Nature Index 2020

UPDATE – Emil Kirkegaard has kindly graphed all these trends at his RPubs blog.

Has been released.

Here is the updated “state of the noosphere” (percentage of global high-quality scientific research produced by country, as proxied by the Nature Index FC).

Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 pc12/19
1 USA 37.15% 36.49% 34.88% 35.00% 34.57% 34.10% 32.87% 31.40% -2.4%
2 China 8.95% 10.21% 11.97% 12.91% 13.97% 15.83% 18.49% 21.14% 12.3%
3 Germany 8.00% 8.00% 7.85% 7.84% 7.76% 7.60% 7.37% 7.08% -1.7%
4 UK 6.45% 6.43% 6.35% 6.49% 6.55% 6.28% 6.03% 5.88% -1.3%
5 Japan 6.83% 6.60% 6.24% 5.74% 5.48% 5.32% 4.93% 4.71% -5.3%
6 France 4.63% 4.39% 4.33% 4.09% 4.00% 3.76% 3.54% 3.49% -4.0%
7 Canada 3.02% 2.91% 2.91% 3.00% 2.73% 2.69% 2.62% 2.50% -2.7%
8 Switzerland 2.33% 2.29% 2.51% 2.27% 2.33% 2.30% 2.26% 2.32% 0.0%
9 South Korea 2.35% 2.26% 2.29% 2.39% 2.30% 2.23% 2.19% 2.24% -0.7%
11 Australia 1.70% 1.84% 1.86% 2.05% 2.03% 1.85% 2.04% 1.96% 2.1%
10 Spain 2.37% 2.31% 2.13% 2.01% 2.08% 1.87% 1.87% 1.81% -3.9%
13 India 1.45% 1.67% 1.82% 1.60% 1.57% 1.67% 1.55% 1.62% 1.6%
12 Italy 2.14% 2.12% 2.04% 2.00% 1.81% 1.76% 1.65% 1.60% -4.1%
14 Netherlands 1.52% 1.49% 1.48% 1.45% 1.61% 1.55% 1.50% 1.45% -0.7%
16 Sweden 0.94% 0.97% 1.00% 1.11% 1.01% 1.03% 1.01% 0.97% 0.5%
17 Israel 1.03% 0.93% 0.96% 1.03% 1.03% 1.01% 0.98% 0.95% -1.2%
15 Singapore 0.92% 0.95% 1.02% 0.99% 0.95% 1.04% 0.98% 0.95% 0.4%
19 Russia 0.59% 0.68% 0.72% 0.65% 0.69% 0.70% 0.75% 0.73% 2.9%
20 Belgium 0.69% 0.64% 0.68% 0.70% 0.78% 0.68% 0.66% 0.64% -1.0%
22 Denmark 0.59% 0.58% 0.62% 0.63% 0.69% 0.62% 0.66% 0.60% 0.2%
18 Taiwan 1.18% 1.06% 0.95% 0.84% 0.77% 0.73% 0.63% 0.58% -10.1%
21 Austria 0.53% 0.55% 0.62% 0.54% 0.58% 0.64% 0.59% 0.57% 1.0%
23 Brazil 0.39% 0.46% 0.46% 0.40% 0.44% 0.45% 0.49% 0.44% 1.4%
24 Poland 0.35% 0.42% 0.41% 0.42% 0.36% 0.38% 0.38% 0.39% 1.5%
25 Czechia 0.23% 0.23% 0.24% 0.27% 0.30% 0.33% 0.32% 0.36% 6.1%

There’s no major change to existing trends:

  • Slow decline of the West (on average -2.0% per annum since 2012), at about the same rate in both the US (-2.4%) and the EU-28 (-1.9%). Even so, the “West” still accounts for 65% of the world total, if down from 74% in 2012.
    • Within the West, broadly speaking, Switzerland (its 8 million people accounting for a stunning ~2.3% of science production), the Scandinavians, Western Offshoots (Australia, Canada), and the EU-13 are keeping their share steady, while the Med is plummeting at ~4% per annum.
  • East Asia increases its share from 13% to 25%, of which more than 100% is accounted for by China.
    • As expected, China continues soaring (12% per annum since 2012), increasing its share from 9% to 21%. We can expect this to continue in light of China’s still unrealized potential and perhaps the greater freedom of inquire it offers its scientists relative to the increasingly SJW-ridden West (e.g. see this excellent essay by Wael Taji Miller).
  • No major changes elsewhere: In terms of share of global science production, India remains stuck at ~1.6%, Latin America at 1.0%, Dar al-Islam at 0.7%, and Russia and the V4 countries at ~0.7% each.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) has shown strong growth since 2015, increasing from 0.05% of world science production to 0.08% – a rate of increase similar to China. But, that’s only four years – and from an almost imperceptibly low base.
  • As I wrote in another recent article on The Nature Index, even within the northern core that produces ~95% of global elite-level science, just a few dozen cities/institutions account for the overwhelming bulk of it.

