The figures for Russia are from Levada, those for Ukraine are from KMIS.
The basic story is that there was a (mutual) collapse in Ukraine-Russia views of the other country around 2014, which has remained steady since.
New Poll on Russia-Ukraine Relations
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was written by Anatoly Karlin for Russian Reaction on June 27, 2017 .104 Comments
Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.
Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.
Apart from writing books, reviews, travel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.
Polling ‘Ukrainians’ in aggregate is meaningless, too much regional variance. The territory of the former state of Ukraine is ripe for splitting into (roughly) Galicia and Malorossia with each part going its merry way.
You’ve been singing this listless song for way too long. Are you sure that you’re not substituting your own wishes for reality?
Gee, I wonder why? Similarly, what went wrong with Putin’s ‘NovoRosiya’ plan in Southern and Eastern Ukraine? Wasn’t the basic plan to be like in Crimea, where throngs of ‘Little Russians’ were to greet their ‘liberators’ and secede from the ‘Nazi Junta’ in Kyiv? Outside of the bordering areas of Donbas with Russia, where Russian intelligence and yahoo involvement was most pronounced, the ‘NovoRosiya’ experiment fizzled out faster than fireworks on the Fourth of July!
That is exactly what would have happened had Russia intervened instead of shrinking away.
Nobody respects the weak and cowards.
Frankly the inhabitants of Novorossiya have more genuine reasons to dislike the Russian Federation than Galicia.
Which goes to show that without outside Russian interference, the ‘NovoRosiya’ idea has no wings of its own with which to fly. It’s a bad idea that isn’t popular within Ukraine: Southern or Eastern, as became evident after it so miserably failed.
I agree wholeheartedly. At least Galicia was spared the ravishes of a Russian inspired war that has only brought misery to the far eastern area of Donbas. In Galicia at least, there’s no need to pronounce a ‘ceasefire’ (that isn’t holding) to the killing in order to provide time to plant needed food crops.
Pro-Russian protests had far more people in spring 2014 in Lugansk and Donetsk than Euromaidan ones.
Novorossiya certainly had wings there.
Kharkov and Odessa were about equal, so could have tipped either way.
Ekaterinoslav (Ukraine has decided Dnepropetrovsk is no longer its legitimate name; I will respect their wishes) did have significantly more Euromaidan protesters, but not by a huge margin.
Larger than the Euromaidan? I watched video clips that showed a few thousand at most, but not the hundred plus thousands that marched in Kyiv. Don’t forget, 100 protesters in Kyiv paid with their lives for their ideals.
Wikipedia seems to support my own observations:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine
Nothing like this went on in Eastern or Southern Ukraine:
https://youtu.be/OGpidW9finw
No, I mean within the actual cities.
Obviously there were far more Euromaidaners than Antimaidaners in Kiev itself, or Ternopil, or Lvov, etc., but it was the inverse in Lugansk/Donetsk, and 50-50 in Odessa and Kharkov.
I see what you mean. I think that the further east one goes in Ukraine, due to some extent to a more receptive pro-Russian crowd, and also being closer to the Russian border, individuals that hold a more pro-Kyiv stance may hesitate to voice their opinions, to omit any negative consequences. I remember reading somewhere that in Kharkiv the pro-Russia and pro-Ukraine elements were pretty evenly distributed at around 30%. 40% were neutral. I think that most citizens in this area are (or were) really neutral and just would like to be left alone and get along without any war. The day to day life of most of these individuals is a hard enough war without any bullets and bombs being added to the mix. I strongly feel that without the Kremlin’s input, there’d be no war there today. Weakly formulated, unsubstantiated regional language issues would not be enough to sustain such a war. And the language issues were what precipitated this stupid war in the first place, wasn’t it??……….
Kharkov: One word ” Kernes” and no problems since “Moya Hata Skrayu”–is a defining principle and, btw, Malyshev factory works just fine repairing VSU’s armor, no problem–not a single diversion or act of sabotage, nothing.
Odessa. Quoting you: “Nobody respects the weak and cowards.”(c). That is exactly what happened in Odessa.
I am not going to expand on operational issues of such an interference (those myths work well only for followers of Colonel Cassad’s and Strelkov’s “school of military thought”) but the “disengagement” between Russians and Ukrainians started long before 2014 and national passions, especially on Ukrainian side, were burning long before 2014. Strategically, well–I think current, 2017, events answered most of the questions by now.
Already by 2012, these ‘national passions’ were becoming evident within Odessa, when a majority of parents with school aged children chose to send their offspring to Ukrainian language schools, instead of to Russian ones (52% – 48%). This wouldn’t have happened 20 years earlier. Is there any doubt that this figure has increased during the last three years? These trends are normal for any country that disentangles itself from its former cultural hegemon. Face it, today within Ukraine, the concept of ‘NovoRosiya’ is a dead duck. Without Russian involvement, there aint even a duck to talk about. http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2012/08/9/6970495/
I don’t have to face anything since I knew from the get go what was the main objective. Donbass took up weapons–they will eventually reunify with Russia, the rest–are territories populated with people most of whom identify as Ukrainians (what is their percentage I don’t know precisely, nor do I care–it is majority). For now, the question is closed. Once Nord Stream-II (and others) is introduced, it will become increasingly irrelevant what Ukrainians think about Russia and Russians. The main question is what will be left of Ukraine in 10 years and who will be paying for it. I don’t think Russia (and Russians) are interested with the exception of some fringe (in every single respect) elements as Girkin and his ilk.
Indeed, and according to a Ukrainian poll, a plurality of Ukrainians have a positive view of Russia. This is remarkable considering the amount of anti-Russian propaganda they are being bombarded with. I recon the majority of these people live in the South and East.
