The 2017-2020 wave results of the World Values Survey are out (h/t Thulean Friend). You can access them and look at the data here. They do waves of surveys encompassing a few dozen countries every five years, making the WVS a highly useful resource for comparative sociology*.
One such question is repeatedly ask is if you “believe in God” (Q165 in this wave).
Developed countries
| 1981-1984 | 1989-1993 | 1994-1998 | 1999-2004 | 2005-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2017-2020 | |
| Austria | 13% | 13% | 18% | 24% | |||
| France | 62% | 57% | 56% | 50% | 50% | ||
| Finland | 61% | 73% | 74% | 56% | 54% | ||
| Germany | 72% | 57% | 49% | 62% | 58% | 63% | 56% |
| Greece | 84% | 90% | 92% | ||||
| Italy | 84% | 83% | 88% | 84% | 76% | ||
| Korea, South | 42% | 50% | 41% | ||||
| Norway | 70% | 58% | 65% | 54% | 46% | ||
| Spain | 87% | 80% | 87% | 80% | 72% | 71% | 64% |
| Sweden | 51% | 38% | 48% | 47% | 35% | 41% | 34% |
| Turkey | 83% | 98% | 99% | 98% | 94% | ||
| United Kingdom | 75% | 71% | 61% | 58% | 48% | ||
| United States | 96% | 93% | 94% | 94% | 88% | 76% |
This confirms what we know to be a rather fast collapse in US religiosity, which is now at where the UK was during the Thatcher era – and something I myself observed during my stay there during 2006/8-2016.
Another recent Tweet that makes the same point:
Here's another piece of evidence that contradicts the narrative that disaffiliation slows or reverses as people move into adulthood/marry/have kids/etc.
25% of Gen X were nones in 2008. It was 36% in 2019.
33% of millennials were nones in 2008. It was 43% in 2019. pic.twitter.com/hDsz58wMcx
— Ryan Burge 📊 (@ryanburge) October 9, 2020
This is noteworthy to the extent that religiosity can sometimes be (though far from always – see Czechia) a significant determinant of fertility. Raising children is very expensive in the US, even just childbirth can cost $50,000. With no religious reasons to keep doing it TFR may eventually plummet from current record lows (1.67 projected for 2020 by Cicerone) by US historical standards to peripheral European figures below 1.5. Though this is just speculation, of course.
This seems to be occurring near everywhere in the West… with the market exception of Turkey (at least until of late). The neo-Ottomanist civilizational vigor is probably no accident.
Post-Communist countries
| 1981-1984 | 1989-1993 | 1994-1998 | 1999-2004 | 2005-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2017-2020 | |
| Belarus | 36% | 68% | 72% | 78% | 85% | 74% | |
| Czechia | 31% | 39% | 33% | 29% | 31% | ||
| Estonia | 46% | 41% | 43% | 43% | 38% | ||
| Hungary | 45% | 58% | 63% | 65% | 67% | 65% | |
| Poland | 95% | 96% | 95% | 92% | 90% | ||
| Romania | 89% | 92% | 92% | 95% | 92% | 93% | |
| Russia | 35% | 60% | 59% | 69% | 73% | 74% | |
| Serbia | 61% | 75% | 84% | 82% | |||
| Ukraine | 65% | 69% | 85% | 88% |
Story is instead one of revival from late Soviet state atheism through to the 2000s, as the “Soviet Freezer” thawed out.
Traditionally very religious Poland is beginning to dip markedly, confirming what I observed in 2019. I expect it to fall to <80% within the decade. Czechia remains steady at a very low rate. It has been traditionally atheist-leaning for various historical reasons (true for Poland as well, but in the opposite direction).
Strong revival in both Hungary and Serbia.
Russia has seemingly reached a plateau around 74%, after another strong revival. The US should fall decidedly past that number in the next decade, which is quite the stunning reversal relative to Cold War stereotypes (which were true).
Wonder where Ukraine went in the past five years. I would guess it plateaued out or declined.
| 1981-1984 | 1989-1993 | 1994-1998 | 1999-2004 | 2005-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2017-2020 | |
| Armenia | 79% | 95% | 95% | 91% | |||
| Azerbaijan | 95% | 86% | 100% | 97% | |||
| Georgia | 91% | 98% | 99% | 98% |
Caucasoids all in the 90%’s, though Armenia has always been the most atheist of the lot (in relative terms) with the exception of Azerbaijan’s anomalously low number during the 2005-2009 wave. Ironic, since Azerbaijan has a reputation as one of the most secular Muslim states.