I don’t really have anything add to my existing analysis at The Geography of the Noosphere. Just an update that the data continues to back up its general conclusions – namely, (1) no “ice people” = no more science progress, and (2) Sinotriumph, so far as trends in global distribution of science production go.

More Kirkegaard graphs


Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. Not Raul says

    I noticed large declines in Taiwan (maybe partially due to brain drain to PRC) and Japan.

  3. Europe Europa says

    England and parts of the US and Australia are the only Western countries still in lock down. This has clearly been done because internationally hardly anyone likes the US/UK and Anglo countries, so if they see them taken down first then psychologically they are more likely to comply with the NWO agenda.

    If they don’t take the Anglo countries down first, then other countries won’t comply because they will be angry that the loathed Anglos aren’t getting the same treatment. The NWO plan is clearly to destroy Anglo economies and societies first before bringing the rest into line.

    The fact the only region showing strong growth is black Africa just goes to prove that blacks will be the main or even sole winners of all this turmoil (out of the goyim at least). I guess when your economic and societal baseline is a mud hut, this new controlled, technocratic order that is coming in is of great benefit to Africans. Everyone elses way of life and standard of living is being reduced to some degree whereas the only way is up for black Africans.

    Also, the elites clearly see value in Africans as the foot soldiers and enforcers of their NWO. They’re very violent, aggressive and easily manipulated to hate and terrorise any given population, mostly whites, but lack the intelligence to question who the controllers are, or if they do “question” things it normally amounts to “We waz kangz” nonsense.

  4. Europe Europa says

    Lately I notice a lot posts on right wing sites saying that the UN and WHO should recognise Taiwan as an independent country, etc, and Trump implying the same, yet I don’t get the impression that is what most Taiwanese people even want.

    The idea of Taiwan as a fully recognised country in its own right probably has less support than Catalan and Basque independence do, yet I doubt most right wingers would support the later?

  5. Dieter Kief says

    Czechia’s 6% growth rate is remarkable, isn’t it?

    (The managed also to react cool as a nation to CO-19 and managed to achieve very good numbers so far (low death rate of 28/ million)- that seems to fit in nicely with their scientific progress).

  6. The NWO plan is clearly to destroy Anglo economies and societies

    wtf i love the NWO now

  7. inertial says
  8. Found the Anglo.

    Hey Anglo, how bout you get everyone in your country to wear masks and stop blaming conspiracy theories for your abysmal performance.

  9. I am re-posting my earlier comment in another thread with the same author, for people who may be interested in complementary info of Nature Index:

    The Nature index does not have mathematics and computer science divisions. This is rather unfortunate. These two are important areas have very different supporting facilities and investment requirements than the Nature’s divisions. China, a later comer in both, are quite strong due to its strength in supercomputers, communication and AI big data.

    Readers might also be interested in the following link [1], which gives ranking of many areas.

    In 2018, for example China published 63363 math papers with 25577 citations, whereas US published 41403 with 18830 citations [2].

    However, looking at cumulative numbers (from 1996-2018), US still has overwhelming lead with 690747 math papers and 10094819 citations vs China 545567 papers with 3079700 citations [3].


  10. Not Raul says

    Catalonian Independence & Basque Independence make more sense, considering that they are significantly different cultures from Spanish.

    I think that a lot of right wingers aren’t educated about Subsidiarity.

