Reprinted from Facebook (2017/12/31):
Geopolitically, 2015 will be crunch time for the Poroshenko regime. Short of massive Western support, a fiscal crisis is virtually certain.
How will Poroshenko deal with it? A new assault against Novorossiya can’t be excluded; military spending is rising to 5% of GDP. That’s higher than any industrialized nation bar Israel. Totally mad for semi-bankrupt country like Ukraine, unless it’s done for a specific, concrete purpose in mind. (The argument that it’sjust for defense against Russia is bogus. The DNR/LNR have no real offensive capability. The decision against invading Ukraine by Russia proper was taken back in April 2014 and since then the conditions for it have vastly deteriorated).
A new war can explain economic failure and provide a smokescreen for intensification of crackdown on pro-Russian dissent in Ukraine. Unfortunately, pensioners & laid off public workers are no match for neo-Nazi thugs when it comes to street brawls. The neo-Nazis are in control of the power ministries and they will remain well fed to the very end. The West will of course turn a blind eye to all this, feigning ignorance or insisting that they are marginal political forces.
IMO, there are two possible endings to the Euromaidan saga, which will actualize by next winter or 2016 at the latest:
Scen 1: With the junta’s popularity at all time low due to economic collapse, pro-Russian forces come to power. This can either come via a second Maidan (though I don’t consider that likely, to be honest – see above), or via Poroshenko making a turnaround to ward off attacks from nationalist and/or populist forces, either on the streets or amongst his elites. Poroshenko is more of an apparatchik than an ideologue so this is a real possibility.
Scen 2: Immiseration is ably countered with repression. Many dissenters and able-bodied Ukrainians leave for the EU or Russia, so you’ll have fewer opponents – both of the economic and ideological variety – on the streets. If the junta survives 2016, I am sorry to say but chances are it will then stabilize and begin to recover. That’s just the nature of things, sooner or later.
