Open Thread 21

Today I learned an American journalist friend was stabbed in Moscow. (Not, he was not anti-Putin, quite the contrary in fact, so it won’t be highlighted in the Western media).

Fortunately the injury seems to be quite minor, though I wish him the best for a speedy recovery regardless.

russia-deaths-external-causes-1990-2016So about crime.

All things considered, Moscow is pretty safe; at any rate, I don’t fear walking the streets at night, even though my neighborhood is one of the more prole ones. It’s certainly a world away from American inner cities and the more “enriched” European banlieues. And this is reflected in both statistics and the “background rate” at which I hear of crime victimization from friends, relatives, and acquaintances.

For my part, the only “bad” experiences I had since returning here was a drunk aggressively demanding a cigarette, and some Gastarbeiters who insisted I pay more for moving some furniture than we had agreed on. Pretty irrelevant, all things told – about what I’d expect in a year in Berkeley.


Justice Dept. to Take On Affirmative Action in College Admissions.

Predictably, some people are very unhappy about Trump doing anything for the most underrepresented ethnic minority at the Ivy Leagues relative to IQ (Gentile Whites).

Another take:


Specifically, how likely were global innovators and leaders intellectually talented or gifted when younger? This paper reviews retrospective data on multiple US samples (Total N = 11,745), including Chief Executive Officers, federal judges, politicians, multi-millionaires and billionaires, business leaders, elite journalists, and the “most globally powerful men and women”, examining to what extent these groups were in the top 1% in general intellectual talent in youth, also examining their educational backgrounds. About 50% of these leaders were in the top 1% of our indicator of ability, so overrepresented by a factor of about 50. Elite education, and especially the impact of Harvard, was notable, suggesting that in addition to talent, elite education and networks were important.

Unsurprising to anyone who follows the IQsphere, but it’s great to have all the research in one place nonetheless.


The time it took to move computers from average human to peak human performance across various domains – typically, on the order of several decades for many board games – suggests we should not expect a runaway superintelligence).


  • I have nothing to add to Alexander Mercouris’ comprehensive analysis of the Russia sanctions Trump was cajoled into signing:

Two particularly acute observations. Trump’s (or his team’s) strategic acuity:

In doing so the Presidential Statement calls into question the wisdom of the whole measure, for example by worrying that its effect will be to “drive China, Russia, and North Korea much closer together”. It is actually remarkable that Donald Trump – a person wholly inexperienced in exercising public office – seems to be the only prominent public official in the US who worries about this.

And care in sidestepping any possible grounds for impeachment:

Indeed the more I think about this bizarre sanctions law the more I wonder whether the impeachment scenario I have just outlined may have been the very scenario that it was intended to engineer.


Dugin is not Putin’s advisor, let alone the “top” one. He is a nutcase who is far better known in the West than he is in Russia.


Can’t be bothered reading it all, but a quick skim suggests it’s very tame, common sense stuff.

But the Respectable People are still very triggered by it, so he’ll probably be fired.

If you feel isolated by this, that your views are basically unwelcome in tech and can’t be spoken about… well, that’s a fair point. These views are fundamentally corrosive to any organization they show up in, drive people out, and I can’t think of any organization not specifically dedicated to those views that they would be welcome in. I’m afraid that’s likely to remain a serious problem for you for a long time to come. But our company is committed to maintaining a good environment for all of its people, and if one person is determined to thwart that, the solution is pretty clear.

I’m writing this here, in this message, because I’m no longer at the company and can say this sort of thing openly. But I want to make it very clear: if you were in my reporting chain, all of part (3) would have been replaced with a short “this is not acceptable” and maybe that last paragraph above. You would have heard part (3) in a much smaller meeting, including you, me, your manager, your HRBP, and someone from legal. And it would have ended with you being escorted from the building by security and told that your personal items will be mailed to you. And the fact that you think this was “all in the name of open discussion,” and don’t realize any of these deeper consequences, makes this worse, not better.

Previous work has shown that a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C can be considered an upper limit on human survivability. … We project that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in South Asia are likely to approach and, in a few locations, exceed this critical threshold by the late 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions. The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus river basins.

Here’s a simulation that was run several years ago at a global level. South Asia even then looked like it would be the first major region to start becoming uninhabitable, which is incovenient, since it hosts about 20% of the world population.

* Jean Raspail says that publishing Camp of the Saints would be impossible now. He could be persecuted 87 different ways for it based on current French legislation.


Interesting to see the women mention both Charles Spearman and even Hans Eysenck (!).

  • Argument #97832 from Julia Ioffe on America’s pressing need for a big wall.




Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. Hector_St_Clare says

    “All things considered, Moscow is pretty safe; at any rate, I don’t fear walking the streets at night, even though my neighborhood is one of the more prole ones. It’s certainly a world away from American inner cities and the more “enriched” European banlieues.”

    While this statement is probably true as far as it goes, doesn’t it conceal more than it reveals? I’m broadly speaking pro-Russia and even more strongly pro-Belarus, and have a general preference for eastern Europe as opposed to the west, but the homicide data (which as Ron Unz notes, are the one crime that can’t be doctored), generally indicate that eastern Europe as a whole, including Russia and Belarus, are indeed more murderous places than the United States and much more so than western Europe.

  2. German_reader says

    That poll about US attitudes to Russia is pretty shocking (to me at least), US Democrats seem to have become totally unhinged.
    The predictions about the possible consequences of climate change in South Asia are also troubling.

  3. Typical American homicide: Shoot up in the streets between black guys in their 20s over drugs or something.

    Typical Russian homicide: Vodka binge amongst group of Slavic or native Siberian men in their 40s culminating in knife massacre.

    If you’re basically a normal middle-class person who doesn’t participate in the bingeing culture (in Russia) or go on jaunts to the ghetto (in the US) then you’re pretty much safe either way.

    This was not the case in the 1990s/early 2000s in Russia, when walking the streets past sunset wasn’t safe even in central Moscow.

