Latest contribution to the US-Russia.org Expert Discussion Panel on the question of which US Presidential candidate is best able to meet the challenges ahead: When predicting election outcomes, I prefer to listen to those who put their money where their mouths are. As of the time of writing, the Intrade predictions market gives a 66% implied […]
Why Obama Will Sooner Win
This Post about Politics,
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was written by Anatoly Karlin for AK's Blog on August 12, 2012 .No Comments
Ten months ago I bet a symbolic $10 on a Republican win. According to elections models and the bookies, it’s more likely than not that I’ve lost it. Not that I’m saddened by this development of course. (That said, if the economy slumps sharply in Q3, then a Romney win becomes entirely possible).
Why Obama Will Almost Certainly Lose
This Post about Politics,
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was written by Anatoly Karlin for AK's Blog on October 7, 2011 .46 Comments
And ironically, despite my blog’s focus, to date my US predictions have been more accurate than my Russian ones. Obama to become President? Check. Republicans to win 2010 mid-terms? Check. The emergence of “a new party, a new politics”, with “the feds [facing] challenges from the far-left and the far-right”? Check (Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street). Dammit, […]
Congratulations, America!
This Post about Politics,
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was written by Anatoly Karlin for AK's Blog on November 4, 2008 .1 Comment
As I predicted he would, Obama has won overwhelmingly. As I argued, this was the best possible outcome for America – Obama understands the importance of investing heavily in renewable energy and new infrastructure, and would withdraw from the financially ruinous Iraq adventure. Just by his election, he has bolstered America’s battered image around the […]
Why Obama Will Almost Certainly Win
This Post about Politics,
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was written by Anatoly Karlin for AK's Blog on July 17, 2008 .No Comments
Read these two posts by Krugman at Conscience of a Liberal, here and here. 1. A looming recession, after seven years of stagnation in the US median wage, means that the likelihood of positive income growth this year is very small. Even assuming it’s 0% would mean that the incumbent party’s nominee, McCain, can be […]
The People Speak: Poll #1 Results, US Presidential Candidates
This Post about Politics,
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was written by Anatoly Karlin for Da Russophile on March 19, 2008 .4 Comments
These are the results of our first poll (running from January 11 to March 19). I am pleased to see that the number of people thinking it’s brilliant decisively outnumber those who think it should be deleted. (So I’ll remain on the blogosphere.) Otherwise, don’t bother with digressions, aesthetics or more features, but concentrate more […]