This view will be growing (in numbers) even more with life in Ukraine becoming increasingly less comfortable. This, however, in no way identifies that “plurality” as people who want “back” to Russia. Far from it, many of them would love to stay Ukrainian while having all benefits of Russians in Russia. Again, enough to take a look at all those Ukrainian communists, socialists not to speak of what used to be “Regionaly”. It is some sort of collective “Levchenko”, who used to dominate hysterically Solovyov’s Vecher. Thankfully, this sleazebag and demagogue was removed and had instead this imbecile Kovtun installed as a permanent fixture. But that is what it is in essence–Putin pride, poryadok navede. Why should, at least now, Russia and Russians, who are being sanctioned left and right and are in a global struggle pay for that? Much, much more at play here than some “pro-Russian” (or otherwise) sentiments uncovered by some public opinion poll. I remember how all those Ukrainian military medics abruptly changed their Ukrainstvo on the train out of Crimea in 2014 when saw the pay-rates of qualified personnel in Russian military hospitals. Man, that was fast.
Ukraine is territory, that is both critical to Russia’s security and a part historical Russian heartland. The future of Ukraine is a much bigger issue than the stupid natural gas trade. And if this Senate sanctions bill get adopted, it will be the end of Nord Stream-II, and possibly other Gazprom’s projects in Europe.
Ukraine is still very weak and heterogeneous as a country, with plenty of pro-Russia sentiment in the South and East. I don’t believe it is in Russia’s interest to let it consolidate as a Western-oriented entity. We should battle for control or encourage futher splits (Kharkov would be an obvious next target).
I don’t think that in the long to medium run this process even possible, considering the dynamics in both Europe and US. In the end, as old Oriental proverb goes–no matter how many times one will repeat the word “baklava”–it will not get sweeter in the mouth. Even recent Kuchma’s interview speaks about it. Ukraine in her current state is not capable to provide any decent (forget good) living standard for her population–this is not a theorem anymore, this is an axiom. and things will continue to go down hill. West is not going to “pay” for anything in Ukraine, unless, of course is coerced in doing so–the process is ongoing as I type this. Being Western-oriented in rhetoric and putting EU flags behind during TV broadcasts is one thing, but being actually “integrated” into West is a completely different game–not happening. Let Germany try to clean up her own mess. What will be conditions of this “clean up”? One of them will be no stupid NATO moves into Eastern Ukraine. I think this condition is being discussed, as for Western Ukraine–let Poland and Hungary decide what to do there.
If. And even if it is adopted–I doubt that it is that easy to ween Europe off. Time is in play for Russia now.
So, the only way for Ukraine and Ukrainians to benefit from any long term relationship with Russia is to denegrate its own ethnicity, and subsume a Russian one? The trouble with you Russian nationalists (or imperialists, or whatever the hell you fancy yourselves today) is that you’ve never been able to learn anything from the much better and earlier empire builders, the Romans. To enjoy the pax-Romana, the Romans only required economic ties, perhaps military, but they never got involved in changing the local culture. Language, religion and customs of the locals were respected and left alone. Russian nationalists never seem to learn and are always drawn back to old methods and old ways that have proven themselves as untenable in the modern world – keep looking backwards, it suits your mentality!
Nah. Sitting and waiting while the place is going to hell in a handbasket is not a strategy. At a minimum RF should keep offering support, friendship, and a full restoration of economic cooperation and integration. Not to the junta, obviously, but directly to the people.
But yeah, as it stands now, it’s up to the population to do something about all this. And even though it looks rather gloomy these days, who knows, maybe there is some wisdom in this approach, after all.
If Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country – according to that intellectual titan McCain – than Ukraine is definitely a gas transit territory masquerading as a country.
Makes a lot more sense to pay for Chechnya and Ingushetia (80% of local budget reliant on federal transfers; Kadyrov: “It comes from Allah”).
The Roman Empire was before the age of mass literacy. It was not an option for it. Had the Romans somehow started an industrial revolution, you and I would undoubtedly be speaking Latin and considering ourselves Romans.
There have been many examples of successful assimulation in more literate societies (which Russia was starting to become in the late 19th century). England with respect to Cornwall. France in respect to… well, most regions outside Île-de-France, LOL. China with respect to the non-Mandarin speaking Chinese in the south (the lexical distance from which was far bigger than that between Russian and Ukrainian/Belorussian).
For now, yes. Again, it seems like an eclipse of mind here. I repeat: Chechnya is a subject of Russian Federation, Ukraine is independent state, member of the United Nations. So, now Russia has to pay for Ukraine? Last time I checked, Chechens fought FOR Russia, bar some unfinished terrorist elements, meanwhile the whole Ukrainian State today, supported by many Ukrainians, frames itself as being in “war with Russia”, and it works! Yeah, currently Chechens controlled by Kadyrov are by far smaller national security threat to Russia than openly hostile, provocative Ukrainian state and many (very many) its subjects who want to live like Russians but remain Ukrainians–after famous Russian proverb about fish and penis. I saw first hand what half-a-million people is on a square, Kharkov “demonstrations” were puny–in fact, ten times smaller. As Stanislavsky said. Those who wanted back to Russia took weapons and, btw, there was (and still is) a large number of Chechen volunteers fighting for LDNR.
All, where will pipeline routes and shipping lines go? Those are critical questions for central Asian development. Ukraine and Crimea are well-located to benefit from China, India and points east.
