Map: Population Growth in Eastern Europe 1990-2020

(h/t @popdemography)

Anyhow, very good/comprehensive map, with almost surprises. The only thing that was a real TIL to me was the increase in Belgorod oblast, which is the green region next to Kharkov oblast in Ukraine. Its TFR is low like in most central Russian regions, but it’s apparently a popular destination for Russians from the Far North and for Ukrainian migrants (that is, those who don’t settle outside Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, and Krasnodar, which are the main destinations of internal Russia migration). It is a conservative region whose governor once banned public swearing.

BTW, the @popdemography account is well worth following, even if you don’t understand Russian.

Comments

  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

  2. Should we fear another Mongolian expansion?

    Just kidding – but if they successfully claim the other side of the Great Wall, then it is time to watch out.

  3. AlexanderGrozny says

    West Slavs are looking Stronk.

    Is this just due to migration/momentum or do they indeed have a bright future? Could this region’s economy overtake Germany or Russia sometime in the future in terms of nominal GDP or PPP?

  4. Why is central Ukraine (other than the Kiev area) especially demographically hard-hit among all Ukrainian regions? I previously read that some Malorossiyan oblasts might nowadays actually have a smaller population than they had even back in 1926, which is extremely interesting!

  5. There are two times as many Mongols in China than in Mongolia itself.

    “The Mongols have broken through the Great Wall of China! Quick, protect the Emperor!” 😉

  6. Immigration might be helping them a bit in regards to this. There are some Vietnamese people in Czechia, for instance, and Anatoly Karlin previously mentioned seeing a lot of South Asian people and even a few black people in Poland on his visit there.

  7. Boomthorkell says

    The West Slavs, meaning specifically the Czechs, Poles, Slovaks and Sorbs (I shouldn’t even mention the Sorbs, but it just feels rude to leave them out, even if they are basically Germans now), probably couldn’t get enough population nor “economy of scale” to overtake Russia. If they united as one country, “Wendia” or something, they might match Germany population wise (eventually, if things kept improving), but even then, I just don’t think they’ll pull off a bigger economy.

    A lot of their economic potential would likely come from greater trade with the East (Everyone in between them and Greater China), which would, by the nature of its being, mean a stronger Russian economy as well. The only chance of that not happening is some…I don’t know, basically some kind of alternate-alternate “Man in the High Castle” where Eurasia is split between a Groß-PL(& Czeochoslovakian)C and Oversized-Tang Era China.

  8. Boomthorkell says

    If only for a moment, those horse nomads really glowed brightly. Just goes to show, though, better to be advanced, urban, and agricultural. Even the Manchus learned the Agriculture part pretty quickly.

    Still, I’m fond of them. I think FTL Space Travel will make being an Ubermensch Nomad cool (meaning, a valid and powerful civilizational choice) again.

  9. AlexanderGrozny says

    Most Vietnamese in Czechia came in the 1960s and I don’t think they have high fertility rates either.

  10. There were apparently 17,000 of them in 2001 and 83,000 of them in 2011:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnamese_people_in_the_Czech_Republic

    So, Yes, growing rapidly through immigration even if they are not breeding a lot.

  11. AlexanderGrozny says

    That is interesting, the wikipedia article says

    Vietnamese immigrants began settling in Czechoslovakia during the Communist period, when they were invited as guest workers by the Czechoslovak government. Migration was encouraged by the Vietnamese authorities, with the intention that the migrants would return with skills and training.

    Following the collapse of Communism in Czechoslovakia, many Vietnamese people decided to remain in the country rather than return home

    Sounds similar to what happened in Germany with Turks, invited as guest workers but didn’t return home and established a community.

  12. AFAIK about Czechia
    immigration contributed substantially, especially around 2007-2012 when there was a big immigration wave, especially from eastern europe and again recently there was a spike in immigration, again primarily from eastern europe, but now also form non-european countries.Since from 2006 live births are at rough parity with live births and before that there were substantially more deaths than births (around 50 000 more), immigration was propably what made the difference. I suspect it’s roughly the same in other countries in eastern europe, although they don’t have as good of an economy (children, but especially immigrants come with a good economy).

  13. he only thing that was a real TIL to me was the increase in Belgorod oblast

    Also not quite clear is the population growth in the Kaliningrad Region, and (if I understood the map correctly) the Astrakhan region

  14. I made a breakdown of the foreigners that are in Czechia registered with the Czech foreign police and grouped them by “origin area” (that roughly corresponds to race) in 2018

    European: 75,66%
    Central Asia: 1,9%
    NE Asia: 3,88%
    SE Asia: 11,4%
    South Asian (i.e. Indians): 0,93%
    in total there are 566 931 foreigners registered (around 5% of the population)
    this doesn’t account for all the foreign nationalities rhat are present, but it’s a rough estimate of where the immigrants coming here are from.

  15. Kaliningrad – Baltic exiles? Astrakhan – large Kazakh minority would be enough to explain it I think, it’s not drastically different from its neighbors (could just be a few percentage points difference).

