New Year: 2018 Prediction Calibration Results

My prediction that Melania would divorce trump and marry Putin did not plan out.

Likely the beginning of a pivot from a giant version of Saakashvili’s Georgia to a giant version of current-year Georgia.

I wouldn’t rule this out, though the pivot would not go quite as far as the Georgian one.

Poroshenko as popular as Yushchenko in 2010.

Not true. Poroshenko is the second most popular politician in Ukraine (at worst, a close third). They are all unpopular, but still – he will probably get into the second round before losing there. Yushchenko wasn’t close to that.

If it comes down to Tymoshenko vs. Poroshenko there are a lot of unknown variables. Will enough Easterners see Tymoshenko as a lesser evil and vote for her in the hope that she will be like a post-Saak Georgian leader? Will a lot of undecided nationalists overcome their anger at the poor anticorruption efforts and come to Poroshenko? It is likely Tymoshenko will win but I wouldn’t count out Poroshenko yet and it will be closer than you might think.

Just how far did the Georgian pivot go?

Why do you think that the Russian TFR will fall even further?

Just make a post on CMP & Industrial future this year while you work on your PhD & await becoming unpersoned by Russian Libs. Tnx,

Delusional Svido BS:

I don’t know if things are really all that much beter in Crimea today. This report shows various aspects of Crimean life. People prefer pharmaceuticals from Ukraine; Business shenanigans by a company that makes plexi-glass windows both in Crimea and in Kherson; various opinions about the new Ukrainian Orthodox church; Crimean Tartars being hassled by their new Russian overlords. you be the judge of any ‘progress’.

blob:https://ua.krymr.com/cb07afca-5c8d-4936-ad3a-5b9a27fb8b1c

The above link leads to a not found message. Actually, Crimea at large isn’t looking to go back to Ukraine, in sharp contrast to Svido wishful thinking.

This is probably the biggest reason why I think Ukraine and Russia ties will be more or less normalized soon. Even Poroshenko would love his Lipetsk factory back and even he probably knows his chocolate can’t seriously compete with European brands like Lindt or Godiva in the rest of the world. Russia was responsible for 40% of his total sales.

Russia is the only major, relevant country Ukrainian products or people are actually competitive in.

Otherwise, they are free to join the Sinosphere though. Hohol models are cheaper and look similar to Russian ones, and hohols can be great “Canadian” English teachers teaching hohol “English”.

If Washington made a deal with Beijing under which it will get a lot better coverage from the Western media in return for legalizing gay marriage, say 5 years from now, what is the chance that Beijing will take up the deal? I mean the CPC will be allowed to rule Beijing for perpetuity as long as it adopts progressive social attitudes.

If Washington made a deal with Beijing under which it will get a lot better coverage from the Western media in return for legalizing gay marriage, say 5 years from now, what is the chance that Beijing will take up the deal?

In they don’t care so much about that (yet), so far American propaganda outlets and officials are mainly concerned about ‘human/womens’ rights’ and ethnic minorities (it used to be the Tibetans, but now the Uyghurs are in favour).

But I think Beijing prefers to buy up/threaten hostile media instead. They have already got several Hollywood films and video games to change the bad guys from Chinese to Russians/North Koreans.

Maybe Putin and the Soliviki were offered the same deal by the West 10 years ago, and they refused to bite? Hence the image problems they have now? You know that the children of Chinese elites study in US academic institutions right, and so are likely to care about what their classmates think of them, and hence are likely to be more sympathetic to socially liberal causes just to fit in?

There’s enough Chinese students at most western universities for them to never have to socialise with non-chinese which is generally what happens. That’s not to say that they’re always totally insular; they consume western high culture to a much greater extent than the natives and appreciate the good points of living here, but, on the whole, they dont discuss politics very much or pick up very much ‘progressive’ crap.

https://twitter.com/liangweihan4

Artificial General Intelligence or superintelligence do not happen: 99%

That we know about. I would knock 9% off for the next year because AlphaZero was a definite step closer to generalizing. Eliezer Yudkowsky said it was surprising and maybe AlphaZero is the kind of thing that happens all across the Universe before the world ends, maybe 5 years before or maybe 50 years before.

There was a huge disconnect between media rhetoric and reality on Russian demographics in the late 2000s, it doesn’t really exist as much today.

Hence yes, not a lot to write about it. Seems that it will stabilize at around 1.7, or my Medium (modified) scenario from 2008. I assume that the current fall from 1.8 to 1.6 is temporary, or at least won’t decline further. Russians’ desired TFR is at around 2.5 children per woman, and this figure is usually 0.5-1 children higher than realized TFR, so TFR = 1.5 would be at the lowest end of that range.