  4. Peripatetic commenter says

    Are there really “numerous manipulated and selective quotations in the first volume of the book, detrimental to its trustworthiness” as claimed by this document?

  5. Peripatetic commenter says

    I am surprised that Sigmund Fraud appears on both lists.

  6. This was not the case in the 1990s/early 2000s in Russia, when walking the streets past sunset wasn’t safe even in central Moscow.

    My father said the same about the situation at that time in Omsk.

  7. Peripatetic commenter says

    From the book Panzer Commander by Colonel Hasn von Luck, page 72:

    Smolensk looked as though it had been abandoned. Destruction in the industrial quarters and of the bridges over the Dnieper was immense. In the midst of the ruins, Smolensk cathedral pointed to the sky. It appeared largely unharmed. I followed the women and the old men and as I entered the cathedral was deeply impressed by its beauty. It looked intact. The altar was adorned; burning candles and many icons richly embellished with gold bathed the interior in a festive light. As I went up to the altar with my companions, an old man, poorly dressed and with a flowing beard spoke to me in broken German.

    “Gospodin officer, I am a pope who used to preach here before the Lenin-Stalin era; I have been in hiding now for many years, scraping a living as a shoemaker. Now you have liberated our city. May I say a first mass in this cathedral?”

  8. Hector_St_Clare says

    German Reader: a large proportion of Americans are totally unhinged at any particular moment in time, due to partisan loyalty. There are plenty of bizarre and clearly false things believed by followers of both parties.

  9. German_reader says

    That’s certainly true (and much of the US right is pretty demented as well, I don’t dispute that). Most of America’s domestic squabbles however aren’t dangerous to the rest of the planet. This hysteria about Russia is, and it’s absolutely irresponsible how US liberals keep stoking that fire. In their own way they’re just as parochial as the dumbest redneck Trump supporter.

  10. Hector_St_Clare says

    Oh, I don’t disagree with you.

    BTW, since this is an open thread and you sorta like the AfD as I recall, what’s your opinion on the latest upheavals within AfD ranks?

    Regarding you southern neighbors it’s interesting to see that the Freedom Party has lost the strong lead that they had in the polls last year: right now they’re tied with the Social Democrats and well behind the conservatives. They may well make it into government as the weaker partner in a coalition (both Social Democrats and conservatives expressed openness to coalition with them), but it’s interesting that the mainstream conservatives rather than the ethnic nationalists are the big winners from the current dissatisfaction with liberalism.

  11. Julia Ioffe: “I didn’t speak English when I immigrated to the United States. Now, I get paid to write in it.”

    In what proportions does the reader think Ms Ioffe’s successful career is owed to:

    1 her startlingly unusual personal competence as an analyst and writer;

    2 her personal connections arising out of her education at Princeton;

    3 her personal and family connections arising out of her ethnic origins and loyalty;

    4 her willingness, nay enthusiasm, for writing exactly what the US sphere establishment elites want to see written on almost every topic.

    Do bear in mind though that the only acceptable responses involve attributing it to 1 and 2. Any percentage greater than 0 attributed to 3 might render you subject to prosecution in most of Europe and the UK, and any percentage greater than 0 attributed to 4 will lead to mockery as a paranoid conspiracy theorist.

    You have been warned. Next try the same exercise, mutatis mutandis, for Louise Mensch.

  12. German_reader says

    BTW, since this is an open thread and you sorta like the AfD as I recall, what’s your opinion on the latest upheavals within AfD ranks?

    That’s very hard to judge; there has been plenty of infighting within the party for years, and it’s not always easy to discern if it’s about different political programmes or just about persons looking for their own personal advancement. One interpretation of events (obviously pushed by mainstream media) is that the AfD is increasingly subverted by a genuinely far right network around Björn Höcke and Andre Poggenburg, the party leaders in Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt. There may be something to this, but obviously my personal values differ from those of mainstream journalists…in any case Frauke Petry seems to have lost the recent power struggles and is now in a rather weakened position. I’d say deservedly so since she came across as a power-hungry opportunist, and also started totally bizarre debates (like whether the AfD after the 2021 election – according to Petry’s imagination then as the strongest party – should be willing to enter a coalition with the Christian Democrats) that weren’t productive at all.

    In any case, the AfD’s political leadership doesn’t come across as very competent, and they’re attacked as crypto-Nazis by the media (plus all manner of physical attacks by Antifa types); according to most polls they will get below 10% in the election.
    And it’s not even that I “like” the AfD. There’s probably plenty to dislike both in their programme and among their candidates (who undoubtedly will include a fair share of nutcases). It’s more like voting for them is the ONLY way to show your dissent with the status quo regarding the immigration situation. Merkel has already pretty much made it clear that she intends to continue just as before and spouts bizarre phrases no thinking person can take seriously (her idea for a solution to the migration crisis is to remove Fluchtursachen – reasons for people becoming refugees…as if it were a realistic project that Germany or Europe could fix the problems of Africa, the Near East, Afghanistan etc.). Deportation of rejected asylum seekers is even lower than last year and will probably be just around 20 000 for the entire (!) year, while 100 000-200 000 new “refugees” will have arrived until the end of 2017. Family reunification for people accepted as refugees is set to escalate after the election, with various media reports citing numbers of at least 300 000. The Christian Democrats show no sign of doing anything about this, and the left-wing parties are enthusiastic about it.

    Regarding Austria: The conservatives’ success is, if I understand correctly, mostly due to the young foreign minister Sebastian Kurz who has been talking very tough about the migration issue, even advocating for closing down the Mediterranean route and a stop to bringing migrants to Italy. Remains to be seen if he’s serious or if it’s just fake because of pressure by the FPÖ.

  13. Isn’t it ironic that the best tier is Harvard B.A., whereas Grad school is only the third tier? How does Harvard relate to intelligence?

  14. I don’t fear walking the streets at night, even though my neighborhood is one of the more prole ones.

    Even though.

    Even though!

    Downright hurtful.