  11. Voltarde says

    Decline of US and rise of PRC are both underestimates. Many of the best US-affiliated STEM faculty principal investigators, post-doctoral fellows, and graduate students are PRC citizens. Lower-tier U.S. academic institutions can still recruit PRC citizen faculty whose credentials and achievements are far better than these institutions could ever recruit otherwise, but the quality of their PRC citizen post-doctoral fellows and graduate students is declining as now these candidates have the option to return to first-class research environments back home, or never have to leave in the first place. Top-tier universities can still recruit superstar PRC citizen faculty and outstanding PRC citizen post-doctoral fellows and graduate students–for now. Over the past 35 years PRC citizens working in the US as mathematicians, scientists, and engineers have contributed trillions of dollars to increased US economic output. Even the most nativist US citizen STEM graduate who managed to get a tenure-track faculty position would not hesitate to hire PRC citizen graduate students and post-doctoral fellows given their qualifications, achievements, and work ethic. Sinophobia equals US STEM output decline with corresponding economic implications. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the PRC government surreptitiously contributing campaign funds to the most vociferous sinophobes among the US political class.

  12. Europe Europa says

    I’ve concluded most “right wingers” must be half wits. All Breitbart London posters and “journalists” like Delingpole do lately is complain about the lock down, and yet today there was a big protest in London against the lock down and Breitbart and their posters totally ignore it.

    Clearly they only want their readers to whinge about politics in an echo chamber, they wouldn’t want to encourage them to actually protest and stand up for themselves, especially against Tory policy.

    British right wingers do nothing but complain on forums, they never actually protest about anything and if anyone does they usually just dismiss them as “immigrants” or “socialists”.

    I really don’t get it, it’s like they enjoy going round in circles complaining in echo chambers as an outlet but don’t really want to seriously challenge the status quo.

  13. Blinky Bill says


    NASA researcher arrested over alleged secret China connections
    According to the FBI affidavit, the NASA contracting officer overseeing Mr Ang’s grant said that if they had of know about Mr Ang’s involvement with China, they would not have awarded the contract

    A university professor funded by NASA has been arrested

    The FBI arrested University of Arkansas professor Simon Saw-Teong Ang, 63, for allegedly defrauding NASA and the university “by failing to disclose that he held other positions at a Chinese university and Chinese companies”.

    An electrical engineering professor and researcher at the University of Arkansas-Fayetteville since 1988, Mr Ang was charged with one count of wire fraud for not including his ties to China on a successful grant submission to NASA worth more than half a million dollars.

    “These materially false representations to NASA and the University of Arkansas resulted in numerous wires to be sent and received that facilitated Ang’s scheme to defraud,” the Department of Justice said in a statement.

    In an affidavit to the US District Court for the Western District of Arkansas, unsealed on Monday, FBI special agent Jonathan Willett alleged that Mr Ang failed to report his involvement in China’s Thousand Talents Scholar program between 2012 and 2018, apart from one year’s disclosure in 2014.

    “Talent plans integrate foreign technology into China by recruiting experts from businesses and universities across the globe to fill technical jobs that drive innovation and growth in the economy,” Mr Willett wrote in the affidavit.

    “Various Chinese government talent programs use financial, personal, and professional benefits in exchange for working with universities, businesses and state-owned enterprises in China.”

    Since 2013, Mr Ang has been either the primary investigator or co-investigator on US government-funded grant contracts totalling more than $5m from NASA, the National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, and the Department of Defence, according to the affidavit.

    It is alleged that Mr Ang committed the wire fraud in connection to a successful 2016 submission to NASA without disclosing his participation in the Thousand Talents program or work with Chinese companies, including Binzhou Maotong Electronic Technology, Binzhou Gande Electronic Technology and Jiangsu Xuanzhi New Materials and Technology.

    According to the FBI affidavit, the NASA contracting officer overseeing Mr Ang’s grant said that if they had of know about Mr Ang’s involvement with China, they would not have awarded the contract.

    “Specifically the CO [Contracting Officer] pointed out that Ang’s associations with PRC companies would have been an immediate red flag,” the affidavit said.

    Mr Ang’s alleged Chinese connections were revealed when a university employee found a hard drive in the campus library and looked through emails to find the owner.

    In one 2018 email exchange between with a visiting researcher from Xidian University in Xian, China, Mr Ang said the current political climate was making his situation at the university difficult.

    “You can search the Chinese website regarding what the US will do to Thousand Talent Scholars,” Ang wrote, according to the affidavit.

    “Not many people here know I am one of them but if this leaks out, my job here will be in deep troubles [sic]. I have to be very careful or else I may be out of my job from this university.”

    “After you read this e-mail, please delete for safety sake as any e-mail can be retrieved.”