  16. anonymousperson says

    That is your idea of “help”?

  17. West Slavs have done well in every respect since 1945, so it has naturally continued after 1990. (Czechs and Slovaks have done well since 1918, Poles had disastrous WWII.) There is no reason why that shouldn’t continue, other than external meddling that would turn them into a battleground, again.

    The economies are not ideal and a depend on low-level assembly work for German business. But there is also a healthy sustainable economic core that grows organically. Due to stupid political choices, West Slavs have allowed themselves to be largely eliminated from the Russian market by Germans, Italians, Austrians, etc…a foolish own goal, but given German propensity to overdo everything, they may soon follow. In any case, under normal circumstances in the east, economies of V4 would be 10-25% larger.

    The percentage of white, cultured Europeans in the region is 95% or higher, and most of the migrants are from Ukraine, Belarus and Serbia and they quickly assimilate. The biggest danger – by far – is inevitable transmigration of Third Worlders settled in the West to the greener pastures of V4 countries. As of right now there is no mechanism to stop it. (Thank God for difficult languages and lower incomes.)

    V4 countries don’t see the recently arrived Third Worlders in Western Europe as “European” in any sense of that word. The mulatto migrants and their liberal facilitators hate this rejection and see it as something that has to be defeated. If EU breaks up over anything it will be over this unresolvable dilemma.

  18. Boomthorkell says

    Good for them, then. It does mean that my point remains, they won’t likely be larger economically, even as a combined unit, than Germany or Russia.

  19. Of course not. But it is not about the size of GNP, it is about quality of life, most people forget that. I would argue that V4 quality of life – or at least Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary – is already better than in most of Western Europe or in Russia.

  20. Europe Europa says

    Most of the population growth looks to be the heavily non-Slavic areas of Russia judging by that map.

  21. Why is central Ukraine (other than the Kiev area) especially demographically hard-hit among all Ukrainian regions

    Lots of people moving to nearby Kiev.

  22. Throughout Ukraine, not just in the central areas, young people are abandoning the country side and the small villages and moving to the larger cities, to find better living and employment opportunities. Up until the demise of the Soviet Union, the collective farms were a major venue for employment opportunities, but with this demise the collective farm system went as well. This general trend, from the village to the big city is not unique to Ukraine, but is to be seen throughout the world. In Ukraine, this trend to find better working conditions also has resulted in a lot of immigration to the West, for the country is still struggling to change its economic and business system. Something like 500 small villages have been totally abandoned just within the last few years throughout Ukraine.

    There are several well made documentary TV shows dedicated to the abndonment of such villages in Ukraine that you can watch on YouTube if you’re interested and can understand Ukrainian. The basic story line is where the young reporters visit these abandoned villages and enter what remains of a dilapidated house and rummage through the leftover artifacts (books, letters, photos, furniture etc.) and try to piece together the possible history of the former owners. Another variant is where the reporter actually finds a few very elderly inhabitants of these villages and conducts an interview with them where they discuss the past history of the shrinking village. I started to watch these kind of programs very recently and discuss them with my 89 year old Ukrainian roommate who always has some additional commentary of his own to add to the dialogue.

  23. Bies Podkrakowski says

    Karlin previously mentioned seeing a lot of South Asian people and even a few black people in Poland on his visit there.

    That’s part of the problem, not help.

  24. Haruto Rat says

    Western Kazakhstan seems surprising, it’s an extremely unwelcome place with harsh climate. I guess it’s low base plus oil.

  25. They’re gonna have to breed a lot more to get to that level.

  26. those who don’t settle outside Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, and Krasnodar, which are the main destinations of internal Russia migration

    Probably now the Crimea will be added to these destinations

  27. …South Asian (i.e. Indians): 0,93%

    Over 4,000 Indians – they should be kept safely under 1,000. I had two Indians from France assigned to my team…they immediately tried to move their families from India to Prague, constantly complained about lack of “veggie” food, investigated social benefits (we tracked them), and were useless, probably with fake diplomas that is very common among Indians.

    As all Indians do, they constantly complained about Prague and “racism”. Their suppressed hatred of all white people and self-loathing was palpable. After a few months we sent them back to France and they never asked us to take more. Poland needs to watch out, they have targeted it as an easy mark.

  28. less than 1% of the population in Czechia is asian (overwhelmingly vietnamese) and most of them dont have citizehsip. In Poland the situation is similar about 50-60k vietnamese , and about 80k asians and a few hundreds africans and latins ( counting both foreign resident and work permit holders)

  29. the asian diaspora in eastern Europe(vietnamese,japanese,korean,chinese,thai,filipino,nepalese,indian) have below replacement fertility

  30. The Big Red Scary says

    In Ukraine, this trend to find better working conditions also has resulted in a lot of immigration to the West

    Anecdotally, low-wage work in Warsaw has been taken over by Russian speakers from Ukraine, and the Poles are annoyed. I blame Putler.