  15. Hector_St_Clare says

    “Merkel has already pretty much made it clear that she intends to continue just as before and spouts bizarre phrases no thinking person can take seriously (her idea for a solution to the migration crisis is to remove Fluchtursachen – reasons for people becoming refugees…as if it were a realistic project that Germany or Europe could fix the problems of Africa, the Near East, Afghanistan etc.). ”

    She’s not wrong about this: the only long term solution is indeed to stem problems like Africa’s population growth, crop failures, lack of economic development etc. at their source. This both true as a matter of morality and a matter of recognizing reality. I don’t think Merkel has either the interest, energy or political will to follow through on addressing “Fluchtursachen” though, to start with it would take a truly massive investment on Germany’s part in foreign aid. And in the short term it would be good to couple foreign aid with tougher laws about immigration, or at least with a more realistic accounting with costs and benefits of mass migration.

  16. Hector_St_Clare says

    I’m guessing that reason #4 is much, much, much more important than reason #3. I know some very smart Jewish guys (all either Sephardic or Russian, so make of that what you will) who are not shy about voicing politically incorrect thoughts about HBD, SJW issues, modern capitalism, Russia etc., and none of them is getting published any time soon.

  17. German_reader says

    No, she’s totally wrong imo; of course there’s much to be said for development aid, helping poorer countries cope with the challenges produced by climate change etc., and I’m all for that; but the reality is imo that unless “fortress Europe” becomes a reality and mass migration is stopped, European nations (at least in Western Europe) won’t survive in any meaningful way. And to be quite brutally honest, there are some issues I don’t feel the slightest responsibility for as a German. It’s not our fault if the benighted inhabitants of Syria or Afghanistan are unable to settle their differences in other ways than endless orgies of violence. If they’re looking for somewhere nicer to live, they can go to Saudi-Arabia or some other Muslim paradise.

  18. Expect a huge influx of Indians coming to America. Not the smart Indians, but the 82 iq Indians.

  19. @Hector_St_Clare: Eastern Europe’s large homicide rate might be the result of a legacy of Communism. Indeed, I would wait at least another couple of decades and see if significant convergence has occurred with the West by that point in time.

    @Anatoly Karlin: Honestly, it would be interesting to see how many supporters of race-based affirmative action would still be in favor of it if Jews rather than gentile Whites (and Asians, of course) were discriminated against. Indeed, let’s see what race-based affirmative action supporters think of the university restrictions which were placed upon Jews in Tsarist Russia and Miklos Horthy’s Hungary.

    However, I am a fan of income-based affirmative action; after all, rich children probably have better study tools at their disposal than poorer children have (for instance, better tutors).

    @German_reader: I agree about the Fortress Europe part. After all, there are only so many refugees that Europe can accept before it begins to weaken and crumble.

    Also, Europe should adopt a cognitively elitist immigration policy and only (with perhaps rare exceptions–such as gay refugees from homophobic countries) allow people in if their IQ is 100 or above. Since there are hundreds of millions–if not more–of people with an IQ above 100 outside of Europe (I’m especially looking at you, East Asia), this should provide a long-lasting flow of high quality immigrants to Europe.

  20. Dan Hayes says

    Mr XYZ:

    Be careful what you ask for, i.e. IQs above 100. These relatively intelligent people might prove to be the vanguard of societal interlopers.

    In America relatively low IQ people to a great extent do not (with the exception of blacks) prove to be societal interrupters.

  21. @Dan Hayes: If 100+ IQ immigrants are social interlopers, wouldn’t we have already seen this by now?

  22. I tend to agree that in general the willingness to write what elites want to be read is the primary determinant of a successful career in published political commentary. That’s demonstrated especially clearly by the way publicly supporting stupidity such as the invasion of Iraq or the attack on Libya never seems to have any deleterious effect on the careers of supposed specialists in foreign and military affairs.

    But personal connections are generally admitted, I think, as being necessary in most cases to get started and to get ahead in such a field. After all, there’s no shortage of willing court intellectuals.

    4, I think, is the prerequisite for a successful career in all but the most exceptional cases, and gives protection against suffering career-wise from foolishness such as the aforementioned, but can’t explain why one elite mouthpiece succeeds ahead of all the others. Some combination of 2 and 3 probably explains careers such as those of Mensch and Ioffe better. I’ve seen no evidence that 1 has anything to do with it in either case, but then again I haven’t looked all that closely either.

    I left out, of course, the sex-related advantages – first the time-honoured one of exploiting female attractiveness and second the one created by feminists of positive discrimination, which no successful woman (or minority) can ever really escape the suspicion of having benefitted from nowadays.

  23. Btw, it seems that Russia’s GDP growth in Q2 was 2.7% and industrial production was probably up by over 4%. Beating all expectations, which shouldn’t be all that surpising to be honest, but still, it’s good news. So the “Muh 1% growth per year for all eternity. Muh oil dependency, muh no reforms, muh aging…” was already proven to be false (shocking!).

    Also, have you read Hellevig’s recent reports on the Russian economy, Anatoly? The part 2 was published a week or two ago. Any comments? He’s certainly an optimist, but he also backs up his views with actual statistics.

  24. ussr andy says

    He is a nutcase who is far better known in the West than he is in Russia.

    that’s what being eminence grise entails, duh! /s

  25. homicide data (which as Ron Unz notes, are the one crime that can’t be doctored), generally indicate that eastern Europe as a whole, including Russia and Belarus, are indeed more murderous places than the United States and much more so than western Europe

    In Moscow, the crime is much lower than the average for Russia

  26. Yes, I have, I was actually in communication with him about the demographics parts.

  27. Hector_St_Clare says

    Regarding Fortress Europe, I disagree only because I don’t see Europe as an entity, I see it as a bunch of countries which all need to make their own choices. Fortress Germany to some degree is necessary, if Germans wish to preserve their ethnic identity (maybe they don’t). It’s certainly not sufficient though. I think Merkel (or as I sarcastically call her Angela Miracle) is right about the need to address root causes of migration, just as I think locking people up is a necessary but insufficient approach to crime, one has to be tough both on crime and the causes of crime.