Though Russia has if anything overperformed my life expectancy projections, where it is tracking the High scenario.

Galicia is the only region that is actually anti-Russian.

A lot of central Ukraine has become anti-Russian too. Central Ukraine now is more anti-Russian than Galicia was in 2013. I suspect there has also been a shift (though not as strong) in southern/eastern Ukraine but I don’t know those parts as well.

I have a lot of central Ukrainian relatives and the shift I’ve seen in them has been enormous. One of therm got estranged from their own brother in Moscow due to nationalism.

Central Ukraine seems to be pretty mixed, likely eager to restore economic but not political/military relations.

Eager is too strong a word. But it would benefit economically from better ties. For Galicia it simply would not matter economically, it’s doing fine without Russia, better now than ever before.

Of course East Ukraine won’t stop being pro-Russia

It’s more complicated. The extreme anti-Russian groups such as Azov are from Eastern Ukraine, too. Over 50% soft pro-Russia (wants economic and even political ties restored, but still opposes Donbas-type rebellion and Crimean takeover), but mixed with extreme anti-Russian elements, particularly among youths.

Even if Ukraine doesn’t approach post-Saakashvili Georgia’s Russia-friendliness, it will probably be at least where China-Taiwan relations are nowadays

If it goes in this direction – very realistic.

Ukraine simply can’t survive as a functional country without resuming high volumes of trade, travel, intertwined media markets, and air/rail traffic with Russia

It would function still better economically with them, but it’s functioning fine without them. 3+% GDP growth, paying off debts, etc. etc. The East is in bad shape, but the West is the best it has been since World War II, and the Center is in the middle. A lot of Ukrainians, the plurality, think the price is worth it, to get the country out of Russia’s orbit. It’s why parties who want to restore full economic ties aren’t getting more than 30% support nationally and are only over 50% in the East (not even in the South).

Were you able to locate the video clip? It’s within ‘Crimea Realities’, it’s titles Windows on Crimea (1/12/19), in Ukrainian:

blob:https://ua.krymr.com/adbf5c1c-417a-4fb3-b33d-a5b8cf01ec29

“Incidentally, this was probably the last series of quantitative predictions I am going to do. Ultimately, there are markets for this sort of thing.” – I always thought the point of those was showing how good you are as an analyst to people considering reading your other work, not trying to outdo anyone else per se. Also, wasn’t the 50% level meaningless, since each is equally a “prediction” of the opposite?

One of my pet peeves with Hollywood is the profusion of Nazi villains. Obviously, a big part of it is explained by predilection, but I think there is also a commercial aspect to it. Germans are more willing to accept Germans as villains than other countries are willing to accept themselves as villains.

According the early data, for 2018, it was in the high end of 1,5 range, while fall in fertility rate in 2018 was multiple times less than the fall in 2017 hence “stabilization”. I don’t say it will fall further.

What will be a fertility rate in future years you can’t predict.

I assume that the current fall from 1.8 to 1.6

For 2018, according to the early information, I saw in the media it will probably be in the high end of 1,5 range – have you calculated.

. I assume that the current fall from 1.8 to 1.6 is temporary, or at least won’t decline further.

You predict increases similar to this view (for Germany)
http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/pdf_bib/dp-579.pdf

No, because whole point is that with fifty percent confidence you are expected to get half right and half wrong.

Ergo for the other levels.

One can also view quantitative 50 percent predictions as actual predictions. So, in this respect, my btc prediction was extraordinarily accurate, while my oil prediction was pretty bad.

I know you’re joking, but I attribute the unfolding of world wars primarily to geopolitics, Germany being the largest ethnic nation in Western Europe. If France had been larger, it would have been more aggressive. Or replace Germans with the English and it would have been the English – just look at the response to the Kruger Telegram. Or how in the American Civil War, it was the North that invaded the South.

That’s part of why the potential complete takeover of Germany is so worrying. Not that a super-enriched Germany would be very formidable – just their opponents would not have much in the way of numbers.

For 2017, it was 1,62. In 2018, it was fallen below 1,6 (although not all months data released yet).

But the authorities say they will increase it back to 1,7 by the year 2024.

Obviously, it’s mainly independently from them.

At the same time, life expectancy increases, and immigration falls. GDP per capita will continue to increase and unemployment rates will be falling.

That may all be true, however, the video clip clearly indicates that Crimeans are fed up with getting less than satisfactory Russian pharmaceuticals. As you live in Russia and have made it clear that you do not experience these deprivations and in fact seem to enjoy a steady supply of ‘hard drugs’ presumably of high quality, I was hoping that you might chime in and offer your vantage point, or at the very least, suggest where desperate Crimeans might be able to access more credible sources? 🙂

The King of England is now a Nazi??…

Zeitgeist was a factor in the world wars.