  31. Goddamn Chukotka and Magadan fell off.

    No much surprise about Chukotka, but I thought Magadan might have been kept afloat by the metallurgical industry – looks like that failed, though.

    Because those lands are quite trash tier I expect that these marginal places get slowly emptied in favor of European cities or places like Vladivostok and Khabarovsk and cities on the very south of Siberia. Especially when the Siberian High effect disappears, though who knows what will happen until then

  32. Can’t blame the Poles for being disappointed with their Russian speaking Ukrainian employees. If it were me, I’d fire them on the spot if they couldn’t converse in Ukrainian. 🙂

  33. Because those lands are quite trash

    This is cool land

    http://cs5.pikabu.ru/post_img/2015/03/05/6/1425545248_1899308726.jpg

  34. Nice and interesting to look at and stay in a bit, to live at all times… not so much.

    Again, it’s mostly that damn air current that makes it unbearable in winter. When that goes it will get a bit milder, less insane winter-summer temperature differences

  35. You perceived well that:

    V4 countries don’t see the recently arrived Third Worlders in Western Europe as “European” in any sense of that word. The mulatto migrants and their liberal facilitators hate this rejection and see it as something that has to be defeated. If EU breaks up over anything it will be over this unresolvable dilemma.

    I would add that many “Visegradians” have been realizing to their surprise recently, that every recently arrived Mahometan is considered more honorable by western societies then themselves. For example see “Polish plumbers” issue compared to wilkomen kultur for Syrian refugees originating from large space betwean Afghan and subsaharian desserts… This really may work EU dissolution.

  36. Even from Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, and Dnipro but not (at least nowhere near as much) from the rest of Novorossiya or from the Ukrainian territories further to the west such as Volhynia, Galicia, Bukovina, and Subcarpathian Ruthenia?

  37. This must be Ukrainian nationalists’ wet dream since this makes Ukraine itself even more svidomy, right? Serious question, BTW.

  38. Would you be willing to keep them but give them a 50% pay cut if they spoke Belarusian but not Ukrainian? 😉

  39. It looks like it’s time for Russia to take back Petropavl and Uralsk. The Kazakhs don’t seem to be interested in them.

  40. The Kaliningrad area makes good cheese.

    Have you tried Tilsit/Sovetsk?

  41. It looks like it’s time for Russia to take back Petropavl and Uralsk. The Kazakhs don’t seem to be interested in them.

    I did a bit more research.

    I was wrong about Uralsk/Oral. It is growing, and Kazakhs outnumber Russians there by a lot.

    I was right about Petropavl. Perhaps Russia could purchase it. I’m sure that with the right carrot, and the right stick, returning Petropavl to Russia is doable.

  42. Belarusian Dude says

    I can confirm, my mother went to warsaw and cafes had almost universal service in Russian from Ukrainians

  43. Suggests that more Ukrainians are leaving from the eastern parts now.

  44. Yes, several of my family members from one of those oblasts moved to Kiev.

  45. Gotcha! FWIW, my (Jewish) paternal grandfather was actually born in Vinnytsia in 1929 to my knowledge. He and his family fled eastward in 1941 during Operation Barbarossa in order to escape the Nazis and first went to Stalingrad and then to Samara (Kuybyshev) Oblast once the Nazis were approaching Stalingrad. They never actually moved back to Ukraine, not even after the end of World War II, due to them hearing about the anti-Semitism of a lot of the locals in Ukraine during the Nazi occupation and the Holocaust. So, they felt that it was better for them to stay in Russia (then the Russian SFSR) than to move back to Vinnytsia or to anywhere else in Ukraine (then the Ukrainian SSR).

    BTW, off-topic, but what exactly do you think that Ukraine’s population–without Crimea and the separatist-controlled parts of the Donbass, of course–is actually going to be when it hits rock bottom, whenever that might be? 20 million? 15 million? Even less than that?

    Also, was Ukrainian svidomies’ master plan always to push for European Union integration in order to generate economic distress in southern and eastern Ukraine so that more Ukrainians from those regions will emigrate–either to Russia or to European Union countries such as Poland–thus making Ukraine itself even more pro-svidomy?

  46. What other good stuff do they make?

  47. Give them another 50-100 years, and they could become exurbs of Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana) by then! 😉

    Moving the Kazakh capital to Nur-Sultan was VERY smart, BTW. It closed off the road to Karaganda, thus ensuring that any future revanchist Russian government would never be able to reclaim either Nur-Sultan or Karaganda–at least not without an extremely massive international outcry and extremely severe international sanctions!

  48. Californian Candidate says
  49. Yevardian says

    and Anatoly Karlin previously mentioned seeing a lot of South Asian people… in Poland on his visit there

    Disgusting!

  50. Blinky Bill says

    NSFW

    https://oc-media.org/features/looking-for-a-better-life-the-indians-coming-to-armenia/

    Indian immigration to Armenia has sharply increased in the last two years, with many coming to the country in search of a better life. However, endemic racism and human trafficking have revealed the dark side of the ‘Armenian dream’.