Also some minor support for my guesstimate mentioned in recent posts that Armenian IQ is slightly above the Caucasus average (all else equal, the religious have lower IQ).
| 1981-1984 | 1989-1993 | 1994-1998 | 1999-2004 | 2005-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2017-2020 | |
| Kazakhstan | 89% | 88% | |||||
| Kyrgyzstan | 93% | 96% | 97% | ||||
| Tajikistan | 100% | ||||||
| Uzbekistan | 99% |
Near 100% in Central Asia (except Kazakhstan, but that’s clearly Russians). They are also the only major reason that has been seemingly unaffected by the TFR collapse of the past 5 years.
Developing World
| 1981-1984 | 1989-1993 | 1994-1998 | 1999-2004 | 2005-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2017-2020 | |
| Argentina | 83% | 90% | 93% | 95% | 91% | 92% | |
| Bangladesh | 98% | 99% | 100% | ||||
| Brazil | 98% | 99% | 98% | 96% | |||
| China | 17% | 17% | |||||
| India | 93% | 94% | 93% | 96% | |||
| Indonesia | 100% | 97% | |||||
| Iran | 99% | 99% | |||||
| Iraq | 99% | 100% | |||||
| Mexico | 97% | 92% | 93% | 98% | 94% | 96% | |
| Pakistan | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% |
No religious “revival” in China as some Christian missionary types like to proclaim.
Close to 100% in most of the “classic” Third World”, with no signs of abatement (though some may be starting on the downslope – I think Brazil might be a good candidate, in light of its collapsing TFR; in Pakistan, where TFR remains high and steady, this year’s result is probably a fluke, especially considering that it’s famously more Islamic than Bangladesh).
I was happy to finally see the question “How many children would you like to have” being asked again after a long period, but then came the zrada as the only countries asked that question were Ethiopia and Zimbabwe.
Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.
If you are new to my work, start here.
No less an authority on this subject than Jesus Christ himself called it so over 2000 years ago:
Matthew 24:12
No reason to worry though:
Matthew 24:13
The Finnish numbers don’t seem to track with membership in the Finnish Lutheran Church:
1980: 90% (of taxpayers)
1990: 88%
2000: 85%
2010: 78%
2019: 69%
Source is Dutton’s book about the Muslim rape epidemic in Finland. “The Silent Rape Epidemic”
I can’t wait to become old enough to see the Civilised world inherited by Afro-Indians.
The only hope is that US credentialist education system will collapse and will be replaced with something better and more sensible in the next 10 years or so (before my kids have to start thinking about college). Thankfully, this pandemic is looking very helpful to that end, thank you Corona-chan.
In general though, if religion can’t drive TFR up, it’s useless. In that sense, maybe Turks are doing something right. I mean, if religion by itself doesn’t get you anywhere (TFR = 1.5), but religion + expansionist mindset delivers results (TFR = 1.9 or more), then a few dozen $billion and a few thousand dead jihadi Syrian mercenaries and blown up drone toys are indeed a very small price to pay. In the long run, the benefits far outweigh the costs.
Although I would note, in many cultures, a positive answer to this survey question is not equivalent to organized religiosity – in European heritage countries, this question will be interpreted by survey respondents as a philosophical question.
For example, I will say “yes” if I was survey respondent, but it doesn’t imply organized religiosity.
Also most hippies will probably say “yes”. People who use psychedelic drugs will even have “direct encounters with god”.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6478303/ But hippies are not usually part of organized religion.
To see organized religiosity, we would need to look at the membership numbers of religious organizations and events within a country, i.e. it will require reporters to look at the country and its populations’ daily life and practices, rather than relying on “market research” style of survey.
Because its reputation for “secularism” is based on a secularist dictatorship, promotion of multireligions, and external concepts of lifestyle (i.e. women’s lifestyle, hijab usage), not whether those respondents will answer yes to this survey question.
In China, traditional religions do not believe in a single god. So the rate of answering “yes” could be also an indication of the level of Western influence in their answer to these kind of ontological survey questions.
