What are they?
Michael Kofman, who does seem to know what he is talking about and has studied the Russian language literature, has a very comprehensive summary.
- Emerging Russian Weapons: Welcome to the 2020s (Part 1 – Kinzhal, Sarmat, 4202)
- Emerging Russian Weapons: Welcome to the 2020s (Part 2 – 9M730?, Status-6, Klavesin-2R)
How far along are they? To what extent do they even exist?
I don’t know. I suspect few do. Some factors that should be considered, with respect to the more “Strangelovian” contraptions:
Pros:
- Theoretically possible; were conceptualized as early as the 1950s/60s (e.g. Project Pluto).
- Growing share of the Russian military budget has gone black in recent years.
- Nuclear Posture Review (hypersonic glide vehicle Avangard 4202, the R-28 Sarmat ICBM, and Status-6 drone submarine nuke) and Pentagon officials (nuclear-powered cruise missile) have mentioned these projects.
- There have also been intermittent leaks of Status-6 development in the past couple of years.
Contra:
- Scant evidence that the more exotic weapons (Status 6 and nuclear-powered cruise missile) actually exist as more than mockups, or faulty prototypes at best. That Putin’s speech was illustrated by CGI from a 2007 TV documentary doesn’t inspire confidence.
- Russian MIC remains starved of human capital – the best don’t stay at military design bureaus working for 60,000R per month when they could be getting 150,000-200,000R in the private sector.
- Corruption. For instance, just a couple of weeks ago, Novaya Gazeta came out with a well-sourced article on how relatives of Rogozin, head of the Russian MIC, and of an FSB general, seem to have essentially pilfered the funds allocated to establishing a self-contained production chain for thermal imagers within Russia.
- The American MIC and generals have a good record of hyping foreign threads to get more money for their own boondoggles.
- Putin’s recent speech called for major increases in healthcare and infrastructure spending in his next term, and I assume there will be no downsizing of the forest of domestic security organizations that have sprouted up in recent years. Where is the money going to come from? Many signs point to cutbacks in the rearmament program, at the very least as a share of GDP, and maybe even in absolute terms. So the “Russia stronk” rhetoric would make good electoral sense, to satiate the hurrah-patriots with fluff while quietly giving up on military superpower pretensions.
What are they for?
The Kinzhal seems to be an air version of the hypersonic Zircon anti-ship missile, with both of them being very useful from an A2/AD perspective and obviously relevant to potential Russia/US clashes in the Baltics or the Eastern Mediterranean.
As for the nuclear Wunderwaffe, they seem irrelevant in terms of standard nuclear deterrence.
The basic fact remains that the US does not have the capacity to knock out an ICBM/SLBM salvo from Russia, nor does it have the capacity to launch a successful first strike, and it is exceedingly unlikely to obtain this capacity for at least the next few decades. Considering that Russia maintains thousands of active nuclear warheads, the ability to come in from the South Pole with Sarmats would seem redundant; nor does there seem to be any obvious need for the Status-6 doomsday device, when large areas of hostile territory can already be easily “salted” with cobalt-60 through existing solutions.
That said… stated goals aren’t necessarily equivalent to intended ones.
Imagine Russia as the evil Putlerreich were to decide to take the US permanently out of the equation – how can it go about doing that, without getting vanquished in turn?
First, a nuclear-tipped Avangard seems to be a uniquely excellent decapitation tool (also why Moscow always had major issues with the Global Strike program). Could also reach air bases before the strategic bombers took to the air.
Second, counterforce ground bursts from MIRVed warheads take out a large percentage of the ICBM silos, as has always been the plan.
Third, we need to deal with the SSBNs – the most resilient leg of the nuclear triad since their inception. Traditional solutions included assigning nuclear subs to trail American SSBNs, and hoping they’d find and destroy at least some of them on Doomsday; and training batteries of ICBMs to unleash their warheads in a grid pattern on areas of the oceans that space-based Soviet ASW systems identified as likely spawning grounds for American SSBNs.
But what if Status-6 is not meant for the rather pedestrian and quite pointless task of blowing up American harbors, which frankly any other arm of the traditional nuclear triad can easily do, but to quietly trail American SSBNs and suddenly launch at them from deep down at 180 km/h come the day?