Say what you like about the culpability of ethnic Germans – even if it were somehow all true, and Germany ethnically re-established to its demographic peak, it would in no way be as dangerous as a billion Nigerians living in the strategic heart of Europe.

One of my pet peeves with Hollywood is the profusion of Nazi villains. Obviously, a big part of it is explained by predilection, but I think there is also a commercial aspect to it. Germans are more willing to accept Germans as villains than other countries are willing to accept themselves as villains.

Up to a certain point. Multiple sources tell me that at least one US made film featured in Germany Die Hard with a Vengeance (mentioned by songbird at this thread), had translated the German bad guys in that film into Russians.

Circa 1990s to the present, Germans at large (especially in mass media and body politic), have been among the most anti-Serb, for a reason that seems to dwell on the notion that Germans aren’t the only ones doing bad WW II like manner – never minding that the wars in former Yugo were nowhere near as gruesome as what the Nazis did.

In the case of the Serbs, I also sense that a good number of Germans see the Serbs as pesky mini-Russians, who gave the Germans a hard time in two world wars.

Is you shrink available? Does he vacation in Arizona during the wintertime?…

I once worked for a highly intelligent, extremely emotional A personality type Italian. What an experience! I’ve only had close encounters with Germans (in America) 2-3 times in my life. From my perspective, they can actually be very sweet people, but at times they do seem to pander for your approval. All of the nationalities have gifted and incredible people. The IQ controversy that you read about within these pages, doesn’t really explain the high propensity of great genius found within artists of color. Artistic genius is hard to quantify, I guess. But it’s real.

Have you seen Mel Gibson’s “The patriot”? Demonstrated conclusively that the Waffen-SS modeled its behaviour (locking civilians in churches and burning them) on that of British redcoats.
George III was the original Hitler.
(also relevant: that South Park episode about “America’s oldest enemy”).

Women just don’t want to have more than 1-2 children.

iirc actual number of children is usually lower than ideal number in Western societies though (that means women have fewer children than they want…or at least claim to want), so there should be some room for improvement.

I don’t have time to reply right now. But will come back to this later…

Russia is the only major, relevant country Ukrainian products or people are actually competitive in.

But does the RF want this competition?

https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1078960420436758531

Grand plans may sound optimistic, but I’ve long since ceased to believe in them. If we set aside extreme futurist alterations a la Asimov’s “Foundation”, we have a rather simple picture:

• human beings live, normally, in communities: tribes, peoples, nations, …. differing in cultures, customs, languages, myths, loyalties, laws, …

• the basic unit is monogamous family. Never mind India, China, Islam, …-polygamy was for a select few, rich & powerful. Man & woman & children, family- that is human life.

• women, virtually all of them, want their man, want children & family. This is the center of their life. Perhaps 15% of them will never have children (health, environmental changes, “destiny”, ..). They want, basically, soft patriarchy; they want their men to be superior, but not brutes & savages. Also, they want some financial independence & a decent level of education, not to be confined to drudgery of purely domestic life. That’s what makes them happy (plus some chocolate).

Some women with “male brain” may have different priorities, but they’re in the minority.

• that goes for modern women, white & some Asian. Others, like black females, Muslim women (most of them), Mestizo women, dot Indian females & feather Indian women, various colored mixtures in SE Asia … will, in a foreseeable future, retain their traditional roles of male exchange commodities & essentially men’s slaves. They will remain religious sex & satisfied with it. Not only feminism, but basic women’s rights don’t mean much to them. It is in their nature, particularly re Africans: https://heartiste.wordpress.com/2018/02/08/the-particularism-of-white-morality/

.. Senegal was not a hellhole. Very poor people can lead happy, meaningful lives in their own cultures’ terms. But they are not our terms. The excrement is the least of it. Our basic ideas of human relations, right and wrong, are incompatible. […]

Take something as basic as family. Family was a few hundred people, extending out to second and third cousins. All the men in one generation were called “father.” Senegalese are Muslim, with up to four wives. Girls had their clitorises cut off at puberty. (I witnessed this, at what I thought was going to be a nice coming-of-age ceremony, like a bat mitzvah or confirmation.) Sex, I was told, did not include kissing. Love and friendship in marriage were Western ideas. Fidelity was not a thing. Married women would have sex for a few cents to have cash for the market.

What I did witness every day was that women were worked half to death. Wives raised the food and fed their own children, did the heavy labor of walking miles to gather wood for the fire, drew water from the well or public faucet, pounded grain with heavy hand-held pestles, lived in their own huts, and had conjugal visits from their husbands on a rotating basis with their co-wives. Their husbands lazed in the shade of the trees.

