State Terrorism or Audacious Intel Ops? Depends If It’s Belarus or Ukraine

The US and EU governments are accusing Belarus of “state terrorism” for forcing a RyanAir flight containing Roman Protasevich, an anti-Lukashenko activist, to make an emergency landing after a bomb hoax.

He participated in the Euromaidan, although other reports that he worked as a press secretary for the Azov Battalion in the subsequent Donbass War all seem to date from the past few couple of days and are of dubious authenticity EDIT: In a 2020 interview with Yury Dud’, Protesavich himself admitted that he spent a year in the zone of the ATO in Donbass and sustained several injuries (h/t Ivan Katchanovski), though he claims he worked in an exclusively journalistic capacity. However, as Katchanovski points out, Google searches fail to show any of his credited photos/publications about that war. Moreover, an issue of the “Black Sun” magazine of the Neo-Nazi Azov Battalion in which he poses in camo (right) has recently been dug up (h/t Insomniac Resurrected). Associations that would get you permanently canceled/deplatformed in the West are quietly tided over when you serve Western geopolitical interests. /EDIT. During the late 2010s, he worked for various Western-sponsored media organizations, including RFERL. In the runup to last year’s elections, he co-founded the Telegram channel “NEXTA” that coordinated many of the protests during the abortive Minsk Maidan. In Belarus, he faces charges of organizing mass riots, as well as doxing the identities of riot policemen and calling for reprisals against them.

I can’t judge to what extent those allegations are accurate. But the main issue of contention isn’t so much that, but the allegations that Belarus was committed “air piracy” or even “state terrorism” in pursuit of a political prisoner. These criticisms might have some merit, as phoning in fake bomb threats and sending a MiG-29 to tail a commercial airliner to force it to make a landing does seem to be an extreme step. Or it would be, had Western countries and their client states not repeatedly engaged in such politicized “air piracy” itself over the past few years.

First, there was the 2013 episode with respect to the Presidential airliner of Evo Morales, which was forced into making a landing in Austria after a wall of countries including France, Spain, and Italy denied airspace to his plane. This was because back in Moscow, Morales had hinted that he was open to offering Snowden asylum, which spurred the US into demanding its vassals ground the plane.

Second, there was an entirely analogous plan jointly implemented by the Ukraine and the US to lure Russian mercenaries from Wagner with fake job offers in Venezuela by way of Minsk and Istanbul, and nab them while they were over Ukrainian airspace. (Amusingly, after Lukashenko handed the Wagnerites back to Russia instead, the Ukrainians put him on their “Peacekeeper” list of enemies of the Ukrainian nation). Indeed, Western media coverage of this failed operation, to the extent it happened at all, was decidedly not in the “state terrorism”/”air piracy” frame. For instance, Business Insider Mitch Prothero’s title says it all: How Ukraine’s audacious secret service successfully scammed Putin and his mercenaries” by Mitch Prothero.

Westerners aren’t so happy when countries that aren’t in their club pull their own tricks against them.

Anyhow, from Russia’s perspective, it would certainly be good if the EU goes ahead with all of the sanctions it is now considering – banning Belavia and flights over Belarus, withdrawing recognition of Belorussian pilot licenses, and perhaps even suspending ground transit into Belarus (this is apparently getting seriously discussed). Some countries, including Lithuania and the UK, have already banned their air carriers from making flights over Belarus. The more isolated Belarus from the West, the brighter the prospects for its reunification with Russia.

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.

 

Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.

 

Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.

Comments

  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

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  2. Passer by says

    First, there was the 2013 episode with respect to the Presidential airliner of Evo Morales, which was forced into making a landing in Austria after a wall of countries including France, Spain, and Italy denied airspace to his plane.

    One ring rules them all. Their whole culture was deliberately terraformed in such a way that they will be forever puppets. I call them the euro puppets.

  3. The more isolated Belarus from the West, the brighter the prospects for its reunification with Russia.

    Incompetent kremlins showed on countless occasions that they are completely incapable of exploiting such situations. “Market inefficiency is only useful if you can exploit it for your own benefit”. Pretty sure Luka will continue evading reunification without much effort. Every time he meets with Putin, Luka is the dominant alpha chad in the room. He is the one who successfully scams the weak.

  4. Passer by says

    The more isolated Belarus from the West, the brighter the prospects for its reunification with Russia.

    They will push him more towards Russia, but they hate so much that they can not stop themselves. They need to lash out. Hatred blinds them.

  5. I guess people will get a kick of this video…

    supposedly his girlfriend was also removed from the flight so…. cool?

    https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1396900282093686788

  6. Passer by says

    supposedly his girlfriend was also removed from the flight

    A Russian girlfriend. Could be a plant.

  7. songbird says

    Don’t know the man, or the merits of the accusation, but, as loathsome as he sounds, I should like to see the label “terrorism” applied to anything that results in even a minor travel inconvenience to me – and also to others, on the principal that would discourage bad actors from bothering me.

  8. AnonFromTN says

    Forced grounding in Austria of Morales plane back in 2013 broke a lot more rules than this episode, even if we assume that Belarus authorities force-grounded the plane with this pathetic coward onboard. No wonder this piece of shit was supporting banderites: birds of a feather.

    Now this “hero” is giving away everything he knows, including his sponsors and superiors in Western intelligence agencies. Naturally, those implicated seethe with rage.

    I am no fan of Luka (he is too dumb and flaky to my taste), but he went up a few notches in my estimation after that.

  9. Yes, this was bold and based, can’t take that away from him.

  10. alexandra2036 says

    No, she is opposition activist and just a low key gf of him.