Connection between fertility rates and organized religious lifestyle is not always very strong, and often seems more collateral effects of other variables (e.g. access to contraception – there is discussion here of the fertility reduction in many Arab countries: it’s not secularism, but technology: https://marciainhorn.com/wp-content/uploads/Inhorn_published.pdf )
Look at how countries like relatively secular Argentina and Uruguay, have higher “TFR” than very Muslim Bangladesh, or Qatar and UAE (where women can go to prison for wearing a bikini).
Among Muslim countries, a vastly more secular Kazakhstan, is higher than some very religious countries like Saudi Arabia where different genders are not allowed to interact, and you can become decapitated for blasphemy.
https://i.imgur.com/HYC7bzZ.jpg
This is Saudi Arabia, where you punishment of death for converting to another religion, has less children per women than Kazakhstan where mainstream culture looks like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xqW5zcSs4k
For me at least one column in each of those tables gets cut off.
“This seems to be occurring near everywhere in the West… with the market exception of Turkey (at least until of late). The neo-Ottomanist civilizational vigor is probably no accident.”
Another embarrassing clunker from Anatoly. Turkey’s 2019 TFR is 1.88 as reported by the Turkish Statistical Institute. However, the TFR of Kurdish dominated regions is 3+. This would be fine if most Kurds saw themselves as part of Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman project. One only needs basic math skills to estimate the fertility of Sunni Turks.
There is an “I don’t know” option for question, but it looks like the vast majority of countries answer strictly “yes” or ‘no”.
Highest “I don’t know” countries:
Japan 27.8%
New Zealand 17.1%
Czech 15.5%
Lithuania 12.3%
Estonia 12.0%
Bulgaria 10.4%
Italy 8.1
Belarus 7.5
Russia 6.9
Germany 6.3
Hungary 6.2
You can also view the generational differences (under 30, 30-49, over 50) in the answers. Outside of Japan and perhaps Australia, it looks like belief among under 30s is declining pretty much everywhere, although all of the 80-90% muslim and Latino countries probably needn’t worry about a small decline just yet.
Also, I’m a bit surprised so many people in the “religious” countries don’t believe in either life after death or heaven.
You might as well use your soiled diaper as a source. There is no rape epidemic in Scandinavia.
By your table Hungary has hovered around 65% for the last 25 years. I do not see a strong religious revival here. Sure, there seems to be some government effort for that, but I am skeptical about its effectiveness.
Coronavirus has done more to fix our countries than any nationalist could ever hope to.
No intelligent human being is truly capable of sincere belief in an afterlife or God. Pandemics have a beautiful way of culling religious people by infecting and killing them through their dirty worship gatherings, en masse. A trend that has been weakening religious acitivty since the bubonic plague:
http://thesis.honors.olemiss.edu/338/
^ Sound familiar? It’s natural selection.
Look up “Scandinavia.”
The Pope just endorsed civil unions. “Gay face” confirmed?
Is it just pandering to the crone vote or does the Hungarian government actually want a revival of religion? I could see why Russia would want it as the ROC is a nationally-oriented religion, hard to see how anyone nationally-minded in Hungary could imagine good coming out of telling people to listen to Rome.
So what.
The infallible church changed its eternal and unchanging teachings so many times, why not once more.
Since the beginning of Christianity, killing people was seen as sin. After 300 years, it was discovered that if the killing is done for glory of Roman Empire, it is great.
Since the beginning, slavery was seen as normal, but after 1800 years, it was discovered it is a sin.
Since the beginning, Jews were seen as children of Satan, but after 1900 years, it was discovered that they are honored elder brothers of Christians.
Since the beginning, usury was seen as sin. After 1500 years, if was discovered that if usury is done for profits of Medici and Fugger families, it is great.
https://revisionistreview.blogspot.com/2015/05/may-4-1515-reign-of-loansharks-begins.html
https://www.amazon.com/Usury-Christendom-Mortal-Sin-that/dp/0970378491
Many such cases.
All people north of 40th parallel North are congenital atheists; unless genetically defective or infected by cultural brainwashing (as many trashy Americans still are). It is literally not possible to make global North people truly believe immaterial bullshit, so why go against the grain and LARP?
