Inspired by Kireev’s similar posts in Russian, I’m asking S/O readers to predict (1) The official results of the elections, and (2) The actual, i.e. non-falsified, results. Please give them to one decimal point, and include all the five candidates as well as the share of invalid votes. They will be displayed in the table below.
The winner will be the one, the sum of whose predicted results differ least from the official results. In the (very unlikely) case that there emerge two winners, i.e. they were wrong by the same amount, the one who responded earlier will be considered the winner. The reward will be ample praise on this blog and a free S/O T-Shirt. (Which reminds me, I still owe one to Alex Mercouris. Will get to work on that…)
Separately, feel free to also predict the real, i.e. non-falsified, results, or the scale of falsifications you expect in these elections. I expect 2%-3% falsifications, lower than the 5%-7% I believe happened in 2011, but not rooted out entirely.
| VVZh | GAZ | SMM | MDP | VVP | X | |
| AK | 9.5 | 17.0 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 59.0 | 1.0 |
| showdown_2012 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 63.2 | 2.0 |
| Mark Sleboda | 9.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 62.0 | 1.0 |
| Alex Sidorenko | 7.0 | 26.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 49.0 | 2.0 |
| Alex Latsa | 11.8 | 15.5 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 54.5 | 3.0 |
| Juha Savolainen | 8.5 | 16.0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 60.0 | 1.5 |
| PK | 7.9 | 15.7 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 60.1 | 1.5 |
| Moscow Exile | 6.4 | 16.7 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 61.3 | 3.0 |
| Gladstone | 12.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 61.0 | 2.0 |
| Hunter | 10.4 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 64.6 | 1.4 |
| Andor | 11.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 57.0 | 4.0 |
| Mark Chapman | 9.7 | 19.2 | 2.3 | 8.3 | 58.8 | 1.7 |
| Andy Young | 9.0 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 58.0 | 2.0 |
| Carl | 13.0 | 22.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 56.0 | 1.0 |
| donyess | 9.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 66.0 | 1.0 |
| Tony | 9.4 | 19.2 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 58.2 | 1.8 |
| NinaIvanovna | 7.5 | 15.0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 58.0 | 3.1 |
| Ernst Krenkel | 10.0 | 21.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 53.0 | 2.0 |
| Alex Mercouris | 10.9 | 16.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 56.4 | 1.0 |
| FyRuPolitics | 9.8 | 20.0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 57.6 | 1.9 |
| SH | 11.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 58.0 | 1.6 |
| Timothy Post | 9.0 | 18.0 | 4.0 | 20.0 | 48.0 | 1.0 |
| aap | 4.5 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 70.1 | 1.9 |
| RESULTS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions will be accepted until evening March 3, Moscow time. And now they are closed, thanks to the 23 people who participated!!
As soon as we get the official results, I will compile a list of our competitors by the accuracy of their predictions.
Three additional notes.
(1) Free T-Shirt offer only applies if at least 10 people participate.
(2) If I get no figure for invalid ballots, I will assume it to be 1.0% and adjust the rest down proportionally. I will add a .0 to any figure given without a decimal point.
(3) In the (very unlikely) case that there emerge two winners, i.e. they were wrong by the same amount, the one who responded earlier will be considered the winner.
Putin 62.0%, Zhirinovksi 9.0%, Mironov 6.0%. Prokhorov 7.0%, Zyuganov 15.0%, Spoiled 1.0%
I don’t think there will be any significant electoral fraud on a national or systemtic level that warrants mentioning.
