I am not going to read Yglesias’ book. But the one thing I will say for the idea of One Billion Americans is that it’s likely the only way, even theoretically, that the US can remain competitive with China in later 21 century, as it translates its high human capital into per capita convergence and subsequent absolute predominance, given the vast population differential. (Well, that, or a massive preemptive nuclear strike). That’s even accounting for the belt of allies the US is building up including Japan, Australia, and India. Even with the latter two, it’s just a third of the Chinese population (500 million to 1.4 billion)… India tips the scale, but it’s India. Not a serious consideration until well into the second half of this century.
It is thus reasonable for non-HBD aware (publicly, at any rate – Yglesias has given off hints of a higher power level) civic nationalists who prioritize US global hegemony over ethno-cultural particularism, such as Yglesias on the left and Lyman Stone on the right, to advocate the US to once again triple its population this century, just as it did in the last.
Even from an HBD perspective, a “mulatto gamer underclass” managed by a higher IQ “autistic Jew-Asian elite” may remain quite competitive with China. This is, after all, why India isn’t a total write-off. A cognitive elite can work wonders even with an <85 IQ population. But the problem with this menaquinonian “vision” is that Latin America has dried up as a demographic reservoir everywhere apart from some impoverished Central American polities. But even they will go the way of Mexico before too long, and there’s not all that many Guatemalans or Nicaraguans in absolute terms. “The Wall” is essentially just belated political astroturf.
Any future mass wave of immigration that can fundamentally reformat American demographics can only come from one place in the world: Sub-Saharan Africa, whose population will quadruple to four billion by 2100. But unlike with Latinos, it’s an open question whether they’ll be positive value added even in absolute terms. They’ll surely add to total GDP in PPP terms, unless I suppose if the most radical automation visions come true and they become total economic deadweight. Virtually all measures relating to quality of life and civic health will plummet. Other metrics of power, such as military might or scientific productivity, will apart from economic scale also depend on the extent to which the US can control institutional rot. Not much chance of that in a democracy, as 2020 continues to powerfully demonstrate… might be just about feasible with a castizo futurist junta.
Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.
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https://media.tenor.com/images/9b370c2d6a6f48e77bba8140c5bf7541/tenor.gif
People dont seem to understand how fast african americans breed. Right now nobody knows how many blacks there are. My guess is 100-200 million in USA. If their population continues to explode you could end up with 500 million african americans without even resorting to immigration from africa.
I always figured that America would have a billion people by the end of the century because of high black and latino birthrates.
America will long be politically irrelevant when that happens. If productive americans are a small minority in NY and california — at some point it will just make more sense to relocate somewhere like poland,
On a more serious note I suspect South Asia will be the source region for the next great wave of immigration, not only to the United States but the entire Anglosphere. Far more likely than Sub Saharan Africa, for a number of reasons racial, geopolitical, linguistic, economic and cultural. Even if South Asia’s population stagnants eventually and begins to decline they’ll still continue to supply immigrants just as the Balkans continues to supply Western Europe.
I think the billion Americans isn’t a real proposal, even by Yglesias. But US can still gain ground relative to China (in terms of GDP — not quality of life, I’m not advocating this) by basically doing what it’s been doing — growing labor force by 5%/decade. This might require an uptick in immigration to offset continuing declines in TFR, but it can still be supplied largely by Asia and Latin America. It doesn’t require a horde of Africans to achieve.
Today China has over 4x the labor force of the US. But the size of its labor force peaked in 2016 while the US labor force continues to grow for the foreseeable future. The current year 2100 projections are for China to have less than 2x the population of the US (due almost entirely to China shrinking), and the ratio for labor force would presumably be even smaller due to China having a badly inverted population pyramid.
Yep, even an India that will stop growing will still have plenty of spare people to give. Perhaps this might even be true of China if there will be a sizable liberal/progressive element there who will want to escape the totalitarian rule of Xi Jinping. You gotta remember that even 5% of all Chinese is 70 million people–so, quite a lot in absolute terms! 10% of all Chinese is 140 million people, of course. For 5% and 10% of Indians, it’s even higher than 70 million and 140 million, respectively.
Anatoly, you forgot to include the EU here. The US and the EU combined would form quite a formidable Western bloc with a population of over half a billion. Include both the UK and Ukraine, and you would go even higher than that.
As long as the USA is far richer than Latin America, it can bring in millions of Latin Americans despite Latin America’s low fertility rate. Lots of Poles have been going to western Europe, and Ukrainians to Poland, after all.
The main problem for the USA would be to integrate and assimilate these Latinos as had been done to the Italians 120 years ago. It may not be possible due to different elite ideology, though that may change.
What is the point of saying something so obviously wrong?
https://piie.com/sites/default/files/styles/slimmed_natural/public/2018-11-27_piiechart_birth-rate.png?itok=Mo7vvcvq
https://ifstudies.org/ifs-admin/resources/fertilitydeclinesrace-w640.png
The only way for the US to remain competitive with China–absent, of course, your aforementioned preemptive nuclear strike–is ramp up eugenic fertility.
This is not all that hard to do from a policy perspective. There is after all some tax policy–less than 100% tax on singles and childless couples that gets you at the fertility you want from more intelligent and conscious men and women, and some welfare and criminal justice policy that suppresses the fertility of the screwups and criminals.
But … it a complete 100% turnaround from the current ruling Jewish minoritarian zeitgeist where
— white flyover country gentiles are “structurally racist” oppressively evil
— blacks are sacred
— homos and trannies all all the other LBGQWERTY flavors are sacred
— immigrants are holy
— illegals are extra special holy
— muslims are holy (except when talking about Israel)
and
— intelligent, or even semi-intelligent women are supposed to go to college, get useless BAs and have a “career”–either traditional “helping profession”, wasting their nurturing instinct on someone else’s kids or some mostly parasitic public sector boondoggle.
Slam closed immigration and make family formation and high fertility affordable for productive middle class men, married to intelligent, conscientious middle class women …
… and the fertility rebound among the productive classes could keep the US competitive with China for the foreseeable future.
I’d rather risk the Han using some superweapon.
The Koreans and Japanese have tried every tax incentive scheme conceivable, but nothing has moved the needle. Not even a little bit.
Besides, current Chinese TFR is around 1.7. Current TFR in the USA is 1.8. China isn’t at that much of a disadvantage, and, needless to say, they have a vastly larger population base to draw from. (Which means, among other things, that they can sustain dysgenic fertility trends longer than we can. That they have more children on the street in terms of absolute numbers. And so on.) The US would likely have to double its TFR if it wants to remain competitive with China, and that isn’t going to happen.
…Well, absent quite a lot of dysgenic immigration, that is.
Which is worse, the loss of dominance, or the loss of the historical American nation?
GDP is nothing. Its a ridiculous number.
Productivity and Intelligence are the real numbers to watch.
The Non-White IQ seems to be dropping, from low to lower.
The test scores of these people are abysmal.
They may as well be cattle as far as the 21st Century is concerned.
China isn’t handicapped by dysgenic breeding.
The Amerikwan Empire is now a failed state. Bankrupt both morally and fiscally.
Only a complete change from this dysgenic spiral will keep China in check.
Just a comment mostly on the geopolitics implied in the article re India.
India, geopolitically anyway, cannot be lumped with Japan and Australia as US “allies”. The former and much of Europe are more properly US vassals or satrapies (some more happily than others), hosting US troops and joining the US against whoever the latter targets. India is and is very likely to remain independent while cooperating with the US in areas of mutual interest.
The confusion seems to have arisen recently because of India’s conflict with China which coincides with the US’s own. The US conflict with China is one between an existing hegemon and a rising one. The conflict between India and China is of a different nature and cause – one certainly that the US is trying to take advantage of for its own ends, but one that is not due to India trying to “ally with the US” (if anything it’s the other way around).
For example India has good ties with Russia, which is under attack from the US and its vassals, and seeks to deepen them if anything while simultaneously increasing ties with the West. While India’s economic ties with Iran have suffered due to the threat of US sanctions, India continues to politically support Iran, another US “enemy”. Ditto with the likes of Cuba and Venezuela for example.
From a population viewpoint, projections show India overtaking China within 5 years – which will stop and even reverse while the country ages – and by 2020 the US will be fourth after Nigeria.
From an economic point of view, US post-war economic growth has relied heavily on immigrants and foreign trained knowledge. Key post-war technologies – from space to nuclear – were essentially German (thanks to Operation Paperclip). Soviet emigres contributed much in the sciences starting in the 90s. While Indians have not yet been prominent inventors/entrepreneurs, they currently remain core to the functioning of much of US technology and finance with CEOS and C-level executives and innumerable upper management and worker bees throughout Silicon Valley and Wall Street as anyone working there (I believe Karlin has) can attest. Indians are also key in academia and the medical profession and of course as small business entrepreneurs owning food franchises, convenience stores and the like across the US all of which makes Indian-Americans the richest demographic in the United States.