  51. demografie says

    I do agree. Czech think, they are equal with Germans or Anglo Saxon. Reality can not be futher from truth. We are lower for them African or Arabs. There are horrific crimes made against Slavs in Western Europe. Perpetrators usually get slap on the hand. Case in point, check recent soccer match between Slavia & Rangers. Possible racism is worse crime then murder attempt or beatings. It is future, we choosed.
    As for the population growth in Czech. It is done mostly by immigration and their higher natality. Another point was strong 80’s generation having children. Overall, Czech are going to have relatively more children then other countries in Europe. I do not understand why. We are degenerated, but still having a lot of children.
    Main immigraton driver were Slovaks and Ukranian. Most ukranians are coming from Western Ukraine. There are a lot higher status immigration from Russia and Central Asia.
    As for the economy, Czech economy is tight to German. We actively tried to abadon Russian or Chinese market. There are maybe 5 Czech companies. Every other company or bank is owned by German, Austrians, Dutch. And I do not see changes in future. There is strong american conservative streak in Czech society (proposal to introduce paid healtcare etc), which prevent to build strong national economy. Czech republic will prosper, if Germany prosper.

  52. demografie says

    Nah, USA is already working to create new problems for Russia in that region. I would say, anti-russian sentiment will grow in Kazachstan. Russians are leaving Kazachstan in droves. There can be made claim, that some borders regions in Kazachstan might joined Russia. It was possible in the 1990’s. Now, it is impossible. If Russia tried anything like that, there would be Turkish / American army bases all over Kazachstan.
    https://www.politnavigator.net/prosnutsya-v-osvencime-v-kazakhstane-podnimayu-golovu-antirossijjskie-sily.html?utm_source=politobzor.net

  53. Absolutely. Ukrainians that can only speak Belarusian are a rare breed. 🙂

  54. В Польше украинца посадили на цепь из-за граффити https://www.mk.ru/incident/2017/09/22/v-polshe-ukrainca-posadili-na-cep-izza-graffiti.html

    Поляки заставили украинца съесть бандеровский флаг https://www.kp.ru/online/news/3629823/

  55. BTW, off-topic, but what exactly do you think that Ukraine’s population–without Crimea and the separatist-controlled parts of the Donbass, of course–is actually going to be when it hits rock bottom, whenever that might be? 20 million? 15 million?

    Ukraine minus Donbas is projected to have 31 million people officially by 2050, so it will be something like 26 million in reality. I wouldn’t predict further out because too many trends can change. I suspect worst case would be around 20 million at some point further in the future.

  56. What AP says, though Central Ukraine also has very bad demographics, just like East Ukraine (the South is a bit better). The likes of Chernigov are Donbass-tier.

  57. With over a million (or is it 2 million) Ukrainians in Poland you are bound to find some incidents.

  58. To be specific, north-central (Chernigov and Sumy oblasts) is as bad as the East but places like Zhytomir and Vynnytsia are not quite as bad, in terms of natural population growth. But Kiev sucks out people from all of these oblasts. The Ukrainian-speakers in Kiev are more likely to be small town people from central Ukraine than arrivals from Galicia.

  59. No, I don’t. I’m not a cheese connoisseur. I occasionally get locally produced stracciatella and goat cheeses but that’s about it.

  60. Including rather patriotic ones: https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/indian-family-armenia-restaurant-free-meal-centre-refugees-1730909-2020-10-12

    While the nation has come together to help the refugees from the border areas, here is an Indian family living in Armenia for the past six years who are doing their bit for the country they now call their home.

    Parvez Ali Khan, a 47-year old Indian from Malerkotla in Punjab, has been running a restaurant ‘Indian Mehak’ for the past six years in Armenia. He lives in Yerevan with his wife and two daughters, who are studying.

    PS. I also hear there’s a lot of Indians in Georgia these days. Seems like Caucasoids and Indians get on well.

  61. Shortsword says

    In opinion polls Kazakhs are always shown to have very favorable opinion of Russia (around 90%). But you’re right. It could change with propaganda campaigns that drive anti-Russian nationalistic sentiment.

    But it would be very hard economically for Kazakhstan to have bad relations with Russia.

  62. AltanBakshi says

    so it will be something like 26 million in reality. I wouldn’t predict further out because too many trends can change. I suspect worst case would be around 20 million at some point further in the future.

    Ukrainian nationalism is pure madness! Hey Ukrops let’s sacrifice half of our pop, just so we can show to Putin khuilo and Moskali!

    If presented with similar choice in regards of Russia’s future, even I a rabid America hater would think that it would be better for Russia to be America’s vassal with the present population size in 2050, than an independent power with 70 million people.(I just joke/troll about nuclear war, isn’t it obvious? Except the early 1950s WWIII scenario, that would’ve been swell, tens of millions of PLC soldiers storming all over Asian mainland, Soviet Army on Rhein, eternal Anglo crying…)

    Ukrainian nationalism, literally worse for birthrates and demographics than Bolshevism!

