What happened:
- Russia arrested the popular LDPR governor of Khabarovsk oblast, Sergey Furgal. He won against United Russia’s Salva Schport in 2018 and has been governor since, making it one of the few (nationalist) opposition-ruled regions in Russia.
- He is alleged to have ordered hits on local businessmen in 2004, when Russia was still rife with banditry.
- Yes, it may well be “political”. I don’t know Khabarovsk specifics, so not qualified to comment.
- The protesters are demanding that Furgal be tried in their region, as opposed to being taken to Moscow.
These are not unreasonable demands (apart from the fact of protesting during an epidemic, and mostly maskless at that).
They also happen to have absolutely zilch to do with Western fantasies about incipient anti-Putin bunts in Russia’s far-flung provinces, as is the dominant take on e.g. /r/worldnews:
As is often the case, Western journalists and plebs live in their own world so far as Russia (and many other things) are concerned.
The vote for the amendments to the Constitution last month, which may be considered as a proxy for Putin’s approval, got 62% in Khabarovsk (vs. the national average of 79%).
However, this was largely a function of Khabarovsk being one of the few regions where the vote wasn’t accompanied by large-scale falsifications (note the absence of any trends towards YES as turnout went up, in contrast to Russia a a whole). This is probably because much of the local administration is run by the opposition LDPR, not the regime party United Russia).
So, at least as of last month, a solid majority of people in Khabarovsk, could not be said to have been in opposition to the “regime.” This must be lower now, after the ham-fisted removal of Furgal – but enough to kickstart a color revolution?
While the protests in Khabarovsk are indeed big relative to the population (~30,000/600,000 protesting, or ~5%, at most), they are also:
- Not aimed against “the regime”/Putin, at least predominantly;
- Still far less mass than what the Maidan generated (or the “Russian Spring” in Crimea, in the other direction), nor was it violent or antagonistic to the police or local government, nor is it accompanied by permanent camps;
- Being about a local issue, it is of little relevance to the outside. In neighboring Vladivostok, only a few hundred people took to the streets. These are just the permanent malcontents who will come out on any occasion when Navalny deems fit.
Moreover, Furgal’s own party, the LDPR, has accepted this, though Zhirinovsky stated that it would continue to support Furgal in his trial. However, that is still a climbdown from the heated initial reaction, when Zhirinovsky suggested that all of the LDPR’s MP’s might resign from the Duma.
While cynics might describe this as the LDPR being its usual “fake opposition” self, it is noteworthy that Furgal was replaced by another LDPRist, Mikhail Degtyarev, who incidentally happens to be very based and redpilled:
New LDPR governor of Khabarovsk who replaces ousted Furgal is very based > TOC from his book:
* What is Autocracy & why is it vital Russia returns to it?
* The Great Lie of "Democracy"
* American; Lenin/Stalin; modern neoliberal & globalist; "democracy" (all in quotation marks). pic.twitter.com/JUnd7eIcks— Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes) July 21, 2020
This demonstrates that the Kremlin still can’t, or at least is ill-advised to, replace governors from the big formal opposition parties with direct United Russia flunkies.
That is, while their wishes can still be overridden, the likes of Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky are nonetheless consulted.
Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.
If you are new to my work, start here.
Lol, Zyuganov is still alive? Most political debate occurs within United Russia itself, speaking of which, I haven’t heard much about Sechin, Sergei Ivanov or Surkov in a long time.
I really dislike your use of Shpilkin analysis. I have not read much criticism of his methods, but I dislike him insisting that voting is normal distribution and especially the fact I’ve never seen him mentioning use of convolution when he combines graphs. It’s just seems very very wrong from my jaded memories of matan I still have.
Mr. Karlin, why oh why are you so hell bent on protecting Vlad Putin? Is it some kind of masochism?
Have you not heard the protesters chanting putin is a thief? Are you selectively mute to this kind of thing?
I wonder if the Ukrainian ancestry of some of the “Russians” in the Far East has anything to do with the recent protests there. As in, could Ukrainians be more inclined to be rebellious in comparison to Russians? Serious question, by the way.
Зелёный Клин
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine
Would also then make them more inclined to vote for Russian nationalists (LDPR is strongest in the Russian Far East).