• there is no going back in history. Socialists in the 2nd half of the 19th C had progressed with their liberation of women, then this became universal way of behavior in civilized world across the globe & this issue is settled, permanently (for Europeans & their descendants). Those who think that women should give up voting rights; that they should – most of them- remain housewives, that they should give up education & financial independence are delusional. These male movements, men’s separatism, …. this all is reactionary stupidity not worth discussing. An aside- gay “marriage” is actually a non-issue. It is unimportant & does not have any real significance in modern world re stable family structure & fertility.

So, in immortal Chernyshevsky’s words: What is to be done?

Later….

*

Also, they want some financial independence & a decent level of education, not to be confined to drudgery of purely domestic life. That’s what makes them happy

Education, yes, but women actually wanting ‘careers’ is (for most women) something they’re brainwashed into and because of an obsession with status. I doubt many women would really prefer working as tax accountants to looking after their own children otherwise.

financial independence

Very few women with children are ‘financially independent’ without state subsidies or money forcibly confiscated from their husbands

I suspect the stuff Ukrainians say about Crimea is about as accurate as the stuff Russians say about Ukraine. Some friends from Moscow visited Crimea and their impressions were very positive. A caveat may be that losing water from Ukraine will be bad for agricultural enterprises, but tourism and money sent from Russia more than compensates for this. Also – the Crimeans who were against Russian rule (such as the ethnic Ukrainian boxer Usyk, and many Crimean Tatars) have largely left, while many Russian settlers have arrived. So strictly from a population perspective, never mind due to economics, the place is more pro-Russian than before.

Did a lot of Tatars leave Crimea after the 2014 census there? I know that the Tatar percentage in Crimea was unchanged between 2001 and 2014 (which is when the last two censuses there were conducted).

Assigning probabilities to your prediction confidence and then reviewing the results afterward is a great practice. Call it “truth in punditry.” For obvious reasons, 99% of professional prognosticators would never do this (how’s that for a prediction).

But one interesting aspect of the practice is that — depending on one’s philosophy about uncertainty — it doesn’t really say anything about the accuracy of individual predictions.

For example, if you estimated a 70% probability of event X happening and it didn’t happen, no one can say the probability wasn’t exactly 70% when you made the prediction. You could have been exactly right on the odds but the dice just happened to roll the less likely 30% outcome (which will, of course, happen 30% of the time).

But when you aggregate your confidence levels and compare them with the actual outcomes (e.g., how often your 30%, 50% and 70% predictions come true), it does begin to create a pretty valid method for measuring your predictive powers — the confidence in your confidence, one might say.

The next level of analysis that would be interesting would be to compare your predicted outcomes to the conventional wisdom.* It’s like football betting: predictions are only valuable if they can beat the established point spread, or the over-under line. A prognosticator should definitely get more points for predicting deviations from the conventional wisdom.

*Admittedly, this would be hard, as the SOP of professional pundits is to hedge everything so that they always have plausible deniability. (For example, “I think this is definitely something that may happen . . .”).

The IQ controversy that you read about within these pages, doesn’t really explain the high propensity of great genius found within artists of color. Artistic genius is hard to quantify, I guess. But it’s real.

Subjective matters of taste are obviously at issue in deciding who is an artistic genius. But it seems to me that outlier groups may have a built-in advantage in perceived “creativity” simply because they are different from the norm.

What’s conventional in one sub-culture may seem very novel and edgy to the mainstream.

Germany lost territory at the end of WW II, with much less fuss made.

Not sure if this was a good thing.

On the other hand, the Japanese approach, having territorial disputes with all (three) neighbours is also stupid.

Why are you telling me this? Have I suggested anywhere that the German nation was somehow the primary source of barbarism for subsequent national disorders?

The Hollywood Jews have taught you well.

Crimean Tatars are a mixture of Tatar invaders with local Greeks, Germans (Ostrogths) whom they assimilated. They are natives, in the way that Spanish-speaking Mestizos in Mexico are natives:

http://nationalclothing.org/images/2015/02/Crimean-Tatar-children.jpg

A DNA analysis of a Crimean Tatar,which is probably typical:

http://www.iccrimea.org/reports/genographic-results.html

28% Northern Asian
22% Northern European
20% Southwest Asian (Middle East)
20% Mediterranean
7% Southeast Asian
2% Native American

That just reflects people whose ancestors in Siberia were related to those who left for North America; it should be added to the Asian total.

That’s not that much in the grand scheme of things.

Also, do you know how many Russians moved to Crimea since 2014?

There will probably be a demographic race in Europe as well. That’s a big part of the mystery: how can a state become natalist without encouraging the local hostile-alien populations to grow?

