Since the end of the Malthusian era, science-based technological growth has been the source of almost all long-term economic growth. However, we also know that it didn’t accrue in all regions evenly. For instance, Charles Murray in Human Accomplishment showed that the vast majority of “eminent” figures in science and the arts hailed from Europe, especially its central “core”. Areas that saw high intensities of researchers centuries ago tend to remain at the forefront of world economic success to the present day.
Despite the hype around Moore’s Law, there is mounting and disquieting evidence that technological growth is slowing down. It takes more and more researchers to get similar rates of innovation. The price of chip fabs double with every new quadrupling in chip density (Rock’s Law). At the most fundamental level, problems tend to get harder – not easier – as one climbs up the technological ladder (see my article Apollo’s Ascent). Meanwhile, the epochal increases in literacy, population, and average IQ in the past two centuries that have increased the human capital available to our civilization by several orders of magnitude are now petering out.
Given these mounting constraints on the future expansion of technological civilization, I would submit that it is now especially important to acquire a good understanding of where elite science currently comes from.
The Nature Index
What can we use as a proxy? Nobel Prizes in the sciences lag real world accomplishments by 20-30 years. Measures of individual eminence, such as Pantheon, only become crisp in long-term retrospect, and moreover, the Human Accomplishment database only runs to 1950. Total number of articles published, patents granted, R&D personnel, or R&D spending don’t adjust for quality. University rankings may be biased due to reputational and “brand” name factors, such as the worldwide prestige enjoyed by Oxbridge and the Ivy League. What can we then use instead?
The Nature Index (natureindex.com) bypasses almost all of these problems. This index measures the amount of publications in the 82 most prestigious scientific journals in the natural sciences. While they account for less than 1% of natural science journals in the Web of Science database, they produce almost 30% of all citations in this sphere. Every year, every research institution and country that contributed to these journals gets a score on the Nature Index measuring its research output (there is also a “running total” for the past year that covers Dec 2017-Nov 2018 as of the time of writing). This makes the Nature Index an ideal source of crisp, up-to-date, quantitative data on the production of elite level science.
There are two versions of this index: AC (article count) and FC (fractional count). In the former, every author’s institute and country gets a uniform score regardless of the number of coauthors. In the latter, every accepted article gets one point, which is divided equally between its co-authors’ institutions and countries. It would appear that FC would be the better measure of the true level of elite science production, while AC would be a better measure of involvement in international scientific collaboration.
The Noosphere
So where do the “Science Points” in our run of the Civilization game get generated?
| Country | FC12 | FC13 | FC14 | FC15 | FC16 | FC17 | FC18 | Grow | pc | |
| 1 | USA | 37.2% | 36.5% | 34.9% | 35.0% | 34.6% | 34.1% | 32.8% | -2.1% | 100.0 |
| 2 | China | 8.9% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 18.4% | 12.7% | 10.9 |
| 3 | Germany | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | -1.3% | 87.8 |
| 4 | UK | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | -1.0% | 90.9 |
| 5 | Japan | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | -5.0% | 40.1 |
| 6 | France | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | -4.1% | 53.6 |
| 7 | Canada | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | -2.2% | 69.9 |
| 8 | Switzerland | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.4% | 259.9 |
| 9 | Korea | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.1% | 41.4 |
| 10 | Spain | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | -3.7% | 38.4 |
| 11 | Australia | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 71.7 |
| 12 | Italy | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | -3.9% | 27.8 |
| 13 | India | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2 |
| 14 | Netherlands | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 86.7 |
| 15 | Singapore | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 176.7 |
| 16 | Sweden | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 97.7 |
| 17 | Israel | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | -0.9% | 110.2 |
| 18 | Taiwan | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | -10.1% | 29.7 |
| 19 | Russia | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 4.7 |
| 20 | Belgium | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.7% | 57.4 |
| 21 | Austria | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 69.4 |
| 22 | Denmark | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 102.1 |
| 23 | Brazil | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 4.0% | 2.0 |
| 24 | Poland | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 9.5 |
| 25 | Czechia | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 5.4% | 30.0 |
This table shows each country’s global share of the FC, that share’s annual growth rate from 2012-2018, and per capita performance relative to the USA (=100).
Note that data for FC2018 is based on Dec 2017-Nov 2018, since the final data for the year is not available yet.
The immediate thing that strikes one is the sheer extent to which global science production is lopsided in favor of the developed world.
World map of elite science production per capita (USA=100%), based on Nature Index 2018 (FC 2017 – that is, fractional count for the year 2017).
In per capita terms, the US plus “core Europe” (Switzerland is single best performer) dominate, while developed East Asia & the Mediterranean are twice lower. China and Eastern Europe are 3-4 times lower in turn, while the Third World is negligible.
In absolute terms, there is an emerging triarchy dominated by the US (33% of global elite science production), the EU (27%, of which just ~1% accrues to the new members), and China (18%).
Those three blocs accounting for almost 80% of global science production. Almost all of the rest accrues to other developed countries, such as Japan, Switzerland (its 8.5 million people account for 2.3% of elite science production – marginally more so than South Korea’s 52 million!), and the various Anglo (Australia, Canada, New Zealand) and Sino (Taiwan, Singapore) territories. India accounts for just 1.7%, Russia and the V4 – about 0.8% each; Brazil – 0.5%.
About 68% of world elite science production (76% in 2012) accrues to what we might term “the West” (the “Five Eyes” Anglosphere, the EU-28, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Israel). Another 27% (20% in 2012) accrues to East Asia (the Sinosphere, Japan, the Koreas, and Vietnam); the Sinosphere itself (China, Taiwan, Singapore) accounts for 20% of it, up from 11%. In total, the global demographic that John Derbyshire refers to as “ice people” – high IQ northerners, i.e. “Greater Europe” (the West, f.USSR, and non-EU Balkans) and East Asia – account for an astounding 96.2% of global elite science production. Moreover, even as the balance within the “ice people” shifted from the West to East Asia during the past half decade, their overall share of elite science production has remained almost perfectly constant (96.4% in 2012).
The remainder is accounted for by India (1.6%; up from 1.5% in 2012); East-Central Europe (~1.1% up from 1.0%); Latin America (~1.1%; up from ~0.9%); Russia (0.75%; up from 0.59%); Dar Al-Islam (~0.70%; up from ~0.42%); Sub-Saharan Africa (0.20%; up from ~0.11%).
NOTE: Data for lower ranked countries (not in Top 50) is not available for 2012-2014, so the above figures will slightly overstate the improvements within blocs containing many such countries, e.g. Dar Al-Islam and Africa. This is not going to make any significant difference to global patterns, as the Top 50 countries consistently account for >99.5% of world elite science production.
Within the developed countries, the EU and the US have both lost their share of global scientific production at an annual rate of ~2% since 2012. However, there are marked national differences. The Mediterranean (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece), France, and Japan have all collapsed at 3-5% per annum; meanwhile, Switzerland and the UK have almost tread water, while the Scandinavians and Australians outright increased their shares by ~1% and ~2.5% per annum, respectively. The Med’s underperformance relative to Northern Europe may be linked to brain drain,
The Visegrad countries increased their share at a modest 2.5% per annum (modest because they should be at least the level of the Mediterranean). However, there are major differences between them. Starting off at 0.23% and 0.16% of world elite science production, respectively, Czechia increased its share to 0.32% by 2018, versus a decline to 0.13% in Hungary. Orban has not been good for Hungarian science. Poland was middling between the two, increasing from 0.35% to 0.38% of world elite science production.
As mentioned above, Russia increased its share from 0.59% to 0.75% from 2012-2018, translating into 4% annual increases (although coming from the collapsed post-Soviet base). While Russia is a minnow on the global stage, it has nonetheless consistently produced 90% of elite science in the former Soviet space. The Ukraine collapsed from 0.07% to 0.03% during this same period, translating to an annual declnie of 10% every year; together with Taiwan, this is the worst performance of any country in the Top 50. The only other countries of note are in the Baltics, which have collectively increased their share from 0.03% to 0.05%.
China has seen blistering growth rate of 13% per annum (!), overtaking Poland in per capita terms. In the process, it has gone from 24% to 56% of US absolute performance from 2012-2018 while doubling its share of global elite science production from 9% to 18%. China’s share of the Sinosphere has soared from 81% in 2012 to 92% by 2018. In the meantime, Taiwan saw the biggest collapse of any major scientific country, with its share of global production falling by 10% annually between 2012-18. I have speculated that this may be a direct result of China’s “31 Steps for Taiwan” strategy to drain the renegade island of human capital.
South Korea lost its share at a rate of 1% per annum, suggesting that it had already fully converged to its potential c.2010.
It is worth noting that some 0.14% (up from 0.11% in 2012) points of Sub-Saharan Africa’s 0.20% share of world elite science production accrues to the Republic of South Africa. Consequently, “Black Africa” north of the RSA produces just 0.05% of world elite science production. This means that tiny Switzerland produces ~50 times more elite science than all of Black Africa, despite having just 1% of its population size; the average Swiss is 5,000 more scientifically productive than the average Sub-Saharan African.
IQ and the Noosphere
What explains the regional patterns above! You guessed it!
* Karlin, Anatoly, and Andrey Grigoriev. 2019. “Модель факторов инновационной эффективности страны.” Siberian Psychology Journal. [PDF] [in Russian]
We found explained variance of 40% between national IQ and research output when fitted with a quadratic function, which increased to 54% when we adjusted for the impact of a socialist legacy in the past or present, and this socialist legacy’s interaction with IQ. GDP per capita was not found to predict science production above that predicted by average IQ, while IQ did account for 7% points above what just GDP pre capita explained. National IQ was likewise found to be explain more of the variance in science production than personality factors.
Scientific production (per capita) is generally imperceptible within countries with an average IQ lower than 90, and largely insignificant in countries with an average IQ lower than 95.
There appears to be an order of magnitude increase in per capita elite science production for every 10 point gain in national average IQ.
The Future of the Noosphere
As we have established, only a small subset of high-IQ capitalist countries hosting most of the world’s “smart fractions” are responsible for 95%+ of elite science production. This would not be a surprise to HBD/IQ realistists. However, it doesn’t hurt to underline an important implication: If “ice people” were to vanish, world science production would, very likely, come to a complete standstill. And then we get the Age of Malthusian Industrialism.
It is true that many countries are performing below potential. In particular, on the basis of national IQs, I expect the countries of the former socialist bloc – Visegrad, Balts, and ex-USSR – to converge to at least Mediterranean levels (Czechia is already there). This presumes a further doubling in Poland’s performance, and a quadrupling in Russia’s (at least so long as funding is forthcoming). However, the limited demographic weight of these regions will make their impact largely irrelevant on the global level, even should they converge to US/core Europe levels.
While Chinese science production will eventually dominate the world – just as it will economically, and probably militarily – I would caution against an excess of Sinotriumph. Despite their high average IQs, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have all ended up converging at the level of the Mediterranean countries such as Italy and Spain. Now China tends to lag South Korean development by a remarkably constant 20 years; extending this into the future against South Korea’s “scientific convergence” data of ~2010 suggests that Chinese science production will max out relative to the US within another decade by ~2030. If that asymptote is somewhere around that of Korea and Taiwan – which generate 41% and 30% of US per capita elite science production, respectively – then total elite Chinese scientific output will not exceed the American figures by much more than 50%. Consequently, at this point, we may only reasonably expect for China to add another America’s worth of elite science production to the world before it stabilizes (as opposed to 3-4 Americas’ worth if its science generation was a straightforward function of average IQ).
Explaining East Asian economic and innovation underperformance relative to their IQs is a topic for other posts, though I think it can likely be attributed to much higher levels of conformism.
There are no good grounds to believe that other regions of the world will become scientific powerhouses anytime soon.
The only partial exception may be India, which has a Brahmin smart fraction that is equivalent in absolute size to the population of a large European country. However, one should not expect miracles. Despite vigorous economic development in the past half decade, India’s share of global science production has barely budged.
The only significant upwards exception to the IQ-science production correlation is Saudi Arabia, which produces a modest amount of elite science – almost all of it at KAUST, a lavishly funded institution whose overwhelmingly Western professors were poached with oil money.
Consequently, the prospects for radically increasing world elite science production without machine superintelligence or genomic IQ augmentation seem rather limited.
This will mainly come from more efficient utilization of Chinese & East European talent, which can be expected to converge to Med levels but probably no further. In the meantime, dysgenic fertility trends will continue, even as the Flynn Effect completely peters out as almost the entire world gets access to sufficient schooling, adequate nutrition and healthcare, and near optimal institutions. And – needless to say – the problems that need to be solved for further progress to occur will tend to get harder and harder.
However, there’s also good news – the possibility of science production collapse due to demographic change may not be as serious as some HBD realists and/or immigration restrictionists tend to believe. While massive Third World immigration may lower average IQs, the native smart fractions are still preserved; and it is the quantity of these smart fractions, not average IQ per se, that plays a much greater role in economic prosperity and scientific productivity. Scandinavia remains on the ascent, memes about “Sweden Yes” regardless. Repeated SJW censorship scandals regardless – from dismissing a respected academic for making a light-hearted joke about women to the recent hounding of Noah Carl out of a fellowship at Cambridge University – the United Kingdom continues to do rather well. Despite the continuing depletion of its European population, South Africa – perhaps the most extreme case of “population replacement” – actually increased its share of global elite science production between 2012 and 2018. Meanwhile, it has fallen in Orban’s Hungary, despite its as of yet significant unexploited human potential.
Diversity may be a long-term risk to scientific production, but anti-intellectual populism is a much more immediate one. Recent news of Brazil’s Bolsonaro slashing university funding by 30% will soon provide us with another test case.
Thank you for making this point, the first time I have seen it stated by an HBD proponent.
I have been making this point for some time, that immigration leading to lower average IQs, while bad, cannot logically lower scientific productivity because in absolute numbers the talented fraction remains unaffected. There are still the same numbers of smart people.
I made this point on Vox Days blog once and he furiously attacked me disagreeing. (145 IQ lol)
I am beginning to think that people have an innately hard time grasping the difference between “absolute numbers” and “average IQ”.
I think this also accounts for why it was so hard for otherwise intelligent people to understand that higher Jewish IQ could not possibly account for their dominance, because in absolute numbers of smart people Jews are dwarfed by whites.
A surprisingly large number of people had a hard time understanding this and continue to misunderstand this distinction.
They say even smart people have a hard time intuitively grasping statistics.
Some things don’t come naturally to most people.
But it is good that a major HBD proponent is beginning to introduce greater nuance and sophistication into what is all too often a simplistic philosophy.
The post overall manages to achieve an unusual level of nuance for an HBD perspective, but unfortunately continues to suffer from major distortions in characterizing the data collected.
Great post. This is why I read this blog.
India’s smart fraction is not exclusively Brahmin(3% of population).
I would say about 20% of other upper caste Hindus(15% of population)score at Brahmin levels IQ wise. So 3% here.
Maybe another 2% of rest of the country..so 1.6 %.
So we approx 7.6% of the 1.4 billion population is the POTENTIAL high IQ pool… approx 100 million.
But there is only a faint glimmer of hope of this being anywhere close to being fully realized anytime soon…
Also in India like in other countries the idiots are outbreeding the relatively more intelligent at an alarming rate…
Is third-world scientific production depressed by smart fractions moving to Western countries (and universities)?
All the more to worry about the birth rate collapse in the smart world.
I think there are two things that should probably be distinguished because their likelihood of change differs:
a) How many people from a certain country will become excellent scientists on the highest levels.
b) How a certain country can develop excellent research centers and entice elite scientists to move there.
From the perspective of Switzerland, the leader in that statistic, it seems a bit odd when elite science production is set into relation with the country’s population of a bit more than 8 million. After all, the typical situation of elite research in Switzerland is that most researchers came from abroad because Swiss research institutions offered them better conditions than institutions in other countries like their country of origin. According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Switzerland, Switzerland is the country with the highest proportion of foreign researchers (57%, and I suppose in real elite research, the proportion of foreign researchers is even higher).
The situation in Switzerland is certainly not exactly the same like in Saudi Arabia with KAUST (mostly Western researchers poached with oil money). There is also quite a significant number of Swiss people among the researchers, even if they are a minority, and the native population probably plays a role in creating the conditions for elite research. But I suppose as far as elite scientists with a certain ancestry are concerned, Switzerland is probably on a similar level like other Western European countries, while its massive overrepresentation in the Nature index mostly comes from its ability to attract elite scientists from other countries.
Migration of elite scientists leads to a massively higher score for Switzerland and a moderately lower score for all those countries the people doing elite research in Switzerland come from (mostly EU, but some also from Russia, China, US etc.). That lowering effect is probably relatively moderate, after all, Switzerland is small, and in absolute terms, there are not so many elite scientists here, even if in relative terms, there are many.
But there is also migration between Asian countries, Europe and the US. I have not looked at the numbers, but I think it is fair to assume that there are by far more East Asians doing research in the US and Europe than Europeans and Americans doing research in East Asia.
So, on one hand, we know something about the distribution of intelligence in different countries and can attempt to estimate how many people will become elite scientists on that basis. I think that works to some degree, and the results as far as, for example “ice people” and “sun people” are concerned, seem quite robust. But then, the question is still where these elite scientists will do their research, and in many cases, it won’t be in their home country. The places elite scientists mostly move to might be subject to change to a higher degree than facts about intelligence distribution in different countries (though, of course, in the long run migration of elite scientists has also some influence on the intelligence distribution of the native population in the target country when some of the elite scientists who go to another country to do research remain there permanently and procreate there).
Vox Day is very much into ethno-nationalism as a stand-alone value independent of technological innovation and productive accomplishment. He appears to be motivated by wanting to live in a society of his “own kind” rather than that of higher functioning individuals.
In this sense, Vox’s world-view can actually be described as feudal (as is much of the alt-right). I, too, no longer post this kind of issue on his blog. There is no point.
Modern science has nothing at all to do with innovation or technology.
I’m intimately familiar in a direct way with the way science works. Trust the source here.
“I think this also accounts for why it was so hard for otherwise intelligent people to understand that higher Jewish IQ could not possibly account for their dominance, because in absolute numbers of smart people Jews are dwarfed by whites.”
It depends on where you set the limit. Certainly, in countries like the US with a significant, but small Jewish population, among at least moderately smart people, the vast majority is non-Jewish.
But it is generally assumed that IQ of sub-populations is normally distributed. So, if the mean of the distribution within a sub-population is significantly higher, as is the case with Ashkenazi Jews, in the tails of the distribution (for example an IQ about 40), the share of that sub-population will be larger – and the more extreme the tail we look at is, the more will that sub-population with a significantly higher mean be overrepresented.
If Jews (mostly Ashkenazi, as far as the US is concerned) have a mean IQ that is 15 points higher than that of gentiles, and the standard deviation is 15 in both cases, it would be expected that among people with an IQ over 145, Jews would be represented with 25.6%, even though they are only 2% of the population. If you take a higher limit, the expected share would be even higher.
It should probably be taken into account that mostly the verbal IQ is significantly higher in the Jewish population while that spacial IQ is not particularly high. One can discuss whether the overrepresentation of Jewish people in elite position is what would be expected – probably in some areas it is greater and in some it is smaller, but it is clearly not the case that it is obvious that the IQ difference cannot generrally explain it. It may be that further factors will be needed, but it does not seem far-fetched that the IQ difference alone explains it quite well.
Many HBDers were reasoning based on the assumption that Jewish IQ was 115 and with no fait tails.
From this, they concluded that Jewish dominance was entirely a function of higher IQ, despite the fact that these numbers produce a Jewish smart fraction of at most 25% of the American population.
To me, this shows an inability to intuitively grasp statistics – it is clear they saw Jews and whites as “individuals”, not aggregates, with the stronger “individual” dominating.
Seeing nations as “individuals” rather than aggregates seems to be an error even smart people are extremely prone to and have a very hard time getting beyond.
There are other elements to why their position was plainly illogical as well, but I have no wish to get into the larger argument.
That’s correct in general, but Vox Day was plainly not able to understand the difference between averages and absolutes when it comes to groups. There was s bit of a back and forth, and he just couldn’t get it.
I think humans have a feature in their minds that make them see groups as individual units, and then match unit to unit as if they were individuals, with the averages being more important than total size.
“I have been making this point for some time, that immigration leading to lower average IQs, while bad, cannot logically lower scientific productivity because in absolute numbers the talented fraction remains unaffected. There are still the same numbers of smart people.”
I wouldn’t say that at all; or at least I would say the situation isn’t quite what you may think of it. Changing demographics* can certainly change economic/scientific/national policy, perhaps disastrously so. Karlin’s piece ends with an ominous reference to the Brazilian president, but it just as easily might have been someone like America’s AOC and her very unwise 100% green energy in 10 years scheme. Changing demographics means more AOC’s and more turns at the economic disaster roulette wheel. In a democracy (or a representative republic), it’s easy for a lower IQ population to impose its disastrous ideas on the higher IQ former majority; hence, the election of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and the resultant economic dysfunction.
In the future, not only will China produce quality scientific research, but efficiencies conferred by its cultural and ethnic homogeneity may allow its corporations to out compete American companies to a much greater degree than mere scientific discovery might otherwise suggest. Additionally, China’s economy will be so large that its companies will be able to afford the massive R&D costs required for making ever more difficult discoveries. Their smaller global competition likely won’t be able to match spending, so China’s corporations could one day become far more dominant than you might anticipate. After all, it’s really about who can best exploit new discoveries and not just about who makes them first. Otherwise, ancient China would have ruled the world; they invented paper, gunpowder, and the compass.
Huawei was maybe 3% of the global smartphone market in Q4 of 2011 but it is set to pass both Samsung and Apple in marketshare within the next five years. You see a bit of this cultural/linguistic/ethnic homogeneity = efficiency phenomenon with the video game industry, specifically in regards to competition between Sony and the much larger, but more multicultural and less efficient Microsoft. Japan’s Sony corporation dominates Microsoft in sales just like their car companies dominate their American competition; GM was recently chased out of Europe because it couldn’t compete and none of these companies can sell anything in Japan.
Also, notice that the EU core area has a white European population probably on par with the white European-American population, but the US still has the greater share of scientific discovery. I would posit this has much to do with the efficiency conferred by language homogeneity in the United States (English) – among other things. China in the future will enjoy many of the same efficiencies the US has now, in terms of both language and culture. And this is why India isn’t as dynamic as some have predicted. Despite having a “smart fraction”, it is a low trust society deeply divided by color and class. Its leadership, imposed by the lower IQ fraction, is also somewhat inept. The same fate awaits the United States under current demographic trends.
*Has there been a single example of a global superpower in modern history that has lost its ethnic majority but still retained functional status and prosperity over the long term? Maybe Singapore (but they weren’t a superpower), although I admittedly know little about that country. Austria-Hungary? In any case, I would suspect the sample size here is far too small to make any definitive prediction about the future of scientific discovery and resultant economic success for the United States of America.
I 100% agree with this. At any given moment in time, China will be producing quality scientific research in the future.
As for the rest of your argument, sure, changing demographics can have all sorts of politic and social effects that interfere with scientific production.
But the argument was very specific – declining average IQs will lead to fewer people capable of high output. And in fact recent observed dysfunction is the result of fewer available capable people. When explained that this decline is the result of the addition of stupid people and not the subtraction of smart people, they could not understand it.
Ah, but the collapse or blatant standstill is probably still inevitable – unless the Chinese really figure out their gene editing good. In that case, 2 billion Africans won’t turn into geniuses, but by a helping hand their children certainly will
Immigrants from India with grad degrees in scientific and technical fields say they come here because of the unavailability of jobs. This is due to India’s entrenched cronyism—something that increasingly exists in the USA. Immigrants themselves often foster cronyism, hiring mostly other immigrants or members of their own family, but there is more homegrown cronyism in America all of the time.