Although I think there is likely to be (in fact from inside info I KNOW there will be) significant and deliberate interference in the voting and vote counting process by so-called independent ‘Election Observers’ (ie partisan liberal organizations that reveive their funding from Western governments and GONGOS and that have delusions of pulling off of a ‘Color Revolution’ mob-coup after the election,. or at the very least delegitimizing and weakening Vladimir Putin) like Citizen Observer and Golos. And there will of a certainty be provocations at post-election liberast rallies to force the police to respond with arrests and/or legal force when the Westerm MSM’s cameras are watching – possibly even an attempted storming of the Federal Election Commission. There will also be further ‘Falsifications of Falsifications’ posted online and recorded by the fake ‘Election Observers’ as has already started, in the week before the election…
Zhirinovsky – 7
Zyuganov – 26
Mironov – 13
Prokhorov – 3
Putin – 49
Invalid – 2
The sum of predicted results must equal 100%.
The differences between the predicted and official result for each candidate and the invalid ballot option, summed up.
That will be zero, of course. You should sum not the differences, but their absolute values.
First, on election fraud. I think it is perfectly clear that it is in the best interests of Putin to win in a way that seems fair and just. The problem for Putin here is not his (lack of) popularity , because he has sufficient support to get just what he wants. Ironically, it is the machinery he built – the notorious Power Vertical – that will prevent Putin reaching fully his objectives. For the main objective of his local satraps is to avoid looking very unpopular, which means that they have an interest to produce a somewhat higher share of the votes for Putin than what is in Putin’s own interest, in fact. Of course, this is particularly true of the North Caucasian vote. Yet I do not believe that the difference between the all-Russian “real” election results and official results will be that great: Putin will probably receive 2,5% more votes in the official count than what were actually given.
The official results come first, the “real” results are in brackets:
Putin 60,0 (57,5)
Zyuganov 16,0 (16,5)
Zhirinovsky 8,5 (8,5)
Prokhorov 7,5 (8,0)
Mironov 6,5 (7,0)
Invalid 1,5 (2,5)
Lencyclopedie
Putin 60,1
Zyuganov 15,7
Prokhorov 8,7
Zhirinovsky 7,9
Mironov 6,1
Invalid 1,5
Still seams like Prokhorov might be heading to the third place: the freshness factor plus Zhirinovsky obtrusive style could contribute. People deciding at the last moment normally do it based mainly on emotions. Emotionally Prokhorov looks more attractive.
*seems*
Zhirinovsky – 6.4
Zyuganov – 16.7
Mironov – 8
Prokhorov – 4.6
Putin – 61.3
Invalid – 3
Putin 61
Zyuganov 15
Zhirinovsky 12
Prokhorov 7
Mironov 3
Invalid 2
Putin – 64.6%
Zyuganov – 12.6%
Zhirinovsky – 10.4%
Prokhorov – 6.5%
Mironov – 4.5%
Spoiled/Invalid ballots – 1.4%
Falsifications – 1-3%
I also expect the western press to come out implying that there should have been a second round and that Prokhorov must have had a lot of votes stolen from him (and that he may even have won!) based on a single poll by SuperJob in January which showed Putin having 26% support and Prokhorov having 21% (even though of course that poll was the odd one out and no other poll has ever shown Prokhorov getting more than 6% support and Putin having anything less than 40% support).
I’m amazed that the SuperJob poll is still up on the wikipedia page. It was fun to see the results, but the sample was absurdly biased!
Well I suppose there is no real reason to take it down, and of course when all the other polls disagree with it so greatly it only serves to show how out of whack the SuperJob poll seems to be…
By the way AK, what about Trinidad and Tobago in your Education as the Elixir of Growth III thread? It’s more like the UAE (an oilman that has diversified – into banking in T&T’s case) rather than a proper bankster nation I would think based on it’s economy.
Thanks for pointing that out, Hunter.
There’s a couple of other mistakes on that graph actually, e.g. I mislabeled Mauritius. But I’m loathe to redo it all just for that, the general point has been made.
Putin – 57%
Zyuganov – 16%
Zhrinovsky – 11 %
Mironov – 4%
Prokhorov – 8%
Invalid — 4%
Putin 58.8%/ Zyuganov 19.2%/ Zhirinovsky 9.7%/ Mironov 2.3%/ Prokhorov 8.3.0%/ Spoiled/Invalid 1.7%
I’ve been fascinated to see Putin’s support solidify throughout the campaign, and although I was predicting a few months ago that Putin would slip just below 50%, I now think he’s going to finish comfortably above it.