Look up the nearest e-waste repository and take your thrift store computer there to be destroyed. The Scandinavian rape myth is a hoax perpetuated by cuck infiltrators of right wing web fora, who would be more at home among the feminists of the #MeToo movement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAd8p-OuQmc
Affluence is to religion is like sunlight is to a vampire. Poor people are in need of help from family, local community and country. So it is to the mutual advantage of the poor to be in a tight knit reciprocal assistance relationship. The Church is that.
Becoming a boss over people will make one narcissistic because the advantage is no longer mutual. The affluent unashamedly turn their back on their own, and that is why only poor folk are religious or nationalists. Easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than a rich man to believe in anything.
https://i.imgur.com/ACaZfyh.png
Strange conclusions.
Pakistan has seen a steadily declining TFR for decades now. It’s declining more gently than in other countries, in part because the pakistani establishment has long advocated policies for high fertility in order to close the massive population gap with India. But it’s still declining, continuously and relentlessly.
Bizarre statement.
Ethnic turks have a TFR of ~1.7. It is kurds, who aren’t exactly keen on ottoman projects, who are boosting turkey’s TFR. Their passions lie in their own state.
Central Asia is the biggest fertility puzzle right now.
https://i.imgur.com/Y3nTlDx.png
Net migration to Russia reached new highs in 2019. And given that these countries show no signs of slowing down fertility even as their population explodes, I expect Moscow to get much more turkic in the years to come. Better brush up on your pan-turkic bonafides, AK, and learn to appreciate their cuisine.
“This seems to be occurring near everywhere in the West… with the market exception of Turkey (at least until of late). The neo-Ottomanist civilizational vigor is probably no accident.”
I think Anatoly’s dunderhead statement about neo-Ottoman vigor is another sign of Russia’s rapidly developing love-fest with Turkdom.
Again this “do you believe in God” nonsense with Asian countries. You can be perfectly Buddhist, Taoist, Shinto, Shenist, Confucian, folk religion follower without believing in God, then again you can be a Pure Land Buddhist who does believe that the Buddha is like the God, or be Confucian or follower of Chinese folk religion who believes that there is Heaven/absolute, Tian, ultimate heavenly principle or will. I have now only mentioned the biggest religious communities, the question gets even more complicated with the Mongolian or Korean Shamanism, relatively small Chinese, Vietnamese and Korean local religious movements, which mix shamanism, taoism, local traditions etc…
I am so tired with this silly bullshit. I am religious, but I dont believe in the God, and I am not an exception.
Wait, are you basing this on self-reported polling figures?
Please don’t.
Yah, this is kinda a loaded question, because God != Metaphysics to some, but it certainly is when you hold an unverifiable world view.
When the west turns to the atheism of “God does not exist”, they are still faithful – in that they hold a metaphysical position and world view.
The most of them revert to more animistic beliefs.. 1 limb yoga with confused spirituality at best, or just animalism.
Very few people actually turn to the scientific method of observation/measurement, with its epistemological demand to limit truth to only the physical, directly verifiable world.
This can be seen by the current ‘Science’ lot eviscerating perfectly observed and verified ideas, for their wise men, and inferred or hoped for, and unverified beliefs.
So incels.
I don’t know the accuracy of the WVS (for one thing I find the immense contrast between Germany and Austria to be quite bizarre), but membership in state-affiliated churches in Western Europe is not a particularly good proxy for faith since many of them retain large membership rolls due to cultural and social reasons as well as due to habit.
I am not sure about other countries, but in Scandinavia Evangelical-Lutheran Confirmation is a big coming-of-age ceremony and social event. I don’t how it was in the past but in recent years it involves parties and lots of gifts.
I like to tell evangelical Christians with “end times” beliefs that we atheists also believe in the rapture: We can see that Christians have started to disappear.
I can see why the increasing visibility of atheists would give Christians the creeps. One, the morally and emotionally functional atheist – namely, not the cartoon atheist suffering from nihilism and despair – challenges the Christian theory of man’s nature.
And two, atheism as a social phenomenon shows an implicit arrow of time, from nearly nonexistent atheists in the past, to numerous atheists now, to possibly universal atheists in the future. To Christians, atheists look like an invasion of time travelers from an advanced civilization in the future after Christianity and similar religions have disappeared.