Zhironovsky is viewed as an extreme nationalist in the West. Yet, none of the BBC segments on the matter of the jailed politician mention his affiliation with Zhirinovsky’s party.
That’s certainly possible. I mean, had Russia conquered Galicia in, say, 1866 or 1870-1871, then it could have pursued Russification policies in education there during the last half a century before the start of World War I. This could have ensured that Galicians would have still ended up hardcore nationalists–but hardcore Russian nationalists instead of hardcore Ukrainian nationalists. So, the Ukrainians who moved to the Russian Far East might have possibly been more exposed to Russification policies in education over the last 100 to 150 years (since, let’s face it, smuggling Ukrainian-language books from Galicia to Vinnytsia or even Kiev or Kharkiv is much easier than smuggling these books all of the way to the Russian Far East).
Maybe they are more inclined towards nationalism because they know how many Chinese there are on the opposite side of the border?
Also remember Primorskyie Partizany who started a guerrilla against corrupt cops and the degraded social conditions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primorsky_Partisans
@AK, the TOC of Degtyarev’s book is interesting — too bad I don’t read Russian, I’d like to get his book otherwise. What I find interesting, specifically, is the reference to autocracy. What are, in your view, the prospects for the LDPR in the future. In particular, wouldn’t the LDPR be less willing to whitewash Stalin and the commies, and more willing to stop the absurd and useless support of the Caucasian kinglets such as the Chechen one?
Zhirik is an old bisexual clown. He’s a showman. People only vote for him because no true nationalist party is allowed anywhere near the ballots in Russia. It’s a sign of despair really.
Yep, Green Ukraine.
Anyway, the Ukrainian nationalist strategy in four steps:
30,000 people did not turn up to demonstrate this weekend.
Though there maybe voters unhappy with his removal
Paid protestors did turn up – they had green stickers on.
People were bused in from outside – pictures videos on the internet of well known protestors from Moscow and Ekaterinburg.
Furgals allies in the govt will be cleared out / or run away in case they are scooped up.
Zhirinovsky no doubt got a sharp dressing down for his conduct – the guy sent to this area is his responsibility now. He needs to clean up that region – there is a reason why it lacks investment even though it is in a key area close to Asia !!! Mafia
The guy who was arrested cannot he tried in an area where he may have bought the police and justice system – mafia style in that area.
It is up to the good people in this area to put there region in order – we will see how this goes.
Ethnic Ukrainians in Russia aren’t by and large anti-Russian. FYI, the Khabarovsk city mayor, Sergei Kravchuk is a United Russia member.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kravchuk
Paul Goble wishful thinking aside, these protests don’t seem to support breaking away from Russia, anymore than NY politicos opposed to Trump seeking to separate NY from the US.
Can`t speak for Mr. Karlin but I also support Putin.
History shows that weirdos, running amok will doom society , like they did in Russia 1917, in the west 1968 or in Ukraine 2014.
There is nothing wrong with Putin, people are not equal and you can not let freaks and crooks run amok because of other freaks and crooks invented comfort words. Could anybody tell, what those words freedom and democracy and other garbage actually mean ?
Or can you tell one single good thing, what any anti Putin “opposition ” has to offer ?
Lol.
Because the alternative are scum, and he’s doing pretty good
Unlike the situation in Serbia, where we’re 1 ham-fistedness away from publicly impaling every single politician, with families, opposition or government
Some of the things that people who want to refute Shpilkin need to explain include:
(1) Why do the voting patterns of ethnic Russians, one of the most homogenous “big nations” on the planet, differ so drastically between regions?
(Not in the sense of some candidates doing better in one region or another, but why in some regions the turnout/pro-regime vote forms a near tight cluster in the middle, while in other regions it resembles a comet going up and right).
(2) Why do voting patterns in some regions flip between tight clusters and comets?
(3) I am not even going to mention patently obvious fraud patterns, like this: https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1279411234631229440
PS. On a more general note:
https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1287334756657618947
Shpilkin is a 100% forger, a particularly disgusting sort of male prostitute. In Russia, there is undoubtedly fraud in the elections, but this does not make a maggot like Shpilkin better. Any reference to a two-legged filth like Spilkin or Kireev will automatically invalidate any claim.
