Russia’s still quite low, though now rapidly expanding, number of cases has predictably provoked the Western media into a slew of headlines about how the Putler regime is supposedly suppressing information on what must, by now, be a raging epidemic:
- Russia’s coronavirus count under scrutiny as Putin government denies hiding cases
- Russia Says It Has Very Few Coronavirus Cases. The Numbers Don’t Tell the Full Story.
However, as of today (March 19) – with 199 confirmed cases, and one death, a 79 year old woman with a host of chronic ailments who died in the past 24 hours – Russia’s low death/case ratio thus far parallels that of the more functional countries that are as of yet in the early stages and/or have contained the epidemic. Russia has performed 122,854 tests as of March 18 – in per capita terms, that’s about as much as Taiwan, France, or Canada, not to mention three times as much as the US, where the epidemic is an order of magnitude more advanced. Consequently, despite having its share of issues – e.g. the first generation of COVID-19 tests developed by the Vector Research Center had low sensitivity relative to international analogues – we may still be reasonably sure that testing in Russia is relatively wide-coverage and conveys an accurate sense of what is happening.
Compare and contrast this is what is happening in the Ukraine. On March 16, a 33 year old woman from Chernivtsi Oblast, Ukraine died from COVID-19 complications, nine days after the appearance of symptoms. This was the second official death in that country following the death of a 44 year old man who had been abroad in Kiev oblast. According to various reports, the Ukraine has only performed 640 tests, putting it amongst Third World nations such as India and the Philippines in per capita terms. Needless to say, it is very hard to contain an epidemic with Corona’s high r0 and capability for symptomsless spread without extensive testing. Of these, 16 people were confirmed to be COVID-19 positive. That’s a death/case ratio of 12.5% – amongst countries with early stage epidemics, figures of over 5% are only observed in Sudan, Guyana, Guatemala, Algeria, Cuba, Indonesia, the Philippines, Iraq, Jamaica, Domina, and Bangladesh. More importantly, the median age of a COVID-19 casualty hovers around 80 years; a person in their 30s or 40s “only” faces a ~0.2-0.4% risk of death, relative to 10%+ amongst people in their 70s and older. For both of Ukraine’s official deaths to have been in these age groups either implies a most remarkable coincidence – or that there have already been dozens of undiagnosed deaths amongst the elderly.
Another comparison we can make is with Belarus. As a functional country, it has managed to perform 16,000 tests, of which 51 have come in positive. There are only 9.5 million Belorussians, relative to an estimated 37.5 million Ukrainians, which translates to a fourfold difference. There are millions of Ukrainian Gastarbeiters on temporary work contracts in the EU, including 70,000 in Lombardy, Ground Zero for Corona in Europe. Although it is true that large numbers of Belorussians have started going for guest work in the EU in recent years, it’s still on a much smaller scale than Ukraine, where this phenomenon has depopulated entire regions (e.g. a recent government estimate found that there were almost 30% fewer people than expected in Ternopil oblast relative to official Ukrstat projections). If Belarus, which tests widely, has four times fewer people in total, and perhaps 20 times fewer people working in the EU, but has nonetheless registered 51 cases, then the numbers for the Ukraine should be at no less than a thousand.
All of this suggests that Corona is already rapidly burning through the Ukrainian undergrowth and will explode imminently.
Unfortunately, I only see things getting worse from here:
(1) Unlike the Third World polities mentioned above, the Ukraine has a median age of 40.6 years, and 17% of the population is over 65 years old. This is well in line with the European standard. Its African-tier dysfunction isn’t going to be canceled out a Sub-Saharan African age pyramid, where the median age is 18 years and only 3% of the population is over 65 years old. Moreover, as in Russia, the “effective age” of Ukrainians will be even higher, since they suffer from a much higher incidence of risk factors, such as high smoking rates and poor cardiovascular health (the result of decades of alcohol abuse), relative to the developed OECD countries.
(2) Although Ukraine closed its borders on March 16, in the wake of most of the EU, it’s worth noting that – as anywhere else – it doesn’t apply to its own citizens. As the EU goes into an economic stall over the next few weeks, Ukrainian Gastarbeiters are going to be losing their jobs and flooding back into the Ukraine, strengthening an already raging epidemic.
(3) The Ukrainian healthcare system is perhaps the most dilapidated bar none in all of Europe. Though one can cite many figures, consider that regional Russian cities of 0.5-1 million people, such as Perm (520 units) and Irkutsk (633 units), have as many ventilators as all of the 450-480 units in the Ukraine. Now in fairness, another source claims that there are 3,500 ventilators in Ukraine. Even so, that’s still less than the 5,000 units in the city of Moscow in absolute terms, and more than ten times less than the 40,000 units in all of Russia. International comparisons: Belarus – 2,000; UK – 5,000; Germany – 25,000; USA – 160,000.
Sophisticated ECMO machines are used in the most extreme cases of viral pneumonia to provide direct oxygenation to the blood supply. There are just 5 ECMO machines in all of Ukraine. This is equal to the ECMO machine stock of a single standard Chinese hospital, which have been reported to typically have 50-60 ventilators and 5 ECMO machines each. For comparison, Russia has 124 ECMO machines. The US has 264 facilities that offer ECMO services.
(4) The human capital in Ukrainian hospitals may well be even more woeful than its lack of hardware. Would you want to be treated by “doctors” and “nurses” who burst out singing “Ukraine Is Not Yet Dead” when they find out they wouldn’t have to host Corona infectees?