I also think Prokhorov is going to do quite well – better than he’s polling at the moment. Not because he genuinely has the support of 9% of all Russians, but because I think the people who will support him will be more motivated to come out the polls than those who support the other ‘also-rans’.
Putin – 58
Zyuganov – 16
Zhirinovsky – 9
Prokhorov – 9
Mironov – 6
Invalid – 2
Although Putin has genuine support, the most frustrating thing for me has been the lack of any genuinely strong and interesting opposition candidate. It’s daft for people to expect someone to come from nowhere, and Prokhorov never really stood a chance of living up to the hype.
It’ll be interesting to see if someone genuinely popular does emerge in the next few years, but I don’t see it happening until Zyuganov goes and either someone re-invigorates the Communist Party or someone else with broader appeal comes in and picks over the post-Zyuganov Communist Party’s carcass.
Or, to put it another way, Zyuganov is a big a block to contested elections in Russia as Putin is.
PS – the table is broken at the moment. It’s too wide and Putin’s name is hidden behind the sidebar. Or was that intentional…?
I think Mironov is a strong and interesting opposition candidate, from the debates, but unfortunately for me I seem to be almost alone in this impression.
In terms of future politics, the people to watch out for, IMO, are Rogozin (probably the most popular politician independently of Putin in Russia) and Oksana Dmitrieva (not because of any special charisma or characterics, but by mere fact she is in second place in Fair Russia, which as a social democratic party should have respectable prospects if the rest of Europe is anything to go by especially once the Communist electorate starts to moderate – something that is arguably happening already).
I used to think Navalny would be big, but his star appears to have peaked. He has not made the breakthrough in popular opinion that even Prokhorov modestly managed, and even that relic Yavlinsky is far more popular than him.
There have been recent rumors that the KPRF will transfer leadership over to Udaltsov whenever Zyuganov finally steps down. I want to try whatever it is those people are smoking. Most likely it will be current second Melnikov, but like Zyuganov, he does not appear to be inspirational; he won’t lift the KPRF out of its permanent c.20% support doldrums.
There is nothing to replace Zhirinovsky. His son, Lebedev, does not have his history or charisma; I would guess the LDPR will dissipate once Zhirinovsky leaves the scene. Should Rogozin resume direct politicking by that time, he may claim a substantial part of the LDPR electorate.
Thanks for pointing out the table problem. I don’t know how to solve it without changing the theme, unfortunately. Or perhaps I could use initials for the candidate names? I’ll try that.
“I’ve been fascinated to see Putin’s support solidify throughout the campaign,”
Actually I did a rough graph last night at home using the poll results available on the Russian wikipedia article for it and when one corrects for those who say they would not vote Putin’s support has been doing the exact opposite of UR’s support before the election – going up from the high 40s to the low 60s.
“I also think Prokhorov is going to do quite well – better than he’s polling at the moment. Not because he genuinely has the support of 9% of all Russians, but because I think the people who will support him will be more motivated to come out the polls than those who support the other ‘also-rans’.”
Well Prokhorov is a “fresh” face compared to the other also-rans, so that alone might inspire others to come out in support of him rather than other opposition candidates who must seem like very stale bread by now.
“Although Putin has genuine support, the most frustrating thing for me has been the lack of any genuinely strong and interesting opposition candidate. It’s daft for people to expect someone to come from nowhere, and Prokhorov never really stood a chance of living up to the hype.”
