Time for this year’s update, now that 2019 preliminary stats are out. I am not going to write much for this one, since there’s nothing new or interesting. For the most part, updating the graphs should suffice.
For extended commentary, you’d be better off reading the last one.
None of the main trends have changed:
- Plummeting fertility since the mid-2010s (in line with global trends).
- Rapidly increasing life expectancy.
- Rapidly falling mortality from external causes.
Absolute numbers of births are back at the levels of 2005, though this is from a significantly smaller cohort of women in their childbearing age.
TFR for this year hasn’t been released, but will be 1.48-1.49 according to my estimates, corresponding to the levels of 2008. I don’t expect a turnaround this year, since trends are still negative, but the rate of decline is slowing.
I don’t expect Russia’s TFR to remain in the 1.4-1.5 range beyond the early 2020s since I view the current shift as being significantly driven by birth postponement.
There’s no official estimate for life expectancy in 2019. However, with a figure of 73.4 years being cited on Russian TV based on the first 11 months of this year, it might as well be the final figure.
Rates of death from “external cases” continue to decline rapidly: Suicides fell by 6.5%, murders by 7.5%, deaths from car accidents by 7.9%. In particular, the homicide rate was 4.9/100,000 by 2019. It is the lowest number to date since the early 1960s. The US rate was 5.0 in 2018, so for all purposes the inflection point is nigh.
Infant mortality reached 4.9/1,000, which is considerably worse than the OECD average, but not a wild outlier (and better than the US). It was at 20/1,000 during the late Soviet period.
After at least a century in the lead, Russia has overtaken the Ukraine in life expectancy, despite Russians generally drinking more. Ukrainian life expectancy actually fell a bit from 2017 to 2018, though this year it would have recovered back to 72 years or slightly more.
Still, whereas there are currently 20% as much deaths as births in Russia, in Ukraine there are nearly twice as many deaths as there are births. The rate of natural increase of -272,297 is similar to Russia’s -316,160 despite Ukraine’s almost four times smaller population.
Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.
If you are new to my work, start here.
The echo of the catastrophic Yeltsin’s year is hitting hard the TFR. It will be by at least 5 more years.
What about for the West?
Do you think that Ukrainians have a higher genetic life expectancy ceiling than Russians have, Anatoly?
What about for western Ukraine separately? After all, that is the core of Ukraine; as long as the core will remain relatively strong, the rest of Ukraine can eventually regenerate.
Galicia is the Ukrainian Piedmont-Sardinia; just like Piedmont-Sardinia in Italy in the days when Italy still had a monarchy, Galicia is the master of Ukraine.
still skeptical of the breeder population coming to predominate to the degree that european peoples don’t basically vanish, although it’s possible hypothetically. long term something else would probably happen before europeans naturally vanish with their 1.4 TFR and interracial mating. cloning, lab humans, robots take over, AI. long before any huge, society wide breeder population effect comes into play.
to me it sounds like arguments in the US that conservative europeans will come to outnumber leftist europeans by a lot, since they have more kids. well, that sort of happens, but the numbers aren’t big enough to change the direction of things, plus, the left has captured the entire education system from bottom to top, meaning that lots of conservative’s children get converted into leftists.
almost like homos making more homos or something. which i’ve heard them talk about too.
don’t see mormons or the amish or other religious nuts becoming any kind of factor even with a population doubling every 25 years. they’ll just be gristle from the coming America 2.0 government to grind. orthodox jews, though, will be a big problem for Israel in the coming decades, since they do nothing, consume resources, and multiply rapidly. Israel is approaching a parasite population reckoning.
Other races TFR going low is really the only thing that will save the white race from extinction. The magic breeder theory is just cope – and if/when the Amish/Mormons become a threat to the Globalist Powers that Be, they will be crushed like ants.
Whites are stuck between 1.4-1.6 everywhere. However, East Asians have a much lower fertility basement, it’s below/around 1 in Taiwan/SK/HK/Japan. India and Bangladesh TFR is already at replacement despite massive poverty in those countries. Their birth rates might drop to the lowest in history as their wealth grows. Thailand is only 1.32 now. Iran is below replacement. Only Africa and backwards Middle Easterners are staying high. If we die out due to them we deserve it.
Any of the above immigrant groups, upon moving to Canada/USA have almost no interest in having kids (Europe seems different).
Unfortunately our fate depends on other races failing to reproduce. Race mixing will continue – mainly due to white men mixing with Asians. The coal burner married woman is a meme – white women fuck white and black chads until they settle down with a white beta.
So let’s pray that the other birth rates keep dropping like a stone. Ours will not rise above 1.6 again, in the current paradigm.
As has been pointed out many times before, what is needed is simply pro-fertility policies that actually work. Or better put, policies that pointedly and very generously benefit families with three children or more. I remain fond of the idea that every child above two qualifies every family member for tax reliefs. I’ll leave the details to policy wonks, but this seems to me an obvious step toward raising birth rates.
Agreed. This would benefit Russia substantially more than it would the West, given that Russia is primarily Russian, and the largest out-group minorities (meaning those other than Germans, Ukrainians, Belarussians, and Volga Tatars) are Siberian peoples and Caucasians, who are native to the country, rather than being immigrants, as in the West.
It is bad but not catastrophic like in the east. IIRC it’s comparable to that of ethnic Hungary. Except Western Ukriane has far fewer gypsies.
About Western Ukriane – the 90s drop was less extreme there than in the rest of the country (or in Russia), so to an extent the birth rate is not as bad as the TFR because there are more women of childbearing age in the population.
Here was Ukraine’s TFR in 2000:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b9/Fertilityrate2000.png
In comparison Russia’s overall TFR in 2000 was 1.195 (so for ethnic Russians it was probably around 1.1, perhaps a little lower).
Of course, one needs population growth in order to expand ethnic territory and settle areas. Russians wouldn’t be able to settle or colonize Ukraine, or western Ukrainans settle/colonize eastern Ukraine, as both populations are declining.
I don’t foresee either Southern or Eastern Ukraine becoming large heavy industry centers anytime soon. Their future lies in becoming large agricultural centers utilizing modern farming technologies, still being attached to their black earth resources. These sorts of technologies don’t require a super large population. New factories in these areas should concentrates on marketing and production of modern day convenience foods (refrigerated warehouses are what’s needed here).
Hey Anatoly, I see that you’ve come across a new nutritious dish designed to fuel the growing populations of the world within your twitter account, “coffee coated steak.” Do tell us more, how does it taste, how did you come across this new delicacy and most importantly, how does one prepare it?
AK: There’s an open thread for this.
Not sure I follow. The idea, of course, is that well-to-do households should be more encouraged to have children than poor households (that’s why the carrot is tax reliefs rather than benefits). That would mean more ethnic Russians than non-ethnic Russians (who on the whole are poorer) having kids, yes, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that effect were even stronger in Europe (ethnic Europeans, I’m pretty sure, are far richer vis-à-vis non-ethnic Europeans than ethnic Russians are non-ethnic Russians).
Almost no one cares about white/East Asian mixing, even most ethnic nationalists struggle to get angry about it. White/East Asian hybrids tend to be of at least average IQ and almost as well adjusted to white society as whites are. Very few people see that sort of mixing as a social problem.
The sort of mixing people do care about, such as white/black is almost exclusively down to white women.
A nation of elliot rodgers, the wignat dream
Get out of your basement bro
Remove all lump sums awarded for childbirth. Those favour low income proles and certain minorities here.
Introduce an option of a favourable, long-term loan to young couples (25-30k EUR – don’t laugh please, Serbia is that shitty that this money would be a huge deal) which is repaid slowly, a small monthly fee.
For each child born, deduct appropriate amount, until 4/5 children erases the debt completely.
Introduce progressive income tax deductions for parents, followed by social security and healthcare payment deductions until 4/5 children are born, at which point no taxes are paid by parents.
Bonus – state assistance in purchase of larger cars/vans and flats/houses for bigger families.
This would benefit high-income, highly educated and successful parents (therefore bigger tax, security payers) to a higher degree, remove the dreadful system where Gypsies get the same money for childbirth as large societal contributors, help solve dysgenic trends of higher echelons of society having worst fertility and improve fertility overall.
Those who ask – where will the money come from? Think of this as an investment in the future – all those extra children born will be there to take the burden of taxes, pensions and healthcare in the future.
Besides – large, affluent families will spend all their money on lifestyle and upbringing, taxes will still be paid,
the money won’t be deposited.
Now to get me into the ArchManager/GrandManager/Manager Militant seat in Serbia…
Karlin and others continue to insist on the failed policy of monetary incentives to parents. Positive reinforcement doesn’t work. There is not ONE country that was able to overcome below replacement fertility rate with gibs that, simply put, doesn’t cover the costs of raising children. These programs are commonplace in the European Union, with varying implementations, without success. It’s still cheaper, or less costly, to be child-free. It’s also less stressful.
