Open Thread 102

coronopoasts incoming

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. This is the current Open Thread, where anything goes – within reason.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. Will coronavirus kill off enough working class whites and seniors to make Trump lose the election in the Midwest?

  3. AnonFromTN says

    Russian joke.
    How the times have changed! In the old days dogs had their muzzles covered, whereas the owners did not. Now it’s the other way around.

  4. I am sure when you die from coronavirus it will not be a so funny to you right?

  5. Kent Nationalist says

    It seems like blacks are dying proportionally more than whites in Midwestern swing states.

    In some places, the multiple between Black and White mortality rates greatly exceeds the 2.6 overall figure that we’ve constructed from all available data for the nation. In Kansas, Black residents are 7 times more likely to die than White residents. In Missouri, Wisconsin and Washington D.C., the rate among Blacks is 6 times higher than Whites, while in Michigan, it is 5 times greater. In Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, New York, Oregon and South Carolina, Blacks are 3 times more likely to die of the virus than Whites. In many states, the virus is also killing Black residents several multiples more often than Asian and Latino residents.

  6. Kent Nationalist says

    Orthodox Jews?

  7. Felix Keverich says

    I have to say that Karlin’s tendency to jerk off to “Visegrad” has become annoying. Allegations of their success against Corona do not stand up to scrutiny. Poland has been stuck at the same number of new daily cases, deaths since early April. And in the Ukraine daily deaths show a clear uptrend despite the fact that they had mandatory mask policy since April 6:

    Any “plateau” you see in their confirmed infections data is probably caused by the limitations of their testing. Testing in the Ukraine has been particularly abysmal, currently doing less than 10.000 per day, compared to 50.000 in Moscow city alone. By heaping praise on Eastern Europe Karlin essentially rewards them for not testing.

  8. Dieter Kief says

    Here’s the man who would have laughed out loud about CO-19 and the face-tampons even men have now to display in public Ha-Ha! – Mr. Limonow, he may rest in peace!

    BUT before he vanishes into oblivion, everybody with a heart for the political jugglers and the clowns with the frowns under their thorny and imaginary crowns… – for all of Ya – – – I highly recommend to read the following very entertaining and informative book about PUNK! and the drunks and bums of Seventh Ave and Stark design and Billionaires. Limonov:

    Limonov: The Outrageous Adventures of the Radical Soviet Poet Who Became a Bum in New York, a Sensation in France, and a Political Antihero in Russia

    by Emmanuel Carrère und John Lambert

  9. Belarusian Dude says

    I know there’s not a lot of militaria fags here but nevertheless I’d like to temper my usual Ukrophobia with some Ukrotriumph. I had the pleasure of shooting a genuine Ukrainian Vepr and it was an experience; surprisingly ergonomic, and without any loss of performance and it wouldn’t be hard to get modern furniture in it like picatinnies on post 2000 Russian AKs.

    In general the Ukrainian army and MIC has gone to through considerable overhauls. Soldiers wear ops-core helmets, and they fixed up their Tanks/APCs/IFVs to have night optics. While certainly very far from the standards of Russian and Chinese armed forces and especially Western ones, they certainly have equalized at the very least to Russian PMCs and are getting ever better.

  10. AltSerrice says

    Whitepill on the efficacy of Russian health services and local governance:

    Russia has conducted 7 million coronavirus tests as of yesterday, meaning about 47,000 tests per million inhabitants. This is slightly higher than Italy and the 2nd best per capita testing of any major country, after Spain.

    This is especially remarkable when considering that Italy and Spain had cause to rapidly mobilise testing; their huge outbreaks.

    There’s a good chance that a great number of cases were missed in those early outbreak countries, as people simply recovered before being tested, or did not bother getting tested because they had recovered. In Russia we should get a much better picture of the full scale of the outbreak, which may help explain the unusually low death count relative to cases.

  11. Dieter Kief says

    a) No.

    b) Donald Trump is still his greatest enemy, not Corona-San.

  12. AnonFromTN says

    Here is on optimistic way of looking at things (I tell this to my grad students): as long as you are alive, you don’t have any major problems. When you die, other people might have problems, but you don’t have any at all.

  13. Not if you end up drowning on your own fluid before you expire. And you have to be a psychopath to not care about the problems you leave behind for other people when you pass away.

  14. I haven’t looked at if they would count this as coronavirus deaths in countries like UK. Would this be counted as a main cause of death in the UK or USA?

  15. You have to be mentally ill to believe that that coronavirus is not such a problem because like chemotherapy, it ends up killing more cancer cells than good cells, and coronavirus will basically kill the type of white people who are most likely to vote for him.

  16. AnonFromTN says

    OK, you are a pessimist. That’s likely in the genes, so you can’t be blamed for it. To each his own (BTW, I was surprised to discover that this phrase is ascribed to Cicero).

  17. The first wave of coronavirus pandemic in Russia (which has been primarily in Moscow), is seems now at the plateau.

    Here relative to tests:

    However, it has now been (due to very incompetent government) seeded around the country, so it will likely virus transmissions will survive at a slow and low rate in different areas, through the summer.

    Then the question is whether a “second wave” can be avoided in September/October/November, without requiring another expensive lockdown. An additional question, is whether the rate of spread of the virus might be reduced by temperatures below 5 degrees as was originally believed ( ), so that the winter might help suppress any second wave.

    Iran seems to be showing that second wave can be a real danger, if the first wave is not sufficiently cut down. This is daily new infections in Iran according to Worldometers:

    By comparison, in China, where there is no second wave, as they correctly cut down the first wave before lifting self-isolation.

  18. songbird says

    I think Trump will win. (not that it really matters)

    A Republican just won a special election for the 25th District in California. First time since 1998 that Republicans were able to flip a Democratic-held House seat in California. That was a pretty big shock, though, to be fair, the guy did have an Hispanic name.

    The district is 45.83% white/35.32% Hispanic.

    Also, keep in mind that Trump signed the cover letter for the Corona unemployment bucks.

  19. For what its worth I believe that the antibody tests heavily overestimate the coronavirus spread, I find it hard to believe that 3 percent of rural New York has corona.

  20. AnonFromTN says

    Also, keep in mind that Trump signed the cover letter for the Corona unemployment bucks.

    There is also Trump’s name on Corona checks. Looks stupid, but likely effective: most smart people don’t get these checks, anyway.

  21. Blinky Bill says
  22. silviosilver says

    Down my way, I think you’re much more likely to hear “each to his own” than “to each his own.” 4:3 to the former on google, fwiw.

  23. silviosilver says

    The minimizers’ latest hero, one Knut Wittkowski, claims that second wave talk is bunk:

    But shutting down schools, driving the economy against the wall – there was no reason for it. The only reason that this nonsense now goes on and on, and people are inventing things like this ‘second wave’, which is going to force us to change society and never live again, is that the politicians are afraid of admitting an error.

  24. Blinky Bill says

    You’re a lucky man silviosilver, where I live this is the standard I usually hear.

  25. What do people here think of the Chinese Ambassador to Isreal dieing? Assassination?

  26. The Soft Parade says

    Old pseudo russian joke:

    I’d rather have a bottle in front of me, than a frontal lobotomy.

    Coronavirus minus fear = flu.

  27. AnonFromTN says

    I guess I live in an ivory tower. Except for janitors and store cashiers, everyone I talk to either has a PhD, or is in a grad program to obtain it, or in college planning to go to grad or med school. I talked a lot more with regular people back in the USSR than I do in the US. (I don’t count saying “Hi” to my neighbor when I mow my grass and he mows his).

