In this essay, I analyze three major areas of concern about the current Russian economy – the debt burden, balance of payments and future fiscal sustainability. Although on paper Russia is comfortably solvent, rolling over debt has been problematic for Russia Inc. because of the shutdown of its traditional financing mechanisms, cheap American credit and […]
Russia Economic Crisis III: On the Importance of Self-Sufficiency in Liquids
This Post about Economy,
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was written by Anatoly Karlin for Da Russophile on December 7, 2008 .4 Comments
Congratulations, America!
This Post about Politics,
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was written by Anatoly Karlin for AK's Blog on November 4, 2008 .1 Comment
As I predicted he would, Obama has won overwhelmingly. As I argued, this was the best possible outcome for America – Obama understands the importance of investing heavily in renewable energy and new infrastructure, and would withdraw from the financially ruinous Iraq adventure. Just by his election, he has bolstered America’s battered image around the […]
Demography III – Faces of the Future
This Featured Post about Demographics,
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was written by Anatoly Karlin for Da Russophile on July 21, 2008 .17 Comments
I developed a model on Russia’s future demographic development in Matlab. First, I will describe (non-mathematically) the essentials of how it works; then I will present a range of different possible scenarios. Our data is sourced from Rosstat and the Human Mortality Database. Demography is a social science, and as such it is impossible to […]
Why Obama Will Almost Certainly Win
This Post about Politics,
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was written by Anatoly Karlin for AK's Blog on July 17, 2008 .No Comments
Read these two posts by Krugman at Conscience of a Liberal, here and here. 1. A looming recession, after seven years of stagnation in the US median wage, means that the likelihood of positive income growth this year is very small. Even assuming it’s 0% would mean that the incumbent party’s nominee, McCain, can be […]