I find that unlikely, long-term trends indicate a secular decline independent of the present government’s militarist behaviour. Using this kind of reasoning we may as well conclude that Kemalist secularism and no active war fronts would have kept birth rates higher.
https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/milani_and_pakzadi_islamic_republic_of_iran_in_an_age_of_global_transitions_formatted-6.jpg
But most important for Turkey’s long-term future:
https://infographic.tv/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Map-Fertility-Turkey-2018-1122×509.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/Hdp2015Kas%C4%B1m.png/400px-Hdp2015Kas%C4%B1m.png
(2018 birth rates and from the 2015 general elections, respectively)
Rather than playing soldier abroad Erdogan should be encouraging the repatriation of his loyalists in Western Europe.
Not unlike the traditional “antisemitism measuring research” which gives out false positive in East Asia, because Japs, Koreans, and the Chinese answer to stuff like: “Do you think Jews are overrepresented in media, politics, and finance, and help each other out,” they answer with “Yes”.
But they don’t realize that you’re supposed to pretend the answer isn’t “Yes”, and if you do say “Yes”, you therefore allegedly imply “but this is a bad thing and we should make them all into lampshades”. So they just give an honest “Yes” which then gets misinterpreted by the 1st worlders.
Likewise with the Hindus saying “Yes Hitler was a great man”–to them this just means they agree he was a historical figure on par with Napoleon and Alexander, not that that “he was right we should make Jews into lampshades” or “he was right, Slavs are subhumans”.
Religiosity and openness to religious experience appears to be to some extent hereditary; religiosity is also linked to IQ, lower IQ meaning higher likelihood of being religious. In Western countries you seem to see this trend of highly religious people (regardless of IQ) having a lot of children and low IQ people having a lot of children and atheists in the higher IQ+midwit range having the lowest number of children. Many of them are sterile despite the favourable conditions for raising children.
In Anglo countries there is also the recent emergence of the Woke religion, centred on millennial midwit groups. Seeing this, and the way it has been taking over former apparent adherents of scientific naturalism, the persistent latent strength of Protestant modes of thinking in these cultures is surprisingly revealed.
These trends make me doubt the idea that the future will obviously be less religious, even if fewer people affirm belief in a monotheistic God.
I look for the resurrection of the dead, And the life of the age to come. Amen.
No ‘heaven’ here. No ‘life after death’ in the conventional sense either.
‘Heaven’ is a pagan concept. Christians can acknowledge it as (broadly) factually correct, but the belief has no basis in Christian teaching or theology.
They believe that Fentanyl Floyd could’ve been a Supreme Court judge, which is much more absurd then anything in the Bible
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charvaka
Indian materialism flourished and then died out by the 12th century.
Atheism, in standing in opposition to theism, is just another faith – another take on the metaphysical.
Well all my observations are relative.
Turkey has a higher TFR than Greece or most of its non-Third World neighbors, is also in a highly expansionist foreign policy mood. (While Greece focuses instead on locking up its own nationalists).
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek5S76GWkAAN6FF.jpg
The TFR of Arab countries in significantly underestimated, due to the high number of foreign migrant-worker women being counted. For instance, the TFR of ethnic Qataris was actually 3.59 in 2010.
No, the Tri-Supremacist Worship of Jews, blacks. and homos is the new religion.
As I pointed out many times, while the belief in transcendent divinity
may be declining, the belief in immanent divinity (i.e., return to paganism
at its best) is definitely increasing, and this won’t be reflected in crude
surveys of this sort. The existence of transcendent divinity (e.g., Creator
God) is not obvious philosophically speaking, but the existence of
immanent divinity becomes obvious to anyone who has experienced
expanded, transegoic states of consciousness. To such a person everything
he looks at becomes sacred, filled with effulgent divinity, and not just
trees and rivers, but human beings as well. Even better are satori (or
kensho) experiences, generally interpreted as indicating early stages
in the process of enlightenment, in which one experiences himself as
one with the mountain, river, or tree one is looking at /what is
generally termed the experience of “no boundary.”/ This has profound
ethical consequences because you realize that you cannot hurt someone
without simultaneously hurting yourself – after all, we are all interconnected,
we are all One.
Contemplating these large distortions in Arab stats should be an eye-opener for Europeans. Likely, the reverse effect in Europe, with migrants with higher TFR inflating native numbers which are even lower than they appear to be.
Romanian monasteries are flourishing, especially those in the mountains.
