Sweden: Can’t Decline in PISA Scores If You Don’t Test!

When the results of PISA 2018 were unveiled, there was significant skepticism about the much improved results from Sweden, based on the unimpressive coverage ratio (86%, vs. 99% in Germany) and large share of pupils excluded on account of being “new arrivals” (11%, vs. 0.4% in Germany)

Expressen reports: Sweden’s PISA success is based on false figures (Google Translate):

When the PISA results were presented in December 2019, Education Minister Anna Ekström called it “a day of joy”.

“This is a message of strength, Swedish schools are strong,” Ekström said.

Swedish 15-year-olds performed better than in the previous test in all three subjects – reading comprehension, mathematics and science – and climbed to the top of the international ranking.

At the same time, critical voices were raised against Sweden having the highest so-called “exclusion rate” in the entire world. After deciding who would write the exam, eleven percent of the students were removed from the sample, either because of disability or because they were newly arrived with poor language skills to participate.

The Express can now show how a large number of foreign students were wrongly eliminated from writing the exam, in violation of the OECD rules. And that the National Agency for Education has made serious miscalculations in its attempt to map the extent of the error.

According to their calculations, adjusting for these unsanctioned exemptions would wipe out all the improvements, and then some, observed since the 2015 assessment.

I suppose fiddling with the numbers is one way to outrun Third World immigration-driven dysgenics.

Germany, at least, was conscientious about testing everyone:

In Germany, the country in the EU after Sweden that granted the most per capita residence permit to asylum seekers during the refugee crisis, only 0.4 percent of the students in PISA 2018 were removed because they were newly arrived.

The good news, at least, is that the 2015 numbers – which were still a significant improvement from the 2012 nadir – can be considered reliable:

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.

 

Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.

 

Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.

Comments

  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. “fiddling with the numbers” must be a Swedish thing – Covid-19.

  3. Europe Europa says

    I find it surprising how well the UK scores on Mathematics and Science in the PISA tests internationally speaking, considering popular belief here is that this country is woefully deficient in those areas.

    I’ve lost count of the amount of British employers I’ve heard complain that their new employees can’t even do basic arithmetic. The general perception here is that the state education system lacks rigour and is generally perceived to be poor compared to most other countries.

  4. Pericles says

    Lol, the migrants must have tested ‘off the charts!’ It just wasn’t fair to include them.

  5. jbwilson24 says

    They will admit this was a mistake and then switch to American style fiddling: having the teachers frantically edit the tests before they are scored. Paying off senior administrators to ‘lose’ batches of tests and fill in faulty information. The sort of tricks that are common in black areas of the USA.

    It won’t help. Eventually the clock will run out when the third world population is 50% of the student body and Sweden’s schools devolve into dysfunctional youth detention centers.

  6. reiner Tor says

    Yeah, Covid-19 was my first thought, too.

  7. Swedish Family says

    Always thought our high exclusion rate looked fishy as hell, so I’m not at all surprised. More newsworthy here is that the very mainstream and very globalist rag Expressen reports on this with such frankness. This is good news for Swedish politics, I think.

  8. Astuteobservor II says

    Damn. So right. Lol.

  9. sudden death says

    btw, what happened with Sweden “recovered” and “active” cases numbers? Last time I looked several weeks ago, their finished cases mortality rates were absolutely horrible, like 47% dead, 53% recovered, even Belgium, which was counting corona dead even without testing, had better rates. Surprisingly or not, but now such data has dissapeared about Sweden at worldometer, lol 🙂 idk, maybe it should not be suspicious as it looks like the same unclear mess is happening with Spain, UK and Netherlands too, regarding finished cases data at worldometer, did they all just stop counting that?

  10. There are some strange things about Swedish data. I was bringing this up several times. I check the official Swedish site:

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

    where today you can see daily deaths graph:

    https://i.ibb.co/2swPSq3/Sweden-Daily-D.png

    and compare it with daily deaths graph form May 18

    https://i.ibb.co/rdDRJj3/Sweden19.png

    You will notice that they keep adding data with a delay but in such way that always the last several days are very low so the overall picture is as if the dying was about to end. It seems as if they were sculpting the graph to look nice and optimistic all the time. The sculpting is retroactive going back 2-3 weeks.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/how-high-is-herd-immunity-level/#comment-3905202

  11. Europe Europa says

    Death toll in the UK is now much higher than even Italy, and yet hardly a mention in the international media. When it was Italy and Spain that had the highest death tolls it was mass hysteria in the global media, yet when the UK overtook which was at least a month ago now there was no mention of it.

    Just goes to show how much time foreigners have for the British I guess, not much.

  12. “Just goes to show how much time foreigners have for the British I guess, not much.” – Or other way around. English language media attention to Italy or Spain was not because of humanitarian concerns. There was an element of gloating that what was happening in Italy would not happen to them because they are so much better than Italians and Spaniards. Do you remember the tone of comments here by LondonBob? Haven’t seen him recently. How the Covid-19 is being exploited in terms of propaganda vis-a-vis the looming conflict with China must be looked at. Perhaps not everybody wants to go to war with China. For them and for the Chinese the protests-riots-lootings are godsend.

    Do numbers per capita tell the whole story? You also need to take into account the population density or even better the effective population density. Then you will see that the biggest outlier is Sweden followed by Ireland. And UK and Italy would be about 0.75 St.Dev. above median among 30 European countries while Sweden is 4 St.Dev. above median. Countries that are right on the median are Austria, Slovenia, Portugal and Norway as s of May 17. I will look at more recent data and see if there are significant changes. I have notice that recently Sweden overtook France in deaths per capita.

  13. Hyperborean says

    Death toll in the UK is now much higher than even Italy, and yet hardly a mention in the international media. When it was Italy and Spain that had the highest death tolls it was mass hysteria in the global media, yet when the UK overtook which was at least a month ago now there was no mention of it.

    Given your general comment history, if they did focus on the UK’s bad news, wouldn’t you just claim it was intended to attack Britain? I would have thought you’d be happy with less attention from the Eye of Sauron.

  14. jimmyriddle says

    It takes time for deaths to be reported.

  15. jimmyriddle says

    They simply stopped collecting satistics on the ethnicity of criminals when the results were embarrassing.

    It’s a rather elegant expedient – worthy of Ikea.

  16. Its just part of the globalist scheme.
    Children who learn basic math and gramma, what they still do in Africa and Latin America, easily reveal the fake adults and demagogues.

  17. Amerimutt Golems says

    It won’t help. Eventually the clock will run out when the third world population is 50% of the student body and Sweden’s schools devolve into dysfunctional youth detention centers.

    Foreign-born residents make up one out of every three in Malmö, the third-largest city. In tandem nearly half of the population is under the age of 35.

  18. Amerimutt Golems says

    Given your general comment history, if they did focus on the UK’s bad news, wouldn’t you just claim it was intended to attack Britain?

    Someone living in a virtual police state where just writing “all lives matter” is a so-called hate crime is more worried about what outsiders think about his or her country.

    Stu Peters: Manx Radio host suspended over Black Lives Matter comments
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-52936980