In recent days, journalists and pundits have taken to pushing the idea of “flattening the curve” – that is, drawing out the epidemic over time in such a manner that everyone gets access to hospital treatment, thus lowering mortality rates from ~4% to ~1%. But the extent to which this will work is questionable even in countries with functional, well-stocked healthcare systems, since a true “surge” that sees a sizable percentage of the population infected over a few months could see even very good healthcare systems with plenty of spare capacity, such as Germany’s, overwhelmed by the sheer press of bodies. In Ukraine, the difference between the laissez-faire approach and “flattening the curve” may well be quite minor, given the very low capacity of their healthcare system in the first place. Their only hope, more so even than in the West, is to “crush the curve” outright, and yet thanks to the peculiarities of its economic model – sending millions of their youth to the EU, who in turn feed local purchasing power with their remittances – make that into an even more challenging undertaking for what is already one of Europe’s weakest states.
Consequently, there is a high chance that within the next few weeks, the Ukraine will emerge as one of Europe’s worst Corona hotspots.
Needless to say, I take no pleasure in reporting these unhappy statistics and conclusions. The Ukrainians have been duped into tying their fate to the goodwill of Americans and Europeans who never cared for their well-being beyond their role as cannon fodder against their Russian kinfolk, and who have themselves in recent days have taken up a stance of “sauve qui peut” even in relation to fellow Westerners. Ukrainians do not deserve to have their already collapsing demographics further ravaged on that account, and it is perhaps especially unfair that the brunt of the Corona death toll is likely to fall on the older, more urbanized, and more pro-Russian East and South.
It is not going to be good for Russia either, which shares a “turnstile” with the Ukraine in the form of the LDNR, where the elderly still cross the border to collect their Ukrainian pensions while well more than 200,000 locals have obtained Russian citizenships. While Moscow is currently in the most immediate danger, I would not be surprised if the focal point of the crisis shifts over to the Kuban over the next few months.
Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.
If you are new to my work, start here.
Your article is disturbing as it is, but the 33 year old woman in Chernivtsi probably didn’t die from Coronavirus:
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/648034.html
It was reported that at around 19:00 on March 16, a woman died in hospital with suspected COVID-19 died in the infectious ward of the Chernivtsi Regional Clinical Hospital. According to the press service of the Chernivtsi Regional State Administration, death occurred as a result of severe concomitant neurological pathology that was not associated with manifestations of coronavirus infection.
As I understand, there are not that many people who die directly from COVID-19, most die from comorbidities – of which there are a lot more in older people.
Incidentally, that’s probably (according to what I have read) the main reason for why the number of deaths in Germany is so low relative to its number of cases.
BTW, it’s not “suspected” COVID-19, that was definitely confirmed the day after her death.
Incidentally, third death in Ukraine today: https://tsn.ua/ru/ukrayina/v-ukraine-zafiksirovali-tretiy-sluchay-smerti-iz-za-koronavirusa-1511097.html
“Happily”, she was 56 y/o. Though that’s still unusually young.
A far more balanced article about the subject than Saker’s one.
A vatnik from Zhelenogorsk, Znamensky or Nalchik could write a more balanced article than the Saker tbh.
Is it within Russia’s means to support the healthcare system in Donbass, so that it doesn’t completely collapse? Perhaps I am vastly underestimating the capabilities of Donbass, but I don’t see how they can make it without Russian support.
Does Russian dead woman actually count? Vzglyad did a follow up, her artery ruptured rather than lung fluid did her in.
https://m.vz.ru/news/2020/3/19/1029707.html
Looks like Russian officials decided against registering her as virus caused death.
https://m.vz.ru/news/2020/3/19/1029755.html
What are the top 5 factors predicting explosive spread? My guess in descending order of importance:
Does Ukraine in March and April have at least factor #1 going for it?
Above #3, I’ll add universal wearing of masks It seems doing this alone can prevent the virus from spreading rapidly. Korea is commended for good state capacity while Japan is panned but the virus hasn’t spread rapidly in either. Is that evidence that universal wearing of masks is a silver bullet?
Anatoly, did you mean to write an additional sentence or two or three here?
BTW, how do you think that Ukraine would have looked right now (both in regards to the coronavirus and in regards to everything else) had Galicia and Volhynia* rather than Crimea and the Donbass seceded back in 2013-2014–with Yanukovych remaining in power in the rest of Ukraine and possibly being reelected in 2015 due to the smaller number of pro-Western voters remaining in Ukraine after Galicia’s and Volhynia’s secession?
*Note: Galicia and Volhynia probably wouldn’t have styled their exit from Ukraine “a secession” in this scenario but would have instead likely argued that they are the legitimate government of Ukraine due to the fact that Yanukovych has lost his right to rule the Ukrainian people on account of him brutally crushing and suppressing the Euromaidan protests. Ultimately, though, Galicia and Volhynia’s terminology in regards to this wouldn’t really matter since, in practical terms, their move would be a de facto secession from Ukraine in this scenario.
Ukraine willingly decided to commit national suicide, to feel sorry for people who are so collectively stupid is not possible. The best they can do now is have Yanukovych return, execute all the US arse lickers, and ban all globo homo cargo cult ideologies. Obviously they will do none of this, so they deserve everything coming for them. Dumb fucking morons!
It’s much too early to try and make political dividends based on who will and who will not be most responsible for helping Ukraine out of this pandemic. The final page has not yet been written about how it will effect Russia too. California has jut been placed on a total lock down with an estimated 56% expected to be infected within the next couple of months, that translates to 26.5 million! Hold on for a bumpy ride.
“It is not going to be good for Russia either, which shares a “turnstile” with the Ukraine in the form of the LDNR”
Soft response: Shut down the border with LDNR, and offer everyone on both sides increased pensions.
Hard response: Anschluss.
So, do you think every “Western” or “white” nation deserves to die? The policies of most of our nation states are far more suicidal than those of Ukraine. And in the case of prominent NATO states (e.g., US, UK, France) also far more harmful to other peoples.