    What is more interesting are the four unnamed Russian nationals, who boarded off the plane at Minsk. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stays silent about who they are and their well being 🙂

    1)
    I’m 99.(9)% sure they are FSB/GRU agents who were the part of the plan. (not sure “bomb” was the A plan, maybe initially they thought to start a fight on board, but the analysis of plane behavior makes it more interesting https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2021/05/24/kakaia-tvoia-familiia-svoloch )
    2)
    I am 95% sure Lukashenko doesn’t have the guts to hijack/threat a civilian plan, so this pretty much was all coordinated from Kremlin/ensured to have a Putin’s info/diplomatic back up.

    Right now, all Russian TV pundits(propagandists creating narrative) and online bots are whitewashing and enthusiastiacally approving hijacking and kidnapping, so i am not 95% but 99.9% now too lol. Seems like Putin promised Lukashenko huge propaganda forces support.

  11. AnonFromTN says

    I am 95% sure Lukashenko doesn’t have the guts to hijack/threat a civilian plan

    As a matter of fact, Luka is lacking brains, but not guts. He could have done it, presenting habitually cautious Putin with fait accompli. Judging by Western hysterics, he hit the nail on the head this time.

  12. Verymuchalive says

    All this courier ( which is all he is ) had to do is Athens-Berlin-Lithuania. Nothing very clever, there. Why is he flying anywhere near Belarus?. Only a cretin would walk into such a trap !

  13. Only a single US Representative was willing to defend Nick Fuentes by name when he was put on the no-fly list.

    But the neocon caucus was screaming about this.

  14. AnonFromTN says

    Only a cretin would walk into such a trap !

    What makes you think he is not a cretin? You don’t need brains to follow the orders of your masters. Unfortunately for him, his CIA, MI6, and other masters are not too bright, either. Remember: diversity, not intelligence, is their strength.

  15. Coconuts says

    The other day the Belarusian authorities also took down tut.by, the big independent online news site. Belarus Feed isn’t available at the moment either (I think they may have been linked to tut).

  16. Passer by says

    New account – means old account? : )

  17. Its amusing how this Roman Protasevich guy got captured immediately after National Endowment for Democracy ratted out their involvement in Belarus and Russia to Lexus and Vovan. This will definitely spice up his conversation with KGB.

    https://www.rt.com/russia/523956-regime-change-belarus-prank/

    Plot twist: NED secretly works for Lukashenko.

  18. Morton's toes says

    Reuters in their story said he is a journalist and this is a freedom of the press issue. Also they want to know who the three people who got off the plane with him and the girlfriend were.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/minutes-touchdown-moment-belarusian-dissident-knew-his-time-was-up-2021-05-23/

  19. Mulga Mumblebrain says

    Belarus just practised a little ‘extraordinary rendition’ to get their hands on a traitor on the foreign pay-roll. Bravo-I hope the little turd gets twenty years, with concessions if he blabs about his Imperial paymasters.

  20. Mulga Mumblebrain says

    Every stinking traitor on the NED/CIA payroll these days is a ‘journalist’ which is now a euphemism for ‘shit’.

  21. Mulga Mumblebrain says

    He might have been sacrificed like Navalny to become a casus belli for further economic warfare and sabotage. Thank God someone is taking these Western financed traitors seriously. I greatly admire Lukashenko simply because the vermin of the Western fakestream media so detest him. He must be a good chap.

  22. I remember NEXTA posting the recipes for Molotov’s cocktails during the color revolution attempt, along with quite inflammatory rhetoric (e.g. calls for violence). The label ‘terrorist’ suits this guy well.

  23. alexandra2036 says

    No, was surfing the Net and recalled Karlin’s blog. Used to catch a few interesting notes and thoughts back here many years ago, until he turned into full blown discount kremlin propagandist supporting autocracy, terror and repressions by filthiest of the people.

    its funny(but also very sad) how big junk of russian cargo-cultist alt-right(or whatever they call themselves) “movement”(more like online community, cuz all potentially anti-esteblishment movements in Russia are considered extremist, no matter is it Tesak, LGBT activists or orxthodox hermits) is mostly just an echo chamber of Kremlin(aka oligarchat+siloviki) propaganda. Such cases.

    p.s. biggest russophobe of the world sits in Kremlin

  24. alexandra2036 says

    How is being a patriot of Belarus is betrayal? Are you a bot or just delusional?

    Lukashenko is madman dictator, who killed handful of opponents. All his power – is secret police(KGB). Such a ‘leader of nation’ who is afraid he will lose any fair and transparent elections, so he has to jail all opponents each election cycle lol. He is a pathetic state terrorist, who destined himself to be remembered as an enemy of the nation #1 lol

  25. Back in October, 1985, there was a not entirely dissimilar event which occurred. In violation of international law,, the US had fighter jets force down an Egyptair 737 in Italy which had four Arab hijackers aboard. They had hijacked the Achille Lauro.

    It turned into a real Mexican.. err..Italian standoff.

    About ten Egyptian special forces on board the force landed 737 guarded the four hijackers. They were confronted by 80 US special forces who demanded they be released to their custody. The Egyptians were then augmented by an additional 50 Italian police and special forces who didn’t want to release the hijackers to the US. A further three hundred Italian police were then ordered by Italy to surround all these confronting groups and the plane.

    The US and Italy then both had fighter jets confront each other over the matter, and so it went…

    True, in this event the US ultimately backed down and abided by international law, but it had been forced to do so.