  28. AnonFromTN says

    Do you expect to find out the truth? You must be naïve. BTW, that guy was Chinese ambassador to Ukraine before that.

  29. songbird says

    I liked the previous guy:

    In a press conference in Tel Aviv, acting ambassador Dai Yuming said of the Israeli ban: “I feel bad and sad. Because it actually recalled [for] me, the old days, the old stories, that happened in World War II, the Holocaust. Many Jewish [people] were refused when they tried to seek assistance. Only very, very few countries opened their doors, one of them is China. I hope Israel will never close their door to the Chinese,” he said.

    Maybe, he’ll come back.

  30. Lars Porsena says


    Here is data on Iceland from the New England Journal of Medicine:

    Targeted testing Mar 16 – Mar 31, N=1044, no symptoms = 94.3%

    That is damn high. Official Iceland data according to Bing:

    1802 confirmed cases, 1786 recovered, 10 dead.

    The N on that study represents 57% of all confirmed cases in Iceland. Iceland has a CFR of 0.5% vs, 1% for most other western countries, vs a global average of 6.7%.

    Iceland has a population of 364,134. 1802/364,134 = 0.5% of the population infected. This is not antibody studies, this is confirmed cases confirmed by laboratory analysis and including genetic sequencing of the virus RNA to determine strain data and track source of infection. And this is not extrapolating the infected rate to the untested population either. Just confirmed numbers.

    If we extrapolate from the test sample to the population, all persons tested was N=7275. 1044/7275 = 14% of Iceland. Not valid to do but it gives you an idea.

    There are a couple more studies in my comment history. Here is a news report about 1 in Italy:

    These results are also indicated by a testing survey carried on an entire Italian town of Vo (population 3,300), where the results showed that more than 50% of all cases are asymptomatic.

    The whole population of the village was tested, and 3% of the residents tested positive. Then, after a two-week lockdown, the population was tested again. The transmission had been reduced by 90% and the results were confirmed: the majority of cases seem to be asymptomatic.

  31. songbird says

    Down my way, I think you’re much more likely to hear “each to his own”

    It is similar in Spanish. Are you surrounded by Spics? Actually, I’m joking – I doubt they’d phrase it quite that way, as it is expressed more clearly in Spanish.

    4:3 to the former on google, fwiw.

    There’s a phrase “each to his own____” which has a separate meaning from the idiom “to each his own.”

  32. Limonov: The Outrageous Adventures of the Radical Soviet Poet Who Became a Bum in New York, a Sensation in France, and a Political Antihero in Russia

    The Wiki bio on him while he was in NY suggests such:,_1974%E2%80%931980

    Awhile back, a source told me that he went bonkers after his relationship with someone ended. Said source said that Limonov vandalized the office of Novoye Russkoye Slovo, when it was an ardent proponent of White Russian views.

  33. Divine Right says

    I wouldn’t put too much stock into that. CA-25 followed a string of victories by the democrats against Donald Trump. Also, many are misrepresenting what happened there. CA-25 was previously a republican House district (since 1993) before Katie Hill flipped it; CA-25 went for Mitt Romney in 2012 and George W. Bush twice. I don’t think this presages any kind of victory for the republicans in the 2020 election. Republicans tried using the same logic before the 2018 midterms, but it didn’t turn out that way. The democrats took the House in a near landslide (41 House seats) and picked up 7 governorships. Even though republicans gained 2 Senate seats, the election put the democrats in a good position to potentially flip the senate in 2020.

    Vanity Fair has a good piece relating how Donald Trump’s own campaign knows he’s losing badly.

    “Trump’s Feeling Is, ‘Why Are We Losing Everywhere?’”: With Advisers Feuding and Numbers Plummeting, Trump Eyes Campaign Shake-up”

    Recent internal polls show Trump trailing Joe Biden in six swing states, a data point that augurs a landslide loss in November. “The swing state polls are horrific,” a prominent Republican briefed on the numbers told me.

    On top of everything, there is also fear in Trumpworld that Senate Republicans might finally break from him if the polls get bad enough. “The numbers are fucking terrible,” another former West Wing official said. “There’s massive anxiety in the GOP that he’s gonna take them all down with him.”

    The public has also turned against Trump on his handling of the pandemic:

    The CBS News poll found that 57 percent of respondents said they believe Trump is doing a bad job handling the virus and 43 percent said the president is doing a good job. The findings represent a 5-point dip in support for the president from April and a loss of 10 points since March.

    Also, keep in mind that Trump signed the cover letter for the Corona unemployment bucks.

    I also wouldn’t put any stock into that making much of a difference. The total amount was trivial, and Trump’s party has shown zero inclination to continue those payments. Worse, the economy will still be bad on election day as the virus death toll mounts. The safe bet is that Donald Trump is going down in flames unless Joe Biden 1) picks Stacey Abrams or Kamala Harris as his vp 2) has an Alzheimer’s meltdown in the debates.

  34. Philip Owen says

    You do not understand how the EU works. “unelcted bureaucrats=Brexit for Brains”. Go out more and start thinking for yourself.

  35. silviosilver says

    Lol. I’ve heard plenty of that too in my time. I don’t really mind shooting the shit with bogans every now and then, especially when I’m drunk. Couldn’t do it every day though.

    I wonder if the class equivalent in other countries/languages sound as repellent. The only example I have any experience with (and not much) is the ghetto nagger in America. Although they’re often incomprehensible, they don’t sound all that distinct to better educated blacks to my ear.

  36. Daniel Chieh says

    “to each their own” is the PC norm now

  37. newsradio says

    Timing is certainly interesting.

    Pompeo went to Israel last week to get Israel not to trade or invest with China and to get Israel to become more hostile towards China and join the US side in the new Cold War:

    ” US To Israel: No More Chinese Deals; Pompeo’s Flying Visit
    Israeli officials said the message relayed during Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s hours-long visit included a very specific political warning – Israel must stop any action that strengthens the Chinese Communist Party, even if that means canceling projects already planned. ”

    China has turned towards more aggressive and proactive diplomacy which it calls “wolf warrior diplomacy” in recent months. This has challenged to some degree the anti-China US narrative on coronavirus.

    If the US wanted to kill a Chinese ambassador or diplomat to “send a message” in response to “wolf warrior diplomacy”, I would imagine Israel would be the best place to do so because of the close ties between the US and Israel and particularly the Netanyahu administration.

    ” Interpreting China’s ‘Wolf-Warrior Diplomacy‘

    What explains the sharper tone to China’s overseas conduct recently?”

  38. US To Israel: No More Chinese Deals

    Because Netanyahu loves China’s government, and Peking responded with enormous investments into Israel (perhaps beginning when Obama was disengaging America from Israel).

    I have sadly not visited Israel since early 2018 – but at that time, I was wondering why it was flooded with Chinese businessmen and Chinese workers (you don’t expect to see Chinese faces everywhere in the Middle East).

    China has bought a lot of strange things in Israel, like seaports, but also 56% of the shares of the main kibbutz dairy farms (for $2,5 billion).

    China also sends thousands of Chinese construction workers into Israel, which you see all over. This is a sad story, as Israel has one of the worst safety situations in the world for construction workers – so Chinese construction workers are killed almost every week in Israel. Here is an interesting article about their unpleasant conditions:

  39. people are inventing things like this ‘second wave’,

    It seems surely to be just “magical thinking” to say there cannot be a second wave, if the first wave does not end with an overwhelming suppression of the virus in the territory.