I used to think a lot about fertility, what is causing the collapse, and here’s my two cents.
I considered Jewish cultural influence, mainly modern liberalism, which takes culture from Trotsky and the Frankfurt School and economics from the Anglo tradition, also considered modern gadgets (vidya, smartphones, internet), feminism, but you can take any of these, or combine them, and you’ll see that attempting to universally apply them across the globe, in places where the fertility is below replacement, will hit too many contradictions.
Until I found a pattern.
My conclusion is that lower fertility is not determined by culture, but by the school->university->career->family pipeline. You have to enact laws to disrupt this pipeline, else all attempts, including very modest monetary incentives to parents and what not, will fail to reverse the trend.
Children are a burden, hence, an inconvenience, to material progression, and the will to comfort trumps ideology or ‘expectations’. People will balance material progression and a worry-free lifestyle with the conscientious desire to have children, and in the end the former wins out in numbers large enough to collapse the fertility rate.
In the pre-industrial, pre-urban age, having extra hands to work the fields and take care of you when you’re old meant good investment, not a burden.
Intrusive solutions, with each helping to varying degrees, are: ban abortion completely, ban the pill, ban the condom, ban women from the workplace. Only banning women from the workplace would help comprehensively, but this is undoable.
The less intrusive solution which must apply regardless of sex is to prohibit university to the childless, or block them from pursuing certain job prospects, and having children will be no different than the exceptation most young people have that university is ‘mandatory’ if you want a decent job and material progression (what we call ‘career’). I can almost hear the counter-argument that it’s nonsensical to force people to have children to get higher education or work a certain job, but today higher education is so passé that a majority of grads will ultimately pursue unrelated careers, and where I live you must have an university diploma for an awful number of jobs, relation between your education and new job be damned. It’s pure credentialism, and replacing it with children is the way forward.
The government willing to enact such laws, making childlessness a burden rather than a boon to material progression, will solve the problem overnight.
HAPAs are fucked up, some of the most anti-white, insecure people. Yes, this includes seemingly well adjusted HAPAs. They are almost all fucked up underneath.
Plus, I love my own tribe. Not a freaky hybrid tribe. Asian women are tempting, I can’t blame a white guy for marrying one. But long term it’s a horrible idea.
Open Thread, Anatoly??
Besides, my comment seems to acknowledge the theme of this thread:
🙂
This idea was executed before amd I believe a fairly common thing in the Roman era, but ut also failed to comprehensively raise fertility though it created interesting fictive kin patterns through adoption of sucessors as heirs.
The vast majority of mass shooters in America are white or black males, Elliot is the sole singular Hapa mass murder with more than 3 victims. Besides, Elliot would be posting on this website if he were alive today. I.e., alongside incels such as yourself.
You’re bullshitting. Multiple scientific studies show that half-Asian children have better mental health than monoracial white and Asian children.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13557858.2017.1346175
The actual “fucked up kids” are rural white, urban black and 3rd generation Hispanic youth. It’s hard for Hapas to be fucked up when they come from the elite strata of society and are universally viewed as more attractive (at least the females are).
Much simpler – reduce or eliminate taxes for people with more children. That way only those who pay taxes benefit, and those who pay more taxes (i.e. smarter, more hardworking) benefit more. This can work for income taxes, sales taxes on cars, etc.
Perhaps simpler to remove pensions for childless people; 50% for one child and the next 50% fo the second.
It would also reduce the negative fiscal effects of an uneven dependency ratio.
The issue is, it would be hard to carry out politically in any country which already has an even just rudimentary retirement system and would likely have to be instituted at a point when the country is already broken.
Banning abortion, the pill, and condoms will ensure that the dumbest, least consciousness people reproduce the most. This is not what we need.
I agree with this, particularly if it’s structured in an anti-progressive way in countries that have progressive taxation. If you make more income you pay more in taxes, but you get bigger tax breaks for children the more income you make.
The only downside of this is that many competent young people do not make high incomes. That often takes years to occur because of seniority benefits. So there would need to be other policies to account for this. Otherwise it would be incentivizing people to delay births. Lack of affordable family formation is a problem for young people.
The incentives would also have to apply only to people who have children, rather than adoptions. This would not be popular.
Saudi Arabia has a fertility rate of 2. Generally, when an Arab country goes rich it leads to a lot of leisured “housewives” in designer clothes under their hijab (with servants to do all actual housework), but not a lot of children. Japanese women in the 20th century were customarily fired from their jobs after marriage, but TFR kept falling and falling regardless. And middle-class French women had few children long before they even thought of going to work. Emile Zola’s novel Fecundity is a big rant against the small families of his era, which shows they were perfectly compatible with the provider-homemaker model. A relevant bit:
I recently travelled through several areas that were above replacement fertility in South Asia and I was stunned by how common 1 child families have become, talking to people in their 40’s that won’t have any more kids the prevalence of 1 child families has risen a lot, and this includes people who own several hotels, are rich etc, choosing only to have 1 child. Among poorer families there seems to have been a transition to 2-3 children from 4-5 which was the norm in the previous generation.
I went and talked to a lot of very poor people, rickshaw drivers, bricklayers etc and they all had no more than 3, big families have vanished completely it seems in India. Even among very poor people who formerly had big families, most now have only have 2.
It’s a shame Gumilyov’s writings haven’t been translated to English. He has a lot of kooky ideas, but the language and framework for explaining how nations are born and how they die is spot on.
TLDR – the “magic breeder theory” is broadly correct, but it won’t happen before some large-scale collapse and degeneration.
Someone has to clean the streets and drive the taxis, and if it isn’t dumb Russian Mujiks it will be dumber Asian Tajiks
Russians lost like, what, 10 million children to abortion in the last 15 years? That’s a huge number when you consider it, especially when most cite “economic” as the reason for it
I’m all for abortions if there are serious problems with the fetus or in case of rape but these are usually in the vast minority of reasons cited (sometimes as low as 1%)
If it won’t be banned then at least discourage it, make it a taboo thing again, something that is the last resort not the first thing that comes to mind
Seems unlikely to happen any time soon the way things currently are, but this problem is all about long term thinking
The TFR is unaffected by this, as it measures the number of children per woman.
Saudi Arabia is simply not rich enough. If you look at the smaller and richer Gulf emirates, they have a lot more children. Nationals in Kuwait, UAE etc. have more than 3 on average.
Yes, India/Bangladesh have reduced their TFR, but unfortunately the booming economies still cannot cope with all young adults entering the labour-market.
You see, even SE-Asia barely scraps enough jobs together to bring all those young people into the formal economy.
Without abortion, the East-/SE-Asian economic transformation would not have been possible.
Without abortion, the underclass in Western countries would have grown tremendously over the last 5 decades.
Many economies in Africa have 678% growth rates in the last 3 decades, but they don’t have family-planning programs and abortion like SE-Asia. That’s why prosperity does not arrive in the rural areas/provincial towns and that’s why those nations are getting “prole-ish” before getting rich.
It’s cynical, but it’s needed. Especially the Arabs/Pakistanis/SS-Africans need it and should do it.
The more women in leadership positions in a country, the more left wing/liberal that country will be. The increase in the promotion of feminism, gays, trannies, open borders, anti-white policies, etc, corolates closely with the increase of women politicians and business leaders.
I’m not saying all women support these things (although they do at a higher rate than men), but the “independent womyn” who go into leadership roles generally do. This is an often ignored factor in my opinion, most people seem to think that the gender ratio of politics and business is irrelevant when that’s quite a naive and idealistic way of thinking in my opinion.
As far as I can tell, after reading very widely and deeply on the matter, financial incentives for bearing children do not work. That is not say they will not work in the future; but thus far, the evidence is flimsy to non-existent. I have come to the conclusion that the commanding heights of the information economy (TV, newspapers, radio, advertising, academia, Internet etc) have to be controlled by pro-family groups of people. Currently, almost every single message a young person hears is ultimately anti-family often transmitted sexual minorities and their allies in the leadership positions of these organisations. Perhaps financial incentives will work but in conjunction with a usurpation of the personnel that run these organisations. How will this be achieved in liberal democracies? Almost impossible. In the absence of a military coup, there has to be a long march through the institutions in a Gramscian style but I strongly doubt there are enough capable people to implement this strategy long-term.
You’re absolutely right.
The best and quickest way to raise the GDP is to kill millions of useless and/or stupid people.
More stuff to go around, less freeloaders.
What’s not to love?
The Black monolith keeps growing and will inherit the earth.
People are very strongly influenced by the media and institutions, change the messaging.
Blacks are also the only race that seem to prefer mixing with other races to their own. Most races prefer to stay separate and only mix with their own, but blacks seem to actively seek intermixing with other races. A lot of blacks are absolute racists, I think they like the idea of the black race eventually subsuming all the others races.