It’s all right if you want to be a Russian nationalist, but cackling gleefully at the suffering of millions of people just because their government is made up of corrupt worms doesn’t make a good impression. Are the ordinary men and women of Ukraine any more responsible for their Poroshenkos than we are for our Clintons and B. Hussein Obamas?
F
I am not Russian, you can call me a white nationalist (internationalist is more accurate) if you want.
The people did the Maidan thing, they voted for their politicians that handed over their country to foreigners, they had no problem with that military protected gay parade. The ordinary people are responsible they can’t pass the blame elsewhere. The other post Western states fell under the US regime a long time ago, people in Ukraine had absolutely no reason to make their nation a US puppet when there was plenty of evidence of the anti white ideologies that destroyed those other nations.
Why did the gay parade need military protection if the people had no problem with it?
It was to show the people exactly what ideology it will now enforce, even with deadly force. Clearly the people are happy with this.
Correct, but comorbidities resulting in deaths caused by COVIS-19 involve the respiratory system such as pneumonia or cardiovascular system – not a neurological condition as in the case of this 33 year old woman.
If a 12 year old kid with leukemia died of leukemia and happens to have COVID-19 this death wouldn’t be due to COVID-19 either. But some Russians may write – “in Ukraine even 12 year old die from COVID-19.”
Ukraine’s high estimate of 3,500 is more realistic, given that Ukraine can make ventilators:
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/648408.html
Those are three separate things. Maidan revolutionary mayhem is fine, we need people asking for more not less. The elections are tricky, there were constraints but that’s the case in almost all democracies and in general people in Ukraine got what they wanted. So far so good.
But we can blame the Ukrainian people for standing aside as the country was turned over to the old-new oligarchs and foreigners, and as the crazy laws about language and history were passed. Also, the tolerance of the Ukrainian institutions and most people for bloody events like the air bombing own citizens in Donbas and the Odessa massacre can’t be forgiven.
I would be careful with schadenfreude, the ball can bounce in so many different ways. But Ukrainians made big mistakes and there are consequences for that. I hope relatively minor, but this can spin out of control. Germany after WWII suffered consequences, so did Hungary after WWI, and so will Western Europe for the massive failure of their open-borders migration policies. Future, after all, is mostly consequence management.
I have a few Ukrainian friends and they are starting to realise it; for no personal fault their families’ lives have been dramatically diminished. The universe demands harmony. I am not sure why, but it always works out that way.
Belarus might be doing many tests but it is fucked. Absolutely nothing is closed, all spread prevention is of personal initiative.
Why doesn’t Ukraine have a sub saharan pyramid? Given the poverty there, you would expect a younger population. Why do you think the population is so old?
More details confirm what I wrote:
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/648145.html
Coronavirus is not the cause of the death of a 33-year-old resident of Chernivtsi, since the fatality occurred from symptoms that are not inherent to the coronavirus, deputy chief doctor for medical work at the Chernivtsi Regional Clinical Hospital, Olha Snihuriak, said.
“The woman who died on April 16 in the infectious diseases unit of the regional hospital had a complex pathology of the nervous and endocrine system, as well as lung damage, but without pulmonary failure,” the press service of the Chernivtsi Regional State Administration quotes Snihuriak as saying.
At the same time, it is noted that already after the woman’s death, the hospital received the results of tests that confirmed the patient’s coronavirus.
“The cause of death is convulsive syndrome due to cerebral edema and, possibly, cerebral hemorrhage. The patient was taken to our department because she had a slightly elevated temperature, and her husband recently returned from Italy. We believe that coronavirus in this situation is concomitant pathology, he didn’t lead to death,” said Snihuriak.
In turn, the deputy head of the Chernivtsi Regional State Administration Natalia Husak added that the woman’s husband had a mild coronavirus at home, but did not contact the doctors. He took tests for COVID-19, the man feels good and is in self-isolation.
Don’t worry so much, Anatoly. Putin will lend a hand to the Ukraine. He always does.
This is what they say in Russia as well. Supposedly, corona was not the thing that killed the old woman. У нее “оторвался тромб”.
There seems to be a temptation to label corona-related deaths as something else.
Ukraine doesn’t have sub-saharan age pyramids because it isn’t a sub-saharan country – it’s very industrialised, urbanized and highly educated, like most of the ex-Soviet world. High birthrates require an illiterate shithole country, which the EX-USSR isn’t.
Ukraine is the shittiest basketcase in Europe, but it’s still Europe and solidly “second world”. Most of the ex-USSR has this weird socio-economic position – nearly as poor as the Third World, but with the human capital and dysfunctions of the First.
(And thanks to the Soviet industrial legacy, the commieblock countries are still much better-developed than “dynamic economies” like Thailand and have higher literacy rates than every Arab country)
There is a fertile ground for medical records manipulations as this virus sometimes increases victim blood pressure to very high numbers, even nearly up to 200 during course of disease. Naturally, such a high blood pressure coupled with high fevers often causes various kinds of heart/brain strokes too.
We don’t know what inherent symptoms of Corona are, it’s still a novel disease. There were reports of rare cerebral infection cases in Asia.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200308_07/
What we do know is that in severe cases Corona causes hypoxemia, significantly lowered white blood cell count and elevated blood pressure, which greatly exacerbate any comorbidity or secondary infection. In these cases fatality can be attributed to comorbidity (Germans only add respiratory failure fatalities towards Corona death toll) or to Corona (Italians count any death of a Corona positive patient). I don’t think that attributing all deaths of people in their 80s to Corona is right, but not counting people who die a few decades early due to chronic diseases deteriorating during a Corona infection doesn’t seem right either.
You’re right, but I encounter westerners who do this pretty much on a daily basis, including wrt Ukraine.
So, what we have as of today:
By Italian standards:
Ukraine – 3 deaths, Russia – 1 death.