    If rate of infection, which was below 1, then goes above 1 for a sustained time in a country – which is possible where the epidemic is spread around different regions and therefore not easy to have surveillance of – then there is the second wave. It seems to be happening in Iran at the moment.

    Problem with the situation in Russia, is that the government encouraged the virus to spread around the country (even in late March they intentionally send infected people from the airports in Moscow, to their home cities).

    Although the summer weather, will reduce the rate of infection now – it may be that somewhere in the country it will be high enough to sustain the presence of the virus until September/October, when it may again become more difficult to reduce the rate of infection due to its seasonality – resulting in second wave. With the dispersion to many parts of the country, surveillance of this becomes more difficult also. On the other hand, in China, where there was interregional quarantine combined with the lockdown, it was possible to fully suppress the detectable spread of the virus at the end of the first wave.

  40. I don’t expect to find the truth, but it is important to question these things rather than default on the idea that this guy had a heart attack.

  41. Jaakko Raipala says

    In other words, the same journalists and polls who claimed that Trump had no chance in 2016 claim that Trump has no chance in 2020.

    By election time the corona panic will be over and it will be obvious that there’s no real crisis outside of a few cities like New York that won’t vote for Trump anyway – and the rest of the country won’t have much sympathy for their whining since they’ll view it all as a mess up of the local governors.

    I would bet on Trump but betting agencies are in his favor so much that there’s no money to be made (too bad I only made small bets last time).

  42. Biden is a few percentage points ahead of Hillary at the same point of time, and Trump only won the Mdwest by 70000 votes, so yes Biden can take this, and is less unlikeable than Hillary.

  43. Look at a google earth map of what rural New York looks like, those villages and hamlets are so isolated I find it hard to believe that 3% of the population there are infected. Plus maybe the test is picking up previous coronavirus infections instead, like the colds.

  44. Pericles says

    Lol, Katie Hill is the one caught on camera smoking weed and fondling her subordinates without clothes on. And didn’t she have an iron cross tattoeed on her crotch too? Very funny. There are a lot of democrat pervs around these days. The PA health blob-tranny is a fine current example but for now, Nipples Cuomo takes the cake.

    Anyway, I don’t consider Vanity Fair or The Hill to be reliable sources. They tried to blackpill us last time and they will try it again. And there was plenty of fake stats back then too.

  45. Europe Europa says

    I think the more non-white the US becomes, the closer it will move culturally and politically towards Europe. Old stock “Anglo-Americans” are traditionally anti-European, they don’t like the Brits, they don’t like the French, etc, and historically have consciously made efforts to differentiate American culture and ways from anything European.

    Historically US architecture and urban planning seem to have deliberately avoided any British/European influences in favour of “Americana”. They traditionally have gone for modernist architecture, grid systems, big wide roads, etc. Basically the antithesis of traditional British/European. This is in contrast to places like Quebec, Argentina, Brazil, etc, where urban planning has traditionally mirrored the old world, deliberately so I would say.

    The almost pathological attachment to the English (Imperial) unit system over Metric is typical of the anti-European mentality of old stock Americans, the irony that English units are as European as Metric seems to be lost on them.

    As the US becomes more Hispanic and generally less Old stock Anglo, I notice these anti-European traits are gradually becoming less common. I think Hispanics feel a lot more connected with the “old world”, especially Spain, than old stock Anglo Americans do. I suspect in future a majority non-Anglo US will merge with Europe culturally and politically and the two won’t be such the distinct entities they have historically been.

  46. Blinky Bill says

    bought a lot of strange things in Israel

    Strategic things.

  47. Lars Porsena says

    those villages and hamlets are so isolated

    As compared to Iceland?

    Essex County New York:

    Along with Hamilton County, Essex is entirely within the Adirondack Park.

    Essex: 8 people / square km
    Hamilton: 2.8/km

    Iceland: 3.4/km

  48. AnonFromTN says

    I agree that “heart attack” is a pretty lame excuse. Not to mention that there are quick-acting poisons that induce heart attack, virtually indistinguishable from the real one at post-mortem a few hours later. However, as this happened in Israel, our chances for impartial investigation are as slim as if it happened in the US or UK. I am sure Chinese authorities are aware of that.

  49. Trying to figure out possible motive or mechanism behind the death of the ambassador made me think about a Southern politicians who once said: “The only way I can lose this election is if I’m caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy.” Clearly a sign of chutzpah and hubris. A dead body in the besd is what is needed to reach some people.

    Who did wake up with the dead ambassador in bed? Obviously it is Netanyahu who few days before was directly told by Pompeo:

    Pompeo came to Israel with a very strict message – stop all Chinese investment in Israel, either in high tech companies or infrastructure.

    Good relations between Israel and China have caused heartache in the relationship between Washington and Jerusalem. For example, Israel was forced to cancel the sale of the Phalcon Airborne Early Warning System to China during the Camp David summit after money had changed hands. Israel was forced to compensate China for the cancellation.

    The Israeli security organizations are very concerned about Chinese involvement, especially at two strategic sites where the sensitivity is particularly high. One is control of the light train now being built here that passes close to Kirya, the site that includes the Ministry of Defense, IDF headquarters and the air force’s high command.

    The message to reach the hard headed and corrupt people like Netanyahu must be delivered in a very hard way. So now Netanyahu with a dead body in his bed has a reason and an excuse – the Chinese will be understanding – to do what he was asked in the message delivered by Pompeo.

  50. What possible Motive is there for Israel to assassinate the Chinese ambassador?

    The motive is to show that jews tolerate no challenge to their rule, China must kow tow to the international jew and be a good little ZOG puppet.

  51. brabantian says

    An Israeli poster on 4 chan said Shin Bet, Israel’s internal ‘Mossad’, killed the Chinese Ambassador at China’s request, after Du Wei tried to defect and share info on China bio-warfare labs, and then was double-crossed.

    Other Israeli posters quickly joined in Hebrew, saying to the first poster:

    Delete it you fool
    Say you lost all your sanity? Missing some screw or something?
    Wipe it out fast, people entered the prison for life on less

    Healthy-seeming, age in late 50s Chinese ambassador to Israel Du Wei, was found dead at his home in Herzliya near Tel Aviv on 17 May.

    This was just 4 days after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo broke international quarantine to visit Israel on 13 May.

    And shortly after Du Wei had publicly criticized Pompeo’s aggressive charges accusing China of guilt in causing the global ‘covid-19 pandemic.’

    Other Israeli posters say the assassins could have come from the large Chinese worker community in Israel.

    Du Wei had been publicly criticizing the USA’s Pompeo over coronavirus accusations … Was this genuine, or perhaps a cover for defecting?

    For a Chinese person – or indeed anyone – inclined to be a dissident, a dangerous mistake is not realising that the world’s major governments seem to be often covertly working together, tho superficially ‘opposed.’

    Did the now-dead Ambassador make the mistake of trusting the USA and Israel with his life?

  52. Philip Owen says

    The Union of the United Kingdom will be gone (has gone economically, NI is staying in the EU) centuries before the European Union dissolves. What we need in Wales is a referendum like the Brexit one. No immigrants allowed to vote. In this case, the immigrants would of course be English.