But how is that achieved? To change the message you need to change the people creating and delivering the message. Currently in European and European offshoot societies, the people that control the commanding heights of the information economy detest families because they know that healthy and fertile families will send them back to the periphery of society i.e. underground bars. The allies of this group are often just nihilistic businessmen where the only thing that counts are profits and shareholder value. If an anti-family ideology sells, then they will simply support it.
As KGB officer, Yuri Bezemov you will need at least another generation, 15-20 years to rid these institutions of the anti-family eunuchs that dominate the commanding heights of the information economy. I think he was being overly optimistic.
From personal experience talking to people it comes down to economy. Everyone who is doing remotely well is having kids. Everyone who is struggling is not having kids. People don’t say that when you ask them but you can see. Young couples with no house and student loans adopt puppies and “some day” the children.
People who have no partner and money to their name the “strong independent women” don’t want children. I wonder how their outlook would change if they had a husband who made enough money for both of them.
This is going on throughout every Western country and I do ultimately consider Russia to be part of the west…
Yet I am constantly seeing U-tube videos of white squatter camps in South Africa with little white kids running all over the place. I guess they are too young to realize the mortal danger they are in and think they are in a permanent summer camp with few rules. They just appear to run around playing games all day. They aren’t even on a farm so there are no chores to keep them busy.
Human nature is weird. Why would people in the safest most prosperous places in the world have no kids; while people facing genocide are having kids running all over the place.
Sigh…
Race seems to be as much about culture as genetics. For example, I suspect Central Asians would be considered white if they were Christian, but because they’re Muslim they’re considered non-white. In contrast, Georgians and Armenians are usually considered white, because they’re Christian, while Turks are considered non-white because they’re Muslim.
Yeah, the USA would be over double (26%) black if abortion had not been legalized.
As much as I have moral problems with abortion, it is actually pretty useful in some cases.
However it’s also had bad consequences, for instance in California where 40% of pregnancies were aborted from the 1970s into the 1990s. Millions of white people dead. Same thing in Canada, until the mid 2000s I doubt abortion was used by anybody other than whites, simply due to lifestyle choices.
Female childfree and MGTOW seem to be two sides of the same coin. People who are unsatisfied with their relationships with the opposite sex deciding that they “never wanted to be with a woman/man anyways”.
I have noticed a trend among early 20s women, where they say they don’t want kids, and would prefer dogs or adoption – even if they’re well off. All races, btw. Let’s see how this plays out.
I would include most career women and women in leadership positions generally in this because they know full well if society expected them to be homemakers they wouldn’t be in the positions they are today, which makes them very inclined to be feminist, pro-LGBT, pro-mass immigration, etc.
The decline of Western society and the promotion of leftist agendas correlates closely with the increase of women in politics and leadership positions, but it’s considered practically taboo to say that even on the right. We have to just pretend that gender makes no difference and that all our issues are cultural and apply equally to both men and women.
Don’t mean for it to be universal standard for Africans or whoever else, talking specifically about Eastern Europe and Balkans
Take your meds
In CEE, SEE and EE it is mostly a matter of resources/money – tax incentives and subsidies would work, with the exception of libscum residing in metropoles and LARPing, cargoculting West.
In the West… societal and brain rot among indigenous people has progressed too far.
Them being the source of Globohomo, Woke culture, emancipation, feminism, empowerement – well, it draws a big smile to my face.
Africans, Mestizos, Muslims, Subcontinentals and East Asians do not frighten me. They have clear goals, explicit agenda and predictable, self-serving behaviour.
Anglos, Germanics/Protestants and Reformist Jews, on the other hand, are deeply unnerving to me. Unsalvageable.
Southern European Catholics are not much better, they’re somewhat more in tune with their traditional culture but those countries are also infested with LGBT, mass immigration, etc, all the same. They just expect the immigrants to integrate to their traditional culture more than Anglos/Germanics do but they’re not really anti-mass immigration. In the long run their attitude towards assimilation is likely to only result in more race mixing.
Spain was one of the first European countries to legalise gay marriage and is known the world over as a premier gay destination, it is also full of non-white immigrants and socialist politics. The Spanish maintain a veneer of tradition and cultural Catholicism but it makes no difference in practice.
Spain has been systematically undermined by certain powers for centuries.
It wasn’t for nothing that Franco actively persecuted Freemasons yet left Jews alone.
What you are describing in Spain is a result of anti-Franco and anti-Church backlash in the aftermath of democratization and liberalization.
It is an incredible transformation – pre-Habsburg and Habsburg Spain was the actual bulwark against Muslims and Ottomans, leading all coalitions and stopping them in the Mediterranean, practically all of Spain’s 16th and 17th century leading writers and philosophers were Tercio veterans, Catholic Church and Military thoroughly dominated the society. 19th and 20th century were very hard on Spain, ultimately Liberalism won.
What you are describing for SE Catholics is the result of West/NATO domination. The Roman Catholic Church domination ended long time ago in Portugal, Spain and Italy.
It also extends to Greeks, who are currently US/Globalist leading tool in Ecumenism and anti-Russian Orthodoxy positioning. Scheming with Jesuit Pope, pushing Ecumenical Patriarch as Orthodox quasi-Pope.
Basically – wherever Protestantism and Liberalism took hold, bad things occured.
Yes, Liberalism is ultimately a disastrous ideology. All the ills that befell the Western societies today are direct ideological descendants of Liberalism.
The West (TM) has to die.
Yea we’ve always had crazy ideas. Sometimes it works (worked?) out – the industrial revolution, the declaration of independance, the Quakers, democracy.
More often it leads to destruction – puritans, hitler, abolitionists, feminists, and now the cult of diversity.
We have inflexible minds that get too caught up in whatever our current idea is.
You say Spain and Southern Europe is the way it is because of Anglo/Germanic domination, yet Spain and other Latin nations like Brazil, etc, are even more “woke” and liberal on many issues than Britain and the Anglosphere is. If the Anglo/Germanic world is the origin of these leftist agendas then why does the Latin world take it even further than they do?
Spanish/Latin culture is widely associated with miscegenation, LGBT types, socialism, etc. Liberals love Latin culture precisely for that reason, it is seen as hedonistic, left wing and somewhat degenerate.
Only nationalists that believe IQ scores are the be all and end all are fine with East Asian race mixing. They fail to realise mixing with East Asians will dilute the creative power more common amongst White ethnic groups.
In the end, you will just have a group of people who score higher on SATs.
White men usually go for East Asian women after they have expended their options with White woman. East Asian women are submissive and I have also heard their skin wrinkles less in old age.
Given a smart and attractive White woman and a smart and attracting East Asian woman, a White Man would always choose the former, only this with some sort of mental illness would choose the Asian.
Only people like Jared Taylor and John Derbyshire tolerate/shill for such things. Jared Taylor has even tried to rationalise White Americans being replaced by Easy Asians.
Karlin has, if I remember correctly, predicted a massive TFR collapse in South Asian in the near future.
Once also has to wonder whether the sudden availability of cheap mobile data will lead to a lower birth rate, India has the cheapest data in the world, which is why T-series managed to beat PewDiePie. 1GB of data is a mere $0.20 there.
Also, leftists in Britain regard native English culture, especially that of the working classes, as the most conservative and bigoted in the world, inferior to the much more liberal and enlightened cultures of continental Europe, they see English culture as among the most parochial and backward in the world, not at all “woke”.
The reason most British leftists support even Polish mass immigration into Britain is because they believe that even the Polish will make Britain more liberal and more “woke”, and that anyone replacing right wing, backward native English culture is a great thing. These people see Brexit supporting British conservatives as the epitome of far-right, fascist, racist bigots. They see them as extremely right wing people.
Total fertility rate should not be affected, as it tries to predict number of children per woman in their fertile years.
There is a collapse in number of births during the 1990s, but not in cohort fertility rates.
Eventual fertility rates seem quite insensitive to economic conditions, but rather the timing of births was sensitive to continued bad economic conditions by the early 1990s. With 2011 data, eventual fertility rate had seemed quite stable, or with declines of not more than 0,2 children per woman across the worst crisis years
https://i.imgur.com/AjfZKxw.jpg
The Puritans would have to rank as one of history’s most fecund and productive groups in history.
Which society was more “woke” and progressive 50 years ago – Spanish, American or British?
How about 150 years ago?
You are conflating hedonism and (lack of) work habits with modern degeneracy, relativism, celebration of vices and hypermaterialism.
It was sarcasm, you silly autist.
And in any case, if we’re now making the “mass murder of people helps raise GDP” argument, then killing unborn babies makes no sense. You should be killing old people past a certain age (forced euthanasia) instead, much more profitable from any angle.
I went over the numbers in Quebec once when I tried to do a deep dive – actually interviewed individuals from the era, etc. Long story short, unless you’re also going to isolate your society in a North Korean model, cultural transmission will also amend your tfr model and your ability to maintain structures will be impeded by desertion. There are exceptions, almost always religious in nature, which replace the normal status ladder complete and in their cultist nature, reform a North Korean model socially, but its not exactly a widespread and easy solution(or possibly compatible with various other aspects of societal competitiveness).
