheads”.
Neither side could compromise enough in the preceding decades. The Russian government has cynical self-interest in weapons sales that emerge from the conflict, but still has offered years of mediation, reconciliation, and even going to plant peacekeepers to guarantee future safety of the peace between the two peoples – who for cultural similarity should have viewing each other as brotherly people rather than enemies.
This also might sound trivial, but Lavrov, who developed the peace plan for Armenia-Azerbaijan, is himself is from Armenian origin (although only half-Armenian, and also his son in law and grandchildren are Israelis) . I don’t think Lavrov is usually competent – but I don’t think Lavrov’s plan was from a position of bias, and it’s retrospectively clear his peace plan should have been accepted.
For an absolutely brilliant and absolutely unique discussion and analysis of this war see:
Dissident Mag video featuring the incomparable Jazzhands McFeels:
“Unibrow Uprising: The Finkery of Armenia and Azerbaijan”
http://dissident-mag.com/2020/10/23/unibrow-uprising-the-finkery-of-armenia-and-azerbaijan/
{Vladimir Putin says there have been close to 5,000 people killed in the latest fighting over Nagorno Karabakh. More than 2,000 victims on each side, according to his information.}
{But sadly, Putin’s numbers are probably more accurate.}
There is no doubt that Putin has fairly accurate idea – through is excellent intelligence services – of the real number of KIA on each side. There is also no doubt he would NEVER reveal those numbers publicly.
Armenian KIA were 900 as of yesterday.
Armenia’s MOD regularly publishes the names and numbers of Armenian KIA.
It would be impossible to hide the supposed ‘2,000’ KIA on Armenian side, if it were true.
There is no internet censorship or restrictions in Armenia at present.
With a relatively small population (i.e. “everybody knows everybody else”), it would be very easy to debunk Armenia’s MOD, if they were lying about the numbers.
Azerbaijan has fully clamped down on information dissemination in Azerbaijan.
The number of their KIA is supposedly a military secret.
Why?
I’ll ask the same question again: if Aliyev is winning so handsomely, why is the number of their KIA kept secret by him? What is he afraid of?
No, they have taken a piece of southern Artsakh proper:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1f/QarabaghWarMap%282020%29.svg/1280px-QarabaghWarMap%282020%29.svg.png
The case of Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh differs in no essential manner from those of the other three so-called frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union: Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniester. Russia has peacekeeping troops in all three of the latter and went to war with Georgia when it invaded South Ossetia in 2008.
Karabakh was an autonomous oblast (province) at the time of the dissolution of the USSR. It had
-and still has – every right not to be incorporated into an expansionist, pan-Turkic Azerbaijan.
This article is a naked apology for Baku’s final solution to the Karabakh “problem”; which is to say ethnocide, genocide.
The author bears the same moral culpability for the latter as the venal, unprincipled Putin administration, which has sacrificed the people of Karabakh to its desire to sell more advanced weaponry to Azerbaijan,
You’re absolutely correct about the Evangelicals. They have absolutely no concerns about Christians being exterminated in Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Pakistan, Kosovo, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, etc. No concern about an entire Christian people like the Armenians being massacred. But let Bibi Netanyahu have heartburn and they’re on their knees wailing and gnashing their teeth. I know, I have several in my family. I have friends who are atheists and Muslims who are concerned about the Armenians in Karabakh – but Christians as a whole and Evangelicals in particular don’t care at all. The latter are followers of the gospel of Mammon-worshiping charlatans Hal Lindsey and Tim LaHaye for whom Russia is “Gog/Magog” and the Anti-Christ.
I knew this war would be gay and retarded.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BD7tEFR36z8/X5Oa4BGcIKI/AAAAAAAAG-M/Pg9FMMNL6GEhT1HCnNsk9DT2i-oEy6TlACLcBGAsYHQ/s1249/whatyoudohere.jpg
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-glnSWB-cNSg/X5OhqjUERJI/AAAAAAAAG-U/ikY_hZ8SG_QjaSUipm4QO5QIBeVVaL95gCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/wearestrongnow.jpg
All because of the Schofield Reference Bible and Theology that resulted in modern day Zionism.
All of your points are excellent.
It should always be borne in mind that Artsakh has an absolutely tiny population -150,000 people. Unaided, it could not withstand even a very limited Azeri attack. Given its vulnerability, trading land for peace was the only sensible option.
Russia is the protector ( via CSTO ) of the Republic of Armenia and guarantor of its existence. When your protector says that something is in your best interests, you must go along with it, even though you grit your teeth. This may cause political problems for you domestically, but they must deal with it, not oppose your protector’s plan in order to curry domestic favour.