I doubt if it can be done without explicit racism. (Well, perhaps, in theory but it would involve an unworkable conspiracy, with full cooperation of all whites ). Therefore legal or explicit racism in the law is necessary for Europe’s survival. So, far I don’t see any sign of it being adopted.

Japan and China are very lucky, since they don’t really have this problem.

Crimean Tatars are a mixture of Tatar invaders with local Greeks, Germans (Ostrogths) whom they assimilated. They are natives, in the way that Spanish-speaking Mestizos in Mexico are natives:

By that measure one can justify the Arab conquests, Mongols, Turks, mumerous invasions of India, etc.

I wonder though which “artists of colour” he was thinking of…I suppose it isn’t a reference to rap music…maybe certain indigenous art styles?

He was a bit vague:

All of the nationalities have gifted and incredible people. The IQ controversy that you read about within these pages, doesn’t really explain the high propensity of great genius found within artists of color. Artistic genius is hard to quantify, I guess. But it’s real.

It sounds a bit like a reference to Jazz, latin music, etc.

A lot of people like the popular culture of non-white Americans or their native art. But then again a lot of people also like abstract art.

It would be elucidating if Hr. Hack could give examples of what he considers ‘great genius’.

That’s true for all negatively depicted groups in Hollywood movies though…Hollywood Nazis (who are often depicted as psychologically abnormal sadists) are caricatures too.
Or think of the Russians in Rambo 2/3, or Serbs in some movies from the 1990s/early 2000s (e.g. there was a hilariously evil Serb sniper in Behind enemy lines in 2001). All absurd stereotypes which are hard to take seriously.

Those are not funny though, just dull.

I’m not justifying the conquests (including of Tatars into Europe), just pointing out that the product of the conquest can often be considered to be natives. If Turks weren’t heavily native Anatolians, they would resemble Kazakhs.

Here are Turks:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-znqzDRmlhFw/Ur3rKOqS4kI/AAAAAAAAA5k/eN4azsk1Nng/s320/%C4%B1+fuck+on+the+first+date.jpg

Here are Kazakhs:

https://weproject.kz/upload/resize_cache/iblock/0c4/1024_440_2/0c49eeafb8e9ffeed7df194437c93e88.jpg

It would be nice if somebody attempted to substantiate those claims of “genocide” (sic) and “soft deportation”…

The Rosstat and Krymstat data I looked at show a slow general population decline in the RK (and as far as emigration goes, >80% are moving to “mainland” Russia) and some obvious growth (partly due to immigration, both from the rest of Crimea and from elsewhere) in Sevastopol (which is treated separately, being its own administrative subject).

I just have a hard time reconciling that with alarmist “1/5th of the current pop is recent invaders” stuff.

Perhaps something for Karlin to dig into, at any rate. I miss his demographic rundowns.

As an anecdote, a buddy of mine moved to Crimea from northern Russia in 2017, stayed there until this winter, then moved back up north just now. So 1.5 years give or take. Reason being that he works with digital infrastructure and was involved in some of the revamping projects down there, including the new Simferopol airport, and couldn’t be arsed to commute so to speak. Don’t think he “displaced” anyone during his stint there or anything.

He did tell me that he found native Crimeans a bit hick-ish, in lack of a better term, though. Dat imperialist sob!

Crimean Tatar Population in Crimea

About 10,000 left (5% of the population).

The above highlighted figure is wrong. Among the available sources:

https://unpo.org/members/7871

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea

So true about Dzhemilev and the Tatars not being like the Indians of the Western Hemisphere.

Of course they are not like the Indians of the Western hemisphere. They are like the Mestizos of the Western Hemisphere.

I have to honest to be honest with you people, what makes you people think you can win, because if you want your cause to win, you have to change the fundamental teleos of materials and people who are younger than them, and I do not see how that is possible unless the West gets rechristianized and adopts its teleos.

Of course they are not like the Indians of the Western hemisphere. They are like the Mestizos of the Western Hemisphere.

Noticeable difference in the historical context that at times has been used for propaganda puirposes. The Tatars who came to Crimea didn’t predate the Rus era Slavs in that area. The Indians of the Western Hemisphere (in North and South America) predated the European settlers.

The word Mestizo is used to describe mixed race folks in Latin America of Indian AKA indigenuous and other backgrounds – typically, African and/or Euro background(s).

For that matter, North American Indians are very typically of mixed and in some instances very mixed backgrounds.

Jazz is terrible. The Jazz you like was invented for white (really Jewish: Louis Armstrong wore a Star of David pendant his whole life) audiences anyway.

one of my favorites is Romaro Beardin

He is terrible. You see much better work at A-level art shows.