    This was called the ‘Sigonell crisis’:

    ‘The choice of the Sigonella base to divert the EgyptAir 737 that had the hijackers of the Achille Lauro aboard caused a dispute between the governments of the US and Italy and included elements of their militaries…’

    ‘..A standoff occurred when 20 Carabinieri and 30 VAM (Vigilanza Areonautica Militare) contested for control of the plane with the 80 armed operatives of the U.S. Delta Force and SEAL Team Six. These contesting groups were soon surrounded by 300 additional armed Carabinieri (the Italian military police) who had also blocked off the runway with their trucks.’

    ‘The Italian Air Force (VAM) personnel and Carabinieri had already been lining up facing the US special forces soon after the American’s main contingent had arrived by C-141s. Other Carabinieri had been sent from Catania and Syracuse as reinforcement. These events became known as the Sigonella Crisis.’

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Achille_Lauro_hijacking

  26. I never identified as Alt Right (though I don’t know why you’d have an issue with that, given that your hero Protasevich participated in a Neo-Nazi organization). I did identify as a Russian nationalist, though with Putin de facto adopting a nationalist program over the past few years – taking a course on Donbass integration, easing immigration barriers to Russian speakers from the Near Abroad, decriminalizing 282 (which Russian liberals have always supported for Russian nationalists), beautifying the country with reconstructed churches, to give just a few examples – that is an issue that has largely become moot. Someone like Margarita Simonyan is more of a Russian nationalist to me than “nationalists” who serve as useful idiots for the State Department and go to Navalny protests.

    The fact that various freaks were left on the sidelines (open Neo-Nazis, Homintern agents, Russia’s Waco cosplayers) is a good thing.

    Belarus is a fake polity, so while being its “patriot” isn’t really a betrayal as such, it is cringe (much like larping as an “Ingrian” patriot). Incidentally, the foremost “patriot” of Belarus for most of the past decade has been no other than Lukashenko himself, with his post-Crimea “Litvinizing” policies. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/belarus-horseshoe

  27. Looks like he did spent a year in the Donbass with the Ukrainians and was wounded a few times (admits it himself in an interview with Russian liberal show host Yury Dud): https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1396975679187689472

    He claims here was there only in a journalistic capacity, but Google searches fail to find photos/publications attributed to him. If he’s obfuscating, this raises the possibility that he is in fact a direct equivalent of the Wagnerites.

  28. The Western regimes are franticly screaming.. Batka pushed the “Epic trolling” concept to new highs. LOL.

  29. Not Raul says

    It sounds like another Cheryl “Cindy” Bentov.

  30. Maïkl Makfaïl says

    Delightful. All those western-paid internet warriors feel they are untouchable , they need to be hunted down and neutralized wherever they hide. Barbarians from the other side of the oceans and their EU lackeys can scream as much as they want , Loukachenko is not wimpy Putin and the more they hit him the more we get close to reunification.

  31. Not Raul says

    Perhaps he’s a soldier of fortune himself, willing to work for Russophile interests sometimes, and various compradors and globalists at other times.

    Luka has enemies in both camps.

  32. Unless you address the 2013 identical situation with Morales and Austria (and a few similar cases) you have zero credibility. Discussing half a story is an emotional dribble.

    The same goes for Kosovo and Crimea. Mentioning Crimea without admitting that Nato did the same in Kosovo is not serious. (Nato did much worse, they killed thousands.)

    Be an adult.

  33. He was with the Ukrainians, not the Donbassers. If it were otherwise, I would absolutely condemn this.

  34. Margarita Simonyan

    Can you explain why some on the Russian right seethe about her so much? While I’m generally not a fan of most of RT’s content I never got why she in particular seems to provoke such a hostile reaction.

  35. When we all get based there will be nothing left but to have a war. It is heading there with each new incident. The ground under us is disappearing – there are almost no rules left. Lots of fools auditioning for the Franz Ferdinand role.

    Next: Belarus has no other option but to de facto merge with Russia – another brilliant move by the smartest people around. Western hysterics have another cause to scream about. If there is a war, Belarus just inched ahead of Donbas or Transnistria as the most likely ground zero.

    The fool from Minsk will go to jail. His girl will find someone else. Looking at his pock-marked potato face she probably turned him in. Maybe not exactly the greatest Greek vacation, or maybe she got paid more.

  36. AnonfromTN says

    He might have been sacrificed like Navalny to become a casus belli for further economic warfare and sabotage.

    That’s a possibility: being a nonentity, like Navalny, he certainly would be worth more dead than alive to Western propagandists. Then again, lately the West does not need causes (or even pretexts) to impose sanctions on Russia. As Russian commenters now joke, during WWII ~400,000 German soldiers were killed in Belarus, which makes a perfect pretext to impose new sanctions on Russia.

  37. Mulga Mumblebrain says

    Are you a brainwashed fool, or an active stooge of the USA? Being on the Western payroll is precisely the opposite of being a patriot of anywhere.

  38. AnonfromTN says

    He was with the Ukrainians

    Of course he was with neo-banderites. Ages ago alchemists knew that like dissolves like. Modern impolite version: shit to shit.

  39. Bashibuzuk says

    supposedly his girlfriend was also removed from the flight so…. cool?

    Sophia Sapega…

    Сапега in Russian = Sapega in Lithuanian = Sapieha in Polish.

    https://www.geni.com/people/Anna-Sapega/6000000003526839498

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sapieha

    Looks like Sophia has quite an illustrious ancestry. I hope that the Belarus KGB treat her like a Lady.

    AP, is it possible that this young lady is of PLC Ruthenian Szlashta descent ?