    In the last analysis without population control and without economic development, there is no long term solution to the problem of mass migration.

  28. Hector_St_Clare says

    No, I’m strongly against the cognitive elitist part. Mass migration of cognitive elites would share the problems that concern me about mass Syrian, Somali and Pakistani immigration (well not to the same degree, since Chinese have fewer children than Somalis, Syrians etc.) and would additionally aggravate the brain drain in those countries, making their prospects for economic development in future even worse.

    European countries need to bite the bullet here and say, heavily restricted immigration means heavily restricted immigration, at least of people who don’t share a common or related ethnicity with the host country. Importing two million Chinese people would have as much of a short term impact on the ethnic and demographic makeup of Poland or Denmark as importing two million Somalians.

    I do think your idea of welcoming in gay refugees from homophobic countries is an interesting one, and I’d like it if the US adopted a policy like that. I’d also be in favour of the US granting refugee visas to the Roma in Europe, I think relocating Roma to the US would be a win-win situation. It would help out the Roma and also defuse ethnic conflict and ethnic anxiety within eastern Europe.

  29. In what proportions does the reader think Ms Ioffe’s successful career is owed to:

    I think the sequence is

    4) willingness to write what the media’s owners want written even if it’s a pack of lies

    however if what the owners want is detrimental to the public good then the owners need to know the journalists are going to be reliable long term and the best way to do that is hire journalists from out-groups to the majority – so ethnic or other minorities (hence the disproportionate number of homosexuals in the media and politics) so

    3) ethnicity

    members of that subset – members of out groups with no scruples – then have to be noticed so they are further filtered by personal connections or lack thereof so

    2) personal connections

    and finally they need to meet a minimum literary standard to be effective as propaganda – any ability above that is simply a bonus – so lastly

    1) talent

  30. homicide rate in Russia

    outside the big cities – where ethnicity may be masked – does the homicide rate correlate with regions / ethnic groups that were most recently hunter-gatherers?

    (as i think “killer” genes are likely to have a higher frequency among HGs and be selected out over time by farming)

  31. on reflection i guess the general case is it depends on what the particular owners of media want at any particular time

    some possibilities

    1) owner wants to create a prestigious media org for the sake of prestige and therefore stress talent above the rest – even if the talent’s scruples lead them to promote views the owners don’t agree with

    2) owner wants a propaganda rag and therefore needs corrupt journos who’ll write what they’re paid to write even if it is clearly wrong and/or harmful – talent is secondary but welcome

    3) owner primarily wants to make money so maybe wants an equal combination of talent and lack of scruples so the journos will bend with the market

    4) owner thinks the truth leads to optimal policy so wants scruples first followed by talent

    i’d say the current western media is mostly (2) hence most journos are morally corrupt individuals from various out-groups

  32. Anonymous says

    Nassim Taleb: “Psychology is bullshit.”

  33. German_reader says

    I think Dan Hayes, is alluding to the danger of importing a potentially hostile overclass, separated from the mass of the native population by ethnicity, religion or other factors. Such a danger certainly exists (though much more so in the US and Anglosphere nations like Australia with its Asian immigrants…in Europe we mostly get low-quality immigrants who present other problems).

  34. German_reader says

    In the last analysis without population control and without economic development, there is no long term solution to the problem of mass migration.

    That’s true, and I’m certainly in favour of assistance to countries in Africa and other trouble spots; obviously action against climate change is also necessary. However, I don’t think one should have any illusions: Even successful economic development in Africa would actually at first probably increase the migration pressure on Europe since many more Africans would have the means to attempt migrating to Europe (paying the people smugglers isn’t cheap after all). Unless European countries defend their borders and end their absurd non-enforcement of immigration laws (if you make it to Germany as an illegal migrant, you have a high chance of permanently staying, and eventually you’ll get the very same welfare benefits as citizens and legal immigrants), the flow will continue.
    And to some extent I do regard Europe as an entity; in any case immigration within Europe doesn’t cause that many problems and tensions. Ultimately the problem is civilizational (in regards to Islam), and to some extent also racial.

  35. German_reader says

    Importing two million Chinese people would have as much of a short term impact on the ethnic and demographic makeup of Poland or Denmark as importing two million Somalians.

    Obviously I’m not in favour of Chinese mass immigration to Europe (which would be pretty unlikely anyway however given China’s coming demographic problems), but I actually do think not all immigration is harmful to the same extent. There are other factors besides preserving national identity, societal cohesion etc. To put it bluntly: Not all groups are the same. E.g. there are about 100 000 Vietnamese in Germany who came during the 1970s and 1980s. Some of them have been involved in certain types of crime like cigarette smuggling, and some have adopted dubious US-style identity politics. But I have never, not even a single time, read a news story about Vietnamese men randomly assaulting and raping women in public places. By contrast I would have absolutely no problem finding such stories about Afghans, Somalis or other problematic groups who have arrived in recent years.
    If there has to be immigration at all, it should be at least from groups unlikely to cause excessive problems by crime, welfare dependency and religious extremism. Importing low-IQ, unskilled people, with a religious background that has traditionally been hostile to European civilization, and misogynistic and other backwards views is simply idiotic.

  36. The highest murder rates are amongst the Tuvans, Buryats, and other traditional Asiatic nomadic peoples.

    This is almost entirely due to their problems with alcohol (same story in Canada).

    Homicide rates and alcoholization (the two are strongly correlated) also tend to be higher amongst the Slavic Russian regions with higher Finno-Ugric admixture.

  37. Hector_St_Clare says

    I was going to inquire why the murder rate was so high in Tuva and Buryatia, but I guess Anatoly answered it.

  38. Hector St. Clare
    Roma are curse on any land.
    Ask Hungarian or Romanian.
    Lock your doors.

  39. Roma are curse on any land.

    That was the point of his recommendation.