Google images for:
Caraiman Monastery
Râmeț Monastery
Sambata de Sus Monastery
Mănăstirea Crasna Prahova
There are many others churches and monasteries that have been built or vastly enlarged since the end of communism.
You looked at single or several countries to compare instead of the regional or global situation.
Muslims have higher TFR than non-muslims in all regions of the world as well as in the world overall.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/06/why-muslims-are-the-worlds-fastest-growing-religious-group/
What is notable from the regional situation is that muslims have higher TFR than the locals within non-muslim countries too.
The majority of the 15 countries in the world experiencing the fastest fertility declines in the last decade, are Muslim countries.
They are a several decades behind the modern world (Islam correlates with delay in economic development) , but fertility rates in Muslim countries are falling much faster than had been expected.
Well if you select too many countries at once, then the chart becomes confusing to read.
If we look at some Semitic countries, then Christian Ethiopia and Eritrea have the highest fertility rate of the Semitic nationalities. Muslim Semitic countries have a wide spread. But for example, 21% Muslim Israel has higher fertility rates than 97% Muslim neighbour Jordan.
Egypt and Iraq are still very high. (Iraq is majority Shia, like Iran – yet the fertility rate has wide difference between co-religious Iraq and Iran).
Who cares if you have some revival in Serbia, Hungary, Russia or Ukraine, if 1% of people go to mass on Sunday. Unless one believes that declaration of will is sufficient to maintain some religiosity and for religion to have an effect on society. If Russians kiss icons occassionally, then does it sustain religion in a strong way? I doubt.
It is hard to tell. The churches are generally reliable supporters of fidesz (or to be more precise kdnp – christian democrats, which is more or less a semi-independent part of fidesz now, not a proper party). They also were “given” a lot of schools to run – generally the ones that used to be run by foundations. Essentially the government made it pretty difficult to run a school for anyone who is not a local council / city the state or church, so many schools had no choice but to come under the umbrella of a church.
I do not think that there is a consensus about the role of the churches in the government though. For example the religious part (kdnp) had their pet project of closing shops on Sundays – which has been really unpopular among the general public. They managed to implement it in 2015, but the government went back on it in 2016…
I do not have many religious friends, so I am probably not the best to judge the attitudes of the religious organizations, nevertheless my impression is that even the hungarian catholic church is less enthusiastic about mass migration than they are supposed to be, while the non-catholic ones can more easily dismiss the guidance of the pope.
It matters, because this means that muslims are growing as a percentage of the world population as well as as a percentage within non-muslim countries, or percentage in world’s regions.
The important point is that when muslims and non-muslims are within one country, muslims have higher birth rate.
The other important point is that muslims will reach 35 % of the world population in 2100 (according to Pew) compared to 24 % today – which is an all time high muslim percentage of the world population.
Muslim women are generally pretty attractive.
This is cultural appropriation of the Christian idea of the “Omega Point”.
In secular terms, anyone on the Right that proclaims an “arc of history bends towards justice” nonsense should be rejected. Our view is cyclical, not linear.
Jussie is our savior.
Most Westerners are not mentally prepared for being pushed around by Black Africans and Muslims. But as population is power, it is coming.
It’s one think when Woke is enforced by white women, its another when every city has a Sadiq Khan style mayor who fills the bureaucracy with his ethnic group.
The Third World will be able to demand significantly higher taxes on Western owned mineral/agriculture operations, if not an outright expropriation. I suspect this is one reason why Western elites favor the growth of diasporas here.
The result of the Western world falling away from God can be read in Deuteronomy Chapter 28:15-68.
The UK, France and Belgium will be the first nations where the patriotic natives will be overpowered politically by a coalition of Muslims, Africans and Pink natives sympathetic to the the former two groups. Of course, there will be divisions within this coalition so the tipping point might take a little longer than expected but probably within our lifetimes (if you are 40 years of age and we assume current life expectancy). However, as this coalition anticipates its dominance, it will increasingly become self-confident. Also, the political system will increasingly seek to pander to their demands. Westerners in these countries who are currently sympathetic to Azeris and Turks against Christians will rapidly regret their former views as they are forced to adjust to dhimmitude. Eventually, the first two partners of this Islamo-Afro-Pink coalition will then crush their Pink partners. One has only to study what happened to the Liberals and the Left during Iranian Revolution once the Ayatollah Khomeini garnered enough confidence. Some patriotic natives might survive begrudgingly in certain occupations and geographically isolated areas for the ones that want to retain some semblance of sovereignty. For example, the Druze have managed to survive around Jabal-Al Druze or Zoroastrians in Yazd or Yezidis in Nineveh and Dohuk. Therefore, isolated valleys and plateaus in the Scottish Highlands or the Massif Central in France might be ideal areas for the patriotic natives to eke out a living.