By German standards:
Ukraine – 2 deaths, Russia – 0 deaths.
I agree with the Italian approach. Even the old people with severe comorbidities are still very unlikely to have died within the ~one month timespan that Corona was active in their systems.
it’s both possible that Russia handled Covid-19 well, but they’re also keeping their numbers somewhat private.
for lots of eastern europe, i’d ascribe their current virus situation to a combination of healthy resistance to globalism and better controlled borders, mixed in with less people moving in and out of the place. they just don’t get as much international travel as western europe.
Africa doesn’t seem to be affected. What if, God forbids, the corona-plague kills all “old white men” (men are more affected by women) and delivers the planet to Afreakans, women and minorities??
God would have a sense of humor.
A quite dark sense of humor. 😉
This is the first time I read this information. Are there sources?
This explains then why the German death rate appears so low despite the high number of cases.
Even if the person dies from a concomitant disease, it still may be indirectly caused by corona, i.e. the person might not have died if he didn’t have yet another disease on top of the old one further putting pressure on the body.
Are you serious? Are they at least closing the border and testing all entrants? This is a serious indictment of Lukashenko if they can’t handle this properly.
Probably true of many old people, but not necessarily true of younger people who die of other chronic conditions and who happen to have Corona, if those deaths have causes not linked ot Corona (i.e., cancers, ALS, etc.).
Ukrainians were not above ‘cackling gleefully’ at everything bad happening to the ‘Moskali’. Ditto, the ‘white’, ‘Western’ nations.
Maybe this is a chance to burry the hatchet with the Ukraine.
If Russia can keep the infection under control, as seems likely, then perhaps a certain amount of medical resources can be lent to the Ukraine. Even if it’s just testing, this is Russia’s chance to show the Ukrainians who their real friends are. Or maybe this collapses the Ukrainian state and Russia will be forced to send aid, doctors and security cadres.
Anyway the hydroxychloroquine is looking promising. I think we’re gonna get lucky and be deus exed out of this predicament with that stuff as a prophylactic. No more eating bats!
The only thing that I’ve gotten a good “cackle” out of lately is a Romanian who styles himself as a rootin tootin “Russophile”. Amazingly funny! 🙂
https://images.forwardcdn.com/image/335x/center/images/cropped/manray-122409-1425721202.jpg
“It’s all right if you want to be a Russian nationalist, but cackling gleefully at the suffering of millions of people just because their government is made up of corrupt worms doesn’t make a good impression. ”
By ‘worms’ you should type ‘Jews’.
Ukraine is run by Jews, period.
The fact that Ukrainians allowed Jews to gain that much influence is a sad reflection on their intelligence. I love Ukraine, and I’ve been there many times. However, the Holodomor and the history of Jewish predation within Ukraine are readily available to anyone who picks up a history textbook.
It is a truism that laughter is the best medicine that can cure many an illness. Laughter strengthens your immune system because it increases the production of antibodies in your saliva and in your bloodstream to stave off bacteria, viruses and parasites and combats depression as well as anxiety.
It is therefore very appropriate in the present circumstances. Please do not refrain to make us laugh by commenting regularly, even if you repeat yourself. It would help to combat the coronavirus.
Looks like things are picking up steam in the Ukraine. It’s up to 41 confirmed cases now.
I’m glad to oblige you. since you first revealed to us that you style yourself as a “Romanian Russophile.” It seemed like a very incongruous combination to me, as I’m aware of the 20th century propaganda wars between Russian and Romanian intellectuals vying for dominance in the former land of Bessarabia.
So far I haven’t been able to find anyone of any real stature to fill the shoes of such an individual, until I recently discovered a “Kasyan Bogatyrets”, a parish priest in Northern Bukovyna. His interesting if not checkered career can be viewed as a sort of mixed up journey of his loyalties to a Rusyn, then Ukrainian and finally a Russian national orientation, a mixed-up and comedic sort of soul. He was never really a “Romanian” patriot, but because Bukovina was a part of Romania when he was born, he’s listed a a “Romanian-Russophile.” I suspect that your background is equally checkered and perhaps, you’re even of what the modern world would label a “Ukrainian” ethnicity. I hope not! 🙂
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8B%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%86_%28%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%86%D1%8C%29%2C_1911.jpg/250px-%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8B%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%86_%28%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%86%D1%8C%29%2C_1911.jpg
Bishop Kassian Bogatyretz, another “Romanian-Russophile”?…
Relax, I am not, although I do not know what an ‘Ukrainian’ ethnicity would be. My wife’s grand parents had the family name Russu, a rather common name in Romania.
Ukraine has a Jewish president but the mix of oligarchs is no more dominated by Jews than are the ones in Russia. Putin is of course not Jewish but his longstanding business partner is. Jewish and Ukrainian interests can and do coincide at times (Austrian-era Galicia was a good example of this).
Ironically the head of one of the two pro-Russian opposition parties in Ukraine, Vadim Rabinovich, is also a Jew:
https://d39raawggeifpx.cloudfront.net/styles/16_9_desktop/s3/articleimages/bnePeople_Ukraine_Vadim_Rabinovich__For_LIfe_political_party_leader_wiki.jpg_7_Cropped.jpg
The borders aren’t closed, and they aren’t testing entrants.
You’re unfamiliar with the Belarusian system if you think indicting the president is even on the minds of the people.
So, your ethnicity derives from your wife’s line, sounds kind of Jewish to me? 🙂
A smart guy like you should be able to eventually figure out what the Ukrainian ethnicity is all about. Your great Hospodar Stephen III new who his Ruthenian subjects were, and they knew about him and praised his fairness in folkloric song, but I guess that’s another reason that he was “great” and you…
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4f/Humorstefan.jpg/220px-Humorstefan.jpg
Just told some Ukrainian friends to tell their parents to self-quarantine. Not at lot, but many a little makes a mickle.