  40. [W]estern society is approaching that point beyond which the system becomes metastable and must fall as Alexandr Solzhenitsy said. Lubin talks a lot of sense. Well within a generation there is every reason to expect half the workforce (the half that is a majority of US gun owners) to be made redundant. And in a few decades that character is the one going to be getting a visit– in his building, by a social justice home delivery service who will mail him back to Jesus. Killer apps vs killer apes. But that will just be the prelude because true AI is going to arrive at warp speed via interrossiters, sorry, memristors and spike time dependent plasticity. Which does not sound like rockin good news unless the Alien siesta theory is correct:-

    Modern human level intelligence is the real Singularity, and it has already happened.

  41. Julia Ioffe also mentions repeatedly that she was a refugee from the Soviet Union. I believe she tweeted once that her mother told her they fled the pogroms that they feared would accompany the 1,00th anniversary of St. Vladimir’s conversion of Kievan Rus. Hey, whatever gets you on a plane, I guess.

  42. : 100+ IQ immigrants–even from the Third World–would be less likely to be hostile to Western values and whatnot, though.

    Also, in regards to the brain drain part, Yes, that is certainly a concern. However, for an 85 IQ country with a large population, it will take a while for the damage to be felt due to the fact that 16% of its population has an IQ above 100. For a country like Pakistan, that’s about 35 million people! Plus, this is not to mention the very real possibility that if countries such as Germany and the U.S. won’t accept these immigrants, they and their descendants will simply move to other Western countries such as Canada and Australia (which have cognitive elitist immigration policies and no interest in abandoning these policies).

    In addition to this, the risk of a brain drain isn’t an issue for East Asia since half or more of their population has an IQ of 100 or more. In terms of total numbers, this means something like 800 million 100+ IQ people for China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam.

    As for the Roma, just how bad is their situation in Eastern Europe right now?
    In regards to the creation of a potentially hostile overclass, I see no evidence that such an overclass has developed among either U.S. Jews or U.S. Asians. If anything, Asian Americans appear to be underrepresented in leadership positions and whatnot:

    “It is true that although Asian-Americans do remarkably well at school and university, and have high average incomes, in the workplace they are under-represented in top jobs. A “bamboo ceiling” seems to apply. Asians do well in the lower and middle levels of companies and professions, but are less visible in the upper echelons. Buck Gee, Janet Wong and Denise Peck, Asian-American executives who put together data from Google, Intel, Hewlett Packard, LinkedIn and Yahoo for a report published by Ascend, an Asian-American organisation, found that 27% of professionals, 19% of managers and 14% of executives were Asian-American (see chart).

    A similar effect is visible in the law. In 2014, whereas 11% of law-firm associates were Asian, 3% of partners were. Recruiters at the top firms typically throw out applications from all but the top universities and scan the remainder for their extracurriculars, says Lauren Rivera of Northwestern University. “They’re particularly interested in sports, such as lacrosse, squash and [rowing] crew. When you look at the demographic base of these sports, Asian-Americans are not heavily represented.”

    At the very top of the tree, Asian-Americans are nigh-invisible. According to a study of Fortune 500 CEOs by Richard Zweigenhaft of Guilford College, in 2000 eight were Asian-American, and in 2014 ten were, whereas the women’s tally in the same period rose from four to 24. Academia, similarly, is stuffed with Asian-American professors, but among America’s 3,000 colleges there are fewer than ten Asian-American presidents, says Mr Gee.

    High-flying Asian-Americans, like the three authors of the Ascend report, suggest that cultural patterns may contribute to the group’s under-representation at the top. “There’s something in the upbringing that makes Asians shy,” says Mr Gee. “Engineers are nerds, but within that self-selected group of nerds, Asians are even more nerdy.” “We’re brought up to be humble,” says Ms Wong. “My parents didn’t want to rock the boat. It’s about being quiet, not making waves, being part of the team. In corporate life, you have to learn to toot your horn.” “There’s a natural order of human relationships in Confucianism,” says Ms Peck. “You don’t argue, you don’t contradict authority.” Asian-Americans are a large, diverse group exposed to a range of influences, but those who do reflect such patterns may be less likely to bid for leadership, even if they are highly qualified. The comparative prominence of South Asians, who are less likely to be told not to “rock the boat”—for instance, Indra Nooyi at PepsiCo and Ajay Banga at MasterCard—is cited as anecdotal evidence.

    Mr Gee, Ms Wong and Ms Peck, who run training courses to help Asians get promoted, recommend that they should network harder. But another study suggests that Asians may find getting mentors particularly tough. Researchers at Wharton Business School, Columbia University and New York University wrote an identical e-mail to 6,500 professors, ostensibly from students wanting to meet the academic. White men got notably more responses than other groups; Asian-Americans of both sexes got fewer. Since the Ivies produce a disproportionate number of CEOs, Congressmen and judges, the apparent bias against Asian-Americans at leading universities may also keep Asians out of leadership spots. “The ladder is being pulled away from our feet,” says Tricia Liu. “If we can’t go to the Ivy League universities, how can we get the positions in Wall Street, or Congress, or the Supreme Court?”

    As Jerome Karabel’s study of Jews and the Ivy League (“The Chosen: The Hidden History of Admission and Exclusion at Harvard, Yale and Princeton”) shows, it was only when Jews had gained political power that the Ivies stopped discriminating against them. And Asian-Americans are under-represented in politics as well as in business. Only 2.4% of the 113th Congress were Asian-Americans; by one count, fewer than 2% of state legislators are.”

  43. @German_reader: Yeah, not all immigrants are equal. Indeed, my city (Irvine, in southern California) if full of immigrants and diversity and yet is extremely safe and very wealthy. In contrast, the banlieues of Paris are full of immigrants and diversity and are crime-ridden hellholes!

  44. Hector_St_Clare says

    Re: Roma in Eastern Europe

    My statistician friend claims college graduation rates for the Roma in Hungary are lower than for African Americans during the Jim Crow era.

    Whether you think the problem is due to genetics, Roma culture or discrimination from the broader society, their situation is very bad and it could only get better if they were allowed to emigrate en masse to America.