  63. The most Bolshevized parts of Ukraine have the lowest TFR. The natural population growth in the most nationalistic parts of Ukraine is the least troublesome. Also, some Russian oblasts adjacent to Ukraine do not have much better TFRs.

  64. There was a long-standing Hindu presence in Baku:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinduism_in_Azerbaijan

  65. Free meal from an Indian restaurant, if you are dispossessed by an ethnic conflict, might be the least attractive inducement to multiculturalism possible.

  66. …There is strong american conservative streak in Czech society

    This is true and weird at the same time: unlike in most Central-Eastern European societies this uber-America worship is more prevalent among middle and lower class Czechs. They pride themselves on extreme pro-Americanism, mostly myths they have created in their minds. They often overdo their devotion to what they perceive to be any right-wing American policy. There is an element of self-denial in their attitudes, as if they wished to be someone else or to be somewhere else.

    It has to do with the Czech history that is not exactly heroic – the easy solution for many is to worship made-up heroism about America, a substitute life for people who had to keep their heads down in order to survive and often dislike their neighbours.

    The funny part is how they get most things about America wrong: they will wink-wink with white Americans about how the “blacks” are kept in place, how they are ecstatic that US bombed someone again, they ride silly bikes with Confederate flags, use anglo nicknames, dream of “Florida” etc… a sad assembly of confused people.

    In other CE countries the America-uber-alles fanatics are usually the big-city intellectuals who suffer from similar pretensions and are also often financially benefitting from it. For some reason among Czechs it has been a lower class mania.

  67. They will start churning out kids as soon as they are allowed to resume a normal life, as happens in most places where populations’ survival is threatened by war.

  68. There used to be a lot of Armenians in India but (according to wiki) most of them have gone back to Armenia.

    An Anglo-Armenian woman was one of the first (the first?) of any Indian classical singers to make recordings.

    Gauhar Jaan / Angelina Yeoward:
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Gauhar_Jaan.jpg

  69. Gerard1234 says

    I thought alot of it originates from the admiration of Woodrow Wilson by the Czechs, because of the advantageous post-WW1 borders?

  70. Where exactly are you getting these projected figures from?

  71. Why are southern Ukrainians breeding more–or at least losing less of their people to out-migration to other parts of Ukraine?

    I also wonder if central Ukraine would have had better demographics right now had it spent the 1921-1939 time period under Polish rule just like western Ukraine did in real life.

    In regards to Chernihiv (Chernigov) specifically, I previously saw some data that indicates that Chernihiv Oblast nowadays has even less people than it had back in 1926, which is EXTREMELY surprising!

  72. BTW, off-topic, but once Ukraine will actually become a developed country (at least Greek levels of GDP PPP per capita), just how much immigration do you think that it is actually going to get, and from where? It would certainly be interesting to compare the immigration trajectories of pro-Western Ukraine and Eurasian Russia and Belarus over the long(er)-run.

  73. One of the first things that came up when I searched:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/the-fastest-shrinking-countries-in-the-world-declining-populations

    The 35 million includes Donbas, so about 31 million without Donbas.

  74. I assume that is some sort of bindi, but I am not sure?

  75. Graffiti spammers abound around the world, not something unique to Ukrainian youth. Though the one in the second story had to be nuts to post Banderite insignias. It would be similar to a Pole trying to post some sort of pro-Pilsudski propaganda in Lviv. Bandera and Pilsudski are not returning from the grave anytime soon, it’s time to move on.

  76. I also wonder if central Ukraine would have had better demographics right now had it spent the 1921-1939 time period under Polish rule just like western Ukraine did in real life.

    It absolutely would have, and Ukraine had a perfect natural experiment that proves it.

    At the Treaty of Riga, the old tsarist-era Volhynia Governate was split in two: part of it went to Poland and part to the USSR. The Polish parts are Volyn and Rivne oblasts while the Soviet part was Zhytomir oblast. The former two oblasts skipped the Soviet experience from 1919-1939.

    The differences between these regions – both part of the same Governate, both ethnic Ukrainian, both Orthodox, are significant. TFR in Rivne and Volyn oblasts in 2016 were 1.86 and 1.73, respectively. In Zhytomir it was 1.54 (which was slightly better than the Ukrainian average of 1.47 that year):

    https://datatowel.in.ua/natural/birth-rate

    The 1919-1939 border also affects stuff like crime rate, abortion rate, and HIV rate. Rivne better than Zhytomir. But Zhytomir a lot better than the most Sovietized parts of Ukraine, in the Southeast.

    If Poland had managed to retain more territories in 1919, there would be many more Eastern Slavs around today. Not only by them not being starved to death in massive numbers in 1932-1933, but also due to ongoing higher fertility rate decades later. I included a lot of comparative stats in this old post:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/ukro-khazars-trying-to-appropriate-russian-culture/#comment-4162374

  77. Tell me if I’m wrong, but according to a well-educated Italian, I personally know, and who has studied languages, much of his life, he says that Ukrainians speak a variant, or “dialect” of the Russian language.