Have to say, when I run the numbers, the estimates look frightening.
(RE = 1) = R0 x (1- i / N) EQUALS R0 = 3.5 EQUALS 1 = 3.5 x (1- i/32M) EQUALS i = 22.9M infected until herd immunity, which means at least 1.15 million serious cases, or up to double that if we go by the present Italian figures.
That’s an important factor to underline. I agree the weather is likely to be a major mitigating factor.
The Ukraine is shutting down all public transportation, already steps ahead of Russia on this. Either they know they have a big problem, or Russia is being slow.
“Hospodar” LMAO
Are you Ukrops incapable of using letter g?
It was written and pronounced Gospodar, g as in gray. This H faggotry of modern day Ukrops bothers me to an extreme degree, especially when it is applied retroactively.
A friend in Kiev just wrote me that everything is now shut down but supermarkets and drugstores. Even the subway.
I can assure you that in Romania the term was pronounced and written with an “H” sound, not “G” (and in other Slavic languages as well).
Take it up with your Shrink if you can’t handle reality – it’s your own Russian “retroactive” attempts at trying to modify reality that is clouding your ability to think properly.
No, it wasn’t you retard.
It is derived from Gospod/Lord.
The way Ukrainians translated G into H is modern faggotry.
There was no Romania in Middle Ages, neither was there a Romanian language, the liturgy was in Church Slavonic, and the vocabulary was much more Slavic than it is today.
Vojvoda/voivode, razboj/razboi, boyar all attest to that fact.
All Serb aristocratic families intermarried into Wallachian and Moldavian nobility – Branković, Balšić, Lazarević etc. some still existing under those surnames in Romania.
The local rulers sourced Serbian clergy in 14th and 15th century.
Our Romanian friend can also attest to the very prominent surname Sarbi and the meaning of that word in Romanian.
Imagine – a Balkanoid insolently telling Slavs how to pronounce Slavic words!
“H” dates to the early 13th century in what is now Ukraine, Belarus and southern Russia. “G” derives from northern East Slavic dialects and was adopted into standard Russian.
In addition to Ukrainians, Czechs, Slovaks and southern Russians use “h” instead of “g”.
So it is not applied retroactively. Nor is it modern.
As for “Hospodar” :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hospodar
Yes, it was “Hospodar” in Moldavia, not “Gospodar.” Moldovans and Romanians are more Slavic than are Balkanoids to their South, so they use this word properly unlike you (at least, in terms of ruler).
It’s interesting that in Romanian the Latin term was adopted later while the original Slavic term used by Romanians was replaced by the Latin term. I wonder how much more Slavic the Romanian language was in the 17th -18th centuries? Have Romanians been Romanizing their language because they are the real Romans?
Are you people this retarded?
All Slavic languages are styled upon Church Slavonic, which is based on Old South Slavic, notably Macedonian Slavs around Thessaloniki on whose language St Cyrill and St Methodius based their codified language.
From there, it spread through the missionary work to rest of Slavs.
Along with Glagolitic script.
Similarily, Cyrillic script spread from Ohrid to rest of Orthodox Slavic world.
For the reasons mentioned above, all early Slavic writings are extremely similar.
Please tell me how East Slavs created letters and pronounciations,
and how “insolent” Balkanoids didn’t. Unbelievable.
PS: I am very interested in your source on medieval pronounciation in Moldavia.
You are wrong. Merriam-webster:
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hospodar
Romanian, from Ukrainian, from hospod’ lord, master; akin to Old Slavic gospodĭ, gospodinŭ lord, master
As I wrote in my other post, G to H shift occurred in Ukraine in the early 13th century. It was adopted in Moldova from there. There is nothing modern about it.
More:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boyars_of_Wallachia_and_Moldavia
he boyars of Wallachia and Moldavia were the nobility of the Danubian Principalities of Wallachia and Moldavia. The title was either inherited or granted by the Hospodar, often together with an administrative function.
Britannica:
https://www.britannica.com/place/Greece/The-Phanariotes#ref292654
The most important posts held by Phanariotes were those of hospodar, or prince, of the Danubian principalities of Moldavia and Wallachia. Phanariotes ruled those potentially rich provinces as the viceroys of the sultans, and their luxurious courts in Jassy (now Iași, Romania) and Bucharest copied on a lesser scale the splendour of the imperial court in Constantinople. Just as there was furious and corrupt jockeying for high office in the Orthodox church, the appointment of the hospodars was also accompanied by intrigue and corruption.
::::::::::::
Sorry, you have failed here.
I am supposed to trust Britannica and English wikiledia instead of just reading my native script and the letter in it?
Г г is not H.
Not in Medieval period, nor pronounced as Latin h in Slavic languages.
I genuinely don’t give a fuck about colonial historiography and their musings, I will never call black white, no matter the “consensus”.
And you know perfectly well that Kyiv is a failed transliteration as well. Weaponized “historiography”.
Slavic speech predated Church Slavonic. There where Slavic speakers in what is now Ukraine, Poland, and Belarus before Church Slavonic was created.
But thanks for the injection of Balkanoid Svidomism into the conversation.
Moldovan title was Hospodar not Gospodar. Shift from g to h occurred in Ukraine in the early 13th century (it occurred in Slovakia and Czechia a century earlier) so one can infer that it occurred in Moldova prior to the appearance of Hospodars, at least with respect to Slavic words..
This has been a subject of discussion before and, IIRC, it was shown that Ukraine is much more jewed than Russia.