Here is a little bit about his ” method”
http://www.wiz-aut.narod.ru/L042_falsifikacii_3_statistika.htm
Sorry, TLDR. But would be happy to read a summary.
Or just a succinct explanation of what happened in, say, Moscow between the 2011 Duma elections and the 2012 Presidential elections to make voting patterns change so drastically.
https://akarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/moscow-elections-2011-2012.jpg
Meanwhile, here are the latest words of support and encouragement for Khabarovsk protestors from trans-Neptunian space.
https://twitter.com/SailorHaumea/status/1287213875016933377
https://twitter.com/SailorHaumea/status/1287198859253481472
When Anatoly Karlin talks about benefits of moderate Russophobia for Russia, is this example moderate enough?
First line on bio;
“They also happen to have absolutely zilch to do with Western fantasies about incipient anti-Putin bunts in Russia’s far-flung provinces”
Maybe there’s something to the Far-Flung Provinces theory of social unrest. Consider the anarchy in Portland, Seattle and now Oakland, 3000 miles and 3 time zones away from the all-powerful Acela Corridor, where the equally insane commu-trannies of Boston, New York and Washington are mostly chill.
To be sure the Rightest protests in Khabarovsk are the mirror image of those Leftist riots, but both are directed against the central government, and Khabarovsk is an even more remote 8000 kms and 7 time zones from Moscow.
AK also mentions that there were small protests in Vladivostok, and that the LDPR are strongest in the Russian Far East. How much of this is ideological and how much is the natural regional reaction of the distant hinterland to the domineering centre?
I think distance is an underrated political/cultural factor in the great “wide” nations of the world, like Russia, China, the US, Canada, Australia and Brazil. It breeds a sense of impotence and inferiority among boondock-dwellers, in a permanent and unalterable sense, toward the all-controlling (and some times foreign) elite class concentrated thousands of miles away.
The Leftists in Portland and Rightists in Khabarovsk are permanently alienated from their central governments in a way that their ideological counterparts in, say, Philly and SPB never will be. If Trump wins the election I would expect the most serious secession attempt in 160 years to begin with a super-trending #Calexit, spreading to rest of the West Coast (including right-leaning Alaska), and culminating with an independence referendum in Hawaii, 5000 kms and 5 time zones from Washington, DC. Last in, first out.
Of course the geopolitical dynamics in Russia are completely different, with thinly-populated Siberia bordering 1.4 billion possibly hostile zipperheads, whereas California by itself is richer and more powerful than either Canada or Mexico. The Russian Far East may resent Moscow but they need its protection.
Almost the entire world will cheer the secession of American states, including growing numbers of Americans inside and out of the (Pacific) states most likely to be affected. Ideology and demography will be crucial triggers in any coming break-up, but so will the ineluctable fact of geography.
Capturing Mars and Venus would be more realistic. Even though Ukraine was unable to launch its own satellite (Lybid) for two decades.
Given Russia’s large angry youth population, is an Arab spring style revolt possible in Russia?
No. Russia’s youth population not large and not especially angry, and in General Russia has very little resemblance to the Arab countries
Good points. The number of demonstrators keeps going down. Looks like rent-a-crown money is dwindling. Or maybe those who supplied it decided that they need the money to run away, as their godfather was arrested.
“Spontaneous” demos were interesting in that there were a lot of identical T-shirts and placards. Easy to guess who paid for this “spontaneity”.
When the libtards from other regions joined in, the protests lost a lot in the eyes of most Russians. Nothing ruins your credibility in Russia as much as an association with libtards. I suspect that Putin cynically allowed libtards from all over Russia to swoop in to discredit Kahabarovsk protests.
As to the actual reason for Furgal arrest, he is accused (as a matter of fact, by some of his associates and hirelings) of hiring contract killers to commit several murders of business people in Khabarovsk who tried to resist his takeover of their businesses, as well as of one policeman who apparently resisted local mafia (using Mexican narcos’ terms, he did not choose plata given a choice of “plata o plomo”, so he got plomo).