    No? Yes?

  78. Makes sense. I wonder if a similar trend is visible in western Belarus versus eastern Belarus.

    Also, do you ever actually see Poland losing western Ukraine if it wasn’t for Hitler and the Nazis coming to power in Germany? I know that even Weimar Germany vehemently detested the post-WWI peace settlement with Poland, with it viewing the Polish Corridor as intolerable and with it even waging a decade-long trade war (ironically ended by Hitler!) in an attempt to bully Poland to agree to territorial revisions, but whether a surviving Weimar Germany or some kind of right-wing but non-Nazi dictatorial regime in Germany would have ever actually been willing to go to war with Poland over Danzig and the Polish Corridor is certainly an extremely interesting question.

  79. I think that the 35 million figure for 2050 also includes Crimea, since it’s the same here and the United Nations (UN) still recognizes Crimea as being a part of Ukraine:

    https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/804

    So, instead of 31 million, it will actually be 29 million for Ukraine in 2050 since you’d have to subtract not only the Donbass, but also Crimea as well.

  80. Just how large do you think the Hindu presence in Greater Russia (so, Russia + Ukraine + Belarus + the Baltics + the Caucasus + Central Asia) would have been right now had Russia avoided the Bolshevik coup of 1917 and the 70+ years of Communist rule that subsequently followed this?

  81. Ukraine is at least 10 years behind Russia, and has less scope for breakout growth (you can’t become very rich off doing cheap assembly work for German firms or IT outsourcing), so if it were to become developed it’s pretty safe to say it won’t happen before 2050. By that time, the only region of the world to have a large youth bulge will be Sub-Saharan Africa. I suppose that is one nightmare scenario, finally become developed by 2050 (like Ireland by 2000 or Poland by 2025-30) and invite in millions of Africans to bolster a population that by then may be just 20% of Russia’s.

  82. Philip Owen says

    Belogorod is the success story within Russia’s agricultural success story. While profitable agriculture is confined to unprocessed field crops, food processing (eg meat production) has risen mightily, especially in Belogorod thus providing new decently paid jobs in stable, so far, enterprises. Productivity and profts are low despite being amongst the world’s most modern but for now, young familes in Belogorod probably feel secure.

  83. Philip Owen says

    In the Slavic world, a language is a dialect with an army. The same in the Romance world or the Scandinavian one.

  84. …admiration of Woodrow Wilson by the Czechs

    Good point, Wilson was great for Czechs (connection to Garrique-Masaryk). But that was long time ago, there are newer pathologies that have been feeding the mania. Czechs were obsessed with Westerns, resent being reminded of their meek WWII collaboration and enthusiastic embrace of communists after WWII (the only country where commies won in open elections).

    The sad thing is that most Czechs know history quite well and consciously choose to lie in order to please. It is a character issue more than anything else.

  85. Agreed that Ukraine is unlikely to become developed–or for that matter, a European Union member–before 2050.

    That said, though, a youth bulge is certainly extremely helpful for mass immigration, but not absolutely necessary for this. For instance, India. It might become as wealthy as Bulgaria and/or Romania by the late 21st century, but the sheer size of its population could still mean that there could be tens of millions of Indians who would still be willing to emigrate even if India would have already become a quasi-developed country by then. So, total numbers also matter here. 5% of India’s population doesn’t sound like very much, for instance, but it would still make up something like 70-80 million people by the late 21st century. Absolutely nothing to scoff at!

    And importing blacks, unless they’re cognitive elites, is unlikely to actually do Ukraine much good. It would solve its population problems but at the cost of even further dysgenics and possibly huge-scale racial tensions on top of that! Absolutely not worth it! Easier to import some of Israel’s excess Jewish population than to import blacks en masse; plus, Ukraine has a long Jewish history, so it could be viewed as being a form of historical justice and historical karma for Ukraine to actually do this.

  86. Interesting; thank you.

  87. By the way, as a side note, here’s one way for Russia to boost its population: Open its doors wide open to Israeli Jewish immigrants. In fact, it could even provide a lot of special Jewish cultural autonomy and whatnot specifically for the Jewish Autonomous Oblast (JAO) in order to get a lot of Israeli Jews to go and settle there. The clothing of Israeli Ultra-Orthodox Jews would fit in better there than it would in sunny Israel, after all. And the JAO is near the Chinese border, so any Jews who will move there could always travel to China in order to get a cheap bite of Chinese food. 🙂

  88. …wilkomen kultur…This really may work EU dissolution.

    It is an unsolvable dilemma because it is about deep, unchangeable emotions. Westerners (a majority, not all) are both deeply liberal and deeply nationalistic. The liberalism makes them welcome any scumbag from Africa who makes them feel better about themselves. The nationalism makes them forever resent their traditional eastern enemies who they consider as worse people. Prague can be 10 times nicer, safer, more fun than Berlin, London or Brussels – it is still eastern.

    You can change a lot about people, but it is usually impossible to change their emotions. I can see how this would break up EU. If Brussels is stupid enough to send a lot of migrants to V4, they might be surprised. Orban is just the tip of the iceberg.