As for India itself, I’ll not comment directly on the HBD angle but to say a factor that impedes India’s growth is its vast diversity and politics. As Chinese commentators have noted – in why India will remain behind China in the foreseeable future – diversity is a drawback and to analyze India is like analyzing Europe. Nearly every state in India has its own language, mutually unintelligible script, cuisine, culture – that is in fact how the majority of states were organized. Within each state there are further divisions and an “Indian” can be categorized by State, Language, Religion, Caste, Sub-Caste (and smaller), Economic class at the least. While urbanization has erased or at the least diminished much of the differences save Economic Class – a hallmark of capitalism – it remains a powerful force even in urban areas let alone rural where it is dominant and drives feudalism. India’s political structure – which is based on the British parliamentary system – is thus fragmented among several parties and focused very much on identity politics and politicians who seek to maximize their wealth in their potentially brief time in power, which can be highly inefficient. The miracle of India is that it holds together and functions at all – and despite it all, India has managed to have something that Europe does not: a common currency and federally recognized capital and national army subordinate to civilian control. India, with the diversity of a Europe, functions federally like the United States (which meanwhile is falling prey to the worst effects of identity politics).
India, suffers from poor infrastructure (similar to Russia outside Moscow/Leningrad compared to Western and even Central Europe does, although of course far more advanced than India) and another recognized impediment to growth. Having a strong federal government that can plan and execute decade-long projects has thus been imperative. (Soon after India’s independence, given a nationally popular leader in Nehru, like Putin is in Russia, allowed great strides in immediate national projects such as becoming food independent – India has never suffered famine of the magnitudes common under the British for example – and even higher technologies like nuclear and space (with help from the Soviets).
It remains to be seen whether the current Make India Great nationalistic Government can recover from both COVID and the economic slump the country was already in pre-COVID to reap a vast potential (India has a median age of 27 and a relatively educated population that can pull the rest along).
They haven’t tried everything. They gave away $1000 to every person the country for COVID, which just goes to show there is a lot of slush money available they haven’t put toward the demographic problem.
Two solutions not tried yet:
(1) instead of focusing on getting more women to have kids, double down on the breeders. Some women want to have lots of kids. Focus on them.
(2) Simply commit to supporting all children. If you have a kid, you don’t have to worry about school expenses, medical costs, etc.
Then there’s the real issue of societal confidence. A little more jingoism might go a long way toward promoting births.
But in the end, sustaining your economy with continuous population growth is impossible. Japan needs to figure out how to get by with fewer people as it’s basically in a correction phase now.
Saving a sinking country by flooding it with Africans is like saving a sinking ship by drilling holes in the bottom to let the water drain out.
African-Africans are even more dysfunctional in modern societies than African-Americans – hybridization being the most obvious explanation. Aside from the aforementioned sub-85 IQ dalits and aboriginals in Australia and the Americas, there is no less modern-capable population on Earth, and Africans lead that pack as well.
White supremacy is not a thing but White separation is. As Buchanan cited in his book “A Republic Not an Empire,” an America newspaper once wrote in response to Kipling’s call to take up “the White Man’s burden” something to the effect of:
“We’ve taken up the White Man’s Burden, to Yellow, Black and Brown. Now kindly tell us Rudyard, how may we put it down.”
If the Chinese or Brahmin feel they can do a better job than Rome, London or Washington, they’re welcome to try and best of luck to them. I think Putin’s wise enough to steer Russia in a different direction and I hope that the present Zio-managed apparatchiks of muh “West” are scheduled for replacement on a timeline of a couple of decades.
A saner less wickedly ambitious world leadership would leave the less-adaptable races to find their own way to whatever they call forward on their own timeline and let Whites and other Ice Peoples do our thing.
But it’s not going to be that easy. We’ll end up having to do things the harder way, as always, continuing to demand that poodles marry pit-bulls, lambs bed down with lions and monkeys man their keyboards until Shakespeare happens.
You gotta look at the bright side of things. Somalis and Afghans can get you a really good deal on AK -47.
Also, while child soldiers do not have a stellar reputation, daycare is expensive, and a lot of parents would appreciate a Lords Resistance Army check point as an option to drop off the kids for a few days, or a military campaign.
🙂
“But the one thing I will say for the idea of One Billion Americans is that it’s likely the only way, even theoretically, that the US can remain competitive with China in later 21 century, as it translates its high human capital into per capita convergence and subsequent absolute predominance, given the vast population differential.”
I’m sorry, this is UTTER RUBBISH.
In the 19th century the United States had abundant resources and a moderate population and a low fertility rate. This combined to create the greatest industrial and military power the world had ever seen. Meanwhile, in China, a much more massive population of chronically malnourished peasants accomplished nothing at all, and China during this time was backwards and weak and pathetic.
And going back to China: under Mao the communists insisted that it was every woman’s duty to have six kids each (“Strength through numbers”). The famine that resulted from this policy nearly tore the country apart.
So after China went to a one-child policy (which would never have been needed without Mao’s previous 6-child policy), China gets incredibly powerful. Meanwhile in India, where people continue to breed like rodents, the country is weak and pathetic. Compare China and India: really, what country is on an upwards path, and what on a downwards one?
So turning the United States into another India, that’s going to counter China? How?
Compare Haiti with Switzerland. Pakistan with Japan. Mexico with Germany. Are you so certain that the path to national greatness, is for the average person to have as many children as possible without any concern for whether or not they can support them?
Sure, ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, God is on the side of the bigger battalions. But population growth cannot outpace the ability of a society to make the investments needed to support this larger population. “Forcing” population growth has, historically, been very profitable for the rich but a disaster for the average person and national power overall.
This is treating people like cattle, whose breeding should be controlled by the rich. The Americans won’t have enough children to suit the needs of the elites? Then they should be forced to have ‘enough’ children, or replaced by people who will. Because according to this utterly corrupt dogma, people are cattle, and their numbers should not be set by how many children the people themselves feel appropriate for given circumstances, but by the elites who of course know better than we do how many children we should have.
The only serious way the US could retain its position is by making a deal with Europe and build a closed market for western goods only. Judging by the way the US is currently treating its allies in Europe , the future doesnt look quite bright .India will never be a real ally to the US , or only on the China issue. But India has always had its own agenda.
India’s population is around 1.3 billion vs. China’s 1.4 billion.
US population is 330 million.
Japan’s population is 130 million.
Australia is 25 million.
So currently US+Japan+Australia+India is close to 1.8 billion. It’s already larger than China’s population.
And the US and India are expected to continue growing in population, while China is expected to stabilize or fall. India is expected to surpass China soon.
Easy. Continually pare down Entitlements in the USA by a few billion every year. Then you get your Eugenic Fertility.
Recurring bouts of Bubonic Plague made Europe pretty wealthy per Capita:
https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty_pages/nico.v/Research/Horsemen_REStud.pdf
Excuse me while I throw up.
https://twitter.com/Niyogin1/status/1303514873939128320?s=20
Lol wz better under Zoro/Hinduism huh?
…but if the goal is for America to have 1 billion people in order to compete with China, wouldn’t the fastest way to achieve this is for the US to invade and incorporate into America large parts of the third world? If that is the end goal, “liberal imperialism” is the only logical conclusion
History has not ended; it must return until every last gay is free and Afro-America shines as its final promise of Wakanda as shown in the ancient myth of Black Panther.
I was going to buy the book and read it. But I changed my mind.
The idea of pushing for a U.S. population of 1 billion (and presumably 100 million for Canada) is shear lunacy, and that’s without even considering the life-style consequences of such a population. What do you think the cost will be to go on beach holiday to the Caribbean or Hawaii, or how crowded Yellowstone would be in the summer if we had a population of 1 billion?
This issues make me wonder if Yglesias even right in the head.
China has a little more than 2/3 of America’s GDP in 2020. It’s possible and likely that China’s GDP will grow to equal America’s GDP before or in the 2030s.
However, China’s GDP per capita is only 16% of America’s per capita. That is, GDP of 1 American citizen is equal to 6,25 Chinese citizens.
I’m no economist, but it’s surely very unlikely (excluding some kind of wars, apocalyptic disaster, or communist revolutions) that China will have per capita GDP convergence with USA before we are old men.
China is just approaching the bottom of the middle income trap. I don’t think they will multiply their GDP by more than 6,25 (“more than” – as by then America will be higher) anytime soon, unless there will be some amazing technology revolution that will make us all rich.
–
GDP per capita differences, approximate more to income differences, while GDP differences could be useful for understanding country’s military expenditure or size of its total market. The main incentive for mass immigration flows, are differences of income, so GDP per capita differences are the relevant statistic.
In terms of the immigration flow, this will continue to be happening from China to USA, even after China’s GDP grows to equal that of USA (as there will still be a huge difference in individual incomes).
I’m not sure. Skimming Forbes website (without checking carefully), it only looks like around 6 East Asian people in the top 400 richest Americans. Maybe 13 (non-Middle Eastern) Asian people there in total ?
East Asians are maybe 1,5% of the richest 400 Americans?.