    (Nexta was Polish based and Lithuanian backed. Perhaps the Belarus KGB want to work the Sapega / Sapieha connection and make sure that Sophia is not some kind of “higher end” Masha Pevchikh).

  40. Triteleia Laxa says

    Simonyan was appointed chief editor of RT at just 25 years old. She’s also plain-looking. Is that enough to get her disliked? Is there any woman who is even close to as successful/talented who isn’t disliked just as much by that demographic?

    Perhaps this is unfair and I don’t know, but having always assumed that accusations of male misogyny were untrue because I found them bewildering, it does seem that quite a lot of certain political demographics really do hate women even while being desperate to get their attention.

  41. Abelard Lindsey says

    Its good that you pointed this out, AK. I thought that we also had forced down a plane for some reason in the past. It was Morales’s plane when the U.S. government thought that Snowden was on it.

    All I can say is what comes around goes around.

    The U.S. government doesn’t like getting served its own dish.

  42. Dan Hayes says

    These Italian forces were probably direct descendants of the gutsy World War II midget submariners!

  43. Not Raul says

    This sort of thing is bad, regardless of who does it.

    Western hypocrisy is no excuse.

  44. AnonfromTN says

    Western hypocrisy is no excuse.

    Maybe in an ivory tower. In real life, if you try playing an honest game with sharpers, you lose before the game has even started.

  45. Mr. Hack says

    Indeed, the Sapieha brand name has a long and varied history originating as a Ruthenian family that acquired great wealth that translated into reaching the highest echelons of Lithuanian and then Polish ruling society. The family even had been elevated to having a permanent position as a member of the Habsburg manor house. The family still had members that were active in politics and social work well into the 20th century, mostly in Poland, but in other parts of Europe as well. Early on the family had representatives that reached the high positions of princes and hetmans as well. I’m not quite sure about Sophia’s role as a family member? The family’s history is certainly an interesting one and I for one would be interested in knowing more about any books written about this colorful family.

  46. The Morales incident was an abhorrent violation of international norms.

    The fact that it’s the go-to defense for Lukashenka’s supporters would indicate that they realize how bad this is.

    How long before people start remarking on Lukashenka’s remarkable 80% victory in the 2020 elections as proof of what a great guy he is….

  47. Felix Keverich says

    No, she is opposition activist and just a low key gf of him.

    Who is paying for her tuition in Lithuanian university, I wonder? If she is sponsored by Western democracy-promotion complex, that makes her a foreign agent, and Russian security agencies need to take a closer look at her and the people she associates with in Russia.

  48. Shortsword says
  49. Felix Keverich says

    The Morales incident was an abhorrent violation of international norms.

    It wasn’t treated as such by the “international community”, and thus established a new norm. In the past 30 years US effectively normalised:

    • wars of aggression
    • extrajudicial assassinations and hostage taking
    • maritime piracy and blockades
    • collective punishment and siege warfare
    • apartheid and ethnic cleansing

    That’s the “rule-based order” we live in.

  50. Terrifying video

    I’m terrified.

    The EU “leadership” is currently mentally the sorority dormitory in uproar because stud Lukashenko turned down the offer of the leader cow.

  51. gutsy World War II midget submariners!

    I want a B movie titled like this, and a punk/grind album titled like this, please.
    Also a pulpy man’s mag story from 1952 titled like this as well.

  52. Belarus diversion echoes prior Ukrainian incident involving Belavia 737

    Ryanair’s incident involving the apparent forced diversion of a Boeing 737-800 to Minsk strongly parallels an event five years ago involving a Minsk-bound service operated by Belarusian flag-carrier Belavia.

    The Belavia aircraft, also a 737-800, had departed Kiev’s downtown Zhulhany airport for Minsk on 21 October 2016 with 142 occupants.

    But just 27nm short of the airspace boundary between the Kiev and Minsk flight information regions, according to Belavia at the time, the crew was instructed by Ukrainian air traffic control to return to the airport without explanation.

    “It was also stated that, in the event of non-compliance with the order, fighters would be [sent to intercept],” the carrier added.

    Ukrainian law enforcement, the airline said, removed an Armenian passenger from the aircraft after it landed at Zhulhany, about 20min after being ordered to return.

    The passenger was widely identified as the reporter Armen Martirosyan, aligned with the anti-Maidan movement which opposed the Ukrainian government and its closer ties with Europe.

    He was detained only briefly and departed on another Belavia service to Minsk within 3h, the airline said.

    Belarus’s foreign ministry formally protested to Ukrainian’s diplomatic mission over the authorities’ actions to “forcibly return” the Belavia aircraft.

    “The Belarusian side expects an official apology and demands reimbursement of all financial costs and expenses caused by the actions of the Ukrainian side,” it stated.

    Ukrainian state security service SBU reportedly dismissed Belavia’s claims that air traffic control had threatened to deploy combat aircraft during the incident, suggesting that claims of such a measure against a civil aircraft were absurd.

    Remember Western outrage over this incident – yeah, me neither.

    BTW the Belarus opposition was planning to kill Luka & his progeny.

    So, charging this Protesavich guy with terrorism is not completely out of place.

  53. Mulga Mumblebrain says

    And Banderite and other Ukronazi bots like you, ‘Alexandra’. What of you? You’re quite a confabulatoor, that’s for sure. Oh, God! You’re not Masha Gessen, are you?

  54. I newly have the cover of the Black Sun (no nazis in Ukraine TM) Azov magazine, where shProtasevych poses in Azov battalion uniform on my updated post:

    https://insomniacresurrected.com/2021/05/23/nexta-founder-roman-protasevych-arrested-in-minsk/

    He might as well have done some press work for Azov. The cover photo comes from his Twitter apparently. His Facebook and Instagram are unaccessible I am being told.

