I would like to take the opportunity to highlight my discussion with Noah Carl the prospects of each side in the Ukraine war.
My basic thesis is summarized in this thread:
Yesterday's podcast with @NoahCarl90 on the Ukraine War.
My case is as things stand, a prolonged stalemate is programmed, assuming continued Russian mobilization prevents Ukrainian victory, and the materiel balance doesn't shift sharply to either party.https://t.co/DaCBjRh9XN
— Anatoly Karlin (@powerfultakes) January 9, 2023
Most everything I said there still applies as of March 20, with the exception that I’m now somewhat more bearish about the prospects of Ukrainian offensive success, which just goes to further confirm the “long stalemate” thesis that can only be broken by an OOM-scale increase in NATO supplies or the implementation of a war economy to and by Ukraine and Russia, respectively.
Regarding the Ukraine War, other media appearances on this topic I have done this year to date include an interview and a round table with Mazarin Geopolitics, the latter including a couple of pro-Ukrainian Russians with rosy expectations of Ukrotriumph that have yet to materialize, and more recently, a discussion with the podcasting duo Russians with Attitude, where I conversely took on the role of dampening Z expectations.