Those with more of an inclination towards natural representation might find current supestar Kehinde Wilde interestin:g:

Not only is he terrible, but (as Sailer wrote about) he outsources the actual painting part to China.

The world is vastly overpopulated, overcrowded countries shrinking is perhaps an inevitable human group reaction. The issue really is the massive increase in Sub Saharan Africans and open borders.

If the British population were to decline to fifty million, ethnically British, I would see this as positive.

How else is NATO to justify itself?

Do you like any modern pop music? It’s all derivative of ‘rhythym & blues’ which is a direct offshoot of jazz.The Beatles were also instrumental in promoting bar mitzvah music too?

It was precisely because the Beatles loved rhythm and blues music so much, and had thoroughly absorbed the music, that they became so wildly popular in America. They not only loved the music, but crucially, they learned from it. In particular, they learned how to balance songwriting craft and instrumental technique with emotional expressiveness. The hallmark of R&B and soul is that it’s both structured and expressive. The Beatles aspired to achieve this balance in their songwriting and in their playing. It’s sometimes overlooked that the Beatles, especially McCartney, were great players, as well as great songwriters. And the Beatles’ conceptions of what it meant to be a great player came from listening to black American musicians.”

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2014/02/09/byron-dobson-dont-forget-rbs-influence-on-the-beatles/5294423/

Big difference between saying that 10,000 Tatars left Crimea versus saying that there’re about ten thousand Tatars left in Crimea.

Um, I never said only 10,000 Crimean Tatars were left in Crimea.

In response to “Did a lot of Tatars leave Crimea after the 2014 census there? ” I wrote 10,000 left.

The other guy understood.

Country is the only modern music genre still made by whites for whites, but even then, (((they))) infiltrated Nashville significantly.

The rest are too Africanized or too niche (e.g. metal). Jazz is black music with (((them))) as the main consumers.

The rest are too Africanized or too niche (e.g. metal). Jazz is black music with (((them))) as the main consumers.

Wrong. The majority of jazz devotees are high paid white urban dwellers, who relish their love of jazz music (they’re relatively young too, picking up where dad and gramps left off):

Nielsen’s Audience Insights Report on jazz music fans (which focuses on listeners aged 25 to 48) shows that these young listeners tend to live in major metropolitan cities and skew 58% male. While they are predominantly white, they are twice as likely to be African-American as the average music listener. They also have a taste for the good life. These listeners are travelers, with a preference for high-end hotel chains, and a higher propensity to fly domestically on most major airlines in the past 12 months relative to other music listeners. They’re also fashionistas and are considerably more likely to buy designer jeans and shop at high-end department stores than other music listeners.

https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2016/brands-that-engage-with-jazz-fans-wont-be-left-singing-the-blues.html
This doesn’t mean that blacks are not into jazz music either. Remember:

It don’t mean a thing if it aint got that swing!

In my estimation, they’re intelligent, educated people who are interested in trends around the world, travel, reading, cuisine and most definitely have an interest in their own, native music called jazz.

You must live in some sort of a static cocoon. 🙂

When I was there this fall I stocked up on pharmaceuticals for my self and as a request for someone. They had high quality Euro/Jap pharmaceuticals available for dirt cheap. I did not pay attention to Russian made stuff at the pharmacy but the pharmacy it self left a very good impression with me. Had everything you would ever need. We had to buy a lot of pediasure for our kid while staying there and got to visit multiple pharmacies.

Furthermore on general standard of living it was pretty good. Can’t compare to US but nobody would expect them to. 6$ for 10gb of data and less then 10$ for home internet.

They’re UN minus Africa.

What I don’t see a bright future for is Donbass. Even Damascus with such a damaging war is still bustling with activity, but Donetsk seems to be a ghost town.

Donetsk hardly looks like a ghost town in the many youtube videos.

I think ultimately the DLNR has a very bright future because it is only a matter of time before it rejoins Russia. Even now, economic recovery is occurring and it’s likely that per capita GDP is steadily converging with Ukraine’s.

Isn’t it a little bit silly to count as a loss (or a win) predictions you made with 50% certainty? After all, if you say it’s fifty percent likely to happen, then you’re implicitly predicting the negative of it happening with the exact same likelihood.

Not a problem – to each his own.

How it feels on the graph…

https://i.imgur.com/Sy5yzfo.jpg?1

But yes now there is a synchonization problem when white and yellow are into demographic transition perhaps a century earlier than browns and blacks.

Although any politicians could avoid this as a relevant problem, just reconceiving aging population as not invariably bad, and not trying to substitute it with immigration (how difficult is it?)

I was reading people (actually commentators on this website) saying African Americans largely stop playing jazz music (about 30-40 years ago), sadly?