Modern problems ultimately require modern solutions: the artificial womb awaits.
Beyond that, solutions really need to involve consensus making and opinion formation, all now fortunately within reach.
The English were traditionally considered very conservative, right wing people. Even today leftists tend to regard the English working classes as the most conservative and bigoted people in Europe.
Traditional English culture is not thought of as “woke” at all, in fact it’s the opposite of “woke”. Leftists in Britain see continental Europe as being left wing and progressive, and working class English Brexiteers as being right wing and racist and basically literal fascists. England is also the only country in Europe with no viable socialist/Labour movement.
Based Serbs – ahead of Western abortion and euthanasia GDP boosting strategy – Lapot
The Puritans are a strong argument for the strength of religious fanaticism as an uniting factor against common woes. In an odd way, they are among the most leftist yet rightish of societies, though as in many such totalitarian societies, it had less to do with principle than whim(of the church parsons, in this case).
It is one of my beliefs that it sometimes matters less of the reality of an animating belief that drives a society than so as long as there are enough people that believe it, and thus cooperate under it.
Breeding with Africans is uniquely dangerous for other peoples, more than any other interracial mixing by far. This amply demonstrated fact presumably accounts for many people abhorring mixture with Africans but not feeling the same, or to the same degree, about mixing with other races.
Anything that eliminates or prevents the birth of more Africans will make the host population safer.
In the european, russian, and Asian contexts, abortion or any other amelioration of the number of Africans spewing will tend to increase (and avoid decreasing) average intelligence. It will also reduce violent crime, intimidation and filth in public schools and other public spaces, long-term welfare abuse, and so many other social ills. This is true whatever the degree of capitalism, socialism, or welfare state the country has.
I am not concerned with whether this insults or offends anyone — especially given that I have been attacked and permanently injured by an African-“american” here in “sunny Los Angeles”, my high school acquaintance was raped by another, and my grandmother was mugged / injured / terrified and threatened with death by a heavily African man who appeared to be Puerto Rican (NY City). Must be that White privilege we hear so much about.
I favor my own life, health, and ability to not feel constantly threatened, and the lives and safety of my wife and children, more than the feelings of Africans or the dipshits who defend them. I’m funny that way.
Nobody except Africans has ever done these terrible things to me and mine.
No need for crazy talk like killing. Better to require or incentivize characteristically more violent, less intelligent populations like Africans to voluntarily sterilize themselves or leave the country.
LOL! Just passing through = jilted white woman.
For all races of men, Asian women are first pick, Latinas second, white women third. However, few studies incorporate biracial women. If they did, white women would be fourth choice. A truly pitiful state of affairs for white women since they’re the lartest demographic of females in America.
https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2013/11/27/ethnic-preferences2_custom-2bcc84fb38b5ab6f7b614f933449fe2421d0eefd-s800-c85.png
https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20180818_FBC544.png
Asian female features just look better than white female features.
All races in the world agree with you about Africans- except the majority of whites.
Sometimes i wish for China or japan to take us over. Sure we might be second class citizens but we’d be able to walk the streets without fear of Africans attacking, that’s for sure.
You mean the country which has been Americas bitch for over 100 fucking years
Utterly false.
White women hurt themselves with a their woke bullshit. No doubt a white woman who is not an “in your face” feminist is the highest of the all.
Why should a middle status white man marry a white feminist whore when he could have a quiet, submissive, normal latina or asian?
Keep in mind I blame white fathers for this. Most don’t teach their daughters how to behave. In fact many are on board with this girl power thing.
If I didnt care about race I would be running to the nearest asian or latina I can find now. Unfortunately I’m more selective so I’m looking for a proper white woman.
You’re responding to a troll who is posting unrepresentative online dating market data.
Why do you keep posting this nonsense cope?
White women are the least likely to be “woke” among females. “Wokeness” is a black, Asian and Hispanic thing. The very thought of a white woman using this kind of urban street vernacular to describe herself is hysterical.
And yet, White men go for these woke Asian and Latina women. Look, a study from the early 2000s (before wokeness) indicating no preference for white women among white men:
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1068/p5191
The prototypical European female face is just objectively less attractive, refined, and goodlooking than the prototypical Asian female face. White women can be as “submissive” and “quiet” as you want and men of all races are still going to do what natural selection tells them to do: go for the Asian or nonwhite Latina female.
I think he also identified as square jaw as being more feminine than the typical pointed chin, which was pretty hilarious and a discovery to every beginning artist. He’s profoundly not worth responding to.
In that, you would be incorrect. I’ve married to a more traditional white girl, but even so, the formation of the traditional character was much more than paternal influence but an overall societal thing, one which is in some ways is genuinely difficult – even unhealthy – for modern society.
If anything, it is usually more maternally influenced as girls would naturally take their cues from other, older women around them but most of all, is an extended family as a kind of average of older women around them as archetypes of appropriate behavior.
But the essential steps within it are wrecked. Families don’t really match-make anymore, nor is matchmaking seen as particularly romantic. Behaving in what was taught to her as a historic norm led her into some fairly negative situations. And on top of it, such behavior is now cast as fairly low status and any girl who says that she wants to be a housewife will face peer condemnation(the most important thing for anyone of that age).
Things worked out for her in the end, but could have very easily not have. The issues are much more fundamental to modern society than simply fatherly leadership.
Daniel Chieh, what’s your problem with me, bro? You won’t stop climbing on my nuts, though you seldom respond to me directly.
I don’t recall ever having that discussion. Are you referring to Erik Holland, owner of https://www.femininebeauty.info and the older “squarejawfeminine” website? He has been a commenter on this website long before me, and he has advocated that theory that square jaws are more feminine.
For what it’s worth, I actually do believe squarer jaws without a sharply pronounced chin are more feminine and attractive, as multiple studies have passively indicated that this is the case.
The composite on the left is of women who were measured to have higher levels of female sex hormones such as estradiol, and who were rated more attractive by independent raters, and the composite on the right is of women with lower levels of female sex hormones, who were rated less attractive.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1560017/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1560017/bin/rspb20053296f01.jpg
I also can’t help but notice the left composite is closer to a prototypically “East Asian” face than the one on the right. It also has a much less pointy chin. I mean, traditionally the male chin is supposed to be more prominent than the female chin. Thst involves a masculine pointiness.
The absolute worse for me is when a woman’s jaw and chin are so narrow that it makes her neck look like a thick, bull neck.
Anyway, I am not Erik Holland and do not recall ever arguing about the pointyness of chins. If I ever did it must have been in passing and not something I have regularly talked about on this forum. I think I might have argued with Sean about it. I do find itninteresting that Daniel Chieh remembers more about my post history than I do…
I make note of nutcases but rarely bother to waste my time with them. Thanks for proving the case on your insanity. In this case, it was a passive observation rather than any specific post history about you, but I turned out perfectly correct as usual.
Incidentally, those who know me(and there are a couple here who talk to me daily here) are aware that I’m an artist and thus quite familiar with conceptions of beauty.
Obviously not, if she ended up married to you.
You are correct. However, I would qualify that and say a certain type of women is allied with anti-family forces. Many other women relish the idea of motherhood. And let us not forget their key role in the management of the household.
This section from Xenophon’s Oeconomicus (Oikonomikos) is instructive:
“It seems to me that God adapted women’s nature to indoor and man’s to outdoor work…. As Nature has entrusted woman with guarding the household supplies, and a timid nature is no disadvantage in such a job, it has endowed women with more fear than man. It is more proper for a woman to stay in the house than out of doors and less so for a man to be indoors instead of out…. You must stay indoors and send out the servants whose work is outside and supervise those who work indoors, receive what is brought in, give out what is to be spent, plan ahead for what is to be stored and ensure that provisions for a year are not used up in a month…. Many of your duties will give you pleasure for instance, if you teach spinning and weaving to a slave who did not know how to do this when you got her, you double your usefulness to yourself.”
People would have to try very hard to convince this is not relevant for modern society.
Actually, that’s a very specific allegation you made, that was based on a discussion I did have last year with a commenter here calling himself “sean”, under an old account name nobody had previously associated with me before. So you’re not passively observing, but essentially “stalking” me in your head and remembering very specific details about what I’ve posted here. Pretty damning, since it does indicate a vivid interest in my opinions.
Artists create realities of their own — they don’t mimmick actual reality. Only someone like M.J Law Smith, D.I Perrett, […], and S.G Hillier can make these observations about perceived beauty. Few people associate a pointy chin with female attractiveness.
LOL, democracy is the most retarded idea of them all. It would be like soldiers electing their general based ona a televised popularity contest.
Ever wonder why the Chinese leadership are all technocrats with degrees in STEM while Western elites are all bankers and lawyers who have high verbal IQs? It is because the former selects for merit while the latter selects for who can make some sounds with their mouth and swindle the masses.