I don’t see why this is impossible. Well, apart from myriads of intractable political and coordination problems.
The question that really needs to be answered is just how much of an authoritarian state Russia really is? Could Putler actually get away with ordering a first strike on the U.S? I mean the supporting cast of oligarchs and loyal cheerleaders seem to love the West, and especially the US, where it’s often reported that they shelter funds (for a rainy day) and send their children to be educated. Matyanov seems to hold a grudge against you, Anatoly, for your formative years were spent in the US getting an education, as he himself, purportedly writes his diatribes against you living somewhere in the West. You guys are starting to really earn your pay as ‘Kremlin Stooges’! 🙂
I’m open minded.
I’m not impressed at all with the PAK-FA but on the other hand it appears that Russians (and Euros, for that matter) aren’t as obsessed with low RCS as the US is. When Syria/Iran/Hezbollah go to war with Israel in the next few years we’ll see who was right.
These stand off missile systems could be legit, though. But there is a difference between prototypes and having it actually deployed as part of your force. Again, hopefully we’ll get to see them in action soon.
Look at the most recent PAK-FA prototypes, they even look much better, IMO.
The missiles are certainly impressive, especially Kinzhal, because it seems to be useful even conventionally, but Martyanov’s analysis sounds a little too optimistic. Shocking, I know. But he has been talking about Russian missile capabilities for a long time now, so he was certainly onto something there.
However, he makes these systems sound like literally unstoppable silver bullets, made possible by the mysterious Russian soul (remember the Great Patriotic War, urrah!!!), which us non-Russians can’t possible understand.
While overall Russian military capabilities are certainly much closer to the US than many/most people realize, not only technologically, but also when it comes to procurement, because 1. purchasing power parity, and 2. the fact that the US military really is expensive to maintain and its procurement and spending has undeniably been quite wasteful, I still find it really hard to believe how some of that hype makes any… arithmetic or mathematical (for lack of a better term) sense.
While it’s also certainly possible, or IMO even likely, that carriers really are very vulnerable to a peer/near-peer A2/AD, and that trend is only going to get worse for the US, it still simply sounds too good to be true.
Because despite all the relative decline and all the issues that I mentioned above, it’s obvious that the American technological and economical power is still massive. Any historical analogues of such weapons anyway? US nukes before 1949/late 60s?? (Again, if you believe all that hype to an extreme.)
Kofman’s articles seems to be quite objective. It certainly brings you back to earth, after reading Martyanov’s piece. According to him, MiG-31BMs seem to require additional upgrades to carry the new missile, and only 50 or so would be upgraded by the mid-20s. So if that’s true, it would clearly be one limitation.
I don’t know about you guys but “Putin’s WunderWaffle” sounds like a pancake house I would patronize daily.
Stay for the hashed Kinzhal served up with some scrambled Zircon! And a full stack topped with Sarmat sauce!
Mm…mmmmm!
that doesn’t sound halal at all. Your weakness disgusts me.
Mr. Karlin is referring to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wunderwaffe
For those who’ve worked in process management, its an interesting exploration on the difficulties of implementing even good ideas without sufficient testing and refinement. Unlike in fiction, prototypes rarely become the superweapon that contributes a massive advantage; its more likely to fall over from something unexpected, such as a sudden southeasternly wind.
This is also why its so expensive to train soldiers, because a lot of training processes, such as marksmanship involve spending significant amounts of funds on ammunition and the like.
I know, I was having fun – couldn’t help it.
Someone needs to work on controlling the weather – now that’s a Wunderwaffe!
Peace.
Who says it’s not? Hell, it may serve everything certified by the OU!
Don’t doubt the power of the WonderWaffle!
Peace.
Note: I could also see “Putin’s WonderWaffle” as one of those electronic shenanigans he can go around the world and sell after he retires; like the Foreman Grill! He’s gotta think of how he’s going to fund his retirement to Istanbul.
That sounds as if you think military planners in Russia might be looking at ways to fight and win a nuclear war…have to admit I find that rather disturbing, such ideas are madness.
