… has seemingly occured in the blink of an eye, and has given way to an emerging four party system.
There was one brief period during the early 2010s when it looked like the Lib Dems might finally break out as the third “party of power.” However, that uptick ended up as a damp squib after they ended up betraying their student supporters by voting with the Conservatives for university tuition fee increases.That did them in for the next few years.
But now they have catapulted themselves back into the limelight as the party of pro-Remain yuppie cosmopolitans – students, hipsters, Londoners; while the eponymous Brexit party is the party of the rooted folks of Deep Albion. Meanwhile, the two century long mainstays of British politics – the Conservatives and New Labour – are struggling to remain relevant, as with centrist parties most everywhere else in Europe.
I’d wait for the general election before declaring the big parties dead or even wounded. It’s possible, but that first past the post system is pretty tough.
Brexit Party will collapse the moment Farage’s honeymoon is over. He is pushing race-blind liberalism. He has openly stated he wants MORE black immigrants to the UK and from the commonwealth (read: Nigeria, Pakistan, Jamaica, etc). Go to any of his election rallies: mostly middle-aged white people. BTW, polls for brexit show that support for the EU is much, much stronger among the youth.
It is often said that the young are more liberal than the old but this is not true. Young Italians are not more pro-EU than the boomers and neither are French. But the inter-generational chasm in the UK is huge.
There are also structural reasons why dislodging the 2-party system is very hard. First past the post doesn’t favor a splintered parliament. The Libdems, clever as they are, tried to push for an AV referendum and got their wish but the people said no. AV would have transformed it to a more German model with equal representation but FPTP is better for stability. You got a much higher share of seats than your vote if you are able to sweep large parts of rural England, for instance.
TL;DR Farage is a backstabbing cuck á la Trump whose party will fold faster than a cheap suit. He has tons of charisma, but his shitty policies will come back and bite him. 2-party system is structurally aided by FPTP over several election cycles.
Its the battle of the ‘i’m alright jacks’ …those who arent slipping behind, who are, or have been made to believe they are, benefitting from globalism, and the losers, those who have seen 25 years of stagnant or falling real wages and a decimation of skilled, middle income jobs.
Ironically, the Brexit party under Farage promises to replicate a free trade, open borders relationship with the hordes of Eastern Europe, with a free trade, open borders relationship with the far larger, far poorer, far, far more hostile hordes of the third world.
Those seeking freedom from the EU think they are getting one thing when they are actually getting something quite different, something far worse.
Most Western societies are run by two-party centrist systems. When a third party, or a new party of some kind, is allowed to grow and reach power it is usually in order to do some dirty job that the established parties find hard to do, but the elite wants. Liberals in UK, Greens in Germany, Macron, Cuidamos in Spain, etc… they are allowed to prosper for a reason. Libs in UK were needed to deliver on university tuition, Greens in Germany on aggressive foreign policy (remember the Green bomber, Joschka Fisher?), Macron has failed so far.
In a way, Trump (as a quasi ‘third party’ in US politics) is used to do the same, he might simply delivered more globalism, more migrants and open borders, and some foreign policy goals that can only be done a perceived outsider.
The two centrist parties are the traditional court. They are respectable, predictable, mostly about personal careers, but they are incapable of delivering on some things that elite occasionally needs. So outsiders are brought in, and allowed to do the dirty job. Demonising these outsiders is also a part of the picture – it makes it easier for the elites to pretend that they are not involved, and much easier eventually to get rid of them. Mulatto does his job, mulatto can go.
That graph shows the two party system doing fine unless one clicks on it. You might want to fix that.
Farage is indeed a strange fruit.
https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1133416570917666825
Heard on the London Alt Right grapevine: The guy tapped to write his biography wrote a very nice biography about one of the Far Right dictators.
I think that has a trivial explanation. Italian boomers associate the EU with convergence gibs and Il Sorpasso. Younger ones with poverty and brain drain.
The UK looks like it’s about to undergo the sort of political shift Canada underwent in the 1990’s. Canada too uses the same electoral system as the UK, so the example holds water.
Misleading headline what he actually said is quite different.
He was theoretically pointing out this would be the case.