A lot of America’s New Cronyism is traceable to dual-high-earner parents and notions of DNA dynasties.
History has seen this before in a different form. I am not sure that aristocratic thinking of this ilk aided technological & scientific progress. This article notes that Americans produced a large share of scientific innovation. I thought Murray located the premier high-IQ Generation in American history at kids born around 1850.
That was well after the dug in aristocracies of Old Europe, with their strategic power marriages and ideas of royal lineages, began to disintegrate, replaced by notions of individualism and….even….a Populist Movement…..in the USA.
Old Europe’s aristocracies did result in some stellar fine and applied art. A good argument could be made that an aristocratic Elite is necessary for producing the conditions for a quanity of top-grade artists / architects to flourish.
Artists never dominate discussions of the IQ Elite. I am pretty sure that a few of them belong up there with the scientific greats. If scientific progress stops accelerating, there might be more jobs for average people since computers will stop outdoing humans in performing work, but there will still be room for artistic greatness.
Where are the world’s Top Art Production Countries on that list? France should do pretty well, assuming they start protecting their cultural monuments.
Murray should write a book explaining why the disciplines of visual art and music have less IQ prestige. The theories behind both disciplines are complex and even scientific in many ways. A good example is this guy’s exhaustive, thorough-beyond-belief art blog.
It covers every art theory out there, connecting the science behind color vision, additive color mixing, subtractive color mixing and how scientically tested differences in color vision amongst individuals and at different times of day apply to specific palette choices and color theory rules.
I don’t care how high your IQ is or how scientific or math-related fields trump art in terms of intellectual horse power, this is complex stuff.
It is quite a feat to convey convincing light patterns in practice, starting from a blank canvas. The ability to relate things like the scientific research explaining how the full gamut of daylight is perceived by humans back to specific color choices, color theory models and materials requires quite a mind. It focuses on only one art medium, but most of what he describes is applicable across different mediums.
Some programmers might prefer a more ordered way of accessing the information, but there is a beauty behind the way it’s structured. This blog meanders, associatively, with one section growing out of another, kind of like creative thought, but it is still loaded with scientific art information.
http://www.handprint.com
http://www.handprint.com/HP/WCL/color4.html#constancy
http://www.handprint.com/HP/WCL/color6.html#imaginary
http://www.handprint.com/HP/WCL/color4.html#chromaadapt
http://www.handprint.com/HP/WCL/book3.html#luke
http://www.handprint.com/HP/WCL/color12.html
Switzerland obviously gets a huge boost because it’s the default location for a lot of pan-European projects. It has made a good profit out of being the one country that’s easily politically acceptable to both France and Germany. CERN alone is a big chunk of it and the scientist staff looks like a random sample from all over Europe with a couple of Asians and Americans.
Some countries get similar boosts of being the center of some bloc. A capable Belarusian or Ukrainian has little reason to try to get the Minsk lab up to Moscow’s standard when they can just move to Russia. Sweden is the default location for Scandinavian joint projects. All the English speaking countries get a boost from the language that all elite educated people in the world now speak.
Karlin probably explains this in the article.
But remember that location of the Noosphere (what is described as scientific output is only a part of it, as in the technology sector much of the work is also a kind of Noosphere) – is also quite responsive to salaries.
For example, in Switzerland, most of the scientific research will be by non-Swiss people. So Switzerland’s high score is a result of high salaries attracting higher human capital from other countries, and good funding for their projects, not the human capital level of native people of Switzerland.
Conversely, much of the best Russian/Soviet educated scientists are now working in America, Switzerland, Israel, Canada, Australia and Germany. So Russia’s low currently score is not perfectly reflecting the original human capital levels, as Russian origin human capital is powering the Noosphere in multiple other countries at the moment.
A 2016 Johns Hopkins study concluded that 250,000 people die every year as a result of medical negligence. My thought is that, while the smart fraction of medical science has produced remarkable advances, the general unraveling works against those advances being delivered. As a resident of dysfunctional California, which certainly possesses a smart fraction, I could cite many examples of the smart fraction being unable to deliver its benefits.
Great article, Anatoly!
BTW, do you have an educated guess as to how much higher Israel’s percentage on the chart in your article is going to be if the Holocaust would have never happened and if most of the Jews who were killed in the Holocaust in real life would have thus survived and moved to Israel in this scenario?
I don’t doubt it. However, in defense of Vox I will say that, given the nature of his obsession with group identity, that he would believe that averages are more important than absolutes for group cohesiveness. I think for his purposes, he is correct.
In any case, I remember seeing similar discussion about 10 years ago when HBD was becoming a thing on the ‘net. I forget the blog the discussion was on. But the discussion was about how HBD types divided into two separate groups when it came to ideal communities they would like to live in. One group was very much into the white-nationalist ethno-state. The second group (which I consider myself a part of) was into the Singapore-like city-state consisting of high functioning individuals of any race, but in reality would be mostly a mix of white and north-east Asians. This latter concept is clearly not attractive to much of the alt-right, let alone guys like Vox Day. If anything, Vox would argue that the Singapore concept I mentioned would not be feasible at all. This latter point is, of course, a bogosity given that trading city-states (think of Venice and Genoa) have endured for centuries, even through tumultuous periods of history.
What I do remember at the time is that most HBD types were more interested in crafting societies of high functioning individuals with less emphasis in ethnic identity in and of itself than the alt-right movement that emerged some years later.
I think its closer to 400,000 per year. But, yes,. John Hopkins is correct on this.
Regardless of that history, Israel is massively losing its human capital all the time today, because their best scientists, academics and students almost all leave Israel and immigrate to America and Canada.
While their cleverer young people, are brain draining to the technology industry and away from science (or they will study computer science, instead of mathematics, for example, and for computer science graduates Israel actually has a good job market).
There is very little money in Israeli science and universities, and not very many jobs, at least compared to the West (but it will be more comparable situation with Russia/Ukraine, and perhaps better job conditions in Israel than Russia overall).
It is incredibly annoying. By normal standards, I would be an elite given that I’m in the top 95% of income now but by being a single income household, it drops me top the top 33%. Most of my colleagues would basically do something like what I”m doing, but also then insert their wives into sinecure positions which then cannot be disputed since it serves the “diversity” purpose.
Its hard to see this as anything but blatantly parasitic and corrupt, and its common practice serves to inflate the prices of goods for everyone else. I imagine as heritage Americans become ever lower of a share of the elite, such practices will become ever more common.
It is nice to see the Teilhardian concept of the noosphere has not been lost. It should be used more often since it fits well with the intellectually interconnected world of today and the future.
If its in danger of being lost, its due to the fact that the dissident right has become more “feudal” over the past 10 years.
It seems like this kind of discussion you describe in your comment, is just attracting idealists, who live more in a dream world, and prefer debating about their mental pictures of imaginative societies, than anything relevant to what we can live in.
In this case, this style of discussion is useful (and has real content) only for discovering what your preferences are – and the debates between people, are just debates about preferences and personal tastes in relation to pictures in their mind.
The “insights” of the debate can be in revealing your preferences to yourself, or finding contradictions between your preferences. At the same time, it requires a lack of a realistic or logical type of people to have this kind of debate.
I wonder if personality tests were given to internet forum members. I believe most people who like this belong to “introvert intuitive” or “introvert feeling” typologies.
Your comments are certainly correct for the entire dissident right community, including the alt-right, since much of what they propose has no chance of ever being implement.
I don’t understand what the y axis on the final two graphs is supposed to represent.
(it’s also not clearly labeled in the first graph – one has to read quite a ways into the article to figure out that it is showing “percent of US output, with US = 100”)
Otherwise nice article.
The main question I would raise is the extent to which the value of contributions is the actual determinant of a high ranking, vs. proximity to the main networking methods that academics use. I mean, it’s no secret that Russia is rather geographically far away from where most of the activity happens, and it’s not so easy for them to meet with their colleagues in other countries.
GDP Per Capita explains the data pretty well w/o much of unnecessary gymnastics.
http://oi68.tinypic.com/10fnn8x.jpg
I took Karlin’s FC18 column and calculated FC18 per capita using google population data and plotted against google GDP per capita.
No need to invoke socialism to explain underperformance of smart Russians and Poles. They are just poor like Chinese and Brazilians so they are on the left hand side bottom of the curve. It is all about money.
Clearly si-Singapore and is-Israel and UK are over performers while USA is slight underperform for the money they got.
Denmark, Germany, Korea, Spain, Czechia are slightly above the curve while Japan, Austria, Australia, Netherlands and USA are below the curve.
China, Brazil and Russia are in one cluster.
It is all about money. Money talks and bullshit walks in particular the IQ bullshit.
“Despite the hype around Moore’s Law, there is mounting and disquieting evidence that technological growth is slowing down.”
yeah i think this is overwhelmingly accepted by everybody. definitely not a case of ‘there might be a problem’. moore’s law is totally over and has been over for a while. semiconductor fabricators are now dropping out of the nanometer race. every step downwards now, another big, billion dollar company drops out of the race. i think we’re down to just 3 competitors now, heading into the 7nm integrated circuit process. it’s cost intel probably 50 billion dollars to try to get from 10nm to 7nm, and they’re still not there. AMD is the leader currently.
computer generated GDP growth has absolutely, positively hit a wall. that free growth we got every year in the 90s is totally over. supercomputers are still improving. miniature computer devices are barely progressing though. this actually effects more than just cell phones and laptops – autonomous robots were depending on this stuff. it’s VERY, VERY much harder to get to Terminator level robots if your microprocessors just suddenly stop getting smaller and faster and more efficient every 3 years. autonomous cars have been effected a lot by this. aside from the issues with lidar. which is actually improving steadily.
“It takes more and more researchers to get similar rates of innovation. The price of chip fabs double with every new quadrupling in chip density (Rock’s Law). At the most fundamental level, problems tend to get harder – not easier – as one climbs up the technological ladder (see my article Apollo’s Ascent)”
the general idea behind apollo’s ascent is dead on the money, and it’s probably your best work. i’ve had similar thoughts. the apollo’s ascent concept completely explains stuff that michael woodley seems to ascribe to declining population intelligence. well, the evidence is overwhelming that this actually is happening. but the main issue is more that it just gets harder and harder to take the next step forward in tech. very similar to SHA-256 security employed by the bitcoin algorithms for instance. cracking each next level of security takes twice as much effort. you cracked level 26, now crack level 27, at twice the cost.
“Nobel Prizes in the sciences lag real world accomplishments by 20-30 years”
this isn’t accurate anymore. that used to be the rule. now the prize can be awarded for work less than 10 years ago. since they’ve run out of actual important stuff to award the prize to. the prize MUST be awarded every year, but something important doesn’t happen every year, in these much older, well explored, fully developed fields. so stuff that matters a lot less ends up getting awarded now. not much different than music. which is garbage now. but the grammy awards MUST be awarded every year.
i’ve posted about this several times. also. the important fields today, are outside the purview of the nobel board. so when important stuff does happen in computer science, robotics, AI, they have nothing to say about it.
also i believe the nobel board is compromised now. they definitely take into accout vibrancy issues. even the fields medal board is compromised now i suspect.
“Consequently, the prospects for radically increasing prospects for increasing world elite science production without machine superintelligence or genomic IQ augmentation seem rather limited.”
basic eugenic practices would do it. simply using known techniques will increase brainpower over generations. shrug. i’ll assume china is doing this. the anglosphere used to do this 100 years ago, but prefers government enforced dysgenics now instead.
“However, there’s also good news – the possibility of science production collapse due to demographic change may not be as serious as some HBD realists and/or immigration restrictionists tend to believe.”
the threat is not only from the vibrant population coming to predominate, reducing the amount of people who can even do the work. the threat is that the vibrant people will elect a vibrant government that is openly hostile to science and engineering work. which they absolutely are.
when the vibrant are in control of the US, which they will be soon, that scene of the africans harrassing NASA for wasting money on space when they should just be using that money to feed useless africans, so they can make more africans, will be the normal scene in america. not the exception.
GDP production will be diverted towards making more vibrants. vibrant governments will ruthlessly tax and legally restrain ice people companies, industry, and medical research.
ice people GPD production will be a resource to be allocated to increasing the vibrant’s numbers instead of increasing mankind’s tech levels. this is already how california and washington DC work. california needs 50 million mexicans? no problem. get to work ice people. solve the problems required to make that happen.
in short, the real threat is vibrant political capture of smart fraction output. this is what has happened in south africa. this is certainly the future of france and sweden. we saw what the obama adminstration did in the US. get ready for a century of that.
When I looked at H-index and IQ it seemed to me that GDPresearch spending explained the pattern better than IQ. From which I concluded that the science bottleneck was funding. Which makes sense if one looks at the atrocious conditions in academic research. Would be interesting whether GDPresearch spending also accounts better for the nature index than IQ. (This actually makes the NE-asian underperformance even more glaring because they spend a lot of money on research.)
Of course the gold standard for this kind of analysis would be looking at author ethnicity. It is really difficult to disambiguate the effects of money and talent. At some point the scientists poached by the US might go to China instead. And certainly Chinese talent has less and less reason to go to the US. If talent is the bottleneck, at some point it becomes a zero-sum game. If money is the bottleneck we have less to worry about.
I wrote several blogposts about the NE-asian underperformance:
https://wp.me/paAQij-P
https://wp.me/paAQij-R
https://wp.me/paAQij-2k
I wrote several blogposts on the NE-Asian underperformance. But it seems with the links my comment doesn’t make it through the spam filter.
Anyway, when I looked at the relationship of h-index and IQ, I found that GDP*research spending explained the h-index differences better than IQ. From which I concluded that science is bottlenecked by money not by talent. I wonder whether that is also true for the nature index.
I am not sure I buy into the “problems are getting harder” thing. New technologies also open up new fields of inquiry that are full of low hanging fruits. Deep Learning is such a case. Same for Genome sequencing. Crispr/CAS9. Etc. Especially in biology it seems to me that new technology makes a lot of problems trivial that used to be impossible.
I keep scratching my head over what to call the poz brain of the world. I think it is a very important concept, but not well articulated by “noosphere”, which has an academic and somewhat apolitical connotation, which doesn’t easily evoke evolutionary biology, and when adapted via using the term “mind virus”, seems hamfisted.
As I would define it, the “poz brain” is mostly a synergism of prog minds all over the world being connected by greater tech. I think you could perhaps almost physically map it, by making a connectome. If conservatives are a part of it, it is only in the sense of inhibitory neurons, which are inadequate.
The disease is not so much a mind virus or a meme, as it is akin to a root physiological dysfunction caused by overabundant excitatory connections. Something like epilepsy or schizophrenia. And this would be a major area of potential study – how to increase the inhibition/break some of the connections.
I have always liked the term “Matryoshka brain”(improper for my usage), so my test would be if the term measured up to that – and “poz brain” doesn’t. I feel like it requires some foreign word, possibly Russian, combining with the word “brain.”
China, Brazil and Russia are in one cluster. – These countries have similar GDP per capita so their FC18 per capita are similar. But if you are an IQists you would enter three numbers for IQ’s: Br=83, Ru=96 and Ch=104 (per https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php). which covers 21 IQ points span which is 140% of 1 SD. Yet these countries produce the same FC18 per capita as if IQ did not matter. There is not IQ signal in these data! Their GDP per capita are similar and this explains why their FC18 per capita are similar.
One can look at the graph above and conclude that UK, Israel and Singapore GDP are too low. They are underpaid for the output they produce while in USA, Australia and Netherlands they are overpaid. They are slacking off there.
See my comment #29.
Brazil cannot be compared to China or Russia. It never had communism; it is different demographically. The white people there are held hostage to an ever growing horde of browns. Now, they measure people’s lips with a ruler, and grade their skin with a colorimeter, to disburse egalitarian gibs. That is why they have to cut R & D – it is not an entitlement, like gibs are.
Brazil is the answer to the Fermi paradox.
I see that danger as well, but the good thing is that “making more vibrants” is very hard, at least when it comes to fertility rates. Outside of Africa, their reproduction is collapsing right now. Mexico has fallen below replacement level not long ago. So did American Hispanics. Arabs will do the same.
I am afraid you are a prime candidate for explaining the Fermi paradox.
I apologize – I did not realize the chair of BRICS had rotated to you.
It’s already happening. In Algeria and Morocco TFR hovers around 2.0 and keeps falling steadily.
It seems to be a longer-term problem:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/10/brazil-researchers-struggle-fend-deepening-budget-cuts
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/04/brazil-cuts-funding-scientists-grad-students-environment-suffers/
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01079-9
So presumably Bolsonaro’s first instinct was to increase science spending but was counteracted by his Chicago Boys educated adviser.
https://www.france24.com/en/20181012-guedes-bolsonaro-brazil-elections-populist
Rather than spending cuts, although that could pose a threat, a deeper problem that may arise is when universities and research facilities start being subjected to nepotist entryism and informal or even mandated quotas for idiot ethnicities.
No normalization for country’s military budgets?
Publication science is expensive. In the United States the biggest funds are Department of Defense.
Obviously, Brazil are not comparable to Russia from any historical perspective – they are not the former superpower, with formerly the world’s strongest army, achievements in infrastructure and engineering, and one of the world’s greatest history of achievements in science and culture.
But I’m pretty sure that politically they have aspects of a tropical Russia – including some similar problems of too many billionaires, large territories, difficult neighbors, natives’, extractive industries and falling fertility rates.
Russia FC18 per capita is more than twice that of Brazil, China’s FC18 per capita more than twice that of Russia. Not all that similar.
This is true but when you look at it on the full scale where USA=100% Brazil,Russia and China are on the low end somewhere between 3-10% bunched together and since their GDP per capita are similar they create a distinct cluster.
The fitted curve in the full range of 1% (India) to 270% (Switzerland) represents the data pretty well (see residuals).
What is interesting is that the curve is convex (2nd derivative is positive) even if Switzerland point was removed tit would be convex hough then the convexity would be smaller. What is the explanation for the increasing rates of return with the increased GDP per capita? Is it because of cumulative infrastructure effect or an increase related to the brain drain. Does Switzerland because it offers best salaries for PhD students and postdocs in the world can attract best students? Postdoc salaries in Switzerland are about 1.5 times higher than in Singapore and almost 2 times higher than in the US. The difference between these countries is that the high postdoc salaries in Switzerland are congruent with its GDP per capita while in the US the salaries of postdocs are somewhat below what GDP per capita would indicate which possibly explains why the US data point is under the curve. And Singapore is somewhere in-between though is is a strong over-performer. To answer these questions one would have to look at statistical data about postdocs and PhD students in these countries, where do they come from and so on.
Anyway, the problem when looked at in detail with a magnifying glass obviously is complex. I did the curve and the presentation as a function of GDP per capita to show that it is the best predictor we have for the data (keep it simple, stupid) that A. Karlin compiled while his fanciful rumination about IQ’s, which leads him to the invocation of the communist retardation, do not provide nowhere near as much explanatory power as the GDP per capita. Just look at the mess of his plots.
Really thanks for this article! I actually did similar calculations several weeks ago. They are just not that detailed. Germanic countries are really the best in terms of scientific progress.
You hit the nail on the head – it all is about the money, in more ways than one.
However, let’s start with the measure AK is using: The Nature Index. I don’t know what journals are included in the select 50, but the narrative indicates that they are selected based on impact. Non-scientists might not know what impact is: it is the number of citations divided by the number of papers published. From that it should be obvious that in science, like in Hollywood, there is no difference between famous and notorious. If 50 papers a year cite your work and say that it’s great, you get an impact of 50. If 50 papers a year cite you and say that your work is BS, you get an impact of 50. High-impact journals (in biology that’s Nature, Science, and Cell, and a few of their family members) mostly care about expected impact, so they go for sensational along with good science. Many for-profit companies have already figured that the fraction of total BS (things that don’t reproduce) published in high-impact journals is a lot greater than in modest-impact journals. So the measure used is seriously flawed.
Next, IQ. Even disregarding the issue of what exactly does IQ measure (it was devised to measure mental retardation, which is faithfully does), the IQ of a human being does not change much, yet that person’s scientific output does. Today I see a lot of Russian names among the authors of high quality scientific papers (I am talking about biology, which I know), but most of them work in the US, a few in Europe, and very few in Russia. The productivity is clearly defined by conditions, first and foremost by available funding. I can illustrate this using my own experience: in 11 years in the USSR I published fewer than 10 papers indexed in PubMed (the most reputable database for biomedical research), whereas in 28 years in the US I got >200 papers in PubMed. All papers produced in the USSR collectively were cited fewer than 200 times (with one methods development paper accounting for >100 of these citations), whereas the work produced in the US was cited >16,000 times. None of the Soviet period papers were in high-impact journals, whereas quite a few of those produced in the US were. So, the productivity and citations, unlike the IQ, can change by orders of magnitude, depending on the conditions, primarily funding. Out of 25+ people I had in my lab over the years only four were US-born, yet our papers all contribute to the US score. Funding has yet another effect. Most of high-class papers involve collaborations between several labs with different expertise. Thus, the density of good labs, which is determined by research funding, has a huge impact on the level of publications produced.
So, you are right, IQ has nothing to do with it. Funding availability determines how much talent you can import and how much high-level science this talent produces for the glory of the country supplying that funding. Indeed, money talks, and IQ walks.
“I see that danger as well, but the good thing is that “making more vibrants” is very hard, at least when it comes to fertility rates. Outside of Africa, their reproduction is collapsing right now. Mexico has fallen below replacement level not long ago. So did American Hispanics. Arabs will do the same.”
there’s 6 billion third worlders on earth, and half of them would love to live in the west.
there will be no problem flooding the US with 500 million useless third worlders when democrats permanently capture the white house and open the borders forever.
which is absolutely, positively the direction the united states is heading in. it’s moving directly towards the iceberg of vibrant political capture of european man’s smart fraction output. almost every democrat openly states as much now. half of the US government is already set up on this assumption. GDP output will be captured for vibrant biological purposes.
this is why i propose the idea that the most likely future for us is that we will become what i call
mules
there won’t be any conflict or resistance to this slow and steady process of europeans being outnumbered and replaced. instead, european men will simply be turned into mules, who will do all the work, pay all the taxes, and in return, they will be harassed for life by the vibrant hordes, ever expanding, who they provide for and keep alive.
they’re not ‘waking up’ in south africa at very high rates. so there’s probably no threshold beyond which lots of europeans will wake up fast enough to trigger some sort of resistance. enough of them will accept being turned into mules, that it will happen.
PS. There is a joke “even though it was published in Nature, it might still be true”.
This is the elephant in the room. How is the global economy going to continue to grow as the amount of working age non-blacks begin to gradually decline and due to this decline both production and consumption of many goods decline?
You conveniently forget the existence of rich black countries. Do I need to mention a few?
Barbados, Equatorial Guinea, Bahamas, Botswana, Gabon..
Maybe what you described is an Ice People phenomenon?
Here is the list of Journals:
http://feedback.natureindex.com/knowledgebase/articles/423523-what-journals-are-included-in-the-nature-index
I have some doubts about journals like Ecology Letters, Environmental Science and Technology , Geophysical Research Letters, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Nature Climate Change
And I agree that Nature as well as Science have a lot of hyped politically correct crap.
The list of journals is heavy on biology and medical sciences which may explain why UK is so high because this is the basket UK put a lot of their eggs in. Otoh, there, I think, might be less emphasis on material science and technology on the list which may results in lower rank of Japan and China. Then astrophysics just like nuclear physics (which really do not lead to new technologies and is open and not patentable) is very international and I wonder how do they attribute the papers among countries that have 100’s of coauthors from CERN or LIGO who are from many countries. Is it possible that high rank of Switzerland is because of CERN?
IQ adds significant further explanatory power (7.3%) when added to a GDPpc model. GDPpc does not when added to an IQ+socialism model (1.7%).
In the FC, each article gets one point. It is then divided between however many authors.