Of course you’re correct here, especially in pointing out that the different oral languages of the Slavs (and Romanians) predated any related written languages. Perhaps, Epigon should inform all historians of Romania that they got it wrong? “Epigon knows Best.” 🙂
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/Mavrogheni_tron.jpg/220px-Mavrogheni_tron.jpg
Hospodar Nicholas Mavrogenes and the boyar council
Russia had 4 Jewish PMs, Ukraine has had one. Ukraine has a Jewish President, Russia never has had one. But to point out, Putin has been very close to Jewish businessmen in St. Petersburg.
As for oligarchs:
Ukrainian billionaires:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ukrainians_by_net_worth
(Poroshenko is not a billionaire anymore, but he isn’t Jewish either)
Russia has many more than 7 billionaires. Now look at Russia’s richest 10:
(#11 and #12 are Jews also)
Overall, not much of a difference.
Some tests are being done but very few, a formality at most. Borders still open
His birth name is actually Vadim Rudolfovich Malkhasyan. Could he be a German-Armenian rather than a Russian? (Obviously he was born in Russia, but I’m talking about his ethnicity here.)
“Now it is our turn to push the button that makes gibs!”
Sure looks like it’s run by Jews.
Can you elaborate on the last sentence?
It was definitely pronounced ‘Gospodar’. In Romanian is a common term:
‘gospodar (plural gospodari) = householder; master of the house or head of a household, a good manager or someone who is in charge (om gospodar, bun gospodar)
‘gospodină (plural gospodine)=housewife.
‘Gospodărie’ (plural gospodării)= house, household, farm.
The title of Stephen the Great was : ‘Voevoda i Gospodar zemli moldavskoi’ in documents redacted in Slavonic, ‘Wayvoda et Dominus Terrae Moldaviensis’ in documents redacted in Latin.
The Walachian princes bore the same title.
The word for ruler, the title, was Hospodar but the word for head of household is gospodar. I wrote:
“Yes, it was “Hospodar” in Moldavia, not “Gospodar.” Moldovans and Romanians are more Slavic than are Balkanoids to their South, so they use this word properly unlike you (at least, in terms of ruler).”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hospodar
The rulers of Wallachia and Moldavia were styled hospodars in Slavic writings from the 17th century to 1866. Hospodar was used in addition to the title voivod. When writing in Romanian, the term Domn (from the Latin dominus) was used. At the end of this period, as the title had been held by many vassals of the Ottoman Sultan, its retention was considered inconsistent with the independence of the United Principalities’ (formalized from Romania only in 1878 — replacing the tributary status). Hospodar was therefore discarded in favour of Domnitor or, in short, Domn, which continued to be the official princely title up to the proclamation of the Kingdom of Romania in 1881, (which did not include Transylvania until 1918).
In Romanian gospodar (female: gospodină) means a good manager of a household or a property (gospodărie).
Lukashenko has such a hold on this country that it doesn’t matter how many lies he tells or how much money he funnels out of the country to various Middle-Eastern allies, nothing short of a Ceausescu scenario is going to remove him from power any time soon.
Romanian irredentist political writers like to cover up any possibility of a Ukrainian (Ruthenian) imprint on Moldavian history. Admitting that the titles Hospodar and Voievode were ones that were borrowed from the Ukrainian territories north would belye the later development of the Romanian language:
https://pure.uva.nl/ws/files/1531434/126251_thesis.pdf
Romanian historians, irredentists or not, as well as many others, know that the old documents were written in Slavonic, which was the language of the Church and the official language of the Vlacho-Bulgarian Tsardom. It was based on a south-slavic dialect. All slavic literature is derived from the South.
They were not written in any ‘Ukrainian’ language. Maybe there have been Ruthenian influences, but they are late. The title ‘Hospodar’ appears in external documents, and as remarked only since the 17the century. All internal documents have ‘G’ospodar. The term disappears from the internal diplomatic, which became Romanian, from the 17th century onward, when is replaced by ‘domn’, which is also the polite formula of address for ordinary people: domnul/doamna (lord, sir, lady) X,Y,Z; dumneavoastră=domnia voastră.
Your ‘halychian’ dreams are just that, dreams, a reflection of the Austrian induced mentality that Bucovina and Galitia represented an oasis of ‘Western European civilization’ in the middle of Valachian and Russian Balkano-Asian barbarism.
Good night and sweet dreams.
The language of the Chancellery in Moldavia used a Slavic language based on both a South Slavic and Ruthenian idioms. You wont deny that a lively interaction occurred between the Galician Orthodox and Moldavian Orthodox churches during the 14-th 15-th centuries? During the earliest period of the Moldavian polity, much was incorporated from Galician bookmen as far as writing protocols were established, as in a later period a beautiful form of book embellishment was transferred back to the Galician and Volhynian churches from the Balkans via Moldavia. This is what’s called cross cultural interaction:
file:///C:/Users/Anatol/Downloads/Early_Modern_Belarus_Russia_and_Ukraine_Culture_and_Cultural_Relations_anhl.pdf
Historical Dictionary of Moldova
By Andrei Brezianu, Vlad Spânu
pg. 178
HOSPODAR – A Slavic term used to denote the prince of Moldova
GREAT SOVIET ENCYCLOPEDIA
Aleksandr Mikhaĭlovich Prokhorov – pg. 450
“In 1456, during the reign of Hospodar Petru Aron (1454-1457)..”
România: The Land, the History, the People – Page 23
Valerian D. Trifa –
They had the title of prince (or Hospodar)
Documentele latine de cancelarie din Moldova, secolele XIV-XVIII: studiu lingvistic și stilistic
https://i.imgur.com/DutCJyJ.png
Did you see the first letter, “Seraphim”?
Here is a source from 1724.
Hospodarus with an “H”.
