Predict The Results Of The 2012 Russian Presidential Election

This about Politics, tagged , , , was written by for on March 2, 2012 .52 Comments

Inspired by Kireev’s similar posts in Russian, I’m asking S/O readers to predict (1) The official results of the elections, and (2) The actual, i.e. non-falsified, results. Please give them to one decimal point, and include all the five candidates as well as the share of invalid votes. They will be displayed in the table […]

New Year Special: 2012 Predictions

This about Politics, tagged , , was written by for on January 3, 2012 .215 Comments

It’s been a great year! To recap, in rough chronological order, 2011 saw: The most popular post (with 562 comments and counting; granted, most of them consisting of Indians and Pakistanis flaming each other); Visualizing the Kremlin Clans (joint project with Kevin Rothrock of A Good Treaty); my National Comparisons between life in Russia, Britain, […]

Russia Demographic Update VII

This about Futurism, tagged , , , was written by for on October 24, 2011 .63 Comments

It is now increasingly evident that Russia’s population has settled on a small but decidedly firm upwards growth trend. I have been vindicated. According to the latest data, in the first eight months of the year births fell by 1.4% (12.5/1000 to 12.3/1000) and deaths fell by 6.2% (from 14.6/1000 to 13.7/1000) relative to the […]

Why Obama Will Almost Certainly Lose

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for on October 7, 2011 .46 Comments

And ironically, despite my blog’s focus, to date my US predictions have been more accurate than my Russian ones. Obama to become President? Check. Republicans to win 2010 mid-terms? Check. The emergence of “a new party, a new politics”, with “the feds [facing] challenges from the far-left and the far-right”? Check (Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street). Dammit, […]

But Always, A Hero Comes Home

This about Politics, tagged , , , was written by for on September 24, 2011 .154 Comments

The King returns. As this is breaking news, please feel free to discuss this breaking news while I write up a more substantive post. In summary: (1) I was 75% wrong. (I gave Putin a 25% of returning to the PM; I thought the likeliest scenario would be for DAM to continue). (2) That said, […]

Future Superpowers – The World To 2100

This about Futurism, tagged , , was written by for on June 27, 2011 .140 Comments

Most projections of future trends in national power fail to appreciate the importance of three crucial factors: (1) the declining EROEI of energy resources (including, but not limited to, “peak oil”); (2) the importance of human capital to economic growth, especially in developing countries’ attempts to “catch up” to the advanced world; and (3) the impacts of […]

On The Necessity Of Subjecting Kremlinologists (And Social Scientists) To Market Discipline

This about Politics, tagged , , , was written by for on June 11, 2011 .13 Comments

I have gone on record with the following odds on Russia’s next President: Medvedev – 70%, Putin – 25%, Other – 5%. The first betting site to offer odds on the Russian Presidential election has other ideas. As of June 2011, the British online gambling site Stan James is offering the following odds: Putin 4/7, Medvedev 11/8, […]

Russia Demographic Update VI

This about Demographics, tagged , , , was written by for on June 3, 2011 .16 Comments

As we’re now approaching mid-2011, I suppose its time to give my traditional update on Russia’s demography. So here’s the lay-down: 1. In February, I predicted a population decline of c. 50,000 in 2010 (after a 23,000 rise in 2009). This was due to the excess deaths of the Great Russian Heatwave of 2010, and […]

In Which La Russophobe Interviews The Russophile Sociopath Blogging At Sublime Oblivion

This about Politics, tagged , , , , , , , , was written by for on May 27, 2011 .22 Comments

Two weeks ago, I received a Facebook message from Kim Zigfeld, she of the infamous La Russophobe, asking me if I was interested in an interview with her. It didn’t take long for me to come to the wrong decision! And so commenced our interview. It was a long grind. After ceaseless goings back and forth, […]

Interview with Craig Willy (Letters from Europe)

This about Politics, tagged , , , , , , was written by for on May 16, 2011 .4 Comments

After a year long hiatus from interviewing Russia watchers, I decided it was time to get back in the game. As it happens, my attention first fell on a Europe blogger – and not just any incisive, counter-intuitive scribbler whose intellect and analytical acumen is matched only by the number of themes he is prepared to expound […]

Decade Forecast: The Downsizing Of Pax Americana

This about Futurism, tagged , , , , , , , was written by for on May 14, 2011 .14 Comments

This is the first post in a series of three, in which I will analyze the major trends that will define the next ten years and their likely impacts on global regions. To put these forecasts into context, I must first describe the narrative through which I view the history of the post-WW2 era (the […]

New Year Special, Part 2: 2011 Predictions

This about Politics, tagged , , was written by for on January 3, 2011 .9 Comments

Carrying on from yesterday’s 2010 in Review, I’ll now lay out my predictions for this year and see how well last year’s stacked up to reality. (1) Last year, I wrote: “World economy continues an anemic recovery, though there are significant risks to the downside.” Today I’d repeat this, but add that the risks have […]