The ‘successful’ examples of assimilation that you’ve cited above all refer to colonial empires. I thought that Ukraine was not a Russian colony (you’ve told me so in the past), so why should it forsake its own language, based on a MaloRussian variant, for that of it’s northern neighbor (not colonial master)?:-)
So, how do you propose turning back the clock in Ukraine, and make it truly a beacon of Russian language and culture? Remember, there have been strong separatist trends going on within Ukraine for centuries now, and the latest turn of events (the Russian ripoff of Crimea, the Russian inspired war in Donbas) have only solidified Ukraine’s feeling of separateness from Russia. Face it Anatoly, if Russianess and all things related were so important to Ukrainians, wouldn’t they organically be pulled towards it, rather than having it foisted upon them, like the war in Donbas that they don’t need?
So was the Rus Empire, where the Riurik dynasty sent soldiers and clergy to assimilate the illiterate Finnish masses that populated the northern areas, today know as Russia, once known as Muskovia. How did such a large mass of Finnish tribes become Slavic speakers? This assimilation of Finnish tribes into a Slavic culture was a huge mistake made by the Slavic colonizers from Kyiv and the South, that they’re paying for to this very day. No, I think that the Romans had a better idea!
America’s subjects fare worse – they become liberals.
Once well-entrenched (and very characteristic, I may add) and barely hidden jealousy and envy of Russia complete their mental work in Ukraine–and it is ongoing as I type this–things will get back more or less to “normal”. Not before Ukrainians experience all “advantages” of living under present regime, though. But yes, it is a drawn-out process and it may take few years.
Are you serious? Please elaborate some more (fascinating stuff)…
I don’t know what you mean.
Elaborate on what? Geopolitics, economics, military-political issues, history?
Not before Ukrainians experience all “advantages” of living under present regime, though. But yes, it is a drawn-out process and it may take few years.
The Ukraine’s been a stand-alone republic for 25 years, during which time (from the descriptive statistics quoted) the sentiment in favor of merger with great Russia has been declining on both sides of the border. I’ll wager ‘a few years’ will be the proverbial Keynesian long run.
. England with respect to Cornwall. France in respect to… well, most regions outside Île-de-France, LOL.
Cornwall was incorporated into England in the 9th c. The Celtic population there might have numbered in the 5-digits.
Re France: there’s a distinction between local particularism and a national self-conception.
France emerged as a state within the portfolio of Carolingian territories in the 9th c. The dialects of the Langue d’Oeil form a distinct set. The Occitanian territories did once bear more a linguistic resemblance to Catalonia and the north of Italy than they did to the rest of France. Aside from Savoy, no Occitanian territory has been in the portfolio of any other monarch since the Renaissance (and when they were, the ruling monarchs were (1) Italian and (2) Anglo-Norman). The closest there’s been in the major part of France to the raw material for the formation of a nation in contradistinction to France would have been in the Angevin territories, a possibility ruled out during the Renaissance.
No, it was not, despite all attributes of independent state–economically it was de facto supported by Russia. Ukrainian Somalization will only accelerate. In fact, it accelerates as I type this.
I don’t disagree with that.
Maybe, but I am not into online casinos, I prefer to deal with tangibles, such as hi tech machine building complex which is shrinking in Ukraine with tremendous speed. Ukraine already now is a third world nation economically. Culturally, that is a whole other story. It will get even worse and by much.
Looks like things are already getting back to ‘normal’, at least in Lviv. ‘Jealousy’ of Russia? Happy Ukrainians celebrating Constitution Day, seems to be taking place everywhere throughout Ukraine, except in Donbas, where the benefits of the Ruskij Mir can be seen in the misery of the poor people who are left holding the bag there. Long live the DNR and LNR! What ever happened to the pension benefits that were to come from Moscow? A ‘drawn-out process’ indeed…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7t9aYs-STo
No, it was not, despite all attributes of independent state–economically it was de facto supported by Russia. Ukrainian Somalization will only accelerate. In fact, it accelerates as I type this.
If social fiction helps you get through the day, that’s harmless. Just don’t bug me with it.
I doubt you will be able to comprehend it, so don’t worry. This is out of your league anyway.
Yeah, sure. So, you want to enlighten us all here on the issue of Ukrainian hi-tech industries, or maybe Mr. Kuchma also invents things and they didn’t inform him on your observations?
https://112.ua/mnenie/ni-ssha-ni-evropa-ukraine-ne-pomogut-my-prakticheski-odni-397265.html
I am not going to engage with you in all this sappy sentimental BS, such as you introduced here from Lviv (you may ask Art Deco to share in your delusion) but you are certainly worthy of your handle since evidently have no idea what constitutes real power of nation. This is not to speak about a well known fact that average Russians live better (much better) than average Ukrainians. You want to prove to me that Ukraine is not a third world shit hole now? Be my guest. I would love to hear from you about the fate of Antonov, Nikolaev shipyard, auto-industry etc. I would also love to hear a rational explanation of how the nation with per capita PPP GDP of 8 000 USD compares with Russia whose per capita PPP GDP is 24 000 and is voting with feet getting to this Russia as guest workers, in millions. Just FYI–I know many Western Ukrainians, forget from the Eastern part, those are really numerous–so, I, how to put it politely, is slightly informed on what is going on. If you would know my background you wouldn’t be surprised.
Here’s a long interview of their leading liberal-patriot and enthusiastic maidanist, Yermolaev.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMVrkQ50dnE&t=6414s
Extremely well-spoken fella. I haven’t finished it yet, but so far his diagnosis appears to be something like ‘agrarian totalitarianism’. And that’s what? — a softer version of Cambodia under Khmer Rouge?