Asians seem very underrepresented amongst the wealthiest 400 people, relative to their population in America (where they are over 6-7%), and in particular East Asians are underrepresented in this group.
https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/
There’s even a overrepresentation of Muslim billionaires relative to population in Russia. But in America the (non-Middle Eastern) Asian races are surprisingly underrepresented in the American billionaires list.
Incentive from the immigrants’ point of view, is income differences. From the incentive point of view, American could absorb hundreds of millions of people from around the world, not only from Africa, but equally from countries like China, Europe, and Asia which have much lower incomes than America.
However, even if we see country’s having a maximalist view of immigration as a way to increase economic power, I think most citizens will prefect immigration that would boost GDP per capita, rather than just GDP.
For boosting the per capita income of a country, the immigration will probably be more successful if it focuses only on skilled workers in specific industries, that will raise the countries’ per capita income.
The immigration system of developed countries like America, is probably better to be extremely selective and focus on improving their advantage in high income industries, rather than worrying about trying to maintain the same (total) GDP as much more populous countries like China and India.
I do wonder if these Latin Americans are going to have an average IQ slightly below Italian-Americans, though. After all, Latin Americans do on average have a sizable amount of Native American (and sometimes Sub-Saharan African as well) ancestry. Italian-Americans don’t, to my knowledge.
17th-19th century China was ruled by a group of 400,000 or so rapacious steppe warriors and were preoccupied with putting a massive Han Chinese revolt every 50 or so years. As that Manchu military elite softened and phased into becoming Imperial apparatchiks, the Empire collapsed. Sound familiar?
A lot of the immigrants to America, who came from the hinterlands of Europe in late 19th century and early 20th century, were illiterate and even pre-industrial peasants, that were not exactly any kind of idealized immigrants. A lot of the immigrants to America were also outcasts and criminals, including the famous Sicilian mafia which has moved to New York. However, America of that time, had a more confident anglosaxon monoculture, and even in cities like New York there seems to be successful assimilation of these immigrants to an American identity by the Second World War (at least as it is popularly presented in the films).
In terms of their education level, the skilled Indian and Chinese immigrants (who are often very educated and modernized people relative to their countries) should probably be easier for America to assimilate, than the millions of illiterate peasants who had flooded the country of the early 20th century from then least developed parts of Europe.
But today there are likely also less pressure for immigrants to assimilate, and with modern transport and communications, immigrants can feel like they never fully have to plant feet in the new country.
Focus on them how? What could be done that isn’t already being done?
Besides, how many of these breeders do you think there are? If they’re 2% of the fertile female population — or even as much as 5% , which I consider highly unlikely — it should be clear that focusing on them won’t make much of a difference in the near term. Perhaps three generations hence…
Korea has tried this. It’s not going well.
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20180305000207
Despite ever more generous allowances, birthrates keep dropping. And families, instead of simply accepting the free aid, appear excessively concerned with “status” — so they work hard to send their children to expensive private kindergartens.
Financial incentives and tax breaks have been tried, and are still being tried, and there is zero evidence that they work at all — to any extent.
Birthrates were already at historic lows in 2019: https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2020&no=878566
And have just now dropped to catastrophic levels: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200826002500320
Despite all efforts.
I don’t think that this is a problem that can be solved with tax credits. Modern man has simply decided that the effort of raising children is not worth the reward.
No way. I guarantee you fertility rates would shoot up if they gave a free house to any couple upon birth of their third child.
But “muh property values, muh gdp”, so not a chance in hell.
So it’s really “every scheme conceivable except the ones that disturb our financial markets”, which defeats the purpose.
The problem is, the majority of Indians are 82 IQ which is even worse than Africans. The higher IQ Indians are having the same problem other high IQ people are having throughout the world which is low birth rates.
If you assume that adding Hispanics would be good/neutral for the west and Africans would be bad. I think the worst case scenario would be the west taking on several hundred million low IQ Indians.
At least blacks give us good music and good sports. What would adding millions of low IQ Indians add to the west?
Indians inability to work together and function as a nation would not change when they move to the west. They would just bring their caste system along with them and accelerate all of the worst trends we see in the west.
No thanks.
There are examples of incentives that work: Japan was able to temporarily regain replacement tfr in one town, largely by promoting agriculture benefits. Amd Hungary’s program has been a success.
Korean obsession with status is an outlier even among status chasing East Asians. Its not a good comparison.
GDP is a flawed metric to use.
What keeps the American economy wealthy, and thus a high per capita GDP, is the strong dollar.
If the dollar sinks and the Chinese currency rises, you can see huge swings in per capita wealth as the Chinese buying power increases.
Thanks, I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.
FWIW, I wasn’t disputing that the US would have much trouble assimilating and integrating skilled Indians and Chinese. I was simply wondering whether the US’s assimilation and integration of Hispanics will be as successful as that of Italians in the past.
Thomas Friedman who is derided as the utmost mainstream columnist in international political economy also gives off hints. In one of his columns in January 2010 he doubts James Chanos who loudly announced in 2009 a bet against the Chinese economy on the thesis it was Dubai x 1000 on the cusp of collapse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/13/opinion/13friedman.html
Some Jews, like this evil demonic Yglesias, just wants the rest of humanity to be slaves to them. So of course they want one billion “Americans”, and of course they don’t mean white European-Americans. They mean a mulatto-mestizo mixed-race ugly and violent mass.
Jesus! Just look at Latin America. Mexico, Guatemala, Brazil. That’s what “successful assimilation” of “Hispanics” (mestizos) means. A small white and Jewish elite at the top, a small white-ish middle-class, and the rest just desperate masses living in squalor, working as servants or if not going to the drug industry and robbing and raping.
Please note also that the most livable countries there (Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Southern Brazil) had a large immigrant population of Italian and Germanic origin, which improved them a bit.
Population size and dominance are not correlated. Small, highly capable populations often punch above their weight in terms of military strength, cultural production and technology while giants like India or SSA have little to show for their enormous population.
Absolutely true. California is around 55% white/Asian/Indian + mixed race combo of the groups. Quality of life might in California have dropped due to immigration but CA is still economically (as a state) highly prosperous with a state GDP per capita ranking #5 nationwide.
California’s white/Asian/Indian and mixed race of the groups demographics will be the national demographics of 2045. So the US is far from being so demographically dysfunctional that it can’t maintain a global position in the top 10 of GDP per capita (in part because the distance between America and the countries immediately trailing it is so large).
https://i.imgur.com/aEreGmT.png
By all accounts, TFR in Hungary is below 1.6 — which means that it’s substantially below China’s current level.
Apparently Hungarian TFR in 2019 was 1.51. This is, to be sure, an improvement over their historic low of 1.29 (2003) — it looks like there has been a slow rebound since then, over these past 17 years.
I don’t know if Orban’s heroic measures will get them back to replacement-level fertility within the next decade, but I sure wouldn’t bet that way…
People talk about China “collapsing” due to low fertility. This must be either stupidity or malice. China’s TFR is higher, and in many cases much higher, than all of the following: Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ukraine, Belarus, Finland, Canada, Japan, S.Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Austria, Croatia, Poland, Hungary, Chile, Czechia, and more.
Native birthrates in France, Sweden, Norway, and the UK are also probably below China’s level.
“Non-Hispanic White” birthrates in the USA are also already below China’s level.
China is really not doing all that poorly where fertility is concerned. And let’s not forget their massive, and largely ethnically-homogenous/high-IQ, population base. Concerns about China’s impending decline are overwrought, and may be politically motivated.
East Asian cultures are ultra-strong pride-shame cultures, and the governments of these places since WW2, never went all-out to promote fertile families as highly honourable, and the lack of children as something to be avoided
But promoting and idolising families with kids, and making clear via ongoing media this is THE nationally honourable thing to do, would have magical quick effects in these countries
Something like what Adolf H. did in the 1930s … Massive family media promotion, plus young marrieds got a large economic ‘loan’ which was 25% forgiven for each child. Families with lots of children got awards of government honour – pic below
The other measure for East Asia is to put stone-cold limits on their insane work habits, currently often 60 hours, 72 hours or more at the office. They need to trim it back for the men, and re-structure so that as automation proceeds, jobs are prioritised for married males, and women can stay at home with children.
Bringing back the mother-home-maker priority for women is not yet possible in the West with our ‘muh gender equality’ obsessions, but East Asian cultures are free enough from cultural marxism and political correctness to do it.
Third Reich Mother’s Cross – bronze (4-5 children), silver (6-7 children), and gold (8 or more children)
https://i.ibb.co/0Q78bfL/nazi-mothers-cross.jpg
How does a 1 billion person gig economy sound?
There is this thinking that just throwing freshly printed money at something will get something done, or that having more population will get something done, or that having more engineers from Diversity U will get something done.
Complete bullshit. Maybe the illusion was born by the scientific-technological success of WWII, where highly capable people (generally not from the military) with a lot of ideas ready to be put to use were made to get together in huts under conditions of food scarcity, and they had the political backing move their ideas forward.