Russia sees US missile defense as aimed at them. They think that the US is trying to create a situation where the US can attack them while remaining safe from MAD.
The US of course is planning no such thing but the Russians have been paranoid since before the end of WWII.
The point of these weapons is to ensure that the US will not have a defense against Russian nuclear ICBM’s (which won’t happen anyway, the US can’t even build a defense against North Korean nukes), and more importantly, that the US will know that it has no such defenses.
This whole thing is just childish. I read parts of Putin’s speech and it sounded like it came from Soviet times. I cannot believe that a leader of a world power is talking about his country’s weapons systems like some 17 year old fanboy on defense.pk. I hope that it was just for domestic consumption.
That’s not irrational, you can’t really expect people to buy the idea that those missile defense plans are aimed against North Korea or, even more ridiculously, against Iran’s non-existent nukes.
But yes, as you wrote, efficient missile defense seems unlikely, iirc even the tests held under ideal (that is totally unrealistic) conditions had high failure rates. I still find those destabilizing developments undermining mutual deterrence pretty disturbing, much as I dislike most of humanity I’ve got no wish for a nuclear apocalypse.
You don’t win in a nuclear exchange – it is pure scorched earth. Basically it is the equivalent of; since you are willing to murder all our babies, we will do the same to yours.
It’s worse than madness.
The amount of money that goes into this one-upmanship is incredible. This to me has been one of the biggest failures of religious leadership across the world – no one is innocent. The major religious leaders should have been talking to their flocks in order to make them realize how immoral the proposition is and to demand that their political leadership at least as hard as they have about building up these weapons, in getting rid of them. There is no reason we can’t come to a wide moral consensus on this issue.
The fact that this nuclear exchange is considered between two Christian nations is a failure on its own level. If it ever occurs, you can kiss Christianity goodbye – (not only will its major centers go up in smoke) it will have been a moral failure of epic proportions; what the Mongol Hordes did will be held up as morally virtuous.
Peace.
Would it inspire more confidence if they have invested more in CGI?
Would be just a waste of money, unless they intended to bluff.
Why are you so sure?
Barely.
http://russianforces.org/current/
But given the known capabilities of these systems, it is irrational for Russia to think that they are aimed at them.
I don’t think US troops should be in Eastern Europe because I see their presence there as a threat to Russia, but the missiles are harmless. There are only a handful and they are obviously targeting Iran (as if Europe needs to be defended from an Iranian ballistic missile attack), not Russia.
Putin basically just gave a speech bragging about weapons that would defeat a US system that doesn’t even exist. This is a farce and it isn’t good for Russia or America or anybody caught in the middle.
Because it would be impossible.
(1) Small torpedo tracking huge SSBN that is equipped with all kind of detection and counter measure equipment will result in detection of the torpedo sooner than later and then it being destroyed w/o any consequences.
(2) Small torpedo has to have some unknown power source. Nuclear power in very small package? Conversion of heat to mechanical how? Stirling Engine–>Generator—>Electric Engine or some Closed Cycle Steam Turbine?
(3) Is 180km/h really possible?
In 1980’s during Reagan they were showing the world animations how the Star Wars system would work. And it all worked beautifully in animations and many people believed it including Ronald Reagan. Did anybody in Russia believe it?
LOL! You went there! Though it’s defence.pk.
Peace.
Nuclear wars do not actually end humanity and therefore can be survived and won.
Does the Metro 2033 universe feature radical individual autonomy and city-states? I think Nick Land might approve.
Why?
you need me to explain why it would be impossible for the US, with current technology, to intercept an entire salvo Russian ICBMs explicitly designed to penetrate any missile shield?
The US could probably intercept a lot of theatre ballistic missiles like the Scud or the Iranian missiles, but not state of the art ICBMs.
If Russia launched 100 ICBM’s at the US today, I think that maybe 4 or 5 would be intercepted, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it were 0.
This is really intriguing. The sub-launched nuclear warheads are the key to enforcing the MAD doctrine, since (until now) their existence guaranteed that the threat of a retaliatory strike could never be countered. If Russia has found a way to take out the SSBNs, then it appears she now has first strike capability.