  53. Kent Nationalist says

    “The memory which they will never lose of their former greatness may well kindle a spark of hatred in the Welsh and encourage them to rebel from time to time; for they cannot forget their Trojan blood and the majesty of their kings who once ruled over Britain, a realm which was so great and a dynasty which lasted so long. During the military expedition which Henry II, King of the English, led against them in South Wales in our own lifetime,623 an old man living in Pencader (which means the Head of the Chair), who had joined the King’s forces against his own people, because of their evil way of life, was asked what he thought of the royal army, whether it could withstand the rebel troops and what the outcome of the war would be. ‘My Lord King,’ he replied, ‘this nation may now be harassed, weakened and decimated by your soldiery, as it has so often been by others in former times; but it will never be totally destroyed by the wrath of man, unless at the same time it is punished by the wrath of God. Whatever else may come to pass, I do not think that on the Day of Direst Judgement any race other than the Welsh, or any other language, will give answer to the Supreme Judge of all for this small corner of the earth.”

    “If the Welsh would only adopt the French way of arming themselves, if they would fight in ordered ranks instead of leaping about all over the place, if their princes could come to an agreement and unite to defend their country – or, better still, if they had only one prince and he a good one – living as they do in a country so inaccessible and so well protected, I cannot see how so powerful a people could ever be completely conquered. If they were united, no one could ever beat them.”

  54. I think ALL of those antibody tests are heavily overestimating things, didn’t the Chinese say that they conducted tests that indicated that only 2 to 3 percent of Wuhan’s population was infected, considering how late before they locked Wuhan down.

  55. Blinky Bill says
  56. Blinky Bill says

    NI is leaving with the rest of the UK.

    The Good Friday Agreement states that “the Secretary of State” should call a referendum “‘if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.”

  57. Blinky Bill says

    The chances of a referendum this year are virtually nil.

    And of future years ?

    Today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to be lucky once. You will have to be lucky always.

  58. Lars Porsena says

    But what are all the antibody tests? I can think of two specifically, I might have heard about some others.

    The one in California that said ~80% of the public, and the one in Spain that said 5%. If I have seen any others, there might have been a couple small ones linked on Steve’s blog, I feel like they must have been in the 2-5% range besides that one from California. Happening in different countries on different dates.

    Personally I think they are low, and I also suspect that not everyone even needs antibodies.

    But, put antibodies aside. Iceland is effectively done with this virus. They have achieved an end to the pandemic without any mandates, society closures or general quarantine orders. They have about 8 total active cases right now.

    I don’t know if there will be a second wave, but for Iceland the first wave is over.

    So in the course of the infection, they detected 0.5% of their entire country as positive for corona infection while they were infected.

    But even Iceland only tested about 5-10% of their whole population. Positive tests/negative tests = 14%. If you extrapolate that to the other 90% of the population, .9*14 = 12.6% of the population of Iceland running around infected.

    Well, not all confirmed cases were test cases, the rest went to the hospital when they got sick and maybe diagnosed by symptoms. But…

    People who are infected and test positive for this virus are something like 50-95% asymptomatic, meaning they never get symptoms at all, ever. They can’t even tell they have it unless they are tested. Iceland data says 95%.

    Let’s assume 50%. 12.6%*.5= 6.3% of Iceland still running around infected without knowing.

    Iceland never told healthy untested people to quarantine or closed bars so they would have been running around. I don’t think there have been any antibody studies on Iceland.

    Spain, Italy, and Germany are also basically done and will soon be models to look at too, Germany with seemingly wildly different results, but Iceland was finished way sooner and is so much better documented so it’s easier to pull these numbers from studies I can find online right now.

    Whatever percentage of actually infected they have had, they are basically done at that percentage (for their population density and whatever else you want to adjust for it). If we assume the real number is 1% infected, covid seems to reach temporary herd immunity at 1% infected then. Which would kind of imply 99% implicit immunity for the general population. But that would mean a wicked Spanish Flu like fatality rate in a lot of places for everyone who got it.

    Alternatively, on the other ridiculous extreme end of the spectrum, if the real number is 99% of Iceland has already been infected, then that makes the fatality rate look like a normal coronavirus. Common cold. Weak tea cold even. In that scenario, it’s just insanely contagious and doesn’t end until it hits everyone.

    Same eventual fatality rate either way. In Iceland’s case it’s pretty close to final numbers (at least for this wave).

  59. Johann Ricke says

    I wouldn’t put too much stock into that. CA-25 followed a string of victories by the democrats against Donald Trump. Also, many are misrepresenting what happened there. CA-25 was previously a republican House district (since 1993) before Katie Hill flipped it; CA-25 went for Mitt Romney in 2012 and George W. Bush twice.

    Congressional districts change every 10 years, even when your political party has the governorship. The result in CA-25 – 56% to 44% – was the biggest margin a Republican had won there since the new district lines became effective in 2012.

    What’s striking here is that he beat the victory margin of 2 former Republican incumbents within those district lines. While not a bellwether and perhaps related to the personal charisma/political smarts of the specific candidate, it is remarkable. Given this unexpected result, it is clear that the Democrats are spinning it like a top to make it out to be a negative outcome. Note also that voter fraud ballot harvesting wasn’t enough to win it for the Democrats. This means that Democrats stand to lose ~10 House seats in California’s GOP-leaning districts this year, that the GOP narrowly lost in 2018.

    All the small business-owning Democrats and independents who voted against Trump because they did not like his body language/verbiage on race/ethnic issues are gonna be out in force to stick it to the Democrats because of the carnage Democratic lockdown policies have inflicted on their personal fortunes. Virtue-signaling is costless until it affects their pocketbooks.

  60. Anton 2042 says

    Why does every comment now have two identical bars with gigantic share buttons? Is this a late April fools joke?

  61. Anton 2042 says

    Yeah, seems to just be a bug. AK please remove my comments.

  62. Strategic things.

    Probably more like “Shiny things” – which caused a hit of dopamine, perhaps after a couple of bottles of wine, in the mind of the Chinese bureaucrats buying it.

    Israeli dairy is delicious and high quality, but it dominates the local market more because of import substitution and protectionism of the country. Israeli consumers are forced to pay very high prices for imported goods, and this allows the local (import substituting ones) to maintain very high prices too.

    Quality and taste of Israeli dairy is high, because the consumers are (unwillingly) forced to pay to luxury prices for it.

    With Tnuva – although it is delicious tasting dairy, Israeli consumers reached a limit with its high prices, and this resulted in the 2011 Cottage Cheese Protest.

    • As for buying seaports in Israel? It might seem like a good idea from a Chinese view, to create alternative to the Suez canal with using instead a high-speed freight train from Eilat in the Red Sea, to ship goods to the seaports on Israel’s Mediterranean coast into Europe.

    On the other hand, you would hope Chinese bureaucrats understand how powerful trade unions are in Israel, and that because of the union power and protesting, the Israeli port workers are one of the highest salary jobs in Israel. Managing a port in Israel, is probably one of the most expensive (in terms of labour costs) ports in the world.

  63. Ms Karlin-Gerard says

    The public shooting of Russian Ambassador in Turkey seems to me to be an inexplicably unclear situation.

    Turkish authorities claimed the POS who killed him was a Gulenist, our government hasn’t been vocal in agreeing or disagreeing with the Turkish conclusion.

  64. control of the light train now being built here that passes close to Kirya

    Journalist clickbait or paranoid fantasy of “Chinese threat”?

    Light rail in Tel Aviv will be owned and operated by the Israeli government. China Civil Engineering was hired to partner with an Israeli company in digging underground tunnels in which train will travel.

    Israel is a quite protectionist country, so when China works on digging there, they are 50/50 with a local company. Workers are from both nationalities. I don’t think logistics are suitable to “dig into Israel’s military bases” with half the workers being from the local company.

    In terms of relation of tunnel sites to the military fortress?

    It looks like the “red line” lightrail tunnel is only on an adjoining road, and you could get nearer to the fortress by walking there, or from nearby office buildings.