You need RESOURCES (other than financial; including those to support a productive population), mostly TIME (to set up an overall network of ideas and workflow that actually works on the long run and keeps going) and you need COMMITMENT (no MBA wunderkind in charge who wants to retire at 50 based on “company performance” or who oversees clusterfuck like these: Boeing Goes to Pieces)
The US is currently good at building overly expensive military crap that it exchanges with dollar stashes held by “allies”, putting rounded corners on websites and angry NYT bestsellers written by people who identify as Black.
A bad graph expressing badness:
https://i.postimg.cc/ZRDvj7fK/So-Many-Degress-So-Little-Demand.png
Also, at million 500 or so local ‘ocides will be en vogue again.
The way the US is dumbing down, it will take 6 billion Americans to equal the human capital of China. Wait, make it 12 billion, because at least half won’t be working.
There’s only one real way – increasing the smart fraction.
The question is how, without drawing the ire of westoid bleeding heart humanitarian trash
But India is a total write-off.
And they have a long tradition and social norms for dealing with the IQ differential. America is universalist and can’t get rid of that.
What you get when Christians do Indian-style demographics is… Brazil.
And Brazil is another total write-off.
I didn’t want to say this on Twitter to not get suspended but I don’t understand how you can claim that Africans right now are not total economic deadweight. They’re actively harmful as it is before Skynet. We have plenty of them in Europe and their economic output is net negative, let alone the social externalities not computed by GDP.
As others have pointed out, GDP is not a good measure of quality of life or even of the general state of the economy. Yes, lots of rich companies and rich people living there. But so what?
California is the state from which most middle-class people are fleeing today. High taxes, immigration, high cost of living and policies such as rent-control without the option of evicting bad tenants are causing middle-class people to leave to other states.
Thousands of white people in Los Angeles are living in cars because they can’t afford rent. And who knows how many homeless people are there.
Sure, rich Jews and poor Mexicans will remain there. The weather is good, so there’s always people who will settle there. They might even keep having a great GDP. One advantage they have, is that they do not have a very large black population, but this might change.
The only reason why the US might keep the empire still for a while, it’s because most other countries are also multiculturalizing (thanks to US cultural influence). But long-term, China looks to be a safer bet.
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355
I am betting we will continue to skim off the best and brightest minds that India can produce. My granddaughter attended an elementary school in our high tech area where 2/3 of the kids are of Asian heritage, and most of those are from South Asia. They look like Indian kids but talk like white American middle class kids and socially fit in with the white kids. There are worse options.
This is a rather silly essay.
Human capital is meaningless if not given an environment in which to thrive.
Increasing the United States population to one billion people, particularly people without any real roots in Western Civilization, is a prescription for disaster, regardless of any absolute increase in human beings with high IQs. The overpopulated environment and social stressors would not be conducive to creativity.
The faith in the benefits of more and more people is the idiotic “ultimate resource” Julian Simon argument recast as something novel and important.
Even Newton would not have accomplished anything if he had to live in Somalia.
On the basis of this argument Africa is poised to break out of its doldrums and colonize Mars and cure cancer as its population rises and the absolute number of geniuses increase to such a level that progress is assured.
Nonsense.
Although in fairness the future for ethnic Russians doesn’t look much better at current replacement rates.
If Russia is to become an industrial power able to compete with China, the backbone of Russia’s industrial engine will almost certainly be Central Asians and non-Slavs generally. Admittedly Central Asians are probably higher IQ and less troublesome than blacks.
Hungary has recently had consistent TFR growth even as TFRs across the globe continue to drop
Lol.
Are you implying that Armenians brought Syphilis to Europe or that all their men are cucks?
Hispanic integration has never been a difficulty in the U.S. Mexicans and central Americans are some of the most passive and middling people in the world. Ellis Island Italians had far higher fertility than Hispanics and were a much bigger problem. Thankfully half of them fucked off back to Italy. Moreover the U.S. state capacity is far greater, making organized crime less of an issue.
You have stated the problem backwards. The problem is how to avoid assimilating the U.S. to Hispanic norms.
Although Brazil seems to have handled its racial problems fairly well. I get the impression that the reason Brazil is violent is because it’s full of low IQ, low impulse control mestizos and blacks, not because of any significant racial strife like in the US. Likewise non-white Brazilians (ie the majority) mostly do not seem to mind or even recognise that they have a white ruling class, they’re all just Brazilians.
Catholic-based cultures in general seem to handle racial issues a lot better than Protestant-based cultures do. If you consider the countries with ethnic strife problems in Europe, it’s largely the Protestant-based cultures like Britain, Scandinavia, Netherlands, Germany that have the biggest issues.
The Manchus had some traditions of martial prowess fighting against Mongols, but they weren’t steppe warriors. The Manchus, Jurchens, and Mohe were all sedentary agriculturalists. Nurhaci himself grew up as a soldier under the protection of an ethnically Korean Ming general. The Manchus had allied Mongols, but Han bannermen exceeded Manchus and Mongols combined.
Latin American societies were founded by small numbers of polygamous male settlers who killed the men and reproduced with the women. Anglo settler societies were folk migrations. This explains the difference in attitudes to ethnicity(though it’s probably also true that Meds are more likely to fuck anything that moves). The trajectories of Latin American societies likely has little to do with religion.
If it turns out that Ireland has very little racial strife as its elites continue to replace the native population, then you will have an example that supports your argument. Although I’m not sure passively allowing immigrants to destroy your country is a measure of success.
France has had ethnic strife.
Black violence in the U.S. is also primarily a result of blacks being impulsive, low IQ animals.
Large populations will be a burden in the future rather than a strength and cause for instability.
China still hasn’t managed to overtake America, a nation of 200 million Europeans who have to prop up the other 100 million or so Latinos and sub-Saharan Africans. This to me is a testament to the strength of the Europeans peoples.
South Africa would be a whole lot more competitive if it just had its current White population in isolation, compared to the real setup we have today of Whites being only around 10% of the South African population.
No niggers.
Lol.
Mass Indian immigration is actually the worst option there is. High IQ Indians have a very low birth rate, while 82 IQ Indians are breeding like rats.
Indians bring with them strong clannish tendencies and the inability to act as a nation state. If we import more of them we will just accelerate the caste system already forming in America.
Hindus are hostile to non Hindus. Just look at how they treat Christains in India.
Japan and Korea simply don’t have enough land mass (of the right kind) to support further population growth in which the masses don’t suffer pathologies related to insufficient elbow room.
Although remember that small changes between years of “total fertility rate” are often just noise in this predictive, caused by changes of timing of births. This means that a fall in total fertility in earlier years, will cause an increase in total fertility rate in subsequent years, and vice-versa, across women’s fertile years.
If in Hungary, total fertility rates have increased, a most likely cause of the increase, is the fall in total fertility in earlier recent years in Hungary. If total fertility rate falls in 2015, then this fall can be the cause of it increasing in 2020 (if the same women who delays having child in 2015, will have him in 2020).
That’s why, if you are interested in population renewal, we would only know after looking at actual completed fertility rates, if you want to assess whether the natalist policy was actually successful or not. However, we have to wait a long time to see what it will be.
Most politicians are less interested in the actual population renewal, than their own approval ratings. Therefore, politicians (including ones which might be quite good for their country like Orban) celebrate small changes in total fertility rate, which were most likely just caused by changes of timing of birth, and the earlier fall in the total fertility rate.
If we look at Hungary, we can see of the cohort fertility rate had been above 1,8 for women born up to 1970 (that is women who are 50 years old today). I can’t find more recent predictions for women who are still fertile, although for Russia there are some studying which are predicting these.
https://i.imgur.com/3ShLAn5.jpg
Why are people assuming that the usa will be allowed to survive that long with our current territory or anything like our (already disappearing) system and culture?
We should be more focused on trying go avoid starvation and violent chaos in our streets in the next few years than wishing for some other dystopian scenario, down the road, where it is supposedly to our advantage to pollute the rest of our air and water and cram people into a miserable filthy ant-like existence as in much of India and Africa.
How exactly are we going to avoid hyperinflation / currency collapse and insolvency? What standard of living will US residents have when the dollar loses half its value against the currencies of the countries that manufacture the things we buy? (This means China most of all, but let’s also ask what happens when energy-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, and Russia require that we pay for oil and natural gas in greatly appreciated Yuan or Rubles?)
How are we going to avoid ongoing mass violence as tens of millions of people eventually are evicted by landlords and banks? And for the regular people who own rental properties, how will they fare when they cannot find tenants consistently able and willing to pay rent?
As for importing more people from Africa or Latin America, forget even the major assimilation / balkanization problems it would exacerbate. Where would jobs come from when many jobs are already being automated away? Millions of our existing jobs are being and will be eliminated by sophisticated machinery and robots, ubiquitous touchscreen kiosks, and improving artificial intelligence. People of all races already living in the USA will be desperate and literally at each other’s throats without importing millions more — of any race or religion — for whom we know there are no jobs.
A better question might be, how many more Han settlers can China get into an Australia, Europe, and North America that lack confidence, cultural/racial pride and unity, and have core populations that fail to reproduce or defend themselves? The answer is likely in the tens of millions at least.