Oh, it can’t be as bad as you postulate, somehow these folks make due with what they have. Bear in mind that things have been tough for a very long time now, and it seems that the Ukrainians are a very tough and had working people that have learned through the course of history to make adjustments and learn how to survive. For some reason, they’re not enchanted with the prospects of handing over their newly found independence and get subsumed by their neighbors to the north. They have, after all had plenty of historical relations with these neighbors, and still don’t seem enthralled with the prospect of the illusory ‘carrot’ that this neighbor is dangling before them. Are they really as blind as those of your ilk would suggest, and have been bamboozled by Western idealogues? There must be more to it, this hesitancy to throw in their lot in with their ‘brothers’?.
I hope that you enjoy watching the video clip that I posted above – what a beautiful culture,eh?..
As was expected–nothing of substance. Just FYI, Poland eventually will return Lemberg (Lviv) and it is not that far away, as you might think. Maybe decade-two away.
Yes, they make do with GDP of a third world nation, including this GDP’s structure which prevents any improvement (forget regional, let alone global competitiveness) let alone development. Once, within year or two, Russia completely (it is already 80-85% complete) shuts off any contractual relations with what’s left of already practically dead Ukrainian machine-building complex, it will be over. What follows (you see, I am not even using the verb “will”) is a final deindustrialization and relegation to the status of large and fast depopulating Albania or Kosovo. But no worry, I am sure celebrations of such “culture” will be great and fun will be had by everybody who will attend. Judging by “celebration” in Kiev of “bezviz” it will be cute;)
This is exactly a return to Ukraine’s historic roots–to village. In 1991 this nation was left with the most advanced industry base in former USSR and second, after Russia, armed forces in Europe. Fast forward 26 years–most of it is gone, despite Russians, like morons, continuing prior to 2014 buying products of Ukraine’s machine-building complex. It finally dawned on Kremlin whom Russia was supporting at the expense of own industry. Luckily, correct conclusions were made–the result is in the open. Let them do what they always liked and are, actually, very good at it–Maidans. The country of a permanent Maidan.
Ukraine will resemble Somalia in the imagination of the two of you only. Presumably common-and-garden Russian patriots entertain more sensible speculations.
From 2005 to 2013, official transfers to Ukraine amounted to about 0.5% of gross national income, after which they increased to 1.6% of gross national income. During the period running from 1990 to 2004, official transfers from all sources bounced around a set point of $328 million, or $8.60 per capita. This notion that the Ukraine was a mendicant living off Uncle Russia has no reality.
The Ukraine has seen a rapid increase in its public debt load in the last three years. Prior to that it was a reasonable 40% of domestic product. Ukrainian bonds trade on international markets. The rapid escalation in the Ukraine’s external debt has happened since the financial crisis in 2008. It was reasonable prior to that (at about 40% of the Ukraine’s gross national income; it averaged half that over the period running from 1990 to 2000).
Well, personally I tend to kinda idealize and romanticize communal-rustic lifestyle. And I find their village dialect (‘Ukrainian language’) absolutely cute and adorable. So, if they slowly slide ‘back to nature’, growing sunflowers, dancing on the streets, drinking horilka, wearing national costumes, and periodically gathering on the village square to jump up and down, it’s fine with me. It’s nice, really.
This is exactly a return to Ukraine’s historic roots–to village. In 1991 this nation was left with the most advanced industry base in former USSR and second, after Russia, armed forces in Europe. Fast forward 26 years–most of it is gone, despite Russians, like morons, continuing prior to 2014 buying products of Ukraine’s machine-building complex.
Employment in agriculture currently accounts for 15% of the Ukraine’s workforce and has not, since 1990, accounted for more than 21% at any time. As we speak, agriculture accounts for 14% of the value added in the economy; it stood at 25% in 1990 and has been around 9% for most of the last 25 years. Industry accounts for 26% (v. 44% in 1990). Services account now for 60% (v. 30% in 1990).
Per Angus Maddison, production per capita in the Ukraine was 18% below the Soviet mean in 1973. It improved between then and 1990, rising to 12% below. At neither time was the Ukraine an advanced component of the Soviet Union. The Ukraine fell badly behind during the years running from 1990 to 2000, falling to 38% below the (diminished) mean of the post-Soviet republics, than improving some until 2008, then declining in its relative position after the financial crisis.
including this GDP’s structure which prevents any improvement
This is a nonsense statement.
Contrast the mirth and gaiety of the ‘cute and adorable’ Ukrainians with the more somber mood of Russians recently protesting against ‘corruption’ in various cities. I’m sure that the Ukrainians at least were assembling having obtained the necessary permission from the city fathers to do so.
The poor but sophisticated Russian urban dwellers conducted their protests at their own peril, not being able to even receive permission to do so:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXlay-3X_N0
I guess there are things that are even more important than GDP that motivate citizens to protest their governments corrupt habits.
Name me one, single Ukrainian high complexity finished product with demand on the international market. I already got it that your world-view is limited by FIRE monetarist BS, but still–may be you will find in yourself behind the wall of your monetarist baloney any attempt to understand what real economy is?
I would really like to hear your explanation on the fate of Antonov, Zorya Mashproekt, Nikolaev shipyards (used to built aircraft carriers, if you didn’t know), Ukrainian automotive industry. I would also like to hear from you explanations of why Russia for decades was supporting those dying industries such as buying Progress jet-engines or continuing with obsolescent An-148. I am also interested with your outlook on the fate of Yuzhmash, among many other things. As per your used car dealership accountant “level” understanding of economy–reserve this BS to the letter section of WSJ.
