Silent (Arab) Spring


Sima Diab on Twitter makes the observation that the countries most affected by the “Arab Spring” are easy to find on a live air traffic map (because nobody is going there).

Don’t you just hear that crickets chirping sound of freedom ringing?

Incidentally, Russia’s and Britain’s hardline response to what is now universally understood to have been a terrorist bomb attack – evacuating its 70,000 stranded tourists there and barring further flights – is understandable but arguably short-sighted. 12% of Egyptian GDP accrues to tourism, and the rest of the economy is too sluggish to make good the difference. Less tourism equals economic decline equals a decline in good guy Sisi’s ratings and more support for bad guy Islamists.

With about half the country being essentially Islamists – that’s both the percentage of Egyptians who support death for apostasy and who voted for the Muslim brotherhood – a cutoff in tourist dollars (rubles, pounds sterling, etc.) is the last thing Egypt needs.

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. IMO the reality is a bit more complex. Sisi does not have any ideology or vision about solving Egypt’s problems other than keeping himself and military in power by supressing the popular islamist will as long as he could. While this may seem good thing to humanitarian globalists it IMO only postpones the inevitable explosion.
    How desperate Sisi is can be seen from the fact that he is kept afloat by Saudi money and in return supports both Saudi war in Yemen and wahhabist parties against MB. All while supporting Assad’s fight against the same wahhabists in Syria.
    It is the pacifism of MB that is keeping Egypt safe by containing wahhabism. If they lose the hearts and minds of the population I am pretty sure Sisi will not be able to contain the next incarnation of IS.

  2. reiner Tor says

    Unfortunately, that means the future looks very bleak for the Arabs in any Arab country. They themselves are low-IQ, low-trust and clannish, and their natural resources will run out after a while. It seems extremely smart move on the part of Europe to take as many of them as possible in, so that at least we can share their problems.

  3. Well was it wise for 70’s Russian tourists to keep visiting historical sites in Afghanistan even after whole parties were killed in various unpleasant ways?

    Egypt is run by the military and paid for by the US, which will just up its support for the generals the more trouble there is.

  4. Erik Sieven says

    postponing is good. The problem with Islam in the last 30 years has been that there have been nothing but muslim victories, thus it is the “strong horse”. Every country where Islam at least once does not immediately win is good for the future. Someday the muslim expansion – demographical, violent, ideological, territorial – has to stop, and somewhere this end of muslim expansion has to begin.

  5. What choice is there? Anatoly is right the consequences are not good, but again, what choice is there?

  6. “there have been nothing but muslim victories, thus it is the “strong horse”.”

    Retarded. You seem to be very impressed by moronic islamist propaganda. Cutting of a few heads, posing with guns, acting tough =/= “strong”

  7. Erik Sieven says

    raising the muslim share of the population in every major country (USA, Russia, China, India, Germany, France, UK) and a decreasing share of non-muslim population in muslim countries is a success. More mosques in Europe and at the same time less non-muslim temples, churches, etc. in muslim countries is a success. Increasing consideration of muslim interests in non-muslim countries and at the same time increasing marginalization of non-muslims in muslim countries is a success. And almost everywhere (both in muslim majority countries and in countries with a muslim minority) violence between muslims and non-muslims is a one-way street, which is another success.

  8. Just nuke the ka’aba and the muslim droids will shut down. I saw them do it in Star Wars. It’s their command center.

  9. Erik Sieven says

    I do not think that this expansion is planned. It is rather the result of social institutions (especially political and military retention of any possible anti-muslim force) which seem to work quite similar around the globe

  10. I think you’re looking into this too much. There’s a simple explanation: Euros are cucks.

  11. Erik Sieven says

    might be, but than the same holds true for Hindu Indians, Han Chinese, secular Muslims in muslim countries (especially nationalists in muslim countries), christian and other non-muslim Africans.

  12. German_reader says

    I actually think that this would be a pretty good idea for a deterrence strategy against the Muslim world if Europeans weren’t such stupid losers nowadays…if Muslims do anything existentially threatening towards Europe, Mecca will be pulverised. Of course it would have to be left unclear what exactly would be seen as an existential threat, and of course such a strategy could only be implemented after the necessary political preconditions in Europe have been created (so unfortunately this is very unlikely).