    In a statement to The Independent, University of Arkansas spokesman John Thomas said Mr Ang had been suspended.

    “Simon Ang has been suspended without pay from his responsibilities with the university and the university is actively cooperating with the federal investigation in this matter,” Mr Thomas said.

    In a College of Engineering Facebook post dating back to 2011, the university said that Mr Ang was also the honorary president of Xi’an Aeronautical Polytechnic College in Xi’an, China.

    “He helped set up the first Boeing-certified aircraft maintenance engineering program in China. This program trains and certifies students to work on Boeing aircraft,” the post says.

    If convicted, Mr Ang faces a maximum of 20 years in prison.

  14. Nice cope to the shambolic response in Russian to corona?

  15. Blinky Bill says
  16. EldnahYm says

    Lately I notice a lot posts on right wing sites saying that the UN and WHO should recognise Taiwan as an independent country, etc, and Trump implying the same, yet I don’t get the impression that is what most Taiwanese people even want.

    Many people are going to have a more negative view of China after COVID-19. Certain interests in the U.S. will try to use this as an opportunity to push various irrational foreign policy moves. One can make a case that it is sensible to be skeptical about economic dependence on China, the Chinese presence in international institutions like the WHO, Chinese tourists, or Chinese students. But no serious American or European interests are at stake regarding Taiwan or for example Xinjiang. The foreign policy types will be active pushing these issues however.

  17. Europe Europa says

    Ironically most of types who want Taiwan internationally recognised and Hong Kong independence would be against Xinjiang independence because they’re Muslims, huge double standards there.

  18. Amerimutt Golems says

    As expected, China continues soaring (12% per annum since 2012), increasing its share from 9% to 21%. We can expect this to continue in light of China’s still unrealized potential and perhaps the greater freedom of inquire it offers its scientists relative to the increasingly SJW-ridden West (e.g. see this excellent essay by Wael Taji Miller).

    SJW zealots are mostly idiots, but a dangerous kind.

    The Chinese stand to ‘inherit’ the earth by default.

    Academic journal accepts ‘Feminist Mein Kampf’

  19. Amerimutt Golems says

    “With 57% of its researchers coming from other countries, Switzerland is the country with the world highest proportion of foreign researchers.”

    CERN is a factor and outputs about 900 papers each year (website).

    However, spending on R&D is around 3% of GDP, among the highest in the world. The country also did produce Euler and even Dirac (Swiss father).

  20. If Taiwan weren’t so scared of being invaded and punished by China they would all be for total independence. They are already for it but they are happy to sort of save China’s face to avoid punishment.

  21. Blinky Bill says

    (e.g. see this excellent essay by Wael Taji Miller).

    Wael Taji Miller is a graduate student in behavioral economics and neuroscience at Peking University, in China. Wael is from an ethnically European background but converted to Islam at one point, before becoming a Coptic Christian (listen to the podcast for details).

  22. Yes, because they are exactly the same and a Muslim terror movement equals one of the most peaceful and competent states in the world (Taiwan).


  23. Kent Nationalist says

    They’re very violent, aggressive and easily manipulated to hate and terrorise any given population, mostly whites, but lack the intelligence to question who the controllers are, or if they do “question” things it normally amounts to “We waz kangz” nonsense.

    In the course of my pelvic floor research earlier, I came across a Nigerian paper where they thanked God at the end for making the research possible. I thought that was nice.

  24. another anon says

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see the PRC government surreptitiously contributing campaign funds to the most vociferous sinophobes among the US political class.

    We all know that brilliant Russian propaganda swayed American voters to support Sanders and to elect Trump.

    All conspiracy theories aside, do you think that Chinese leaders (late Boomers or early Xers) can understand western politics enough to manipulate it succesfully?

  25. Well how many cases does Russia have right now and they are still getting 10000 a day? How many cases did China, Korea, or Vietnam have before they pretty much managed to bring theirs to a halt?

  26. Almost Missouri says

    How is the final “pc12/19” column calculated? I can’t reproduce it.

  27. Blinky Bill says
  28. Europe Europa says

    Irish republicanism is also a violent terror movement, but I don’t suppose you have a problem with the Irish Republic as an internationally recognised independent state and I doubt Irish republican terrorism will ever fully end unless NI becomes part of that Republic.

    I suppose you don’t give a shit about that though because they’re not Muslim?