Sure, sure and I thought that being dirt poor, producing nearly nothing of high added value, forget about being competitive on global markets are the signs of a world-class economy. What do you know, I guess my Russian “patriotism” doesn’t allow me to to look at facts on the ground. As per “patriotism”–Russia has a world class economy which produces as CIA fact book states:
complete range of mining and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; defense industries (including radar, missile production, advanced electronic components), shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction equipment; electric power generating and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html
Even if CIA can figure this out, I guess comparisons between Ukraine and Russia are not only highly warranted but irresistible. Hey, at least Russians do not claim to be the people who influenced ancient Greeks.
http://theduran.com/amazing-historical-discovery-ancient-greeks-spoke-ukrainian/
Official transfers only account for a small amount of the money received by Ukrainian gastarbeiters, most of it is just cash stuffed into pockets and driven, flown or ridden across the boarder. Russia has subsidized sales of gas to Ukraine to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Prior to 2014, Russia accounted for 50% of Ukraine’s exports. Europe has not fulfilled its promise to compensate for the loss of the Russian export market. I could go on, but won’t.
The country may have kept debt at reasonable levels, but doing so did nothing, or little, to boost growth. As it is now, the only thing staving off a default is foreign largesse. In reality, though, Ukraine should have defaulted and shown the IMF the door. You can’t default on IMF debt. Ukraine is not an independent country, at least financially, and is unable to sustain itself.
Really? I don’t see any indication of the reality of this observation, either among state structures or even among the political platforms of any viable Polish political parties. Are you sure that you’re not propagating a meme that really has no basis in fact?
What I see, is an ever increasing tightening of relations between Poland, Lithania and Ukraine, especially in the military sphere. Certainly you’re aware of the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian Brigade that has been funtioning since 2014?
It’s a country with 44 million people in it and a workforce of about 20 million. I don’t know what you think you’re accomplishing by making reference to the problems of a handful of industrial concerns. No matter how verbose you are, that does not answer any of my points, nor can it.
Official transfers only account for a small amount of the money received by Ukrainian gastarbeiters, most of it is just cash stuffed into pockets and driven, flown or ridden across the boarder.
During the period running from 2011-13, service exports from the Ukraine amounted to about $22 bn a year. About 83% of this revenue derived from travel, transportation, services in information and communications technology, and insurance and financial services. Remittances from all sources did not account for more than $3-4 bn a year. That amounts to 1-2$ of the Ukraine’s income stream.
As of 2013, the Ukraine’s merchandise exports to Russia accounted for 24% of all merchandise exports. Exports of goods and services to Russia amounted to 8% of GDP.
https://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/download/TN/TN_03_2014_en.pdf
The country has economic problems and has had them for a generation. The notion that the proper response to those problems is to merge the Ukraine with Russia is just non sequitur (unless you fancy Ukrainians are inferior beings and can never manage their own affairs, which butt-hurt Russian nationalists do seem to assert from time to time). There are 44 million people in the Ukraine. That’s more than adequate scale if correct policies are followed (and you’re not being harassed by the country next door); New Zealand does well with a domestic market 1/10th that size.
Even if CIA can figure this out,
The CIA hired Aldrich Ames and Michael Scheuer. See Reuel Marc Gerecht on how promotions are awarded at the Company.
There are agencies skilled in national income accounting. The CIA is not among them.
It’s an odd logic, to say that a large number of people living in a territory in question makes problems solvable. What if, as it appears to be the case indeed, 22 million of them are terrorizing the other 22 million? And harassing the country next door…
Come on.
How exactly is that going to happen? Modern Galicia is 99% Ukrainian and the strongest believers in their Ukrainianess. How exactly is Poland supposed to incorporate a region where they have festivals in honor of Bandera and Shukhevich who killed 10,000s of Poles.
There was some talk about Zakarpattian separatism amongst the more unhinged pro-Novorossiya elements in 2014-15, but even that was always extremely unlikely, because the Ukraine has successfully Ukrainized the Rusyns.
Gentlemen, I read almost all discussion. It was extremely interesting, but IMO Mr. Putin is not interested in annexation of a single square inch of Ukrainian land. E.g. Donbas people took arms and bleed by Russia but he let them just bleed. True, there were some human and weapons flowe toward the Donbas, but he could easily have accepted it and refused. I think he considers Ukraine in the current shape as a big liability and an enormous and unsolvable problem. Putin opinion should be something like “Better let Ukraine be a chaotic buffer toward NATO rather than a tumour inside Russia.”
Observe economic dynamics, as it is getting worse (it will get much worse), social dynamics will follow.
And? What, history doesn’t have examples of occupation of the most homogeneous and most nationally self-conscious nations? Will see where, as an example, Hungarians will want to go once shit hits the fan. Of course, most of them have Hungarian passports by now anyway. As per Volhynia atrocity–well known fact, but again observe the economic dynamics in the area which, accidentally, pro0duces next to nothing bar some agriculture and other basic utilities.
Economics. There are a few genuine nutcases for sure, but they don’t stand a chance. And the rest will switch the tune without missing a beat.
LOL. I understand that you are a svidomy patriot and probably a not very mature man (age wise), and that is the problem–it is essentially impossible to explain to a new generation (supposedly digital) what modern real industry is and what it takes to produce even such basic things as refrigerators or even a basic, no bells and whistles whatsoever, car. Once one gets into the field of shipbuilding, complex weapon systems, aerospace, machine building complex capable to manufacture modern CNC and production lines etc. game changes completely. You can assemble some shitty iPhone (given the crystal) in some rats-ridden facility in China, you can not create aircraft part there. None of this, I underscore–none does exist in Ukraine anymore. What was left to her by USSR is being initially slowly and now really fast cannibalized and sold out. Ukraine doesn’t have money on such “funny” things as fundamental, let alone applied, science, she doesn’t know what real cutting age R&D is, what is a world-class professional (not some BS, and I don’t mean Bachelor’s, useless degrees in economics or some other crap) STEM education. All of it is already gone.