Moore’s Law is generally ended now. Samsung has announced they will do 3nm mode starting next year. A few other fabs such as TSMC may follow. Intel is struggling with getting out their 10nm devices, as well as GlobalFoundries. The 3nm mode is probably a hard limit because some components such as the gate are at the molecular level and cannot get any smaller. They, you have the cost of these new generations, which is driven mostly by the use of EUV (these are several hundred millions PER SYSTEM and 10 or more are needed in a single fab). There will continue to be improvements in computation, 3-D stacking and the like. But these improvements are linear rather than exponential. We’re also entering another “A.I. winter” with the multi-layer neuro nets (deep learning) showing up in rack mounted stuff but nothing else. I have yet to see a machine vision system come out based on deep learning neuro net. I think quantum computing is a load of hype. Semiconductors and computation seem to be approaching hard limits.
There are lots of potential developments in material science. Graphene, fullerines and related materials offer potential in certain applications.
Where I think the major frontier is in technological innovation is in bio-engineering and synthetic biology. I believe there are literally centuries of technological innovation available in this field, even if dysgenics is not an issue in the future. I think the A.I. singularity is a hype. But the bio-singularity is real, but will occur over a lot longer period of time.
I am not that concerned with the industrial malthusianism because there will always be a large enough smart fraction to do the work. Indeed, this smart fraction will increase more in actual magnitude (if not in relative numbers) in the industrial malthusian scenario. My dislike of industrial malthusianism is more aesthetic than anything else. A world with a 100 billion “people of Walmart” is a rather unpleasant thought to me.
At the highest levels, intellectual achievement has only been notable from European origin and Japanese nationalities in the modern world, while it was located only in India and the Mediterranean in the Ancient world – where the Indian mind overpassed even the Mediterranean in some ways.
Recent national patterns have continued at least, in prizes and medalists in the intellectual world (even if these don’t always signify real intellectual achievement, they might be at least a partial symptom of recent trends).
In maths prizes – for example, China has not achieved a single medallist, despite around 18% of the world population, so the recent trends have not changed:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fields_Medal#Fields_medalists
Abel Prize still not going to China…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abel_Prize
And the Wolf prize (one from Taiwan and one from China )
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_Prize_in_Mathematics
In Turing Award, some modest equality for India and China. Combined 2,7 billion Indians and Chinese, so far with only one prize each
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_Award
But China and India, have had a lower economic level.
Hopefully it will change in this century – if income level is an important factor for creating a climate for intellectual achievements, at least in the current historical configuration, and China will hopefully start to contribute more at the highest levels.
I would also have hope for India to revolutionize the intellectual world, but this will probably not be until later part of the 21st century if higher income level is such a necessary condition.
And if Africa is less promising than India and China – but perhaps if Africa eventually reaches a higher level of income, as well as institutional and political stability, it could surprise us.
I just heard about this Nature 82 index yesterday! I was at a meeting where I was chair with two deans and was telling them that we want more money, etc… and one said, “We care about the Nature 82 index, because we report to the government on it, and the proportion of articles at the university there is only 20%, so if you have more, that will be considered.”
Of course, I said “What is this Nature 82 index” and immediately looked it up on the phone and while they were talking about something else. It had all the big hitters in my field, but some big mistakes. It had some lower journals and didn’t have some that were better. I said “hey, they don’t have this best society journal there, but have the one below it! Where I actually have two papers after getting rejected from the big one. And they have this journal from a different society, where I was told to send my article after a rejection from a flagship but I refused and sent it to another journal where people in my field publish so that they would actually read my work!” Then everyone laughed at me…
I said “this list is garbage.” And immediately one of the deans said, “well, the person in charge of the list is coming here next week, maybe you’d like to tell him that? “. “Well, I wouldn’t use those exact words maybe…”. Last thing I need to do is talk to some old guy about his dubious list that he sells to government bean counters.
Anyways, this science post ignores the influence of rampant cheating that is increasing in science the more money it attracts, and entrenched science systems in countries breeding careerism and loss in innovation ability. I’ll post on that a bit later. There is still a lot that can be done in my field, but I prefer it not being so popular as bio-medicine for example, where it seems from the side that the cheaters are now producing third generation scientific offspring and vacuuming up funding.
This is a huge factor. The problem with the Nature Index is that it doesn’t account for native-born researchers as seperated from immigrants. China in particular would likely come across as much closer to the US if you only looked at native-born Americans.
However, even this may slowly come to a crawl as the US loses in global weight to China and starts amping up “yellow scares“, which in turn would turn off the tap of clever Chinese researchers.
India will likely send its best for much longer to the US than China since India’s development potential is far lower. As the US top scientific output is increasingly cosmopolitan, in the event of any serious crisis, many of its national security hawks are now realising that marshalling their intellectual elites for any major geopolitical conflict is becoming far harder due to conflicted loyalties.
In my view, the US’ scientific output should be added with that huge disclaimer if you want to use this index as a measure of “national strength” along with other indicators. It’s less of an issue in the UK due to the UK’s dimished status and even less in Switzerland, since most of its immigrants are other Europeans.
But of course the same truism is accurate there, a lot of its output is generated by clever non-Swiss immigrants and a bad measure of inherent innovation of its native peoples the way it is in, say, most of East Asia due to much lower fractions of immigrant – especially of non-East Asian stock – researchers.
Thank you for this small bit of sanity from an actual scientist in this shitshow of a thread.
If I get some time I will try to address it later doing 2-parameter fit.
In the mean time FYI the fit FC18pC=FIT(GDPpC) in the figure in comment #29 explains 87.4% of variance in the FC18pC data. So I will try to see if adding IQ to the model could explain more and how much.
In other words, like a university (except possibly with even more pronounced flaws). I think we can use our experiences with those to project how High-Functiontopia will turn out.
To what extent is GDP per capita explained by IQ?
I think it has more to do with the US being a much larger single market. The EU is still a patchwork of rules and exceptions and loopholes. Scale matters when building big stuff, including big companies. That’s why huge tech companies can only realistically come from very large countries. You may have your one-off Samsung, but that company generates something like a third of Korea’s GDP. It can’t replicate that again.
OTOH, US tech companies seem to be doing better than Chinese ones. Outside of Huawei, I don’t see any Chinese company that can match Google, Microsoft etc. Baidu, Alibaba et al are all too domestic-focused as of yet. Their impact outside of China is extremely limited.
For long-term progress, CMOS has to be replaced by something better. I assume this is a 15-20 year process at a minimum, because there is currently no viable replacement on the horizon; the fancy materials being studied will need about 15 years to go into mass production once someone decides to go for it.
Computer architects will provide a one-time boost by specializing processors further. Ongoing. This won’t drive 2x performance every 18 months though.
From an engineering standpoint, memory and storage is always becoming more of a performance bottleneck. Some recent progress here actually, e.g., Intel Optane becoming commercially available.
Also, vibrant research boss will divert funds to more congenial purposes as well as support a, shall we say ‘confused’, agenda.
It’s no question that IQ and GDP is associated with science output. The only question is what the arrow of causality here is. Does IQ cause GDP and also science production? Or does economic development -> high IQ -> high science production? It’s a fact though, that you need a lot of money to carry out modern research.
A good example is north korea – south korean science output is like US levels, while north korean output is african tier. North Korea before communism were even more developed than South Korea.
And this ‘socialist legacy’ stuff seems a bit iffy to me. Sure, communism will depress science output. But that’s not the only thing that’s going to depress science output. Many african countries in the 20th century had things far worse than socialist governments. Hey, atleast the socialists were big on widespread literacy and education. Not the case for cannibal warlords believing in voodoo that hold top positions in government and run around sacrificing humans to their gods. That probably has even a bigger effect than communism.
Well, for one we do know that environment has SOME effect on scientific achievement. The so amazing scientific achievement of the jews was basically nill before 18th century, and only picked up by 19th/20th century. Scientific achievement was far lower in 16th century England than today. Why? Well i could think one reason – it’s that all the smart people didn’t do science – they did religion and philosophy instead. Infact, that’s what smart people did before science – theology. I don’t think modern people are aware just HOW MUCH brainpower went into religious matters, the greatest physicists and mathematicians of the old days took religion&theology just as seriously (until the 19th century, and only really the 20th century). One could say that that’s what smart people still do in certain countries (muslim countries).
Regarding Africans, african immigrants to the UK and the US perform among the best , on average. Now you might say, selective migration! An example – “According to the United Census Bureau, 4 percent of Nigerians hold the Ph.D. degree compared to 1% of the general US population. 17% of Nigerians hold a master’s degree and a whopping 37% have a bachelor’s degree.”.
One has to just know that the percentage of nigerians who had PHDs in 1800 wasn’t 4%, 1%, 0,5%, it wasn’t even 0,01%. It was exactly 0 – none made it. So clearly environment matters up to some point. Many african countries still have not achieved universal literacy, which was achieved during the 19th century in Europe (Coincidentally, that’s when there was a massive explosion in science output in Europe..)
I think the A.I. winter will last a long time. The deep neuronets that are the technology underlying the current A.I. craze were actually invented in 1986. They were shelved after a year or two of discussion simply because the computing power to use them did not exist at the time. It was only around ’12 or ’13 that the computing power became sufficient that people started pursuing it. For the A.I. winter to end would require that a similar breakthrough be developed now that could be implemented in some kind of nanotechnology during the 2040’s.
Currently there’s a shitshow about Orbán wanting to nationalize the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. I don’t know enough about the issue to make an informed opinion, but I tend to think it’s just some Fidesz idiot noticing there’s a lot of money (like, a few hundreds of millions of dollars) to be stolen, and decided to proceed. On the other side, it’s perhaps useless academics drawing upper middle class salaries without producing much actual science, and now protecting their turf from anyone, be it Orbán or the taxpayers. It’s also probably the case that a lot of scientists are leftists. Still, overall I tend to think they have a stronger case than Orbán.
Orbán has a habit of using his hobby, soccer, to pay his cronies. Now if he uses his hobby for this, then it’s very likely that his goal here in science, which he doesn’t even care for, is the same or worse.
Now some don’t think science is of paramount importance for Hungary: we’re members of NATO and the EU, so we could theoretically simply buy or use results from others cheaper, while we don’t have much of an independent industry, and we aren’t even very developed, so we’ll mostly just use foreign technologies or the results of foreign research anyway.
However, I have issues with this reasoning. One big advantage of having scientists in the country is that they are smart. Keeping them in the country is eugenic. Instead, they are now leaving in droves. I also wouldn’t dismiss the idea that strong basic research could create an atmosphere of innovation and perhaps lead to stronger indigenous industries. I also think that these people, being smart and all that, are probably politically more influential than numbers alone would indicate. So it’s useful to bribe these (relatively cheap) smart people into supporting the government. (Currently the opposite is happening.) I don’t think it’s very stable to have a very liberal traitor smart fraction and a nationalistic government. Something has got to give, and given the current trajectory of the West, I don’t think it’s going to be the shitlib smart fraction. They might leave the country, of course, but that will result in an economic and cultural decline.
This really depends on what “leftist” means. STEM folks are likely to be irreligious. If that’s what “leftist” means then of course STEM folks tend to be leftist. On the other hand on economic issues and racial issues STEM folks don’t exactly agree with commies or SJWs.
There’s some truth to it, but if you mean that they (or at least the majority of them) secretly believe that whites are genetically smarter than blacks or that they strongly oppose mass immigration, then that’s simply a myth. Though many in the alt-right seem to believe it.
What you and utu are saying is very convincing.
However, quality scientific research can only be done, by definition, by a part of the high-IQ population of each country. So, if we had a good metric to measure the scientific output carried out by natives of each country, we would by necessity find a correlation between this output and the amount of high IQ people that each nation produces (and is capable of educating to an adequate level). This doesn’t even sound to me like a hypothesis that needs to be tested.
Granted, economic development will influence the amount of people that a country can raise to scientific research standards. But, having lived in Latin America for quite a few years, I have little doubt that HBD is real and determinant. However, some of James Thompson’s latest pieces lead me to think that we don’t really know what the average IQ of each country is or even if current ways of measuring IQ are very adequate.
Aside from IQ, East Asians should be doing even much better in science and innovation because they have tons of money to burn from running huge trade surpluses, much more than Ivy League and Oxbridge endowments.
Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute (total assets) figures;
China Investment Corporation – $941 billion.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority Investment Portfolio – $509 billion.
SAFE Investment Company (China) $440 billion.
GIC Private Limited (Singapore) $390 billion.
Temasek Holdings (Singapore) $375 billion.
National Council for Social Security Fund (China) – $341 billion.
Korea Investment Corporation (KIC) – $134 billion.
It depends how we use the word “IQ”.
If you mean by “IQ” academic talent? Or if you mean by “IQ”, what is measured in “IQ tests”?
“IQ tests” are just simple word games, or rotating some different shape.
The results of these tests might correlate to some extent with peoples’ academic talent, and they might be filtering away people with unhealthy brains which cannot concentrate on a task.
But the only interesting thing is academic talent and what extent this is inherited (obviously looking at “IQ tests” is a bit of a distraction in all this, as you can use the same time to look at actual academic achievements of different people or countries).
What are peoples’ and countries’ academic talent , and what extent this can be genetically determined (controlling for economic level) is a real question. There are certainly differences between nationalities in their quantity of people with academic talent, which will not be simply a result of their economic level.
What is the “IQ” (if it refers to test score results) does not seem like a real question.
Compare it to an Elo rating for example. An Elo rating is measuring how good people are at chess. While “IQ test” is measuring how good people are at matching together pictures of shapes.
If you can relate these kind of “IQ tests” (which remind me of books we had at children’s parties when we were 6 years old) to how good or bad we were in our studies at university?
https://i.imgur.com/Ij0CJKT.png?1
Do you have to keep doing the Jewish deconstructionist bit?
https://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/04/15/the-validity-of-iq/
‘What is the average height does not seem like a real question’
By which I mean, an Elo rating is measuring what we actually want to know – peoples’ chess ability.
On the other hand, an “IQ test” is measuring “something” (which should not be reified, as it has no independent existence outside of the particular word games and shape rotating), which people argue has a correlation with what we are actually interested in (academic ability).
Elo rating measures the ability directly (the rating is caused by the chess ability), while IQ is an unrelated test score which supposedly correlates with the actual ability.
Therefore, when you find a person with a “high IQ test score result”, but who has not produced any academic work. This is just data point arguing that the “IQ test score result” is not related to what we actually want to measure in this case.
It doesn’t mean the person has “a high IQ” like you can have “high blood pressure” – because IQ has no existence outside of the particular test, and the test score is only interesting to the extent it might have correlated with their academics.
Your response is like a stereotypical demonstration of “low IQ”.
Height exists in the real world. “IQ” only exists as an artifact of administering the test.
I read this last night, laughing out loud, thinking about all of the overlaps with US society. The Poopster Attitude is not just a feature of the Millennial Generation, although it is magnified due to their bigness as a generation and due to the heightened trendiness of politics. Politics was not a fashionable subject among the apolitical Eighties youths in the USA, but the Poopster cultural shift goes way back.
This is why Obama’s prom pics show him enjoying the company of a bunch of popular white kids, including his date. Obama’s best friends in the late Seventies / early Eighties were white, belying the fake angst of his and his worshipful followers’ race-baiting Wokeness decades later.
Like this article points out, cultural things evolve more slowly than short-term, fevered political shifts. Take these Woke Millennials, falling all over themselves to prove their PC creds. As he points out, such efforts are comformist impulses at this point in history, not the risky activities of an intellectual vanguard, challenging crusty social norms.
I wonder if the Soviet Poopsterism, the bowing down to every lowly employee of the state, has something to do with the way the original, truly revolutionary Soviet intellectual vanguard sought to glorify common workers and government work.
Whereas in the USA, the Woke Millennial Poopsters grovel before every racial and ethnic minority, trying to prove their association with the glory days of the civil rights movement, which occurred long before they were born.
Since I have been a leftist, I really have no right to critique them. I have done the same thing. And I’m an Xer, closer in age to Obama’s late Boomers than the Millennials.
Given the post-civil-rights-era shift in social mores, enabling a Black future POTUS to hang out with the most popular white kids in high school close to a decade before my equally non-racist generation hit the secondary schools, its all just posturing, this Poopsterism. It’s an attempt to get ahead by associating yourself with ideas regarded as Elite, rather than actually producing anything of merit.
It’s a social artifice.
.
To explain a bit more.
Elo rating is a result of peoples’ chess ability.
But “IQ” is a description of peoples’ ability to choose desired answer in the word games and shape puzzles in a certain test, which has little relation to academic thinking, but which is interesting only to the extent it might be a collateral effect of whatever variables are determining differences in academic thinking.
Elo rating is interesting to us, because it is a result of chess ability, and the score is created by chess playing.
On the other hand, “IQ” is interesting only to the extent we propose that the scores correlate with academic ability (which would result in academic achievement).
This correlate has neither independent existence, but it might be interesting to the extent it is correlating to the academic achievement or potential of the person. In other words, we are assuming difference in IQ test scores is the useless collateral effect of whatever the variables which are actually causing that academic ability.
In the case of man who has a high “IQ test score”, but low academic achievements.
What such an example shows is only that we found a datapoint which weakens the correlation. The existence of the example, just tells us that test which was administered, is a little bit more useless than if the datapoint does not exist.
This is a way to say it’s a tool which is less able to eliminate noise in this case, not that there exists anything like a separate IQ of that person that has been hampered by other factors (lack of creativity, etc).
However, people have a tendency to reify anything that is designated by a noun. And they might say “He failed as an academic because, although he has a high IQ, he wasn’t original enough ,etc.” Of course, the “high IQ” is just a way to say that the test has just found noise and no signal in this case.
Sure. However things change over time. Secular STEM folks do not benefit from PC which is often from people with very different psychological traits. People who truly value science and truth should be Social Darwinists.
Could you give an example?
You cannot contribute much to scientific advancement if your intelligence is not well above the average. So the amount of valuable scientific research that a country will be able to produce is limited by the amount of people it has with well above-average intelligence.
IQ tests try to measure innate intelligence. They are not a perfect tool, as shown by some inter-country comparisons (the idea that the average intelligence in certain countries is below retardation levels, as suggested in one of Thomson’s latest posts, is not very serious in my view, although I am a witness that it is indeed noticeably lower than in Europe). But when it comes to academic achievement in developed countries, these tests do show high predictive power. That is the consensus in psychometrics, as far as I’m aware, and indeed, whenever a renowned physicist’s IQ has been measured it was invariably very high. So it seems very reasonable to say that scientific research must be expected to be carried out by the high IQ fraction of each country.
Inductive reasoning – no basis for actual work (=real world engineering).
No. It would be more like Singapore, which is the most successful city-state (nation) in the world right now.
Yes as long as it is not a democracy and that there are no blacks, Australoids or mestizos.
Universities could work too if they weren’t present.
“Explaining East Asian economic and innovation underperformance relative to their IQs is a topic for other posts”
The western mind is better at abstract thinking?….abstract transfer and synthesis. Taking a concept from one application domain and applying it to another. Taking some number of concepts and puzzle fitting them into a construct that is greater than the sum of it’s parts.
New tangible products require organizational entities. There might be a requisite IQ level for workers to acquire the bottom up and top down skill sets needed to perform the transformative processes.
One problem with quantum computing is that it has to be done within a degree of absolute zero. This makes any practical device wildly improbable even if the technical hurtles to develop the process itself can be over come.
Very well put. IQ test score may have a utilitarian value only if the correlations with actual activities, achievements and accomplishments are found. The correlations often are hyped and boosted with various correction procedures (sometimes justifies and sometimes not). A closer scrutiny of results may show that the correlations are not as high as the IQists believe. IQ test scores are not as stable as it is believed and not as repeatable as it is believed. And the correlations vary between societies or social groups.
The IQists from the very beginning wanted to put a scientific and theoretical foundations so they postulated a g-factor (Spearman) which was in the spirit of reductionism and physics envy of the late 19 century and early 20 century. This g is just a construct that is mathematically inevitable because of mathematical necessity as it is defined, yet it is not unique nor invariant because it depends on the battery of tests that are used. This fact is rarely mentions or emphasized. So this theoretical foundation is hollow, nevertheless it gives the believers a sense that their beliefs have some tangible solidity akin to hard science concepts.
The IQists are given away by their language, i.e, how they use the acronym IQ or the g symbol in phrases that almost always reify the concept meaning that it is a thing , that it exists, that it is immutable and so on. It is no longer a test score of one of many not always mutually congruent tests but a property associated with a person which defines that person so just as well it could be put in ID document, passport or in a tattoo. For IQists this IQ test score transmutes and reifies into some entity that they call IQ and it has for them a separate ontological existence. But one does not have IQ just like Usain Bolt does not have 9.58 sec on 100m. 9.58 sec is his score he once achieved.
Many dot Indian male managers (and quite a few Chinese ones) on H1B have their H4EAD wives sit around and do stuff like “manual testing”, a job which could have easily gone to an entry level American undergrad. Yet the level of greed they display is phenomenal. If one removes the Jewish influence from the west, the average westerner, more so an average westerner of north west European stock is no where as money minded or capitalist as south and east Asians.
In Asia [I do not consider west Asia or south Asia as Asia proper btw], only the SEA peoples are a bit more primitive and less driven [read less money minded-ness]. Which is why the Chinese have totally dominated the SEA region despite being a minority and are now being increasingly challenged by the dot Indians there as well [singapore is a prime example of the ensuing friction between the Indians and the Chinese as Chinese influence wanes while the Indian influence rises]
I think the future of the world would be a Jew dominated world order with the dot Indians and the Chinese the managers and the technocrats respectively while most of the other races would be reduced different levels of serfdom irrespective of where they live
India’s average IQ is estimated to be 82. It means that there is no way there can be 100 million high IQ people in India, and one look into the country shows that it is the case. If India had 100 million high IQ people it would be the best country to live. Sure there are some very high IQ Indians, but that is expected given 1.34 billion population. This is the case if you accept the premise of IQ measurements.
Elaborate please.
Ashkenazi intelligence thing is not well established (well, not in the terms they fantasize), first numbers fluctuate a lot, second same studies find their spatial IQ much lower while verbal IQ is much higher. Personally, I don’t think Ashkenazi Jews are any smarter than say Germans or any population around them in Europe. In the past, most of the success was related to hard work and study in intellectual fields, and reason for effort in fields like law, medicine and so on is that these skills are transportable. Meaning, if you get kicked out, you won’t starve in exile. Ron Unz showed that success ratio of Jewish kids is much lower compared to the Jewish students in earlier generations (but Harvard percentage is much higher). This again can be explained by the fact that their families are more affluent compared to immigrant ancestors and they grow up without discrimination in modern America.
Fear of life, survival concerns, a sense of family are all great motivators. It is also what often push Chinese or Korean students to study for ridiculously long hours nowadays, which naturally brings them academic success. However, academic success still would not result in the dominant position Jews have established in the US. They have very high representation in Ivy league schools, especially relative to population and scores. Dominate or have very high representation in media, business, arts, intellectual life, and increasingly politics. This is mostly because of tribalism. Jews are not special in their tribalism of course, however, they have been here longer than other tribalist people, and they also have advantages Chinese or Indians don’t have, such as easily passing as white or being considered familiar (Judaism is the precursor to the other nonsense called Christianity after all).
This is not to deny the success of Jews, they do have the necessary intelligence, and had conditions and cultural factors (emphasis on study) to become successful. However, massive overrepresentation is totally another issue. If it was based on IQ, shouldn’t we have much more prominent Asians in all walks of life? Unz.com itself has a writer named Linh Dinh who is no less talented than any Jewish writer in The Atlantic or NYT, what is he up to? Oh right, he is working at a recycling plant in Vietnam. Wonder why talent, intelligence and hard work didn’t bring him a prominent position in the US?
There was never a summer, to begin with. AI was and is terrible at anything that requires actual intelligence. All the hype is around data and a set of techniques to master certain functions related to that partial set of data. There will simply never be a true AI, a human-made replica of the human mind.