My wife and I will eventually wise up and leave California, but we will make our stand in what remains of the usa. We will do our tiny part to defend and restore some part of normal traditional America and yes, Western civilization on part of US territory. But each of our children is learning Mandarin and/or Russian — preparing for the world as it seems likelier to evolve in the near future, not the world as we wish it were or should have been.
Thought exercises like “how can we destroy the rest of the planet and overcrowd to the point of misery to compete with China?” are nowhere on our list of serious concerns.
Finally, an Islamized, unsafe, and deeply impoverished “Europe” of competing nonEuropean tribes — Arab, Turk, Kurd, Pakistani, and African — and a steadily dying, homosexualized, cowardly, self-hating white population, would not seem to be a useful military or cultural ally.
It won’t be the low IQ Indians migrating, but the middling to high IQ ones, which will be arguably worse as they will be like Jews. Have you noticed the preponderance of Indians in left-wing radical movements in America? Saira Rao is a good example of this.
I was surprised by this Gallup poll, desire to resettle permanently outside of one’s homeland was very low in South Asia with 8% of respondents stating they would move to another country permanently. Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America/Carribbean was the highest at 33% and 27% respectively.
Obviously, increasing population size of a country, will likely not increase the living standard for an ordinary man, and we will be old men or dead by the time this happens.
These issues are just relevant for parlour debate questions like “what will be the world’s largest economy in 2100”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqHZRwVU_0E
Have you considered seeing a doctor?
The population in the US is already too high. People are finding it harder and harder to find good paying jobs no matter how high their IQ. Hundreds, if not thousands of applicants flood the admissions departments of colleges and universities for even one opening in the sciences. Steady, small growth that accommodates the labor markets is the way to go.
The Manchus absorbed the nomadic Khalkas, Wild Jurchens (Nanai, Nivkh) and the Khitan into their coalition at the same time as the Mohe. That’s why three of the original eight banners were effectively restricted to steppe tribe members.
The reason why Nurhaci and his father had a number of military successes under their belt when the final showdown with the Ming arrived is that they could defeat the enemy on the fields with their steppe tribe constituents, and then do the heavy lifting of siegecraft with their sedentary core of settled rice-eaters and Korean artillerists.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RokoMijicUK/status/1306519503275282437
I would add that cultural effects of 20th century’s and 21st century’s massive populations of billions of people, have not necessarily been completely positive.
A number of 20th century writers believed that the world’s increasingly vast population sizes were one of the main causes of the increasing sense of triviality and loss of self-confidence.
For example, Bertrand Russell writes in 1935:
“A prominent citizen of a small city State, such as Athens or Florence, could without difficulty feel himself important. The earth was the centre of the universe, man was the purpose of creation, his own small city showed man at his best, and he himself was among the best of those men he knew in his own city. In such circumstances, Aeschylus or Dante could take his own joys or sorrows seriously. He could feel that the emotions of the individual matter, and that tragic occurrences deserve to be celebrated in immortal verse. But the modern man, when misfortune assails him, is conscious of himself as a small unit in a statistical total; the past and the future stretch before him in a dreary procession.
^ This is something which seems plausible. Renaissance Florence had a population around 80,000 people, while Classical Athens had a population around 120,000 people. Yet each city could produce more important cultural works in a few years, than countries with hundreds of millions of people achieve today.
The only way for a business to provide high paying jobs is to have high sales (revenues). There are two ways of doing this:
High sales volume (your margins are low but lots of people buy your stuff, so lots of money comes in).
First way is neither desirable nor sustainable in any more or less market based economy.
As automation and competition compress your margins, second way is the only way to go.
If you have no population growth, where will your customers come from? No customer growth means no credit growth means no sales growth means no high paying jobs growth and no economic growth.
The number one thing any business needs, the only thing that matters, is paying customers. No paying custmers means economic death. Which is why we will be instituting Universal Basic Income schemes and importing as many Africans as we possibly can as long as they are alive and can shop on Amazon.
Hell, if we can teach dogs to shop on Amazon, we will be giving basic income to dogs too as long as they can maintain consumption and drive GDP growth.
That’s true.
The backbone of Russian industrial engine will be robots just like everywhere else. The current poor state of Russian industry just means it will be easier to leapfrog to the latest technologies and not having to deal with legacy systems.
With that said, keep in mind that while industry is required for national power and independence, it is a declining component of the overall economy, similar to agriculture.
Economy of any advanced country is based mostly on consumption of services. And Russia is highly competitive in that area, with Yandex an Mail.ru and VK and rapidly growing various electronic financial and other business startups.
I read stories all the time about Japanese villages in the countryside turning into ghost towns as the last old people die off, and Japanese cities demolishing exurban blocks to relocate people closer to the city as population decline depopulates certain areas.
Meanwhile everyone knows about the image of the Japanese packed into subway cars like sardines and renting out coffin hotels where you can sleep in a drawer.
Seems to be some kind of cultural thing. My impression of Japan is everyone is packed into the cities and vast amounts of countryside is increasingly wild and uninhabited. It doesn’t seem like they couldn’t support a higher population if they wanted to, even at greatly decreased density if they wanted to.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/69/Japan_Population_density_map.svg/350px-Japan_Population_density_map.svg.png
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/09/PG_2020.09.15_U.S.-Image_0-17.png
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/09/PG_2020.09.15_U.S.-Image_0-20.png
They are Godless people and so they wither and die.
If I remember correctly fertility rates still declined in Nazi Germany.
There is some data to back that up. The remaining kirishitans (the Insular ones, on Tanegashima, Hirado & Tsushima) are the only groups other than Brazilians in Japan — and obviously the only ethnic Japanese to breed at above replacement. Unfortunately, that’s only maybe 200,000 people.
Immigration adds to the number of those seeking employment (the labour supply), not necessarily the number of jobs (the work force). As Paul Craig Roberts has been saying for more than a decade, the US employment statistics are bullshit, as are the statistics of virtually every other (((Western liberal democracy))), because they have all been “harmonized”. People whose unemployment benefits have run out are not “unemployed” nor are people who have stopped looking, on welfare, never been employed, and a myriad of other factors. In many countries, employment beyond 30 hours a week means you are employed “full time” even if employment is in more than one job. People employed in more than one job are counted twice. The actual number of full time equivalent jobs has been shrinking for more than 20 years. My local chain grocery store employs more than a hundred people. Other than the managers and a handful of employees the rest are part time – about 20 scheduled hours a week tops.
Immigration reduces citizen employment and is a net drain on government, it costs tens of billions annually that could be better spent on citizens.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EW1r6_bUwAAEl5n.jpg
People forget gypsies are Indian.
Japan has higher population density than a map like that would imply. Japan is very mountainous and most of the land isn’t suitable to either live on or to use for agriculture. If you look at a satellite map of Japan you’ll see that basically all flat land is either cities or agricultural land. Still they manage nowhere near food self-sufficiency. Almost two thirds of their food (by calories) is imported.
There is a baby boom in Hungary this year, so TFR for 2020 will be at the 1,6 range. The historic low TFR was 1,23 in 2011.
But Hungary has about 10% (one million) gypsies, with TFR about 3.0. So the meaning of the 1,23 TFR for magyars is shocking, as Spengler wrote in 2012:
“Hungarians are disappearing faster than any other nationality. Ethnic Hungarians, according to unpublished government data, have a fertility rate of 0.83 — fewer than one child per woman, after the high birth rate of the local Roma population is excluded. If the Roma are included, the fertility rate is just 1.28.”
https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2012/07/12/hungarian-suicide-song-redux-n130940
for years different TFR for China have been reported. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Total_fertility_rate
It is likely that China have values similar to Taiwan and South Korea, around 1.0. Interestingly Japan seems to be the exception in East Asia, with a TFR at European levels at around 1.5
Today, productivity means inexpensive. Suppressing wages and working conditions increases productivity. Lowering the number of employees to produce the same amount of product or sales is increased productivity.
The Henry Ford model died long, long ago. Paying employees enough to buy what he manufactured increased wages and production. In his view, the mass production equated to productivity.
I would add, that Ford had jobs broken down the work to such an extent that it provided work for many disabled as well.
Today, it is all about the CEO and upper management pocketing the big coin, and f-ck everyone else.
Reminder that Western European countries are still 75-90% white (de souche + other European) while the US is now 60% “non-Hispanic” white according to 2020 pre-census estimates by the US Census Bureau.