    Moreover, if Chinese civil engineering companies were discovered to exploit their contracts to “spy” on military fortresses in the customer country (for what purpose?) – then they would lose contracts all over the world.

    Why would China want to risk undermine one of their most successful civil engineering export companies, to spy on a military base, which may be within a hundred metres of one of the tunnels. It would be suicide for China’s civil engineering export business.

  65. The Chinese figures are just lies. There is plenty of evidence it’s still ticking away around China

  66. Pompeo is an interesting character. An Italian-American (so born Catholic), first in his class at West Point, then Harvard Law School; so a very smart man. He becomes a born again Christian, a deacon in an evangelical Church, who teaches Sunday school. Usually smart people convert to Catholicism or Orthodoxy, but not to Evangelical Christianity.

  67. newsradio says

    Pompeo is apparently half-Italian, so he may not have been raised Catholic or been very Catholic.

    Mike Pence is Irish-American, was raised Catholic, and became Evangelical in college. Pence is not as bright as Pompeo though, and says that he hated and struggled with law school at Indiana University.

  68. Pompeo is apparently half-Italian, so he may not have been raised Catholic or been very Catholic.

    Maybe. The point is that he probably wasn’t raised in an Evangelical household. Converting to Evangelical Protestantism is very rare for smart people (of course, there are smart people born into that faith who remain).

    Mike Pence is Irish-American, was raised Catholic, and became Evangelical in college.

    That is not surprising.

  69. Anonymous (n) says

    Wow you’re fucking stupid. If blacks (who vote democrat >90%) die at a rate 3 times greater than whites (who vote republican >60%) only a tard would not be able to understand this is mathematically unfavorable to democrat electoral fortunes. The fact you’re so atrociously stupid as to call those who understand this very simple math “mentally ill” is hilarious.

  70. songbird says

    I watched the documentary Planet of the Humans. Thought it was interesting, despite some flaws, such as an antinatalist message. I didn’t realize that the majority of Germany’s biomass program comes from trees sourced abroad. I’m guessing that most Germans don’t understand it either, from the government-produced propaganda I remember seeing (albeit a long time ago.)

  71. A teaser for those conspiracy theorists. Mapping the results of Forster and Yu onto the GISAID phylogeny tree and estimate the time of Most Recent Common Ancestor tMRCA for the two SARSCov2 samples Forster asserted to be closest gentically to the bat coronavirus Bat/RaTG13, the timeline is

    Do the red hot October 2019 dates remind you of something??

    Furthermore, there is a statistically significant correlation (yah yah correlation is not causation) between the national per capita COVID.19 infection rates with the per capita participants in the World Millitary Game at Wuhan,

    LogConfirmPMC = +2.70 +1.17*LogMilGamePMC; #n=163; Rsq=0.2094; p=8.19e-10 *** (VVSig)

    Unfortunately the dominant SARSCov2 clades in Wuhan is the GISAID Clades B or B2 are not the dominant clades A2a and B1 that ravaged Europe and America. However that does not rule out that someone Europeans or Americans with strong affinity to those particular strains accidentally or intentionally bringing them to Wuhan. In the GISAID 2020-04-18 dataset there is only a single sample of A2a among the many other strains in part of China far from Wuhan, and it can be shown from the GISAID phylogeny tree that it was most probably spread from USA.

    ### GISAID 2020-04-18
    Age | Clade | Strain
    99 | A2a | USA/NY-NYUMC12/2020 <– Global Clade A2a MaxAge, missing in May 08 dataset
    90 | A2a | USA/NY-NYUMC65/2020 <– Missing in May 08
    88 | A2a | USA/NY-PV08449/2020 <– Missing in May 08
    85 | A2a | USA/NY-NYUMC58/2020 <– Missing in May 08
    84 | A2a | USA/NY-PV08109/2020 <– Missing in May 08
    82 | A2a | USA/NY-NYUMC67/2020 <– Missing in May 08
    82 | A2a | USA/NY-PV08500/2020 <– Missing in May 08
    82 | A2a | USA/NY-PV08434/2020 <– Missing in May 08
    80 | A2a | USA/NY-PV08432/2020 <– Hurray!! Present in May 08
    80 | A2a | USA/NY-NYUMC25/2020 <– Hurray!! Present in May 08

    87 | A2a | Italy/TE4953/2020 <– Italy MaxAge
    86 | A2a | Italy/TE6195/2020 <– present in May 08
    80 | A2a | Italy/UniMI03/2020 <– present in May 08
    80 | A2a | Italy/TE4880/2020 <– present in May 08

    19 | A2a | NanChang/JX216/2020 <– China MaxAge, sole sample, present in May 08

    And in the GISAID 2020-05-08 dataset, the clade A2a simply explosively reproduced in Europe and America.

    ### GISAID 2020-05-08
    Rank| MaxAge | Clade | N | Country | Strain
    1| 101 | A2a | 73 | Italy | Italy/TE26425/2020 <— Clade A2a Global MaxAge
    2| 98 | A2a | 219 | Belgium | Belgium/PM-0324144/2020
    2| 98 | A2a | 158 | France | France/IDF3276/2020
    2| 98 | A2a | 75 | Luxembourg | Luxembourg/LNS3652733/2020
    5| 97 | A2a | 31 | Finland | Finland/13M3/2020

    6| 95 | A2a | 171 | USA | USA/NJ-NYUMC84/2020 <— USA MaxAge Clade A2a
    8| 94 | A2a | 67 | Australia | Australia/VIC1081/2020
    9| 93 | A2a | 57 | Spain | Spain/Valencia295/2020
    13| 90 | A2a | 47 | United Kingdom | England/20138017804/2020
    17| 86 | A2a | 106 | Germany | Germany/BAV-MVP0007/2020
    34| 69 | A2a | 9 | China | Fujian/IM3520014T/2020 <— China younger MaxAge Clade A2a
    –| 19 | A2a | NanChang/JX216/2020 <– prev China MaxAge

    Whats more the situation has become curiouser and curiouser. Normally as time goes by more older genetic Age SARSCov2 samples can be found. Yet for USA the more they sequence the younger the samples get, USA seems to be the only country to have negative SARSCov2 mutation rate (as that is the way Forster determined the mutation rate). USA has discovered the fountain of youth. There is a glaring hole at the top right hand corner for the USA data.

    An independent paper from Michigan State University with sample size of 6156 seems to confirm some of the above results.
    “Decoding SARS-CoV-2 transmission, evolution and ramification on COVID-19 diagnosis, vaccine, and medicine”

    57% of the SARSCov2 variants (Clusters 3, 4 and 5) found in Europe are not found in Asia and Cluster 1 has only a small foot print in Asia. Whether cluster 2 originated in Asia is relatively a minor issue compares to the size of the other clusters. Cluster 2 is dominant in Australia, UK and UKrane (??).

    More specific results for New York from Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, only 1/85 SARSCov2 sequenced was spread from Asia.
    “Introductions and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the New York City area”

  72. Page or File Not Found

  73. SARS-CoV-2 was already pre-adapted to human transmission.

    SARS-CoV-2 is well adapted for humans. What does this mean for re-emergence?
    Shing Hei Zhan, Benjamin E. Deverman, Yujia Alina Chan

    Two authors with: Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA

    “Our observations suggest that by the time SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in late 2019, it was already pre-adapted to human transmission to an extent similar to late epidemic SARS-CoV. However, no precursors or branches of evolution stemming from a less human-adapted SARS-CoV-2-like virus have been detected. ”

    “…and examine the environmental samples from the Wuhan Huanan seafood market. Importantly, the market samples are genetically identical to human SARS-CoV-2 isolates and were therefore most likely from human sources.”