Pashinian is an inexperienced ex-journalist, who has encouraged insouciance on this and other matters. He antagonised his nation’s protector in numerous ways.If he is a Sorosite, he is very unimportant one, as George Soros has not deigned to meet him.
His appointment of a 29 year-old as head of intelligence predictably ended in failure.
Joseph de Maistre said: “Every nation has the government it deserves”
I hope, after all this is over, Armenians consider this seriously. Blaming Russia is pointless. The intransigence, incompetence and insouciance of the Pashinian regime is obvious for all to see. I suspect that very shortly Pashinian will be living in France.
If you want to see pressure on Azerbaijan to halt its advance, you and other Armenians highly active on the Internet should campaign for Biden rather than engage in pointless Internet debates.
You are using neoconservative logic. Neocons say that when Obama failed to bomb Syria in 2013, he “emboldened” Putin seize Crimea the following year. This never made much sense to me, and so is your attempt to establish a link between Karabakh and Ukrainian conflict.
And why would Azerbaijan want to downgrade its ties with Russia after the war? Russia remains a big and powerful neighbor and success of Azeri national project depends on maintaining friendly relations with it. I doubt that Aliev wants to spend the rest of his life as a Turkish satrap. He’ll need Russia in Azerbaijan, if only to balance Turkish influence.
Yes Erdogan also respects those redlines. He will surely play nice now.
Canada banned the export of irreplaceable components Turkey uses to manufacture drones. The rest of the world can and should do more.
I agree with you about one thing: Karabakh has a right. But when did this become Russia’s responsibility to protect every secessionist movement in ex-USSR? Turning this kind of morality into a foundation of our foreign policy, even at the expense of our national interests, would be the dumbest thing ever!
The best way to send this message is by beating the shit out of Ukrainians in defiance of Western pressure, not by invading (sponsoring Armenian occupation of) a neutral country like Azerbaijan, which is a model ex-Soviet country as far as the Kremlin is concerned.
Armenia is not occupying Karabakh, it is ours. However, you are right, Russia making a full fledged enemy of Azerbaijan just for the sake of it would be pretty idiotic. I honestly think it is time for Armenia to recognize Crimea as Russian and stop appeasing the Ukrainians. Now would be the best time since anti-Ukrainian sentiment has risen in Armenia since the start of the war, due to the Ukraine’s support of Azerbaijan.
“Iran has no border with Karabakh. Today, the bordering regions have been liberated from the occupation. Should Iran have any border with Armenia?” – Erdogan’s mouth piece from Yeni Safak
https://twitter.com/ibrahimkaragul/status/1319295601020841984
Will Russia accept the Turkic Jihadi-Salafi highway from Turkey to Azerbaijan? Quite clearly the stated intent now from Turkey is to annex Syunik to Azerbaijan thus cutting Armenia off from its last genuine trading partner in Iran.
Erdogan has previously stated during the Turkish-Russian hostilities with the downed pilots in Syria that Turkey has many Muslim brothers in Russia. (hint “we can cause instability”)
That has always been Erdogan’s threat. This is why Russia is reluctant to go all in on this. To be honest, I can’t blame Russians, they lived through the nightmare of the North Caucasian terrorism such as the Beslan shooting and the Moscow theatre debacle. They only recently gained peace from that and igniting this war into a regional one would make those awful days come back.
However, I doubt most Turkics in Russia really care about Erdogan. The Anatolian Turks probably overestimate the degree of influence that they have over those Turkics in Central Asian, Iranian, and Caucasian regions. I have spoken to a few Kazakhs and Tatars who have told me that Erdogan comes off as arrogant and rather annoying with his Turan larping. It is only a matter of time when he becomes totally irrelevant and Turkey hopefully returns to an EU friendly country. This is the best way to break or weaken the Turan solidarity.
This is not neocon logic, but common sense. Neocons accused Obama of emboldening Putin to sieze Crimea after they siezed Ukraine. They engineered strategic catastrophe for Russia and claimed it taking some crumbs was sign of it being emboldened. It is in no way comparable to NK or present Donbass situation as Russia would be seeking to preserve the status quo in both cases.
Azeris have naturally thrown their lot with the Turks, making them by default opposed to Russia in the region. Turkey and Russia are natural enemies and no amount of 4D chess by Putin will change that in the long run. Allies of Turkey are enemies of Russia and vice versa. Maybe Russia will squeze a few dollars here and there out of Azeris, but the trajectory is clear.
Russia has lucrative commercial relationships with both Turkey and Azerbaijan. These people are pragmatic, business-savvy and they understand the value of having Russia as a partner. The same can’t be said about Armenia, where Pashinyan government decided it was a good idea to create problems for Russian companies…
If we assume that Pashinyan government embodies Armenia’s long term trajectory, we can already write Armenia off as an economic partner. So, why are we supposed to fight for them again?