As for crime:
https://i.redd.it/glgu1m0a1fc01.png
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/7/76/Homicide_rate_2017.png
“Right now nobody knows how many blacks there are.”
we know almost exactly how many there are in America, since the central government effectively exists to service their needs. the direct money transfers depend on highly accurate national level accounting for 40 million africans. they complain loudly and continuously if these money transfers don’t happen, so they definitely all get counted.
i would guess the washington DC numbers are accurate down to 1000 african citizens. live africans anyway. there’s no chance of an undercount. the inaccurate part would be an overcount of living africans, and figuring out when africans die and when to remove them from the direct payment programs.
indeed. the number of african citizens in the US is one of the most accurate statistics we have. the entire society has been re-organized around their interests and concerns.
it’s other groups the central goverment has less accurate numbers on. illegals of any kind being by far the biggest unknown, including the african ones. visa overstays probably second. mexican citizens third. they complain less when the direct money payments don’t happen. there’s about as many mexican citizens and africans now, so the numbers are fuzzy, but less fuzzy.
when it comes to worldwide numbers, you’re correct, it’s only an estimate. africans aren’t even capable of record keeping, so nobody knows how many people are in Africa itself, or the diaspora nations. accuracy to the 1 million people precision is probably possible on these scales, though.
These annual “wave like” small short-term fluctuation of “total fertility rate” is usually just noise created by the design of the measurement.
So if total fertility rate in Hungary is 1,3 in 2010, and than 1,7 in 2015, and 1,3 in 2020, and 1,7 in 2025 – the main cause of the higher measure in 2015 and 2025, will have likely been the lower measure in 2010 or 2020. The low number in one year, is what is causing the higher number in a subsequent year, as it is the same women being measured both times, who simply displace the timing of the births from one year to another (timing of births is also very sensitive to economic situation).
–
As for the situation in Hungary, (aside from discussion about gypsies) it seems to be the same as other countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
If you look at women who are up to age 40 in 2020 – all of this region of Europe has been somewhere around 1,5-1,8 in the completed fertility rates. Hungary seems typical of the central Europe.
https://i.imgur.com/rnaoUNe.jpg
Reverse age pyramid means that total number of new entrants doesn’t solve the problem as you can still have a very top heavy age structure of pensioners to workers. While China is unlikely to “collapse” anytime soon, if its current age structure continues, then it’ll put considerable pressure on the nation that “grew old before it grew rich.”
Japan is exceptional in many ways, in particular maintaining relatively high tfr even in urban regions where usually it collapses to 1(or below) in East Asia.
Is making him into a tranny the supercomputer’s retroactive punishment?
I hope no-one draws conclusions about English or Irish people from our gypsies
And having to exist in our company. The punishment will not end until he completes his task to create a Benevolent AI that does not require dieting to lose weight.
US should take as many white hispanics and well-qualified hispanics as possible; with an assimilationist culture,all should go well. Then it should strengthen ties with the rest of the Anglosphere (this already happened). And then there are the alliances in the Indo-Pacific. This is the best shot they got.
About the Chinese converging in per capita terms with US:this was not possible for western Europe, with less people,better technology and access to foreign(American) technologies, and starting their road to development much earlier. The best China can probably hope for is Japan (which would still be great for them); unless the human capital in US really goes down the drain through further mass immigration…then, all bets are off,and we might as well pick up a book of Mandarin.
Current reported figures are in the 1.7 range.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN
TFR in China was indeed lower twenty years ago, but not that much lower. It’s plausible that record-keeping was more spotty back then, and an awful lot of births weren’t officially reported in a timely manner, so figures later had to be revised upwards.
Another thing worth noting is that China was above replacement as recently as 1991. Meaning that there are sufficiently many 20 year olds. Germany, in contrast, hasn’t been above replacement since 1970.
US is in a better shape than it seems. I am notn American, but the only source of tension that would lead to hunger and violence seem to come from blacks. A lot has been said about Hispanics, but they seemed to be rather quiet for the past 4 years of Trump, whose opinion of “Mexicans” are well known.
China is not nearly as burdened with the whole “pension” thing as the US and Europe are. It’s a problem, to be sure, but a relatively small one.
Things will be just as bad — perhaps far worse — outside China’s borders. When funding pension funds truly becomes a headache for the bean-counters in Beijing, I’m not sure that the US will still exist in any recognizable form. As Brasil do Norte, maybe, and that’s if we’re lucky.
And the Neocon media loves to portend the doom of China, but countries like Germany and Italy are in infinitely worse positions:
This is a recipe for disaster. Not just pressure, but real pain.
“Quality of life might in California have dropped due to immigration but CA is still economically (as a state) highly prosperous”
California is billions in the hole, economically. and going downhill, physically.
things can slowly get worse for a long time, and seem to be not so bad, then very rapidly deteriorate with the bottom dropping out, and that’s what’s about to happen to California.
did anybody see that GDP report from South Africa? -50% GDP contraction in the second quarter of 2020. -50%. is that even correct? as a major and lifelong South Africa skeptic, that seems hard to believe, even to me. what did they do? burn down all their power plants?
California will need to rely completely on other states transferring them bailout money, in order to limp along, and that’s exactly what the Biden administration plans to do. drain money from better run states to bail out Illinois, California, and New York. they can’t survive simply by raising taxes yet again. that won’t be enough this time.
and meanwhile, the California exodus continues. you can only switch out so many europeans, before you can’t functionally replace them with endless hordes from Mexico, India, and China, and still get an operational state. what do Indians know about building a functional anything?
Well we will see in the next few years wheter the Hungarian TFR growth is a miracle or statistical fluctuation, noise.
One more thing: in Hungary the number of marriage rised 100% from 2019 to 2020 caused by the financial benefits of the demographic program. I think it is an important parameter.
They have idiots running the information department:
Releasing annualised data projection is stupid due to many countries having significant quarterly fluctuations.
Here is an example of how to make things look a lot more dramatic than it really is:
https://theatlas.com/charts/EkDxOAMme
Though to be fair South Africans are not the only ones who do this (I am aware of at least the USA being similar).
Why is it surprising? Its an annualized number. By same metric in the US, American GDP collapsed 32%.
This is what happens when consumers stop shopping and business loses customers. This is why developed world has been importing migrants like mad – as long as they are breathing and can buy stuff on government welfare benefits or credit, they are good to go.
Business must have warm bodies to buy stuff. Rest is irrelevant.
Unlikely.
High levels of immigration were predicted on the assumption that we’d have continuous high job-growth for decades to come. In reality, due to automation and outsourcing (both of which have been exacerbated by COVID), the need for immigration will fall quickly.
In the future, we’re going to be dealing with the opposite issue. What to do with surplus labor? Who gets to have a job and who has to live on UBI (universal basic income)?
Another issue is this. A lot of the economic expansion was driven by an exceptionally large bubble that was ignited back in the 80s by Wall Street, the fed, and govt borrowing. Once that bubble pops sometime within the next few years, we’ll be confronted with a high level of economic contraction and stagnation worldwide.
Immigration doesn’t rapidly happen. It’s driven by economics (jobs and welfare). If an economy doesn’t have jobs and can’t support welfare, then immigration won’t happen. Simple as that.
This shows that Asians are not at such high positions that they have control over the USA (other than the Google CEO, who is from India), but they are still very wealthy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income
Top rankings dominated by Asians.
Do you mean because culture and jobs of gypsies in Ireland and UK, fulfilled by local Irish and British people?
It’s an analogy to “ecological niche”, or perhaps import substitution. i.e. Instead of importing real gypsies, they produce local people that do these jobs. Although perhaps English and Irish gypsies seem more polite and gentle than the stereotype of a real gypsy community.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-A0MrESuQgkally
Isn’t this because of H-1B visa, means USA is importing middle class workers from India?
This visa removes the proletarian section from the Indians immigrating to America, and therefore median income becomes higher for Indian-Americans, than for other nationalities, as the Indians are mostly office workers (i.e. so Indian-Americans have higher salary than Mexican-Americans, because Mexicans entered USA often illegally, and that pathway doesn’t exclude a majority proletariat).
There’s something the same as the critical skills employment permit in Republic of Ireland and Tier 2 visa in UK. This means that Russian/Indian men in Ireland, are usually a kind of middle class office gastarbaiter.
On the other hand, Poles in UK and Ireland use a different immigration pathway (open borders), and therefore Poles include a large proletarian and even lumpen section with prostitutes and gangsters.
From what I’ve seen so far, over the last 20 years or so, the vast majority of new immigrants to the US do not morph into extravagant consumers of high end products. And its luxury cars and fancy TV’s, music systems and computers and electronic equipment where the value added profits are to be found. Your typical Hmong or other lower strata immigrant, after paying his portion of Section 6 housing, is looking to supplement his grocery items, after foodstamps, and isn’t really interested (or able) in purchasing a brand new Lexus nor a Bang and Olufson sound system. Unless you can show me that the proportion of immigrants that do translate into higher end consumers is substantially higher than those on bottom rung of economic prosperity, I’ll remain skeptical. Sales of more Doritos and beer isn’t going to lift the economy out of its doldrums.
I assume that in Hungary fertility rate has been probably been stabilizing at the lower level, after a fall which had occurred around the 1990s.
Completed fertility rates for Hungary for women born
1960: 1,977 children per woman (20-40 years old in 1980-2000)
1965: 1,945 children per woman (20-40 years old in 1985-2005)
1970: 1,81 children per woman (20-40 years old in 1990-2010)
Feel free to bathe in your superior pajeet religion.