  55. Nah, not forever.

    Extended neo al-Andalus, then, God willing, colonies of actually sane peoples.

  56. brighter the prospects for its reunification with Russia.

    So this could be the work of fanatical Russian Nationalists?

  57. Bashibuzuk says

    The family even had been elevated to having a permanent position as a member of the Habsburg manor house.

    Didn’t know that. It’s even more interesting!

  58. So this could be the work of fanatical Russian Nationalists?

    What was once divided shall be made whole again.

  59. Looks like it’s true, this + his own comments in Yury Dud’s interview suggest Protasevich worked for Azov in a PR capacity at a minimum.

    https://twitter.com/kooleksiy/status/1396992252640174083

  60. lol imagine if they used the same sanctions against Russia. Flights from the EU would be so long and so expensive.

  61. beavertales says

    In 1985, the US intercepted an Egyptian chartered airliner over the Mediterranean and forced it to land in Italy, because they wanted to arrest some PLO on board.

  62. Boomthorkell says

    I was thinking this made reunification more likely. Good.

    I suspect within two decades. It would be extra funny if Taiwan was reclaimed then, too.

  63. Taiwan is China, Crimea is Russia, Russia will be united.

  64. AnonFromTN says

    lol imagine if they used the same sanctions against Russia. Flights from the EU would be so long and so expensive.

    That’s why they stick to stink and take no action. Belarus is small enough to bypass, but even bypassing it would create inconvenience and add to flight time (and price).

    Interestingly, all major airlines know who shot down MH17: they don’t fly over Ukraine, but do fly over Russia (you can check this out at many sites like this one https://flightradar.live/en/flight-tracker/)

    Funny, no?

    They won’t say a word, though: hypocrisy is the middle name of the West.

  65. Shortsword says

    There’s actually a larger number of planes above Belarus than over Ukraine right now.

  66. AnonFromTN says

    There’s actually a larger number of planes above Belarus than over Ukraine right now.

    Despite much smaller territory of Belarus. But that’s natural: Ukie bandits killed ~200 people on MH17 and thousands more in Donbass, whereas Luka did not harm anyone in this incident.

    In fact, Luka killed a lot fewer protesters in 2020 that Macron killed Yellow Wests the same year. Simple question is, who is murderous dictator? EU/US hypocrites would say “that’s different”. No surprises there: hypocrites are hypocrites.

  67. I can’t understand why people spend time thinking about Belarus. It’s a 10 million nation of iq 96 Slavs with an aging population and a 1.5 fertility rate. What will be the impact of Belarus in the future?

  68. AnonFromTN says

    What will be the impact of Belarus in the future?

    Not much. But bigger than the impact of Ukraine, with ~25 million people (down from >50 million in 1991). As for IQ of the populace, judging by the quality of traitorous scum they keep voting for, in Ukraine it must be clinically low (<70).

  69. Bashibuzuk says

    As soon as Lukashenko steps down/dies, Belarus will be the last piece of the Intermarium “containment belt” to fall in place cutting EU from RusFed. That’s the only interesting thing about that country…

  70. What will life be like in the containment belt? Let’s see: no transit east-to-west, muddy remote borderlands with no investment, pointless military exercises, young people leaving, 24 by 7 scary propaganda. Sounds like fun.

    On the other hand, it will make Western Europe with its Third Worldization more attractive, sell lots of weapons and justify endless conferences in 5-star hotels. Cui bono?

  71. sudden death says

    The same goes for Kosovo and Crimea. Mentioning Crimea without admitting that Nato did the same in Kosovo is not serious.

    Somehow managed to miss the moment when Albania captured Kosovo and made it own part of the country.

  72. Passer by says

    I can’t understand why people spend time thinking about Belarus. It’s a 10 million nation..

    Because there is a big fight between the previous rulers of the world and a bunch of newcomers.

    What is at stake here is whether the world will be unipolar or multipolar.

    The West says that it should decide what is going on in Belarus, Russia says, no, Russia should decide what is going on in Belarus. Not you. Not a global authority either.

    It is a question about the regionalisation of the world into spheres of influence. It is the death of globalism, this is why it is important issue to many in the elite.

    The larger question is, should globalists rule a certain area, or should the local powers (Russia) rule it. Should Russia have a sphere of influence or not? Should a Russian run pan-region form? Should a Chinese one? Iranian one? Will the US be confined to its own region?

    Russia is one of the most important challengers to globalism. Thus it is in places like Belarus or Ukraine where it will be decided whether the world will be ruled by regional powers or by global authority.

    At stake is the future of the world.

    Lukashenko and Russia basically did a big F you to globalists – they said – we rule here, not you. We will publicly capture and humiliate your agents here, for all the world to see. In your face. We decide what is going on here, not you.

    Which in turn causes a massive triggering in globalist controlled entities (US, EU). They want to take over and rule the world and yet they are declining. This is causing a psychological destabilisation among western elites, and thus lashing outs and aggressive behavior, to try to stop the decline.

    Signs of western decline (others doing whatever they want, especially pissing on the West) is causing the triggerings and hysterias in the West.

  73. AnonFromTN says

    Did you skip geography lessons in school? Naughty boy! Baltic vaudeville countries, however insignificant they are for all concerned, are technically members of the EU. They have borders directly with RusFed.

    Also, have you been in a coma for the last 10 years? FYI, the unfortunate EU is going down faster than its imperial overlords, turning into European Caliphate.