  29. Scary Bird says

    Dear God what on Earth are you on about? Calm down and try and look at things in a level-headed manner instead of filling your head with wild and unfounded ideas. Countries like Singapore and Russia are still on lockdown. Very few countries have returned completely back to normal as the reopening is being one slowly. Try and realize that different countries decide to do different things for different reasons to different results and not everything is some grand co-ordinated scheme.

  30. Blinky Bill says

    It’s the percentage increase/decrease that must occur each year to get from the 2012 number to the 2019 number. He then rounded it to one decimal place. Hence the number for Switzerland is zero when it should be slightly negative.

  31. Yeah, a shitton of Serbs do their research there. So we do have the capacity, but we’re missing something else to be strong scientifically…

    I blame it on the eggheads being autochauvinistic cucks, tbh. Scratch that, don’t need em

  32. AnonFromTN says

    I don’t have stats, but here is my anecdotal evidence: among four “Swiss” scientists I collaborate with one is Austrian, one German, one Indian, and one Swiss.

  33. songbird says

    I’m surprised that Singapore comes out ahead of Russia.

    I wonder if there is any exogenous reason besides per capita and average IQ.

  34. AnonFromTN says

    In fact, the most dishonest way of publishing in “elite” journals is to add a big name “contributor”, whose only contribution often is the name. Anyway, higher proportion of papers in high-impact journals turns out to be untrue than in mid-range journals.

  35. They’re dumb but not as dumb as the Muslim mentalists. Ok?

  36. Maybe English being Singapore’s primary language of business and academia helps

  37. The devil is in the culture. In the West, the culture is always to achieve, to be #1. To create. To imagine. In China, the culture is always don’t color outside the lines. Don’t be independent. Don’t draw attention to yourself. Don’t use abstract thought, it’s dangerous. As a result, the Chinese don’t invent, they steal scientific ideas. They steal designs. They steal culture. So it doesn’t matter how much the Chinese do scientific research, they’ll always be inhibited to use it without big brother’s blessing.

  38. AnonFromTN says

    In China, the culture is always don’t color outside the lines.

    Based on personal experience, I doubt that. I had four Chinese post-docs and one Chinese grad student in the lab, and I did not notice any lack of creativity compared to others. In fact, two out of the four post-docs were among the best I ever had, and the grad student was also among the top three I had. The dumbest and the least creative post-docs I had were one Russian (Tatar), two Indians and one American. The worst (dumb and lazy) grad student I had was also American, although the other two out of three best were Americans, as well. So, I’d be reluctant to generalize. Just saying.

  39. Almost Missouri says

    Yeah that was my initial theory too, but I get some variances. Specifically, China, Taiwan, Brazil and Czechia are all understated by a third to three quarters of a percentage point. Japan, Spain and Russia are understated by a tenth to a fifth of a percentage point.

    You may say, fractions of a percent are not much, but we’re talking about annual compound rates so it adds up. Or consider that the average change rate is between a quarter and a third of one percent, so four countries having errors larger than that and three more being barely below that is a pretty big variance.

    Anyway, it’s just strange that these change figures, which should reproduce consistently, seem to be staggered around a bit.

  40. Thulean Friend says

    India is probably the most interesting country on that list, given that they will have the largest human population on Earth within a few years, overtaking China, and then max out at ~1.7 billion a few decades from now.

    They are much younger than China, and their fertility decline is far gentler and more natural than the brutish state planning approach of the Chinese. Hence, their aging will be more graceful and prolonged, giving them some amount of time to get their act together.

    India’s share of the index not increasing more is probably directly correlated to massive brain drain. Whenever I read Indian media, it appears that having a Western passport is a key national priority. I doubt it is, but Indian elites tend to conflate their own personal preferences with state objectives.

    India’s lockdown was brutal, probably more than anywhere else in the world except Wuhan, yet their cases have kept creeping up regardless! A contrast to Vietnam, which has not recorded a single death(!) is instructive. As a result, India will likely face economic declines as bad as anywhere in the world with scarce resources to marshal. This will not amelioriate the ongoing braindrain any time soon.

    I still think having multiple centers of innovation is the optimal outcome for humanity, so China doing better is a Good Thing™ for everyone. More innovation means faster progress for humanity. Unlocking more regions can only mean more progress. For complex reasons, India does not appear capable to match China, or come reasonably close. A major reason why the world grew so fast from 2000-2012 was because of the Chinese supercycle that lifted all boats. India was supposed to replicate that a few decades later but this now seems a forlorn hope. That’s not good for world prosperity in the long run.