    Where did RaTG13 come from?

    Was Shi Zhengli engaging in some cover up, alibi [for whom?] constructing when she published her January 23, 2020 paper:

    “…on January 23, Shi Zhengli released a paper indicating that CoV2 is 96% identical to RaTG13, a strain which her laboratory had previously isolated from Yunnan bats in 2013. However, outside of her lab, no one knew about that strain until January 2020.” – Yuri Deigin,

    The fact she revealed RaTG13 as her deus ex machina is somewhat odd, that RaTG13 which was sequenced and analyzed was not published and not cataloged soon after its discovery in 2013 is, I would think, strange. And supposedly there is no samples of RaTG13 in the lab. All they have is its sequence in the computer, though, this perhaps might be normal for lab procedures, which I know nothing about.

    RaTG13 is not that close to SARS-CoV-2.
    Reports show that pangolins are potentially the intermediate host, but pangolin viruses are 88–98% identical to SARS-CoV-2. In comparison, civet and racoon dog strains of SARS coronaviruses were 99.8% identical to SARS-CoV from 2003. In other words, we are talking about a handful of mutations between civet strains, racoon dog strains and human strains in 2003. Pangolins [strains of CoV2] have over 3000 nucleotide changes, no way they are the reservoir species.

  74. While drilling underground in Israel with this huge machine Chinese found tens of thousands of baby bones of children sacrificed by Jews to Baal and Moloch and Yahweh. The discovery is so explosive that it had to be covered up and in the process the envoy from China suddenly died.

  75. For those complaining about being banned on Facebook, right wingers always say how many lives are lost due to liberal ideology, well, how many lives are lost due to the authors here broadcasting their corona skeptic stuff? Like how many are taking their bad advice and losing their lives as a result.

  76. In the US black people are dying at 1.5 times or so, and the coronavirus is killing more Trump voters of the white voters proportionally, and killing 50,000 whites through neglect or deliberate policy in any case is not worth killing 200,000 black even if that is the case. Killing 50,000 whites just so you can kill 200,000 black and brown people, is too high a cost.

  77. Anonymous (n) says

    Even assuming your claims are true, the math still works out favorably for Republicans on a pure vote by vote basis. That is my only point, I’ll leave value judgments and morality discussions for others.

  78. If find the argument that there are 100 or even 20 asymptomatic cases for every 1 asymptomatic case absurd, the Chinese have done 300000 tests in Wuhan and uncovered only 26 asymptomatic cases. If there are really that many asymptomatic cases then China would not have been able to control the situation unless they locked down until a vaccine is discovered.

  79. Foreshadowing of the shooting of Russian Ambassador via Herschel Grynszpan resurrection.

    Sun 18 Dec 2016 01.00 EST
    Photo mystery of Jewish assassin used by Nazis to justify Kristallnacht

    19 December 2016 13:28 EDT
    Russian ambassador’s assassination in Turkey

    DEC 20, 2016
    Assassination of Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov was not terrorism, but retribution for Vladimir Putin’s war crimes

    “So I, for one, am shedding no tears for Andrei Karlov. Frankly, I’m surprised his murder didn’t come months ago. ”
    “After watching the death of Karlov, I could not help but remember the case of Ernst vom Rath, a Nazi diplomat in France, who was gunned down inside his consulate by a Jewish student in 1938.”

  80. Ms Karlin-Gerard says

    Well, Turkish authorities accuse the guy who did it of being a Gulenist, Gulen a probably pro-fag “moderate” cleric now exiled in….. America(!!)
    As far as I know, Gulen has not been enthusiastic about Turkish involvement in Syria. It could have been a lone nutjob, but who knows?

    Turkish authorities, unlike vindictive American dickheads, have continued treating us excellently as tourists and not harassed our businessmen or private citizens.

    There is also the inexplicable and unexplained Turkish coup attempt, blamed by the authorities on Gulen/US, that killed a couple of hundred and was rumoured that Russia pre-warned Erdoğan about it.

    It seems strange that the safety of millions of Russians (thank God) visiting has been completely fine, and yet this isolated, shocking killing of our Ambassador occurred with no hint of problems for anybody else.

  81. Dacian Julien Soros says

    If corona would be so effective against bn, I’d be going back to the States at the soonest. Bn are the greatest excuse (((they))) have for abusing any sort of competitive process for jobs.

  82. Dacian Julien Soros says

    Who cares? Stop deflecting. Your shithole (US? UK?) is infested just as badly as China, if not worse. You have elderly homes whose head count has halved in two months. There’s nothing like that halving in Albania or in Algeria. Does it matter if it’s a Chinese virus? Does it matter if the Chinese still have it or not?

    Are you claiming that you’d start showering daily, and perhaps wash your hands, if Rona was made in an American lab?

  83. What about a study on the non-Jewish white intellectual elite, like WASPS, which basically ran the US before WW2? What is their IQ level compared to East Asians, Ashkenazi Jews, Parsees, and Indian Brahmins?

  84. Rattus Norwegius says

    Do you really think that Northern Ireland will leave the UK? I doubt it.

  85. Lars Porsena says

    1 in 100 or 20 is the extreme high end. That would be 95% – 99%.

    What if it’s 50%?

    At any rate I don’t know anything about what’s going on in China, or who they are testing. There are 19 million people in Wuhan so if they did 300k tests, that is about 1% of the population tested. Why are most of them being tested, because they are sick? If they are testing the 1% sickest part of the population they would find much lower rates.

    At any rate, I don’t know where you get they only had 26 cases.

    That doesn’t control for presymptomatics, but that is showing China is seeing 78% asymptomatic.

    China seeing 59% asymptomatic or extremely mild and unreported.

    All the studies I have seen from anywhere, these numbers keep showing up.


    46 in a million tested, and they conducted about a million tests already in Wuhan in a week, so that is around 46 asymptomatic cases only. Chinese are saying that 5 percent of Wuhan is infected, hence why I said that the antibody tests for New York are heavily overstated, likely the true infection rate for NYC in percentage terms is at the mid single digits at most.

  87. Lars Porsena says

    Wuhan, May 19

    I thought China was basically done with covid.

    Wuhan, the capital of China”s Hubei province where the COVID-19 pandemic originated last December, has conducted more than 1 million nucleic acid tests over the past week

    Week of May 12th. What is this supposed to mean?

    The Global Times added that an antibody spot check of 11,000 people in April showed that 5 per cent had antibodies to the virus, which when extrapolated to the city”s 11 million inhabitants could mean that some 500,000 Wuhan citizens had contracted the virus at some point.

    Well, if that’s true… a hell of a lot more people, over 10 times more than previously thought to have caught it.

    46 people per million tested from 660 per million

    What is this supposed to mean? That is 46 asymptomatic per million people tested, not per million infected.

    It doesnt say the percentage asymptomatic/infected.

    It says asymptomatic/tested.

    And that number is 46 per million. How many positives per million?

  88. Lars Porsena says

    [blockquote]Chinese are saying that 5 percent of Wuhan is infected, hence why I said that the antibody tests for New York are heavily overstated[/blockquote]

    I have not seen antibody tests for New York show higher than 5%. But I have not seen antibody tests for New York. Are you claiming they are claiming higher?

    Whatever they are at, they are almost finished. Look at the graph of daily new cases for New York:

    [blockquote]6 in a million tested, and they conducted about a million tests already in Wuhan in a week, so that is around 46 asymptomatic cases only.[/blockquote]

    By the way, by “46 asymptomatic cases only” you mean “46 asymptomatic cases only last week”. Big difference.