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/10/article-2654349-1EA4BD4D00000578-574_964x626.jpg
Mexico’s problems mostly stem being located at the bottleneck of the world’s most profitable drug-trade, I really doubt the average Mexican is much different from the average pindos Amerimutt. As far as Hispanic immigration keeps the negro population of the USA in check, making South, SE and SW Asian immigration unnecessary, whilst the old-stock fails to replace itself, they’re a net benefit. Not ideal, but it’s far better than the potential immigration-disaster looming in Europe’s future.
I’m not even a big fan of the state, but seriously, California’s problems don’t even compare with most of the rest of the country, it sounds like you get all your news from cuckservative sites like Breitbart.
High end, no. But they do shop at WalMart and WalMart is a very powerful American corporation, so that matters.
That said, you are correct – top 10% of US consumers are responsible for something like 50% of spending which is why US GDP growth rate has been stuck in a 2% rut for the past two decades despite $trillions of debt freely handed out to them. WalMart and Amazon sales spiked when those $1,200 stimulus checks came out, I am sure this was not lost on our overlords. Expect more Basic Income proposals to drive Amazon and WalMart profits higher.
Strictly speaking, I’m personally an example of a high-ish income level immigrant (chemical engineers rarely starve to death), but yea, that’s probably an exception these days rather than the rule. That said, my success entirely depends upon sales of stuff that i make and if WalMart has no customers to buy stuff it feeds up the supply chain and we all go unemployed eventually. Except the rich who can just print money for themselves of course.
Well, I haven’t yet read through the comment-thread, but if we need a population of a billion or more to compete with China, why wait??
The easiest and simplest approach is just to immediately merge the U.S. with Sub-Saharan Africa, which already has a population of over 1 billion. Combined with our 330 million, we’d already be tied with the PRC, and given African fertility-rates we’d soon shoot ahead.
I can’t see any of the countries in Black Africa turning down an immediate annexation, even if some of them might grumble a little about our national ideology of mandatory homosexuality. And under One Man, One Vote, Trump or Biden would surely be our last non-black president…
Yes, this describes in part how America develops a partially Asian elite.
What you are saying is why won’t US increase influence in the African Union?
What do you think US raped and murdered Colonel Qaddafi for? Why do you think Hillary Clinton giggled “We came We saw He died” on national TV?
It’s not that difficult to guess where the future is going.
i’m aware the GDP number is annualized. i mentally converted that -51% annual to -13% for the quarter as a ballpark number. -16% is even worse. -16% is a gigantic drop in 3 months. and SA has been contracting continuously for a while, it’s not a sudden thing.
if you follow SA even peripherally you’ll see that they do have a big problem with their old coal power plants slowly breaking down, and the locals not knowing how to keep them up and running. so i was only being partly facetious.
this is EXACTLY the situation California is in, with 100 year old infrastructure slowly crumbling. people act like a bunch of dumb mexicans can keep it up and running because they do the lawn care and crop picking. anybody who’s been to Mexico itself knows what things are actually gonna look like in a few decades.
Part of the problem is that there’s no “normal” way to compensate breeders without offending individuals without children; such individuals hold quite a bit of power even in a nondemocratic environment since it naturally follows that without family, they can spend more time on their ambitions. In a similar way as how the gay mafia always has a strandhold, DINK couples also command massive sway and power.
Do you think Eastern Europe will be able to mitigate that immigration disaster/Africapocalypse in the coming future?
Want to raise birth rate when people in the modern age do not care about family and do not anymore want the dirty and ungrateful work of raising children?
Many things can be done.
See, for example, this Hungarian proposal.
https://trivent-publishing.eu/books/ethics_of_emerging_biotechnologies/14.%20Janos%20Toth.pdf
The only way having a very large number of children can be encouraged is by getting society to accept this activity as a form of work that deserves payment.
Let us call this type of reproductive activity full-time parental work.What I propose is that the state should elaborate a new form of public employment for parents raising a high number of children of their own (≥5) to provide the parents employed in this framework a wage calculated in proportion with the number of the children raised and paid for the parent’s lifetime.
TL;DR: Make breeding and raising children not unpaid chore done as “duty” , but full time, dedicated and prestigious paid job.
Just like mass conscript forces were replaced with professional armies.
Instead of eveyone monkeying around with rifle, the civilians stay home and support the full time professionals with their tax money.
The same way, people with no children will support with their taxes families of full time breeders.
To prevent your protests, this will be nothing like welfare as it stands today.
The professional breeders will be well rewarded, picked to the highest standards (flawless genetics, pure national origin and absolute loyalty to the Church and Party) and will be celebrated in all media as the greatest heroes of the nation.
The primary concern of breeders (such as yours truly) is time. I was only partially joking about Lords Resistance Army checkpoints as cheap daycare. If daycare costs come down, more kids will come.
I meant that gypsies in Britain and Ireland, derived from the native population, are very different to normal British people, so by analogy you cannot derive conclusions about Indians from real gypsies.
They are very, very bad. Whether they are as bad as real gypsies I don’t know, there are far fewer of them which helps.
My personal experience with families with a large number of children is that it is self-enabling in that fashion: your close kin will be able to assist with taking care of children, or in truly exceptional cases, your elder children will do so with the younger children(my wife was one of seven, and had that dynamic).
Its interesting that falling birth rates engender further fall in birth rates due to such difficulties fostered. I’m also a father, so I can sympathize.
I see that people are slowly coming around to my idea of sperm banks and paid surrogates to deliver children directly to a state-run creche. Industrialized reproduction shall eliminate the flaws of our domestic cottage methods of human replacement.
Glory to the State!
English people don’t have gypsies, and yes I do extrapolate the behaviour of Irish travellers to the Irish people.
It is the really the next logical step after the government has stated taking over more and more important tasks (taking care of the school-age young, the old and the poor) from families and other non-government institutions in the last centuries.
I lived in California (Los Angeles) for many years and left, as millions of other whites did in the last years. But, enjoy your multicultural paradise with Mexicans, Guatemalans, Colombians, Vietnamese, Chinese, Indians, Iranians. Armenians, Russians, Jews, Gypsies. Enjoy high cost of living and high taxes! Enjoy rent control and inability to evict tenants! Enjoy cheap Mexican maids!
Of course to rich Jews such as Ron “Mexican immigration is great” Unz, California is paradise. For those with less money, not so much.
Well, if you press a button and remove the ~45 million Blacks in the US, total GDP will certainly plummet about commensurately due to the impact on consumption alone (not accounting for the short-term disruptions of such an event). GDP per capita will over course go up, due to the higher human capital of the remaining Americans as well as the removal of those social externalities that you speak of. But will this result in an increase in total GDP relative to today’s? I am not sure, my guess is sooner no than yes, but I can’t say for sure and neither can anybody else and it’s not a claim that’s important or one that I want to spend time defending, hence me demurely labeling it as an “open question”. OTOH, QoL will improve, there will be less dysfunction, aggregate national power might increase even if GDP falls (GDP being an important component of but not the be all and end all of national power).
I hope this is a better elucidation than what can be conveyed in 280 character character Tweets. Though I am still surprised by how many of your followers took that to mean I am demanding Infinity Negroes.
This example belongs to a slightly different plane, because California has a heritage which it is currently burning through. As the formerly “Golden State”, California had accumulated the best infrastructure in the world, as well as the best and brightest of the world’s peoples. Between 1940 and 1990 it was the shining example the rest of the world wanted to become.
Thus the current new civilization made up of a new ethnic demographic and new social rules and mores, is mostly cannibalizing this heritage.
Whereas India, and many others, have first to build the basis, which California stands on as a given. Of course they can never build a basis as good as California in its heyday, but by 2030 they can probably build something on the level of what California will likely be by 2030. Unless it casts off the commies and slows down the destruction of the inherited institutions and infrastructure from the previous civilization, and instead starts mending what is left.
That being said, you’re probably right in what you say, it’s just that California is not the proper example, as its current situation is “Vandals burning through Roman heritage” and not “Vandals building stuff from scratch”.
A brown mass ran by a smart elite can indeed work, in theory, but the ceiling of what is possible is pretty low. I’d say today’s Malaysia and Brazil are the best a society like this can hope for. Can’t go higher, not without some fancy AI caretaker android sci-fi society.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/744474277734121482/756498650217316372/D6mXKZyUUAAwywb.png
https://twitter.com/bijjaichhand/status/1128599391168647170
Swords are inferior to spears.
I know you’re joking but this (or alternatively, cloning millions of mid-class huwhytes) is honestly a better ‘in theory’ proposal for success than the ‘sprinkle some high IQ Asians and Jews on top of a billion Africans and mulattos and according to HDB magic the USA will be able to beat China’ idea.
German TFR was bottoming out as Nazis took power at around 1.6, or just under 1 million births. It rebounded up through 1940 to around 2.4 (1.4 million births), then plummeted again to as low as 1.6 (0.9 million births) in the aftermath of WW2. Germany has never again surpassed the 1.4 million births achieved in 1940. Some years it does less than half that.