According to Vadim Kozyulin, professor at the Academy of Military Science, in 15 years the SM-3 launchers will be able to knock out our nuclear missiles on Russian territory at the moment of launch.
Also you miss the fact that even today, these “defense” systems can be used offensively to launch cruise missiles for a decapitation strike. This is certain for the MK-41 launchers in Romania and Poland.
This is why I don’t doubt Putin’s announcement, the problem was very real and very serious (existential, even) so it would be natural if the Kremlin has been dedicating considerable effort and funds for some time in order to solve it.
You believe that?
For this to be true that would mean that the Pentagon is actually downplaying what their weapons are capable of? Why would they do that?
I don’t think the US will even have a
of such a system in 15 years.
Well, “won” in this instance is a subjective term. I mean, having all of your major population centers completed decimated is not a “win” in my book. Nor is decimating all the population centers of your enemy a consolation prize.
But, along your point, the desert-dwelling Tuareg will go about their business as if nothing ever happened. Those of them with cell phones will wonder why the shiny thing has stopped working.
Peace.
Uhm, Russia is pretty big. A decapitation strike would have to be nuclear (US doesn’t have nukes in Eastern Europe) and to wipe out most (certainly not all) of Russia’s 2nd strike capability would require literally thousands of missiles.
Turkey, Syria, Iran, Israel and Pakistan all have ballistic missiles. All of those countries have chemical/biological weapons and 2 of them have nuclear weapons. The US naturally wants to keep it’s European allies secure from a limited missile strike from one of those states.
I’m not defending US military presence in Europe but while stupid and a waste of money, a small missile shield designed to defend against a small scale attack of crappy missiles is not a threat to Russia and Putin is embarrassing himself to pretend otherwise.
The US are developing hypersonic weapons today, so even though they are significantly behind Russia right now – yes, I absolutely believe that they will have hypersonic missiles to shoot from these launchers, and not after 15 years but much sooner.
The same Mr. Kozyulin said that “the boost phase of Topol-M missiles prior to entry into space is a little under five minutes.” So a “defense” launcher close to Russia’s borders will have time to intercept ICBMs before they go to space. Not now, but in the near future.
And the Russians of course are not going to wait for that future to arrive without doing anything.
Ukraine made video of proposed wunderwaffen first:
http://defence-blog.com/news/ukraine-develops-hypersonic-cruise-missile.html
The Yuzhnoye State Design Office is jointly developing with the State Space Agency of Ukraine the new hypersonic cruise missile.
The press-service of “Yuzhnoye” design bureau released video footage showing a new concept of high-altitude hypersonic unmanned aerial vehicles, includes the project of a hypersonic cruise missile.
The development of new hypersonic unmanned aerial vehicle is an ongoing process of search for new technological solutions. It was reported that, to date, “Yuzhnoye” develops the components of new hypersonic unmanned aerial vehicles and has been carrying out important work into high-temperature materials applicable to hypersonic unmanned aerial vehicles.
The new missile would constitute a maneuvering, high-altitude hypersonic cruise missile. The missile will be equipped with the solid-fuel engine for booster stage accelerates it to supersonic speeds and supersonic combusting ramjet engine for hypersonic flight.
Publicly available reports indicate that the new Ukrainian hypersonic cruise missile will be able to reach hypersonic speeds and to exceed a speed of 1,700 m/s. The range of the new missile is estimated to be 300 to 1750 kilometers.
:::::::::::::::::::::
Probably 20 years (at least) until, or if, the thing will be produced. Financing by a wealthier partner and sharing (would Poland like some of these?) might speed things up.
Purpose of investment in these projects (and MAD doctrines generally) is not to bring about nuclear war, but to raise the cost of it – to make it inconceivable. Counter-intuitive aim should be that nuclear war becomes less likely as a result.
Of course, I would agree with the general point, that we seem to be going through some kind of ‘phantom limb’ syndrome from Cold War times. There is nothing really so irreconcilable about America, that appears to deserve the level of deterrence. And certainly no-one on either side is interested in actual nuclear war. Current causality of situation are taxpayers/government budgets who have to fund over-spending on those projects, which might otherwise have gone into infrastructure, scientific research into curing cancer, etc.