Well I think Mironov has potential. I’m not basing this off the debates like AK since I can’t watch them unless they were dubbed or subtitled, but he’s never been called crazy in the western MSM and the party he used to head has done pretty well in establishing itself as one of the mainstream parties in Russia (and thus it must have some amount of genuine popular appeal and not imaginary popularity like Yabloko and other liberast parties). From what I’ve read Mironov and Fair Russia have never approached the LDPR for a merger although they have approached the communists for a merger, so they don’t seem to have a racist/nationalistic streak. So as a left-leaning, non-communist, non-liberast, non-fascist/nationalist politician Mironov sounds fairly interesting to me and sounds like he has the potential to become a politician with broad support. I think the only thing working against him is that he is the same age as Putin (but looks a bit older with all that white hair) and so will not naturally succeed him once Putin retires from the political scene. If Mironov had been 10 years younger I would give him a good chance of becoming the next President after Putin retires from office a second time.
Putin: 56
Zyuganov: 22
Zhirinovsky: 13
Mironov: 6
Prokhorov: 2
Invalid: 1
Putin – 66
Zyuganov – 10
Prokhorov – 10
Zhirinovsky – 9
Mironov – 4
Invalid – 1
Watch the roly-poly fishwraps carry on with the war against Putin and Gazprom in support of the Yukos criminals.
OK, I’ll have a stab at this…
Putin – 58.2
Zyuganov – 19.2
Zhirinovsky – 9.4
Mironov – 5.2
Prokhorov – 6.2
Invalid – 1.8
There will be all sorts of attempts to discredit the vote but barring any obvious attempt to rig the vote (I can’t see it happening), I don’t think the anti-Putin camp will be able to pull the numbers they did in the first protest gathering
Official Results:
Putin – 58.0
Zyuganov – 15.0
Prokhorov – 8.5
Zhirinovsky – 7.5
Mironov – 7.9
Invalid – 3.1
Putin 57
Zyuganov 17
Zhirinovsky 11
Prokhorov 6
Mironov 9
Alex, could you also please give me a figure for the % of spoiled ballots? thanks. Otherwise, I’ll do what I said above, assume you mean 1%, and adjust the rest of teh figures for it.
Make it 1%.
….and adjust the figures for it.
Putin 59.0
Zyuganov 20.5
Zhirinovsky 10.0
Prokhorov 6.5
Mironov 4.5
Invalid 1.9
Anatoly did you received my email?
Putin 54,5
Ziouganov 15.5
Jirinovski 12,8
Mironov 12,2
Prokhorov 5
Invalid votes < 4%
Frauds: 2,3%
Yes, I did, but didn’t notice it. So sorry.
I will make a mental note that you were one of the first. Should it come down to a tie between you and someone else (which is very unlikely of course) I’ll be sure to check the precise time of your email and the precise time of the posting of their comment.
Putin 58.0
Zyuganov 15.0
Zhirinovsky 11.0
Prokhorov 8.4
Mironov 6.0
Invalid 1.6
AK, you wrote 6.4 for Mironov but 6.0 should be correct (add up 100.0)
Thanks!
I just want to comment on some of the comments that have been made here:
1. Though unlike Mark Sleboda I have no inside knowledge I have absolutely no doubt that the provocations he has mentioned are being planned and may well happen. In fact one of the most extraordinary aspects of this affair is that the people who intend to engage in these provocations have been openly boasting about it. A few points I would make are
(1) that in contrast to what happened in December the authorities on this occasion must be aware and will have contingency plans to deal with these sort of provocations; and
(2) the fundamental difficulty the opposition faces is that it has no convincing candidate who it can say that the elections have been rigged against. The reason the colour revolutions in Serbia, Georgia and the Ukraine succeeded was because in Kostunica, Saakashvili and Yushchenko the opposition had candidates it could plausibly (though perhaps untruthfully) claim had won. There is no one like that in this election.
(3) the fact that the opposition is already planning to protest the result of the election before a single vote is counted must surely be alerting a lot of people to its agenda.
2. I have repeatedly said that as a non Communist socialist Mironov was the only candidate who could have notionally united the opposition to mount a real challenge to Putin. That this did not happen was as much because of the opposition’s incompetence and self indulgence and its refusal and inability to unite behind Mironov as it is to any faults Mironov may have as a candidate.