  45. German_reader says

    But what exactly should they do in America? The US doesn’t have generous welfare benefits even compared to Eastern Europe, and part of its solution for its traditional race problem is locking up black men in very high numbers and under rather harsh conditions…I doubt US prisons compare favorably to Eastern Europe. Social mobility in general is also quite poor in the US today. The Roma would just continue to be what they are to a large extent now, a parasitic underclass, only under conditions (more general violence, harsher justice system) less favorable to them.

  46. @Hector_St_Clare: If the problem is due to their genetics, though, then immigrating to the U.S. won’t change that.

    Frankly, this would be similar to saying that Black people in the U.S. would perform better on academic tests and whatnot if they immigrated en masse to Europe. Indeed, does Europe want to see if this will be true?

  47. @German_reader: Bingo; indeed, I fail to see how immigrating to the U.S. en masse would help Roma any more than immigrating to Europe en masse would help U.S. Blacks.

    Also, off-topic, but in regards to Eastern Europe, it’s a shame that they lost their cognitive elite as a result of the Holocaust. Indeed, Eastern European countries would almost certainly be better off right now had they retained their Jewish smart fraction.

  48. Peripatetic commenter says

    Is it really unusual that the Kievan Rus converted to Christianity given the Christianization of Scandinavian countries?

  49. Peripatetic commenter says

    However, there is another problem as well, and that is the problem of resistance to assimilating and inbreeding.

    You see, a Chinese person’s best chance of finding a compatible mate who they will successfully be able to breed with is another Chinese person. Those genes have been shuffling around with each other for a long time and have largely eliminated any issues of genetic incompatibility and have boiled off genes that produce culturally incompatible individuals.

    Similarly for black people, Indian people and so forth.

    So, simply importing lots of them can create the problem of enclaves and ghettos of people who think and behave differently and who may decide to take strong (military) action to ensure they can decide their own fates and not be controlled by others.

  50. Didn’t the Latvians and/or Estonians remain pagan until the 1970s or so? I kid but I think it was as late as the 13th century? As for the Scandinavians, they seem to have taken to Christianity only half-heartedly. They hugely enjoyed the 30 Years’ War but have very few towns named for saints, when compared to most other parts of Europe. The Germanics generally seem to have taken to Christianity less than the Celts, Latins or Slavs. Alt-Righters would consider that a mark in their favour but I don’t think so.

    As to your question, why wouldn’t the Russians. Ukrainians and Belorussians celebrate the conversion of their own people just because the Scandos did too? If anything, Julia Ioffe’s family should have staid put and celebrated the 1,000th anniversary of her Khazar ancestors first act of standoffishness.

  51. LondonBob says

    Yes Kevin MacDonald covered the issues with a hostile overclass, although the bigger threat remains a very low IQ underclass.

  52. Yes Kevin MacDonald covered the issues with a hostile overclass, although the bigger threat remains a very low IQ underclass.

    That actually makes sense to you? You would rather be a slave of a hostile, “cognitively superior” overclass than deal with the nuisance of a “dumber” underclass?

    By the way it’s worth noting here that most if not all of you megalomaniacal HBDers are descendants of the European underclass. One would think that the descendants of slaves, serfs, outcastes and other dregs of the Old World who immigrated to the Americas, would embrace the Enlightenment principle of egalitarianism which is a founding principle of the American and French Republics.

  53. Most people would, I imagine, rather not deal with either, but has it occurred to you that “bigger threat” may very well refer to considerably greater likelihood in the present situation?

  54. The dumbest redneck would be the one who thinks the US and Russia have no serious conflicts of interest, banjo boy.

  55. I’d also be in favour of the US granting refugee visas to the Roma in Europe

    Why would you wish it on America?

  56. You would rather be a slave of a hostile, “cognitively superior” overclass than deal with the nuisance of a “dumber” underclass?

    He already is so he would not know the difference.

  57. TheJester says

    Violence bounded within specific venues and neighborhoods has long been part of the American experience. As long as the Blacks kept their violence south of 5th street (so to speak), no one cared what they did to each other. This has been a feature of American life since the post-Civil War period when Blacks became free to rediscover their African heritage.

    Well, under the guise of camouflaging ethnic peculiarities in the name of social equality and globalism, the MSM has now started reporting the violence as “people” behaving badly. Is anyone upset? No, there are enough clues to know where and by whom … so, if 16 people are shot in a nightclub, it’s just another typical Saturday night south of 5th street where alcohol and drugs flow freely.

    These shootouts capture people’s attention only through the time it takes to read the headlines. Then, back to the daily routine of life north of 5th street. A Muslim Jihadists shoots one person north of 5th street? A completely different story.

  58. This was not the case in the 1990s/early 2000s in Russia, when walking the streets past sunset wasn’t safe even in central Moscow

    Having spent a few months in Moscow as 1999 turned to 2000, I disagree. The city, at least the center, was rather safe even then. There were, I assume, a lot of contract killings and, I also assume, it was probably easy to hire someone to kill one’s business partner (or some other inconvenient person) for fairly little money, but I don’t think that random killings on the streets were very common.

  59. Killings, probably not, but drug dealing, risk of muggings/beatings at night, etc.

    This impression is based on the accounts of a couple of peolpe who live(d) within the Garden Ring in the past couple of decades. Impressions might differ, of course.

    They were consistent in asserting that Sobyanin’s gentification project vastly improved the situation.

  60. Maybe. Those were just my personal impressions. I remember at that time walking across central Moscow after 1 AM with my wife, after a Krematoriy concert at some casino, with no problems and thinking that this would have been riskier even in Chicago’s (good) north side. I don’t recall ever feeling personally at risk in Moscow. Though, I wasn’t in Lyubertsy or prole neighborhoods.

    There was some violence: I once saw some young man slamming another young’s man head into the floor right inside the entrance to Detsky Mir children’s store of all places, but it seemed like the two knew each other, it wasn’t a random assault. I also witnessed a purse snatching on Tverskaya (and felt sorry that I didn’t think fast enough trip or push the guy, who looked like a middle-aged ethnic Russian prole, as he ran past me).