  89. Blinky Bill says

    Behold the Sino Slavic Jew.

    Nina Brosh was born in Ramat Yishai to a father of Russian-Jewish heritage and a Chinese mother. On her father’s side, she is a great-granddaughter of rabbi Yehuda Leib Maimon.

    During the 1990s, she led campaigns for brands such as Givenchy, Yves Saint Laurent, Dolce & Gabbana, Chanel, Dior, DKNY, Bebe and Miu Miu. In the 1990s, she appeared on the covers of magazines such as Vogue and Elle.

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRSxcIFfjv748jekn0uYtDGCy8Xb8qyzqnW1Q&usqp.jpg

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSeqIqdB1yJa-EWymzt8nlipBFI-HAodUC31A&usqp.jpg

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQLHg6yOh3U8NSTW7YVVPgJ4hdpAoPDL-LBEA&usqp.jpg

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSidjmVf9Ta2bZLt4idX8XuG_J0uKsDQwE7Zg&usqp.jpg

  90. AltanBakshi says

    Even the Manchus learned the Agriculture part pretty quickly.

    No Manchu toiled the land, but their Han and Korean slaves did.

    If only for a moment, those horse nomads really glowed brightly. Just goes to show, though, better to be advanced, urban, and agricultural.

    Horse nomads had their moment of glory for over 3000 years, only in the 18th century they started to lose and civilized people gained an upper hand.

    Still, I’m fond of them. I think FTL Space Travel will make being an Ubermensch Nomad cool (meaning, a valid and powerful civilizational choice) again.

    I hope so!

    http://www.manchuarchery.org/images/wufu.jpg

  91. What other good stuff do they make?

    I’m not an expert; but I found an interesting site.

    https://visit-kaliningrad.ru/en/charm/food.php

    It sounds like fish, especially smoked halibut, smoked eel, smoked bream, and pike are local favorites.

    According to the site, people buy smoked bream as a souvenir.

  92. Or as I like to call them, pony pirates.

  93. Reg Cæsar says

    Well, they won’t be building that bridge to Alaska anytime soon. Or the 150-mile or 2,000-mile roads to connect them to the nearest highways to the east and west, respectively.

  94. In the Slavic world, a language is a dialect with an army. The same in the Romance world or the Scandinavian one.

    The version I’ve heard is: The difference between a language and a dialect is a dialect doesn’t have an air force.

  95. 4Dchessmaster says

    I think a lot of pro-Armenian sentiment lately from India comes as Pakistan and Turkey seem to be getting closer.

  96. Yevardian says

    “Pure” Ukrainian is quite rarely spoken, most of the time the ‘Ukrainian’ spoken around the country is some variety of Surzhik (mixed Russian/Ukrainian pidgin). Although, however fake and gay Ukraine may be as a country, I still couldn’t technically call Ukrainian a ‘Russian dialect’, because that would imply that it branched off from Modern Russian in recent times, rather than following a separate path of development for centuries.. albeit as Polish serfs under Jewish bailiffs.
    Probably also him being Italian might give him a chauvinistic attitude about languages vs dialects, for example Sicilian and Sardinian are considered as ‘dialects’ with no official recognition despite being completely unintelligible with Tuscan/Standard ‘Italian’, Sardinian in particular being strongly divergent, less intelligible to a Milanese than say, Spanish.

  97. Vishnugupta says

    Indians generally support any nation which has suffered horribly under Islamic rule.

    Turkey has been Pakistan ‘s close ally since the 1950s when both were part of CENTO and has consistently supported its position on Kashmir.

    For what little it mattered we always supported Greece in retaliation. Now there is talk of passing resolutions recognizing the Armenian genocide in retaliation to Erdogan’s repeated references to Kashmir at the UNGA meeting.

  98. Blinky Bill says

    Istanbul–Tehran–lslamabad railway or (ITI Train) is an international freight train service between Islamabad, Pakistan and Istanbul, Turkey via Tehran, Iran.

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR0jsk25TwJKnZae6cmddr9Dnm3K-ItEEYooQ&usqp.jpg

    https://www.dw.com/en/is-the-pakistan-iran-turkey-rail-link-economically-viable/a-56225236

    It will take a lot less time to travel from Istanbul to Islamabad via train (11 days) than the sea route, which takes up to 21 days.

  99. “Pure” Ukrainian is quite rarely spoken, most of the time the ‘Ukrainian’ spoken around the country is some variety of Surzhik (mixed Russian/Ukrainian pidgin

    It is spoken as a first language by about 45% of people in Ukraine. Almost everyone in the Western part of the country that was annexed in 1939 (about 25% of Ukraine’s population now that Donbas and Crimea are gone) and most villagers and small town dwellers in the central, and some southern and eastern parts speak primarily Ukrainian. There is somewhat of a blurry line between Ukrainian and surzhyk when spoken by people outside western Ukraine. Only about 10%-15% of the capital Kiev speaks Ukrainian as a primary language though all the signs are in Ukrainian and the people are capable of speaking it. Lviv is the opposite of Kiev – it has the largest ethnic Russian population in Western Ukraine and about 15% of the people there are Russophones. This number is shrinking, because products of intermarriage are Ukrainian-speaking.

