A couple of polls to provide the fodder for the subsequent discussions.
Feel free to provide an exact figure (to one decimal place) for Navalny’s percentage share in the comments and we can have a little competition along the lines of the one we had for the Presidential elections.
Background – Sobyanin vs. Navalny in Figures (July 23 summary); last Levada poll; last WCIOM poll; last FOM poll and prediction; last Synovate Comcon poll.
Discussion thread at The Russia Debate forum – The Moscow Elections, 8 Sept 2013.
Poll #1:
Poll #2:
My own answers to the polls:
(1) Sobyanin. But strategically, Navalny, because a high enough result would make it riskier to put him in prison in what I still regard as a flawed verdict – despite Alexander Mercouris’ very good contrary arguments.
(2) 18-22%. Or more precisely, 20.0%. I’ll note that this has been my position for a long time:
July 23, 2013:
July 29, 2013:
My answers:
(1) Sobyanin
(2) 5-10%
Extra forecast:
Navalny will lose his appeal and go down for 5.
(1) Sobyanin
(2) 10-14%
Navalny will be close to Melnikov (around 3% difference).
Wow, I was really wrong on Navalny’s percentage. Good thing I didn’t bet anything on it! 🙂
First one I chose other, as am not Muscovite. My city, unfortunately, will be run by a thug with uralmash ties famous for using torture to treat drug addiction (points if you can tell what city it is).
As for Navalny, he will probably get between 10-14%. Though I am no fan of President Putin, I find it appalling that so-called progressives turn a blind eye to his racist, ultra-nationalistic rhetoric.