  89. I mean I doubt that more than 5 or 6 percent if NYC is infected, if even that, in the rural areas a fraction of a percent is more realistic. According to this it is closer to 2 to 3 percent, although I would expect tests from hospital patient to actually slightly overstate infection rates.

  90. From the Russian Stalinist blogger Colonel Cassad:

    There’s a trend here…

    Last week I wrote to Anatoly that despite their apparent differences both Russia and Ukraine are birds of a feather or apples from same tree.

    The first Maidan was in Moscow in 1993.

    Both countries are in fact subservient to western interests.

    The only difference in my opinion is that Ukraine is more aligned with American interests, while Russia is more aligned with Germany.

    I have suspected for years that Putin might actually have been recruited by West German intelligence agency while he was working in DDR.

    That would explain why he was appointed in St Petersburg to manage the distribution of German government financial compensation to the Leningrad blockade survivors.

    Of cause the survivors did receive just a small portion of the funds.

    The rest was pocketed by Sobchak, Putin and his friends.

    Modern Russia and Ukraine have been created to impede each other’s development and keep the Eastern Slavs in a state of permanent conflict.

    Reducing their population and impoverishing both of them.

    While Indians scalp each other, the Cowboys take their lands and prepare reservations for them.

  91. Converting to Evangelical Protestantism is very rare for smart people (of course, there are smart people born into that faith who remain).


  92. Anatoly, off-topic, but how do present-day Russians feel about the 19th century Circassian genocide? Also, I’m presuming that present-day Russians oppose a mass right of return to Russia for Circassians nowadays, correct?

  93. RadicalCenter says

    Appreciate your analysis of CA-25 and agree.

    But for an area of disagreement: The economy isn’t devastated because of 90,000 (alleged) COVid-19 deaths in a country of 350 million — barely more than the flu season two years ago:

    It’s devastated, and will still be badly damaged come November, because of panicked irrational or bad-faith lockdowns by the president and governors.

  94. Some people who are not dumb convert to Mormonism when they marry Mormons (Mormons are generally nice and attractive people) or for cynical business reasons if they lived out West.

  95. Where did RaTG13 come from?

    Are you referring to that weasel that claimed that RaTG13 is fake?? RaTG13 is so far genetically closest to the SARSCov2. Whether it exists or not is more for medical reason to eradicate the potential source like eradicating the relevant related bat colonies. It makes little difference to the human phylogeny tree currently attached to it. Forster showed that the genetic difference between RaTG13 if it exists is about 18 significant mutations away from human SARSCov2. Forster simply assumed that the human patient 0 is only a mutation away from both USA/WA1/2020 and Guangdong/20SF012/2020 as in his diagram. However the human patient 0 can be anywhere along that 18 mutation links with the anchor for the human SARSCOv2 phylogeny tree anchored at the appropriate nearest candidate. Bedford who analyzed most of the SARSCov2 outbreaks in Washington state stated that the time difference RaTG13 and human SARSCov2 is about 50 years. The orignal source at this stage is vague enough to be anything though RaTG13 so far is the closest. It is infantile to imagine that if RaTG13 disappears the human SARSCov2 will also disappear. For example about 5,000 years ago people with y DNA haplogroup yHg R1b replaced almost all of the ancient European of yHg G. The common ancestor of R1b is not known, that does not mean that he did not exist. If he is fake then where are all the R1b descendants come from and will almost all European just disappear ??

    |–NODE_0000008 <– Most Recent Common Ancestor MRCA to Bat/RaTG13, Pangolin/Guangdong and Human/SARSCov2
    |—-pangolin/Guangdong/1/2020 <— Pangolin
    |—-pangolin/Guangdong/P2S/2019 <— Pangolin
    |—-bat/Yunnan/RaTG13/2013 <— Bat !!
    |—-NODE_0000011 <— Most Recent Human Common Ancestor ??
    |—-|USA/TX1/2020 *FA <— Bedford's earliest candidate
    |—-|-USA/AZ1/2020 #YA *FA <— Bedford's second earliest candidate
    |—-|–USA/IL1/2020 <— Bedford's third earliest candidate
    |—-|—-Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-01/2019 #YC *FB <– Wuhan later genetic strain
    |—-|—-Japan/KY-V-029/2020 #YC *FB

    Bedford's article was from January before much data are available. It is interesting that in his early phylogeny tree Bedford's earliest human strain for patient 0 is USA/TX1/2020.

    A more formal peer reviewed paper from Cell Journal about potential animal sources of SARSCov2 though little information on human sources,
    DOI: 10.20944/preprints202003.0091.v1
    “Predicting the Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2) Utilizing Capability as the Receptor of SARS-CoV-2”

    That weasel’s infantile assertions are laughable still there are plenty of suckers believing him.

    Merging Bedford’s phylogen tree with the GISAID 2020-04-18 phylogeny tree and mapping Forster’s assertion that USA/WA1/2020 and Guangdong/20SF012/2020 are the closest links to RaTG13, a rough merged phylogeny tree can be constructed. Who know it could be from the weasel coronavirus. In the merged phylogeny tree the potential patient 0 using Forster’s and GISAID data is about 6 mutations away and the rough tMRCA can be estimated. Using the GISAID phylogeny tree patient 0 is further up to accomodate Forster’s cluster B ancestor. Any new ancient age sample might change the structure of the tree. A proper estimation of the tMRCA will require computing resources more than a laptop can provide (the program can build the tree but crashed on determining the generation times).
    (Download to view larger chart).

  96. There are a lot of political hot air about China spreading SARSCov2 to US. It seems that the only sensible political message backed up with scientific facts was acoming from NY Governor Cuomo who asserted that the majority of NY COVID.19 cases were from Europe. “coronavirus-came-to-new-york-from-europe-not-china”

    If SARSCov2 is spread from China it could be assumed that the Chinese dominant clade of SARSCov2 will be significantly detected in US, especially along the west coast states like CA, OR and WA with large Chinese American population. However the reality is different.

    There is already a study for east coast New York from Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai that only a puny 1/85 SARSCov2 sequenced was spread from Asia. Note that from the paper on 2020 March NY had 85 sequenced samples including the A2a global MaxAge sample USA/NY-NYUMC12/2020 which was cited in the paper’s supplemetary dataset but on the GISAID May dataset that previous MaxAge global sample together with a few other high genetic age samples were missing and the number of sample had dropped down to 81 even when more new younger genetic age US NY samples were added. Of the 85 reported SARSCov2 sequences, the paper only identified ONE single sequences of clade B4 allegedly spread from Asia/Oceania. Cross referencing the paper’s supplementary (March) dataset with the GISAID 2020-04-18 dataset, that particular NY sample with MaxAge 72 which could be the grand-daddy of the global B4 clade can be identified,

    Clade | AgeNY | CollectionNY | StrainNY | AgeAsi | CollectionAsi | Strain
    Asi | LocAsi
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 44 | 2020-01-28 | Australia/QLD01/2020 | Gold Coast
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 42 | 2020-01-30 | Australia/QLD02/2020 | Gold Coast
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 8 | 2020-02-05 | Australia/QLD03/2020 | Gold Coast
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 37 | 2020-02-05 | Australia/QLD04/2020 | Gold Coast
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 25 | 2020-02-08 | Australia/VIC07/2020 | Melbourne
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 54 | 2020-01-30 | Guangdong/2020XN4243-P0035/2020 |
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 39 | 2020-01-25 | Shanghai/SH0002/2020 |
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 54 | 2020-01-25 | Shanghai/SH0003/2020 |
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 27 | 2020-01-30 | Shanghai/SH0035/2020 |
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 66 | 2020-02-02 | Shanghai/SH0117/2020 |
    B4 | 72 | 2020-03-14 | USA/NY-PV08148/2020 | 31 | 2020-02-03 | Singapore/4/2020 | Singapore

    (Is SARSCov2 clade B4 the “Tom Hank” clade from Australia Gold Coast?? Was he catching that from Australia or did he bring that to Australia?? Australia Prime Minister seemed to have mentioned that 80% of SARSCov2 were coming from USA. An Australian government minister was confirmed to be infected after returning from USA.)