Let me say this straight: I believe that all Russian oligarchs (just like the oligarchs in other countries, including the US) are thieves. But not all of these thieves are also murderers. Furgal is accused of arranging several contract murders. If proof is produced in court, this should be punishable by life in prison (by rights, it should be punished by execution, but, in contrast to the US, Russia does not have death penalty).
Many slogans held by the protesters are schizophrenic. What else can you say about a guy holding at an illegal meeting a placard saying “everything must be by the law” protesting perfectly lawful arrest of a suspect in a criminal investigation? If everything is by the law, being elected should not make a criminal immune.
All things considered, as there remain in Khabarovsk lots of sidekicks of the arrested godfather, he should not be the only one punished for his crimes.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaanwSaXgAEHwU1.jpg
Two things make Arab countries prone to lunatic movements and color revolutions. First, high TFR, which translates into high proportion of people with adult hormone levels and immature brains. Second, Arab crowds are virtually 100% male. Females of every mammalian species are more reasonable and inclined to adaptive behavior. Human male mobs are less intelligent than a troop of chimps.
No. The Russian East is just more lax and freewheeling in general. Think “Wild West”.
Putin also seems to have some positive feelings towards the nation and people he leads, which is totally unacceptable by GlobHom elite standards.
I would add that many Arab countries also have secular-ish governments run by old men that lord it over large youth populations that look to their local mosques and imams for leadership and guidance.
Well, as amusing as it is, I have noticed that when Russian systemic opposition (Communists and LDPR) stage protests, they become credible in the Western media. They are usually dismissed as Putin puppets, but when Communists protested pension reforms, they were made into a brave anti-Putin opposition force. Same with Khabarovsk protests, Western media who wouldn’t give nationalists a second glance are now nodding with full approval. Even though systemic opposition is hardly pro-Western in their outlook.
Here is Zhirinovsky in an interview with German publication:
https://www.dw.com/en/zhirinovsky-europe-you-shall-tremble/a-42923191
I wonder if LDPR took a page from WASBAPIN and declared the following platform:
“Putin sucks and is evil because West still exists. Nuke the West now!”
And staged anti-Putin demonstrations with that slogan, which part of the slogan would NYT focus on? I mean, it would be anti-Putin after all.
Half expecting to read something like “Brave Russian Opposition Demands End To Putins’ Meddling In Delivery Of Carbon Free Energy To The West”.
I understand, severe Russophobia would mean actually pushing the button.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/Ivy_Mike_-_mushroom_cloud.jpg
This is not going to happen until about 2040, when Bappin/Haumea ticket wins the Democratic nomination and the presidency.
If nothing interferes…
https://twitter.com/SailorHaumea/status/1287431786193129479
Much like in Russia, but replace local mosques with social media. The Russian population has a median age of around 24 but it is run by Soviet dinasaurs.
The Russian population has a median age of around 24 but the country’s leadership run by Soviet dinasaurs, who have failed to deliver any meaningful economic growth in 10 years.
You seem to have very strange ideas about Russia. Could you educate yourself, or listen to people who know better (e.g. melanf), before commenting on these topics. Cheers.
Arab Spring was a ‘curated’ event by European telecommunications and media corporations to obtain wireless licenses, media control and market share in the afflicted countries. In Tunisia, Orange Telecom was granted 3G license but had to give up control to regime cronies. After the revolution crony went away and Orange Tunisia gained control and market share.
In Egypt, post revolution Orange Egypt straight up took over the national carrier Mobinil (it doesn’t exist anymore) and gained access to wireless licenses and market share.
For that matter, Macron election in France was also part of the same curated experience. His En Marche movement was created by Morgan Stanley digital media team, Dutch-French-Lebanese Altice corporation, and French telecoms.
Those players have limited influence in Russia, so ‘Arab Spring’ is unlikely there.
Zyuganov was politically dead since 1996. Likely brain-dead since birth.
A commie calling himself an Orthodox Christian is either a liar or a madman (could be both).
Yes, serious question, but also an extremely stupid one. These “Ukrainians” are Russian in every sense of the word, and it’s never a serious point of discussion that they are anything else.
If you look at the names of the elite/major businessmen in Far East and Siberia, then I reckon it is about 80% Ukrainian names, also disproportionately high Ukrainian names in the North and even in the rest of Russia it appears to me ( all entirely unscientific of course) about 30-40% are Ukrainian name.