This is amazingly entertaining. Please continue – in an Open Thread.
What “Latino(a)” means? A Spaniard & American-aboriginal mestizo(a)? I would call them just “mestizos”.
Might need artificial nannies as well. I’ve seen many couples reduce their targeted number of babies after they experience their first. The disruption to their lifestyle (e.g. sleep) is shocking to our soft generation.
From whose perspective? Why is squirting out offspring per se a social positive?
Congratuations: you just proposed a recipe for Idiocracy.
The West has had policies that subsidise reproduction for 3 generations; it has had worsening median scores for key adult competencies (literacy and numeracy) for the last 30 years.
You’re asking the productive – households who pay the most net tax (the smart; the educated; the childless) – to subsidise the most reproductive… who by contrast consume the most tax-funded resources; pay the least net tax at all income levels. And on the whole they’re dumber: within societies, female fecundity varies negatively with IQ.
The productive in a modern Western economy – those who pay net tax – is restricted to about 15% of households. They are vastly under-represented in offspring-squirting, even in the face of subsidies – because they have a high opportunity cost of 9 months spent gestating: as evidenced by their groupwise TFR.
So even more than 85% of all offspring produced under a subsidy for offspring-squirting, will come from unproductive households – and the vast bulk of those will go on to be unproductive.
What you’re proposing is very, and specifically, dysgenic.
.
If you’re so indifferent to women’s liberty that you think that it’s correct to try to force a change in their reproductive preferences (based on their actual behaviour)… then why not just imprison them, put them in pens and forcibly impregnate them?
That is guaranteed to enable ‘breeder compulsives’ to hit their TFR targets, and has the benefit of being less costly to the net taxpayer.
Plus, if you did it to all of them, you would at least get some kids with first-quintile female DNA.
I don’t know about ‘woke’ but White women fit the unbearable lib shrew archetype most often.
Feminist, love to travel, yoga, my body my choice, watch me roar, love my marketing job, etc.
Check out these.
http://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4452021&mc=269&forum_id=2
Bullshit. Check the voting patterns:
https://pics.me.me/how-did-non-college-educated-women-vote-in-the-2016-elections-clinton-29673738.png
White women consistently vote disproportionately right wing as compared with non-white women of all races.
You think Asian and Latina women don’t do that? Asian and Latina feminism is stronger than white feminism, albeit different in form. They do all that shit and more.
The fact is, Asian and Latina women simply look better than white women do. That’s why they’re more popular.
“Yet I am constantly seeing U-tube videos of white squatter camps in South Africa with little white kids running all over the place.”
Are you viewing the same video again and again?
You’re asking the productive – households who pay the most net tax (the smart; the educated; the childless) – to subsidise the most reproductive…
It’s possible to have natalist policies that are tilted toward the most productive:
low-interest mortgages for young families. If they have three children, the mortgage is cancelled. In general, benefits should be focused on the third child.
fines, and return to prison, for male offenders who father children while on probation.
Ultimately, you have to change the culture, and that won’t happen overnight. You have to keep pushing the culture in a natalist direction, just as other people have been pushing it in the other direction. Conservatives are paying the price of not fighting the culture war for the past half-century.
Israel is a case in point. It’s possible to have a modern society with replacement fertility even among secular citizens.
My lovely wife is Asian, but I generally do NOT find Asian women more attractive than white women — just her. Just my two cents and one tiny data point.
I became converted to Elizabeth Warren years ago when Unread a piece of hers that stated what I had been thinking for a while. She attributed excessive housing costs (and thus the requirement for dual incomes, women entering the workforce – no fake feminist she and reduced childbearing) to the banks lending on both incomes of a couple. Essentially, women joined the workforce to pay more interest to the banking sector.
Yeah, you seem to be right there. Is it that white people don’t feel the same way or just are too indoctrinated / cowed to admit (even in private) what they really think?
“Objectively” less attractive?
You write like a butthurt hapa.
You’re not married to an Asian. I’ve read your post history before, and it’s very clear you’re not who you say you are.
In 2016 Saudis had a fertility rate of 2.53 and for 2019 it was 2.3.
In what alternate reality do you think a Hapa would write that?
I suspect that people on the right end of the political spectrum are congenitally socially maladapted. It’s some kind of attention deficit, where they’re unable process social information beyond a very shallow depth. And to compound that handicap, they suffer from extreme paranoia. This results in them hurling nouns like “Hapa”, “streetshitter” or “Jew” (I’ve been called all 3) at anything they struggled but failed to understand, like a moronic chihuahua that barks at its own shadow.
No idea why you think so. Email me your name and cell phone number and come visit us in Los Angeles. Will meet you in a public place, psycho.
Others here we “socially maladaptive”, yet it’s you who purports to “know” I’m not actually married to my wife. You really should come meet us and feel foolish. Where do you live, roughly? Are you married, great seer of the truth? And how would we verify any of that?
Who the heck knows you are, for that matter, as I don’t think you’ve provided as much personal material as I have here over the past few years of heavy reading and detailed commenting.
Well, judging from the assertions in your very brief comment history, you claim to be a “progressive” who disdains Christianity and perhaps all religion, has a kind word for jehovah’s witnesses, and plans to become a permanent resident of Zambia. Yeah, that’s a lot more plausible than me being some almost middle-aged white guy married to an Asian woman and living in California — an outlandish scenario, I know.
Okay…..
I checked your profile for an email address, but I couldn’t find one. Have you personally met any of the known Los Angelinos who comment on/run this site? You’re looking very suspect right now, btw…
I don’t go around online trying to validate the attractiveness of my peoples women or the masculinity of my race, which is very common for hapas online
And looking at your commenting history it’s clear you’re not White (demonstrated by your sheer seething animosity).
You can reach me at my email address if you’d like, it is [email protected]
I have done no such thing. Looks like we can add “learning disability” to your ever-expanding list of congenital defects.
There’s no seething animosity in my posts or indications of non-whiteness that you can quote anywhere. On the other hand, your comment history reveals a persistent anti-Asian, and specifically anti-Chinese bias, which can be easily copied and pasted here for all to read. Which means you are likely a butthurt loser, probably a stressed-out female, mad that Jewish men are running off with Chinese women in droves, leaving you priced out of your old neighborhood (the one you really wanted to live in) and forced to suck gentile cock for survival.
I am 100% white and British-American, btw. Pre-19th century immigration stock.
A lot of seething from a “100% White guy”
It’s also Anti-Chinese bias, not anti-Asian.
What about these out-of-context quotes makes you think the author isn’t 100% white, Rebecca? Many of these statements of mine reflect the majority opinion of this website’s audience, and were in agreement with previous commenters.
For instance, this statement:
Was in response to post #51 in this thread, authored by “Daniel I.”:
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/femnats/#comment-3701106
^ which was in turn a response to rahan’s post, the relevent content of which was quoted in italics above.
You seem to be under the mistaken impression that either a.) I am a nonwhite female or b.) this website, and the right wing in general, are somehow amicable to white females. Both tragically mistaken assumptions.
Move to Asia, have your mixed kids and stay there. Stop using this site to promote your race-mixing propaganda because most white men don’t agree with you. Asian women might have their charms but when it comes to a choice between a nice shapely young white woman and the equivalent asian woman, the average white man will pick his own kind. If what you’re saying is so true, every white American soldier who was fighting in Asia would’ve brought back Asian wives, but the vast majority married white women.
I provided 11 instances of you demonstrating your seething animosity, it’s quite clear they prove my point even if one was taken out of context. Don’t bother replying to this because you’re going into the commentors to ignore box, but, as I posted my email above, please feel free to email me if you want to verify your alleged Whiteness.
So cite a single peer-reviewed study that says that. You can’t do it. The very thought of it is preposterous. I already posted a ton of studies on this website suggesting otherwise.
The Unz Review is an alternative media site that encourages participation from all viewpoints, in the spirit of free speech. The comment section here is extremely conductive to that, much like the USA is. If you can’t compete with someone who has an opposing viewpoint, you need to sit back and accept that reality. You don’t control this website or the USA (and you never will).
Obviously, this is nonsense, but in WW2 American white men married more Asian war brides than they did Caucasian war brides. They had to change the law on interracial marriage just to accomodate them.
When you combine liberalism with capitalism, consumerism and urbanisation you’re pretty much doomed.
Sadly that’s probably true.
Agreed. The normalisation of the two-income family has certainly been a factor in driving fertility down.
It’s amazing how often when you find something really evil you find that bankers are the ones behind it.
Anyone who picked one of those simuladies over the other is engaging in a mental coin toss. They are both squarely in the “quite attractive” bit of the spectrum.
Women who look that good without face-goop are relatively rare, and are almost invariably brown-eyed.
If I was going to express a bias I would tilt very slightly towards the simulady on the right (as you face the screen) because she looks smarter, plus the more pronounced philtrum. The ‘Witchiepoo'[1] chin might be involved, but only subliminally and negatively (a girlfriend from the 1980s had a chin like Roger Ramjet, and she was a fucking psycho).