  74. Bashibuzuk says

    Sophia Sapega was the chief editor of the “Black Book of Belarus ” a site where she and her team posted the personal information of the Belarus security services members (Siloviki) and called for their harassment and persecution.

    Interestingly enough, Margarita Simonian (the great RusFed patriot according to AK) has today spoke in defense of Sophia Sapega. I wonder if they are somewhat acquainted (quite possible given that both families are typical RusFed Noviop ultra-rich).

    Even more Interestingly, for those who support both Bat’ka Lukashenko and LDNR, Lukashenko has sent to prison several Belarus citizens who have fought as volunteers on the Russkyi Mir side of the Donbass conflict. OTOH, Protasevich has only been arrested as the enemy of Lukashenko’s regime and has never been under investigation for his involvement with Maidan/Azov.

    Also, Belarus has not recognized Crimea as Russian territory. Nevertheless, Putin will of course still support and finance Belarus as he did all these years.

    With “friends” like these Putin’s RusFed will keep marching from one geopolitical triumph to another. (Sarc.)

  75. Can you explain why some on the Russian right seethe about her so much? While I’m generally not a fan of most of RT’s content I never got why she in particular seems to provoke such a hostile reaction.

    Some of RT’s content isn’t always agreeable to pro-Russian moderates. Two factors are at play. Not all of the RT hired are so pro-Russian, with RT looking to maybe have a limited/imperfect internal overview.

    Magarita can be criticized since she’s the top person. Who hired Liz Wahl? Graham Phillips had some critical comments about RT.

    Some internal intrigue there. Charles Bausman, Mark Sleboda, The Duran chaps come to mind.

  76. Passer by says

    About what i was talking about – from the globalist mouthpiece Washington Post.

    What we are definitely seeing, however, is a rapid erosion of international norms as rogue states find they can do what they want.

    The force-down of the Ryanair flight must be seen in this perspective — not as an isolated incident but as part of a pattern of dictators testing the West with ever-greater brazenness.

    That makes it all the more imperative that the European Union and the United States do more than issue ritualistic denunciations of Lukashenko’s air piracy. Lukashenko must pay such a high price for this aggression that it will give pause to other tyrants and start to mend the tattered fabric of international law.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/23/one-more-international-norm-gets-busted-skies-over-belarus/

    So, globalist mouthpieces are getting triggered because others are starting to do “whatever they want”, and thus the West must lash out violently in order to stop this trend from strengthening.

    The more the West weakens, the more it needs to lash out. Or it will enter mental craziness.

  77. What Simonyan actually wrote:

    Сапегу арестовали на два месяца.
    Ничего не знаю про нее, кроме того что она гражданка России.
    И этого вполне достаточно.
    Верните девушку.

    Simonyan says she “knows nothing about [Sapega], apart from that she is a Russian citizen.” So that is a reasonable position to take.

    Here is what she wrote later:

    Я не знаю, является ли Сапега редактором канала со сливами данных силовиков.
    Может, и является. Может, и не является.
    Пусть доказывают. Докажут – пусть наказывают.


    Lukashenko has sent to prison several Belarus citizens who have fought as volunteers on the Russkyi Mir side of the Donbass conflict.

    I don’t know who you’re arguing against. I am not a supporter of Lukashenko and have often blogged about his anti-Russian policies.

    OTOH, Protasevich has only been arrested as the enemy of Lukashenko’s regime and has never been under investigation for his involvement with Maidan/Azov.

    He was doing PR work for Azov at a minimum. That has been pretty conclusively established in the past two days.

    I wonder if they are somewhat acquainted (quite possible given that both families are typical RusFed Noviop ultra-rich).

    Simonyan comes from a working class family and reportedly spends most of her time in her native Krasnodar, only shuttling in to Moscow for RT reasons, so that would appear highly unlikely.

    For a long time I was mostly indifferent to her, but eventually the fact that she makes certain kinds of people (Atlanticists, crypto-Atlanticists, Neo-Nazis) seethe has made me warm to her.

    There’s also probably some truth to this comment: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/state-terrorism-or-audacious-intel-ops/#comment-4676286

  78. Self-determination has different forms. Whether independent (Kosovo, really?) or rejoin another country is a difference without any legal meaning.

    You are trying to deny the obvious. What else can you do? With facts clear, you can either lie or distract.

  79. Passer by says

    Actually Russia threatened to block European airlines over the SWIFT blockade threat, so i guess it has escalation dominance in that area. That would block Europe – East Asia air traffic. Having the biggest territory in the world gives you some perks.

  80. Passer by says

    Nah, not forever.
    Extended neo al-Andalus, then

    Western Europe would not be majority muslim until 2130, under current immigration trends. It may become majority non-european by 2090, but that includes all types of non-european migrants.

    Some western european countries may become majority non-european at an early date, such as France. Maybe around 2070. The situation there is definitely not good.

    After 2050, Western Europe will certainly be a mess, though. And according to almost all forecasts, it is on a long term relative decline (up to 2100 and probably beyond, based on long term trajectories) regardless of the migrant issue.

  81. Boomthorkell says

    I thought she was rather pretty.

  82. Daniel Chieh says

    Its probably because she’s of Armenian extraction.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margarita_Simonyan

    Simonyan was born in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar, into an Armenian family. Both of her parents are descendants of Armenian refugees from the Ottoman Empire. Her father’s family, originally from Trabzon, settled in Crimea during the Armenian Genocide of 1915.

  83. Bashibuzuk says

    I don’t know who you’re arguing against. I am not a supporter of Lukashenko and have often blogged about his anti-Russian policies.