  100. AltanBakshi says

    For some reason the achievements of non-Muslim pirates have been quite low, historically speaking, or how many lands were run by western pirates? Just a few hundred years ago most of North African coast was a land of pirates.

    There’s nothing honourable in piracy, Romans were right that pirates were Hostis humani generis. But horse riding is the basis of chivalry, and nomads have always believed in honour.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a6/Knight-Iran.JPG
    Though a depicted horserider here is Sassanid Persian, 1/3 of Mongol cavalry was heavy lancers, not just cavalry archers. Even our blessed sage Buddha Gautama was a master of horseriding. How he lived his horse, Kanthaka, and how it hurt him to leave his horse behind when he left and started life of holiness and ascesis. It is said that Kanthaka died from grief.

    “Kanthaka is first described in relation to the events leading up to the marriage of Siddhartha to Yasodhara, another Sakyan princess. By the customs of the kshatriya Sakyan clan, a prince must prove his worthiness in warrior related skills such as horse-riding, mounted archery and swordplay by defeating other royals in such contests. Mounted on Kanthaka, Siddhartha defeated his cousin Devadatta in archery, another cousin Anuruddha in a horse-riding competition and then half-brother Nanda in swordplay.”

  101. Showmethereal says

    Good points. I dont know Eastern European demographics – so I come to stories like here to learn. But I do k ow Chinese demographics..
    You are correct… Mongolia the country doesnt even use Mongolian script – but the Mongols in China do. The Mongols in China have no desire to live in Mongolia itself.
    Kind of like the Tibetans. Most westerners have no clue that the majority of Tibetans in dont live in Tibet itself but are spread in neighboring parts of China and have no desire to move back up higher on the plateau their forebears left – in some cases – literally centuries ago.

  102. Showmethereal says

    Yes – the world overall is urbanizing. Urban people have less children overall so the fertility rate can almost always be expected to drop

  103. Showmethereal says

    Where do czechs stand in the Russia/Europe divide? Are they more pro one side or more neutral?

  104. Gerard1234 says

    I was actually about to make this as the main essence of my point to some other retard involved in disinformation, although I have mentioned it several other times, – urban families should be expected to be smaller.

    My mum there grew up on a farm, 1 of 8 kids, my father grew up in a city and is 1 of 3 brothers and sister.

    My maternal grandmother grew up in the city – 1 of 4 kids, my maternal grandfather grew up on a farm – 1 of 12 kids! I would consider my parents and maternal grandparents to have near-identical moral codes.

  105. Thanks.

    I didn’t know that the Mongols had so many heavy lancers.

    I didn’t know about Kanthaka, either.

    Very interesting stuff.

    If you consider Vikings to be western pirates, pirates have conquered a lot of territory. Russia was founded by Vikings, Vikings conquered much of England, Vikings conquered Normandy; and their Norman descendants conquered Sicily, southern Italy, Malta, Antioch, and England; and their Anglo-Norman descendants conquered Ireland.

  106. This number is shrinking, because products of intermarriage are Ukrainian-speaking.

    And also because speaking Russian has become more stigmatized throughout Ukraine since 2014, no?

  107. This railroad should also ideally be connected to Central Asia through Tehran and Mashhad.

  108. She almost doesn’t look East Asian at all.

  109. It was shrinking even before that. Lots of Russian-speakers left Lviv right after independence (IIRC it was 30% Russian speaking back then). The ones who remain are typically married to Ukrainians, part of the community, and therefore comfortable with the Ukrainian nationalism around them; their kids are Ukrainian-speaking. I have an aunt like that. The others are some marginals who were left behind and didn’t have the means to leave. They are kind of sad – I once saw some old shabbily dressed Russian-speaking drunks in the city, a living negative stereotype.

  110. Khan is a Muslim last name, no? And aren’t Parvez and Ali Muslim first names?

  111. So, the Russians who remained in Lviv are comparable in quality to Donbass Sovoks?

  112. Also, another question for you: Just how much worse do you think that the Jews of central Ukraine would have fared in regards to evacuating from the Nazis in 1941–and thus in regards to escaping and surviving the Holocaust–had they been a part of Poland between 1921 and 1939 and only become a part of the Soviet Union in 1939 like their Galician and Volhynian brethren did in real life?

  113. AltanBakshi says

    Yes, you are right about the vikingr.

  114. showmethereal says

    Agreed. That’s why South Korea and Singapore have such low birth rates now. South Korea is over 80% and Singapore is basically 100%. And yes – my family generational rates mirror yours.

  115. Belarusian Dude says

    Surzhyk is a transitional tongue that combines elements of Russian and Ukrainian but its not very pronounced most people will have either Russian or Ukrainian