Its spelled “dinosaurs.”
Last names are inherited through paternal line, whereas genes are inherited through both paternal and maternal line 50:50. So, last name can have very faint relation to the genes. Besides, Russian is not a tribal definition, thank goodness. Russia evolved past that point long ago, even before Soviets.
Jesus that Reddit thread is unbelievably ignorant. Do those “people” seriously believe that bullshit?
I predict Russia will have an Arab spring style revolt against Putin. The median age of a Russian is around 24 and a majority of the population is in poverty. Russia is lead by ageing soviet era dinasaurs who have a massive wealth and power, so the Putin government can’t hold out against the tide for much longer.
AK: Banned for negative value added comments including factually wrong claims, which user maintains despite being repeatedly corrected.
I don’t want to refute Shipilkin & others, my problem is that their analysis looks very wrong from science perspective. Classical GIGO case.
All artifacts/weird stuff you listed boils down to why seemingly homogeneous people vote differently (in any way) from place to place? I have no idea. And it doesn’t matter. My commieblock currently undergoing raging renovatia and every meeting we have about that always have some grumpy “fuck Sobyanin” dudes. I wouldn’t be surprised if my particular block was hot bed of constitution amendments haters and weird artifact on Shipilkin graph
What matters though, is that you use very shady work of math (normal distribution? You can’t do that for people voting, you just can’t. It’s GIGO) to portray voting fraud in your post and I am sad about that. I like this blog because it’s scientific.
Disclaimer – I don’t really care if voting fraud exists or not, it’s was irrelevant to my original post
FFS Karlin:
Strongly linked to gangsterism then ( and even now) ….who has nine fingers ( missing thumb)!!!!! …… now I have no idea but I don’t think those born with hand deformities normally have the thumb as the missing finger LOL
3.
FFS. “Popular” or “peoples” governor is just western scumbag/liberast disinfo/PR. Can we just call every elected governor “peoples” or “popular” governor?
It looks like he was doing a good job, probably not top 20 rated of governors but not bottom 20, – but his dodgy machinations with his business dealings since he came to power seem to have incited some businessman or other witness to come forward with strong evidence to the authorities
Anyway it is beyond a joke for these paid, out-of-region hamster “protestors” to make two totally contradictory claims at the same time….. that Furgal was a “great” governor, and complain that life is a disaster in Khabarovsk ( to discredit Putin and the new governor)
No serious, non-loser person protests for hours on such a non-issue – the supposed “hurt” at him not being tried there is irrelevant. Protesting over his arrest of course is normal. BTW they have arrested several of his allies in business and government..for corruption. But in addition several arrests of ER guys have happened and many big positions in the state agencies in Khabarovsk
Of course!!!
BTW I was also thinking about Ukrainian names being almost always the default name given to a Russian in a Hollywood film , or any fictional Ice hockey player or athlete. Americans are obviously extremely dumb on issues like these, but on this occasion I think it is more indicative of an innocent child inadvertently telling the truth, based on subconscious perception that has been taken in over 50 + years of Russia/Soviet Union coverage – instead of the usual dumb-Americanism.
When the LDPR went into coalition in Saratov I was positively surprised that the ones I met were younger and cleverer than the UR apparatiks that they replaced.
Not even close. Russia’s median age, UN-fortunately, has risen to nearly forty:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/275400/median-age-of-the-population-in-russia/
Do you have in mind “Russians” like John Hodiak, a very popular leading man in Hollywood, who gave a very impasioned speech to the American and Canadian Ukrainian immigration requesting funds to help Ukrainian WW2 orphans..
“At 10:03 Hollywood’s leading-man John Hodiak begins his stirring speech in his native Ukrainian for war refugees and orphans. My dear friend Ted Shumeyko years ago gave me an audiocassette of this 1947 nationwide broadcast by the Mutual Radio Network. The brilliant Ukrainian-Canadian violinist Donna Grescoe plays immediately before Mr. Hodiak. Also heard are NYC Opera star Mary Lesawyer and the Greater Chicago Ukrainian Chorus.”