What was really interesting was the Brexit Party hoovering up more than fifty percent of the across the Labour heartlands in Northern England. The next election could be very interesting.
Political realignment (in Britain as in the USA) is necessary but the treachery of Cucks is boundless. If one wants true progress the Cuck sentiment must be totally, unyieldingly suppressed. We are all so far from that.
And one of those parties is basically Nigel Farage. Good for him. He deserves to be a political party unto himself. It’s kind of shocking how he can have so much political impact and yet could never get himself elected to parliament anywhere.
It would be impossible to do, meaning it is not a serious response by Farage.
UK had 20k non-whites in 1950. The claim in 2011 was that it is still 87% white and there are 8 million non-whites. And yet officially primary schools are 31% non-white – something doesn’t add up. It is more likely that UK has 10-12 million non-whites and they are heavily over-represented in younger child-bearing age groups.
A simple chain-migration model suggests that at a minimum 250-300k new arrivals would come in each year based just on marriage and direct relatives. In reality, probably almost twice as many are admitted via a multitude of business-student-overstay visas. The source population is around 3 billion, so the potential is enormous. Adding 2-3 million new Third World migrants every 10 years means that – with their children – they will be a majority by 2050, and an effective majority (among 15-55) in less than 15 years.
What Farage says is evasive nonsense. Short of addressing it head on, UK will not be a European country. EU is not meant for non-European countries (see Turkey).
The country splits Somewhere vs Anywhere – see David Goodhart’s great book or any summary thereof. The Road to Somewhere: The Populist Revolt and the Future of Politics.
That split actually applies in most of Europe, though he doesn’t make the point in the book. But listen to any political punter or politician, they have all read that book, accepted its conclusions, but they use different language to make the same points.
Brexit is a classic point where Somewhere and Anywhere diverge.
And the Euro Elections were almost entirely seen in Britain as a mini referendum.
Farage/Brexit party is the way to vote for Brexit.
Lib/dem MPs are the only ones in England or Wales who dare tell their constituents that they’d vote against any Brexit despite the 2016 referendum.
So Brexit = Brexit party, remain – lib/Dem.
That is not to say that a parliamentary election party would go the same way at all. They’d be much more interest in other policies. Meanwhile if Brexit actually happens, all the recently elected Euro MPs are all out of a job at once.
(And obviously just because the Pollsters asked about intentions for the next Parliamentary elections (3 or 4 years time if not called early), you can expect the polled to answer the actual question and not the EuroMP election question instead).
I think the race-blind allegation is misleading – probably because anyone not pro-Brexit automatically assumes it is all about race and not migration, so think they can score points with race.
It seems Farage wants selective immigration based on skills, not blanket immigration based on economic incentives. I’m sure Karlin would approve.
Farage is saying he would end chain migration and other immigration loopholes thus cutting immigration down to negligible levels. He has frequently criticised immigration.
Chain migration is not a ‘loophole‘, it is a feature of the system. How can you tell people who to marry? How can you keep families from ‘reuniting’? How can you keep people from inviting their relatives to ‘visit’? Think about it – no rules based system can change it once the critical mass of migrants is in place. In UK there is already a critical mass.
Farage presumably knows this (he is a smart man), so when he says he would end it, he is lying.
Macron’s job was to salvage the situation for the elite after the two main centrist parties had failed.
https://abload.de/img/juppenistftbruq8.png
Juppe’s failure was France’s Brexit/Trump moment in 2016.
That is why Macron is president.
Yep. I can recall predictions being made that UKIP would win fifty seats in the 2015 general election, based on their good performance in the previous European Parliament elections. In fact UKIP won one seat. I expect that pattern to be repeated for the Brexit Party.
The British, like the Americans, have an electoral system specifically designed to maintain an absolutely rigid two-party system.
Unfortunately true. What the Brits haven’t figured out is that their real enemies are in Whitehall, not Brussels. Since WW2 their own governments and their own native elites have trashed British society.
If Brexit happens Britain will become even more of a Third World hellhole.