3. I am coming round to the view that I greatly over estimated Navalny. He has completely failed to make the impact that I expected. Of the non parliamentary opposition leaders the only one who has in my opinion behaved like a real politician is Udaltsov though the idea that he might one day lead the KPRF is bizarre.
VVP 48.0
MDP 20.0
GAZ 18.0
VVZh 9.0
SMM 4.0
Invalid 1.0
How are the falsifications calculated?
I mean – it seems very strange to have the “official” (or in any way verified) statistics of falsifications.
Falsifications are for curiosity, they won’t of course be part of the process used to determine the winner.
Anatoly, could you correct the (copying?) mistake that has slipped to my numbers in the comparative table? My guess for the share of invalid votes was 1,5%, as can be seen from my post.
VVZ: 4.5
GAZ: 10.0
SMM: 8.0
MDP: 5.5
VVP: 70.1
Invalid: 1.9
I realize my VVP estimate is higher than all the polls predict, but this isnt because I think there will be significant fraud. My guess is Putin will benefit from high overall turnout and lower than expected turnout for some of his opponents (the demoralizing effect of certain loss).
Okay guys, submissions are closed!
Thanks to the 22 heroes who participated. Shame on the cowards who didn’t.))
Attention, @ 2 people.
FyRuPolitics, your choices currently add up to 102.4%. They should add up to 100%. Please fix this or I will have to reduce all your figures equally to get the total down to 100%.
Alexandre Latsa, your choices add up to 104.0%, assuming your predicted share of invalid votes is 4%. I do not accept ranges such as <4%, it has to be an exact figure for the purposes of this competition. They should all add up to 100%. Please adjust your figures ASAP, or I will have to take your 4% invalid votes figure and reduce all your figures equally to get the total down to 100%.
Her indoors, Natalya Vladimirovna, asked me last night who I would vote for today if I were a Russian citizen. I told her if that were the casethat Vladimir Putin would get my vote. She told me she was going to vote for Mironov, but asked me what I thought of Prokhorov. Seems like she’s wavering over where to cast her vote.
No T-shirt for me then…..Putin has *definitely* over 60% (approaching 65%)
A couple of people (Mark and Gladstone) were almost spot on….congratulations.
So according to Rianovosti Putin has just over 64% of the vote but I got the other candidates wrong, especially Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky. Oh well. Congrats to the winner! (which would seem to be Mark from my quick scan of the entries).
And of course the opposition are crying foul and the western MSM is simply reporting that “election observers” have received “thousands” of reports of violations. I remember even before taking the time to read more into the story, that it was more than likely GOLOS that the BBC was referring to as “election observers” and that more than likely truly independent monitors like the OSCE monitoring mission haven’t said anything yet. And just as thought, reading the news online now, all the news agencies seem to be reporting that Golos received between 2,000 and 3,500 violations. All far too predictable really….
I read somewhere, it may have been in the Guardian, that even Golos in its independent tally is saying that Putin won 55% of the vote. Given that this is so one does rather wonder about the point of the protest tomorrow.
How does one explain the results in the Caucasus? We now have film from there. I know of only one confirmed case of ballot stuffing (in Dagestan). How do they achieve their totals? Is it something to do with the writing up of the protocols?
Hunter, you got Putin’s vote exactly right.
Yeah, but I got the others wrong and its the sum of the predicted results difference from the official results, so I fell down there. For Putin’s vote I simply averaged out the February polls and corrected for those who said they weren’t going to vote and then split the undecided vote almost evenly among the candidates with a slight bias against Putin (even then I still ended up with 64-65% estimated for him).
Having got the election result largely wrong I am going to risk another prediction. This is that tomorrow’s protest will be the smallest up to now.
The average lowest 3 estimates for Mironov are about 3.7 percent and highest average 3 for Putin about 67 percent. Possible favorite-longshot bias in the composite estimate?