    At that time we used to take gypsy cabs (we would hail random cars and random people would give us lifts for a few rubles) around the city and never felt unsafe and never had problems.

  61. Hell no – keep your own Gypsies. What makes you think anyone in America is interested in having another crime-ridden ethnic underclass?

  62. Anatoly, you should write an article about the process of depopulation of Ukraine; positive and negative consequences for both Russia and Ukraine, etc. I just found this article

    I’m sure you can make a superb analysis about those astonishing numbers.

  63. The article is interesting but fails the “lying eyes” test – Ukrainian cities certainly do not look depopulated – sidewalks are full of people, streets are full of traffic, few empty buildings, at least in urban areas. Anyone familiar with actually depopulated areas such as Detroit would note the contrast. But if you’ve never been to Ukraine, you may believe such things. There is certainly some degree of depopulation, but not something close to 50% population loss as the article claims.

    About migration – it is mostly temporary. That is, people work in Poland for a few months and then return home for a few months. The numbers of people working in Poland or elsewhere abroad are high but they don’t represent a permanent exodus in most cases. It’s not a population loss. Moreover if you include each year’s worker’s exodus you are counting the same people multiple times.

    About school enrollment – the author writes: “During the 1995/1996 school year there were 7.1 million schoolchildren in Ukraine. In the 2015/2016schoolyear it was down to 3,783,150 (official data of the Ministry of Education of Ukraine) or 47% in 20 years.”

    Well, a similar situation (though not as extreme) exists for Russia:

    Primary school children (not total as in Ukraine’s figures above) was 7.9 million in 1996, down to 5 million in 2008 or 37% lower. Was Russia hollowed out in 2008? Currently it is at 6 million, down 24% from 1996. If Ukraine is hollowed out based on school enrollment, does that make Russia half-hollowed out?

  64. I think that the analysis smells as anti-Ukrainian. But also there are too much numbers there indicating that negative trends are un-abated. The analysis should be dismissed but the statistics should not.

  65. If’ I’m not mistaken, the homicide rate in Russia has dropped from 20 per 100,000 (a Latin American rate) to 9 per 100,000 (an American rate ca. 1980) in the last 20 years. However, it’s still about twice the American rate today.

    It’s more concentrated in the U.S. than in (say) the British isles. Where I grew up, about 2/3 of the homicides occur in an cluster of urban neighborhoods where live about 10% of the population of the whole metropolitan region. You see those sort of metrics in other cities – Chicago and Detroit to name two. In Ireland, by contrast, urban homicide rates might be 4x small town and rural rates. I think the distinction in England is less intense than that.

  66. That’s an intriguing map. It suggests the homicide rate is correlated with extreme low density. The only parts of North America which have settlement densities like those regions of Russia are northern Canada (where lives about 4% Canada’s population), Alaska, Nevada, Eastern Oregon, and fragments of Montana and Texas. I know alcohol is a terrible problem among Siberian aboriginials, but if I’m not mistaken, Russians are pretty much the majority everywhere in Siberia bar Yakutia and Tuva.

  67. Eastern Europe’s large homicide rate might be the result of a legacy of Communism.

    Russia has an elevated homicide rate (and if you look at the man’s map, you’ll see that’s driven by the Asiatic provinces). The Baltic States, White Russia, the Ukraine, and Moldova have somewhat elevated homicide rates (3-5 per 100,000). The other EE countries are European normal (< 2 per 100,000) re their homicide rates.

  68. Daniel Chieh says

    Misery loves company.

  69. O.T.: Any opinion on the president’s warmongering against North Korea? I have never bought the idea that any section of the U.S. ruling class wants a war with Russia. Much of the apparent mass anti-Russian sentiment is just the Democrats pandering to Republicans as they imagine them.

    North Korea may be different. Some may really want war to stop N Korea’s nuclearization. For those who voted for Trump because they perceived an alternative to Hilary’s imperialism, isn’t it deeply disconcerting that Trump tried to draw a red line over threats ?

  70. You seem to be going out of your way to make the Trump team seem astute. The fact that a veto of the sanctions would risk impeachment was obvious to everyone. Putting that in the signing statement (rather than leaving it unsaid) was idiotic.

  71. the low IQ underclass was deliberately created by the hostile overclass

  72. Jews are primarily responsible for opening the Wests’ borders – so obviously not

  73. For those who voted for Trump because they perceived an alternative to Hilary’s imperialism, isn’t it deeply disconcerting that Trump tried to draw a red line over threats ?

    North Korea has been a crisis waiting to happen ever since they started their weapons program and deciding whether or not to do anything about it has been a can kicked down the road for 20 years by everyone concerned.

    The crisis point was always going to come when they had (or were close enough to) a viable weapon so I think even the most isolationist pro Trump person would probably see NK as a special case.

    Hopefully, after a bit of mutually assured rhetoric it will blow over.

  74. Daniel Chieh says

    I don’t see North Korea initiating a war on South Korea by herself, so this is all pretty much a problem of the world’s making because they can’t leave a tinpot dictator alone, imo.

  75. It’s not a serious article.

    The bread consumption figures are the most interesting ones (in support for the Ukrstat hiding depopulation conspiracy theory), but you can’t make conclusions from just one staple. Maybe Ukrainians were substituting for potatoes.

    The electricity argument is a joke. Ukraine was in a depression from 2014-2016.

    Number of schoolchildren is a ridiculous metric. It is as if the author is unaware of the fertility collapse in the 1990s, which affected the entirety of the Slavic ex-USSR.

    Evidence against Ukraine population collapse – if that were really the case, its fertility rate now would not be 1.47, but around 1.8 or even 2.0 – considerably higher than in Russia itself, despite it being far more economically depressed. Unless Ukrstat was systemically cooking the books on numbers of births too (which is improbable in the extreme).