One big problem is candidates. Who wants to be the local Brexit Party candidate? Unless they can find quality candidates, they won’t go anywhere, even if the alternatives are unappealing.
the underlying tectonic plates are explicit globalist vs (mostly implicit) nationalist.
if we assume that’s true for the sake of argument that would make him exactly the same as the rest of the UK political-media class.
so if we assume the only difference is they’re all europhile cucks while he’s an atlanticist cuck then from an inter-nationalist pov the critical factor would be what effect pulling Britain out of the EU would have on continental populists – would it be good for them or bad?
probably good imo – as the EU’s center (France/Germany) is already crumbling and Brexit might help to push it over the edge.
Agreed. That is a major problem in more ways than one. Minor parties often end up fielding candidates who are either totally inept at dealing with the media or are outright cranks. They say very silly things which the media then latch onto to discredit their party.
The candidates are also often unreliable and even treacherous. If elected they will change parties if they get a better offer. Certainly in Australia this has been a huge problem for minor parties.
On balance I think atlanticist cucks are more dangerous and more contemptible.
I sort of agree, but Brexit disrupts the EU in many ways, so I’m not sure what to think.
On the other hand, the UK with its strong Brexit movement was a disruptor inside the EU, and Brexit means that now the Eurocucks can rule supreme. Orbán’s recent problems probably at least partly stem from the fact that without the UK, Eurocucks are stronger in the EP.
Certainly both sides have advantages and disadvantages.
The bad candidates would be less of a problem in a proportional system, where you’d be voting for party lists: here, the charisma of the top candidate (in this case Farage) would be the most important thing. Whereas in the case of the UK system, you have to vote for the candidates themselves, and so a stupid local candidate could lose even if his party is well liked. And anti-system parties find it hard to field strong candidates, because smart upper middle class people don’t want to be associated with them, lest they hurt their careers. This is the result of MPs being paid shitty salaries and not having job security.
A system where disruptive parties could enter would pay MPs very high salaries, and even if they drop out the next election, they’d be provided nice pensions for the rest of their lives. Of course no one wants such a system. Probably even I wouldn’t want it either, once all my favorite policies enjoyed solid bipartisan support from both establishment parties. It’s just that it’s not democratic.
Merkel opening the EU’s borders proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the EU elite are actively trying to erase Europeans – no other faction can be worse than the EU elite, equally as bad is the lowest you can go.
since Merkel opened the EU’s external borders i think it’s become pretty clear the EU’s aim is the physical extinction of Europeans (kalergi plan etc) and so anything that weakens the current EU leadership is good but different people may come to a different judgment on whether Brexit strengthens or weakens that leadership.
for me what tips it is France especially is already teetering on the brink – if Macron and Merkel were fully secure then i might think different.
The British ruling classes are in a league of their own when it comes to hatred of their own country and especially a burning virulent hatred for their own people. When it comes to evil Merkel doesn’t even come close.
I don’t think so. These kinds of international elites have no problem at all with white Europeans if they’re rich white Europeans. I think that claims of white genocide, physical extinction, etc, just make immigration restrictionists and nationalists look like nutters.
It seems pretty clear that the actual aim is the cultural extinction of distinctive European identities. Instead the aim is to create a society of rootless cosmopolitans with no cultural identity at all.
Of course what we will end up with is not utopia but a gigantic shopping mall filled with morons avidly consuming American trash culture.
Dystopias are always created by people who thought they were building utopia.
Primary purpose, look it up, there are plenty of things that can be done.
Primary purpose is a subjective concept. It is impossible to tell people who to marry – they care more, you don’t, they will eventually prevail.
Bringing 10-12 million Third Worlders to Britain was an error on par with bringing millions of slaves to America. Some of the same people did both. What is it in anglo DNA that makes them repeatedly sell their own for a short-term benefit?
obviously not
genocide: “inflicting conditions of life intended to destroy in whole or in part a racial or national group.”
the slave traders weren’t anglo
the slave buyers were mostly anglo
Another problem for the Brexit Party in recruiting potential candidates is that they will be targeted in their communities by the EUphiles. I don’t just mean humiliating milkshake attacks and the like, but also possible blacklisting (employment, business, social stigma, etc) in the future. Even their families will be subjected to harassment or worse with the EUphile media and other powerful forces in British society openly encouraging it.
Ya, and look where that’s gotten us!