Karlin, need you to check out these links especially the second:
https://therebbeblog.wordpress.com/2018/03/04/truth-about-islamic-immigration/
https://therebbeblog.wordpress.com/2017/09/04/the-sabbatean-frankist-paradigm-is-statistical-certainty/
Sabbatean-Frankist is the name of a heretical kike sect which the author shows disprotionately includes major Jewish Leftist figures from Judge Rabbi Stephen Wise to Marx & Freud।।
Indeed.
I expect that Mr. Putin was mostly talking to his domestic base, pumping up the patriotism. A secondary goal would be to remind the Western elites that Russia can destroy us and we can’t do anything about it (other than destroy Russia in return). Yes, I know, that should be obvious to anyone with half a brain. Which is possibly why Putin thinks that the Western elites need reminding…
On a more technical note, great speed in a missile that is going to hit a pre-programmed stationary target is surely useful. But in something that is going to try to hit a moving target like an aircraft carrier, maybe not so much, because electronic jamming etc. travels at the speed of light. A hypersonic system that misses is of little use. How well will Russian guidance systems fare against Western jamming systems and decoys etc.etc.? I have no idea. Probably nobody has any idea, and we won’t, until after the shooting (if any) starts.
Michael Kofman, who does seem to know what he is talking about and has studied the Russian language literature, has a very comprehensive summary.
Waving your red cape in front of Vice Admiral Martyanov, you happy primitive you.
one of the biggest failures of religious leadership across the world
Religion has failed.
Liberalism is failing.
I don’t know. I suspect few do.
Someone knows.
Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!
While Sabbateans as Donmeh in Turkey may still have some political influence Frankists seemed to stopped practicing endogamy in 19 century. Nobody can ever point to Francis’s anymore so they point to Jews who came from families that never were Frankists. The point of being a Frankist is that might be a crypto Jew, say, practicing Catholicism and not being Jewish overtly. Stephen Wise, Justice Brandeis, Justice Frankfurter, and Jacob Schiff were Jews not Frankists. It is also said that Jacob Frank rest of his life lived near Frankfurt and allegedly had an influence on Rothschilds but even if so it means nothing because Rothschilds remained Jewish. If however somebody show that Catholic Church hierarchy had many Frankists then this would get my attention but I haven’t seen it.
If I agreed with you on the first point, I wouldn’t be Muslim. I’m actually fairly happy with religion as an institution on the whole. It has certain failures for sure – as does any human enterprise. Part of life I guess.
It’s all about the cup-half-full-or-half-empty perspective. I don’t expect this world to be Paradise any more than I expect a lizard to be a prize race horse.
Agreed, though it has brought certain good things – for instance, we all benefit from certain labor laws.
Peace.
Whoever said the U.S.A. is a Christian nation? That certainly is an odd notion. Every grownup knows whose nation it is.
I am not so certain there is a difference between liberalism and religion.
That’s fine if that’s your angle, but then it’s Christian’s fault for letting it become that way. The issues are systemic – you cannot pass the buck perpetually and not take a level of responsibility.
Peace.
You should tell this to our critics; people keep complaining that the Shariah is not liberal enough.
That would certainly take some pressure off of us to redefine our inheritance rules and such.
Peace.
What sort of Muslim are you (begins foaming at the mouth), and are you planning to blow up this comments section???
Seriously though, I’m a liberal Protestant (meaning i accept some enlightenment approaches to religion like higher biblical criticism), and from an objective perspective, when we strip away the doctrines, religion seems to be an orientation toward Being. It’s the response of a defined group of people to fundamental questions about life at an aesthetic, phenomenological, ritual, and pre-rational level. How do we relate as ‘beings-there’ (to use Heidegger’s term referring to the contingency of space and time) to that there is a what there is.
Atheists can tip their fedora all they want, but all they’re demonstrating is they’ve shut down an entire dimension of their existence.
How did the Soviets manage to develop new weapons without corruption getting in the way?
You’re referring to Jehova’s Witnesses, right?