Yes I accept the premise of national IQ.
Indian IQ of 82 is irrational. Indian people in places like Suriname,South Africa,Mauritius are 90%+ low caste descendants of indentured labourers shipped during the British era..They score in the early 90s so therefore the genetic IQ ceiling of the average Indian population must be atleast in the early 90s and any deficit explained by high malnourishment/ disease burden.
Upper caste Hindus(Including Brahmins) don’t suffer from malnourishment and a very crude proxy for the smart fraction IQ of this pool could be the GRE/GMAT scores which compare respectably with European and East Asian peoples,which explains why India has the most advanced Industrial base outside the West, Russia and East Asia you know space program,can build aircraft carriers,nuclear submarines,ICBMs, supercomputers etc..
Spot on. The set of morals Euros, Middle Easterners, and Americans have is basically the same and has the same roots as well. The set of morals Chinese and Indians have is, well, doesn’t exist. Their whole culture and society are based around their family. They don’t care if they feed you poison to make an extra buck, let alone worry about displacing a new graduate. When I mention morality Chinese simply don’t have any clue, to their credit, they seem to appreciate the ideas when presented and understand potential benefits (that when individuals have morals the whole society, including themselves benefits). As far as Indians are concerned, no hope, all they care is money and taking as much as possible. Worse yet, contrary to the Chinese, they tend to think they have a superior religion. So they can’t even be taught Western morality, which is based on religious ideas.
I don’t know much about IQ or how dependable it is. I am pretty sure hard work has more influence on success than intelligence as well. That said, what is so unbelievable about 82 IQ, it puts India in same rankings around Madagascar and Egypt. As far as social indicators are concerned (GDP, health, environment, HDI, safety) India does not appear any better than many Subsaharan Africa countries. I did say there are very smart Indians, but it is expected given 1.34 billion population, even if 0.1% of people were really high IQ that would mean 1.34 million people, which would be more than enough to build ICBMs or space programs. Yet at the same time, India is having a toilet issue, something that most people solved thousands of years ago. What is the explanation for that?
OT: Interesting observation about Magyars
I am reading Stoddard’s book.
Most people did not solve it thousands of years ago in fact regular bathing is a relatively new at best 200 year old development for most westerners..which somewhat explains the massive death rate during the black death..Finns with their sauna tradition were relatively much less affected as was most of the east including India which had a regular bathing tradition from the bronze age..
India is in course to solving the problem within the next 10 years….
Alright, look I am not trying to give you a hard time. All I am saying is that there is no way India has 100 million high IQ people. It also depends on one’s definition. I don’t think someone who is 1std dev above means is high IQ, I don’t believe 16% population is high IQ. I would start it around 2std dev. If we take the world’s average IQ is 100 and std dev is 15, that would mean there are about 150.000.000 high IQ people. Surely 2/3 of that cannot be in India. Toilet thing was not an actual question; I will not debate about the history of sewage systems. I was merely pointing out the conflict between high IQ suggestion and the problems India faces. It is also getting tiring to hear about Brahmin intelligence nonsense, I don’t know who started this malarkey. I am also pretty sure the caste system is forcing many geniuses into a life of misery just because they were born in the wrong family. I don’t think it is a constructive step to blame everything on other billion people in your country instead of utilizing the best among them.
You do realise that Singapore’s fertility rate is less than half replacement level. You think that’s a healthy society? It’s a society that is little more than a death cult.
Your utopia of high functioning individuals would be another death cult.
Will global warming melt the ice people?
I don’t understand this far-right obsession with IQ. It’s the White equivalent of “muh dick”. What does muh IQ even matter if you’re so morally slack and decadent as to be repeatededly hijacked and exploited by jews? The ability to science around with muh IQ is contemptible if it can’t even meet your most basic need of survival. Yeah, you can genetically engineer a canola plant to produce high octane gas? Cool story bro, Tyrone’s still fucking your daughter and your son just changed his name to Abdullah Hammed Nazir. Muh Western civilization is just coca cola, twinkies, drive thrus and shitty coffee. Congratulations White man, you’re still fucked, and navel gazing muh IQ isn’t exactly helping you.
Like the awkward nice guy lead violinist thinking his latest performance will definitely make his crush wanna fuck him. It’s pathetic and it reeks of subjunctive resentment: “Even though I’m not on top, I should be! Take that, Tyrone!”
Wow, turns out a spatter of geniuses isn’t enough to compensate your defective communal instincts. But it’s Ok, Charles Murray has some nice bedtime stories for ypu losertarians.
Hitler once said in Table Talks that you can tell more about a people from their food than their language. Very interesting. When I go to a Mexican BBQ or a Japanese buffet, the people cut up the steaks into strips and put them in the centre of the table to share. At a White BBQ everyone just takes their own steak, away on their own special little individual plate, and it’s all “I got mine!”.
That suburbian picket fence individualism…
That’s your biggest defect right there as a race.
Good luck beating a gang of virile Chechens, scheming Hindus, or highly networked jews with that cowboy lone wolf mythology
Nope. We will take care of it.
Now you are basically trying to destroy the only existing individualistic civilization on this planet while I’m working hard to create another one. Sigh. You don’t even understand the value of Germanic civilization which is why you trash it.
Have you seen the table above? The scientific output per capita of NE Asian countries is clearly within the white range. However we are still doing poorly compared to Germanic peoples and Ashkenazis. No matter whether you are white I have no idea why you don’t appreciate such creativity and scientific progress… Of course I want to have it, not to see it destroyed.
But surly that is morality?
Western morality has become increasingly about putting the interests of complete strangers ahead of one’s own family. That seems to me to be less healthy than the Chinese approach.
You probably don’t want to get into non-Hajnali amoral familism. Trust me on that one. Of course Western SJ cuckism also suck a lot. Amoral familism is not a nice alternative. The West used to have a system much better than both. Please return to it.
I’m White, Anglo. And I grew up in Germany due to my father’s job. So you can take it from me that I fully appreciate German culture and community. It really is something special. Even if Germans were as dumb as rocks, their culture would still be special to me. It’s the communal aspect that makes it special. Something Anglos critically lack. Don’t conflate Anglos and Germans together. I know both tribes of people very well, and they are very different from each other. I’d even go as far to say that a German has more in common with a Russian than a Hobbesian avaricious Anglo.
Anyway, creativity and “progress” are all in vain unless it’s directed inward to God and culture. Something Anglos, Westerners, and their Jewish masters have a very difficult time comprehending.
In 1900 Egypt had only 6 million people. This year Egypt’s population reached 101 million. In 1900 Pakistan had about 10 million, today it is 205 million. Just how is “below replacement level” going to change anything? If every woman in Pakistan has only 1 child, the population will still increase by additional tens of millions in just a few years. This means hundreds of millions more Muslims, n another billion Africans.
There is only one solution: mules must learn to eat vibrants. I wonder how they taste with ketchup?
Maybe not the best example
I would also put myself in the second group – but with the very important proviso that the high functioning individuals of any race recognize that political power (citizenship) rests with the historic founding population. High (and low) functioning individuals of any race are actually there as respected long term guests while still having the option to marry (if they want), and integrate and become part of the historic founding population – thereby acquiring political rights.
IMO the West is failing to get this point straight. They can’t bring themselves to say that Sweden belongs to Swedes or that France belongs to the French.
The idea that everywhere belongs to everybody is either a stupid SJW fantasy or a deliberate Cultural Marxist wrecking policy (or a combination of both).
The Long Day is coming.
Most of the biomedical publications are bullshit , medical bubble .
But Chechens ARE white. Didn’t you read Anatolys piece on “white sharia” :). And haven’t you seen Kadryov?? If he doesn’t look caucasian then i wonder who does
Then you have the East european and baltic whites
This shows whites are capable of communal thinking. It’s just that whites in the west have been marinating under (((cultural Marxism))) from quite some time and the “flavor” seems to have seeped down to the bone. And all this has been deliberate
Yeah, but it’s already an achievement to be able to build an SSBN, even if maintenance is sub-standard.
That is true. But I also think that Brazil could accomplish the same things if it needed to or some of the Middle Eastern countries if they were as large (even Iran has designed and produced several medium and short range missiles and submarines), so I don’t know how much this says about the competence of Indians relative to other population groups. It is an interesting question though how much a low general level of intelligence (and conscientiousness) contributes to these sorts of costs of stupidity.
My grandfather was in the navy in the Second World War and he has told me before that it would take weeks for the Indian shipyards to repair something that the Chinese workers in Singapore to do in days.
So ? The submarine was repaired and is presently on patrol. No lives were lost.
There have been much more serious accidents involving N submarines in P5 navies..USS Thresher, kursk etc..
Also I am not aware of any country outside the West,Russia and East Asia remotely capable of designing an SSBN with all critical components nuclear reactor,combat management system etc built in house which was my original point.
It was never my assertion that this sub is comparable to the Vanguard or Ohio class SSBN.
Real intelligence ok and i mean real real intelligence is measured differently to what most people understand.It is this
The speed of the subconscious mind in ratio to conscious mind.An answer to a question before you can think of it,an instantaneous reaction.The quicker the subconscious mind the more intelligent the mind.
For example if it takes 1 second for the sub conscious to arrive at an answer and 10 seconds for the conscious to arrive at an answer then ratio is 1:10.the greater the ratio the less “intelligent”.
It could be an intentional act of non cooperation(acting a lot dumber than someone actually is not unknown in these parts of the world). The Royal Indian Navy mutinied in the 1940s and Indians unlike Han Chinese did not see Japanese as the invading enemy. Quite the contrary.
The B737 MAX or the Challenger tragedies read like you would imagine Russian or third world incompetence.
Though it’s hard to deny that Americans and Western Europeans are still more competent, despite many episodes of incompetence.
Is there ANY fundamental innovation in the last thousand years which White men did not create? Name it.
Iran (along with Turkey) is one of the most functional Middle Eastern countries already. I can imagine it being as functional as India, or more so.
The best Arab countries (maybe Egypt? Algeria?), if scaled up, might be capable of something, but I doubt they’d be on Indian levels, because I’d think their smart fractions are smaller. But I’m not very confident, this being based on subjective impressions, rather than anything more thorough or scientific.
That is an interesting thesis.
My impression was that the Indian army was quite loyal (although that is unsurprising since it was made up of volunteers) and I did not realise that the navy was much less so.
India has the dubious distinction of hosting the largest number of malnourished children in the world (42% of the worlds total if my memory serves me right). These children will not grow up to be Ramanujan or Satya Nadella.
The country needs to get basic human needs met before trumpeting its destiny as the next superpower.
But it also means that there’s a lot of potential, since there are still lots of low-hanging fruits left.
It’s not comparable here though.
We are interested in Bolt, because he run (or had run) fast, and his record is a result of that. In this case, Bolt’s time, is comparable to Elmo rating of chess players we admire (it’s a direct result of the what we are interested in – speed, chess playing, etc).
However, “IQ test scores” are interesting to an extent we see them as something which correlate with the person’s academics (while at the same time not being a product of the latter, which would introduce circularity),
It’s interesting only to the extent we would assume that differences in results in “Raven’s Matrices”, would be a collateral effect of the common cause which also explains people’s academic level.
Sometimes such collateral effects can be useful indicators (for example, PSA levels in blood although some kind of collateral effect – I’m not an expert on how this works – , seems a useful indicator for prostate cancer).
The conceptual incoherence and lack of understanding, is when you hear comments like “He failed as an academic because, although he has a high IQ score, he wasn’t original enough ,etc.” Of course, the “high IQ score” is just a way to say that the test was noise and not signal in this particular case.
Algebra and the rub-n-tug.
I meant to post something on how measuring science output with these journals is seriously flawed because it’s become a very careerist proposition. The amount of mediocre grant writing you have to do, and the increasingly common cases of cheating suffocate innovation. It’s not a case of the problems just getting harder.
Take a look at one of the latest posts at the following blog for example. These people are prominent scientists who published in these precious Nature 82 journals, but their whole career and research is based on lies or dressing up wrong results as significant. That has serious effects downstream when others try to use the work to create a drug, or when their trainees start working in industry, because even if they are honest people, they feel discouraged by their experience.
This means in countries where the proportion of Nature 82 journals is low, and where they don’t reward you on publishing there and the salaries are not that high so that a career in science is not worth faking for, you can have something real happening actually.
https://forbetterscience.com/2019/05/08/fraud-simple/
“Even in their official press release photos, the cancer research professors Paul B Fisher, Paul Dent and Steven Grant look like the characters of a Joel and Ethan Coen crime movie, unfortunately never filmed. Together these Virginian fortune seekers seem to have cooked up a scheme of getting rich by publishing fake science, which because of our utterly rotten and corrupted scholarly publishing and academic evaluation system worked so far like a charm. If trouble came, like an ORI investigation which recommended 11 retractions in 2015, one of the minor accomplices ended up in the metaphorical wood chipper, while the trio got to keep their coffers with funding money. And anyway, so far only 5 papers of who knows how many fake ones were retracted, while new research grants keep rolling in.”
Perhaps because post the mutiny the British Indian army was by design made mutiny proof by its ethnic composition 50% Muslim 25% Sikh and 25% Hindus drawn from castes that did not mutiny like Punjabi,Maratha’s, Gurkha’s etc.
Indian Navy otoh was broadly representative of British India’s ethnic mix hence more prone to revolt/sabotage.
Overall yes they are. More money,much more institutional experience both at the end product and Sub Component level will do that.
But even then this is an unforgiving industry where even pastmasters screw up.
Take for example fighter aircraft a country like the US for whom SR 71 is1950s/60s tech and has built many other flying wonders decades ahead of the rest of the world like the YF 23 black widow should not have had such serious problems with the JSF. But there you have it..
So, like utu, you have read The Mismeasure of Man, on which I congratulate the both of you.
That’s why they selectively give work permits and permanent residency to qualified individuals, with preference to south East Asians of Chinese descent, who are the easiest to assimilate.
In other words, it’s a population sink. Why would it be a good thing if such population sinks proliferated? We need fewer, not more of them.
Don’t know how many generations it will take to overcome centuries of starvation, especially for the lower castes.
IMO India (and Brazil) will stay “high potential” countries for the foreseeable future.
Many countries are going down the sub-replacement fertility path: Japan, Korea, Taiwan, much of Western Europe. Singapore is not an exception. This seems to be the unfortunate side effect of prosperity along with an unmooring from their traditions.
And now China as well. Why do you think their government has relaxed their one child policy?
But the problem arises in the political arena. While, currently, smart people are immensely out numbered by those of average IQ, lowering the average IQ would exacerbate the voting power of idiots.
Scientific productivity is currently being adversely affected by lower IQ.
What are you talking about? They need to end starvation of children, and that’ll immediately improve the IQ of those generations. That’s easy.
They won’t be able to fix genetic stupid, but fixing environmental stupid should be pretty easy, and according to your data (I didn’t check) there should be a huge room for improvement there.
But China as a whole is not yet a population sink of smart people moving there and then dying childless (or at least grandchild-less).
Yes, it’s a universal problem, but population sinks just increase the dysgenic trends elsewhere. They are parasitic entities. So no need for another Singapore or Hong Kong.
Swiss salaries may be high, but so are their taxes. The presence of world class EU research centers is probably the true reason as the author has said.
Small countries like Switzerland and Singapore score so highly because they attract qualified researchers thorough opportunities and/or money, not because of their native talent pool.
Vox Day identifies, much like Elizabeth “Pocahantas” Warren does, as an Injun. Unfortunately, his own kind don’t want him any more than they want Senator Warren.
Swiss tax rates are pretty low, probably among the lowest in the developed world.
Al-Khwarizmi was Aryan.
So is the cost of living!
They know that stating the obvious will be the death of their careers. See what happened to Dr. Watson.
One thing which interests me but I have never been able to find a straight answer to is how much the absolute differences in underlying intelligence represented by one IQ point change at different sections of the curve.
STEM people include physicists and similar people, who, outside their areas of expertise, just swallow whole the “official” view, whatever that happens to be. There are of course many exceptions, but I haven’t seen many STEM people who reject Blank Slatist orthodoxy. In Budapest I know the opinion of people in one office, mostly computer programmers with engineering degrees, and they are pretty leftist and Blank Slatist. Most of them think that children are greatly influenced by parenting styles, so any bad outcome must be the result of bad parenting. The majority of them reject racial differences in intelligence, though with the majority of them I wouldn’t even broach the topic, lest they consider me a horrible incarnation of Hitler.
And this in based Hungary. I guess in Western Europe or the US STEM people are similar, but worse.
What I find even more horrible than STEM people in general being Blank Slatist is biologists and geneticists and similar people in particular being so. Though you have to understand that it’s a huge field, and outside their field of expertise they also aren’t especially knowledgeable.
I also think that many of them lie for political reason, as you write, but it’s not always a good thing. Because many secret race realists think that it should be a secret or forbidden knowledge, because Nazism! and Eugenics! and Hitler! So they think they are telling white lies.
I had the same experience with high school friends. I went to an academic high school, and most who went there (including those who later became engineers etc.) don’t think much about differences among races, but when they do, they simply swallow anti-racist nonsense wholesale.
Even nationalists are usually all about “the Americans criticize us, but they are oppressing the Negroes!” type idiocies.
I have not read this book.
For my work, we sometimes have to think a bit about a generally related topics – i.e. what is real and what is not real.
What would a white Rhodesian smart fraction have been like?
http://jonjayray.tripod.com/weyl.html
When comparing the US and China, we might also ask what portion is already done by Chinese researchers wearing the USA jersey.
I guess it’s normalized to the Zimbabwean average, so 100 would be the average of Zimbabwe.
True, at least to an extent.
One should remember that academics often, even as they burst with pride at their unparalleled intellects, are quite cloistered and naive. The top professors of many STEM subjects have usually never worked outside a university department or (shudder) perhaps a megacorp research unit. Ivory tower all the way. Thus, their experiences are often at most second hand.
I don’t think so; otherwise the comparison with the other countries would make no sense. That is also not how scores are normally given.
I agree, there isn’t a current functioning model of a city-state.
When you bring a bunch of smart people together, it might be inherently dysgenic. Their economic success drives up rents. Their competition probably causes them to work longer hours. It may promote the idea of credentialism. All things that are anti-natalist.
Still, I am a bit reluctant to throw away the concept, even if we treat it as an inherent population sink. Maybe, it could be made an attractive, trendy destination to people, who would otherwise be a harm the society of larger countries. For instance, people who welcome migrants, or who are obsessive virtue-signalers.
As I understan things, some 200,000,000 Euro whites in America do all the intellectual heavy lifting and, potentially, a billion somewhat smarter Han in China. Throw in the productive parts of Europe and the numbers are not so stark, but does this not imply that China’s share will grow as its population comes more on line? Conformism, which assuredly exists, may or may not prevent blue-sky innovation, but not, I should think, superb engineering, advances in AI etc. There is no hope that SJW enstupidation will be reversed for at least several decades since it is being instilled from the first grade on and is embraced by the professoriat.
In this case, I think the two relevant trends are:
1.) how many are coming to white countries?
2.) what is the internal TFR differential in these countries?
TFR in the third world is of marginal or tertiary importance, since the reality is that the net population of whites is pretty low compared to these other groups. The potential for continued inflow is virtually unlimited.
Though, there is something potentially positive about declining TFR: eventually the third world might have ghost cities that they will be eager to fill up, and we can provide them with the people, with mass deportations.
I love how un-PC Rhodesia and SA used to be.
As to the numbers: I think they are at least reasonably plausible. Wouldn’t Rhodesians primarily be the descendants of two separate emigration events? This could have weeded out the dumber ones. Still, if we accept it, it is disturbing what happened to them, despite them being smart.
It’s the smart fraction, stupid!
If that’s the gist of Anatoly’s article, I concur. And, if so, the key long-term public policy questions that must be answered by every country are these: how can government create the right environment for the smart fraction to be fruitful and multiply? How can government create the right incentives so that the smart fraction may be stimulated to “do their thing”?
Well, according to Anatoly, the answer is certainly NOT what Brazil’s new government has just done — and I would concur once more. We Brazilians are shooting ourselves in the foot yet again by playing Robin Hood: we are snatching the few resources we do have away from the smart fraction and dumping them into the bottomless pit where the great unwashed wail and groan for limitless gibs. It is a nonsensical counterproductive anti-growth policy designed to waste limited resources.
What we’ve done is gone on a warpath to smother the tiny sliver of a smart fraction we’ve still got – which is not a lot, although certain academics would not agree (see Flores-Mendoza’s “Considerations about IQ and human capital in Brazil”, in which she argues that we have about 20 million Brazilians at “the highest levels of human capital” – fat chance!).
Now, the new administration in Brazil is supposedly enlightened: they’re whole government program is based on Olavo de Carvalho’s crusade against “globalism” and “cultural marxists”. Certainly they’ve got people who are hbd-aware – the new education minister, for example. Certainly he knows about smart fractions. Then, why would he pursue this suicidal policy? Why, minister Abraham Weintraub? Why?
‘Deep learning’ is a misnomer. The ‘deep’ part doesn’t refer to depth of learning, only to the number of layers in the (almost always software-simulated) neural network.
Sure, it works for many (not all) guidance and recognition tasks, the combination of those may put many commercial drivers out of work, some time.
That depends on governments allowing it.
I don’t want my taxi driver, for example, to be a P.K. Dick style automaton (perhaps it would be entertaining if they were to sprout the kind of lines he posits), I prefer a human taxi driver, no matter how taciturn, and I have only one bad experience (intentionally misdirected) in twenty years back in Tokyo.
When overseas, in a high-immigrant population environment, taxi business is full of cheats.
This was mainly Indian sub-continentals and Arabs, both groups having a relatively high rate of raping lone passengers late at night (anecdotally, the sub-continentals are worse on that point).
I eventually would just wave them by, and wait for a European or East Asian driver.
Who wants to be in a car with nobody in the driver’s seat?
I kmow that it is a goal of tech. as of now, my work has, at times, been connected to it.
IMHO, even trusted Toyota will not be convincing people in Japan to trust driver-less vehicles.
Singapore attracts competent as well as wealthy people from all over the planet. There will never be any problem as long as this pipeline of talent continues to flow (which it will). Longer term, you solve the problem of infertility by curing aging.
BTW, I am hearing through the internet grape vine that Singapore is becoming a hot-bed of anti-aging research. They do have a rather large biotech industry. I am also hearing through the same grape vine that a biotech company has achieved robust mouse rejuvenation this month.
It’s not quit yet.
Those countries lose their brightest mind to the industrial countries’ Academic-Scientific Industrial Complex.
If you break down the TFR among social/educational classes, those countries are getting more prole-ish before they get rich.
In Moroccan hinterlands and in Algerian ghettoes people are still having 4/5 kids. While the academic elites of those countries are only having 1.5 children.
There is a demographic reason why Turkey & Arab countries became more conservative over the last decades.
Only China, and SE-Asia are turning farmer-sons into technicians & engineers, while turning middle-class sons into scientists.
The numbers interest me because the opinion that I always heard about it was that it was a lower-middle-class-nostate (and you can see this from the manners and accents of people in videos of it). This also explains the contempt many British governments had from it, since the lower-middle-class is by far the most despised class in British culture.
Still, that means that Rhodesian whites had essentially no working-class which would explain the very high numbers, I think they are plausible too.
They did do incredibly well considering their isolation, tiny numbers and Communist support for their enemies (although they were also supported by significant numbers of blacks).
Agreed. I would also say that autonomous cars will require that automation be built into the roads themselves, which was the general idea in the 90’s. Both cars and the roads themselves must be automated for a truly redundant and robust system. This will be expensive and will start with the freeways. I believe the Chinese are going this route with autonomous cars. I know that they are building their “new” cities with freeways and main surface streets separated from pedestrians and laid out for automation to be built in. I think we will see limited autonomous cars in China before we see them here in the U.S. I agree with you I’ve never had a problem with taxi drivers and do not understand the hard on people have for automating them out of the job.