Surely most of the credit goes to economic recovery. Unemployment was 30% in 1932, and basically at or below normalized levels by 1938. But yeah, they never reached the post-WW1 peak, which seems to have been 2.6 TFR in 1923, or 1.6 million births in 1920-21.
I have to think totalitarian-level pro-natal propaganda doesn’t quite count for nothing (and perhaps it would count for more today as it drowns out an increasingly anti-natal message), but it’s not enough to cause a baby boom, for sure.
The problem with that is that although you might get more manufacturing industry you won’t get more manufacturing jobs. You’ll get more robot factories.
You seem to think it’s still the 1950s. The days when manufacturing industry could provide huge numbers of high paying blue collar jobs are gone.
And people will be paying higher prices for consumer goods. Paying higher prices for consumer goods might be a cost worth paying if it actually resulted in the creation of lots of jobs but that isn’t going to happen. People will be paying higher prices for no benefit whatsoever, so on average most people will be worse off.
You’re suggesting something that would have worked sixty years ago. It won’t work today.
And of course if you impose those futile tariffs other countries will retaliate, in various ways. You’ll also alienate allies and potential allies.
The factor that is going to devastate wages for citizens in the U.S. (and other countries) is automation. As fewer workers are needed the corporate sector will drive wages downwards. Again you’re thinking in 1950s terms. And in the near future it’s not going to be just manufacturing jobs that are going to be automated out of existence. Retail jobs will disappear almost entirely. A surprising number of white-collar jobs are also going to be automated out of existence. Sooner or later the corporate sector is going to realise that most office jobs are simply unnecessary.
whattt? Ethnic Russians have a long tradition in Science and Technology – what makes you think Central Asians (who have had a preindustrial pastoral existence until a few decades ago) would be at the forefront of a high tech Russian economy?
That’s communism!
But I agree with you. How about not just supporting all children but all mothers as well? If a woman chooses motherhood she gets supported so she can actually stay home and raise those kids and not have to work. The ideal way to do this would be by ensuring that a man can earn enough money to support a wife and several children on his income alone but since the idea of allowing men to earn decent wages is unfashionable the next best way would be state support.
Of course that’s communism as well. But you’re either serious about raising birth rates or you’re not. If you are then you may have to accept some socialist ideas.
All weapons sacred, what’s your edc?
As our esteemed host knew long ago. Good that normies are finally waking up.
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/paper-review-artificial-wombs/
Go little bit back, when armies of the kings replaced tribal levies for defence, when organized religion replaced traditional tribal gods, when law and royal courts replaced tribal and family blood feuds. This is when the whole modernist rot started.
Tribalists and anarcho-primitivists are the only true trads, deal with it.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d4/00/35/d40035afb362abe864fe1ccd4f09d71a.jpg
Our kind host also wrote another relevant piece:
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/tainter-collapse-of-complex-societies/
Whether true or not, talking about “total fertility rate” of the past is meaningless, as “total fertility rate” is only useful as the most simplistic predictive tool for the future, when you have incomplete information (i.e. when you are in the present, and inferring about the future). Total fertility is the most simplistic way to create a predictive generalization.
In talking about the past, there is data of the real fertility rates, so you do not look at “total fertility rate”, which is only useful as the most crude way to predict a general trend, if you don’t know what future will be, and assume timing of births will be constant and even.
In Germany fertility rate of those women was below replacement in the completed fertility rates (in 1930s, replacement rate was significantly higher than 2,1 it is today) for women born between 1901-1929.
This is fertility rates by date of birth of the women. So fertile women over the period of the
https://i.imgur.com/e7JHMIS.jpg
That’s a good point. The childless are already pretty resentful about paying taxes to provide education and other services for children and they would be very resentful indeed about paying higher taxes to subsidise breeders. That’s one of the reasons that the demographic crisis is probably one of those problems that no democratic society will be able to solve.
We need to get the Central London Hatchery up and running ASAP. Don’t think of Brave New World as a warning, think of it as an instruction manual for survival.
Agree. Everyone else are progressive to one degree or another. Let’s leave the planet to the Primeval Trads and send anyone else into Space to sort their differences.
The CCP has already reversed the one child policy. If they need to they can encourage more births via taxes etc.
Robots have been powering industry for generations. They are programmed. There’s no need for AI and no use for machine learning. You program the machine for a simple purpose. Solder this. Drill that. Etch this. Screw that. The entire fabrication labs in intel etc is automated, and has to be.
What AI is supposedly threatens isn’t factory work but service and office work, call centres, maybe healthcare, other clerical work. And transport. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Legal research. Paralegals. Many species of lawyer.
And the day can’t come soon enough.
Possibly some doctors. Doctors in general practice (in Australia at least) just fill in forms, write prescriptions and order tests. Decent software could do that.
Retail pharmacists could be mostly eliminated. In fact, entirely eliminated.
It’s still about 10-15 years ahead before that will really get going in earnest, in that period all sorts of massive changes will happen, so it’s very hard to predict. Firstly I think it’s mostly going to manifest itself in a sharp rise in terrorism coming from increasingly poor, populous and desperate regions of the world.
I understand the Hungarian birth/ Tfr increase is due to ethnic Hungarians getting married more and having children they would otherwise of postponed, I recall the Hungarian pro fertility policy being aimed at increasing ethnic Hungarian births NOT gypsies, There were a few tricks employed to achieve this iirc such as for couples to access govt money housing and mortgage help etc they would have to have a full education employemt history and no criminal record etc which most Hungarians have and most Gypsies do not.
A123, you didn’t hit the top thing for improved family formation–an end to immigration.
Stop immigration and
— employment opportunity for Americans rises, ergo wages and income rise.
and
— housing price pressure falls, ergo house prices fall.
You’ll get more marriage and more babies.
You must be joking.
No one anywhere in the world has done more than nibbling. Tiddlywink stuff on child care and pregnancy leave and the odd baby bonus aren’t “every tax incentive conceivable”.
Real incentives would be actual incentives, where family with children completely leave the tax payer bucket are net beneficiaries of government spending (ex. housing allowance) and where having children actual improves your financial situation relative to not having them. And there are ways to do that that push on the eugenic lever.
No one has come close to doing that.
These aren’t super hard, intractable problems. But they require prioritization–put at the top of the queue of public policy issues not just some nice-to-have also ran.
In the West the eugenic fertility issue is ignored because it runs counter to the reigning minoritarian zeitgeist.
But even those nations–East Asia–grappling with it have the prioritization problem. Some guy once offered some intelligent commentary on this problem:
Your problem is that the overwhelming majority of people don’t even know there is a demographic problem. Those who are aware of it either think it’s a good thing (it will save the planet) or they don’t care. Those who think there is a problem mostly think the best way to solve it is through immigration.
And to most people it’s a very abstract problem. They don’t see any way that declining birth rates could possibly affect them personally.
Before you can even contemplate drastic solutions your first challenge is to convince people there’s a problem that needs solving, and convince them that the problem is something that will directly affect them.
One thing you haven’t explicitly suggested – make it financially feasible for women to opt out of working and devote themselves full-time to motherhood.
You’re still left with the problem that it isn’t all about money. People don’t just see children as a financial burden. They see children as an inconvenience. And middle-class women see motherhood as boring and demeaning compared to the excitement of a career.
In the end, the one child policy didn’t seem to do very much. TFR has collapsed everywhere, among NE Asians the hardest, regardless of whether governments encourage births or discourage them. Now some level of carrot/stick can theoretically cause births to recover (I mean, at some point, you can try to compel a minimum number of births under pain of death or slavery), but the question is whether the moves required to actually make a difference would need be so extreme that it would cost the Chinese leadership more political capital than it would gain.
I’d agree with all of this.
I wonder if people will start to recognize the problem once societies experience real problems from this. Or if it will at least cause the most extreme anti-natal messages to tone down. On the other hand, it might be too subtle a problem for people to observe clearly, even if they’re in the midst of a collapse caused by it. When there’s not enough money for pensions, they’ll blame the cost of some recent policy passed by their political opponents.
I point to how Scott Alexander observed the problem of cost disease, and how many of America’s political problems are really cost disease problems, but almost no one talks about cost disease. Both sides think the other side is trying to cheat them, instead of asking “Is there a way we can save money AND provide more healthcare/education/infrastructure?” And maybe there’s not, but very few people seem to even think to ask the question.
It makes sense that completed fertility is the best stat — I just didn’t know where to find it. I thought the TFR numbers were crude and wonky, which is why I also cited total births. But of course births can just be moved around in time without any effect on ultimate fertility.
When we’re talking about a 6.5 year period of peaceful rule sandwiched on either side by some combination of economic crisis, war, and national collapse, it would be pretty tough to distinguish between births being moved around vs. people starting to shift towards a new fertility pattern and then abandoning it. But we can at least say that the Nazis didn’t cause all that dramatic a change on fertility patterns in their time, aside from the economic recovery.
I mean the ones actually providing the labour. To compete with China, at least before robots make low to medium skilled human workers obsolete, you need an army of workers. Russian scientists and engineers are not going to want to work for a relative pittance on production lines.