OPEN DISCUSSION: The Moscow Elections, 2013

A couple of polls to provide the fodder for the subsequent discussions.

Feel free to provide an exact figure (to one decimal place) for Navalny’s percentage share in the comments and we can have a little competition along the lines of the one we had for the Presidential elections.

Background – Sobyanin vs. Navalny in Figures (July 23 summary); last Levada polllast WCIOM polllast FOM poll and predictionlast Synovate Comcon poll.

Discussion thread at The Russia Debate forum – The Moscow Elections, 8 Sept 2013.

Poll #1:


Poll #2:


Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. My own answers to the polls:

    (1) Sobyanin. But strategically, Navalny, because a high enough result would make it riskier to put him in prison in what I still regard as a flawed verdict – despite Alexander Mercouris’ very good contrary arguments.

    (2) 18-22%. Or more precisely, 20.0%. I’ll note that this has been my position for a long time:

    July 23, 2013:

    @PowerVertical But “foreign agent” Levada says 5%… @ninaivanovna @BBCDanielS @navalny Still I predict 15%, 20% at most.

    July 29, 2013:

    I don’t expect widespread falsifications this time round, because while Moscow elections became very corrupt under the later Luzhkov and in 2011, in 2012 they suddenly became squeaky clean again. Assuming that remains the case – and why not? Sobyanin has no need to resort to fraud to win – I expect Navalny to get something close to 20%. Sobyanin – maybe 60%. Melnikov to get the usual KPRFists minus some because nobody knows about him, Degtyarev and Levichev to get small single digits because who the heck are they?

  2. My answers:

    (1) Sobyanin

    (2) 5-10%

    Extra forecast:

    Navalny will lose his appeal and go down for 5.

  3. (1) Sobyanin

    (2) 10-14%

    Navalny will be close to Melnikov (around 3% difference).

  4. First one I chose other, as am not Muscovite. My city, unfortunately, will be run by a thug with uralmash ties famous for using torture to treat drug addiction (points if you can tell what city it is).

    As for Navalny, he will probably get between 10-14%. Though I am no fan of President Putin, I find it appalling that so-called progressives turn a blind eye to his racist, ultra-nationalistic rhetoric.