Are you “Concerned Christian”, or “Concerned Armenian”? You believe that Russia needs to fight (?) against Turkey on the side of Armenia, for a territory which Armenia itself does not recognize?
Azerbaijan use multi-vector policy between Turkey and Russia. They increase leverage with both side this ways. Armenia’s leadership tried to also multi-vector, but less successfully – at least until the US Democrat Party control the Senate (in which case, USA might sanction Azerbaijan*, which would be a first sign of success of multi-vector policy from Armenia).
This is a problem (immigration of Azeris and Armenians) of internal open borders policy by Putin (similar to Angela Merkel). It would be solved less in a “George W Bush” way by external policy, but by the kind of internal policy that Trump tries market in relation to Mexican immigrants, of reducing the open borders immigration regime. Unfortunately, with Putin, this official and unofficial open borders regime will not be switched to the more sensible selective immigration system.
** I.e. Problems of Armenian immigration
https://i.imgur.com/TgXh5Qq.jpg
Yes only 150000 Armenians live in Nagorno Karabakh. On the other hand, around 400000 Armenians live in Stavropol region, and between 500000 and 1 million Armenians live in Krasnodar region.
The great problems in Armenia are demographic and economic ones. They should have accepted Lavrov’s plan to give “land for peace” to resolve the conflict with Azerbaijan.
Then they needed to focus on the real problem, which is – how to attract Armenians to repatriate to Armenia, and how to develop competitive industries.
For example, Georgia has succeeded with tourism (Armenia needs to replicate this).
There is particular irony of Armenian nationalist emigrants, that do not live in Armenia, dreaming of war between Russia and Turkey. When the main problem of their country is themselves – the fact they do not live in their country.
I haven’t been in Armenia, so cannot say more about the country. But the fact that main streets in their second largest city look so empty of people: https://www.google.ru/maps/@40.7856459,43.8456943,3a,75y,123.32h,95.45t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sAF1QipN4tSAZidnyORBZJN0vECVjHAYb5fyQqw9StC6P!2e10!3e11!7i7680!8i3840
There have been other intergovernmental issues as well, such as that Armenia refuses to extradite Armenians citizens accused of killing Russians, to Russia.
For example, in the case of the murder of Nikita Belyankin.
https://tsargrad.tv/news/kak-dumaete-vydali-ego-rossii-pravilno-net-zhurnalist-pripomnil-armjanam-gromkoe-ubijstvo_286300
I predict that after this war, that relations between Russia and Armenia’s government will improve, as Armenia’s reliance on Russia will increase, to protect against Azerbaijan creating a corridor to Nakhchivan.
This is if Democrats do not win the Senate and Presidency in the USA. If the Democrats win in the election, then it is possible they will sanction Azerbaijan. If USA sanctions Azerbaijan, then it would be an indication of some success by Pashinyan’s government in building relations with the West, and they will probably encouraged to pursue multi-vector policy (at least to the extent, the Democrats seem to be more supportive of their positions).
According to Colonel Cassad a safe haven of moderated headchoppers was “Kalibred” in the Turk zone of north Syria. That’s may be a warning shot to Sultan Erdo
Wow, I have no clue where you got this crazy idea. Believe me when I say that no Armenian wants to see a war between Russia and Turkey. Something that big would be catastrophic to the whole region.
1) Turkey would embolden Azerbaijan to attack Karabakh and maybe even Armenia proper
2) Turkey would aid Azerbaijan in this war
3) The west would aid Turkey, as usual, because westerners are obsessed with weakening Russia
4) The humanitarian crisis would destroy Armenia and probably cause a depopulation of Armenia not seen since 1915
I know some Armenians have sounded pretty insufferable throughout this war, but you really need to stop pretending that we get excited by the prospect of war. This is just BBC “news” both sides tier nonsense that tries to equate Armenian concerns with Turkey’s historical aggression.
Does anybody have a crime statistics of Russia by ethnicity? Preferably translated.
Aliev already considered how to neutralize a theoretical possibility of American Evangelicals siding against him – he invited them to open churches in Azerbaijan and has conferences with their leaders.
If theoretically American Evangelicals supported Armenia, this would be good for Armenia, during Republican administrations.
With such theoretical Evangelical support, Armenia would convert into a US ally during Republican governments. However, it would be bad for Russia, as with the Evangelical support, there would probably develop American government interests and penetration in the country. In addition, if Armenia became an ally of America (especially an ally of Republican administrations), Iran would probably close the border to Armenia. Armenia would then be dependent only on its border with Georgia.