  41. songbird says

    is far gentler and more natural than the brutish state planning approach of the Chinese.

    Taiwan has a TFR of about 1.1. The one-child policy was stupid, but if it had any effect, arguably it has long since washed out.

    given that they will have the largest human population on Earth within a few years, overtaking China, and then max out at ~1.7 billion a few decades from now.

    Quite scary. Imagine Indians feeling even more secure about not facing the negative effects of replacement migration – safe to participate in diversity rhetoric and with the surplus numbers required to participate in the invasion, and the economic scale to lobby the treasonous politicians of the West to keep the gates open.

  42. A world where ice people hold all the power is dangerous for those better adapted to the sun light, so it’s good that China’s working so valiantly to try and strike a balance.

    Yet, some people question the conventional wisdom that dumping large sums of money into R&D is the key to prosperity and improved living standards. Though all super powers do it, most of the research has little trickle down effect to the masses other than bragging rights for the lowly countrymen and women who relish the feeling of telling everyone that their ppl is smart! In China’s case it’s necessary, as it once was for the U.S. and Russia, however one can’t deny that it sets a bad precedent for the world’s poorer countries. It’s the reason why Brazil is aggressively courting researchers from Europe instead of creating jobs for its poverty-stricken masses.

    The west achieved the highest standard of living in the world mostly by having a system of agriculture that generates large surpluses of food, thereby giving them more leisure time to focus on things like education and research. With the exception of America and maybe the UK, the high standard of living will remain even if research output wanes in the future.

  43. “Though all super powers do it, most of the research has little trickle down effect to the masses other than bragging rights for the lowly countrymen and women who relish the feeling of telling everyone that their ppl is smart! In China’s case it’s necessary, …”

    Actually, early Chinese communist leaders understood this. So they directed their top talents to the most urgent and pressing needs of the country rather the hottest and sexiest research. For example, in the 1960s and 70s, after the breakup with Soviet and feeling totally isolated and threatened, they recruited a long list of top physicists to embark on a series of military catch ups. So, instead of finding the next high energy particle or the grand unified theory, they managed to create the atomic bomb, hydrogen bomb, guided missile, satellite, nuclear submarine, ICBM, etc. None reached the sophistication of Soviet or US, but still commendable achievements. Same for their mathematicians. Top genius like Hua Luogeng redirected his research to applied math and his effort to the popularization of math knowledge. Overall, the country sacrificed the bragging rights in exchange for tangible results.

    Today, many westerners still like to argue the lack of Nobel Laureates and Field Medalists as evidence of Chinese’s lack of creativity. That ignores this part of the history. Also, it doesn’t explain the performance of overseas Chinese, which has only a fraction of the population but claim multiple times more winners than their mainland counterparts.

  44. Blinky Bill says
  45. OT FYI: Sweden vs. Europe: 30 European countries are compared. Population density correlates with deaths/million data. The population density explains 28% of variance in 30 countries mortality data. When the four top outliers (Sweden, Ireland, France and Belgium) are removed the population density explains 57% of variance in data. The data presented in the following graph are deaths/million divided by the population density. This dividing reduces the variance in data for the 26 countries by factor of two. Sweden is the worst outlier. It is 4SD above the median and 12 times higher than median. Only four countries (Sweden, Ireland, France, Belgium) are 1SD above the median. Austria, Slovenia, Portugal and Norway are closest to the median. Slovakia, Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria are the best performing countries and Ireland, France and Belgium are the worst performing countries among those which implemented countermeasures.

    The population density was corrected for the uninhabited areas. For instance this correction increases Spain’s population density by factor of 7.9 while Belgium’s by factor of 1.2 only as compared with the arithmetic population density. By this metric Spain is the most densely lived country in Europe followed by Netherlands, UK, Italy and Belgium.

    If we were able to calculate Disease Effective Population Density (DEPD) where each fatality is assigned the population density of the square kilometer where he/she lived or got infected and then summed up and divided by the number of fatalities then even more than 57% of variance would be removed from the mortality data.

  46. Europe Europa says

    I think you’re describing traditional US culture, not “Western culture” as a whole which is not monolithic.