My bugaboo is the construction industry (all of it) that I utterly despise. I would like to see robotics and 3D printing automate the construction industry and changing it beyond recognition.
Maybe.
But still, some people are more intelligent than others. Einstein’s contribution to science was not so much bigger than mine because he put in more effort. He really was much smarter than me. And he was born that way.
Likewise, it is an observable fact that people are on average smarter in some countries than in others, as the PISA results clearly suggest.
Given the complexity of the human mind, IQ tests may be an imperfect tool for measuring innate intelligence but they are not useless. In fact, they are widely used at schools, the military and for job selection processes. For certain tasks they do have strong predictive power.
I think that all this has all been discussed ad nauseam, both here at unz.com and in the psychometric literature, so we’re not going to make any breakthrough in this thread but substitute IQ by intelligence (what IQ is trying to measure), correct for the confounding factor of per capita GDP and Anatoly’s analysis and predictions largely stand.
I wonder if Japan might be described in the same way.
Repeated assumptions that require support:
A perpetual increase in technology results in more desirable living conditions
Raising average intelligence necessarily produces technological innovation
Counter examples:
The 20th Century
Conclusive proof of Turanism theory
Children seemed abnormally educated or polite (although with a conventional imagination)? in the old UFO videos about Zimbabwe?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBiMzxdc09o
What is going on at the northern border of Brazil ? (French Guiana) Huwhite Rocket Boyz according to Wikipedia. Amazing that Huwhite Rocket Boyz could do their thing in a place whose population at large probably has more in common with Haiti than the European Union.
Very good. I would add only add that scientific productivity, all other factors included, depends on the will to live, fight & prosper. Man does not live to do science; he does science to achieve greater & more fulfilled, free life.
Without it, no amount of investment, good life, IQ, planning, money,…. does not matter.
Right. When these get added the Sino-American ratio may be 0.15-0.25. I’m not sure.
Another myth is the virgin distance runner v the chad right wing lifter. I know several guys lifting weights who are leftists (including kettlebell and barbell coaches, for example several so-called “OldSchool” coaches who are using the methods of old circus strongmen who had to stay strong well into their sixties). Though it’s still noticeably more right wing than distance runners, but the difference is probably exaggerated.
@Anatoly Karlin
A ridiculous tome, which ironically puts into vivid relief Murray’s own stupidity. Encyclopedia mentions as a barometer of civilizational accomplishment, eh? LMAO. Only people like you and that imbecile Res would cite such garbage as evidence of anything.
Tell that to Arab-Americans, Nigerian-Americans, Persian-Americans, Filipino-Americans, Indian-Americans and many other so-called third worlders. For most of these people, America is not at all a difficult, intellectually demanding environment but rather an easy downhill ride where the natives offer little in the way of competition.
Oh, and I’m sure these two immigrants raise rather than lower the collective intelligence of Mother Russia:
Nigerian students breaks world academic record in Russia, scores 5.0 GPA
The Federal Ministry of Education on Wednesday in Abuja honoured Dr Victor Olalusi who scored 5.0 Cumulative Grade Point Average (GPA) in Russian National Research Medical University, Moscow (RNRMU) in 2013, arguably the first in the world.
Olalusi, who was the best graduating student in the whole Russian Federation in 2013, studied in RNRMU under the Russia-Nigeria Bilateral Education Agreement.
http://www.atqnews.com/ng/nigerian-students-breaks-world-academic-record-in-russia-scores-5-0-gpa/
Young Nigerian Of Igbo Extraction Sets Academic Record In Russia
Ifesinachi Nelson Ezeh, a 26-year-old Nigerian, has dazzled Russia with his brilliance. The Nsukka, Enugu State-born student finished his Master’s degree in Agronomy at Saint Petersburg State Agrarian University, graduating with a Cumulative Grade Point Average (CGPA) of 5.0 – the highest Russia has ever recorded.
https://therepublicannews.net/2016/06/30/young-nigerian-of-igbo-extraction-set-academic-record-in-russia/comment-page-1/
So here you have a couple of Nigerians setting academic records in your own Russia (and there’s more where that came from) and you have the temerity to berate “third worlders” as somehow intellectually incapacitated.
HBD/IQism is not a valid scientific discipline. Rather, it is an ideology with an inflexible canon of what are essentially laws, along with rites and rituals like any other cult. For example, the belief that black people have small brains and are therefore less intelligent is an aspect of the canon so integral to maintaining HBD/IQist canonical coherence and integrity that it would be impossible to pierce that bubble of stupidity without an intervention and comprehensive deprogramming. Actually, if the HBD/IQist sect wasn’t vanishingly small and inconsequential, it would necessarily be labeled a pernicious cult and become the focus of anti-cult activities.
I question the statement that Europe had near universal literacy in the 19th century. Immigrants to the USA were about 30% illiterate. They signed their names with a X, or in the case of Jews with an O. These 19th century immigrants were Germans, Irish, Italians, Polish, Russians and Scandinavians. Early in the 20th century America had literacy tests for immigrants.
In the US high school completion wasn’t common til after WW II.
OK, so you found a hyper-outlier. I know a fellow who survived (with very minor injuries) a high speed car crash because he forgot to buckle up and was ejected from the vehicle.
Study of Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Engineering is too stressful for impressionable young minds and, as well, this encourages elitism; causing students of more ‘humane’ subjects to feel excluded.
In Hungary it was 44% among Hungarians (only mother tongue was registered) in 1880, grew to around 67% by 1910. Germans in Hungary had higher literacy rates, but other ethnic groups were significantly lower. Rusyns didn’t reach 25% yet in 1910. Even Croats and Serbs were below 50%.
Unless resources that would have otherwise gone to scientific pursuits are redirected towards accommodating immigrants in the form of welfare or other public programs. Also, don’t forget diversity quotas and affirmative action.
That’s right, goyim. There is no Jewish nepotism; we’re just that much smarter than you!
https://i.imgur.com/CgnNZMr.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/LvAJkBA.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/eFq4mFu.jpg
So, these two highly intelligent persons (the only ones in Africa, apparently) just happened to end up in Russia where they broke academic records. If you really believe that, I have a bridge in Brooklyn for sale. What’s much more plausible and much more likely is that these Nigerians are the tip of the iceberg rather than outliers.
This notion that everything that contradicts the HBD/IQist narrative is an outlier is the engine that keeps the cult going within the echo-chambers of the cult. Outside of the cult, however, it’s a fantastically stupid notion. You can’t go to a real scientific forum in the real world and make that argument and not get laughed out of the building. Which is probably why people like Karlin avoid real scientific fora like the plague.
Which Japan would be better for the native Japanese?
Japan #1 – 98% Japanese
Japan #2 – 55% Japanese, 20% Hispanic mestizo, 15% Sub-Saharan African, 10% Muslim Arab
This is a definitely a topic that should be explored further, as the increasing “publish or perish” culture increasingly encourages bad behavior.
From Isaac Newton threw WWI Britain had a remarkable run of scientific discovery. It did so because of its culture. It cherished discovery – from nobleman to village teacher, discovery of nature was held up as the pinnacle of achievement. Everyone was cognizant of finding the next Michael Faraday. British society promoted those with natural talent. This beneficial value system was a male endeavor.
Today in America – men (white men) are being academically shortchanged by the leftist feminist culture. Male brilliance is the enemy – it is not valued – it is not given its just due. Intellectual innovation is the lifeblood of a society. Every new piece of science is a challenge to the existing order. This requires both brilliance and fortitude – male traits.
In twenty years, the result of the SJW feminist clampdown, is that we will all be equal – but poor.
Nigeria has a very large population (larger than Russia) so the number of people on the high end of bell curve will also be large. The average Nigerian IQ is still low. By your logic, the fact that there are many mentally retarded Nigerians must prove that Nigerians are stupid, because outliers are nonsense.
I don’t doubt the person you linked is very bright, but ‘academic records’ are not really a sign of some great genius. Come back if he achieves something in the real world.
https://i.imgur.com/s4MgC6Y.jpg
He is doing so because he wants to. He’s not doing that out of necessity
Mr. Lee was a wise man. I think he was ahead of his time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpmeckx7a9w
Your point stands. However your Japan #2 is wrong. Japan #2 should be 55% Japanese, 20% white, 15% Chinese and 10% Korean to control for ability. Democracy and tribal diversity don’t mix.
Chinese researchers wearing the USA jersey are joint or sole authors of about 55% of non-medical STEM papers, by my eyeball.
Swiss taxes are high, by ridiculously high prices in Switzerland hit people there even more. I know two countries where everything costs 2-3 times more than in normal developed countries: Switzerland and Japan. That’s why Swiss who live not too far from the border go shopping to Germany, France, or Italy: there the money they have can get them what the nominal suggests. The prosperity of Swiss who are forced to shop in Switzerland is fake, just like the prosperity of Japanese. Everyone who was to Europe has seen little Japanese women who shop like crazy, filling suitcases that are taller than they are. Having visited Japan, I understand this phenomenon: for the Japanese everything in Europe is dirt-cheap. I don’t know who is inflating Swiss and Japanese bubbles, but their real buying power is way lower than their salaries suggest.
Really? Do you want to scrape some journal sites and analyze the author names?
Can we just ban most Negroids from Unz? They do not contribute to discussions. Instead they just disrupt discussions.
That’s the same everywhere. Intelligence varies within every group, large or small. But there’s no evidence that the highest levels of intelligence are less prevalent among Nigerians in comparison to Russians, for example.
No credible Nigerian IQ survey has ever been done. So you just made that up. No one real and credible cares what the national IQ of Nigeria is. So the vacuum is filled by jokers and fraudsters like Richard Lynn, whose “data” is about as valid as used toilet paper. The real world simply presumes (correctly) that Nigerians are as intelligent as any other nationality, therefore it would be a complete waste of time and resources to undertake a real study of Nigerian intelligence.
You would lose serious money if you bet that there were more mentally retarded Nigerians than Americans. In fact, according to The World Health Organization, the USA, Britain, Finland, Japan and Australia all have much higher percentages of mentally retarded than Nigeria.
https://www.targetmap.com/viewer.aspx?reportId=49633
You see, in the real world we focus on real mental retardation and real intellectual disabilities. The fantasy HBDer/IQist world where perfectly functional Africans are deemed functionality retarded per fraudulent “data” has no currency in reality.
Nice try. It’s no wonder that your ideology is such a joke that Karlin wouldn’t even have the balls to present his absurd pseudoscience at a scientific conference in Russia. Take a hint.
China has invested more in R&D than the US since 2009 and currently outspends us 3:1. [img]https://i.imgur.com/FRb0Lgk.jpg[/img]
China has 300,000 people with IQs above 160, compared to America’s 10,000 (per Steve Hsu).
China is fully committed to machine superintelligence and genomic IQ augmentation. BGI has a large division devoted to superintelligence and, as we’ve seen, CRISPR experimentation has already begun. If those children turn out normal and HIV resistant, look out!
China’s historic emphasis on material science and technology, which may results in Nature’s lower ranking, has changed. Expect their biological/medical ranking to level up.
This is shocking.
Chinese underperformance is even worse than I realized.
They spend the money. They are really trying.
In every field people know the labs whose results are usually reproducible (i.e., true), and whose are not. I know labs whose results reproduce >90% of the time, so that you can base something on them, and those whose results you should simply ignore. I also know a lab whose results were >80% reproducible 20 years ago, and today no more than 20% are reproducible.
There are two key problems. One is how the impact is calculated (see my comment #49) – it is the number of mentions (citations), which are counted regardless whether people say that your data are great or complete BS. That’s why the index AK is basing his musings on is crap. What’s more, in their desire to maintain or increase impact, “scientific” journals prefer sensational stuff (which often times turns out to be BS) or papers from big-name labs, because they will give you high impact by self-citation. The other problem is how funding is distributed. In the US the key is the score you get from NIH study section. Usually study section consists of 20-25 people from several fields, not necessarily even closely related. Your grant usually gets three reviewers. If you are lucky, they are from your field, know your reputation (if you are honest, that is), and score you high. If you get one out-of-the-field person giving you random low score (the psychology of most grant reviewers is that if they don’t understand your proposal, than you are a fool, not them), you are cooked. In the old days (say, 20-30 years ago) success rate was higher, so that one really enthusiastic reviewer could have saved your grant. Nowadays one hostile reviewer can easily kill it. So, the review becomes more of a lottery, and the only thing that can sway out-of-the-field reviewers is your publications in high-impact journals (which are more often BS than publications in medium-impact journals). Thus, bad behavior is rewarded, and cheating is seldom punished.
Rather unfortunate that this portion is tucked away at the very end of the post.
Several things are implied there which I think are worth making more explicit, and examining on their own terms more closely.
Claim: The West may still do well in many important respects even if/when native (full-White) racial stock falls to <50%. This will start as soon as the 2040s for the critical working-age population cohorts in one country after another. Even if Camp of the Saints-like mass migration event (that dwarves the disgraceful Merkel Wave of 2015-16) were to, say, move up this timeframe, there will still be ‘x’ million Whites, and ‘y’ million other cognitive elites poached from abroad who are to some degree loyal technocrats/drones to the adopted system. x(+y) is not reduced in number if ‘z’ — low-IQ, non-native, unproductive class — becomes, say 3z, 5z, or even 10z.
Implication 2: Low-IQ immigrant stock are never allowed to vote their way into the Treasury and, effectively, ruin society (restriction on democracy).
Implication 3: Whereas the genius of the past in NW European-descended populations basically came from the general population and not some kind of top-tier caste (as if most American scientific activity were the purview of, say, Episcopalians in the northeast USA with others contributing little to nothing), in the future scientific/other endeavor is to come only from this emerging top-tier caste in the new race-IQ stratification system. The general population, to the extent there is such a thing, will be a kind of vast mush of mediocrity that needs to be managed by the new overclass.
(Comment: This race-IQ ‘overclass’ dynamic can already be observed to exist as of the 2010s in large parts of the West. It is almost certain to increase in the 2020s, and the mid-2010s-or-so political speedbump [e.g., Brexit; Trump before his metamorphosis into Blumpf] has failed to dislodge its ascent. The new overclass is already post-White, increasingly in racial terms but definitely at the least in psychological terms.)
This leaves us with two contrasting social setups:
The “golden-age West,” where talent was, to a great extent, ‘native,’ abundant, and democratic; and the “post-West,” where talent is (increasingly) restricted to a specific, rather small, high-IQ quasi-social class operating as a parallel society that is separated from the main body, and that is largely rootless (i..e., of non-local origin; and likely, at the least, psychologically transient, wherever they are at the moment and however long they’ve been there). Needless to say, the former (“golden-age West”) is the classic White Man’s model, and the latter is actually pretty much the classic Jewish ‘Diaspora’ model.
Put in cruder terms, then, what I see in that argument is: mass immigration may not destroy the West, but it may Judaize the West. In other words, our future elite will all (have to) take on Jewish diaspora ethics and assimilate to that kind of group consciousness, or disappear and be relegated to irrelevance in a post-White West.
Jewish Disapora Ethics is really not our m.o., not our style. Distasteful at best. I would imagine that a lot of talented Western men today opt out of this on a kind of moral principle.
But here is the ironic part (if “ironic” is the word I want): It was specifically a culture, centuries in the making, that rejected such ethics that laid the groundwork for modern science in the first place!
One of the best measures of innovation is if you can come up with a new product that people will buy.
By this measure, I have been somewhat disappointed when it comes to their production of movies. For instance, Red Cliff came out in 2008 and cost about $80 million – a pretty big price tag in local buying power – nearly something unheard of outside Hollywood. It shows their capacity to finance blockbusters. But the film itself was pretty so-so. It was lacking in character depth.
Their 2nd most expensive film Asura ($100 million) was released in 2018. It was pulled from theaters after only a week because it was so bad. I want them to develop into a credible threat to Hollywood, but if anything they have regressed, compared to the old HK films – for instance, people in the US used to talk about Jackie Chan’s stunts. I blame the decline on the bad influence of communism. Hopefully, they will figure out a way to tell better stories.
If you want a credible alternative to Hollywod try Japanese anime and cinema, as discussed in another thread.
There is some vital spark missing from the Chinese at the moment, and I don’t think it’s going to get any better soon. They seem to be heading in the direction of greater suppression of individuality and quirkiness, which is so vital for high level creativity.
Please..
Trouble is that egalitarians have already captured the legal system. What hope for segregation is there, if websites like Christian Mingle have to now include gays? Try finding a white school district in 2019 and see what a house costs you. And to top it off, if you are near the city, they will bus blacks in.
http://www-ssg.sr.unh.edu/preceptorial/Summaries_2004/Vernadsky_Pap_ITru.html
If whites adopt this approach you guys will become no different from Jews, Overseas Chinese, Gujaratis, Overseas Lebanese and Parsis. You guys will have to face the wrath of an alien and lower-performing people of another race every day, worry about their periodic pogroms against you and have to give them money and girls to basically bribe them not to attack you.
Don’t be like that.
Wait. Isn’t this already how whites live in South Africa and Zimbabwe (if not Botswana too)?
Moreover if all high-IQ races decide to reject ethnostates and go down this route who will be the skilled farmers and factory workers? The world will be devoid of a good and reliable working class permanently. If AI does not catch up this will be disastrous.
Are you still pretending to be Chinese or have you given that up?
Back to Vox Day. The last thing you can say about him is that he is not realistic. I find people who like society of high functioning individuals lack basic understanding of how diverse groups function. Having worked in this environment the last thing I want is to live in it.
Last I heard Singapore is mostly Han Chinese.
本人无需理会某洲人的胡说八道。你们给我永远滚出广州、滚出中国、滚出全东亚!
Yeah, is this a product of Google Translate? Nope. Anyone who can read Mandarin knows that I’m a very fluent Mandarin speaker.
Since I suspect that Anatoly Karlin may not like racial slurs too much I didn’t use them even in my Mandarin.
“the cheaters are now producing the third generation scientific offspring and vacuuming up funding.”
— Sigh.
你是一个假装是中国人的印第安巨魔。
In fact I should probably do it in Hindi:
आप एक भारतीय ट्रोल हैं
Don’t worry about Anatoly Karlin. He’s been known to use racial slurs himself. So knock yourself out. He won’t mind. He might even join in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kIrHgKlSnY
0:59 is EastKekistani. There. 🙂
The groid “Tyrone” doesn’t get any White pussy, much less anyone’s daughter, to a White girl, “Tyrone” is less than zero.”Tyrone” merely consumes massive amounts of interracial porn. The only White guys converting to the muzzie-slime cult are mentally ill clowns like Walker Lindh, and that number is close to zero, still there are more Walker Lindhs than Tyrones. You’ve been watching too much TV, Xityl, and I don’t believe you are White, because if you were, you would know like I do, that girls of all races prefer White Men. What I have consistently noticed is Black guys act like girls, the Black male is an absurd joke. And you have obviously never attended a “White BBQ”, your entire comment reeks of fecal dishonesty.
The West may still do well in many important respects even if/when native (full-White) racial stock falls to <50%.
Hmm — California – half white – one party liberal SJW state – very rich and very poor – white middle class flight – once best schools, now worst schools – sky high home prices, rents – major drugged-out homeless – massive regulations, high taxes.
Our future!
You don’t even write Mandarin. Hell you don’t even know that East Indian (印度人) and Amerind (印第安人) aren’t the same word in Mandarin when you used the Google Translate. Also what the hell is “巨魔”? We usually don’t use that in Chinese unless we are writing 玄幻小说.
Agree. It is painful to listen to some celebrity ignoramuses of philosophical persuasion when they bloviate about AI while showing a very poor understanding, in scientific terms, of what consciousness is.
LOL. LOL.
You’re blabbering like someone too stupid to plug the Mandarin into a translation tool.
We all know you’re an Indian. You’ve already been exposed for the fraud you are.
黑猩猩滚出Unz网!
Want more? Do you want me to write a 讨黑祸檄?
Haha. You are hilarious.
OK I will write a 讨黑祸檄 today.
I’m not going to insult the brotherly Chinese people. You have failed in your mission, Hindu troll.
Oh, here’s something you might like:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XHS_ftUARI
Hello reiner Tor,
My immigrant ancestors were Irish and they had about a fourth grade education. They were able to succeed in America because the economy was dynamic. Other groups had similar educations but they also prospered in America. The sons of centuries long farmers became airline pilots, college professors and successful business people. The early 20th century was a great time to be alive.
We are not your brothers for we treated you with kindness and you repaid our kindness with TNB. We will never forget TAZARA and other things we gave you out of kindness that you treated with contempt.
I believe Germany long led the way in (mass) literacy on the European continent, and achieved near full literacy by some point in the 19th century, and impressively high levels before that.
It is said that the Protestant movement, born in Germany, was heavily responsible for getting this going. Gutenberg was a German, of course, but it’s unclear what implications that fact(oid) alone would have for people living, say, five generations later or their leaders who set policy on, e.g., encouragement/discouragement of literacy. Large-scale policy shifts occur with major political or religious movements like the Reformation (which is said to have succeeded in large part thanks to the Gutenberg printing press…)
A Hindu troll like you does not speak for the Chinese people.
Let’s hear from some real Chinese people:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSnCeSHB3-I
It is unfortunate that we don’t react to this like older whites or Arabs. However the people are angry at your AIDS, crimes and muh dikking. If you are proud of muh dikking our chicks when people eventually rise up against commies we will also deal with their Negroid pets fuxxating Guangzhou and other mostly southern Chinese cities. That day will come. We NE Asian people are very nice and patient. In fact we are even more patient than white people. However if we actually counterattack because we had enough we won’t need to counterattack twice.
Shut-up, Hindu. No one cares about you or what you think. Your opinion is about as valuable as a piece of soiled toilet paper. Even if you were a real Chinese (which you’re not), your opinion would be irrelevant. Now shut the fuck up.
Oh, speaking of Guangzhou, you’ll love this:
African-Chinese couples on the rise in Guangzhou, China
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGJSDpqkO8U
Nigeria is rising to the top in all kinds of rankings.
http://saharareporters.com/2019/03/24/nigeria-set-overtake-india-open-defecation-ranking
I simply consider Indians my 统战对象. Do you even know what 统战 is? It is a commie term but non-commies like me also use it. It means “try to persuade X to join us in fighting against Y”. No matter how good or bad X is to us right now we need to invite them to join the battle against Y.
It’s really that simple. For example in Ni*germania Tom Shelly considers non-white non-groids his 统战对象.
You’re a moron, of course. China and India are eternal enemies. China and Africa, however, have always had brotherly relations. It was China, after all, along with the USSR and Cuba, that helped Southern African freedom fighters defeat the white supremacist regimes there.
Accordingly, I’ve decided to not let a Hindu provocateur like you goad me into disparaging the Chinese people. The two great peoples of Africa and China are capable of symbioses and synergies that can shake up the world.
China and India are currently geopolitical rivals. However that was a very recent development. Nobody before 1948 believed in that. Historically Chinese dynasties and Indian ones were not rivals simply because it was extremely hard for us to reach each other (Xuanzang did visit India but he was a very rare exception).
You Negroids are evil. The more you hate a people the stronger they become. The more you love a people the weaker they become. I want to strengthen NE Asia hence I want you to hate us as much as possible, the more the better. I don’t hate whites which is why I warn them about you Negroids and mestizos. I don’t hate Indians which is why I don’t trick you Negroids into loving India.
.
Dude, no one cares what you want. You’re a piece of shit who lives here 24/7 writing some of the most outlandish and idiotic shit on the entire Internet. You’ve admitted that this is your entire life, that you don’t even like women, that you essentially have no life; that your life, such as it is, has no meaning.
You’re a jobless pensioner or retiree without a woman or a family or friends or any life whatsoever. So you are seething with anger. I’m pretty sure you’re on an FBI watchlist as a potential mass shooter. They’re watching you, Hindu.