Even in such a theoretical scenario, as American ally, Armenia still could never join NATO, as Turkey has veto power to prevent it.
–
To return to real life. Currently, Armenia seems to be supported in American politics, by Democrats who have Armenian voters or donors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOYFdFOrDzo.
If Democrats control the Senate and Presidentcy after the election, there is indication they might impose economic sanctions on Azerbaijan. In this way, America would lose popularity in Azerbaijan, but would be some success of Pashinyan’s multi-vector external policy. As an oil-exporter to nearby countries (Israel, Turkey), though, Aliev is probably somewhat robust in face to future US sanctions.
Actually Azerbaijan’s largest oil customer is Italy. (Although they are the main oil supplier for Israel, for Turkey – not).
Obviously, possible Democrat sanctions could cause these customers to reduce oil imports from Azerbaijan, and oil imported by ships is usually a fungible kind of export.
(Although the letter from Congress only talks about sanctioning Aliev and other individuals for now, rather than country).
https://i.imgur.com/YIV4GLA.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/ja87xWs.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/wFXrBvD.jpg
Yea, the only American politicians who talk about the issue at all are Democrats.
https://twitter.com/RepAdamSchiff/status/1319723293973368832
And, as you might suspect, the bappin crew is not happy ;-(
https://twitter.com/WASBAPPIN/status/1319744082210516992
https://twitter.com/SailorHaumea/status/1319767427652177922
As I mentioned previously, Russia is the Republic of Armenia’s protector and guarantor of existence. A protector is obviously more able to protect before a war or catastrophic event than after. But idiots like Pashinian don’t realise this.
The opinion polls in America mask Trump’s lead, because the strategy behind them is completely flawed,
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/how-the-polls-hide-trumps-lead/
So I think it is unlikely Biden will win.
Ethnic Russian Cossacks used to beat up Armenians in southern Russia in the early 2000s, I don’t know if this is still a thing:
http://asbarez.com/51957/novorossiysk-armenias-seek-russian-armenian-presidents-intervention-in-cossack-rampage/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=9b7d2d6492100429b43679ca9e0de2f26661838b-1603584887-0-AVr84g54GH3HarxJuWB5UAaRrXjFUyn_ACgZWwwwXnMdOB0ZN7gvU6Eq_knvomkeO95koHyg8itu-6kfum1Ea7p71XZv3sTyD5PPVCcjyMqFD2TpTI5wMBBuvP0SCDPuMW8IB-ynIeNAlLC3b4yv5nz-gGjTp3Uax4WVHZGGikYvc97EY_vhJjZLPhgxGPwrcZ3wSjTHkHJqiQa7d3TSDsqtdk1XeSer53wU9ku9TgfUwRH3Kwy9fnB1e8wx4fq5m1ddFdoOTBBA-3FkDHedVfhxTjMn3xcUPFcfgsJfyh7J0vTrnn_Y6BAlC0iCjrmkSxHF078vGWBAMu83rG1U_zEp4YMeCh9_dW5VgaoJk-yWCEfBx1tqZGXsT8MuV9Ny6XNLCdseZiArdvZf6Y24XVk
Here a gang of ethnic Armenians was caught on camera murdering an ethnic Russian, in a hospital (!) in Russia:
And an ethnic Russian went on a rampage and murdered an entire Armenian family of six, including a 6 month old baby and 2 year old girl. Does that mean all ethnic Russians are baby and child murderers?
Kuban Cossacks fought alongside Armenians in the first Karabakh war. Many continued to live in Artsakh.
https://regnum.ru/news/polit/1410060.html
No, but if this was an example of a Russian refugee in Armenia it would call into question why such people would be there
Right, just like Hillary won in 2016 and how “polls decidely show”.
No sense in trying to decipher Jewish media before the fact.
We’ll know in a few months who won and who lost. Right now everything you know is just Jewish lies.
P.S. This post isn’t about Armenia, it’s about how even smart people buy into Jewish bullshit as long as it comes with a rubber stamp of “news”.
American “”Christians”” are the most shameless group of shabbos-goyim on the planet.
Putin said there has been 2000+ dead on each side. Though it should be noted he was trying to give the most boring, ridiculously neutral answer possible so to not look as if preferring one of the two countries…. so we should assume that must equate in definitely 2000 Armenians dead and at the minimum,2000 Azerbaijan killed.
He also made the point that, in less than a week of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan , over 1/3rd of the total Soviet dead in multi-year war in Afghanistan have been killed already.
That POS was, unfortunately, Russian army serving at Gyumri…..
which makes the incident even worse.
An American pal of mine, non anti-semitic, alerted me to this bizarre recent story of some guy working at the New Yorker magazine and also at CNN….. who was suspended or fired for ” caressing himself” during a Zoom call with other New Yorker staff, not realising he hadn’t disconnected.