Nowadays, I’ll guess some Russian children are probably better in jazz than American equivalents?

….did do hard drugs this year….

I’m so proud of you.

Really nice stuff, the girl on the trumpet is a real gem! But don’t count US kids out. Many highschools and colleges around the country have great youth groups that also can toot their horns. Searching youtube I could see that there are dozens of great youth groups dedicated to jazz around the world. Maybe it really is a Jewish conspiracy theory afoot to help promote blackness to an otherwise white world? 🙂

I could respect you being a retarded Hohol but not worshipping negro musicians.

Don’t educate women, they contribute marginally anyway.

Most of women’s education was Protestant American Christcucks who thought it was a christian thing to do.

Will non negro humanity survive or will the Anglo-American empire. It’s really down to that,

I put faith in the Aryans.

Off this,

Make more military posts & workout more Fat Karlin.

I won’t bother this jew, hohol & nerd infested blog anymore.

I have been reading about it for a long time. It always struck me that the western policy of sanctioning Lukashenka was stupid. It didn’t work, and it needlessly pushed Belarus into Russia’s arms.

Putin needs to do something soon, unless he wants another humiliating defeat. But what could be done at all?

I think it’s correct to assume that high-fertility alien population will grow regardless, so pronatalist policies will have little to no effect on them. Also you can designate that policies in a way they are conditional on work requirement or something like that…also support can be focused on day care, more maternity leave, not just money giveaway. All that stuff will benefit more native population.

Depose Lukashenka and take charge of political transition in the country. We should run Belarus as a kind of protectorate like South Oseetia, controlling its foreign and domestic policies.

At the very least, Russia should ditch its costly subsidies to Belarus – giving money to Lukashenka regime is buying us nothing and it’s a big drain on the budget. Fortunately, Kremlin seems to be moving in that direction.

: how can a state become natalist without encouraging the local hostile-alien populations to grow?

It’s not that clear current government natalist policy (like maternity capital) changes much the birth rate (for any population).

I read even officials saying maternity capital is desirable more because it changes (reduces) the poverty rate, rather than increases birth rate.*

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*E.g. (Sorry no English)
https://www.newsko.ru/news/nk-5063136.html

I agree – current policies are largely ineffective. But in my view, this just means that the incentives have to increase. That governments aren’t taking the problem seriously.

Relative to average incomes in Russia – maternity capital is quite significant and generous as a form of welfare.

However, it probably only changes timing of births (boosting period fertility rate for some years) rather than changing overall cohort fertility rate.

namely bursting the housing, healthcare and education bubbles.

In Russia, healthcare (for mothers) and education costs are not the problem. Housing is also really not expensive (relative to other countries of comparable development, even new housing is usually cheap, if not of high construction quality).

Housing is really cheaper a lot than most of Europe.

Ditch all the fags

In Chechnya, it is always one of the highest birthrate “superstar” regions in Russia. At the same time, gays are often persecuted there. But correlation is not causation here. Rather they are both non-interacting parallel effects of the common cause – the Islamization process in Chechen society.

fags and divorced couples on TV

There are a lot of fags in Russian television, but it is not openly promoted.

On the other hand, in countries like Republic of Ireland gays openly promoted, and the country has a relatively high birthrate for Europe. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/baby-boom-puts-ireland-top-of-eu-birth-rate-table-1.3150045

Is there any causal relation? Gays are more statistically insignificant than people realize (something around 2% of the population in reality), so gays – if they can be made to have children and behave heterosexually – would still only relate to fertility rates of a small percentage of the population.

Help young people socialize.

There’s something here.

Religion is part of this socialization issue. Some extreme religions (Islam, Mormons, Orthodox Jews) of course boost fertility in a crude way, and don’t allow contraception.

But non-extreme religion is not necessarily affecting fertility rate. Poland is the proportionally most religious country in Europe (although degree of religion is non-extreme), and it has one of the lowest fertility rates of any country in Europe

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Ultimately, the whole situation will be solved when development of artificial womb technology reaches the market – this would add enough points to the fertility rate.

Until then, the thing should be pushed for, is to restrict immigration and not allow politicians to try to boost finances by substituting with less pleasanter kinds of immigrants.

Why did the Abrahamic religions, the Germanic tribes, and Zoroastrianism expend so much social effort to suppress homosexuality if as you say, it is basically harmless? Why hasn’t a single culture before the modern era sanctioned same sex marriage?

I think that strategic error of the 50s was the conservatives allowing the gays breathing space to establish themselves in the media and in Hollywood, where their disproportionate influence and the gay mafia allowed them to change the culture in a way that was more friendly to them through their control of the media. I think HL Meckem already pointed this out.