[1] Speaking of Witchiepoo… was it wrong that I had a ‘thing’ for her as a 9-year-old? Her crew was heaps more interesting than Pufnstuf’s – she had evil trees, spiders, mushrooms, a bat and skeleton guards.
Fuck that was a good show. I had forgotten about it until I thought of pointy chins, and now I can’t get the theme tune out of my head.
“Once upon a summertime, just a dream from yesterday” KEK
I suspect that the average white man doesn’t care very much either way. If he meets a woman and she’s attractive and has a pleasing personality he’ll probably marry her whether she’s white or East Asian.
Unfortunately the odds of finding a white woman who is both attractive and has a pleasing personality are not as good as they used to be.
At the time that lots of American soldiers were fighting in Asia there was a lot more social stigma attached to marrying a non-white woman, and white women were much more likely to be attractive and have pleasing personalities (rather than be tattooed harridans).
Bankers are not running Hollywood, Academia or the mass media. The same cannot however be said about jews, but carry on with your delusional class struggle nonsense, jews clearly have no influence on anything or anyone.
Hardly: the occupiers of Palestine have fertility dominated by box-headed retards who are almost entirely on welfare.
This is why a country of ~6 million has to get $3.8 billion a year in aid from Uncle Shmuel‘s taxpayers, and on top of that needs to steal the aid intended for the inmates of their Gaza concentration camp.
They are demographically doomed – on their present demographic trajectory, within a generation or two they will be a third world nation of gibbering idiots, indistinguishable from the Eastern European hovels in which their forebears originated. Seichel is a myth.
Any secular Jew with alternatives in the West is looking for the exits – just as any Jew with alternatives had no desire to head to Palestine after WWII.
This excludes those with a personal stake in political grift: kapo types stay right up until the camps are liberated and then pretend that they were never the willing, eager tools of the oppressor.
Greece better get ready for some more migrant waves, those Haredi Jews are going to need Lebensraum and they are all extreme-right Talmudic Zionists who will vote for the party that promises to invade and displace the peoples of neighbouring territory.
Wow, dating site statistics mean something, I thought dating sites were just places for people to engage in their ethnic fetishes…
We all know your background.
https://i.imgur.com/qAImgk6.png
https://i.imgur.com/uAiTh5B.jpg
I have to laugh when people say Eastern Europe is “based” and right wing. Truth is they’re much more likely to vote LEFT than the majority of English people are. England has no viable socialist/left movement, it’s as conservative as it gets anywhere in Europe. As for countries like France and Germany, they are practically COMMUNIST compared to England.
The reason the British left have flooded England with Eastern European immigrants is because they’re trying to make England more socialist and “progressive”, because even the Slavs are more left wing than the working class and middle class English. The native English people are the most right wing and based people in Europe especially the working and middle classes, that’s why the elites hate them more than any one.
‘Conservatives’ are just slow (in all senses of the word) progressives.
Always find it funny when white men post anti-white memes made by confirmed HAPAs to shame their own into not fucking asians.
fertility dominated by box-headed retards who are almost entirely on welfare.
Uh, it’s not just religious Jews on welfare. The fertility rate is well above replacement even among non-religious Jews in Israel.
https://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/2013/02/28/israel-demographic-miracle/
It’s possible to have an advanced society and above-replacement fertility. All it takes is will.
“Based” as an adjective, is a word or dialect of African American teenagers, which means to describe something as fashionable, cool or stylish.
I know because I am a fan of stuff like Nike sneakers, or things like Audio-Technica headphones, and sometimes watch a lot of unboxing videos on YouTube. I have the same connoisseurship as African American teenagers, although I would probably be a clown if I started saying my Nikes (or you have to call consumer products “badboys” – e.g. “let’s get these badboys out of the box”) are “based”.
People calling politics of different countries “based” in this forum is quite amusing, and I guess a lot of people here were trolled somehow.
Haredi Jews do not need much “Lebensraum”, relative to their numbers. They love small, condense, overpopulated, living space. This is probably because it is easier to watch people in a small space, and then to see who is disobeying the rules, and who is leaving the cult or potentially a rebel.
Probably the ideal design for them would be a panopticon, but designed in a way so they can all see what everyone else is doing. Streets in Haredi places are bit like this – as in such crowded areas, can see what hundreds of people are doing by looking out of a window.
Rate of fall of fertility in the Muslim countries, are falling a lot faster than in Europe.
As for the wealthy Muslim countries like UAE and Qatar.
In UAE, total fertility rate fell from 6,6 children per women in the 1970s, to 1,39 women per children in 2019.
Total fertility rate of Russian (Russian population in the Russian Federation) is about 1,39 women in 2019. So brown Muslim Arab fertility has now fallen to be the same as Russian in Russia (one of the Europe’s most secular countries).
https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-has-one-of-the-lowest-fertility-rates-in-the-world-study-finds-1.970502
How is this for our intuitive stereotypes?
There has been some myth about intrinsic Islamic boost for demographics… More likely it’s causal story, where Islam has historically had effect of reducing economic development. And reduction in economic development, resulted in generations of delay in demographic transition of Muslim countries relative to Europe. However, where there is high economic development, Muslim fertility rates are collapsing.
Seems pretty low. Are you sure that is the Arab rate? UAE has a very large population of migrant workers, most of whom are sex-segregated helot-class.
I was under the impression that the local Arab rate was above replacement.
LOL, English people are the least ‘based’ people in Europe, there are riots in Eastern Europe when so much as a gay flag is paraded around, in England meanwhile, nobody really cares about their country being flooded with foreigners.
Eastern Europe is far more based as they still have a healthy amount of anti-Semitism in their national discourse and it is within the Overton window to question Jewish power.
Sorry, I should have been clearer about what I mean by tax reliefs. I obviously mean tax reliefs on productive activities (e.g. lower payroll taxes).
The basic idea is that they should be directed at (1) the most productive households (often the most loath to have a third child), and (2) should apply at the household level (e.g. a working husband should get lower payroll taxes from his wife having a third child).
@cicerone
You are wrong. Formula is TFR = (Sum of ASFR x 5 ) / 1,000 and particular women pop from 90s who are now at fertile age took a huge dive in 90s and is leveraged by all other groups.
So yes, 90s matter in overall TFR
Most wealthier women in cities don’t even think about “settling down” until they’re in their mid 30s.
They’re averse to relationships; they try so hard to avoid “catching feelings” despite them always catching them anyways.
I rememeber telling one: you like me, we’re not seeing anybody else, and we go on dates. Why not just date? But they refuse to be “tied down”.
Maybe I’m just not alpha enough to date wahmin. Alpha enough to bed them but can’t make the next step.
Either way, I predict a fertility crash even further in the next decade in all developed countries.
Oh, yes, to be sure. It’s related, I think, to what Zero HP Lovecraft pointed out back in 2018:
Looking at every graph one can see when “democracy” hit Russia. Hit really hard. The recovery appears to be harder than after WWII.
Re: Confident civilizations vs. failed civilizations
Hey, check out Alicja Szemplińska who will represent Poland in May
at the Eurovision 2020 with the song Empires (check it out!). She spent
time in the United States studying under Seth Riggs, Michael Jackson’s
vocal coach. With her incredible deep voice and a personal charisma,
this Polish girl could play a Star Fleet commander in a Star Wars movie,
and she is only 17! I can’t help thinking that Alicja is an embodiment of a newly
confident Polish culture after Poland effectively ceased to exist for almost
200 years (1795-1989).
Contrast her with Billie Eilish, recent U.S. Grammy winner, who at 18 is
basically the same age. She wears baggy clothes so no one will criticize
her body. She doesn’t really sing, she whispers, as if she has no Life Force
to spare. Her songs depress the hell out of me. To me she, in contrast
to Alicja, is an embodiment of a civilization that has lost confidence
in itself (due to imperial blowback, and other factors). And that’s sad because
I remember when America was at the top of her game, when the American
experiment was still humanity’s greatest hope.
Gennady Golovkin – Russian father, Korean mother. For many years he was the best fighter in his weight divison and in top 3-5 pound-for-pound
https://img.bleacherreport.net/img/images/photos/002/135/254/hi-res-6952606_crop_north.jpg?h=533&w=800&q=70&crop_x=center&crop_y=top
Dmitry Bivol – Moldovan father, Korean mother, current boxing champ
https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960×0/https%3A%2F%2Fspecials-images.forbesimg.com%2Fdam%2Fimageserve%2F697077688%2F960x0.jpg%3Ffit%3Dscale
Kostya Tszyu – Korean father, Russian mother, held multiple light-welterweight world championships, including the undisputed and lineal titles between 2001 and 2005
https://rossboxing.com/images/kostyatszyu.jpg
Offspring of White father and Asian mother won’t face problems, in fact he will likely benefit from both sides due to the Heterosis or hybrid vigor. Strong, smart, successful. Hey, but some random guy on the internet posted degrading cartoon pic, so it must be true))) The caveat, in 2-3 generations it will go away. But who thinks 2-3 generations forward when Whites, Asian or Latino countries may no longer exist as we know them today.