  13. 2,000 years ago, a powerful European nation pulverized the holy house of a savage, wretched tribe of middle eastern herders. They left the people alive though, and allowed them to wander around, and some of the survivors even settled in Rome.

    2,000 years later, the descendants of those people have the highest IQ in the world, control major industries, and are responsible for a high percentage of human accomplishment much beyond their numbers.

    So take a lesson: You can’t destroy people by destroying a bunch of stones.

  14. German_reader says

    Well you may be right, it was more of a hypothetical idea anyway. Maybe deterrence should be more personal…one always reads about those wealthy Gulf Arabs who go around funding all manner of Jihadist groups…maybe it would be good if some of them had unfortunate accidents.

  15. You’re assuming such people (and the jihadis they fund) are completely useless. On the contrary, they are extremely useful, precisely to the kind of people who create unfortunate accidents.

  16. German_reader says

    Well yes, I know what you’re getting at, somehow the policies of the US and other Western states have had the effect of benefiting Islamists in the Mideast (and of course this has been going on for a long time).
    I’m not sure though if that’s intended or just the result of massive stupidity (and possibly corruption) among Western elites.
    Anyway, back to the main topic: I understand the argument that it plays into the hands of the Islamists if tourism declines (and that’s the intention behind those attacks)…but seriously, who’s going to risk his own life and vacation in countries that can’t ensure basic security? I certainly wouldn’t. And you’re not just at risk from Islamists…only a few weeks ago, Egyptian security forces shot some unlucky Mexican tourists because they mistook them for jihadis…

  17. Of course it’s fucking intended. Do you think the kind of predators who sit in the Pentagon and the three-letter agencies give a fuck about civilian casualties? Do you think they give a fuck about the refugee crisis? Of course not. Anything to accomplish geopolitical goals. It’s not even a fucking conspiracy. Kissinger said so himself in his autobiography and his books, and he has even gone on the record admitting it.

    “The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes some time.”

    Then you have the contras being armed by Reagan (lol) , the training camps in Jordan where Syrian rebels were trained.

  18. German_reader says

    I don’t know…of course there are theories that the US is deliberately wrecking states and creating chaos in the Mideast (often with reference to that “A clean break” paper from the 1990s and the activities of the Project for a new American century), thereby creating favorable conditions for jihadis…and certainly US (and to a lesser degree European) policy has had that effect…but I’m doubtful whether this is intentional. It just seems like a fantastically stupid policy.

  19. Indeed, I see no traffic over Libya, but Tunisia seems busy enough, and that’s where the whole Arab Spring started. If I were to guess at the significant distinguishing factor, it would be that the revolution in Tunisia was mostly indigenous, whereas Libya was “liberated” by outside forces. The obvious lesson is that we should not intervene on either side in these domestic quarrels, however tempting it may be for our grandiose geopolitical schemes.

  20. By destroying the Muslim Brotherhood (who are not angels), Sisi created a vacuum that has been filled by violent Salafists like IS. The notion that Sisi is the solution to Egypt’s problems is laughable.

  21. The real reason why canceling flights to Egypt is a bad idea is not because it will harm that “good guy Sisi” (lol). It’s because, by depriving Egypt of tourist revenue, it will increase Egypt’s financial dependence on the Saudis, which has already skyrocketed to astronomical heights under “good guy Sisi”. This, in turn, will further enhance the influence of Salafists. And we will all be able to thank “good guy Sisi” for this lovely turn of events. All hail “good guy Sisi”.

  22. greysquirrell says

    The Han Chinese are the exception ; they are winning against the Muslim Uighurs. The Han are slowly but surely and deliberately wiping out the Uighurs . The Chinese don’t give a dam about PC,diversity,tolerance etc.. and will put down any major Muslim uprising with extreme prejudice , and Muslims know it.

  23. greysquirrell says

    Good let the Egyptians extract more money from the Saudis ; will mean the Saudis will deplete their reservers faster . Less money the Saudis have , the better.

  24. By that logic you should support anything and everything the Saudis choose to spend their money on. I’m glad to know you’re a fan of Jaish al Fatah.

  25. Erik Sieven says

    I don´t believe it. In the recent decade there have been numerous terror attacks and very violent street riots / pogroms. The victim have been overwhelmingly Han. The Chinese government does effectively nothing against it, apart from some kind of appeasement policy, which is very similar to what the West does