    The MaxAge NY sample of 72 is much older than the MaxAge of 66 from Asia/Oceania even though the NY sample was collected at a much later day because of the US pussyfooting delays in SARSCov2 testing. Genetic age is related to the genetic generation. The birth date of your uncle can be much LATER than that for you child. And conviniently sample USA/NY-PV08148/2020 also seems to have disappear from the GISAID 2020-05-08 dataset. Shanghai is the main Chinese financial hub with many of foreigners working there. It is not even sure if the MaxAge sample from Shanghai is from ethnic Chinese patient.
    To continue the same approach as the NY paper using the public accessible GISAID dataset downloaded on 2020-05-08 for the rest of US states, especially for the US east coast nearest to China or states that have relatively higher percentage of Chinese Americans. The snapshot of the results from the GISAID sequenced sample downloaded on 2020-05-08 (full table in the previous thread mentioned above). The dominant SARSCov2 clades for China are B, B2 and A2a.

    As can be seen for clade B there are only 1, 0 and 1 samples respectively for CA, OR and WA, puny compared to the other clades like A2a. Gonzalez-Reiche et al from Icahn School of Medicine attributed the origin of clade B from Europe. GA and SC have small number of clade B but high in percentages which might be because of relatively high number of Chinese students or racial profiling of the COVID.19 tests. For clade B2 there are 0, 0, and 0 for CA, OR and WA respectively. For A2a China only has 13/141=9.22% while US has 934/1211=77.13%. From the GISAID phylogeny tree it can be shown that the Chinese A2a sample were spread from USA. It is especially obvious where on the 2020-04-18 dataset China has only 1 sample that is traced from the GISAID phylogeny tree to be spread from USA. Gonzalez-Reiche et al attributed the origin of clade A2a to Europe/NorthAmerica.
    “Introductions and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the New York City area”

  97. sudden death says

    What about all this possible controversy regarding RaTG13?:

    In the Wuhan Institute of Virology 2013 cave study, and all the genomic accessions released from it, KP876505-KP876546, there is no mention of a RaTG13 strain. A BLAST genomic analysis also shows that there is no identical match to RaTG13 other than KP876546: BtCoV/4991. Instead, the authors mention how BtCoV/4991 is a novel betacoronavirus strain linked to SARS and it is the only SARS-linked strain they found in that cave (2). A 2018 study in China found the bat SL-CoV strain ZC45 was able to infect and cause disease similar to COVID-19 in suckling rats, and they found that bat transmission to humans was possible without an intermediate host, such as a civet cat, via the ACE2 receptor (4). No RaTG13 strain is reported in this study, the Yunnan cave studies discussed, nor in any of the Nature’s origin article sources (1,2,3,4,5).

    Therefore, these authors have obfuscated the origin of this virus, that RaTG13 was previously found in 2013 to be a SARS-linked novel betacoronavirus called BtCoV/4991 and they changed the name from BtCoV/4991 to RaTG13.

    No information exists about RaTG13 before 2020. No genomics were published before then, and no information exists about RaTG13 from the 2013 Yunnan cave studies where they found and published the genomics for BtCoV/4991 and dozens of other coronaviruses (2). The Wuhan Institute of Virology authored both of these studies; they are fully aware that RaTG13 is BtCoV/4991.

    If they obfuscated the origin of this virus, how can we be sure the RaTG13 genome is accurate and not manipulated? In this context we would need independent third-party access to the original specimen to extract the genetics.

    This is also unlikely to be due to a change in naming-convention, as the studies in China establishing a close link with SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 and the link between SARS-COV-2 and BtCoV/4991 were both published in very early February 2020 (1,3).

    Therefore, RaTG13 should otherwise be invalid for epidemiological and origin-based research studies, and studies using this genome as part of their conclusion should be retracted unless an independent third party can verify the genomics from the original specimen.

  98. You dont get it. It is inmaterial if RaTG13 exists, like there is NO EVIDENCE that Adam and Eve exist but the human race is still there. There are plenty of potential hosts for the SARSCov2.

  99. Absurd Adam and Eve analogy. But let’s stay with it: The question is where did SARSCov2 come form. And to answer this question Zhengli Shi presented the missing chapter from the Genesis with RaTG13. Some think that perhaps Zhengli Shi wrote that chapter herself that it did not come form God but was fabricated by her. Zhengli Shi has no evidence that RaTG13 really existed.

    When white mummies were found in Eastern China they were a threat to some foundation myths that the Chinese cherished. Frequently the mummies were destroyed. The mummies evidence did not suggest that the Chinese do not exist it only showed that Chinese were not the only people who were there but it was sufficiently inconvenient and uncomfortable to the Chinese that they tampered with the evidence.

  100. Blinky Bill says

    When white mummies were found in Eastern China

    You lost me there, do you mean Western China/Tarim Basin ?

  101. Yes, Western China. Sorry.

  102. Philip Owen says

    Too many individual replies on the same note here for me to answer them one by one.

    Under the cover of Covid-19, The Jonson Gvoernmetn has accepted that the EU customs border will be in the Irish sea, not at the Irish border. Northern Ireland is therefore de facto in everything that ever mattered in the EU (without a vote rather like Russia). The sort of flim flam about the ECJ that so exerted the Europhobes never did matter. The EU is still basically a trade treaty.

  103. Philip Owen says

    Mae’r ateb yn saesneg.

  104. Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov hospitalized with “lung damage and a suspected Covid-19 infection”

    Chechen Leader…Ramzan Kadyrov [age 43] has been hospitalized in Moscow with a suspected coronavirus…Chechen doctors recommended that Kadyrov seek treatment there after his “condition began deteriorating rapidly,” Baza said…Kadyrov has been diagnosed with lung damage and a suspected Covid-19 infection…

    While he initially dismissed the coronavirus, Kadyrov has since imposed one of Russia’s harshest coronavirus lockdowns, sealing off the region’s internal borders, enacting a curfew and promising severe punishments for violating quarantine.

    If confirmed, his infection would make him one of Russia’s highest-profile figures to contract the virus, following Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Russia’s culture, construction and education ministers.

    Felines can carry COVID — maybe he caught it from his pet tiger. Given his age, I would guess he’ll be fine, though even a hospital stay seems like an unlucky break.

  105. Offtopicmyass says

    Hi yeah , so what if genius is the ability to make connections where others cannot – in the comment section this may appear in a form that to you just , lawd have mercy , seems incongruent with your latest formalized presentation…

    For instance , I have been reminded of messages or topics in song lyrics by a number of articles here at UNZ and so I went ahead and posted the video only to have it , and the possible NONLINEAR perspective offered , disappeared by the ultra-rationalist gatekeepers of said sections… LAME !

    Try thinking of the comment section more like poetry and stuff … getting anywhere healthy is gonna require that we open up the clamp here a lil bit – ok PointDorkster ?

    Fer cryin out loud…