    I am reminding those who are celebrating the glorious feat of the Potato Dictator of the true state of affairs in RusFed / Belarus relationship. Who’s the Top and who’s the Bottom so to speak.

    BTW, another thing to keep in mind is how Bat’ka bitch-slapped the RusFed in the 2013 Uralkalyi – Belaruskalyi spat when the Belarus KGB arrested Baumgartner in Minsk and attempted a kidnapping of Samoylov on the Leningrad train station in Moscow (I am not kidding here).

    28 октября 2013 г. «Служба безопасности “Уралкалия” взяла под охрану всех сотрудников компании, к которым проявляют оперативный интерес белорусские власти, пишет газета “Известия”. Поводом к этому послужила захватывающая история с попыткой задержания бывшего топ-менеджера ЗАО “Белорусская калийная компания” (БКК) Дмитрия Самойлова, произошедшая на прошлой неделе на Ленинградском вокзале.

    Бизнесмен собирался отправиться из Москвы в Петербург, когда в его вагон вошли четверо оперативников в штатском, предъявили удостоверения сотрудников КГБ Белоруссии и потребовали отправиться к следователю в Минск.

    Д.Самойлов не стал сопротивляться и вышел на улицу, однако на перроне, проходя мимо наряда полиции, он закричал, что его похищают. Сотрудники МВД вмешались в ситуацию и задержали пять человек, после чего доставили их в отделение для разбирательства. Чекисты по неизвестной причине вскоре были отпущены, как и сам бизнесмен. Официальных разъяснений со стороны КГБ Белоруссии не последовало.

    Другие менеджеры БКК, россияне Константин Солодовников и Игорь Евстратов, также пожаловались на слежку. В итоге всех потенциальных участников “калийного дела” пришлось взять под охрану. Источники “Известий” в компании “Уралкалий” рассказали, что оценивают вероятность задержания сотрудников как высокую. В Москве КГБ Белоруссии установил круглосуточные посты и слежку за несколькими менеджерами “Уралкалия”.

    https://pioneer-lj.livejournal.com/1561605.html

    I have to admit that the former Kolkhoz director, who is now the Potato Caudilio in the White Rus has some 2 megaton cojones.

    Simonyan comes from a working class family

    Sure, same as Mishustin, they all come from “working class families “…

  84. I do not think that the recent event serves Lukashenko providing that Lukashenko, Belarus oligarchs and a part of Belarus KGB prefers to have their own state rather than to be absorbed by Russia. Anti-Belarus stance after the event on the part of EU and US weakens the hand of the Potato Caudilio in his game with Putin. The fact that the event took place indicates that the pro-Russia faction in Belarus has more influence and penetration than Lukashenko would like to allow.

    I think that the analogy of Belgium in the 19th century could serve as an optimistic scenario for the future of Belarus. Russia is not the Netherlands and EU is not France of 19th century but Belarus could become Belgium if the EU showed more flexibility and open mindedness. They should float an idea that must be whispered to Lukashenko ear by some Iago in his retinue that EU is willing to accept him crowning himself as the King of Serenissima Res Publica Ruthenae Album.

  85. It is enough to reach 20-25% of population to have power – be untouchable, get more benefits, allowed to bring “families”, deference in the media and culture, etc… Especially if that 20-25% is concentrated in big cities and is a plurality among young people.

    West is basically there, maybe in 5-10 years. They will not regain control of their main cities, they will not dare discuss it in the media, and they can no longer even slow down the flow. They are done, you can put a fork in it.

  86. …whispered to Lukashenko ear by some Iago in his retinue

    Iago ended up in a torture chamber. And Luka doesn’t strike me as Othello-type, he drives tractors not ships.

    But you are right that now it is for all marbles for Belarus: West or Russia, no more sitting on the fence. And in this case Russia is in a better position. I think West will have to escalate more…

  87. Pure, unadulterated hypocrisy.
    R.C.

  88. Coconuts says

    So, globalist mouthpieces are getting triggered because others are starting to do “whatever they want”, and thus the West must lash out violently in order to stop this trend from strengthening.

    Articles like this are partly intended to shore up support for projections of power among Western populations themselves. All the things that are going on internally with Wokeness and Trump related derangement have distracted people from foreign affairs, especially when they have no clear idea of where the country is or who lives there.

  89. Coconuts says

    They should float an idea that must be whispered to Lukashenko ear by some Iago in his retinue that EU is willing to accept him crowning himself as the King of Serenissima Res Publica Ruthenae Album.

    Monarchy is one of the new avant-garde trends in Western politics, obviously because it is one of the sexiest forms of politics.

  90. AnonfromTN says

    Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Vasilets suggested a great idea for Luka: offer an exchange of Protasevych, whom Western propaganda calls “journalist”, for a journalist Assange. The West won’t agree, and would look real bad.

  91. Boomthorkell says

    Could be a good chant.

    I say throw in Narva too, but I’m a greedy “culture sphere” maximalist\perfectionist.

  92. Shortsword says

    Wouldn’t be effective. Would just result in Assange being smeared as a Russian agent.

  93. Felix Keverich says

    Kosovo is de-facto under NATO occupation since 1999, and subsists on Western aid, so perhaps South Ossetia is a better analogy. The point is NATO’s intervention in Yugoslavia was the first time since WW2 when European borders were redrawn by force, setting up a precendent.