The African guy in this video is more Chinese than you are.
Captivating love story of Chinese-African couple
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sb-NRYmm79g
Here are why I want the NE Asian race to become the single worst enemy of Negroids:
The amount of consensual sex between a racially NE Asian human and a Negroid will decline to almost zero. This results in less HIV, less STD in general.
The amount of incidences of spread of diseases from Negroids to NE Asian people will greatly decline as we all learn to avoid the groid.
The amount of crimes commited by Negroids against NE Asian people will decline again because we learn to avoid the groid.
Hating negroids is very beneficial.
Get it through your thick skull, Hindu: No one gives a shit what you want. The piece of crud stuck to the bottom of my shoe has more value than you.
Cat 1 chimpout.
LOL.
Mr. Karlin wrote:
The non-imported smart fractions come from the indigenous white populace. If you have non-white blood mingle with white blood, as miscegenation is surely doing to the country, and it’s getting worse with each generation, you’ll be depriving the smart fractions of members in the future. Many gifted whites come from the middle and even lower classes, and these classes are being affected by immigration and miscegenation. The smart fractions won’t be able to keep the mixed, negro and mestizo blood from tainting their families forever, you can’t be sure whom your descendants will marry.
Scientific and technological discoveries are not everything. You need to maintain civilization, and you need quality people for that. When the quality of the skills needed for the jobs drops, you’ll end up with problems in all spheres of life – call it social disfunction if you want.
And then if you believe in other forms of biological expression like I do, the ‘soul’ of the places formerly inhabited by Celtic-Germanic peoples (here the Anglos are included) that made up the majority of the US will change, and the country will lose its quaint essence.
If you’re so concerned about “Negroids” in NE Asia, why don’t you go over there and do something about it? What are you doing camping out here 24/7? To what end? For what purpose? To enlist white supremacists to your cause? White supremacists are a useless fringe group that the overwhelming majority of white people want nothing to do with. When they hold a rally only a handful of them show up, besieged by thousands of white counterprotesters. White supremacists can’t help you in whatever inane project you’ve cooked up in your puny little brain.
You can at least take your act to a NE Asian Internet forum and try to drum up hatred of “Negroids” there. That would make a great deal more sense than living on Unz Review and imparting a “message” to people that don’t like you, don’t want you and are not in position help you. Go test out your shtick at a real Chinese forum. See how your repetitive and boring racist invective is received. It doesn’t matter that you’re an Indian. You can play Chinese there too. See how far you get; how tolerant they are of your idiocy, and how many join in your crusade. Good luck.
We’re taking about Chinese researchers in America, remember. When they’re at home it’s a different matter.
According to the JSTA, Japan Science and Technology Agency, China is the most influential country in four of eight core scientific fields, tying with the U.S. The agency took the top 10% of the most referenced studies in each field, and determined the number of authors who were affiliated with the U.S., the U.K., Germany, France, China or Japan. China ranked first in computer science, mathematics, materials science and engineering. The U.S., on the other hand, led the way in physics, environmental and earth sciences, basic life science and clinical medicine. https://tinyurl.com/ydeqeqnb.
The Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (Ai2) suggests that China will overtake the US in the most-cited 50% of research papers this year, the top 10% of research papers in 2020, and the top 1% by 2025. Six of the 11 artificial intelligence (AI) unicorns – valued over one billion U.S. dollars – come from China, according to CB Insights, a research firm that tracks venture capital and startups. SenseTime took the top spot with a valuation of $4.5 billion dollars, followed by Yitu Technology at 2.3 billion U.S. dollars and smaller unicorns 4Paradigm, Horizon Robotics and Momenta. Chinese government policies incentivize the development of AI, automation, and robotics. (In 2016, authorities released the Robotics Industry Development Plan, outlining targets and strategies for growing the robotics industry in the next five years. PWC predicts that China will be the biggest winner from the application of AI worldwide. Adopting these novel technologies will lead to a 26% boost in China’s GDP by 2030, whereas, on average, world GDP will rise by 14%).
WIPO, The World Intellectual Property Organization, ranked 167 universities and public research universities for the top 500 patent applications. 110 of the patents were from China, 20 from the United States and 19 from South Korea. China dominates a global ranking of the most-cited research papers published in the 30 hottest technology fields.
Though the U.S. accounted for 3.9 million research papers overall compared with 2.9 million from China, the Asian country produced the largest share in 23 of the 30 fields that drew the most interest, while America took the crown for the remaining seven. Nikkei and Elsevier compiled the ranking based on 2013-18 data provided by the Dutch publisher, covering a total of 17.2 million papers. China led the world in the majority of the top 10 fields, and each of the five areas in the top 10 tied to battery research. It accounted for more than 70% of all papers on photocatalysts and nucleic-acid-targeted cancer treatment, which ranked 12th and 14th. The U.S. led in three biotechnology fields, including No. 7 genome editing and No. 10 immunotherapy.[1]
China has overtaken the US to become the world’s largest producer of scientific research papers, making up almost a fifth of the total global output, according to a major new report. [2]
China leads the world all fields of civil engineering, all fields of sustainable and renewable energy, manufacturing, blockchain, supercomputing, speech recognition, graphenics, thorium power, pebble bed reactors, genomics, thermal power generation, quantum communication networks, ASW missiles, drones, in-orbit satellite refueling, Genomic Precision Medicine, passive array radar, metamaterials, hyperspectral imaging, terahertz radar, nanotechnology, UHV electricity transmission, HSR, speech recognition, radiotelescopy, hypersonic weapons, satellite quantum communications, Railguns, quantum secure direct communications, quantum controls,.. “Approximately 72% of the academic patent families published in QIT since 2012 have been from Chinese universities. US universities are a distant second with 12%.”[3]
[1]https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/China-s-research-papers-lead-the-world-in-cutting-edge-tech
[2]https://www.stm-assoc.org/document-library/
[3] (Patintformatics. https://patinformatics.com/quantum-computing-report/).
Stupid imgur.
http://img28126.imagevenue.com/aAfkjfp01fo1i-3407/loc539/34951_1523156149324_122_539lo.jpg
Here and on other English-language sites I’m building a global multiracial alliance against you Negroids. I want to get whites, Indians, Iranians and Arabs on board. The Negroid problem can not be fully tackled in a nation alone. Instead it has to be tackled worldwide. Segregationism of WNs is a good intermediate step but it can not truly reduce effects of Negroid pathology to acceptable levels because your diseases and important minerals don’t always stay within your borders. Eventually we have to have supervision, that is, Africa-Ditcher officials appointed by UN or its successor to supervise a part of Negroid land and prevent events there from disrupting the rest of the world.
In China 广州黑人吧 and other sites are already spreading awareness about your (multiple) species. Some have even established contact with ni*germania.
As for the diaspora the Chinese diaspora already consists of mostly ni*germaniacs. On wenxuecity for example I can give you some random quotes under TNB articles.
Yet, they still can’t master the elevator or escalator… Just kidding! China is very advanced. Look at all the modern automobiles they have.
https://i.imgur.com/U8efI9t.jpg
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate
I agree that this situation is bad in China. However the elevator or the escalator isn’t necessarily something not mastered in China. Another possible scenario is that this is caused by fraud. When something doesn’t work in China it is usually a consequence of malevolent actions as opposed to lack of capabilities.
Oh, that’s very cute. This one probably won’t be coming on board though:
http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/images/2014/9/11/201491111541940585_8.jpg
What Negroid problem?
Oh, you mean this?
https://img.caixin.com/2016-08-23/1471951409928395.jpg
This lady won’t be joining your crusade either.
Doesn’t hurt to dream.
LOL. Okay. Spoken like an Indian troll who’s never been to China, knows nothing about China and doesn’t know a single Chinese.
Telling that the greatest achievement for black people is finding mud sharks.
Haha, I’m just having a little fun. China’s alright, but they could use some better safety regulations. Their government is practically national socialist now, and they know how to deal with Muslims. I do have concerns about the Chinese people, though. There seems to be a carelessness and disregard for human life that’s prevalent among them. Where this comes from, I do not know. Maybe it was from being constantly invaded and slaughtered or from all the mass starvation. I also hear they are Jew-tier when it comes to doing business. Then there’s the gutter oil, pollution, boiling dogs alive, cannibalism, etc. But then again, I’m a white American, and we are a perfect people with no flaws. #YangGang
The stereotype hard engineer is INTJ but the consulting engineers with people skill are mostly INFJ or ISTJ with Feeling and Sensing and Judgemental rather than Intuition and Thinking and Judgemental. In general population NT type are rare, so most uni engineering deans have to reach out to the NF or ST types to fill the quota.
Species mix incorrect grand parent cry broken branch
https://i.imgur.com/9hoW5Xk.jpg
Indeed. And it also means they will be, indeed are, sending their surplus population to stagnant open borders countries who just need muh pensions.
How interesting that the great and good elites managed to come up with the worst possible response to the actual problem.
I prefer the term ‘IQ shredder’, which gets to the point admirably quick (courtesy of blogger Spandrell).
Okechukwu, EastKekistani,
This is a low quality exchange which adds nothing to this thread, so just stop it, please.
Research paper from Harvard.
https://economics.harvard.edu/files/economics/files/freeman-and-xie_bigger_than_you_thought_chinas_contribution_journal_china_and_world_economy_jan2019.pdf
“Bigger Than You Thought: China’s Contribution to Scientific Publications and Its Impact on the Global Economy”
Lets look at the new generation of science researchers in USA, from the National Science Foundation there is a list of 3422 research fellowships awarded in 2018. I will assume that the process is that the senior researchers apply and got the research grants and they selected and nominated the post-docs for those reseach fellowships. Some of those research fellows might not be American citizens but they might receive permanent residency. It would be nice if the list can be broken down into their countries of origin or ethnic origins but in the list there are only names. So I tallied up the surnames which might give an idea of at least their ethnic origins. The list is long so I only give the first 30 surnames.
Gupta only come in at 24 and Patel at 57. Only 27 with surname ending in *ski (Polish?), 11 ending with *v (Slav?), 131 ending with *z (Hispanic?), 19 ending with *sen (Nordic?) There could be more for other nationalities with different surname patterns. Unexpectedly there is only 1 Wong. Some Lee’s might not be EastAsian, while some spell it as Li.
Seqid|N|SName
1|25|Lee
2|18|Chen
3|17|Wang
4|14|Smith
5|13|Johnson
6|11|Jones
7|11|King
8|11|Miller
9|10|Garcia
10|10|Kim
11|10|Li
12|10|Liu
13|9|Chang
14|9|Hernandez
15|9|Thomas
16|8|Lewis
17|8|Williams
18|8|Zhang
19|7|Anderson
20|7|Martin
21|7|White
22|7|Yu
23|6|Brown
24|6|Gupta
25|6|Kennedy
26|6|Nguyen
27|6|Ryan
28|6|Taylor
29|6|Wu
30|6|Yang
57|4|Patel
70|3|Bhattacharya
701|1|Chalkowski
412|1|Aristov
75|3|Christensen
2648|1|Wong-Ala
“America is not at all a difficult, intellectually demanding environment but rather an easy downhill ride where the natives offer little in the way of competition.”
— What kind of the natives these “so-called third worlders” encounter in the US? The LA ghettos? And why these “so-called third worlders” are so keen to demanding the various kinds of affirmative actions — to compensate for what?
By the way, whatever dazzling stuff is shown by the visiting Nigerians in Russia, the Russians are not ready to invite Nigerians en masse. Instead, Russians are glad to see white South Africans relocating from the suicidal, reverse-apartheid SA that has been decaying since the ANC had acquired political power.
“Destined for ruins: Rural SA towns collapse as 60% of municipalities dysfunctional” https://www.biznews.com/undictated/2018/06/15/rural-sa-towns-collapse-60-municipalities-dysfunctional
“What happens when universities start to decay:” https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2018-11-13-what-happens-when-universities-start-to-decay-the-case-of-unisa/
“Decline and decay: a sobering trip through southern Africa:” https://theconversation.com/decline-and-decay-a-sobering-trip-through-southern-africa-46943
Could black Africans do anything without white people or they need to relocate to the white Russia or the white (and vibrant) UK to disclose their abilities?
There are so many blogs and articles devoted to this “publish or perish” culture being bad, with a small subset devoted to saying how it encourages cheating.
I think that the main point is, and this is in reply to @AnonfromTN as well, is that there are quite a few bureaucratic tweaks you can do to eliminate the stagnation in science, which I really think comes from the huge amount of cheating and cutting corners. I thought it was a fringe issue 10 years ago and had a small impact, but these days I think that even if 2-5% of PIs do it, the downstream multiplier effect is so huge, that it shows in the lack of better cancer therapies or better materials that were predicted by science fans (such as Karlin) 20 years ago. We could be a lot closer with the right policy, which I don’t know what it would be… Maybe the Russian system where there is a harsh weeding out, but then a guaranteed job at the end, with a living salary but no realistic prospects of fame, would be better. I’m not that familiar with it. But I think the current grant system in the US (and other countries as well, with China adopting some of the worst practices) encourages this cancer that can eat away at honest scientists’ motivation.
He’s listed as Persian.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_ibn_Musa_al-Khwarizmi
The Persian/Medes AKA Iranians are Aryan. In fact “Iran” means Land of The Aryans. Iran has some of the most beautiful girls on earth, with their white, white skin and dark eyelashes…..really a tragedy Iran got swarmed by the muzzie-slime cult. An Iranian acquaintance once told me proudly “Our greatest author, a novel of a thousand pages, and not a single word of Arabic”.
Rumi?
Iranians are a self hating people desperate to be accepted as Europeans even though not more than 10% of Iranians can pass for Southern European.
And the majority of European level white Iranians are not Persians but people from the north like Gillan and Mazarendani a lot of the really really pretty women often have Georgian ancestors as Shah Abass relocated a large number of Georgians when Persians used to rule Georgia.
The real Aryan Iranians(Aryan was historically a self designation of Iranian and Indian civilizations only and they did not resemble Northern Europeans though they were both Indo European people by the time Cyrus founded the first Persian Empire this had long since mixed with Elamites and other pre existing middle eastern populations on the Iranian plateau)look like Cyrus the Great and Darius a distinct middle easternish facial structure not European..
I think he means Ferdowsi’s Shah Nameh.
Good point.
Even Tesla’s primitive ‘autopilot’ relies on a certain type of road, certain types of markings and barriers.
Useless on narrow rural roads as in Japan (the manoeuvering required to pass someone going the other way, or allow them to pass, and I would guess dirt roads anywhere.
In the east, sure, much talk of inter-vehicle and road-to-vehicle signals.
The only period when I needed a car, I loved driving.
I can see that it might be less fun on a wide jammed road in, say. California or N.Y. and N.J., but from photos, T.V., and movies, it looks like there are many places where it is fun to drive in Nth. America!
I am a little annoyed at Anatoly’s use of noosphere, it is not accurate, and many will not know the term and its origin (Teilhard de Chardin, almost a century ago, and he was not thinking of mechanical or electro-mechanical control systems, even though they had many sophisticated ones at the time).
I am puzzled by your reference to construction.
Two questions
Why does it bother you so? I have my own points of dislike, but they are more local.
3-D printing is small-scale and mainly works with polymers. Sure, I know that there are very expensive and heavily restricted machines that can work with metals, but the objects produced are still small-scale and structurally weak.
Serious question, as for construction, how can it help except beyond a way of making design models and decorations?
I highly doubt that the original Aryans in Iran would have looked like the people that live there today, centuries of race mixing with browner people occurred there.
There is a new aerospace company called Relativity. They aim to completely print rockets. First launch is scheduled for 2020. They already have at least one customer.
“China will perfect human gene editing and will use this godlike power to make all africans geniuses.”
you don’t actually believe that?
Then you don’t understand things. There’s a huge amount of intellectual heavy-lifting from Asian-Americans. If all of Ivy League had purely meritocratic admissions, it would look like CalTech, i.e. at least 40% Asian.
Interesting, but three caveats:
First, the US is a supremely attractive place for high IQ immigrants. So it is not limited to its domestic pool the same way China is.
Second, the accuracy of IQ decreases the further out you go on either side of the bell curve. We’re a lot worse at measuring accurately someone’s intelligence once we go above 130, 140. IQ was designed to be normative for recruitment of soldiers and it does best in the 80-120.
Thirdly, the issues of historically innovation for East Asians despite higher IQ is still unresolved.
That all said, I agree with you with regard to China’s unblemished focus on HBD and eugenics as a huge advantage going forward.
Yet not a single white Rhodesian was anywhere as smart as Mugabe or Nkomo, both of whom spoke the English language better than whites in addition to their mastery of several African languages. In fact all the leading figures in the black guerrilla movements were brilliant
Rhodesia is no more due to the kind of unwarranted supremacism exhibited here. This notion that only whites are intelligent, only whites are inventive, only whites can run countries, etc. is fool’s gold and has done immense, incalculable damage to whites themselves.
Ahh… the female Res in all her glory. Like Res, she writes like half of her brain is missing. And like Res, she’s as fanatical as Osama bin Laden.
Annamaria, please point me to an official Russian government document that throws the South African government (its BRICS partner and ally) under the bus in favor of validating the racist SA farmer genocide myth. A myth that any cursory fact-check will disprove.
That’s a pretty stupid question, even for you.
Hi IQ Icefops,
Lo SQ (Spiritual Quotient).
They invent nonstop,
But their society is spent.
You have conveniently omitted the quoted eye-witness report. Why?
“Decline and decay: a sobering trip through southern Africa:” https://theconversation.com/decline-and-decay-a-sobering-trip-through-southern-africa-46943
As for Russia, the country was kind enough to create a university named after Patrice Lumumba. However, the uninvited blacks are shown the door, justifiably: https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/sports/2019/03/06/scared-world-cup-migrants-face-russia-deportation/
“Russia to deport 5000 visitors:” https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-plans-to-deport-5000-visitors-who-attended-the-world-cup-but-still-have-not-left-2019-01-25
As compared to this permissiveness of French and disrespectful behavior of Africans in France: “Hundreds Of “Black Vest” Migrants Seize Paris Airport Terminal: “France Does Not Belong To The French!” https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-20/hundreds-black-vest-migrants-seize-paris-airport-terminal-france-does-not-belong
There is no welfare for sub-Saharan migrants in China and India. Guess what, the Africans do not hurry to relocate to either China or India; the Africans want to be next to white people, the whiter, the better… Why?
There are plenty of groids in China because commies DO coddle them a lot. Commies even assign ladies for groid students to muh dik, causing HIV to spread in China. Fuck the commies and their groid pets.
“Russia is wooing South Africa’s white farmers” – and who would not? https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/why-russia-is-wooing-south-africas-white-farmers/2018/09/23/3308a7c4-b6a3-11e8-ae4f-2c1439c96d79_story.html?utm_term=.c032752dfafc
https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/07/race-war-and-poverty-why-do-white-african-farmers-want-to-move-to-russia/
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/boer-delegation-russia-considering-opening-up-borders-for-white-sa-farmers/
Three cheers to Russia and some people in Australia. However that’s not enough. What about cutting aid to SA and sanction its leaders unless it adequately protects the white community? If the SA gov actually kills white people…do what Anglos used to do and what Israelis do today.
Diversity may be a long-term risk to scientific production, but anti-intellectual populism is a much more immediate one. Recent news of Brazil’s Bolsonaro slashing university funding by 30% will soon provide us with another test case.
Oh Anatoly, it always amazes me that you, of all people, should believe what the lying fake news media reports about anything. This is just untrue.
About 90% of Brazilian federal spending on higher education is earmarked by law and cannot be changed by the government, That’s the money that funds the payroll, basic maintenance, and such. Only about 10% of that budget is “discretionary” spending, that is, money that the chancellors of the universities may decide to spend one way of the other. Of THAT money, around 30% has been DELAYED (not “slashed”; I explain this below). That would be 30% of 10% or around 3% – THREE PERCENT – of the higher education budget.
Let me now explain the “delayed”. Right now the Bolsonaro administration and the traditional establishment are in a tug-of-war regarding the congressional approval of the government’s main planks (pension reform, anti-corruption reform, and anti-crime reform, among some others). It’s a complicated mess which I won’t take the space to explain here. The result has been that the expected date for the approval of the pensions reform – without which the Brazilian federal budget will be wholly consumed by pensions and the civil servant’s payroll within four years – is being pushed forward to the end of the year or early next year. And this means that this year the economy will grow less than expected. Which means that government revenue will be less. Which means…
Boring, boring, boring, I know. But here’s the rub. The national budged deficit is capped by law. And the law also forbids taking up debt to cover normal expenses (as opposed to capital investment). So Bolsonaro can’t overrun the maximum deficit established by law, and he cannot borrow money to cover up the missing amount. So he has a choice of printing money (and killing his government with inflation), or delaying expenditures, or being impeached (explained below).
This has happened every year since 2014 and was not uncommon before that. Optimistic estimates of revenue prove false, the Finance Minister by the end of the first semester delays expenditures across the board, usually more than is “mathematically necessary” since this is difficult to implement, and by the end of the year rhe spigot is turned open once it is clear the maximum deficit limit will not be breached. So, by say October, most of this money will probably be spent anyway.
Why is this important? Remember I said that law forbids the government from racking up debt to cover current expenses. This is what Dilma Rousseff did in 2014 and this was the formal, legal reason she was impeached in 2016. The establishment would like Bolsonaro to fall into the same trap, but he seems smarter than Rousseff. (Not a great feat, of course).
The delay in sending money to the education ministry is very small (three percent, remember). The energy ministry’s comparable amount is around 70% of its theoretical budget. Bolsonaro’s government is chock full of military officers, remember? The armed forces budget delay is almost 50% of its budget. So no, there’s no “war against science” or “war against education” going on in Brazil. Considering the uselessness and wokeness and most of what goes by that name in Brazil, by the way, it would almost be good if there were such things.
A final comment on Brazilian IQ. There are not too many studies about that. The usual quoted mean of around 86-87 seems right, but I know of not decent study on racial, regional and class stratification. I suspect the Brazilian smart fraction is considerably higher that what would be predicted from the country’s meab IQ alone. Charles Murray – of “Bell Curve” fame – once estimated its absolute number to be similar to Germany’s, which is not too bad, (Of course, per capita numbers would be much different, since Brazil’s population is more than double Germany’s).
TLDR; Anatoly, stop reading, or at least believing, the lying press.
There are plenty of African ‘students’ in India except Ethiopians who are decent enough the rest are nothing but trouble especially Nigerians who are into drug dealing and stuff..
There is many a slip between the cup and the lip. All of ‘Science’ today is not relevant to the quality of life of average citizens. Much of it has been taken over by careerists. Technology has a much closer bearing on quality of life. In the part of India where I live, the roads have been improved many-fold in recent years using standard technology, by what you dub as ‘low IQ’ people. Many of the ‘high IQ’ professions benefit disportionately from ultra-liberal monetary and MIC policies. Primary producers — ‘low IQ’ — suffer and cannot even complain legally.
All human beings — of any IQ! — need to note this: Economic exploitation — under ANY pretext — will be resented and resisted. What good is a so-called ‘high IQ’ person if his or her actions diminish my options of earning livelihood? Am I to treat such persons as kind of ‘demi-gods’ because of their alleged ‘high IQ’ — conceding to them full rights of receiving reverential offerings? Incidentally, most people working around POTUS — for many decades! — have been very high IQ people. I rest my case.
OT FYI: Noam Chomsky lecture and Q&A. Highly recommended.
Noam Chomsky – “The machine, the ghost, and the limits of understanding”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5in5EdjhD0
Uh..science is not as useless as you think it is. I’m sorry.
Thanks, I will looking into it.
Is it realistic? Or is it like Ansari X-prize, which was, IMHO, unfairly awarded to a U.S. military contractor, Scaled Composites? That they are contractors is undeniable, as is that the subortilal flight, as was fun to watch, was lifted by an aeroplane closely modelled on their own military reconnaisance products.