    The high achieving “go getta” culture you’re describing does not apply particularly well to countries like France or Spain in my opinion, or even Germany. I’d say they are more like the Chinese example where thinking outside the box and individuality are discouraged in favour of strong cultural norms and traits and people are expected to “stay in their place” far more.

  47. I have no doubts about Chinese creativity and think China will reap economic benefits from its investments in science research. My point was that other countries won’t, specifically those lacking pipelines to facilitate the transformation of lab inventions into commercial products. I was talking not about building military weapons, but industries around new technologies. For some countries, investment in science research mostly serves the purpose of raising or maintaining the country’s intellectual status.

  48. I am not very familiar with publishing practices in modern western academia. When I would pour through the peer-reviewed articles in databases, it seemed to me that a significant chunk, maybe the majority, of the available material was either nonsense or useless.

    How do we measure “high-quality” here? I am wondering how exactly these statistics are produced.

  49. Astuteobservor II says

    Damn, 80% of the comments here are made by retards. Simply unreadable.

  50. bob sykes says

    Right on. About one-fourth to one-third of all graduate students in our STEM programs are Chinese nationals. Graduate education in an apprentice program in which the student learns by doing research under the guidance of a faculty member. Students write proposals for funding, design experiments, present their results at conferences, and publish refereed papers.

    Some portion of the US’ attributed publications ought to be credited to China, perhaps as much as one-third.

  51. Daniel Chieh says

    Its good for you to keep believing that.

  52. AnonFromTN says

    These stats are typical example of counting your chickens before they hatch. I’d say quality papers are those used and cited at least 20 years after publication. The whole point of Nature index is immediacy, so it reflects the quality of science about as much as your gas stove reflects the Sun.

  53. AnonFromTN says

    It’s more complicated than that. In terms of attribution to individuals, you are close to the truth. If you look at the author lists of groundbreaking papers from the US or Europe, a good chunk of the names are Chinese, Russians, with some Indians thrown in. However, there is a reason why these breakthroughs were not made in China, Russia, or India. The organization of research is better. I know this from personal experience: after moving from Russia to the US my productivity increased by at least an order of magnitude. However, today the US and Europe are losing their edge, as more and more resources are fed into insatiable maw of MIC, with less and less allocated to research (or anything else useful, for that matter). I see it first-hand as an editor of several scientific journals: 20 years ago when you looked for possible qualified reviewers, 19 out of 20 were based in the US and EU. Today this fraction is down to 50%, and the downward trend is steady.

  54. AnonFromTN says

    It’s typical ostrich policy: when threatened, bury your head in the sand. That way they feel good to the bitter end. Does not prevent that bitter end, though.

  55. They don’t need to. They can outsource the parts they are not good at just like they have done with building skyscrapers.

    The designers are mainly not Chinese.

    If you look at who understands America overseas who would be game for this Russia and Iran immediately come to mind.

    Much of the Middle East and Latin America hates America. Plus it is easy to pry away a few Jews who could help.

    This is not as hard as you think and keep in mind that America needed help in reverse. America doesn’t really understand China, so they recruited a bunch of Chinese for the most effective propoganda.

  56. Still believing this meme? We’ll see how long you hold onto this over the next 10 years.

  57. India is increasing their population, but their smart fraction is going to decrease as a percentage as more 81 IQ Indians outbreed other smart ones.

  58. Blinky Bill says
  59. But what about “Nature Futures?” I think the West still leads in that category!

    Although Chinese author Cixin Liu is certainly hot, he beat me last summer for the Japanese Seiun award for best translated short fiction. So maybe the Chinese are starting to rise even in this category…

  60. Yeah, but with so many people, your smart fraction still ends up huge

    And with the good ol’ Indian casteism, you’re gonna see a “farewell to alms” on a scale that has never, ever been witnessed in history

    Not even deliberately

  61. Europe Europa says

    I find it strange how the average IQ in the US is still commonly reported as 100, considering the US is probably not even 50% “non-Hispanic white” any more.

    Considering how non-white the US is, this must mean that either white Americans have a significantly higher average IQ than whites in 100 IQ European nations (which I find difficult to believe) to bump up the average, or Hispanics and African-Americans are not as dumb as many claim they are.

    Or the other possibility is the reported averages are mostly nonsense compiled deliberately to prop up the notion that the multi-ethnic “melting pot” is a success that has not lowered IQ levels?