Why don’t offsprings of Black and White spouse benefit from the hybrid vigor? They do, but you end up with less violent less dumb mulatto who will be less likely to end up in prison. Black nitwit with 70 IQ plus 100 IQ White woman doesn’t equal 85 IQ offspring, mixed child will likely have IQ around 90 due to hybrid vigor.
In a racist anti-White society like US or Canada they may even benefit and get ahead due to D.I.E.
I can’t exactly believe this, because we certainly don’t get a representative sample from media… but at least from a not representive sample of famous celebrities, the mixed races people can look more ambiguous and healthy in an attractive way, so I can see why they’re good for advertising. (Also I have seen a few beautiful girls in real life who had mixed nationality parents, so it’s not completely myth).
Alicia Keys? She’s not quite attractive because she is too masculine. But when she was young 20 years ago, she looked good in a bit criminal way.
Now at almost 40 years old and even more like a boy, but seems unusually young and healthy looking for a middle aged woman.
Below replacement fertility might not be a negative thing in countries like UAE and Qatar, as it’s similar to the situation of Singapore? In Singapore, they just allow more Chinese people to immigrate to offset the low fertility rate. This probably also contributes to the political stability of such states.
Poor Muslim countries with had the highest fertility rates (like Syria, Yemen and Egypt), were where there is most danger of revolution against the rulers.
–
Wealthy Muslim countries, also recently have a serious problems like obesity from fast food addiction, and obsession with automobiles and destroying their landscape and cities with horrible multilane highways.
They seem vulnerable in absorbing a lot of negative parts of American culture – obesity, automobile addiction – while access to the higher part of the culture (literature, music, free speech) is more difficult for them. They don’t exactly know how intelligently do “Bakumatsu” like the Japanese.
There is a cool exception of the classical music in Oman. Rulers of Oman have an obsession with opera and classical music. So they’re trying to make a little Salzburg – they even have concerts of American Jazz legends (Chick Corea) this year in Oman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFHnsDx8KJ0
Maybe even some genetic factors which put them more vulnerable to obesity when they switched to Western diets?
The economic costs of raising children (not to mention the emotional toll too) does indeed seem to play an important role in deteriorating fertility rates, at least among people living in industrialized Western countries. And you’re correct to point out that in the past, when the family unit was more cohesive, and economic sustainability was more closely tied to an agricultural lifestyle, having an abundance of offspring made more sense.
Another reason that those that come from a lower economic status tend to have more kids, that you wont read about in scientific journals, was bandied around by my step-father. His theory was that it was all closely tied in with accessibility to various entertainment opportunities. The more affluent have greater access to differing forms of entertainment that can be expensive, the poor do not, and therefore rely more on having sex in this regard. Kind of makes sense. 🙂
Not condoning Billie Eilish’s strange songs, but she is a musically talented girl (which is how is she famous despite not being good looking). Eilish will be more talented than average Eurovision contestants from Poland, no problem.
Eilish is at the same level as singer students in Berklee College of Music if you look at Berklee College of Music YouTube channel.
Eilish is talented e.g. look how nicely she sings things like lower mordent on a to g at 1:15 in her duo with Alicia Keys below (Alicia Keys has good pitch and singing imo, but she has had some problem like damaging her vocal chords maybe from the lower end of octave 4 and now had problems with sustaining notes like e4. Also it’s in Alicia Keys’ stupid ornaments, grace notes, etc, that she sings the wrong notes – her singing sounds worse by her trying to be some kind of jazz musician.)
https://i.4pcdn.org/pol/1516918531384.jpg
Agreed. The idea that fertility is going to stabilise at around 1.4 is pure wishful thinking. It’s more likely to stabilise around 1.0. It’s even possible it will go lower. Isn’t Singapore already below 1.0?
Even 1.4 is extinction level fertility.
Of course, unless we abandon the current capitalist model, the global economy will collapse before we go extinct. Not because of a lack of cheap labour (automation and AI can solve that problem) but because of rapidly shrinking markets.
Not yet. Would be great to meet Sailer. I recall enjoying comments from MarkinLA. Which other LA-area commenters are you thinking of?
It has occurred to you that some unz commenters can’t afford to be outed, right?
One of your prior comments says that you plan to move to Zambia, no?
We’ll be sure to take you seriously and at your word as well.
Where do you live exactly, and have you met up with any unz commenters from there?
I think there is a real danger of the Gulf being taken over by Muslim subcons or Africans. They really need to get off imported labor, IMO.
Automobile addiction: I think I would probably die before I walked a 100 feet in the sun in the Gulf. Obesity: I imagine Arabs would be among the most selected for storing calories for famine or dearth.
Many years ago, Jared Diamond came up with an interesting theory that Europeans had a Type II diabetes epidemic, like 200 years ago or more, due to a newfound abundance of calories, and, due to the effects of ill health, experienced a reproductive winnowing that made current Europeans more resistant to diabetes than most other peoples.
I don’t know if anyone has tried to test it with old DNA, but maybe it would support Anatoly’s breeder prediction, i.e. that we will adapt to these modern challenges by reproductive winnowing.
Is your wife white, John?
He’s right about entertainment but wrong about sex. Sex is not time consuming. Every couple has enough to reproduce plenty.
It’s the child-rearing. Taking care of babies and toddlers is very annoying if you have lots of fun things to do. It will completely destroy your lifestyle. OTOH, if you unplug from the bombardment of modern stimulus, things like taking a walk or playing with a 8 month year old are surprisingly fun and eventually more satisfying. Take it from an ex videogame and phone addict with 6 kids.
I never tried to imply that sex was “time consuming” in this instance. What I did try to convey is that according to my stepfather, sex is often times used a a form of entertainment that isn’t at least initially a very expensive activity that often is substituted by many for other sorts of more expensive activities.
Thoughts of an ex-farmer from Newbuttocks Region on demoghaphics
by Alexander Rozoff
I’m an ex-farmer, so I’m not involved in politics. I don’t even go to rallies. Well, what’s the point? Get a club on the head, 15 days of arrest and a fine. Do I need it? (…) Just note, I’m not involved in politics, I’m talking about extinction. Dinosaurs became extinct, and no one says that this is politics. This means that demography, for example, of cows, pigs and lambs, is also not politics. And human demography is also not politics, because human reproduction technically works the same way. Or doesn’t work, if there are poor conditions for livestock breeding … For human breeding.
For example, how is this arranged in Newbuttocks Region? If a farmer tells about high feed prices, low purchase prices for meat, poor roads, and problems with repairing equipment, all sorts of new nobles immediately rush in and start to attack him:
– That under the Tsar, farmers bred livestock without equipment or whims.
– That the meat was taken by horsecart to the master’s estate, and they didn’t dare speak about bad roads.
– And there were no purchase prices, just: if you don’t bring meat, you’ll be whipped at the stable.
– That a farmer should know his place.
– He (that is, me) is supposed by nature to till the soil and breed cattle.
– In general (they say) it is necessary to bring back serfdom, then the farmers will work.
– They say: every new noble should be given a farmer to feed him meat.
I’m not involved in politics, but I thought: what if they really introduce serfdom? And, having thought so, I did not wait. Just slaughtered the cattle and sold the meat in the market. And sold the farm with the plot to some oil trader, for his hunting lodge. And I left with little money (so that there was enough for arrangement) for the city-district center of Newbuttocks.
(…)
So, I read on a laptop in a newspaper (or maybe on a channel or portal – the devil will make a difference) … So, about demography. On the one hand they write: there are few children, that is, women give birth little. On the other hand, if a woman tells about her problems, about high prices for housing, food, and medicine; and also that infrastructure is poor, kindergartens are no good, benefits are small – then the new machos immediately rush in and start to attack her:
– That under the Tsar, women gave birth without whims. Right in the canopy, or in the field.
– That women didn’t dare speak about any kindergartens, but did it all by themselves.
– And there were no benefits, just: if a woman would buck up, her husband would whip her at the stable.
– That a woman should know her place.
– She (that is, woman) is supposed by nature to give birth, nurse, do chores, cook cabbage soup, and please her husband.
– In general (they say) it is necessary to bring back the Domostroy, then the women will do what is expected, without any whims.
– They say: it is necessary for every new macho to be provided with a woman – for pleasure, for childbearing, and for any housework and kitchen work.
I read this, and I think: oh, how stupid are these new nobles and new machos. (…)
So they won’t have either livestock, or women with children.
For their oil trading, they will get Chinese stew “The Great Wall” (also known as “Horns and hooves in their own juice”) and a rubber woman with a hole (also Chinese).
https://alex-rozoff.livejournal.com/220910.html
This is very stupid propaganda
Most of the Arab world is still poor (and therefore with high fertility rates), while Gulf is a minority rich region.