Awarding them the prize was a violation of their own conditions.
Dude, everybody knows the Igbo are the Ashkenazy of Africa. If only, like the Ashkenazy in the West, the Igbo were running the show in Africa.
Ike warned:
http://voxday.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-four-horsemen-of-bad-science.html
How much of the elite science is people faking results? I believe the efficiency of Europeans . Buy we live in the age where even though they are efficient they have been corrupted to waste time and resources and we need a reset to right this.
Seems pretty feasible, on a technical level. Rocket Lab actually already 3d prints its own engines, which I would guess would be the hardest part, but their Electron rocket is smaller, at least to the rocket on the drawing board.
Relativity’s Terran 1 will be designed to send 1250 kg to LEO for a price of $10 million, so it is still somewhat small scale. The hardest part might be the economics – in the long term there will probably be the most competition on that end, and launch isn’t a very big market compared to building satellites.
They are really only a start up at this point, but some of their founding engineers have experience. They haven’t built the launch sites yet, but their staff is growing. I think what they are doing is a good idea, but I’m not sure I’d invest. (though I do think they will launch)
It is a great video.
The people who actually created modern science appreciated mystery far more than the people who are into science today.
Its like IQ – its creators made far more modest claims about what it could do than people today.
The movement that grows up in the wake of a genius is always inferior to the original genius.
I know. This is why I strongly support CRISPR.
The universe is winner-takes-all. If we discuss modern history Anglos got the largest share. Frenchmen really tried very hard and just got a barely working model. Hell at least they still got some colonies even though almost all of them other than those taken by Anglos were in Africa. In the long run all they did demographically was settling Quebec, Louisiana etc. What did Germans get in the long run? Nothing. Spaniards? Mestizo Chile and Argentina I guess?
The same applies to race. Nobody could foresee that the bipartite manor & outbreeding turned out to be extremely helpful to Northwestern Europeans who basically created the modern world. Other Europeans could easily freeload on their achievements as whites. Middle Easterners really could if they can change their attitude and claim that they alre the ones defending the Caucasoid peoples from Negroid hordes (that is, they need someone like me to be their propagandists). Others obviously can’t completely freeload because freeloading is not a right. The Mandarin-statist model invented in China is just like the French model. It doesn’t work as well as the Hajnali one but at least it is a lot better than other alternatives.
What do I want to do? I want to contribute to (not freeload on) the cutting edge development of this century. In the long run there is no mercy for those who are not sufficiently competent. The standards one has to meet to survive will rapidly increase over time as the Age of AI approaches. It is either succeed or die. I will succeed or at least die trying.
And you have conveniently cherrypicked information, as you clowns are wont to do. In life, things are always fluid and multifaceted, not given to facile boneheaded pronouncements. Sure, the countries mentioned in the article have their problems, but they also have their virtues. They now have freedom and self-determination. People can go where they want, do what they want and try to reach their full potential without some racist pinheads trying to keep them down.
In your cherrypicking you will, of course, avoid stories like this like the plague:
Land reform is a Zimbabwe success story – it will be the basis for economic recovery under Mnangagwa
Zimbabwe produced more maize in 2017 than was ever grown by white farmers, who have repeatedly been praised for making the country into the breadbasket of Africa. Maize production in 2017 was 2.2m tonnes, the highest in two decades.
https://theconversation.com/land-reform-is-a-zimbabwe-success-story-it-will-be-the-basis-for-economic-recovery-under-mnangagwa-88205
Zimbabwe tobacco sales at all-time high
The sector was previously dominated by white farmers until they were forcibly evicted in a controversial government land seizure drive in 2000. Now tens of thousands of black farmers who benefited from the land reforms are growing tobacco.
Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board (TIMB) data showed that sales of the crop at local auctions had eclipsed the previous record of 236.9 million kg in 2000. Back then, 4,000 white farmers produced 85 percent of the crop.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-tobacco/zimbabwe-tobacco-sales-at-all-time-high-could-ease-dollar-crunch-idUSKBN1KD1PK
So taking land from thieves and giving the land back to its rightful owners works. Naturally, being a white supremacist you had convinced yourself that black people cannot farm or husband land. And you would rather have these black people under the heels of white fat cats who owned parcels of stolen land the size of small cities. But all of that is no more.
Nothing wrong with Russia enforcing its immigration laws. African countries do the same:
Kenyan police detain another Chinese journalist as part of immigration crackdown
Kenya last month began hunting down and arresting those illegally in the country after holding a 60-day exercise in which every foreigner was required to revalidate their permits.
https://www.hongkongfp.com/2018/09/07/kenyan-police-detain-another-chinese-journalist-part-immigration-crackdown/
I know this comes as a big shock to you, but just as some Africans seek their fortunes and greener pastures elsewhere, non-Africans also seek the same things in Africa and often reside in African countries illegally.
Well, dummy, that pales in comparison to French misbehavior and exploitation in Africa. France is trying, by hook or by crook, to hang on to its former African colonies in a sort of colonialism by other means. These countries are enjoined to adopt the French language, which is useless in the international arena. Moreover, all the African countries in the CFA Franc zone, who ostensibly are sovereign and independent but actually are not, are the most undeveloped, underperforming and backward countries in Africa.
Protests mount against Africa’s ‘colonial’ CFA currency
The CFA franc is facing growing opposition in parts of West and central Africa. Critics say the common currency has hampered the region’s economic growth while France profits.
https://www.dw.com/cda/en/protests-mount-against-africas-colonial-cfa-currency/a-40640904
So shut your stinking mouth about Africans in France. First work to get the French out of Africa, then you might have a leg to stand on.
As someone pretty conversant with Russian history and culture, it saddens me that an idiot like Anatoly Karlin is trying to align Russia with this legacy of white supremacy and colonial abuse. Thankfully, he is just a crackpot who certainly doesn’t speak for Russia or Russians. But what he fails to understand is that the brutal excesses of European colonialism (the slavery, the rape, the inhumane exploitation, the genocides, etc.) of which Russia was mostly blameless, form the fundamental principles of the white supremacy and white nationalism he wants to champion and put a Russian veneer on. If he were to succeed, that would make Russia culpable in some rather barbarous crimes against humanity that Russia wasn’t party to and didn’t benefit from.
Your stupidity is agonizing. No, Africans do not want to be next to white people. Like everyone else, they want to go where they can better actualize their potential. That’s why your own ancestors fled their European shitholes for America. Russia is certainly “white.” But many Africans see it as a stepping stone to a better situation in a Western European country. For many other Africans, the best situation for them is in their own African countries.
Once again, you and that other braindead moron Kekistani have failed to establish that this is an official Russian Federation initiative. It is not.
And what has happened since this so-called story broke? How many disgruntled white South African farmers were given parcels of land and residency in Russia? Not many, if any:
South Africa’s white far-right outcasts are finding friends on Facebook
Schlebusch himself admits that the plan to “establish a Boer colony in Russia somewhere” was a bit ambitious.
“We left with the idea that there is not really room for a big group of South Africans,” he says, adding, though, that the Russians “went to a lot of trouble to introduce us to the right people.”
https://www.dw.com/en/south-africas-white-far-right-outcasts-are-finding-friends-on-facebook/a-48634508
Btw, this is the website you need to link to prove official RF policy: http://en.kremlin.ru/
Whole story about “South African Boers will immigrate to Russia”, was comical fake news.
Actual story was that a rich South African husband and wife visited an area in Russia saying they were interested in buying land in Russia, because they like what they thought is the more conservative politics of Russia, which they said was more attractive than Australia/UK for them. Later on interviewed them, it seemed the couple were perhaps not going to come to Russia because of the difficulty of purchasing land.
However, media created an imaginary story around their visit, saying how thousands of South Africans want to immigrate to Russia. The reason was that, it is a way to boost local morale (to imagine civilized and wealthy Boers will come to the country) for the media.
Of course, South African Boers are one of the world’s most successful and intelligent nationalities (even the most successful African in America is one – Elon Musk). South Africa was a very successful country when Boers were predominant.
Any country would benefit from their immigration. But they will not likely immigrate to Russia (they prefer UK, Canada and Australia).
Notice that Musk has pretty much abandoned his Boer identity. He doesn’t want to be associated with or linked to what you describe as a “successful and intelligent” nationality.
No, it wasn’t a successful country. It was an utter failure that collapsed of its own absurdities. An apartheid system is by definition a failure. You have to wonder how intelligent the Boers really were if they could screw things up so royally.
Many South African Boer immigrants are an embarrassment to people like Musk. Which, again, is why Musk will not associate himself with anything tangentially connected to white South Africans. He may have even had coaching to get rid of his accent.
South African racism trends on Twitter down under
New Zealanders have sparked a debate on Twitter after complaining about white South Africans who bring their “racism” down under.
He recently tweeted: “In New Zealand, there’s only two types of people we will not tolerate. 1. Racists 2. White South Africans. Honestly those people are the f*cking worst! When are we marching and holding peaceful protests against those fuckers! Have you met one? The worst!”
https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/south-african-racism-trends-on-twitter-down-under-20180810
Of course, not all white South Africans are racists but a significant percentage of them are. No respectable country is going to want these people as immigrants. Immigration officers getting a whiff of Afrikaner white supremacy or racism will automatically reject their applications.
White South African family’s refugee bid rejected, accused of boosting case with ‘racist propaganda’
A white family from South Africa has had their refugee claim for asylum in Canada rejected, having been accused of submitting “white-supremacist hate literature” to bolster their claims of violence by the black majority in their homeland.
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/white-south-african-familys-refugee-bid-rejected-allegedly-boosted-case-with-white-supremacist-information
For interested readers, here are the maize production numbers:
https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=zw&commodity=corn&graph=production
As is obvious, agricultural production tends to be highly variable. Blacks haven’t reached the previous peak production levels yet, though the population has already grown significantly (maybe 50% higher than before taking the land from the white farmers), and technology has obviously advanced. The 2018 production number was already lower than in 2017 (the 2019 number is not yet a full year, so meaningless), but some five-year moving averages were better, and then you’d immediately notice that the agriculture still hasn’t recovered. (It’s perhaps better than in the noughties.)
So Okechukwu’s point that “land reform” was some kind of a success story is probably premature at best.
Obviously, the Boers are a very talented and successful nationality, which are desirable for countries around the world as immigrants.
Boers arrived in very inhospitable areas of Africa, and created a country which won more Nobel prizes in science than many European countries.
And moreover, by the 1970s, it looks like:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzteAu-8NbU
That’s not true. They are immigrating in large numbers to UK, Australia, Canada, Netherlands and USA (where Elon Musk, is perhaps the most successful African immigrant in America).
They have a high level of human capital and are often working as engineers, doctors, etc. (the idea they wanted to immigrate to Russia was a joke though).
Here’s a great article that details how it’s not just the existence of a “smart fraction” that determines national economic success, but the acceptance of nationalism among the population and political elite (national unity, purpose, maintenance of the dignity of the nation-state against competitors). This theory explains the rise of Britain before other European powers as well as the startling rise of Japan and the stagnation of China, until the current era that is. I would suggest anyone interested check it out. It’s illuminating to say the least. I also think its implications are far more ominous than either Anatoly or some of his readers might think in regards to immigration: sure, the smart fraction remains, but the animating spirit is reduced* due to a failing shared identity in the host population (and ruling elite), possibly leading to an inability to compete with a future, unified, and nationalist** China sometime in the future.
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2019/05/nationalisms-dividends/
This probably explains the failure of Russia to emerge as a global economic powerhouse, despite its relatively large population size and decent smart fraction in comparison to a country like France or Germany; India also. Putin rules Russia in the same way an emperor leading any multi-cultural entity has to – in no one group’s particular interest. This has the unfortunate side effect of reducing nationalism, the aninmus and identity the smart fractions needs to invent, invest, and to “go where no man has gone before.” India, like China, has a smart fraction but that country is far less dynamic than China because their country is also heavily divided by caste and religion. As an aside, South Korean exchange students I met back in the day were some of the most nationalist people I’ve ever encountered; that nation is certainly doing quite well for itself and has several very competitive companies on the global stage.
I also wonder if this might explain America’s sudden less-than-competitive reputation. GM has been chased out of the EU and Japan because they can’t compete. Japan’s Sony crushes their larger competition (America’s Microsoft) in the games market. Huawei is racing to first place in the global smartphone market. Asian train systems are far superior to anything found in the US. American music is also being surpassed globally in popularity (Eurovision contest is an example; Kpop is another). American movies are also not as good in terms of quality anymore now that diversity is all the rage. The animating spirit behind ever greater narrative and directorial innovation is gone because the demographic doing the innovating (white males) has been demoralized; it’s all consensus by politically correct, ethnic and gender diverse committee and focus groups now – money, money, money. Many California tech companies are also unprofitable (Twitter) and may go out of business within the next decade.
Compare that with China. That country is racing ahead in supercomputers, AI and internet technology. China will have world-class chip manufacturers within the next 15 years. China already manufactures much of the best green energy tech like photovoltaic cells and wind turbines. China will also have a competitive domestic airline manufacturer within the next decade. Their movie industry is increasingly sophisticated and will one day have global appeal. Meanwhile, the US isn’t much more than a financial middle man with military domination of fossil fuel resources at this point, or at least in comparison to China.
I think, for the most part, America seems competitive because it is larger, but the animating spirit is also much less due to ethnic diversity and anti-white male hate, so there are opportunities to out-compete American companies in limited circumstances, even for small countries. Having a corrupt, inept ruling class indoctrinated with outdated economic dogmas and an inefficient system that prevents change – along with a selfish, atomized Leftist population taught to fear nationalism and hate Europeans – will allow China to out-compete the United States in nearly every field and to reduce them to a second-rate power by mid-century. Of course, all of this was obvious to me decades ago but no one listened.
OT: Hungary solved its birthrate issue by promoting Christianity and national identity. Non-Christian, non-European immigration and a corrupt political class that rejects nationalism is literally killing Europe by sapping it of its animating spirit.
“While European nations languish with rapidly declining birthrates, Hungary stands out with rising marriage rates, falling abortions, and its highest birthrate in 20 years, Breitbart reports. Marriage is up by 43 percent since 2010, while divorce has dropped by 22.5 percent in the same period. This demographic turnaround has not been an accident, but the fruit of deliberate programs to promote marriage and the family while defending Hungary’s cultural identity and Christian roots.”
https://voiceofeurope.com/2019/05/nationalist-christian-hungary-is-thriving-rising-marriage-rates-falling-abortions-and-highest-birthrates-in-20-years/
*It’s reduced because nationalism depends upon a shared identity. Civic nationalism is a poor substitute for ethnic, cultural, and religious nationalism, but the United States will soon not even be able to muster that. It may end up resembling the Balkans.
**Occasionally, someone will claim to me that China isn’t nationalist. That’s not true. Sure, if you define nationalism as something akin to the Third Reich, perhaps China is not nationalist. But that’s not the right comparison. The Chinese people, in my experience, are very patriotic; many care deeply about their country’s position in the world and obsess over it while others still hold grievances over how China was treated by her rivals back when she was weak. You even occasionally hear appeals to nationalism from many public leaders. Didn’t Xi just call the Chinese to a “people’s war” against Donald Trump’s trade policies, or something to that effect?
The Cavendish Laboratory, when it was run by Ernest Rutherford, produced an enormous amount of world-shaking research. Every afternoon, most work that could be interrupted or left to go on, by itself for half an hour or so, was, and the researchers went and had tea together. (Tea and buns/sandwiches provided by the laboratory.) The one rule that Rutherford insisted on during tea, was that you sat next to people whose field was different to your own.
Hard to take him seriously as an authority on Africa. Obviously, he doesn’t live there. He’s Nigerian, probably an Igbo, and he didn’t even know that the civil war was a localized event – he thought it affected the whole nation. Hell, I knew that, and I have practically zero interest in the country, other than the fact that it is a ticking timebomb for the entire civilized world.
Plus, he said Mugabe was “brilliant.” Someone told Mugabe about Mao’s Mao suit, and he hurried to his tailor to demand that his face be plastered allover his wardrobe.
Pretty telling that even with the advent of GMO, the increased market of China, and a dearth of food regionally, Zimbabwe is not outproducing the old totals from the early ’80s.
If they regurgitate racist slogans and catchphrases they’re not getting into any country.
The Spanish Conquistadors became wildly successful not through genius or some innate talents, but through the gross and unrelenting exploitation of the Indians. That parallels the South Africa situation. How successful are white South Africans when they are not able to exploit other people? If you have virtually free labor to clean your house, take care of your landscaping, watch your kids and cook your meals, then you can certainly channel your energies toward becoming successful. If you have virtual slave labor to work many miles underground digging for gold in inhumane conditions, then you can certainly become wealthy as a society.
Even the immigrant Boers left SA with a great deal of capital, much like the Iranians that fled to Los Angeles after the fall of the Shah. The Iranians are even more successful than the Boers, having bought up most of Beverly Hills. Like the Boers, those Iranians have no special aptitudes or talents. They just had money, most of it ill-gotten.
Shorn of start-up capital, and in a country where it’s expensive to have your grass cut, where a live-in maid costs more per capita than whites earn in South Africa and where childcare is equally as expensive, how successful would white South Africans be? They certainly wouldn’t be able to replicate the lifestyles they had in South Africa. They would just be middle-class and lower middle-class for the most part. Nothing spectacular or extraordinary.
On the contrary, the Boers arrived in the most hospitable part of Africa. South Africa is in the southern temperate zone, meaning it has a congenial climate just like Europe’s, with four predictable seasons.
So did Lagos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdemD4kp-Oc
So are Nigerian immigrants.
At the time, Anatoly Karlin fell for the story. I was one of the few voices that cautioned skepticism.
That is good, but the original story to which that blog post refers to should also be linked. It’s very field dependent of course, but with biomedicine being such a kraken that swallows most of the funding, it’s very relevant. My field only has the first horseman in comment, with the last three being irrelevant for what I do, but we also (unfairly) have less money and less students despite in retrospect our research being highly important for general prosperity.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01307-2
“Yet many researchers persist in working in a way almost guaranteed not to deliver meaningful results. They ride with what I refer to as the four horsemen of the reproducibility apocalypse: publication bias, low statistical power, P-value hacking and HARKing (hypothesizing after results are known). My generation and the one before us have done little to rein these in.”
In liberal feminist America today – the “teacher’s pet” boys are shamed out of being aggressive. And the real intelligent boys who are a little edgy – get Ritalin. Their brilliance and self-assurance are drugged out of them.
You’re thinking, such as it is, lacks sophistication and nuance. The Nigerian civil war was actually a global event. Yeah, the entire country wasn’t engulfed in flames. So what? The entirety of Japan and Germany weren’t subject to war during WWII either. In both countries, children and other non-combatants were sent to the countryside because there was no bombing or fighting happening there. And Vietnam convulsed the United States even though the war was fought thousands of miles away.
You don’t come from where Mugabe came from and achieve what he achieved without being absolutely brilliant. Replace Mugabe’s genius with your meager intellectual level and nobody would have ever heard of him.
And by brilliant, I didn’t mean the old, doddering Robert Mugabe, I meant this guy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEi0WPaA0Uk
GMO was around during Rhodesia.
The Chinese market is irrelevant to this matter
As the article I posted indicates, Zimbabwe did outproduce Rhodesia in 2017, as impartial US sources have confirmed. You’re assuming that the website linked by Reiner Tor is credible because you like what it says.
Nevertheless, the most important factor in any business (farming especially) is capital and credit. It doesn’t matter how skilled a farmer is, he is helpless without those things. These lands that were seized from white farmers did not come with paperwork satisfactory to banks and other lenders. They were also the subject of controversy, which made financiers skittish. To make matters worse, Zim was placed under international sanctions. Even if the sanctions were directed at so-called Mugabe cronies, it still makes the whole of Zimbabwe toxic to banks and trading partners. So the Zim government had to find workarounds that would give these farmers access to capital, credit, equipment, seed, etc.
All the things you claim were to Zimbabwe’s benefit were actually swamped and overwhelmed by the factors noted above. It is actually a testament to the skill of the Zim government and the skill and perseverance of Zim farmers that they were able to overcome these difficulties.
Your source (which self-contradictorily proclaims “more maize in 2017 than was ever grown by white farmers” and then calls the number “the highest in two decades”; so which is it?) uses the exact same link I provided. Actually that’s how I found the link. (So of their two contradictory statements, the second was true: the highest number in two decades.)
There were sanctions against Rhodesia, too. The 1970s were still better than the period between “land reform” and 2017.
But give credit where it’s due: Mnangagwa’s agricultural reforms are working, and the country might catch up to what the white farmers achieved in the 1980s with inferior technology (there were no GMOs yet, for example) and a much smaller population.
While it maybe true that the native potential of the Chinese research may top out at the level or South Korea, well endowed research institutions will start to poach Western researchers just as the U.S. had done for decades. If you are a scientist, you go where there is money to do the research. As a result, it maybe possible for them to move beyond South Korea in their percapita numbers.
If only… birth rates have stalled. Even TFR is falling, it’s now at 1.44, which is nothing to write home about. This January the number of births was the lowest since 2013:
https://www.portfolio.hu/gazdasag/aratott-az-influenza-tovabb-csokkent-a-szuletesszam-magyarorszagon.318673.html
“If only… birth rates have stalled. Even TFR is falling, it’s now at 1.44”
Hungary’s TFR has risen to around 1.5 in 2018 from around 1.23 in 2011. This reverses a general downward trend see since at least the 1970s. Granted, 1.5 (1.49) is nothing to brag about but there has been a noticeable increase in less than a decade. 1.5 is higher than the average American white Leftist TFR anyway. If Hungary keeps this up, their TFR could be near break even sometime in the early 2030s; that’s not really so bad. The great thing about limiting democracy, which the Hungarian president has been denounced for, is that it allows for long-term planning. In most short-time oriented Western countries, a 0.26 increase in the TFR would be treated as a failure and the effort abandoned quickly, leading back to a declining TFR once again. Eventually, the Hungarian effort may pay off … as long as they stick with it. Hungary doesn’t need a 3.0 TFR, just somewhere around break even along with an effort to decrease their relatively high death rate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Hungary
Hungary also has one of the highest death rates in the world (tied with Zimbabwe and Burundi) at 28th place, so that probably doesn’t help their population size, but that can be changed as well in time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_mortality_rate
TFR has been below replacement since 1958, except for the years 1975-77, when it briefly grew higher.
It’s not dramatically different from our neighbors, and neither are the trends. Emigration of the population to Western Europe means a relatively fast decline, which leads to higher rates of immigration. For example from Ukraine.
The high death rate is the result of the inverted population pyramid, we have too many old people dying of age. (Though the relative neglect of healthcare under Orbán and even previous administrations results in a somewhat higher death rate, which could be fixed. )
There’s nothing contradictory about the statement given that land reform began in 1980 — going at a snail’s pace and not accomplishing much initially. There were post-land reform yields that were larger than any harvest under Rhodesia. So technically, the statement is correct.
This is from the USDA:
Zimbabwe corn production seen soaring in 2017-18
WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — The corn crop in Zimbabwe is forecast to soar more than 300% from the 2016-17 marketing year crop of 512,000 tonnes, increasing to approximately 2.2 million tonnes in 2017-18, according to a July 26 Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
This is not the largest yield after liberation and land reform, but it’s one of the largest yields in the entire history of the country from Rhodesia through Zimbabwe.