  94. Mint!

  95. Lol, is this what you are eyeing?

    Prime Minister Albin Kuri: “I would vote to unify Albania and Kosovo”

    https://www.euronews.com/2021/02/16/i-would-vote-to-unify-albania-and-kosovo-election-winner-albin-kurti-tells-euronews

    Some excerpts from the mouth of this so-called “leftist nationalist” individual:

    No, we are not going to get vaccines from Serbia, which gets vaccines from Russia and China. Both in terms of values and interests, our orientation has always been towards the West.
    […]
    We don’t want to replace the EU and US with any eastern non-democratic powers because it has been proven that there is no certainty regarding quality, on the one hand, and on the other hand, there are always strings attached in the form of geopolitical games.
    […]
    I think that they [Serbia] should move away from the Russian Federation and from China and they should try to do it as fast as possible. They have to liberate themselves from Kosovo. We liberated Kosovo from Serbia. I think that Serbia should liberate itself from Kosovo.
    […]
    So I believe that full independence implies also, independence from independence, so we could join a federation with Albania or an EU federation.
    […]
    Two referendums in the future could solve this, in Albania and Kosovo […] The constitution would have to be changed first […]
    […]
    [How would you vote in that referendum?] I think I would vote yes. Yes.


    Searching for the above article I stumbled upon another reminder of the importance of demographics and fertility (if you want to trust the Norwegian author, Helge Brunborg, apparently involved in Hague trials against people of former Yugoslavia), 2002:

    https://ibin.co/639yENBy21jw.jpg

    The relatively high growth of the Albanian population, more than 2 per cent per year, is primarily due to a large surplus of births over deaths. This growth is consistent with the demographic development of a population that has not completed the demographic transition, i.e. it has a relatively high but declining fertility level and a relatively low but still declining mortality level.

    The [TFR] for Kosovo […] declined from about 6.5 in 1961 to 3.5 in 1991 and was assumed to be 3.15-3.25 for the period 1991-1996 in the FSO population projections for 1991-2021. […] This is about twice the level of TFR assumed for Central Serbia and Vojvodina, 1.63-1.77, which is at the current Western European level. […] The projections publication shows a youthful population pyramid for Kosovo, which is an indication of high but declining fertility in the last two decades (Federal Statistical Office and University of Belgrade 1996).

    https://ibin.co/63A1AOcqEkcv.jpg

    Finally, I conclude that the major reason for the fast population growth has been the elevated fertility of the Kosovo Albanian population as compared to the Serb and other population groups, but the Albanian fertility is declining rapidly, however, just as in the rest of Europe.

    https://www.icty.org/x/file/About/OTP/War_Demographics/en/milosevic_kosovo_020814.pdf

  96. Lmao, like the man wasn’t already so smeared to hell and back.

  97. AnonFromTN says

    There are numerous differences between Kosovo and Crimea. Here are just a few. One, there was a referendum in Crimea, whereas no referendum ever took place in Kosovo. Two, nobody was killed in Crimea, in sharp contrast to Kosovo. Three, >80% of Ukrainian military stationed in Crimea switched sides and joined Russian army. Nothing even remotely similar happened in Kosovo. Four, NATO brought to power in Kosovo known criminal bosses (guilty of many crimes, including drug trafficking and murder of Serbs for the sake of dismemberment with subsequent illegal sale of organs), whereas pro-Russian Crimean leadership is not known to be involved in criminal activities. Five (maybe that’s the consequence of four), about a third of Kosovo residents has already run away from that “paradise” after “independence”, whereas the population of Crimea increased after 2014, partly due to return of thousands that fled to Ukraine in 2014.

    Western MSM tie themselves in knots to pretend that they believe the official Western narrative. In 2015 BBC reported on “celebration of the year of occupation”, actually showing true pics of dressed up families with children celebrating peaceful escape of Crimea from Ukrainian madhouse.

  98. Even Kosovo Albanians running away after euphoric “independence ” , when they got sick Serbia is only option but lot of ” patriots ” left to for western Europe or USA

  99. Mike_from_Russia says
  100. More Information on Protasevych’s involvement in the Donbas. He was part of a Pahonia platoon of Belarusians. Lukashenko allegedly said to the parliamentarians of Belarus that Protasevych is guilty of war crimes committed in the Donbas.

    https://insomniacresurrected.com/2021/05/23/nexta-founder-roman-protasevych-arrested-in-minsk/

    There are more photos of this Rambo. His code name was Kim “Kardashian”

  101. Petrov & Boshirov are becoming a cultural icon.

  102. Yes, yes, that is all true. BUT the biggest difference is that when I steal your cow it is good, when you steal my cow it’s bad.

    That is the timeless Anglo logic; it got them pretty far, there are many fools in the world. Today they could be running out of runway, but as long as people like Sudden Death can be confused there is hope. (I hear that NY is giving people who vaccinate a burger-and-shake…there is no shortage of fools in the world.)

  103. AnonfromTN says

    Fact one. After Air France got an order from the French government to stop flying over Belarus, its today’s flight AF1154 was delayed until tomorrow.

    Fact two. During French protests at least 9 protesters were killed, 22 protesters lost an eye, 5 had their hands blown off, and 154 were otherwise seriously injured.

    Fact three. A lot fewer people were killed or injured in Belarus protests.

    Question: who should teach who observe human rights?

  104. The Based Sultan Erdogan avenged the Siege of Vienna.

    Turkey’s insistence on a watered-down text upset a number of allies, particularly Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, which had pushed for tougher wording, the diplomats said.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-turkey-pushed-nato-allies-into-softening-outrage-over-belarus-plane-2021-05-27/

  105. Bashibuzuk says
  106. gandydancer says

    This business of forcing civilian airliners to land goes back a lot further than 2013. It happened to an Achille Lauro hijackers, in 1985.