Refugee transfer in the US has often focused on rural small towns, mainly for the meat industry, but also I suspect to deny a concentration of force in an insurrection.
Our survival as cultures is highly dependent on bridging the gender gap. Our people cannot survive a culture of polygamy that will see white women hypergamously marry out.
But this is “demographic momentum”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htw2b4iXCEc
The trend of falls in fertility rates we are seeing now, will still be many years to feed through to stable Muslim population size, because of the “demographic momentum” in their age-structure.
Agreed. And not just in Europe. Australia, the US and Canada are obvious examples of countries in which the white TFR is probably much much lower than it appears to be.
Of course once those immigrant groups become assimilated their fertility rates will crash as well.
You can’t have a modern urbanised consumerist capitalist society with mass education and mass media without eventually having complete demographic collapse.
You also can’t have a modern urbanised consumerist capitalist society with mass education and mass media without eventually having a complete collapse of organised religion.
The U.S. keeps fertility statistics by race. We have a decent idea of what the white TFR is.
On the subject of migrant fertility, the U.S. isn’t really similar to any of those countries(at least not yet). Immigrants don’t merely outbreed whites, they impact blacks as well. If you look at the U.S. state with the highest Hispanic fertility, that being Alabama, you will find the black and white TFR is almost identical. But the Hispanic TFR is almost double. The states with the largest black and white differences are northern states with generous welfare systems supporting ghetto blacks. Welfare and immigration from the Caribbean/Africa are the only thing keeping black TFR from collapsing. Since blacks are a much smaller percentage of the population, TFR drops could rather quickly make blacks politically irrelevant. What’s better, the Democrats are doing their best to liquidate American blacks by making abortion available on demand. If only conservatives could be made to get out of the way. The Ku Klux Klan were right about Catholics.
It makes sense to compare the white rate versus non-white rate in those other countries you mentioned. But the U.S. is a different category.
Agreed. The Christian revivals in eastern Europe are illusory. Old people who couldn’t go to church regular under communism can now do so. But in the long term the trend is towards an inexorable collapse in Christianity. The idea that Christianity is thriving in Russia/eastern Europe is just another right-wing cope.
The long-term struggle between Christianity and materialist liberalism is not going to be won by Christianity.
Judaism and Islam are almost certain to lose in the long term as well.
You’re not taking account of the fact that many second and third generation Moslem immigrants will abandon Islam and become totally assimilated into western liberal culture. It’s already happening. In the long term Islam will not survive in the West, except as a small steadily declining minority religion.
“demographic momentum”
There is no evidence of muslims and non-muslims having similar TFR, in the vast majority of world’s countries (even within countries), and thus as long as this is not the case, it won’t be simply a momentum but actual higher TFR, in real time. Not simply younger population.
Even though all groups have fertility declines, TFR between groups is not equal, and the declines they had are not equal too.
There are no aetheists in a fox hole.
SARS2 and a mega recession will revive religion outside social democracies.
The Orthodox Church has always regarded the Roman Church as addicted to “innovation”. They change whatever is needed — from filioque onwards to gay unions — and then pretend it was always so. (It’s easy when you can silence or burn the doubters). See Philip Sherrard, Greek East and Latin West.
It’s funny/sad to see these right-wingers cling to “The Church” as some sort of infallible bastion of eternal truth.
Hey, when you’ve already damned yourself to eternal Hell by lying about the Trinity, what’s a few bits of usury or gay unions matter?
If not kept under supervision or living in ghetto environment, I think that 20-40% non-black Muslims would ditch Islam.
Love the classifications they did! Greece is in the “developed world” with Germany et al and Argentina is a “developing country” right there with Bangladesh. Though I have to hand it to them for having a separate section for post-communist countries.
Repressed demand for churchgoing during the Communist period led to the Renaissance afterwards, when many new churches were built.