Just to give you one example, once famed Antonov, when released AN-178 for trials forgot to tell their potential customers that they forgot how to calculate a fulcrum (centroplan) of an aircraft and the thing (the only built so far) had to fly initially with 1+ ton of metal sheets in cargo bay to center it properly. There are no correct “policies”, they can not be there by definition. Moreover, there are no people in power there who are competent enough to come up with at least some real plan for arresting of what is already promising to be a much-much worse situation. Those who were, are already in Russia.
This, plus Hungarians for sure (Poles are only getting around by now, I heard) have some troops pre-deployed in border areas, after all, Hungarians in Western Ukraine need protection;)
It’s an odd logic, to say that a large number of people living in a territory in question makes problems solvable.
You’re proposing subjugating one country to another in a larger unit. The burden of your argument is that the economic performance of the country you wish to conquer and subjugate is poor. Places large and small have poor economic performance. Amalgamating them with a larger unit contra their preferences does not address the source of the problem. And you know that’s not the source because prosperous countries can be found in every size category.
What if, as it appears to be the case indeed, 22 million of them are terrorizing the other 22 million? A
It does not appear that way and is not that way, but butt-hurt Russians have their fictions.
You seem to be of the opinion that witless condescension directed at people you’ve never met (including persons of an age to be the moderator’s father) and 600 words of irrelevant chatter about industrial form an argument. You made statements about general economic relationships and phenomena that are not true. No amount of verbal distraction on your part will make them true.
So, industry doesn’t matter. OK, good to know.
A walk down memory lane:
This can only be a problem for somebody whose brain isn’t wired correctly; where the left side is at war with the right side. Half of the country of Ukraine isn’t at war with the other half. 99.99% are at war with Russian intelligence and military advisers and hired Chechen and Russian yahoos in half of the Donbas. What you’re trying to propagate is a listless meme that actually has no basis in fact!
Look, I don’t wish to conquer anything, and you getting personal here (and especially in the next para) indicates the absence of argument on your side: your ad hominem wouldn’t constitute an argument even if I did have the “wish to conquer” and/or “butt-hurt”. My motives for defending one side or the other are irrelevant.
I’m not really for unification, because my instinct is, almost always, for localism and decentralization. Nevertheless, I disagree.
I’ll explain. We’ve seen this in many former Soviet republics: local elites trying to entrench their power by agitating the ethnic majority of their population — by demonizing and cracking down on ethnic minorities. Georgia is an obvious case in point. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan (anti-Uzbek riots in Osh), etc, etc, etc. And after almost 30 years, it’s still going on, almost everywhere.
But none of that existed before the collapse of the USSR. Kyrgyz had no problem with Uzbek, Azeri with Armenian, Abkhaz with Mingrelian, and most definitely there was no signs of any hostility between Ukrainians and Russians. They all knew that they live in a multi-ethnic society, and they all (okay, let’s say 99% of them) accepted it. This particular aspect of the USSR was fine and healthy. Yeah. So, this would be my argument for unification.
I dunno, I doubt Hungary has any troops to speak of. What I do know, is that they are actively offering passports, and direct monetary support. Support to poor Ukro-Hungarians, pensions, legal help, free (or almost free) train tickets to travel back and forth, and so on. Very smart.
[Langue d’Oeil]
It’s not spelt like that, you pretentious idiot.
For me, at least, the cuteness by now has palled. Sleazy opportunists, more dangerous as friends than as enemies. Their nemesis is approaching on winged feet.
I dunno, I drove around Ukro-Karpatia last year and it still was exactly the tolkienian hobbitland I remembered. Geopolitical excitements come and go, but people (mostly) don’t pay serious attention (‘ne zvertajut uvahi’); they tend to stay the same. Mostly.
Both were correct. There is no obviously right way to compare a centrally planned economy vs. a free market one.
And, most importantly, they vote for Orban.
But the general idea of dividing Ukraine with Hungary (Poland, etc) is a pipedream. I wonder if they people proposing it have ever looked at ethnic/language maps of West Ukraine. It’s pretty homogenous. The Hungarians are the majority ethnicity on a narrow slice of Zakarpattia’s border with Hungary – Orban is going to risk sanctions, expulsion from the EU/NATO, etc., for that?
Cash earned by gastarbeiters in Russia and brought back to Ukraine is part of the shadow economy. That is not accounted for in either your comment, or the report you posted, which I wasted my time reading, even approximately. If you doubt the importance of Russian earned income in the Ukrainian economy, then you need to explain why Ukraine has not yet instituted a visa regime with Russia, despite the constant threat to do so.
Um, okay, but perhaps you are now having a conversation with someone else? Nowhere did I even hint at, let alone suggest, that merging Ukraine with Russia is a proper response to its economic problems. At this point, I think you’d be hard pressed to find many Russians who want to live in the same country as Galicians. Nor was there any way you could infer from my comment that I consider Ukrainians as inferior beings. I do believe this is revealing of your own feelings about Ukrainians, however. As for Ukrainians not being able to manage their own affairs, well, that is a demonstrable fact. Perhaps it is time to entertain some more radical solutions that don’t include violence, but that is something Ukrainians need to figure out for themselves.
No, definitely not by force. Like you said, for now his goal is to give passports and to get fidesz votes.