Not really. There were some minor sanctions on some consumer items that Rhodesia could bust via South Africa or Portugal, the occupiers of Mozambique. There were no financial sanctions. The US wasn’t really engaged. Moreover,
The Failure of Sanctions Against Rhodesia
Externally, a number of states even extended their trade with Rhodesia rather than comply with the UN ban. In addition to South Africa and Portugal, who had an ideological stake in violating the UN request, France, Iran, Japan and West Germany all increased trade in 1967 with Rhodesia.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/4184863?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
Back when “sanctions” were placed on Rhodesia, no country was as powerful as the United States is today, including the United States. There was multi-polarity in the world. Today, if the US places sanctions on a country like it did to Zimbabwe, that country basically becomes a pariah. Banks won’t touch their business and companies won’t either. However, back in the 60’s and 70’s no one cared about breaking UN and UK sanctions against Rhodesia. Those were two feckless and impotent entities. But today, every country, every company and every financial institution on earth is deathly afraid of violating US sanctions. It’s why Russian companies won’t do business in Crimea. So your attempt to equate the two situations is absurd.
1980-1990 was better than 1970-1980.
The white farmers sat on their asses for the most part. They didn’t do any actual work. They took advantage of a system akin to slavery or serfdom. This is obviously something the black farmers can’t/won’t do. The antebellum South produced a lot of corn too. But their overall unfair advantage in competition with free labor was one of the triggers of the civil war.
Rhodesian farmers did not have inferior technology. The big white commercial farms were broken up into small holdings. The black farmers neither need nor can afford advanced technology:
http://ipsnews.net/pictures/20080819_ZimFarmers_HighRes.jpg
https://www.abc.net.au/news/image/9392410-3×2-940×627.png
This is farming like it was done in biblical times.
I might give a more detailed answer later, but in the meantime here’s an article I just bumped into:
https://bit.ly/2VRUJ3k
Movement of “total fertility rate” isn’t a very accurate instrument for individual years. It’s built into its design that it will go up and down in waves – these waves can be noise to the extent of measuring actual fertility rates (although the waves can be interesting to know the birthrates and timing), as accuracy the instrument requires perfect consistency of interyear collective behaviour.
Inversely, “total fertility rate” can be useful for a different purpose than its design, i.e. its waves can show inconsistency of collective behaviour.
In Russia, for example, the 1990s, there a fall in total fertility rates which created panic at the time for less knowledgeable politicians and journalist – but we now know that change of actual fertility rates has been relatively small for women born since the 1950s years.
https://i.imgur.com/AjfZKxw.jpg?1
When people are excited about movements in individual years, its a sign they do not understand the instrument usually.
Hungary is interesting though, as you imply, because has been one of the most consistent and unchanging fertility rates, when looking at the completed rates, at the below replacement level.
Hungary is an example where there is “no apocalypse” and everything seems very stable – it should be not too different for government to manage this.
https://i.imgur.com/3ShLAn5.jpg
Orban is using financial incentives to try to increase the birth rates.
These policies can be understood as usually a symptom of low fertility countries.
Evidence of effects of government financial incentives on fertility rates (which is what will determine the final population quantity), implies that it has a very limited impact on eventual fertility rates, but can more modify timing of births. This is just distorting the timing. The positive effect really, is to reduce poverty rates.
Hungary’s probably quite interesting though, because they’ve had very low fertility rates for decades, and at the same time the country is actually probably in its happiest and most successful epoch now for a century.
Hungary also has a relatively low age of birth, which means it will probably operate their potential to slow the rate of natural population decline as the age of birth raises in the next years (as birth ages increase at below replacement levels, the rate of population decline dramatically falls due to increased interval spacing between generations).
It’s not necessarily apocalypse when people have less children than replacement – this has happened in Hungary for generations. But there are good and bad responses (the bad response is when politicians feel they have to boost the maintain constant population size, and that immigration is how they will achieve this – this is actually one way Putin has been speaking; while the good response is shown by Japan, where instead of immigration, they talk more intelligently about just increasing automation in areas where the workforce size is declining).
It is true that economic level often does not reflect human capital level of the country or its leadership.
South Africa was a significantly extractive economy, based on natural resources, which is similar to the situation in Nigeria.
Wealth of South Africa is not necessarily evidence of Boer achievement, by itself.
However, there are clearly indications of higher human capital level of Boers of South Africa. South Africa won Nobel prizes in science, had a successful army, modern infrastructure, etc.
In addition, the success and desirability of South African Boers as immigrants, is famous in countries like the Australia, UK and USA, as they are often highly educated professionals.
Another potential indication – in the era when South Africa had Boer leadership, the country (although unequal between races) did not have the same braindrain problems of today, or mass crime (crime rates in South Africa achieved their peak in the 1990s, after the end of the Boer leadership of its country).
Wealth in Nigeria is primarily from oil, and rich Nigerians quickly move a lot of the money overseas, into London – and their children flood into the Western boarding schools.
We can see that children of wealthy Nigerians, can afford to be generally charming, educated and polite, and they look like they live no differently – for good or for bad – than the richest European classes. On the other hand, life of ordinary Nigerians, will be very different, and we can see its economic level is nowhere comparable to even South Africa in per person terms.
The supposedly high cost of living in Japan is a myth. Occasionally you see oddities like a cantaloupe retailing for the equivalent of $80 but food is for the most part reasonable. Real estate is expensive on a per square foot basis but there is no Japanese desire for large American-style living spaces: my brother rents a 1-bedroom apartment in a Tokyo suburb within walking distance of the subway and pays ~$500/month, and that is in Japan’s most densely-populated and wealthiest city. More importantly, Japan is–compared to almost every other country on Earth–very egalitarian and homogeneous. There are no ghettos or bad neighborhoods filled with thieves and drug addicts like you have in the US or Russia, and thus there are no hidden costs or premiums you have to pay to live in a civilized part of town. Everything is civilized.
I understand you have a pathological desire to denigrate all countries that are not Russia, but please acquaint yourself with reality (as opposed to vapid cliches) before you make your next proclamation.
There are lots of evidence that cultural decline in western societies is harming science more than Karlin’s numbers are suggesting because these fine results are offspring of post WW2 generation’s hunger for knowledge. However more and more professors have found general decline of mathematical and physics skills among millenial students. Younger generation doesn’t have that old hunger of knowledge as that born in 1940’s and 1950’s. The grim reality will march especially when scientists of post WW2 have died out. Our teenagers are not as smart as we have hoped.
Where exactly did you get that? If that reflects the level of your comprehension, arguing with you is pointless.
Still, I respond because normal open-minded people read this thread.
I never lived in Japan. My comment is based on the experience of visiting Japan for more than two weeks. I’ve seen tomatoes and persimmons priced at $3-5 apiece. Yes, both were much tastier than what you find in the US, but the prices are ridiculous. What’s more, boxed lunches (which a lot of locals buy, and I also tried for the experience) sold at every train station for $7 and more, are way overpriced, considering that mostly they consist of rice, with very little meat/fish and pickled something plant-like (not sure what it is, but certainly not pickles, or tomatoes, or something else recognizable by a Westerner) that adds a bit of taste to that rice. The fact that Japanese women wear virtually no jewelry also adds to the impression that most people live hand-to-mouth (that could be cultural, though).
However, I do not intend to denigrate Japan (or any other country, for that matter). Japan has a lot of very positive things. First, the people are amazingly polite and helpful (at least those who speak enough English; many taxi drivers don’t, and they tell you so straight away, and don’t take you). People are incredibly organized. At train stations the position of the first person in line for each type of train (they have several kinds of Shinkansen, high-speed trains) is marked by feet outlines, and Japanese form lines exactly as prescribed. Unlike Americans, Russians, most Europeans, Koreans, or Chinese, Japanese don’t cross streets on red. They murmur something disapproving when you do. On many intersections they have pedestrian crossings not only across streets, but also diagonal, which is very considerate of them. Japanese trains run amazingly on time (the only other country where trains run strictly on schedule is Switzerland; a myth about Germans being on time is just that, a myth, although their public transportation runs much closer to schedule than anybody else’s in Europe, not to mention the US). The food in Japan has real taste (unlike the food in the US), their wine is surprisingly good (I didn’t even know that they make wine). The food in Japanese restaurants is good and priced more reasonably than fruits and veggies in stores and markets, but it does not include fruits and veggies.
There are seedier areas in Japanese cities, although never as bad as in the US. However, most residential areas look sad, with small houses and ugly profusion of power/phone/possibly other lines on poles in every street. Makes one understand why they go to such lengths to see something beautiful, like blooming sakura. The crime in Japan seems non-existent, judging by the behavior of the people.
So, overall Japan is quite nice, it has no fewer selling points than any country. But it certainly is not as prosperous as some propagandists would like us to believe.
Based on my US experience, I would disagree that it is an issue of smarts. It is an issue of priorities. Most educated Americans go where the pay is higher, which certainly excludes research. Not because they are dumber, but because the culture teaches them that they must be greedier. It is rare to encounter an American undergrad willing to volunteer in the lab. At my university most volunteers are Chinese, Korean, Indian, etc. undergrads (likely they are US citizens, but certainly not culturally Americans).
“TFR has been below replacement since 1958, except for the years 1975-77, when it briefly grew higher.”
Which is irrelevant in the context of the comment. Hungary’s efforts to increased TFR have worked as they are now increasing again.
“It’s not dramatically different from our neighbors, and neither are the trends.”
The TFR of Hungary has increased since 2011 while it has decreased in the United States and most other Western industrialized nations over that same time period, so the trend is not the same. It is also not correct to compare the current year Hungarian TFR to neighboring countries because that doesn’t account for the previous trend and reversal. Better measures are 1) a comparison with the previous trend line in Hungary before the start of the effort to increase TFR 2) the long-term trend of Hungarian TFR in comparison to other neighboring countries which have not undertaken similar measures.
Movement of “total fertility rate” is not accurate for measuring short-term trends, unless you expect perfect consistency of collective behaviour across different cohorts. It is part of its design that it will move up and down in waves, if there are any changing trends in timing of births.
So small trends of a few years upwards or downwards are often not notable, as it is partly just natural quivering of the line that is produced by failure of the measuring instrument itself.
General of other countries (at least Russia), is that financial incentives for “pro-natality” are unlikely to effect actual fertility rate so much as timing of births. Main positive effect of the policy is to reduce poverty rate.
Looking at completed fertility rates you can see Hungary has been simply stabilized in the completed cohorts. The completed cohorts (all we know for sure) have been above 1,75 at least.
https://i.imgur.com/3ShLAn5.jpg
“Well endowed research institutions will start to poach Western researchers just as the U.S. had done for decades. If you are a scientist, you go where there is money to do the research. As a result, it maybe possible for them to move beyond South Korea in their percapita numbers.”
True. There will be a reverse brain drain at some point. Peter Woit has complained about this (scientists patronizing authoritarian regimes), but it won’t make any difference in the end. Intellectuals don’t really have the principles they claim they do. If China builds the world’s largest particle accelerator, expect the scientific community to migrate there. For example, here’s Lisa Randall’s speech before Chinese company Tencent (Kip Thorne and others have also gone to this conference): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJc_OlbxKm0
These kinds of people are more than happy to virtue signal against white, working-class conservatives but have absolutely no problem also patronizing an authoritarian regime that for years enforced a one-child policy with the threat of forced abortions. China also has reeducation camps for dissidents. Aside: Lisa Randall denounced Larry Summers, former Harvard president, for suggesting in an off-the-cuff comment that maybe gender differences explain the lopsided difference seen in male to female ratio of physics students, IIRC. That’s actually well-accepted in Chinese culture (and it just so happens to be true, too). None of that stopped her from giving the speech though, did it?
He should have changed his name to Dinhberg.
Japan is a small rocky island largely unsuitable for agriculture, so they do have to import certain things by boat/plane, and as a result those things are expensive. $7 for a takeaway meal is hardly unreasonable; portion sizes are relatively small, but so are the Japanese themselves, so it works out (other industrialized countries could take lessons from Japan here). Buildings are indeed generally unappealing, partially due to strict earthquake-related building codes and partially due to the utilitarian Japanese view of buildings (not unreasonable when you live on an island beset by building-destroying earthquakes and tsunamis).
Prosperity is of course in the eye of the beholder: Japan has few natural resources but in the human dimension it is probably the wealthiest country in the world. Birth rate is an issue but I would gladly take that problem (which is also a growing problem in every industrialized except maybe Israel) if it meant not having to deal with troublesome unassimilated anti-social religious and ethnic minorities. Put another way, if it were possible to buy “futures” in a country, Japan would be #1 on my list.
This is good to know, thank you, Dmitry.
But if the South African whites prefer formerly-Great formerly-Britain, they must not be paying any attention to the current reality, and the trajectory, of that nascent Islamic State.
For all its problems, Russia looks to have a better chance at maintaining a relatively civilized, orderly, safe, predominantly European, somewhat-free society than the UK, merely twenty years down the road. The UK continues to change for the worse, and fairly quickly at that.
As for Australia, it is increasingly Indian and Chinese in recent years, but I can see why the South African whites would prefer Australia over Russia nonetheless, at least for the near future.
As for Canada, they’d be able to speak English (I’m assuming they know English and not just Afrikaans) and there certainly is plenty of open land, but it is utterly PC and actively working towards the marginalization and impoverishment of its own core white population.
I live in Los Angeles and bro, we will take as many Boer immigrants as you can spare! ASAP.
Yes, unfortunately, I expect to see some of the brightest, most talented scientists, engineers, genetic researchers, etc., from the USA and Europe start going to CHINA for university, internships, research positions, and corporate jobs.
This strong expectation is one of the reason my wife and I have our children learning Mandarin from a very early age. Preparing them for the world as it is becoming, not as we would like it to be.
Makes me like them better.
You know the big commercial campaign to cultivate the false tradition of giving diamond engagement rings? (equating diamonds with love) Well, the same people tried that in Japan and, feeling greedy, they even added a month onto the amount of time a guy was supposed to slave to buy it. But the Japs – God bless them! – didn’t bite.
There was a joke in the USSR in the 1980-s that optimists are learning English, pessimists Mandarin, while realists are learning Kalashnikov automatic rifle. You seem to be a pessimist.
That was smart of them. Japanese are smart in many ways, but too easy to lead in others.
Japan has a lot of non-rocky parts perfectly suitable for agriculture. You see it riding Shinkansen even between Tokyo and Hiroshima, not to mention the North and Hokkaido with ridiculously low population density. It’s likely just a tradition of growing rice whenever you can grow something.
They don’t seem to have a consistent utilitarian attitude to buildings: a lot of palaces and temples are beautiful, and virtually all of them have large verdant grounds and artificial ponds. BTW, those ancient palaces and temples withstood a lot of earthquakes.
Yes, compared to the EU, and especially to the US, Japanese are slender. They are not necessarily small (there are lots of tall young people), but you don’t see bloated grossly fat people who can’t even walk properly, like in the rest of the West.
Still, I am not sure I’d choose Japan as the best future. In my view, too much discipline, too little thinking outside of the box. Then again, I am a scientist, so I am biased. But so far Japan avoided the most suicidal moves of Europe and the US: they did not welcome hordes of totally incompatible savages. That’s what they have in common with Russia and Eastern Europe. Maybe that’s why Russian literature is quite popular in Japan for many decades. Japanese movies and cartoons are also more popular in Russia than in the US or EU.
The main takeaway is that MOU’s are worthless. But I already knew that.
The future of the Western world is very dark. The population will become mixed racially and physically with Third World populations that will not only decrease the national IQ. Dumb people don’t know how to select good politicians, so they will select incompetent demagogues that will drain the public spending with inefficiencies and corruption, in the same way of what occurs in Brazil. This will decrease the funding for good research.
Unlike the Jew/WASP dominated worldview prevalent in the west, the modern Japanese certainly do not believe in ‘invade and invite’ which seems to be the primary driver of the economic engine of the US [with hardly any local manufacturing left, the munitions industry is what generates real local growth in many sectors that the gubmint cares about]
Geopolitics of the last two or three hundred years have given certain groups of humans HUGE economic advantages over others. So then naturally well-paid ‘fake science’ crops up to show that all this is genetically determined. The fact of the matter is that cruelty, cunning and heartlessness was — and is — at play. A human being with a clear mind can achieve anything — regardless of skin, hair or eye colour. Other arguments aim only to keep down the disadvantaged people. See: https://medium.com/dialogue-and-discourse/homo-implacatus-d0b0cb7f0433
The problem of course is that the globalist elites presume that people everywhere are exactly the same except for superficial skin color therefore they are completely interchangeable, just throw open the borders n let them flood in n they will magically become good law-abiding tax-paying American citizens, or British citizens, or Germans, etc.
Nothing could be further from the truth. If they would spend just a short time studying Anthropology, or history, they would quickly see how drastically human societies differ, n how stubborn their own cultural values are. Their mistaken assumptions will end up drowning the West.
IQ scores are dropping across the developed world.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576
There’s no credible evidence that Boers have a higher human capital level than anyone else. How many Boers have a higher human capital level than Robert F. Smith, the African-American billionaire who is paying off student loans at Morehouse College? Interestingly, were he in South Africa under Apartheid, he would be living in a shack somewhere and barely eeking out an existence. So whether or not someone is successful depends on a whole host of factors they may be independent of how smart or capable they actually are. That also applies to groups and countries.
It’s not really a valid comparison. South Africa’s gold and diamond mines produced wealth for about 4 million whites. On the other hand, Nigeria with nearly 200 million people produces 1.5 million barrels of oil on a good day. Based on current oil prices, and assuming the proceeds actually trickled down to the people, that amounts to about $0.45 a day for every Nigerian.
If we look at the distribution of land under the Apartheid-era Bantustan scheme, in which the 75% black population was crammed into 13% of the worst land, I think it’s fair to assume that the proceeds from South Africa’s metals and minerals were distributed along the same lines.
I assure you, the US immigration system doesn’t unfurl a red carpet for Boers. I suspect, neither does the UK. I’m not sure about Australia.
South Africa was a totalitarian police state in which even whites weren’t free to say, write and do the things they wanted to do. That sort of environment doesn’t so much cause a brain drain as it causes brain torpidity. And, of course, as a matter of ideology, and to maintain white control and privilege, the system was designed to throttle black intellectual achievement.
Under Apartheid, this guy would not be able to express his genius:
The genius from the townships
His mother dropped out of school to have him when she was 18. He went to school in the townships, where his family lived in an RDP house. Today, 22-year-old Wandile Mabanga is writing his master’s dissertation in a field of quantum physics so specialised there are only two people in the world qualified enough to supervise him
https://www.brandsouthafrica.com/play-your-part-category/play-your-part-news/other-news/the-genius-from-the-townships
Or this guy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UR5O7AKva9A
Regarding crime, I doubt they were keeping accurate records under Apartheid. There was state-sponsored terrorism and state-sponsored death squads. Those are crimes, no? Even the often out of control crime today is a direct by-product of the Apartheid system. Overcrowded and poverty-stricken townships are going to be breeding grounds for crime.
The well-off Nigerians you are seeing didn’t necessarily make their money in oil, although some did. There are a lot of wealthy Nigerians in and out of Nigeria who are not involved in the oil industry.
With a population mean IQ greater than 93 or so, the percentage of people with an IQ greater than 106 rises to about 19 percent. Smart fraction theory holds that when you get 20 to 30 percent of the population about a 105 IQ or above, you have critical mass to staff various office and supervisorial positions, as well as jobs like law enforcement management and the like, such that the dull quotidian work of a civilized society can happen with minimal corruption, work absenteeism, and incompetence. Anything below that and the fabric of civilization starts to fall apart, and the 105ers and above try to bail out in some way, like emigrating out of the country, so the fall off can indeed be dramatic.
Well I belong to the Brahmin community who have lot higher IQ than Ashkenaji Jews.For example Bengali Kulin Brahmins have won 2 major Nobel(including global phenomenon Rabindranath Tagore) from Calcutta with population only ~50,000.There was sir Upendranath Brahmachri who didn’t win.So 3 Nobel prize ~50,000 population is best in the world in terms of per capita.New York which is America’s greatest city has 38 Jews Nobel laureates with 1.7 Million.If We had 1.7 Million Kulin Brahmins in Calcutta,then we would have won perhaps 100 Nobel prizes.
Now lets talk about patents.America files ~880 patents per million population.Bengali Brahmins in USA with less than 10K population file more than 1000 patents every year.Which means Bengali Kulin Brahmins have IQ> 140,while average of America is only 98.
Dox Gay is a blithering idiot. And a fraud. Anyway I invite you to amuse yourself with this commentary on Dox’s mighty intellect: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6lO3xmrh4A
That would be smart and good if Japan were an independent entity. However, Japan remains occupied more than 70 years after WWII. It tries to save itself in view of impending crash of the occupying Empire, but its room for maneuver is limited. We’ll see how successful it is in ~10 years.
This really depends on the definition of death cults. What is breeding really for? Creating another Malthusian shithole where every single tech advance results in more humans while almost everyone is on the verge of starving to death?
“The idiot like Anatoly Karlin…”
— Anatoly Karlin is an exceptionally intelligent man whose very informative articles have been discussed on this forum. Who is “Okechukwu?” Nobody knows.
“Your stupidity is agonizing.”
— First, you are a bad-mannered villain. Second, you are on a wrong forum. Look for the like-minded people to enjoy yourself.
“Africans do not want to be next to white people.”
— Then what is your problem? Nobody forces Okechukwu et al to be next to white people.
Hahahaha. LMAO.
Okechukwu is my real birth name, though. Anatoly Karlin is a fake name. Even he’s not dumb enough to publish his junk under his real name.
Heal thyself. You’re a vicious cunt. You reap what you sow.
“Stop intruding on our echo-chamber with your reality. Waa! Waa! Waa! We hate reality. Go away. Waa! Waa! Waa!”
What you can’t seem to wrap your puny little brain around is that I will be next to whomever I choose.
“I will be next to whomever I choose.” “Africans do not want to be next to white people.”
— Then why are you whining?
You’re too dumb to understand the distinction. But I’m sure most 4 year olds will get it.
Where am I whining? You’re also too dumb to understand what constitutes whining.
You are abusive because of your intellectual limitations? History of poor interfamily relationships? Because you can?
It is impossible to take you seriously.
By the way, the pictured of biracial families that you have posted are truly beautiful. However, the prettiness of the pictures does not, and cannot, substitute scientific vigor of the research in human intelligence.
@Dmitry
Yes, economics has a lot to do with it: Japan has twenty Nobels in the last twenty years, while China has one. They are not twenty times smarter than the Chinese, or ten times smarter, or smarter at all: Historically, China has been far more innovative than Japan: paper, printing, movable type, gunpowder, rockets, the compass, cast iron, blast furnace, alcohol, glazed pottery, porcelain, deep drilling, rudder, crossbow, chain drive, escapement – these are all Chinese, not Japanese inventions. In fact, a European observer (can’t remember his name) in the early 20th century said that for all of Japan’s progress, they had never produced anything comparable to paper, gunpowder or the compass.
Now, of course, it is Japan that is doing the innovating, not China (at least not yet). But this could be largely due to the fact that doing cutting-edge science takes money and developed institutions. China is richer than it used to be, but not nearly as rich per capita as Japan, and it hasn’t been rich long enough to build worthy research institutions. And it is hard to produce top science in a developing country: Not only do your researchers lack the resources to conduct research, hire top supportive lab staff, etc. but your most promising young people are not likely to enter science at all. Natural science, after all, is not lucrative. Better to go into business or at least the professions, where even a paltry salaryman’s winnings can support an entire extended family.
By the way, Japan’s Nobel total since 2000 puts it on par with the U.S., per capita, if you subtract the dozens of Nobels won by foreign scientists in the U.S. (mostly from Europe, which increasingly cannot compete with U.S. research dollars). Japan’s performance is all the more impressive given that, historically at least, government and industry has eschewed funding for natural sciences, in favor of applied fields likely to yield tangible products that will add to GDP. This has been their habit ever since the immediate post-war period when productivity and GDP were everything, a habit that they are only beginning to shake. China is poorer and less developed than Japan, so it would be wise for them to focus on the science that is likely to yield immediate results that will aid development. Just like Japan did 60, 70 years ago.