Since you consider yourself an expert in the Ukrainian language, how does Mr. Hodiak fare? His request for funds begins at 10:03 of the radio show:
https://youtu.be/Njch2eqXXz4
The protests mean that the regional elites are getting tired of Moscow’s appetites because the economic pie is shrinking. If they go on, the protests will be put down. Either through brute force or a provocation or a combination of both.
With the exception of Caucasus republics, the Putinist Vertical of Power is a simple mechanism, a pump actually: you pump wealth from the regions, you bring it all to Moscow, you cut a big chunk for the Rublevka (it is closer to truth to write it that way instead of Rublyovka, pun intended), you export a portion to the Offshore and Swiss wealth management funds and bank accounts, then you give a hefty gravy bowl of the remaining funds to the oligarchs and kleptocratic bureaucrats. What is left is to be shared by the MIC, the army and security agencies, the industry, the infrastructure and the population (in that order).
It works fine when oil and gas are expensive and natural resources exports thrive. That’s not the case today. Someone needs to cut spending. It ain’t gonna be VVP’s friends. The prime targets of the spending squeeze are regional elites and the general population. Of course they are going to complain. They need to be reminded that Moscow is the boss “from the taiga to the British seas” (for those who know their revolutionary classics)…
Oh shut up you cretin. Khabarovsk is one of the highest invested regions,by proportion, in the last 7 years.
You have obviously recycled some demented cr*p you heard on Ekho or read from some idiots.
The dynamic or concocted narrative of “rich capital” against “poor hinterlands” happens in every major country. Here in Russia it is more of a playful thing, than anything serious.
Tatarstan, where I’m from, is proportionally invested in more than Saint Petersburg.
President and government coronavirus support package to families disproportionately benefit “regional” families (well, poor ones) ahead of Moscow/SP because everybody can claim the same amount as its not income based( can reach 80000+ Roubles in a month for families with required age configuration). Same principle on maternity payment – 460k for the year if 1 child, 640k if 2. You know how many muscovites I have heard moaning that these payments are excessive for vatniks in whatever region?
There was a shock arrest, on very strong suspicions of murder. His supporters started protesting. Entirely normal. Not normal- liberast/western funded di*k heads joining the protests and trying to “exploit” where there is nothing to exploit. President is heavily supported and has got a huge victory on his constitutional vote….. and these retards are too dumb to notice that he has by stealth made certain he will be President until 2030 with his national projects revision
As for Oil, remember when below 60USD was supposed to kill the country? Then 45? The US and KSA appeared to piss themselves when Siluanov said during the fall of price after coronavirus that Russia can easily $20 oil price for 6 years! Which then appeared to affect the negotiation.
Once again, I would ask both of you to explain how this happened:
https://akarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/moscow-elections-2011-2012.jpg
WTF is this drivel? You are comparing Gosduma to VVP?lol
In March 2018 Putin wins Khabarovsk with 65% turnout and about 65% of the vote, KPRF get twice the amount of votes as LDPR
In September 2018 Furgal and Schport both get around 35-36% on a 35-36% turnout, 2nd round two weeks later it’s about 50% turnout and 70% win for Furgal as Schport’s vote stays the same ( effect from heavy flooding at the time also shows on the vote) , KPRF unites against ER candidate by voting with Furgal and he himself is able to motivate/bus in enough voters.
So WTF is your point? – BTW remember I said Zhirik vote was half the KPRF just a few months before
Khabarovsk is near exact same % vote for ER in 2011 and 2016 elections. Turnout is very different ( 53% vs 38%)…but so what with regards your claims about the “correlation” of turnout and vote?
Only an idiot would say Russian elections now are corrupt, certainly they are completely smooth now compared to 2011 and 2012…..2012 56% for VVP in Khabarovsk versus 65% in 2018, Duma elections nationwide vote increase from 49% in 2011 upto 54% in 2018. Crimea and other things account for that increase in vote – but fraud is definitely not one of them…….plus claims of fraud in 2011 and 2012 are heavily discredited with such numbers.
If libtard retards had not made such a fuss, plus the effects from the coup in Crimea then I reckon ER would struggle to get 50%+ of seats, massively increased now because of the same nonsensical “reform” liberasts were demanding