But if it gets to the point of total collapse, Kiev is overrun with zombies, no more cigarettes and horilka to smuggle, and Karpatian hobbits begin starving, then who knows; Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia just might step in and annex bits and pieces. For humanitarian reasons, for the sake of human rights and gay parades, y’know…
Why, is this your way of telling the world that you’re planning a return trip to ‘Ukro-Karpatia’?…
The granular problems of particular industries are of scant consequence in context. Industries come and go, companies come and go, technologies come and go. The point is to structure your property-rights regime, your regulatory regime, and your tax regime in a way that investors and proprietors benefit from productive efficiency borne of innovation and miscellaneous process improvements and not from accounting games, political connections, or criminal propensities. If for technical reasons blocs of your industrial plant are unimprovable, your business class will redirect their investments if not impeded from so doing.
You and your confederate made four sets of assertions here: that the Ukraine’s sectors were comparatively advanced in 1989 vis a vis the rest of the Soviet Union (not so; the Ukraine compared favorably to Azerbaidzhan and the Central Asian republics, not the rest of the country), that the Ukraine has been propped up by Russia (not so; cross border transfers from public and private sources Russian and non-Russian have generally amounted to < 3% of the country's income stream); that the Ukraine would specialize in agriculture going forward (not so; it's the service sector which has been the most dynamic); and that the Ukraine would resemble Somalia (which is flagrantly silly). All of these assertions are false no matter how much you babble about shipbuilding.
Look, I don’t wish to conquer anything, and you getting personal here (and especially in the next para) indicates the absence of argument on your side: your ad hominem wouldn’t constitute an argument even if I did have the “wish to conquer”
The term ‘ad hominem’ does not mean what you fancy it means.
If you have some other thesis you’d like to substitute for the one you and the other Russian nationalist have been pushing, be my guest.
Oh, Mr. Anon uses sockpuppets. Isn’t that cute?
But none of that existed before the collapse of the USSR. Kyrgyz had no problem with Uzbek, Azeri with Armenian, Abkhaz with Mingrelian, and most definitely
You’re telling me the whole edifice fell apart in four months in 1991 though everything was just Georgia peachy keen? That the Red Army launched a sanguinary reconquista of Central Asia in 1918 because everyone was pleased with the Tsarist salad bowl? That the political elites in 14 rather disparate societies Jedi-mind tricked their populations into abandoning the Soviet multicultural experiment?
What happened to the Hapsburg dominions in 1918? Well, pretty much the same thing that happened to the Soviet Union in 1991. Pretty much what did not happen in Italy in 1945. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.
Um, okay, but perhaps you are now having a conversation with someone else?
No, I’m having a conversation with you. Two of the three of you are having trouble keeping track from one post to another of the import of your complaints. This isn’t that difficult.
Although about a year old, I found this interesting article in an ‘investment/economics site that seems to buttress a lot about what you write:
And to help assuage Andrei Martyanov’s incessant whinning about the collaps of the Ukrainain aerospace industry, this same article spells out that Canadian firms are quite interested in working together with Ukrainians ones that work in this field:
https://fronteranews.com/news/emerging-europe/no-longer-secret-ukraine-europes-new-frontier-market/
It means exactly what I said: attacking the alleged motives and character, instead of the argument itself.
And you keep doing it. When I have ‘some other thesis’, I promise, you’ll be the first to know, but so far you haven’t addressed the one I have now. Instead, you prefer to convey your impression of my humble persona, assigning labels and motives to it. Not cool.
Why, not in four months, of course. As the USSR was falling apart, local elites started building support and forming their base; trying to capitalize, most often, on ethnic resentment. And they still do it. Is this even controversial? What does it have to do with 1918?
It means exactly what I said: attacking the alleged motives and character, instead of the argument itself.
The term ‘attack’ doesn’t mean what you fancy it means, either. I referred to your objects. Which appears to upset you.
Why, not in four months, of course. As the USSR was falling apart, local elites started building support and forming their base;
Yes, four months, August to December, 1991. You could add an additional 18 months if you encompass the events in Lithuania forward. You seem to think they can ‘built their base’ by conjuring it out of the air. Either they had the raw material or they did not. They had it in the Hapsburg dominions and they had it in Yugoslavia. In Italy and Germany, they haven’t had it, in spite of centuries in which different components were sovereign, in spite of linguistic distinctions, and in spite of animated inter-regional rivalries. In Spain and in Britain, there is some tinder, but not nearly enough to have the whole country fall to pieces in less than two years.
The moderator thinks the central government should have been more unyielding and then you’d have fewer problems now because everyone would have learned Russian and forgotten themselves. Now look west. The most disagreeable rivalries bar none have been in Yugoslavia, where three quarters of the population spoke the same (synthetic) language. Next on the list is Ireland, where the Gaelic language is a school subject almost no one speaks at home. Your most successful secessionist movements are in Scotland (wherein the local Gaelic is all but dead) and Catalonia, where the whole population is either bilingual or speaks only Castillan.
Huh? What ‘objects’? You said that I ‘wish to conquer’ a country, and you called me a ‘butt-hurt Russian’. You bet, I fancy that the term ‘attack’ fits the bill.
And I have no idea what “I referred to your objects” means.
There’s always a way to divide and sic one segment of the population on another.
And what’s with all that weird stuff about “linguistic distinctions”? Do you feel that people who speak different dialects at home must necessarily hate each other?
Do you feel that people who speak different dialects at home must necessarily hate each other?
No, but they commonly understand themselves as distinct from each other.
You like art deco, and I very much prefer art nouveau. We are all distinct from each other.
See also Jonathan Swift, the Little-Endians and the Big-Endians.
