Regathering of the Russian Lands

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , was written by for on February 16, 2022 .81 Comments

The logical case for why war a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent.

Ukraine Predictions

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , was written by for on January 1, 2015 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2017/12/31): Geopolitically, 2015 will be crunch time for the Poroshenko regime. Short of massive Western support, a fiscal crisis is virtually certain. How will Poroshenko deal with it? A new assault against Novorossiya can’t be excluded; military spending is rising to 5% of GDP. That’s higher than any industrialized nation bar Israel. […]

Islamic State Rises

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , was written by for on June 12, 2014 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/15): Admit I was surprised to see ISIS take over a major Iraqi city as the Iraqi Army fled. I realize the corruption there is gargantuan, but surely at least some of the $18 billion that it spends yearly on its military must have gone somewhere useful? Anyhow, while Mosul and Tikrit might have […]

Russia’s Game Plan in Donbass

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , , was written by for on April 14, 2014 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): Quick piece I scribbled off for RIA: First off, an elementary observation: Donbass is not Crimea. Crimea features prominently in Russia’s historical memory, having undergone two epic sieges over two centuries. It was only given over to Ukraine as a pure formality, to mark 300 years since the Treaty of Pereyaslav that was […]

Translation: Russia’s Growth Rate may Plummet in the Next Decade

This about Economy, tagged , , was written by for on May 24, 2013 .No Comments

According to several experts, Russia may be facing a period of protracted low growth rates now that its GDP per capita has recently exceeded $16,000. Vedomosti’s Olga Kuvshinova has the details. Russia may Experience Minimal Growth in the Next 10 Years A variety of reasons are brought up to explain the Russian economy’s slowdown to […]

The Russian Cross Becomes A Hexagon

This , about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for on January 30, 2013 .31 Comments

One of the standard memes about Russia’s demographic trajectory was the “Russian Cross.” While at the literal level it described the shape of the country’s birth rate and death rate trajectories, a major reason why it entered the discourse was surely because it also evoked the foreboding of the grave. But this period now appears […]

Da Russophile’s Predictions For 2013

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , was written by for on January 5, 2013 .33 Comments

I just remembered I’d made some in 2012. It’s time to see how they went, plus make predictions for the coming year. Of course I failed to predict the biggest thing of them all: The hacking that made me throw in the towel on Sublime Oblivion (remember that?), but with the silver lining that I […]

Blast From The Past: What Jim Rogers Said About Russia In 2003

This about Economy, tagged , , , , was written by for on September 21, 2012 .4 Comments

This guy isn’t as clear-headed as Eric Kraus, is he? But does have company in the form of Andrew Miller, Jeffrey Tailer, “Streetwise Professor”, and Ed Lucas. H/t Mark Adomanis. —– Original Message —–  From: Dmitry Alimov  To: [email protected]  Sent: Friday, September 12, 2003 11:28 PM  Subject: Conversation with Jim Rogers – HILARIOUS Jim Rogers, a famous international investor […]

Why Obama Will Sooner Win

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for on August 12, 2012 .No Comments

Ten months ago I bet a symbolic $10 on a Republican win. According to elections models and the bookies, it’s more likely than not that I’ve lost it. Not that I’m saddened by this development of course. (That said, if the economy slumps sharply in Q3, then a Romney win becomes entirely possible).

Blast From The Past: What Andrew Miller Predicted About Russia In 2000

This about Media, tagged , , , was written by for on May 29, 2012 .54 Comments

This guy Andrew Miller used to be The Economist’s Moscow correspondent. This is his prediction from 2000. I also imagine he’d get on splendidly with K.F./Keif. No further comment is necessary. (h/t Patrick Armstrong) JRL 4331 #9 From: “andrew miller” Subject: The Gathering Storm Date: Sun, 28 May 2000 Topic: The Gathering Storm Title: The […]

List Of Estimates On Fraud In Russia’s 2012 Presidential Elections

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 21, 2012 .1 Comment

This post is a follow-up to a similar one for the 2011 Duma elections. It contains an extensive list of blogger, pundit and “expert” opinions on the extent of fraud in the 2011 Duma elections. Interspersed among these opinions and analyses are results from federal opinion polls, election monitors, and other evidence. In general, it seems we can […]

Winners Of The Election Predictions Contest

This about Politics, tagged , , , was written by for on March 5, 2012 .10 Comments

Before the 2012 Russian Presidential elections, 23 particularly courageous (or foolhardy?) netizens and Russia watchers participated in a contest on this blog to predict its results for the chance of eternal glory and a free S/O T-Shirt. The winner is the person with the least aggregate error, i.e. the sum of the absolute discrepancies between his […]