New Year: 2018 Prediction Calibration Results

My predictions for 2018. As usual, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right at each probability level versus their probability (e.g., for predictions at the 70% confidence level, perfect calibration would represent getting 7/10 of them correct). Predictions with a probability rating of less than 50% are converted […]

The Absolute State of “Russia Studies” in America

As I have pointed out, the jokers who dominate today’s “Russia debate” such as Molly McKew have much less Russia expertise even than La Russophobe, the old bete noire of the Russia bloggers. Suffice to say that her entire shtick consists of inventing ever more and more deranged Russiagate conspiracy theories is something that even Masha […]

Что общего между Талебом и Аленой Поповой?


Technomedievalism 2

In recent days, Russia has arrested the American spy Paul Whelan. This is widely viewed as retribution for the prosecution of Maria Butina. Perhaps the kremlins were finally cajoled into action by China’s example. (Main theory making the rounds in Russiagate circles is that it is a ploy to arrange an exchange with Butina back before […]

Open Thread 65: Happy New Year!

Apologies for the lack of new posts (or really even checking the comments) in recent weeks. Temporary and unexpected confluence of various events. An understandably slow December regardless, this year has been record breaking – almost twice as much traffic as in 2017 – and I expect acceleration to resume, now that I am fully […]

Синореализм 101

Wei Gensheng: Шанхай, Китай. У меня появилась в среде русских националистов некая репутация “синофила”. На самом деле, мне как-то безразлично, считаете ли вы, что китайцы – наследники древней, пятитысячелетний культуры, чья страна заслуживает снова стать “Среднем Королевством” всего мира, либо что они – аутистичные, богоборствующие роботы, которые убивают своих девочек в матке и едят собак. Но если меня […]

Bershidsky’s Vision

Here is how emigre journalist Bershidsky (who likes mass immigration to Europe but not to Saudi Arabia) sees the end of history (Russia edition): Whenever and however Putin may leave, any successor will need to revise Russia’s geopolitical choice. Putin has taken two decades to show that he doesn’t have a reverse gear. A new […]

Open Thread 64

I will admit that due to personal and work related reasons I got much less done this month than I hoped to. However, on the plus side, I have pretty much finished with furnishing my new apartment, and have largely ditched one commitment that was generally more trouble than it was worth. Along with an […]

Claas Relotius

It just strikes me that fiction writer extraordinary could have kept his profitable gig – and I mean profitable in the direct sense of the word, what with news now coming out he pocketed donations made out to Syrian orphans of his own invention – if he’d stuck to a few simple rules: First, he should have worked […]

Стратегические Партнеры

Ответ к дискуссии о “стратегических партнеров РНГ на Западе” на Никто. Всем на Западе, без исключения, наплевать на русских националистов. Кому они там вообще нужны?! Кого (кроме самих русских) должны волновать русские интересы? Вот даже у какого-нибудь шизика Дугина есть поклонники – его Четвертая Теория может быть и бредовая, но все таки в какой то […]

Egor Kholmogorov: Simple Truths

There are often questions in the comments about Egor Kholmogorov’s stance on various things, e.g. about how he reconciles his Orthodox beliefs with Russian ethnonationalism. So I prepared something different from our usual fare of serious longreads – a series of translations of his social media posts, where he briefly but succinctly addresses some of the most common […]

Fake and Gay Countries

How can you identify a cargo cult culture? (Or, as Thorfinnsson elegantly calls them, “fake and gay countries”?). Well, here’s one thing I notice about many of them. They’re obsessed – obsessed! – over naming conventions for their countries and cities in foreign languages. For instance, precisely nobody in The Netherlands – to the best […]