However, I believe that the Romanian Orthodox Church is self-secularizing without meaning to, undergoing a “managerial revolution” of its own.
While individual priests may still be conservative (though very much of this world in behavior), the Church has ceased to speak publicly about Jesus Christ, God’s love, and emits generic bromides about doing good, loving thy neighbor etc, watering down the message to appeal to a wider swathe of the newer audience.
The kids are now functionally agnostic or deistic. Even the anticlerical ones may go to Church on Easter and Christmas, but they still hate the institution and they do it out of a feeling of family tradition and continuity. However, it is not a part of their daily lives, just a ritual they submit to in order to affirm identity. The next generation will not do even that.
The vitriol directed against the new Cathedral of the Romanian Patriarchy was an indication of what is going wrong. A project 100 years in the making whose completion will simply set us religiously on the same level as Bulgaria and Serbia. The minority who strongly contested it using social media and the mainstream media did so either ideologically, or in a utilitarian mode (think of the hospitals we could have built).
In the end, our churches, including the monasteries you mention, may also become a “museum culture” rather than a lived one, with Romanians as deracinated as any Westerner, kept ethnocentric (and apart) only by dislike of Gypsies, Hungarians and Russians and by the continuing failure to close the material gaps with the West.
PS I also say I am Orthodox to the Census takers, but I am an atheist.
David Goldman (Spengler) has an older book “How Civilizations Die (And Why Islam Is Dying Too)” which argues that the aggression of Islam is borne out of rapid demographic decline and the attendant nihilism. I do not know whether the past 9 years have changed his views.
The book turned me off when he quoted Jared Diamond approvingly that a Kalahari Bushman moved to a Glaswegian steel worker’s family to be raised there would be no different than a Scotsman.
Yup. “Whole village goes to church, we must go too” works when you live in small village where everyone knows and watches each other. When you move to big city where no one GAF about you, church attendance gets dropped fast in favor of more sleep 🙂
You are right, but your view is also unflattering. I know people who do it on the special, traditional occasions, despite the family being all dead and them being in the big city with no one to watch. But whatever makes them affirm a communion with an institution they frequently admit to despising for the failings of its priesthood, there is nothing that will make their 1.3 kids do so as well. My BoBo friends take the kids to church once in awhile also as a kind of traditionalist LARPing (and for a sort of Pascal’s wager good luck charm kind of thing), like the resurgence of clothing in traditional patterns and weaves.
What countries are you comparing?
If you compare neighbouring countries where a majority Muslim country is geographically next to a majority non-Muslim country, it’s clear that Islam is not a sufficient condition for higher fertility than non-Muslim country of similar type.
For example, Muslim Bangladesh, has lower fertility rates than its two non-Muslim neighbours.
https://i.imgur.com/ozGN1gG.jpg
Or 21% Muslim Israel is higher than 97% Muslim Jordan.
https://i.imgur.com/C98cRKC.jpg
Of course, there is a lot of inequality in terms of time. Germany had demographic transition more than a century ago. While in China – this process was only in the 1970s-1980s.
But the Muslim world is now in classic demographic transition. The population will continue expanding rapidly because of the demographic momentum.
https://i.imgur.com/6XzoLaG.jpg
Several 1 vs 1 country comparisons are useless, as it allows for cherry picking. One compares all muslims in the world vs all non-muslims, or muslims and non-muslims within the same country, or within a continent.
Even those cases brought by you are not very illuminative of the situation, as there are counter cases too, and muslims in Israel have higher TFR than non-muslims in Israel, muslims in Pakistan have higher TFR than indians, or muslims within India have higher TFR than hindus.
Thus trying to pick up isolated cases instead of looking at the picture as a whole is wrong.
As for the demographic transition of muslims, there are three points countering that:
In poor countries, muslims have higher TFR than non-muslims.
In middle income countries, muslims have higher TFR than non-muslims.
In rich countries, muslims have higher TFR than non-muslims.
As of now there is no evidence of muslims and non-muslims having the same TFR within the vast majority of countries.
Its propaganda imo, since muslims have higher TFR than non-muslims within the world overall, as well as within continents and within most countries. Too much cherry picking.
As for demographics promising strength, again it is propaganda for fools, otherwise african countries would be the world’s greatest powers.