It gets stranger…. Masha Gessen was in view during that same Zoom call(???) …. and of the 7 people who were there FIVE are Jewish, 1 Negro, and one assumedly normal white. That’s not including the boss at the New Yorker who is, of course, also Jewish.
So at the New Yorker, of the top 8 staff, 6 are Jews- quite strange and unacceptable in west which appears to be full of the same media/political types moaning abouting needing more “inclusion, diversity, equality” and all that other type of hypocritical BS. Even allowing for New York having a much higher percentage of Jewish population – 6 out of 8 people in Liberal media organisation is ridiculously high.
https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1320284517270171648
Russian army outpost setup in Syunik province on the border with Artsakh.
Clear statement from the Russians that Armenia proper is a no go zone. Even though there is no guarantee that the Turkic horde will respect it.
Why no post on what is going on in Thailand lately?
Bomb Yerevan?
Unpopular Opinion: This war still isn’t over yet and one of the most basic things about wars is that they are always unpredictable and the outcome never 100% certain.
Sure it looks very precarious for Armenians and Azeris have obvious important advantages in material and manpower, but morale, leadership and the “human factor” can all potentially have a decisive role now where Armenians have certain advantages. There’s also the fact that winter is coming soon and doing offensives in mountains is notoriously difficult.
This war shouldn’t be called definitely over unless Azeris enter Lachin, Kelbajar and Stepanakert as the former two are important for strategic reinforcement while the latter is important for political and symbolic value.
So how is the izdeliye 30 coming along?
“Churki” are flooding into Russia in the context of an informal and formal open border regime. So there are such problems often characteristic of open borders immigration, which could be avoided by imposing a selective immigration regime. This is similar to the situations in many parts of the world, like between USA and Mexico, or between France and Algeria.
In addition, the open borders regime, can create incentives for criminals and impunity. (A large part of criminal activity involves crossing of borders and criminals are one of the more transnationally mobile professions in a society, so they can be disproportionate among emigrants under open borders).
I certainly believe that immigration and immigrants (including from nationalities like Caucasians) can be good for a country in some contexts. But this is like saying “salt is good on food”.
A little bit of salt is good on food, but not so much, when you drop the whole jar of salt into your soup at the same time.
It would be much better – a selective immigration regime with quotas, to import the more assimilable and positively motivated representatives of the nationality.
–
Another issue of immigrants from Transcaucasia – importing their violence between each other.
Definitely agree. In the post-Soviet period unfortunately, beginning in the 1990’s, trafficking of all sorts skyrocketed. Human, drug, weapons, etc. I also believe that if Eurasian nations are going to be going to each other’s countries, then there must be a concerted effort to root out this trafficking. Otherwise it is total chaos.
Adam Schiff doesn’t talk for the Democrats in this case. He is pro-Armenian because his district is full of Armenian diaspora.
The Germans didn’t have antibiotics. I don’t know what modern medicine the Armenians have, but probably they are better than the Germans in some other aspects of emergency medicine. Therefore, the ratio of KIA to MIA must be lower than in WW2, which means that the Armenians must be suffering higher losses still.
I would add electronic warfare, which is also a standard way of anti-drone warfare.
I agree, after the loss of Karabakh, the Armenians will likely turn away from Russia. This will likely not be a smart policy for them, but it will still be there. I cannot see a positive outcome for Russia here.
Believe or not, that is very unlikely. I have heard a few Armenians from Yerevan saying that Anti Georgian, Anti Israeli, and Anti Ukrainian sentiments are the trend now. Many Armenians also seem to be more than glad that Russia has continued to supply Armenia with weapons and medical supplies, and are reluctant to express disappointment with Russia because they understand its position on intervention differences between Karabakh and Armenia proper. In my opinion, people in Armenia are quickly losing faith in the west, because it has released a few antiseptic statements regarding Turkey’s aggression. Many have noted how the world reacted with furor when the Crimea debacle took place, and have noted how reluctant NATO is to condemn Turkey outright throughout this war.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/russia-knocking-turkish-drones-from-armenian-skies/
This seems to confirm that the Kremlin and Russia’s military plus intelligence agencies have basically done what Karlin recommended they should do which is to indirectly support Armenia with military and intelligence help.
This also debunks claims that Turkish Drones are invincible while Russian anti-drone weapon systems are worthless because that was apparently the case in Syria and Libya.
Ultimately though, for Armenians it’s up to them to fight competently and effectively enough because no amount of Russian help short of a direct Russian military intervention (which won’t happen as Karlin has explained) can help them turn the tide of this war in their favor. Even this is no guarantee though because Russia’s indirect support depends on Iran keeping its supply corridors open, which although it seems inclined to do so, should not be taken for granted by Armenians given Iran’s geopolitical and internal situation.