::::::
So to recap: Epigon provided the stupid idea that replacing “g” with “h” was a modern phenomenon, when in reality the shift occurred in the early 13th century. And you provided the idiocy that “Hospodar”, the noble title, with an “H”, wasn’t a word in Moldova.
Aaron ‘hospodarus’ is not Petru Aron of 1476, but Aaron Vodă Tiranul (the Tyrant) of 1592-95. Late. As the one from 1724.
The entry from Soviet Encyclopedia is irrelevant.
But as I say, n ever let truth stand in the way of a good story.
You wouldn’t recognize the truth if you tripped over it and fell straight on your face.
Here, taken from an original Chancellery document, it’s plain to see that Stephen III was referred to as “Hospodar” with an H sound:
https://www.readcube.com/articles/10.14232%2Fphd.2459
I could not actually copy/paste the portion of the document (1433) that refers to Stephen III as “Hospodar” but you can see it for yourself on page 41.
This study is quite interesting and is 272 pages long and the subject matter includes the discernment of the language used in Moldavian Chancellery documents – highly recommended!
Thanks. I thought he tended to be positively regarded, like a lesser Putin.
I looked at it with a magnifying glass. The document is written in Church Slavonic where Гг (гэ/глаголь) is ‘g’ as in ‘good’. To read it ‘H’ it should have been a Хx/Kha.
Why? Did you need a magnifying glass for the rest of the article? Or were you being dramatic?
Looks like it has Ruthenian influences. Letters are often different but”pysaty” (second line from the bottom of the Slavic text) is the exact same as in modern Ukrainian.
If the Slavic speakers were like southern Rus people (almost certain in Moldova, given its geographical proximity and extensive cultural links with Galicia) by the 15th century they would be pronouncing “Г” as “H” because the shift had occurred centuries earlier. Even if they were doing so in Church Slavonic.
Different sound. And again, in the areas where the shift from “G” to “H” occurred in the early 13th century, the pronunciation of “Г” changed, the letter itself did not. *
And this is reflected in how foreigners transcribed this word when they used the Latin alphabet. Those Moldovans were “Hospodars” not “Gospodars.” Visitors using the Latin script just wrote it down in the way that they heard it.
As in this old document that you ignore because you ignore reality:
https://i.imgur.com/DutCJyJ.png
*It is like how in Russian “o” has shifted to “a.” Spelling has not changed. It is not written “Maskva,” “sabaka”, etc.
Here are Ukrainian kids reciting Church Slavonic:
At 3:21 you hear “hospody” with an H rather than a “G” sound. When the language has shifted that is how it naturally pronounced.
Now can you tell us why is this ‘problem’ so important as to engender such off topic angry discussions on a post that deals with the coronavirus in Ukraine?
You being wrong, as is often the case, is indeed a problem and highlighting it is important 🙂
Too bad for Epigon, he is correct more often. Well, everyone makes mistakes at times.
LOL-the person who proved he didn’t even know BASIC words in Russian like “mir” or “svet” or anything else that even a dumb tourist on a weekend trip to Saint Petersburg would probably know..then compounded that same mistake again and again,
is now trying to stupidly masquerade again as knowledgeable on this. HAHA!
You have absolutely no authority to speak on “Ukrainian” grammer-it’s pathetic. Even Mr Hack who I think witnessed your series of hugely self-discrediting posts on the topic (Polish – ukrop-Russian translation of words) would agree–just as soon as he removes his tongue from your a**.
I also remember the logic-defying clueless argument of “Ukrainians have names like petro and pavlo, Russian’s don’t”…. which idiot hasn’t heard of ex SP name of Petrograd, petropavlovsk, petrozavodsk and a million other derivative place names and surnames in Russia of those 2 names (2 of the most popular) LOL. That these familia and places of these names were a sign of formalisation in Russia only seeks to emphasis the non existence of any ykrop state in any of this time. Why you couldn’t have even guessed the high popularity of “Petro” and “Pavlo” naming in Russia – is a complete mystery.
For the record, Seraphim is 100 % correct on this again. The “13th century” theory is total BS. Your complete incompetence and lying actually links documents that prove the 17th century hypothesis of Seraphim. Typical khokholism- which has a noted history in misinterpreting documents and idiotic historical theories that nobody in the west even supports.
Pro-tip- obviously you’re full of s*** and the fact that the same form of the verbs and singular/plural that in the same forms go from “k” to “ch” and the “g or supposed h” goes to “ZH” in both Russian and ukrop only reinforces Seraphims point.
Zh is only a natural transition from G, not H or kh you dumny
LOL, so much butthurt whining from you. You were really triggered.
Thanks for the reminder. You had no clue that the word “mir” does not mean world in the Ukrainian language.
You also don’t know the Russian word for watch.
Thanks for proving that you don’t even know that the Russian version of Ukrainian Pavlo is Pavel and that the Russian version of Petro is Pyotr.
What other Russian words do you not know, failed pseudo-“engineer”?
:::::::::::::::
BTW, what caused you become trans?
The result would be a literal hell on Earth where vibrants spend the next billion years beating each other to death with leg bones and tree limbs.
Top kek to all those who still think we’re going to Mars.
You are just trolling, but the detailed discussion is here, from the German-Russian-Ukrainian linguist Shevelov:
http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/huri/files/vi_n2june1977.pdf
In Galicia, Pidljaja, and Transcarpathia-areas that were in direct contact with the Western nations using the Roman alphabet-one may expect to find direct evidence on the pronunciation of Old Ukrainian “g”: the Roman alphabet had two letters, g and h, in place of the one in the Cyrillic alphabet.
In Galicia, the Roman alphabet was rarely used prior to the Polish annexation, begun in 1349-1352. However, one does find Hryczkone ‘Gregor’ 1334, 1335 and more spellings with h occasionally ch after the occupation: Belohoscz GN Sandomierz 1356, Hodowicza PN 1371, haliciensis ‘Galician’ 1375, Torhowycze GN 1378, Rohagyn sic! GN, haliciensi, Drohobicz GN Rome 1390, Halicz GN Peremyl’ 1390.