  62. White people actually came up with the compass independently, and they corned gunpowder in order to turn it into something that was really effective. And as for paper money, without it you likely would not have hyperinflation, and anyway fractional reserve banking and double entry bookeeping which was invented in Europe is a lot more innovative. And the Indians and Greeks had a lot more advanced mathematics than the East Asians, and Indian math could basically be regarded as an offshoot of European math anyway.

  63. And the advantage of the earliest gunpowder weapons over the English longbow and crossbow was questionable anyway, although it was easier to train arquebusiers and musketeers than longbowmen.

  64. But then, non-Jewish Europeans seem to be unable to do anything well at all since about 1970 or so.

  65. You do comprehend that the Chinese basically copied their HSR designs from the Germans right? Have you seen how the CRH380 and the ICE3 look like? And existing Chinese civilian jet aircraft are still really lousy as well, plus they are still using American or European jet engines. And Tsingtao beer is basically a knockoff of German beers. The reason why whites fell behind since the 50s was because of ___________’s cultural influence on US pop culture, see rap music, 83595058034803743957953359939375959357369739 genders, and twerking.

  66. Ms Karlin-Gerard says

    BTW have you seen their football team? A load of blacks, Arabs, slavs….. and I can tell you Kosovo have no need for their own football team with the Swiss around

  67. Europe Europa says

    I think the reason the government discourage mask wearing in the UK and try to downplay its effectiveness is because it interferes with the facial recognition tech the British police have been experimenting with and rolling out over the last few years.

    Presumably most other European countries are not as far forward with that agenda and therefore are more inclined to encourage mask wearing.

  68. Pericles says

    It’s the reason why Brazil is aggressively courting researchers from Europe instead of creating jobs for its poverty-stricken masses.

    They are wise. Would Brazil succeed where everyone else has failed, in making the negro productive?

  69. You meant to say, “failed to give the negro opportunities.”

    But yeah, eventually it’s going to bite them in the butt even if it appears to be a wise decision now. Much like 19th century America, the development strategy of Brazil and Latin America has historically been to bring in immigrants from Europe. Obviously it can’t last forever given how Europe’s population is steadily declining. They can bring in immigrants from Asia but that, too, fails as a long term strategy as Asia’s population growth is projected to level off sometime in the near future. Eventually the entire New World is going to have to reckon with its racism against blacks and natives, even if all it means is accepting intractable poverty on a large scale because nobody wants to give opportunities to inferiors. Such a society is livable, though hardly ideal if the aspiration is to become and remain a superpower, as it seems to be the case with Brazil.

  70. I see I got the attention of the China apologist trolls. Well the Chinese can connect dots and paint by numbers as good and better as anyone. But they have a hard time painting outside the lines. You know who taught me that? The Chinese software engineers with PhDs from Tsinghua University who worked for my company. They were always in awe of the Americans because Americans look and feel like they have no limits. China has reached peak level, and is steadily on the down slope. It reminds me of the Japanese in the 80’s. Look at the Japanese now. China is just a big Wal-Mart. If they get cut off from the Western markets, they starve. And their economic macrodata is always a joke in econ world. Nobody believes them. Just like they had 4,000 virus deaths? They shut down the entire nation over 4,000 virus deaths? What a bunch of liars. Shame on the CCP. So don’t put too many eggs in the Chinese basket because you could be very disappointed.

  71. Blinky Bill says
  72. Daniel Chieh says

    Japan is doing quite well now.

  73. Blinky Bill says

    Back in 1999, I got into a discussion of Japanese creativity. For 20 years, I’d been hearing, often from the Japanese themselves, that they weren’t creative. On the other hand, I owned a lot of cool gadgets that had at least been improved upon by the Japanese. On the other other hand, it was pointed out to me that the Japanese sure didn’t win many hard science Nobel Prizes: only five Japanese winners up through 1999.

    Beginning in 2000, however, there have been 19 Japanese hard science Nobel Laureates.

    Steve Sailer, Japanese apologist troll.

  74. Pericles says

    Lol, no I meant what I wrote.

    You clearly need to consult what’s happened so far when negroes are given opportunities. Not to say there aren’t a few clever ones, but they can be handled without any heroic efforts by whitey to give away the store so the blacks get one more opportunity.

    Your premise is left-racialist, there is your problem. Just because the POCs are jealous of higher-performing peoples doesn’t mean they will do equally well.