The main sponsor of Turkey’s place in NATO has been the US from day one. Turkey has played a crucial role in flooding Syria with jihadists. Even now, they are the principle actor in keeping the Syrian war alive by their shielding of jihadists in Idlib.
Russia and Turkey have also been historical enemies, their current temporary frenemy phase aside. So Turkey’s role as a bulwark against Russia is appealing to the US, hence why it has been cautious in alienating it. Erdogan has called their bluff. There is no serious sanctions threat despite the S400.
Azerbaijan is also useful as a land-based aircraft carrier to bomb Iran (as a way to please Israel, ultimately). These reasons are why armenoids won’t get much support. I noted a few days ago that the paper of record in the US, the NYT, published a gushing one-sided piece totally in favour of Azerbaijan. I can’t think of a better signal of the true intent of the US Deep State.
The Azeris have reached out to Israel very strategically for years. Isn’t Aliyev’s kids even married to jews? Aliyev understands US power dynamics. Armenia clearly doesn’t, just as they don’t even understand their own neighbourhood. Instead Yerevan foolishly agitated for a “pro-Western turn” in a neighbourhood where it has structural forces against it. It almost seems like the people running the country bought into the official US rhetoric and became cargo cult members. That happens quite a lot when the leadership of a country is substandard.
I agree, Armenia’s elites are beyond stupid. Pashinyan should have just kept his mouth shut about everything and worried about domestic reforms. I always figured that Turkey was too important a power for the US and Britain to seriously ever support Armenia.
Soros gave him Armenia to destroy, not to reform, whether that dolt Pashinian understands it or not. Do you sincerely believe that a sorosoid could be trusted with implementing domestic reforms good for the country? If you do, I have a bridge to sell you.
“It was only late 1943 when luck of manpower began seriously hurt Germany. ”
According to the war diary of Colonel-General Franz Halder, Chief of the German General Staff, the German Army was 625,000 riflemen short their Table of Organization when they started their 1942 campaign. That’s like half the required infantry strength on paper. I’d say the Germans were seriously short of infantry in early ’42. That’s why Army Groups North and Center didn’t take any significant offensive action in ’42, because Germany’s infantry losses in June ’41 – Spring ’42 were so massive. The German training system just couldn’t keep up with the casualties to infantry and infantry small unit leaders that the Red Army was inflicting.
A Russian Krasukha-4 started to operate in Armenia. Drons started to fall.
No more war for lands. Let Armenia have NK Let the Azeri return . Armenia should vacate the land occupied by it and Azeri should let the Armenian live there as equal citizen . Alternatively let NK and surrounding area become a new country with power sharing between Azeri and Armenian in everything, in every aspect of the administration military education and job .
Otherwise the history again will repeat in future and foreign leaders will exploit again .
It can be tough sale but it will deliver a much better future for the next generation and the generation after.
Russia has taken the opportunity to launch a large raid on a Turkish training camp in Syria, whilst Turkey is busy in Azerbaijan and Greece this is the perfect time to take the same concern Turkey shows to Russia and help Syria regain Idlib.
Important to note the leadership of Iran is heavily Azeri, there is little opportunity of Azerbaijan siding with Israel against Iran, nor of Iran siding with Armenia against Azerbaijan, in any meaningful way.
Was it ever different? Armenians have always had far more negative feelings towards these three groups than Russians. In particular, Armenia is probably the most anti-Semitic Christian country in the world, at least since the mass exodus of Maronites and Melchites from Lebanon.
On the other hand Ukrainian identity is essentially rural, whilst the diaspora has of course always been urban. Georgia owns a chunk of majority Armenian territory on the southern border, whilst Georgian identity is basically aristocratic, which also puts them against the essentially commercial orientation of Armenians.
I guess that’s what happens when you elect an activist journalist to head a country. Anyway, I highly doubt there’s any connection with Soros or his organisation, you can easily brand any pro-Western policy from any country in that manner. I think he’s just a naive dumbass who might have had done something positive internally in another position, but now he’s fucked everything up.
Dammit, I accidentally clicked thanks and not LOL, because you’re laughably naive.
Agree.
This is where I disagree.
Azerbaijan openly claims a significant amount of Iran’s territory. The so called “South Azerbaijan” where several million Azeris with mostly pro-Azerbaijan national consciousness live.
Azerbaijan also hosts a very large Israeli embassy from which Israel sabotaged Iran’s nuclear program and has close ties to Israel/Jews.