On the other hand, in countries like Republic of Ireland gays openly promoted, and the country has a relatively high birthrate for Europe. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/baby-boom-puts-ireland-top-of-eu-birth-rate-table-1.3150045

That is because it is the Republic of Ireland, an European country which had a TFR of 3+ in the early 80s.
Note that last year’s TFR was the lowest in their history.

Interestingly for Republic of Ireland, their first demographic transition was a generation later than ours. So they should be now in the “1990s” demographically (if they follow our situation)..

Currently their age of birth is rising rapidly (to a high age) so someone needs to apply this “Bongaarts and Feeney formula” to estimate their adjusted fertility rate (it will be higher than the current one).

which had a TFR of 3+ in the early 80s.

Fertility rate is independent though of size of current fertile cohort of women.

Some American Africans say jazz is their music, only. On this website (which is some other dimension), people are saying jazz is Jewish (well they like jazz in Odessa and some say jazz was invented in Odessa).

Dmitry, Jazz is 50% African American…and 42% Russian.It’s no coincidence that by a gigantic distance the most superior and numerous high quality Classical Music composers were Russian at the end of the 19th/beginning of the 20th century.
France and Britain were producing some decent composers at the time, Germany, Italy , Spain ,Hungary and the rest ..not so much…but Russia the undisputed leader.

It’s derivative from these genius Russian composers that Jewish emmigrants to the US were able to learn and misapproriate as their own ,subsequent compositions that lead into this cross-over and “classical” music into “Jazz”. Gershwin ( Russian Empire jew) being the obvious place for people to start.

This morphing of the “New Orleans” and the classical-jazz cross over is what then lead to all the Big band/American Songbook/Beebop stuff.

Every single non-Carol Christmas song was written by a jew in America…most of them of Russian Empire descent…and this applies to much of the Great American songbook in general

For normal listeners and music fans, jazz is too self-indulgent, discordant and monotonous. But if you were playing these particular instruments when you were young – these are the people who grow up into the ‘core’ of the jazz fans – as they admire the musicians are doing in jazz music.

“Modern Jazz” …yes, not so much the Big Band stuff on its own or with the famous singers like Sinatra, Peggy Lee and Sammy Davis Junior…or funk for that matter ( Stevie Wonder being derivative from that)

On a separate note, Andrei Previn, a famous jewish classical music conductor is also a genius at playing jazz piano

Ukrainians were just protesting saxophonist Igor Butman from playing in New York because of his view in Crimea.

https://varlamov.me/2019/nyput1/35.jpg

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Btw Butman and his orchestra – some Jazz version of Rachmaninov C♯ minor prelude –

It’s true that fertility rate of cohort is higher then curent one but still that doesn’t help much…because, yeah it’s better if Irish women gives birth in her late 30s than to not have any kids, but age of birth is also very important.
Consider this, woman A gives birth to 2 kids in her 20s…her kids also have 2 kids of their own in their 20s…so that’s 3 generations, 5 person in 20 year’s time…40 year’s leater 4 generation…
Woman B gives birth to 2 kids in her 30s…if her children do the same, have kids in their 30s, then they will have kids 20 yeas later then women-A-children…only then there will be 3 generation and 5 person in this case…that’s 40 year’s from starting position.
Cohort fertility is the same in both cases.
Well I made this post complicated, english is not my native language, but you can understand what I am trying to say.
It’s better that at least cohort fertility is higher then not but still, time of birth matters a lot.

My most favorite form of jazz over the last 10-15 years has been ‘Latin Jazz’ – it’s the stuff that I really adore. There are many sub variants of this kind of jazz from Brazilian jazz to Afro-Cuban style. I recently saw this group, the Harlem Spanish Orchestra (New York Salsa), that brought the whole house up on its feet swaying together in hypnotic cadence. The music is infectious to say the least:

Utterly unlikely that a cretin as yourself would have ever listened to the likes of Antonio Carlos Jobim or any Cuban jazz – even that song “5 minutes” ( of silence) or whatever it was called would be too tuneful for a thick twat as yourself.

Anyway I would have thought a thick imbecile Svidomite as yourself would have steered clear of any discussion on Jazz – the difference between East and West coast jazz is a million times bigger than the imaginary difference in “Ukrainian” culture and Russian with the same mentality and mannerisms, and that is without saying that East & West coast jazz , they are still both “American” jazz you idiot, much like Russia and Ukraine are one people

Sure it might be better to group generations more closely together. Also the unevenness of change in age of giving birth, creates problems of policy (suddenly the schools go from overcrowded to undercrowded).

On the other hand, mothers who have children later could be more eugenic than dysgenic parts of the population (and this is the kind of people you want to have children).