Why Constitutional Talks in the Ukraine Should Start Now

This about Politics, tagged , was written by for on April 22, 2014 .58 Comments

The US, Kiev, their EU allies and their media echo chamber are up to their invariable game of rewriting last week’s Geneva Statement to mean not what it says but what they want it to say. To repeat the Geneva Statement contains NO time line (see my previous post where I discussed what the Geneva […]

Deconstructing the Result of the Four Party Talks

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , was written by for on April 18, 2014 .9 Comments

The media refers to the document that emerged out of today’s four party talks as an “agreement”. This is not strictly correct. The text of the document is here: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-diplomats-meet-in-geneva-in-bid-to-ease-crisis-live-coverage?view=desktop#block-5350089ce4b056a9012cda6f As its text makes clear what this document is in reality is not an an agreement to settle the Ukrainian crisis or even an outline […]

Russian Federation Sitrep 2014.04.17

This about Politics, tagged , , , was written by for , on April 17, 2014 .5 Comments

KIEV ATTACKS. On Tuesday what remains of Kiev’s army, accompanied with threats of destruction, entered two eastern cities, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. The soldiers soon switched sides (or as they say in Kiev “Russian terrorist sabotage groups have been captured six units of armored vehicles”), up went the Russian flags and St George ribbons and the […]

Russia’s Game Plan in Donbass

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , , was written by for on April 14, 2014 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): Quick piece I scribbled off for RIA: First off, an elementary observation: Donbass is not Crimea. Crimea features prominently in Russia’s historical memory, having undergone two epic sieges over two centuries. It was only given over to Ukraine as a pure formality, to mark 300 years since the Treaty of Pereyaslav that was […]

My Advice to the Maidan

This about Politics, tagged , was written by for on April 13, 2014 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): I’m not a Euromaidan supporter. But if I was, and was interested in the junta’s success and a smooth transition to an EU-orientated Poroshenko Presidency… –> First of all, it has to be realized that Ukraine is weakest precisely in the short-term. An election would give Poroshenko a democratic mandate to carry him […]

Russian Federation Sitrep 2014.04.03

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for , on April 3, 2014 .43 Comments

  THE FUTURE OF UKRAINE. The Ukraine of six months ago no longer exists; it has been destroyed by the scheming of Brussels and Washington. If there is to be something on the map named “Ukraine” at the end of the year that in anyway resembles what was there six months ago, Moscow’s plan must […]

Was Crimea Worth It?

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , , was written by for on April 2, 2014 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): Was Crimea worth it? [editorial tone – neutral/objective] Pros * Secures major Black Sea naval base; Ukraine no longer able to link it to gas discounts. * Demonstration that Russia still counts to putsch leaders, pro-Russia elements in S/E Ukraine, and the West. From a realist, non-sentimental perspective, it’s better to be feared […]

Russian Federation Sitrep 2014.03.20

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for , on March 20, 2014 .23 Comments

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 20 March 2014 PUTIN SPEECH. After the referendum (by the way, perfectly normal numbers for this sort of thing see Falklands Islands, Kosovo and others) the process of re-joining Russia has begun – Putin’s speech here. One of his points was the illegality of Khrushchev’s transfer in 1954 “What matters now is […]

Five Myths about the Crimean Referendum

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , was written by for on March 16, 2014 .49 Comments

As voting gets underway – and by all accounts, it seems to be overwhelmingly heading for the pro-secession choice – it’s worthwhile to dispel four common but erroneous beliefs about it. (1) The referendum is unconstitutional. This is true enough, as all of Ukraine would have to vote on it. But there is one big […]

After The Referendum

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 15, 2014 .13 Comments

If, as seems to be generally expected, tomorrow’s referendum in Crimea produces a substantial majority in favour of union with the Russian Federation, what will Moscow’s reaction be? I strongly expect that it will be…… Nothing. There are several reason why I think this. One is that Moscow is reluctant to break up states. I […]

Russian Federation Sitrep 2014.03.13

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for , on March 13, 2014 .3 Comments

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 13 March 2014 Propaganda. Watch for these news items in your local media outlet to indicate when it stops re-typing and starts reporting. Who is what in the new govt in Kiev; the sniper story; General Dempsey has no evidence the soldiers in Crimea are Russians; what the treaty allows Russia to […]

What If?: Ukraine vs. Russia

This about Geopolitics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 9, 2014 .No Comments

Reprinted from Facebook (2018/02/14): I’m almost certain it won’t happen, but it’s always fun to consider these what-if military scenarios. Namely, Ukraine vs. Russia. In terms of numbers, it will be about 100K vs 150K – Russia has more, of course – 300K in the ground forces – but can only devote a certain percentage of its […]