LOL – yes, but only after I eat your children!!! Dun, dun, dunnnn!!!
The rest of your points were quite eloquent, I don’t think I could have put them better.
Yes, it seems human beings are hardwired to have a higher assumption about ourselves as far as being and purpose is concerned.
And it seems if you try to remove religion, certain impulses simply find other outlets:
“The demise of religion among American youth is greatly exaggerated. It turns out that America isn’t raising a new generation of unbelievers. Instead, rising in the heart of deep-blue America are the zealots of a new religious faith. They’re the intersectionals, they’re fully woke, and the heretics don’t stand a chance.”
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/intersectionality-the-dangerous-faith/
Peace.
Yea it feels like Jews trying to slither into RW cuz even if frankists made Leftism it doesn’t absolve Jews for cow slaughter, circumcision or mosaic distinction।।
How do institutions like this survive without contracts with Russians? I mean what is their source of revenue?
IMHO, it’s far more likely to shut down, than produce a hypersonic missile in 20 years.
Good point about the speed but USA jamming is behind & lot of missiles fly subsonic until the last phase where it’s just about whether it can be shot down or not.
These missiles are fired in Salvos and there’s a limit to how many targets a Ciws can engage per second for example & also how many missiles it takes to intercept a faster target.
For example a standard subsonic Missile is targeted by 1 + 1 defensive missiles but you may need a few more for super or hyper sonic.
This is the important part,
You are an idiot.
Everybody has first strike capability.
The trick is to not make it last strike capability.
(It would be of some interest to quip the SSBNs with the nuclear-powered ramjet, if such would prove not too unhealthy for the crew: you could launch from the deep south pacific or some other area, completely out of harm’s way. The problem with the SLAM is that it is untestable. Maybe a good occasion to start exploring atmosphere-rich planets like Venus with SLAMs?)
The search shall go on, but what are the problems?
These projects are basically make-do work where taxpayer money is moved into state institutions to stem the braindrain / honour kickback promises / honour various quid-pro-quote regional or minsterial contracts. It’s not something that is meant to come up with the good stuff.
That is just pure speculation on my part (e.g. Status-6 – if it even exists – being designated for an anti-SSBN role).
I would argue there is nothing wrong with “looking at ways to fight and win a nuclear war,” since it is a real possibility (probably around 0.5% in any one year right now).
Lol triggered abrahamic sister seller।।
Russia is still using their engines:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/12/zenit-rocket-angosat-1-launch/
And Canada is helping:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/canso-spaceport-launch-outline-1.4431692
Don’t believe fairytales that this has died.
All Soviet era military enterprises in the Ukraine are forbidden from cooperating with “agressor” country. That’s not a myth, but official regime’s policy. It’s plausible that Russia keeps a large stock of Ukrainian engines, that were delivered prior to 2014, but there is no way for Yuzhmash to sell any new ones, unless they are selling them illicitly.
I really think that Soviet-era entities like Antonov, Yuzhmash are destined to die – there is no place for them in Euro-oriented Ukraine, but we should probably bomb them to be sure. 😉
https://phys.org/news/2017-12-russia-telecoms-satellite-angola.html
The Zenit-2SB rocket carrying Angosat to orbit was supplied by Ukrainian maker Yuzhmash, making the launch a rare joint project between the two countries since 2014, when Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.
The Angosat project was agreed by Russia and Angola in 2009 and includes the satellite, its launch, and on-ground infrastructure in a suburb of the capital Luanda.
The approximately $280-million project has been financed with a credit from Russia’s state banks.
::::::::::::::
So Russia has its engine, and Ukraine has financing to pursue weapons that may in 20 or so years serve as a deterrent to further aggression. Everyone wins.
Maybe, but that seems like wishful thinking. Canada will now be using engines from Yuzhmash. More likely, ongoing existence at a smaller level.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-yuzhmash-north-korea-rocket-technology-report/28821134.html
In fact, Yuzhnoye and Yuzhmash officials say, things are looking up.
