Regathering of the Russian Lands
The logical case for why war a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent.
Geopolitics
Predictions
Geopolitics
Ukraine Predictions
Reprinted from Facebook (2017/12/31): Geopolitically, 2015 will be crunch time for the Poroshenko regime. Short of massive Western support, a fiscal crisis is virtually certain. How will Poroshenko deal with it? A new assault against Novorossiya can’t be excluded; military spending is rising to 5% of GDP. That’s higher than any industrialized nation bar Israel.
Geopolitics
Islamic State Rises
Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/15): Admit I was surprised to see ISIS take over a major Iraqi city as the Iraqi Army fled. I realize the corruption there is gargantuan, but surely at least some of the $18 billion that it spends yearly on its military must have gone somewhere useful? Anyhow, while Mosul and Tikrit might have
Geopolitics
Russia’s Game Plan in Donbass
Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): Quick piece I scribbled off for RIA: First off, an elementary observation: Donbass is not Crimea. Crimea features prominently in Russia’s historical memory, having undergone two epic sieges over two centuries. It was only given over to Ukraine as a pure formality, to mark 300 years since the Treaty of Pereyaslav that was
Economy
Translation: Russia’s Growth Rate may Plummet in the Next Decade
According to several experts, Russia may be facing a period of protracted low growth rates now that its GDP per capita has recently exceeded $16,000. Vedomosti’s Olga Kuvshinova has the details. Russia may Experience Minimal Growth in the Next 10 Years A variety of reasons are brought up to explain the Russian economy’s slowdown to
Demographics
The Russian Cross Becomes A Hexagon
One of the standard memes about Russia’s demographic trajectory was the “Russian Cross.” While at the literal level it described the shape of the country’s birth rate and death rate trajectories, a major reason why it entered the discourse was surely because it also evoked the foreboding of the grave. But this period now appears
Geopolitics
Da Russophile’s Predictions For 2013
I just remembered I’d made some in 2012. It’s time to see how they went, plus make predictions for the coming year. Of course I failed to predict the biggest thing of them all: The hacking that made me throw in the towel on Sublime Oblivion (remember that?), but with the silver lining that I
Economy
Blast From The Past: What Jim Rogers Said About Russia In 2003
This guy isn’t as clear-headed as Eric Kraus, is he? But does have company in the form of Andrew Miller, Jeffrey Tailer, “Streetwise Professor”, and Ed Lucas. H/t Mark Adomanis. —– Original Message —– From: Dmitry Alimov To: [email protected] Sent: Friday, September 12, 2003 11:28 PM Subject: Conversation with Jim Rogers – HILARIOUS Jim Rogers, a famous international investor
Politics
Why Obama Will Sooner Win
Ten months ago I bet a symbolic $10 on a Republican win. According to elections models and the bookies, it’s more likely than not that I’ve lost it. Not that I’m saddened by this development of course. (That said, if the economy slumps sharply in Q3, then a Romney win becomes entirely possible).
Media
Blast From The Past: What Andrew Miller Predicted About Russia In 2000
This guy Andrew Miller used to be The Economist’s Moscow correspondent. This is his prediction from 2000. I also imagine he’d get on splendidly with K.F./Keif. No further comment is necessary. (h/t Patrick Armstrong) JRL 4331 #9 From: “andrew miller” Subject: The Gathering Storm Date: Sun, 28 May 2000 Topic: The Gathering Storm Title: The
Politics
List Of Estimates On Fraud In Russia’s 2012 Presidential Elections
This post is a follow-up to a similar one for the 2011 Duma elections. It contains an extensive list of blogger, pundit and “expert” opinions on the extent of fraud in the 2011 Duma elections. Interspersed among these opinions and analyses are results from federal opinion polls, election monitors, and other evidence. In general, it seems we can
Politics
Winners Of The Election Predictions Contest
Before the 2012 Russian Presidential elections, 23 particularly courageous (or foolhardy?) netizens and Russia watchers participated in a contest on this blog to predict its results for the chance of eternal glory and a free S/O T-Shirt. The winner is the person with the least aggregate error, i.e. the sum of the absolute discrepancies between his
Politics
Predict The Results Of The 2012 Russian Presidential Election
Inspired by Kireev’s similar posts in Russian, I’m asking S/O readers to predict (1) The official results of the elections, and (2) The actual, i.e. non-falsified, results. Please give them to one decimal point, and include all the five candidates as well as the share of invalid votes. They will be displayed in the table
Politics
New Year Special: 2012 Predictions
It’s been a great year! To recap, in rough chronological order, 2011 saw: The most popular post (with 562 comments and counting; granted, most of them consisting of Indians and Pakistanis flaming each other); Visualizing the Kremlin Clans (joint project with Kevin Rothrock of A Good Treaty); my National Comparisons between life in Russia, Britain,
Futurism
Russia Demographic Update VII
It is now increasingly evident that Russia’s population has settled on a small but decidedly firm upwards growth trend. I have been vindicated. According to the latest data, in the first eight months of the year births fell by 1.4% (12.5/1000 to 12.3/1000) and deaths fell by 6.2% (from 14.6/1000 to 13.7/1000) relative to the