Despite this, the official Islamist ideology of Iran’s regime would dictate to support Azeris because they are “fellow Shia Muslim Ummah” which makes many in Iran upset that it’s being neutral. This is a major reason why Iran’s top clerics had to issue a Fatwa along the lines that all Muslims who buy weapons from Israel are un-Islamic and heretics which is clearly directed against Azerbaijan, among others.
Iran’s attitude and stake in Nagorno-Karabakh is similar to Russia’s, official neutrality with good reasons to lean somewhat pro-Armenia, and give Armenians and Azeris a fair chance to fight each other. Still, the costs and dangers of this conflict for Iran are even higher than they are for Russia, while the benefits are even lower than they are for Russia.
You are right. Choice is now between endless or recurring wars and naivety.
In the same vein it can be added that —-interests needs constraints and hopes of the diaspora Armenian are not same as that of the native Armenian .Only thing binds them is the passion and memory . Diaspora Indian and Pakistani have factored same passion but it is peripheral . In case of India and Pakistan , it has been more of an issue of pure self interest , nepotism or caste based interest or career advancement.
Without diaspora’s influential input, life possibly would be more neutral less hostile more accommodating and accepting and less of an issue of proving being right and less of an issue of correcting historical wrong .
Cracks in Turkish-Russian ties begin to show
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/turkey-russia-s400-tested-cracks-ankara-moscow-ties-show.html
No, who would buy drones and antiair systems?
War for land? This so very special, very holy land, holy for Armenians and Azeris alike?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Artsakh
Armenians had their holy land for 25 years. And no one of millions of Armenians are coming to live there.
Kardashian family had quarter of century to return to their holy land, to dwell on the holy mountain among the holy boulders, to herd goats on the holy stones. For some reason, they missed the opportunity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Artsakh#Demographics
150,000 people on 11,458 km2 of land, population density 13,1 ppl/km2. Just like state of Utah.
The land is still, for all practical purposes, empty.
No one lives here.
No one will ever live there.
If Azeris get their holy land back, no one will “return”, no one will come to dwell here.
https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1320443975585714178
No one of the people who are cheering and celebrating will leave their comfortable city appartments with running water, electricity and central heating to settle in stone huts on the holy mountain.
The land will stay empty. The war is utterly pointless, even by the usual standards of “patriotic wars”.
So, what is my peace plan?
Anonymous Shitposter’s Carbon Negative Green Peace Plan is:
The land is declared international nature preserve.
Both sides leave.
Native species of trees are planted all over the land and native animals are reintroduced.
Both sides are happy, because filthy enemy foot is not trampling on the holy stones any more.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/24/Murov_mountain_in_Azerbaijan-Caucasus3.jpg
Greta is happy too.
https://assets.teenvogue.com/photos/5df26997794b00000813c1ce/master/pass/GettyImages-1167999508.jpg
It is impolite, even cruel, to use images of mentally ill people.
TIL that Aliev’s daughter married a man whose father met with Trump and helped organize Trump’s beauty pageant:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emin_Agalarov
In January 2013, Agalarov and his father visited Las Vegas, Nevada, after Donald Trump, the beauty pageant’s owner, announced at Miss Universe 2012 that the next competition would be hosted at Crocus City Hall, owned by Emin’s father Aras, in Moscow.[17]
In November 2013, Agalarov’s father hosted Miss Universe 2013 at his Crocus City Hall in Moscow.[17] Agalarov performed during the evening gown competition section. He also made a music video with Trump and the contestants.[15][16] Contestants were required to appear in the video without pay.[17] Agalarov reportedly “offered to send prostitutes to Trump’s hotel room” during Trump’s trip to Moscow, “but the repeated offers were rejected by Keith Schiller, Trump’s longtime bodyguard.”[19]
Herman Gref, who runs Sberbank of Russia, Agalarov and his father hosted a dinner for Trump on the night of the pageant.[17] While in Moscow, Phil Ruffin, who is a partner in Trump International Hotel Las Vegas, and Trump met with Agalarov and his father at the Ritz-Carlton.[17]
So, what follows? Does it make Trump disposed to support Azeris (likely Agalarov’s favorites), or Armenians (apparent favorites of Russia)? Keeping in mind that the money Trump made via this “beauty contest” would the sufficient to buy all prostitutes in Moscow and Las Vegas many times over.
Info for Americans: do you know that prostitution is legal in Nevada? Can you guess why?
Yes, it is an exclusive club. We are not and never will be in it.
What can we do? Make sure we do not end in this club.
https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1317407259635437571
https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1321140708120666112
How? Ask our esteemed host 🙂
https://image.shutterstock.com/image-photo/golden-bitcoin-virtual-crypto-currency-600w-773487922.jpg
Aliev’s daughters are very eccentric socialites that seem to mostly live in Moscow, and promote exhibitions of their paintings and poetry.