Sokolov says new contracts are helping to stabilize Yuzhmash. The company expects growth between 1.5 and 3 percent over the next year, according to Sokolov. Meanwhile, Yuzhnoye has hired 500 new employees, including 200-250 straight out of Dnipro’s engineering schools, over the past year, according to Mashchenko.
Already this year there have been two successful launches of the European Space Agency’s Vega rocket, which included parts designed by Yuzhnoye and made by Yuzhmash.
The companies are looking forward to at least one more rocket launch this year. An Antares rocket designed and built in partnership with American aerospace manufacturer Orbital ATK is set to launch before 2018 to resupply the International Space Station.
Accuses me of wishful thinking.
Quotes American propaganda station and Ukrainian officials, who say things are “looking up”. Because these guys wouldn’t lie. Obviously.
Were the facts I pasted wrong or not, wishful thinker?
Facts being:
The Russian Zenit-2SB rocket carrying Angosat to orbit was supplied by Ukrainian maker Yuzhmash, making the launch a rare joint project between the two countries since 2014
Yuzhnoye has hired 500 new employees, including 200-250 straight out of Dnipro’s engineering schools
Already this year there have been two successful launches of the European Space Agency’s Vega rocket, which included parts designed by Yuzhnoye and made by Yuzhmash
An Antares rocket designed and built in partnership with American aerospace manufacturer Orbital ATK is set to launch before 2018 to resupply the International Space Station
:::::::::
So are those facts, or are they not?
If you’re talking about this:
The part highlighted in bold is the operative one. It is obvious that cooperation with Russia can no longer provide a consistent revenue stream for Ukraine as did prior to 2014. Aerospace industry in the Ukraine is thus reduced to pining for scraps. They are offering “parts” to somebody else’s rockets.
In this light it’s not at all clear to me why would they need to hire new employees – are these people going to work for free? This part definitely sounds like BS to me.
They are building engines for rockets used by others.
Canada will be launching entire rockets:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/canso-spaceport-launch-outline-1.4431692
“With a launch date of 2020, and 18 months of construction and six months of commissioning, you can see where we’ve got to get to groundbreaking. So this is an important and key time for us,” said the executive, who represents a consortium of three U.S.-based space firms.
He presented rocket designers and executives from Ukrainian-based Yuzhnoye Design with a case of Rocket Lager craft beer — recently created in Guysborough County by a craft brewer and featuring an astronaut on its label.
Maksym Degtiarov, a rocket design executive with Yuzhnoye State Design Office, was on hand for the news conference to say the Ukrainian firm is prepared to ramp up its production of Cyclone-4M medium-lift rockets to supply the site.
“We expect it to happen up to 12 times a year. From six to 12 times a year,” he said. Matier added the firm is capable of producing one of the rockets about every 29 days.
:::::::::::
So, wishful thnker, while the scale of the industry will be reduced from Soviet times, it is growth from a few years ago, and enough to keep going. This would probably explain the new hires.
You’re talking about some future project, which may or may not pan out, and the Ukraine may or may not be a part of it. It’s the very definition of wishful thinking. 😉
Maybe, but it’s a serious project described in non-Ukrainian news sources too:
http://www.russianspaceweb.com/canso.html
Well, you dismiss particiaption in Euroepan, Russian and American space programs as “scraps” and assume that this project won’t go through. It seems like your thinking is less objective.
Ukraine’s contract for supplying engines for Europe’s Vega rockets has been renewed until 2020:
https://uawire.org/ukrainian-contract-with-europe-on-supply-of-engines-for-vega-rockets-extended-till-2020#
The Ukrainian National Industrial Portal announced on Monday, January 8 that the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau, the Yuzhmash plant and the Italian company Avio SPA signed an agreement to continue the Vega project.
The contract for the delivery of sustainer engines for 4th-stage Vega RD-868P carrier rockets has been extended till 2020. Under the contract, Yuzhnoye Design Bureau and Yuzhmash enterprises will manufacture and supply twenty more RD-868P engines
The original contract was signed in February 2004 and allowed Yuzhnoye to develop a VG-143 sustainer engine that is part of the liquid propulsion system of the carrier rocket’s booster block. It is designed to create thrust, control the thrust vector, maneuver the upper stage, and withdraw the upper stage from orbit.