Jan Parkosz, the author of a treatise on Polish orthography 1440, available in a copy of 1460 giving the names of letters in the alphabet used by “Rutheni,” called the fourth letter lahol..
Before the 1340s evidence is indirect, because “H” simply replaced “G” in speech but the letter was the same. However:
There are cases of foreign g being rendered as k: Vilikailb, Vykynib PN Hyp 1215, Lonbkogveni PN Hyp 1247 render Li Villegayle, Wigint-Lengvenis, respectively; in gércik-, gercjukb ‘duke’ from G Herzog Hyp 1235, 1252 k renders German g, while “g” stands for German h. In charters, Olkérta PN gen 1352 Volhynia?, Kediminoviöa PN gen 1363, area of Novhorod-Sivers’k render Lithuanian names Algirdas, Gëdiminas.’7 Ifaka in Hyp 1251 “i proide aku plënjaja” is based on Li àgas ‘haystock’, aginys ‘pale’,18 this is another in stance of substituting k for foreign g. Such substitutions make sense in a language that does not have g. Characteristically, they occur in entries of the thirteenth century. It may be inferred, therefore, that by 1215, g had changed into y.
This is to agree with John Regan. His unbecoming for you to cackle with glee over Ukraine’s supposed shortcomings.
If Ukraine remains hopelessly backward after three centuries of tutelage under tsars and commissars, why don’t you just LEAVE US ALONE? Why on earth would Alexander Dugan and others want to reincorporate such unworthy people in a reincarnation of the Russian Empire?
Now – with regard to the question at hand – coronavirus. The number of reported cases has jumped to 71 in Ukraine, those in Kyiv from 3 to 9 to 27 over the past three days. These are mostly, as Karlin suggests, citizens returning from Western Europe. Undoubtedly as a result of more testing more than an actual jump in cases.
Now to the positive. There does not seem to be much transmission within the country. Shutting down public transportation and schools seems to have done the trick. Ukrainians are a reasonably intelligent people (notwithstanding suppositions by the likes of Mr. Karlin) and they are generally observing the restrictions. Certainly better than in the massive refugee centers and no go zones of Western Europe.
Since we are all just guessing, I will offer my guess. The measures that Ukraine has taken will have the same effect that similar measures had in China, Korea, Japan and now even Italy. They will push r0 below one, the threshold at which in country transmission allows a virus to multiply. Just as with the East Asian countries, the caseload in Ukraine will plateau. Since the incubation period is a week or so, it should happen fairly quickly.
When I arrived in Ukraine from Washington DC 12 years ago the country truly did not know his identity. Russian was very widely spoken… I did not learn Ukrainian because it was not needed. The country has learned to distrust, even detest Russia over the past six years. This was unnecessary. It will be hard to reverse. We should be, as the Дргжби Народи monuments here still attest, brother peoples. It won’t work if Russians continue to belittle “little Russians” as hopeless fools.
This is to agree with John Regan. His unbecoming for you to cackle with glee over Ukraine’s supposed shortcomings.
If Ukraine remains hopelessly backward after three centuries of tutelage under tsars and commissars, why don’t you just LEAVE US ALONE? Why on earth would Alexander Dugan and others want to reincorporate such unworthy people in a reincarnation of the Russian Empire?
Now – with regard to the question at hand – coronavirus. The number of reported cases has jumped to 71 in Ukraine, those in Kyiv from 3 to 9 to 27 over the past three days. These are mostly, as Karlin suggests, citizens returning from Western Europe. Undoubtedly as a result of more testing more than an actual jump in cases.
Now to the positive. There does not seem to be much transmission within the country. Shutting down public transportation and schools seems to have done the trick. Ukrainians are a reasonably intelligent people (notwithstanding suppositions by the likes of Mr. Karlin) and they are generally observing the restrictions. Certainly better than in the massive refugee centers and no go zones of Western Europe.
Since we are all just guessing, I will offer my guess. The measures that Ukraine has taken will have the same effect that similar measures had in China, Korea, Japan and now even Italy. They will push r0 below one, the threshold at which in country transmission allows a virus to multiply. Just as with the East Asian countries, the caseload in Ukraine will plateau. Since the incubation period is a week or so, it should happen fairly quickly.
When I arrived in Ukraine from Washington DC 12 years ago the country truly did not know its identity. Russian was very widely spoken… I did not learn Ukrainian because it was not needed. The country has learned to distrust, even detest Russia over the past six years. This was unnecessary. It will be hard to reverse. We should be, as the Дргжби Народи monuments here still attest, brother peoples. It won’t work if Russians continue to belittle “little Russians” as hopeless fools.
Hitler is transliterated Гитлер in Russian, my grandma told me that Russian soldiers said “Gitler” despite having a proper h sound. (The Russian х is transliterated as kh in English, but I think the English transliteration is a bit excessive, because at least to my Hungarian ears it’s way closer to a normal h than to a k, and anyway certainly closer to the German h than the г.)
So while I don’t know anything at all about the issue, I think the argument about transliterations in the 13th century might be a weak one.
You can’t even take this article seriously from the beginning. He says that Russia has done 3 times as many tests per capita as the US? This is dead wrong and easy info to find. The US already has about as many confirmed cases as the number of tests Russia has done and the positivity rate in the US is about 14% so the US has done close to 1 million tests. At twice the population of Russia, that puts the US more than 5x the number of tests per capita than Russia. All this even assumes you can trust the numbers from Russia, a country that brags of its lack of transparency on several issues. This info is easy to find. This guy is bullshit!