Father of Aliev’s grandchildren (Emin Agalarov) is a son of the oligarch, who works as a kind of social media/influencer. He made a music video with Trump in 2013 – using Trump as some kind of clickbait.
You can see what a joke the “Trump Russia conspiracy theory” was – when it was supposed to be dependent on these kind of people. Although Trump’s projects are the kind of thing they like to launder money with.
Those are Mountain Jews, which love Aliev. While they are wealthy in Russia, it’s still a type Caucasian people – i.e. it’s a primitive brown peoples’ political culture. They like Aliev, not despite, but partly because because he is a strong leader, dictator, etc.
This mentality Mountain Jews are not going to influence US politics, but they have strong influence in Israel. Israel is a Middle Eastern country, not a Western one, in its values, and doesn’t care about “democratic values”, “human rights”, etc.
Armenians should also become more easy to support in America, as Armenia is a democracy, while Azerbaijan is a hereditary dictatorship.
Some of these Democrats like Eliot Engel are powerful within Democrat Party, and support Armenia for years (likely they have Armenian donors).
It depends if the Democrats will win the election in the Senate and Presidency.
Although it’s also a possibility that Azerbaijan could win the war, before the election occurs (if they occur supply line routes of the Lachin corridor and Krasnyy Bazar). The election is still another week away.
All of Iran’s minorities see themselves as simply ‘Iranians’ through and through, the only significant exceptions being Baluchis and Kurds. Also, Armenians live comfortably enough in Iran, there is no persecution of traditional Christian minorities there, only converts, which might have more to do with them being affiliated with Protestant “NGO’s” than any theological considerations.
Iran’s leadership actively persecutes genuine Persian nationalism, whilst at the same time appealing to a diluted form in propaganda, in a manner very similar to Putin’s Russia. The Mullahs shitcanned Ahmadinejad for precisely this reason, as he started promoting Persian nationalist figures with highly heterodox religious views. It’s another reason Ahmadinejad was very popular with working-class sections of the country.
You make it sound as though the Russian government has the power to appoint leaders in countries like Armenia at will when it clearly does not. Pashinyan was colour-revolutioned into power on the back of a wave of anti-Russian sentiment in Armenia, and he proceeded to reject the deepening of defence ties between Russia and Armenia while trying to cosy up to the west. Genius.
The entire Artsakh situation was always hanging by a thread. Even as Pashinyan was coming into power, people were pointing out that Russia was really all that stood between Azerbaijan and their conquest of Artsakh, and that his anti-Russian position was hazardous at best. Given this situation, what exactly was Russia supposed to do? Invade Armenia to protect Armenians from their own stupid decisions?
I’m fully pro-Armenian in this conflict, and I do hope that Russia will take into account the potential negative consequences of allowing this all to continue to its logical conclusion. Nevertheless, it is really asking a lot from Russia to intervene in the defence of an unfriendly government that has openly spurned Russia for the west.
Well, I’m not an expert on Iran’s internal politics and never claimed I was.
The point is that the support of the Islamic Regime and the Iranian population for keeping the border open and allowing military and other supplies to Armenia is far more flimsy then you and many other Armenians seem to assume and simply take it for granted.
A successful US military attack, invasion and conquest of Iran would basically be game over for Armenia because it would give Azerbaijan a chance to grab north Iran for itself (and it seems most of the population there would welcome it from videos of the demonstrations) and completely surround Armenia with only notoriously unreliable Georgia being left to keep its border somewhat open to Armenia.
Drone videos released by Azerbaijan today.
Still a problem (of Armenian soldiers) bunching into close groups, under shooting of drones or guided artillery.
^ At 1:40 when drone’s view chases them behind a wall. Soldiers don’t seem to know where the drone is located or that they are in its surveillance.
Iran’s peace plan between Armenia and Azerbaijan seems quite similar to Lavrov’s – but Iran’s proposal is more pro-Azerbaijan than Russia’s.
In Lavrov’s plan, Armenia would give only 5 districts of Nagorno Karabakh (obviously excluding cities like Stepanakert) and provide Russian peacekeepers on the new borders, while Iran seems to want to give all Nagorno Karabakh territory to Azerbaijan, while protecting “minority rights”.
Unless hoping for an intervention from the Democrats in America, Armenia should go to accepting Lavrov’s plan, to the extent it’s still possible: Iran seems to support the whole territory going to Azerbaijan, unlike in Russian proposals where it’s only a smaller part of it.
https://financialtribune.com/articles/national/105889/iran-proposes-initiative-for-lasting-peace-in-nagorno-karabakh