The Vega carrier rocket was developed by European Space Agency together with the Italian Space Agency. It is designed for launching 1,200 kg satellites into solar-synchronous orbit at 1,200 km or satellites weighing 1,500 kg to a polar orbit with a height of 700 km.
::::::::
Not true facts, wishful thinker?
So again, the facts suggest not dissapearance as wishful thinkers would like, but ongoing existence at a lower level than in the 1980s but still stable. Enough to support these military projects.
More facts for the wishful thinker:
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Space_Ukrainian_style_Through_Crisis_to_Revival_999.html
One might think that the global crisis and the series of financial losses over the past three years would have driven the final nails into the coffin of Ukraine’s space industry. Yet there was no crash.
Ukraine still has its ERS and Navigation Field Data Receiving Centre. Dniprocosmos, the Dnipro branch of NCSFCT is also still operating, developing software for the flight control centres and ERS data processing, as is the Zahidny Radar Servicing Centre for the space tracking station.
The industry was in need of a complete “reset” and actively mobilized in search of new sales markets and opportunities for business diversification. And they found them. Ukrainian companies have begun manufacturing the first stage of the Antares carrier-rocket for the US company Orbital ATK.
Jointly with the European and Italian space agencies the Yuzhnoye design office is working on the RD-843 main propulsion systems for the fourth stage of the Vega carrier-rocket. And in 2016, a new 5-year collaboration plan was signed with China, in which Ukraine’s share in joint projects increased by 40% compared to the previous year.
Negotiations are underway with Poland and Lithuania as well. These countries do not yet have a serious aerospace background, but in conjunction with Ukraine they aim to make substantial progress in this area. Next up is cooperation with South Korea, India, China and Spain. The industry’s proactive stance has already produced results, with production and product sales up 47% and 40%, respectively, in the first half of 2016, compared to the same period of 2015 (data from the State Space Agency of Ukraine).
it’s pretty clear the banking mafia are at least considering taking out both Russia and the USA as part of their move to China.
although that would imply the simplest and most effective wunderwaffe would be one that took out the ability of the banking mafia to start a war.
depends who the “you” is – if someone wanted to take out both Russia and the USA and believed they personally would survive (and even be better off) then they might see that as winning.
@you can kiss Christianity goodbye
Adopt Islam, they just cut throats and burn alive people individually.
Sure, that seems to be Daesh’s calling card. Pretty nice they don’t have a state anymore.
I’d like to get your thoughts on the morality of using nuclear weapons. First strike? Retaliatory? Should we attempt, as collective humanity, to get rid of them?
That’s a good point, but I don’t think it’s that easy. Some who have done estimates and projections don’t think much of humanity will survive due to unintended consequences on food sources:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=M7hOpT0lPGI
Peace.
Of course they are immoral. Actually immoral were the people who made first the bomb, used it and intended to use it in future conflicts, convinced that nobody else would make a nuclear bomb. No doubt that the guilt lays at USA feet.
Building the atom bomb by the Russians was moral because it cooled the heads of the warmongers.
To get rid of the nuclear weapons one should first get rid of the people intent to use them, and these people are, as it turned out, the same Americans playing God who used them in the first place. And there is little chance to do it if they won’t be convinced that they won’t live to see their ‘victory’, let alone to enjoy it.
it’s pretty clear the banking mafia are at least considering taking out both Russia and the USA as part of their move to China.
It’s pretty clear you haven’t been taking your thioridizine.
Thanks for the fluff…
Micheal Kofman’s background is this…
We note here that Kofman does not hold any kind of hard science degree whatsoever…either physics, math or engineering…
Ie he is a layman when it comes to technical matters…
For those interested in an actual science discussion…I suggest a quick look at my comments here…
http://www.unz.com/tsaker/newly-revealed-russian-weapons-systems-political-implications/#comment-2236917
http://www.unz.com/article/the-implications-of-russias-new-weapons/#comment-2231362
http://www.unz.com/article/the-implications-of-russias-new-weapons/#comment-2231669
http://www.unz.com/article/the-implications-of-russias-new-weapons/#comment-2234349