The Z of History: 13 Months of Commentary

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 10, 2023 .No Comments

In this podcast with Noah Carl, I make the case that a prolonged stalemate is programmed, assuming continued Russian mobilization prevents Ukrainian victory, and the materiel balance doesn’t shift sharply to either party.

Russia’s Nationalist Turn

This , about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for on September 28, 2021 .770 Comments

How Putin Created the Russian National State

In the capstone to my Russia watching career, I argue that late Putinism has adopted the Russian nationalist program near wholesale. Or so it seemed at the time…

282 за Оскорбление Чувств Украинского Народа

This about Politics, tagged , , , , , was written by for on May 3, 2018 .No Comments

Идет 2018 год: h/t арчибальд

Русские Своих не Бросают!

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , , , was written by for on March 23, 2017 .No Comments

Правда, нельзя исключить, что его замочил какой-то особо свидомый – ведь Вороненков сразу же встроился в майданную элитку, должен был получить паспорт УССР через два дня. Тем временем, русские “полезные идиоты”, которые приехали воевать за Украину, давно были брошены на произвол судьбы. PS. Последние новости: Убийца Вороненкова оказался АТОшником. Видимо, “особо свидомый” вариант оказался правильным, а […]

Новотожероссияне 2016

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 21, 2017 .No Comments

По данным миграционной статистике МВД РФ, в 2016 году обладателями российского паспорта стали 265,319 человек. По душевому расчету, граждане Таджикистана получили больше российских паспортов (0.27% от населения), чем граждане Украины (0.24%). Это не смотря на то, что на территории ЛДНР – война и блокада, тем временем в самой Украины – три года насильственной украинизации, продолжающейся до сих пор. Очевидно, […]

Ukraine Predictions

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , was written by for on January 1, 2015 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2017/12/31): Geopolitically, 2015 will be crunch time for the Poroshenko regime. Short of massive Western support, a fiscal crisis is virtually certain. How will Poroshenko deal with it? A new assault against Novorossiya can’t be excluded; military spending is rising to 5% of GDP. That’s higher than any industrialized nation bar Israel. […]

Was MH17 Terrorism?

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , , was written by for on July 20, 2014 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/15): Let’s say that the SBU recordings are genuine and the NAF was directly responsible for shooting down MH77 on the mistaken impression that it was a (valid) military target. Should this then be classed as terrorism? Would it invoke NATO’s Article 5, as some of the most heated rhetoric is suggesting? (See http://www.spitsnieuws.nl/…/nederland-en-vs-bereiden-invasi…) Well, […]

The Fall of Slavyansk

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , was written by for on July 6, 2014 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/15): 1) The fall of Slavyansk is mainly a political problem, not a military one. In military terms, it is, if anything, a success, with Strelkov managing to successfully exfiltrate the great bulk of his forces from encirclement. 2) Donetsk has almost ten times the population of (pre-war) Slavyansk. Having aquired the great bulk […]

The “Anti-Terrorist Operation” in the Ukraine has been a Disaster

This about Politics, tagged , was written by for on May 17, 2014 .9 Comments

In a short piece I wrote on 11th April 2014 on my Facebook page under the the title “More evidence of the Ukrainian security forces’ refusal to carry out Kiev’s orders” I said: “A report I read on Novosti citing an anonymous but apparently senior source in Kiev suggested that the force deployed today in […]

The Donbass Referendum

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , , was written by for on May 11, 2014 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): Preliminary reports turnout is going to be high in Donetsk and Lugansk, with most people voting Yes to independence (though I’ve seen photos with a few No’s). I expected this (https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/465366857189310465) and it seems to have turned out correctly. Independence enjoyed 33% support in Donetsk and 25% support in Lugansk in opinion polls […]

Ukrainians on Federalism

This about Politics, tagged , was written by for on May 8, 2014 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): Comprehensive, very important PEW poll on attitudes in Ukraine towards federalism, Russia, Crimea (after Crimean referendum, but before the Odessa massacre): http://www.pewglobal.org/…/despite-concerns-about-governan…/ Two critical points can be made: (1) There is virtually unanimous support in Crimea for recognizing the results of its own referendum (only 4% are against). This indicates that that referendum […]

Massacre in Odessa

This about Politics, tagged , , was written by for on May 5, 2014 .85 Comments

Russia’s Channel Odessa has done a real piece of investigative journalism on the Odessa massacre. It appears to show that the street fighting in Odessa that preceded the massacre bore the hallmarks of a carefully staged provocation in which sections of the police and of the local authorities were actively involved. It shows that the […]