    Not many jobs? Nothing surprising there either, Ukraine has a large shadow economy.

  76. How likely is it that the AfD is being subverted by Germany’s Deep State?

    Some of the news items generated by AfD politicians – particularly bizarrely far-right positions – seem rather too delicious from the point of view of MSM propaganda.

  77. I’ve read that a large number, perhaps half a million, Syrian refugees have returned to Syria as the violence winds down. Perhaps Putin’s intervention is doing more to solve the West’s refugee crises than all the politicians of the West put together?

  78. Hector_St_Clare says

    I’m American, as you ought to know.

  79. Hector_St_Clare says

    Because America is much richer than Eastern European countries and somewhat richer than Western Europe. Also because America is already much more multiethnic and multicultural than anywhere in Europe (and will remain so into the foreseeable future, with the possible exception of the UK), because US public opinion is more pro-migration than anywhere in Europe, because we don’t have such a history of ethnic conflict with Roma, and because Roma can be integrated into our national myth much more than they can into the Polish or Czech national identies.

  80. If you will throw in a few thousand Andamanese, you’ve got a deal.

  81. How likely is it that the AfD is being subverted by Germany’s Deep State?

    100% certain – although sometimes they help by accident

  82. stealth biological warfare

  83. the Syrian thing was always an excuse to open the EU’s borders – the avalanche has been unleashed and untold millions from SSA and MENA are already on the move.

    hopefully the people responsible will pay for it one day soon.

  84. German_reader says

    How likely is it that the AfD is being subverted by Germany’s Deep State?

    It’s certainly possible, the security services seem to have done something like this to an earlier right-wing party (Republikaner) in the early 1990s when they got too threatening to the establishment. But there’s no evidence for that so far in the AfD…any new party will attract plenty of nutcases, and it’s not always easy to tell where the line should be drawn. And given the climate of intimidation and violence against the AfD (which is not just ignored by the establishment, but in the case at least of the establishment left actually incited and supported) it’s no wonder if people with unusual character profiles are overrepresented in the party…more “normal” people just can’t tolerate the pressure.

  85. hopefully the people responsible [for inviting the male refugee deluge] will pay for it one day soon.

    In the meantime, they are certainly PAID very well through back-handers and sinecures.

  86. Hector_St_Clare says

    Do you have any links to stories about Antifa violence against AFD supporters? I can’t read German although I suppose I could use google translate.

  87. German_reader says

    That’s just a selection, ranges from vandalism over torching cars up to direct physical assaults on AfD politicians. Hotels and inns hosting AfD meetings also get regularly threatened by Antifa activists.
    The mainstream left is deeply complicit in this imo and make common cause with violent leftie extremists…e.g. there’s now a large alliance of many groups (trade unions, church groups etc.) Aufstehen gegen Rassismus (Stand up against racism) which calls the AfD a “Nazi party”, wants to prevent it from entering the Bundestag and calls for disruption of AfD campaign events before the elections (supposedly only with “non-violent” means like extreme noise). It’s supported by leading politicians from the Greens and Social Democrats. Also part of that alliance: the far left Interventionistische Linke, which was involved in the riots in Hamburg a few weeks ago.
    You’ve also got politicians like Ralf Stegner from the Social Democrats who calls for “attacking” right-wing populists. He leaves it vague what exactly that’s supposed to mean, but given the reality of violent assaults by Antifa activists it’s at the very least totally irresponsible behaviour.
    Political culture in Germany is totally rotten…the last few years have demonstrated beyond doubt that the Christian Democrats care only about staying in power, and that the left-wing parties’ understanding of democracy is limited to a perpetual, increasingly hysteric fight against anything they consider right-wing. There is absolutely no concept anymore of liberties that have value in themselves (free speech only turns up in connection with phrases like “limits of”, “abuse of”), nor that different values and political views might be legitimate…just a suffocating pseudo-consensus.

  88. AfD’s electoral base appears to be 3-5x that of die Republikaner. The latter was also tainted as it was led by a man who had been in the Waffen-SS (though I don’t think anyone dug up any evidence of personal actions which constituted war crimes – IIRC, he was an aviator). The actuarial tables have cleaned out people who had those kind of embarrassments in their past.

  89. German_reader says

    “though I don’t think anyone dug up any evidence of personal actions which constituted war crimes – IIRC, he was an aviator”

    The Waffen-SS didn’t have an air wing, but you’re indeed correct that the leader of the Republikaner Schönhuber was in the Waffen-SS as a young man:

    And yes, the situation in the 1980s and 1990s was different from today because the Nazi era was still “contemporary” history in a way it isn’t today. However, German society has become much more “progressive” since then; something like the insane policies of the past few years wouldn’t have been possible back then. A lot of what the AfD stands for today isn’t much different from the positions of the conservative wing of the Christian Democrats (pretty much non-existent now) until the 1990s or even the early 2000s.

  90. i think close cousin marriage over many generations leads to people having very low empathy to outsiders

    hence gypsies keeping retards as slaves, for example

    (nb the strong family resemblance)

    people from groups like this aren’t victims (except of their own history/culture) – they’re predators

  91. Hector_St_Clare says

    I don’t mean to sound flippant, but perhaps you should consider moving to a different country.

    Everywhere in Europe has issues with immigration, political correctness etc. at the moment, but these issues seem to be quantitatively much worse in Germany than anywhere else. (Probably as a reaction against the cultural memory of the Nazis).

    Whatever your opinion of the AfD (and I’m not really very favourable to them), their projected performance this year is going to be pitiful. When an anti-immigration party can only garner 8% of the vote, in what was supposed to be a wave year for ethnic identity politics, the situation for people with your views seems to be hopeless and you should cut your losses and move.

  92. German_reader says

    I don’t mean to sound flippant, but perhaps you should consider moving to a different country.

    I can’t, I have numerous personal issues (some health-related) and don’t have any economically valuable skills like programming, so no country will receive me with open arms. But if I had a good alternative, I’d certainly leave and never set foot in Germany again.