Poor Arab countries like Syria, Egypt, Yemen, even Jordan, have been producing more young people, than the rulers of those countries can survive with from a point of view of political stability (now we see the result with millions of young Syrians flooding Europe).
Countries like UAE and Qatar can (and do) simply absorb young people from undeveloped (therefore still high fertility) mass of Arab countries.
In that documentary I post above of obesity in Qatar. The school is mainly children of diplomats, but when they are talking to a young woman, they say the family is actually going to Egypt for a wedding of their family (so Qataris they interview are actually some kind of Egyptian family?).
So they need more shading or shelter from sun, and higher density housing.
Although there are now examples where they are comminisioned nicer pedestrian oriented urban planning.
It’s a bit of a primitive kind of determinism.
Really, people can just go to a swimming pool on Sunday, go on the bicycle or walk to work in the morning, eat one meal less. Some of this is “willpower” (that is gifted more to some people than others), but some is just an adjustment of lifestyle which anyone can do.
From the same place, thoughts on housewifing from an ordinary Russian woman on February 28, 2020 – but also thoughts of my mom when I was a teenager and for a time had those fantasies. And I myself am a housewife now, but only because I’m independently wealthy. If I didn’t have this security, my life would be organized very differently.
For thoughts of Russian men and classic authors, I refer you to Dostoyevsky’s Crime and Punishment (the story of the Marmeladov family) and Veresaev’s 1899 novella Two Ends, which is even more of a horror story, as Marmeladov was just a soft-natured drunk and Andrey Ivanovich a full-blown abuser. Nothing like reading old literature to clear one’s head from illusions about the idyllic “trad” times.
https://www.litmir.me/br/?b=129799&p=1
It’s funny that anyone of us, who has a sibling from our mother – have mothers who have achieved this politically idealized “replacement fertility”, or almost (it is around 2,1 children per woman).
However, in modernized countries, it falls below this level for longer than most people seem to know.
For example, in Russia, fertility rates (actual fertility rates – i.e cohort fertility or eventual fertility) has been steady at the same level of around 1,6 children per woman for 30 years now. But even in the 1980s, it was only around 0,2-0,3 children per woman higher.
But if look at Germany, for the women cohorts born as early as 1901 (i.e. 119 years ago!), were already at or slightly below replacement fertility rates.
It’s only with post-war “baby boom” (i.e. women cohorts born 1921-1940) where there is a temporary rise above replacement fertility.
https://i.imgur.com/e7JHMIS.jpg
I theorize that declining fertility rates are largely due to pensions and other forms of retirement plans. In poor countries, if you don’t have children to take care of you in old age, you’re screwed. In wealthy modern societies, people forego having children in the belief there is a pot of gold waiting for them in their golden years.
This combined with a general denial of aging and death allows people to be cavalier about preparing for the future. Not too long ago, I took two weeks off to care for my mother who had surgery. She’s wealthy enough to hire help but there’s nothing like family to take care of you.
My housewife and her six sisters, most of which are housewives are not “independently wealthy.” There is more appropriately a culture which produces that. The appropriate term is indeed, as melaf noted, “stupid propaganda.”
Speaking personally, I think I would need some sort of air-conditioned tunnel, or a roofed path with evaporative cooling. But Arabs are probably different, and, anyway, they need not necessarily be active at peak sun times.
Yes, this is probably truer than Singapore, which is drawing on low fertility China, but there are various dangers in it. In part, their wealth comes from being independent of their larger neighbors, so they may have to draw further afield, and then you are possibly talking about greater ethnic differences. And anyway, it is not too good to open your door too much, as the examples of the US and Western Europe clearly show.
There are individual solutions and possibly cultural solutions too. I only mean to say, biology will catch anything that falls through those cracks.
No amount of exercising will make you less fat. You need a very radical change in your diet; for a start, you’d need to completely get rid of processed sugars and white flour, which is pretty much impossible in 2020. (Not to mention expensive as hell.)
The impressive record of writing nonsense continues.
Your stepfather was probably an observant man inside his own social stratum, but didn’t look at the elite. Old money and aristocrats, whose life mainly consists of expensive entertainment, tend to have 3-4 children. The Grand Duke of Luxembourg has 5, the Count of Paris, who would claim the French throne if France restored monarchy – 5; the youngest was born in 2018, so it’s not just a phenomenon from the past decades. The King of Belgium has 4 (youngest born in 2008) and the Crown Prince of Denmark 4 (youngest are twins born in 2011). 4 is pretty much the expected number when you see a picture of some English lord’s family in front of his castle. Aristocratic men, unlike businessmen or show business celebrities, tend to have all their children with the same wife, so their social group’s TFR is reliably high.
Among American people, the correlation between higher income and smaller families was firm around 1980, but broke down for the 4rd income decile and higher by 2010. A proposed explanation is cheap labour of babysitters and maids which mothers of these classes use.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/375/cpsprodpb/15A0F/production/_100719588_fig_inequality_fertility-976-nc.png
Replacement fertility isn’t fixed at 2.1 as most people believe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate
The mortality rates in the Western world were higher in the late 1800s/early 1900s than they are in the third world today. So all those countries probably had below replacement fertility back then, even if their fertility rate could have been above 3, just because of all of the sickie fucks dying everywhere.
Well I have never been fat at all, and I eat a lot of “processed sugars and white flour”.
On the other hand, I walk to the office in the morning, I walk to shops, and around 1 evening each week I go to gym (just doing fast swimming for usually 30 minutes). That is enough to be a good, healthy weight.
The problem is just, many people drive when the visit work/shops/cafes, etc, instead of daily light exercise from things like walking/cycling – and they are also too lazy to do a really intensive exercise once each week.
He probably had Mexican-Americans in mind, who also happen to be mostly Roman Catholic. Where I grew-up, one house down from us, was a family of Irish-Americans that included 12 children. Mrs. McGuire was a beautiful woman who went to the beauty parlor at least once a week (no wonder her husband couldn’t keep his hands off of her). the old man hung around the house watching baseball games and old ‘Gunsmoke” reruns on the TV, drawing on welfare. The weekly haul of groceries filled two large cars, just the toilet paper itself filled one seat! There were also a good number of Italian-American families in my neighborhood too that usually included about 8 kids. I don’t think that the Roman Catholic church holds as much sway in forming the parameters of family planning today as they once did.:-)
Yes replacement fertility was higher than 2,1 in that time – and National Socialist Germany (with Hitler), was definitely below replacement fertility rate through the 1930s.
On the other hand, Hitler used a lot of propaganda about how women needed to have more children. Here is just the predictable pattern, that natalist government policy is always a result of low fertility rates, but there is no example of it changing eventual cohort fertility rates , even perhaps in the example of Ceausescu (who succeeded in a temporary increase in fertility in Romania – and a lot of orphans – by banning abortions/contraception, which increase soon all or mostly reversed after an initial shock increase). “Fertility behaviour” is something less superficial than governments/politicians seem to believe.
It seems that government policy can successfully accelerate falls in fertility rate though (like China or Bangladesh).
Good for you. Wait till you are 35.
Well, once you get to 35, don’t say you weren’t warned.
Re: Billie Eilish
It’s not a question of talent. It’s a matter of her depressive Weltanschauung
which is affecting millions of U.S. teenage girls negatively. What happened to
the joy of life that Madonna still had in the ‘80s? Or even Alanis Morissette in
the ‘90s? Although one could already see dark clouds on the horizon in the latter’s
irony and cynicism. To me it’s one of many symptoms of American decline.
I could write a whole essay about it but don’t have the time for it.
Interestingly, in Szemplińska’s song the word Empires is, of course, used
metaphorically – ranging from fools falling in love, to mini-empires created
by oligarchs like Jeffrey Epstein, to actual empires like the British or
Russian empires that all come to a bad end.
Population decline should eventually stop due to breeders becoming a larger and larger percentage of the total population with each generation, though–even taking breeder attrition into account here.
Well maybe I am old fashioned, but I think musicians are just there to make some music. I don’t care about politics or symbolic interpretation.
I don’t like Billie Eilish’s songs, but she is talented for her age, and that’s the important thing.
She was 13 when she wrote the Ocean Eyes song (although perhaps she has help from her brother).
I think harmony of her song goes VI-VII-i in minor, so in the relative major this should be IV-V-vi.
So your mind tries to resolve it in g major, but then when she sings “your ocean eyes”, it moves to the I (in relative major) then IV, but you can interpret the same notes she sings as IV-i in the minor.
It’s something ambiguous which doesn’t resolve in the way we expected, and then when it does resolve as a IV-i in the minor, our ears hear the lack of resolution in the relative major. This is a talented person (either her or her brother) to make a huge pop hit like this, and with something which has a quite “uneasy” or “unresolved” harmony for pop.
Aside from that, she sings this song in a very professional way.