Nice rebuttal…
Lviv is economically stable, not desperate. Indeed, the economy there is improving, with the development of new plants and ongoing growth if IT industry, etc. Lviv is a bustling city full of crowded cafes and, outside the expanded pedestrian zone downtown, streets crowded mostly normal Western cars. I just got back from having spent time in that city – it is doing well. Western Ukraine, certainly, is not getting worse. So the idea of its people wanting to be annexed by Poland due to economic desperation is utterly bizarre.
Ah, so you are suggesting a hostile invasion of western Ukraine by Poland. I won’t comment on that, out of politeness.
Volhynia itself is poor (much poorer than Galicia) and has always been poor. It is not getting poorer, though. Again – no desperation on part of locals to be annexed by Poland. And of course, will Poland want to invade a poor, hostile territory with no Poles in it?
I may have said something but remembering that all Ukrainian discussions are choked up by “Mr. Hack” and his American friend, I think it is simply futile to even start any discussion. I simply admire the level of your tolerance, he’s (they’re) just utterly annoying.
I knew that you are dumb and ignorant, but not that utterly ignorant. Look at the language map of Europe and find the so called Romance languages and learn how they have appeared in the first place.
Sovok needs a safe space?
Hmm… According to lurkmore, the publication I tend to trust, from the ‘Lvov in real life’ section:
http://lurkmore.to/%D0%9B%D1%8C%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B2
Never heard of lurkmore, but thanks for demonstrating that it has no credibility. I was just in Lviv. Lots of construction, streets packed with very busy cafes, outside the expanded downtown pedestrian-zone the streets are full of cars, 90+% of which are decent Western ones. Now, maybe the average age of a VW or Skoda or Ford in Lviv is 2 years older than ones in Krakow, and the prices are a lot lower, but there is little visible difference between the two cities in terms of observable prosperity. Stores like Emporio Armani have appeared.
Here’s a chart of new housing in Ukraine 2015-2016:
http://pollotenchegg.livejournal.com/245450.html
Lviv (population 800,000) about doubles Kharkiv (population 1.5 million).
Here’s a tourist’s video from a few days ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrjgow1iuSs
So much poverty and despair…
Every ~1mil city in Europe has the tourist area in the center with cafes, and the cathedral, and decent (government officials’?) cars parked around it. In fact, much smaller cities have all that, regardless of their economic situation. Damascus has all that.
Your own lifejournal link, I downloaded the xls from it, and the construction in 2016 was only 83% of that in 2015. The population size, according to ukro-wikipedia, has been going down steadily since 1989; but that’s not surprising, I suppose. And the promotional video – wtf?
Sorry, the thousands of cars I saw driving all over the place were not government cars, they were owned by regular people. I was not talking about the downtown core “tourist area” but the entire central city, out to the airport, and surrounding residential areas where my relatives lived. Granted, there may be cheap housing blocks way on the outskirts that are worse, but one has to go out of one’s way to find them.
2015 was the peak year. The 2016 figure is higher than for 2010-2013.
Not really:
https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9D%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F_%D0%9B%D1%8C%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0
It dropped between 2000 and 2005, then gradually increased.
The city experienced positive migration in 2014 (no later stats).
It was not a promotional video, it was a video by a non-Ukrainian tourist, who also has done videos of Riga and other cities. Just layers of cluelessness from you. Find some other video of modern Lviv (that was the most recent one) to see the “poverty” and “despair.” Here’s one made by some Azeri guy, for example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMuAtQKn8tk
A dashcam video driving around the city in March 2017:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gb0aZ6nlfN8
One has to be really ignorant to take the lurkmore article seriously. But that must be lurkmore’s target audience. You are like someone claiming that Moscow is a third world city.
Population of the oblast has been falling steadily:
https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%8C%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B2%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C#.D0.A7.D0.B8.D1.81.D0.B5.D0.BB.D1.8C.D0.BD.D1.96.D1.81.D1.82.D1.8C_.D0.BD.D0.B0.D1.81.D0.B5.D0.BB.D0.B5.D0.BD.D0.BD.D1.8F
Also, I see that their wikipedia lies, in their typically silly way:
1548.1 + 1002.1 = 2550.2, not 2725.2. But even the 2550.2 number doesn’t fit the table just below it.
We were discussing the city, not the oblast. Parts of Moscow oblast are rather poor also. At any rate, a decline of under 7,000 people in four years (2011-2015) in an oblast with over 2.5 million people is trivial.
Hey, Smart and enlightened, what about the British Islands, Gaul, Greece, Judea, Carthage?….
Who’s the dumb ass now? 🙂
Why do you speak with yourself, tovarish?
You have no idea that Carthage/North Africa was Romanized as well as Britain, and especially Gaul. You even do not know that Gaul is France, do you? You even more stupid than I thought. Do not even try to make more excuses for your idiocy, as you make it look only worse.
You are a Sovok, born in Sovok to generations of Sovoks, and you wish to censor other opinions (i.e, need a safe space).
Understand now, Sharikov?
Alright, seems I have to speak with your language for you to understand.
First, when an imbecile Khokhol-Murricunt born to generations of imbecile iodine deficient Nazi Banderite Khokhol-Murricunts tries to use Russian internet memes the meanings of which he does not understand and thus has to learn from Wikipedia, it appears too stupid and pathetic even for your imbecile Khokhol lot. Calling someone “Sovok” is not going to earn you points in the Internet Special Olympics of which you are already a gold medallist.
Second, not wanting to read the nonsense of your imbecile Khokhol lot is a matter of mere basic mental hygiene. It is like the natural repulsion to shit.
Capeesh, Khokhol?